Here’s what the Falcons will – and won’t – do this offseason
We offer proof that Sam Baker has occasionally held his own. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
The NFL scouting combine commences this weekend. Free agency begins next month. April brings the draft. Before the cutting and pasting begins, we offer semi-educated guesses as to what the Falcons will/won’t do.
They will keep Sam Baker. The website Pro Football Focus rated Baker the second-worst tackle in the NFL last season, but he wasn’t always so hapless. A lot of things had to go wrong to render a serviceable left tackle so ineffective, and a back injury was only part of it. The Falcons fired line coach Paul Boudreau, who had lost faith in Baker, and will give Pat Hill, hired as a replacement, every chance to rebuild Baker’s self-esteem.
They will rely on Hill to set a tone, and not just with Baker. Hill hasn’t worked in the NFL since 1996, but his aggressive approach as head coach — he dared to play Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime — put Fresno State on the map. This O-line could stand some prodding. It was revealing that the Falcons’ front couldn’t muster the required push on three infamous fourth-and-1’s. It also was revealing that Mike Johnson, a 312-pound guard taken in Round 3 in 2010 after playing at Alabama under a rather exacting head coach, never found favor with Boudreau.
They won’t trade up into Round 1. Owing to last season’s five-picks-for-Julio-Jones deal, the Falcons don’t have a first-round choice in 2012. General manager Thomas Dimitroff’s preference would be for this draft to play itself out and his organization to get back on schedule. Sure, he’d waver if Indianapolis called and said, “We’ll give you the No. 1 pick for Michael Turner.” But Indy won’t.
They will keep Michael Turner. The best-case scenario is that the Falcons will get one more big season from the big back, and logic holds that you should trade a guy one year too soon, as opposed to one year too late. But what sort of return would Turner, who’s 30, bring? Would you trade a 1,000-yard back for a fifth-round pick? Wouldn’t you be better served letting him work behind a retooled line under a new offensive coordinator who might actually direct a screen pass the big back’s way?
They won’t be crushed if Curtis Lofton leaves. The middle linebacker is a three-year starter and a fierce tackler, but there’s growing sentiment that he’s a liability against the pass. The question thus becomes: Would you pay $8 million a year for a two-down linebacker? At the right price, the Falcons would love to keep Lofton. If he does depart, they’d give Akeem Dent, the Georgia product taken in Round 3 last year, a long look in the middle.
They will slap the franchise tag on Brent Grimes. The Falcons could apply this tag, which allows a team to hang on to a free agent for another year at a much higher price, to any of several defenders — Lofton, John Abraham, Thomas DeCoud — but cornerback seems the area of greatest need. (And DeCoud figures to be more affordable as a long-term re-up.)
They won’t spend big to keep Abraham. Of the Falcons’ 33 sacks last season, he produced 9 1/2. But Abraham will turn 34 in May, and he has a history of injury. It’s scary to think that a team incapable of sustaining a pass rush would shed its best pass rusher, but remember what new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan after his hiring: “I’d rather have 10 guys get four sacks than four guys get 10.”
They won’t pursue Hines Ward. As much as the Falcons would welcome the locker-room presence of Ward, who’s from Forest Park and who played at UGA and who may be cut by Pittsburgh, there would have to be an on-field component to warrant such a hire. Ward will turn 36 next month, and he plays a position where speed is of some essence. As great a pro as he has been, he doesn’t have much left.
In the tradition of “urgent” and “explosive,” they will adopt a new watchword: “Daring.” In the neo-NFL, it would seem impossible for the 10th-ranked offense to oppose the 27th-ranked defense and to make no turnovers and miss no field goals and still not score a point. But that was the Falcons’ wretched lot in their playoff loss to New York, and there’s only one rational explanation: They played scared.
Mike Smith didn’t coach scared — he went for it on two fourth-and-1’s — but the message didn’t resonate. Matt Ryan threw 41 passes to no effect, and how in the neo-NFL can a big-time quarterback leave no imprint? Dirk Koetter, the new coordinator, has to render Ryan daring again. (It isn’t as if he was always risk-averse: He threw 19 interceptions in 14 games as a Boston College senior.)
