Here’s what the Falcons will – and won’t – do this offseason
We offer proof that Sam Baker has occasionally held his own. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
The NFL scouting combine commences this weekend. Free agency begins next month. April brings the draft. Before the cutting and pasting begins, we offer semi-educated guesses as to what the Falcons will/won’t do.
They will keep Sam Baker. The website Pro Football Focus rated Baker the second-worst tackle in the NFL last season, but he wasn’t always so hapless. A lot of things had to go wrong to render a serviceable left tackle so ineffective, and a back injury was only part of it. The Falcons fired line coach Paul Boudreau, who had lost faith in Baker, and will give Pat Hill, hired as a replacement, every chance to rebuild Baker’s self-esteem.
They will rely on Hill to set a tone, and not just with Baker. Hill hasn’t worked in the NFL since 1996, but his aggressive approach as head coach — he dared to play Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime — put Fresno State on the map. This O-line could stand some prodding. It was revealing that the Falcons’ front couldn’t muster the required push on three infamous fourth-and-1’s. It also was revealing that Mike Johnson, a 312-pound guard taken in Round 3 in 2010 after playing at Alabama under a rather exacting head coach, never found favor with Boudreau.
They won’t trade up into Round 1. Owing to last season’s five-picks-for-Julio-Jones deal, the Falcons don’t have a first-round choice in 2012. General manager Thomas Dimitroff’s preference would be for this draft to play itself out and his organization to get back on schedule. Sure, he’d waver if Indianapolis called and said, “We’ll give you the No. 1 pick for Michael Turner.” But Indy won’t.
They will keep Michael Turner. The best-case scenario is that the Falcons will get one more big season from the big back, and logic holds that you should trade a guy one year too soon, as opposed to one year too late. But what sort of return would Turner, who’s 30, bring? Would you trade a 1,000-yard back for a fifth-round pick? Wouldn’t you be better served letting him work behind a retooled line under a new offensive coordinator who might actually direct a screen pass the big back’s way?
They won’t be crushed if Curtis Lofton leaves. The middle linebacker is a three-year starter and a fierce tackler, but there’s growing sentiment that he’s a liability against the pass. The question thus becomes: Would you pay $8 million a year for a two-down linebacker? At the right price, the Falcons would love to keep Lofton. If he does depart, they’d give Akeem Dent, the Georgia product taken in Round 3 last year, a long look in the middle.
They will slap the franchise tag on Brent Grimes. The Falcons could apply this tag, which allows a team to hang on to a free agent for another year at a much higher price, to any of several defenders — Lofton, John Abraham, Thomas DeCoud — but cornerback seems the area of greatest need. (And DeCoud figures to be more affordable as a long-term re-up.)
They won’t spend big to keep Abraham. Of the Falcons’ 33 sacks last season, he produced 9 1/2. But Abraham will turn 34 in May, and he has a history of injury. It’s scary to think that a team incapable of sustaining a pass rush would shed its best pass rusher, but remember what new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan after his hiring: “I’d rather have 10 guys get four sacks than four guys get 10.”
They won’t pursue Hines Ward. As much as the Falcons would welcome the locker-room presence of Ward, who’s from Forest Park and who played at UGA and who may be cut by Pittsburgh, there would have to be an on-field component to warrant such a hire. Ward will turn 36 next month, and he plays a position where speed is of some essence. As great a pro as he has been, he doesn’t have much left.
In the tradition of “urgent” and “explosive,” they will adopt a new watchword: “Daring.” In the neo-NFL, it would seem impossible for the 10th-ranked offense to oppose the 27th-ranked defense and to make no turnovers and miss no field goals and still not score a point. But that was the Falcons’ wretched lot in their playoff loss to New York, and there’s only one rational explanation: They played scared.
Mike Smith didn’t coach scared — he went for it on two fourth-and-1’s — but the message didn’t resonate. Matt Ryan threw 41 passes to no effect, and how in the neo-NFL can a big-time quarterback leave no imprint? Dirk Koetter, the new coordinator, has to render Ryan daring again. (It isn’t as if he was always risk-averse: He threw 19 interceptions in 14 games as a Boston College senior.)