For inspiration, the Falcons can turn to their nemesis. In 12 Saints-Falcons games, Drew Brees has thrown 11 interceptions, and that’s a fat number. His team, however, has won 10 of those games. The Falcons have allowed timidity to dilute their conspicuous talent, and that starts — and needs to end — with the quarterback. It’s time for Matty Ice to become Matty Fire.
By Mark Bradley
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254 comments Add your comment
Rickster
February 22nd, 2012
3:45 pm
First on page one.. first on page 3?
Rickster
February 22nd, 2012
3:46 pm
YES!
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
3:48 pm
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
2:59 pm
Assigning credit to Joe Flacco for Baltimore’s playoff success? Ha.
I’m pretty sure Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, and Ed Reed had something to do with those wins
____________________________________________________________
Tell Tom Brady Teddy Brusci won those superbowls…………………
Nice try………………..
Next excuse for FAILURE?
HA HA HA
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
3:50 pm
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
3:01 pm
Do you really think there’s that much value in a three game sample size, JSS?
Also, two of the teams the Falcons lost to won the Super Bowl, so it’s not like any other teams were beating them in the playoffs, either
_________________________________________________
If you beat those teams, then they don’t make the superbowl genius
Getting ZERO points out of your 72 million dollar investment is unexceptable……………
Next excuse?
HA HA HA
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
3:53 pm
Ted M
February 22nd, 2012
3:43 pm
Flacons will go 8-8 maybe 9-7 but they’ll have an excuse…Matt Ryan just needs a year or so to learn the new offensive coordinator.
____________________________________________
You know it!
HA HA HA
JSS
February 22nd, 2012
3:53 pm
Are you kidding me? If neither happens, then you fire the coach in first case because they don’t win in the post-season… In the second case, you “Dick Vermeil” the said coach and thank them for their service as you show them the door!
If you want to reward mediocrity, stay college football fans…
And three playoffs games in the modern NFL is way big enough of a sample! Mike Smith is not Bill Cowher (the last coach given this much leeway), and Cowher changed coordinators more than once, he was stubboen but he knew to cut bait. Don’t believe me? Go ask Neil O’Donnell, Kordell Stewart, and Tommy Maddox. It is a zero-sum game!
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
4:02 pm
Tom Brady’s offense was responsible for the following point totals in the Super Bowl: 13, 32, 20, 14, 17. Yeah, he was really lighting it up, CHOKE.
mark
February 22nd, 2012
4:02 pm
Choke looks like you turned off afternoon tv to make more stupid statements. What happen your mom tell you to clean up the basement so you turned off your tv and turned on your computer. Choke do you go to comic-con? Do you speak elf? Tell us more about yourself, your insights are so profound.
Delbert D.
February 22nd, 2012
4:03 pm
I guess I should be fired as a fan, because I sure lost faith in Baker.
JSS
February 22nd, 2012
4:03 pm
Oh, and this is the only time I’m going to address the mythical Ravens defense matter. With the exception of the Steelers championship game (Flacco gave them a short field at a vital time), the Ravens D have failed to stop opposing the Falcons, the Chargers, and the Patriots when given a lead late in games over the past two seasons. This is not and has not been the 2000 Ravens defense. Stop trying to sustain that lie…
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
4:07 pm
CHOKE has had 4 seasons………………….
He’s DONE
He’s TOAST
He’s OUT OF HERE……………..
Deal with it LOSERS
HA HA HA
Since Flacco is in negotiations for a long term new contract, your excuses are a moot point……………..
When is CHOKE getting that new contract?
Mark Bradley
February 22nd, 2012
4:08 pm
I believe that’s double first, Rickster. Double kudos.
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
4:10 pm
I suppose CHOKE also thinks Peyton Manning is a bum, too.
Rickster
February 22nd, 2012
4:13 pm
Woo hoo!!
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
4:13 pm
You neglected to mention, CHOKE, that Ryan’s rookie contract was for six years while Flacco’s was for five.
Dawgdad (The Original)
February 22nd, 2012
4:13 pm
MB, glass always overflowing! Hah!
Maybe they will take Stephen Garcia in the 6th rd and his presence will vault them to the SuperBowl or maybe he can just stay sober and draw a nice check sporting a baseball cap on the sidelines.
RIDE OR DIE FALCON FAN
February 22nd, 2012
4:15 pm
NO MATTER HOW GOOD OR BAD THE BIRDS ARE GOTTA GO WITH EM. I AM BORN AND RAISE ATLANTA FED. WHEN I DIE I’LL BE ATLANTA DEAD. BURY ME IN THAT THAT SWEET GEORGIA CLAY. WIN LOSE OR DRAW I’LL CALL IT A DAY. GO FALCON!!!!!!!!!!!!
invictus mon
February 22nd, 2012
4:25 pm
There’s no way Matty Ice is a top 10 QB if he can’t throw the deep ball. He won’t lose you a game, but we mortgaged the farm for a deep threat and we don’t have a guy who can get it out there. That’s a problem. We don’t have an O-Line to protect him, that’s a big part of it. More importantly Matty-Ice doesn’t have the arm strength. It’s as if his nicknamed which was derived from his cool nature in leading drives in the 4th quarter, has changed to Matty-Ice the guy who’s touch is so cold he can’t complete a big pass. Sad, but true. I agree that Matt Ryan is serviceable, but a star or a top 10? You’re kidding yourself. Good enough to put out there, not bad enough to pull (barely).
Jeff B
February 22nd, 2012
4:27 pm
Mark, I’ve got a bone to pick with you. Yes, Baker wasn’t always the 2nd worst tackle in the league (according to PFF). Over the course of the three prior years, he was merely the 15th worst tackle (according to PFF). Source:
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/15/three-year-pass-blocking-efficiency-offensive-linemen/
invictus mon
February 22nd, 2012
4:27 pm
Dawgdad,
All I’ve gotta say is that’s got to be the sweetest job in the world. making a couple million a year to hold a clipboard. If I got offered that job I’d have to ask if they want that in blood or if pen will do.
That said, I REALLY hope we don’t have to worry about that clown actually getting a non roster invite to camp.
Jeff B
February 22nd, 2012
4:28 pm
In case you don’t see what I’m getting at, it’s that Baker has always sucked. It’s not a matter of just “restoring his confidence.”
SawThat1nce
February 22nd, 2012
4:28 pm
Bradley, regarding that last sentence of your article, It Starts with the headcoach, not the QB.
Get the QB an OLine that can give him more than 2 seconds of protection from the pass rush, before you start raging him out.
SawThat1nce
February 22nd, 2012
4:29 pm
DeCoud, a franchise player? Come on man.
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
4:40 pm
Not a top ten QB? That’s funny.
He’s better than the QB of the following teams: Buffalo, NYJ, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland, Washington, Minnesota, Tampa, Carolina, San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle, and St. Louis. That’s 19 teams.
It’s debatable whether he’s better than Schaub, Rivers, Romo, Vick, Stafford, or Cutler.
He’s almost certainly not as good as Roethlisberger, Manning, Manning, Rodgers, Brady, or Brees.
Jeff B
February 22nd, 2012
4:41 pm
Why does everybody love Roethlisberger so much? HE’s clearly not a top-10 QB anymore!!
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
February 22nd, 2012
4:42 pm
Does the Falcons need a bartender? Is that why they’re interested in Garcia? The birds have so many problems it must be hard to determine where to begin. When you trade away 4 picks for a great receiver in Julio and then use him as a decoy for 10 yard passes you might have a problem. Blank has put all his eggs in the basket of new coaching and schemes for 2012. The draft will get him little but his checkbook could get him a couple of difference makers. Since Blank saved all the money on no draft picks for 2012 then he needs to invest those dollars in free agents that make sense. The real problem is the QB position and the birds will just have to go with Ryan this year but he will never get you past round 1.