For inspiration, the Falcons can turn to their nemesis. In 12 Saints-Falcons games, Drew Brees has thrown 11 interceptions, and that’s a fat number. His team, however, has won 10 of those games. The Falcons have allowed timidity to dilute their conspicuous talent, and that starts — and needs to end — with the quarterback. It’s time for Matty Ice to become Matty Fire.
By Mark Bradley
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254 comments Add your comment
Th
February 22nd, 2012
1:44 pm
PMC: We just lost the strongest one when Blank’s wife gave him the heave-ho. Maybe he is as boring as his team. He should have franchised her.
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
1:49 pm
yes JJM, lets trade one of the top passers in the league, regardless of your opinion(which counts for nothing, by the way) for another Micheal Vick wannabe, albeit one with less thuggery, NO THANKS
Dan
February 22nd, 2012
1:57 pm
Sign Jared Gaither OT, Mario Williams DE, Paul Sloliai DT, Channing Crowder LB, Manny Lawson LB and Reggie Nelson S and I would be happy…..Let our Free Agents all go! Release Turner and Baker give Walls CB with 4.3 speed and height a shot. Draft Lamar Miller RB in the 2nd round and Ben Jones C in the 3rd.
PreyDawg
February 22nd, 2012
1:58 pm
Baker is a real mystery to me. I am a true fanatic. With DVR I go back on Monday and watch every play in slo mo. (My wife hates Mondays). One Baker play stands out and defines the season he had in my opinion.
I can’t recall the oponent right now. But it was a pass play and the defender really exploded off the ball and into Baker. Completely clean and legal. It was all about physicality. He blew Baker back on his heels and began to push him back deep into the pocket. Matt got rid of it quick, no sack and we gained two yards. That is not my point.
The camera angle was from the endzone and you had a great shot of Baker’s face. Two things were apparent, Baker was shocked at the intensity of the rusher, and Baker’s feelings were hurt.
After the whistle, he just kept staring at the defender with a look of, “Hey man! What the heck? Take it easy! That is uncalled for.”
This was about game 7 or 8 and I knew at that moment we had to DO something. Svitek ended up being a significant upgrade. That is a problem.
Baker is very slow out of his stance. His feet seemed slow all year. These may have to do with his back injury. But that look on his face. That cannot be coached I don’t think.
This new line coach better be good….REAL GOOD!!
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
2:02 pm
One day the Matt Ryan bash-fest will end, and FINALLY you idiots will realize that all but about 5 or 6 teams would love to have Matt Ryan. The ones excluded would be N.O., GB, NE, BAL, NYG and PITT. Guess what guys, theres only ONE Rodgers, ONE Brees, ONE Brady, ONE Big Ben, and ONE ELI. Those guys are the best of the best of the best, and there cant be 32 of them. So suck it up and deal with it, because we have a pretty freakin good one. IF youre not ok with the fact that we cant replicate Brady or Brees’ talents and somehow mutate them into Ryan’s body then go be a Pats or Saints fan. Otherwise shut up. The playoff wins will come. Its hard to win games in this league without good playcalling, and Mularkeys was just awful. Not to mention there were AT LEAST 2 dropped passes that cost us at the end of the game (Roddy against the Saints in the first matchup, Julio @ Texans). So it doesnt always fall on him, to try and pretend otherwise is ignorant.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
2:02 pm
HA HA HA
Breaking the bank to make CHOKE look relevant has bankrupted ole Artie……………
2007 days are back again………………..
Curtis Lofton welcome to Philly…………………
HA HA HA
PreyDawg
February 22nd, 2012
2:05 pm
@ OhhhhYeah- Good post. No argument here. Ryan has been handcuffed for a long time. He also had a bunch of critical drops this year. Granted, he got happy feet for a while after all the hits on him. (I know his sack numbers didn’t look that bad but that is a credit to him dumping it off quick).