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
4:51 pm
I am not sure I disagree, Jeff B. Plus he’s always had a great defense supporting him, but I think he has played pretty well with a subpar running game the past few years. Plus, it’s just easier than dealing with the morons who think rings tell the whole story.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
4:55 pm
It’s time for some quarterback competition, CHOKE has blown his 4 chances, more than any other Falcant qb has had.
Dude needs to spend some clip board duty so he can respect the position.
I mean look at the dude, his arms are so skinny because he spends his off season partying instead of working out in the gym.
Gold Gym definitely is not on his priority list
Die Hard Falcon
February 22nd, 2012
4:55 pm
@George Stein–
I couldn’t agree more, I’ve been telling these MR2 haters that he’s top 10, statistically it’s a FACT. Everyone talks about 3 games (our unfortunate playoff losses) and says that he’s terrible or serviceable or any other baseless phrase that has no roots in reality. I saw him overthrow many deep routes, so I believe he can make all the NFL throws, certainly not w/ as much zip as Cutler or Stafford or some others, but if he could get more than 2 seconds so he could actually do a 5 or 7 step drop then it’d be another story. Brees, Brady have all day to pass and have terrific pockets to do so from. Rodgers is very mobile, so he buys time, Matt will prove these fools wrong
JSS
February 22nd, 2012
4:57 pm
“He’s better than the QB of the following teams: Buffalo, NYJ, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland, Washington, Minnesota, Tampa, Carolina, San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle, and St. Louis. That’s 19 teams.”
??? Was that a typo?
Those two game-managers Alex Smith and Tim Tebow showed more play-off moxie than Ryan has since the 3rd quarter of 2008 debacle in Glendale…
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
5:02 pm
All you have to do is go back and look at the Bears game his rookie season, Die Hard, and watch him fire the ball to Micheal Jenkins on the next to last play of the game. He has plenty of arm.
What the hell is moxie, JSS?
Die Hard Falcon
February 22nd, 2012
5:05 pm
@JSS–
So you’re telling me that there is even 1 GM in the NFL that given the choice between Matt Ryan, Tim Tebow, or Alex Smith, that ANYONE would not take Matt Ryan hands down?!?
Alex Smith played great in the playoffs, especially when they sent brees and the aints packing, but that’s 1 game and he didn’t play bad against the G-men but Tebow, seriously! And we’re talking about a 1 playoff win a piece and the 49ers were a top 3 D. That’s silly.
JSS
February 22nd, 2012
5:08 pm
Well, since this afternoon is a session of Mythbusters…
Fact… Romo, Cutler, Stafford, and Romo get hit and pressured way more than Ryan…
Fact… Matt Ryan is the only QB among the “statistical” Top Ten to have a playoff completion percentage of more than 60% (more than two games played) while attempting more than 40 passes and never thrown for more 200 yards…
Die Hard Falcon
February 22nd, 2012
5:09 pm
@Stein-
That is probably my favorite MR2 moment, that was a thing of beauty, sadly I had to watch it on Tivo. I was so sick after the bears scored and there was only 18 seconds left that I left the room to cool off, then I hear my friend yelling Come here and I came back just in time to see the field goal, had to watch the throw on rewind.
Absolutely, he can make throws, and if we get an oline this year, the haters WILL be silenced.
JSS
February 22nd, 2012
5:16 pm
Everybody in the AJC blogging knows that I think Tebow is a train wreck… But I give him this, when presented with the chance to make plays, he does it… And he did it in the playoffs… The New Age Ken O’Brien hasn’t… He (Ryan) has the greatest perception aura in the world among some of you… But among the majority of observers, they have a big ball and chain around his neck… And team game or not, he wilts more and more each time sun lamp is turned on…
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
5:16 pm
0-3 in the playoffs……………
End of story……………
HA HA HA
chuck
February 22nd, 2012
5:16 pm
Grimes lost my support when he decided not to play in the playoff game. He was too concerned about his new contract so I say “Good riddance”. He showed himself as a poor teammate and surely wouldn’t be welcome back in the locker room.
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
5:16 pm
Provide the source, JSS.
Die Hard Falcon
February 22nd, 2012
5:16 pm
@JSS–
0-3 in the playoffs, I know this, I cannot defend the playoff games. That’s only 3 games. He will have to step up in the playoffs no doubt, but the reality is that in the last 4 seasons, there’ve been 64 reg season games and he’s started 62 of them and gone 43-19, plus he’s statistically doing top 10 work. While I cannot prove it, I would say that the low YPC in the playoffs could be partially due to scheme as well, anyway, I’ll stay w/ Matt
JSS
February 22nd, 2012
5:17 pm
Oh yeah…
“Moxie”
1. Energy, Pep
2. Courage, Determination
3. Know-How
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
5:17 pm
Agreed, DHF. My favorite will be when he gets handed a Lombardi Trophy and clowns like CHOKE have to eat it.
Supes
February 22nd, 2012
5:19 pm
I wouldn’t franchise Grimes, too much money…I’d rather them franchise John Abraham b/c who else are you going to get to play DE? Robert Mathis?
As far as Lofton, I’ve said it many times and I’m going to keep saying it…the guy is a SOLID player but he isn’t a Game Changing Impact type LB. He never seems to come up with a big play when the team needs it, you know who does…a guy by the name of Sean Weatherspoon! All I remember from Lofton is making tackles 5 yards pass the line of scrimmage, 10 yards after a catch or whiffing on a UNBLOCKED blitz with a simple step aside from the QB. That’s it. That’s Lofton for you (at least under Van Gorder). So tell me is it the player or the system? Seems to me that “Spoon” made several impact plays this past season where Lofton had what…1-2 at the MOST. The kind of money he’s going to demand…I’d rather have Dent there (for the cheap $) making the EXACT same plays that Lofton does. He can’t do any worst. In essence Lofton is turning into Keith Brooking(S) and we ran him out of town!
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
5:20 pm
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
5:17 pm
Agreed, DHF. My favorite will be when he gets handed a Lombardi Trophy and clowns like CHOKE have to eat it
______________________________________________
Is that the Madden version?
HA HA HA
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
5:21 pm
The only food I will be eating is a big bowl of noodles where CHOKE gets his arm strength from…………………..
HA HA HA
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
5:25 pm
Can you quantify the value of moxie?
Still@theKool-aidBAR
February 22nd, 2012
5:29 pm
hi guys
A person SMART enough to know......
February 22nd, 2012
5:31 pm
moxie was a phrase used to describe a women right?
JSS
February 22nd, 2012
5:32 pm
Matt Ryan Playoffs Game Log
Playoffs
Passing
Tm Opp Result GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate
1 2008 ATL @ ARI L 24-30 * 26 40 65.0% 199 2 2 72.8
Tm Opp Result GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate
2 2010 ATL GNB L 21-48 * 20 29 69.0% 186 1 2 69.0
Tm Opp Result GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate
3 2011 ATL @ NYG L 2-24 24 41 58.5% 199 0 0 71.1
Three game 63.5% completion rate… He’s never thrown for more than 200 yards… And in two of those games, he threw 40 or more attempts.
Source Pro Football Reference . com
I dropped my fried twinkle
February 22nd, 2012
5:32 pm
yes
Sid
February 22nd, 2012
5:39 pm
Not that it’s all that obvious but you are probably right on the bullseye. We need some solid free agent acquistions to make some of the “won’ts” pan out. I’m worried about Baker, this game isn’t just about playing inspired, you’ve got to play at a level that transcends hand holding and tear drying and Sam has seemed to decline just slightly every year. But, look at Jammal Anderson, goes to Indy and is exceeding expectations. Give me a big Hmmmmm? ………………..and doing my best Colombo imitation (….and just one more thing) keep Curtis Lofton, he’s one of only a few that bring some swagger to this team.