I think we will see much improvement in him this year. i think the Scheme will give him more opportunities to succeed.
jay
February 22nd, 2012
2:07 pm
OMG! I keep reading that they are going to resign Decoud. WTH! I thought they were going to evaluate talent after the season. i don’t care how cheap he will be, he can’t play.
JH
February 22nd, 2012
2:10 pm
TH,
Mediocrity doesnt describe a player who only trails Willis and Mayo in tackles the past two years. You can’t replace that production with Dent.
jay
February 22nd, 2012
2:13 pm
BeliCheat was dumping safeties at the start of the season and he still made the superbowl. Believe me there is better cheap talent at safety without having to depend on Thomas Decout!
Ivan
February 22nd, 2012
2:14 pm
Get rid of Baker. Even if it costs the team, it’s better to just cut your losses.
Ivan
February 22nd, 2012
2:16 pm
And I’m with Jay. Let DeCoud walk too.
Die Hard Falcon
February 22nd, 2012
2:18 pm
@OhhhhYeah–
I couldn’t agree more about all the lame Matt Ryan haters. He is definitely in the top 10 and he’s still pretty young. Glad to know there are some smart people on the blog.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
2:19 pm
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
1:49 pm
yes JJM, lets trade one of the top passers in the league, regardless of your opinion(which counts for nothing, by the way) for another Micheal Vick wannabe, albeit one with less thuggery, NO THANKS
_________________________________________
A thug is someone that steals, therefore CHOKE stole 72 million…………………
A weak THUG at that……………..
HA HA HA
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
2:20 pm
Im sorry, but with everyone predicting Boykin from Georgia to fall to the mi-late 3rd round, Dimitroff would be absolutely out of his mind not to draft him in the second round. The guy has great athleticism, size, speed, and plays with passion. Not to mention, he is a great returner and has great ball skills. So even if we slap the franchise tag on Grimes and he sticks around for one more year, Boykin could play the nickel and take over next year if we lose Grimes or decide to cut Dunta. Or we could even make him the #3 receiver and let Harry Douglas go. To me, if Boykin is there, its the no-brainer of all no-brainers.
Whopper Dawg
February 22nd, 2012
2:20 pm
A lot of stock in going into these new miracle workers, eh, I mean coordinators.
Bad OLine – no problem
No pass rush – no problem
Lose Abe – no problem
Matty Ice can’t throw long and melts in big games – no problem
TD of course gets a pass in all this, but with Lofton, DeCoud Jerry and Baker all falling out of favor, Turner as big a liability (can’t catch) as he is an asset, Edwards and Robinson are mediocre and TG on his last legs, exactly what does he hang his personnel hat on???
Ryan and Spoon and the 5 for 1 Jones???? That in four years of work with spending 6 no 1s. I just don’t get it.
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
2:21 pm
oh wait, arent you a Vick fan? So that means you know exactly what im talking about since he stole 100 MILLION from your blind and ignorant Eagles………
Talk about your “Ha HA HA’s”
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
2:21 pm
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
2:02 pm
One day the Matt Ryan bash-fest will end, and FINALLY you idiots will realize that all but about 5 or 6 teams would love to have Matt Ryan
____________________________________________
The Arena League?
HA HA HA
Die Hard Falcon
February 22nd, 2012
2:22 pm
I am definitely not a huge DeCoud fan, but he did lead the team in INT’s last year and is a decent middle of the road safety. I think the biggest problem is that he gets out of position and lets huge plays get by him. I think though keeping DeCoud and Sanders is an economical and smart move, at cheap prices. Unless the best safety falls to us in the draft, I say sign them both to modest 2 yr deals and we have much more important spots to fill in FA
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
2:25 pm
For 30 million the Ravens got 5 playoff wins…………….
HA HA HA
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
2:26 pm
Oops, I think I hurt CHOKEs feelings again by blindsiding him with his own argument.
100 MIL and didnt even play the entire season….sheesh, talk about stealing
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
2:26 pm
ZERO offensive points in a playoff game?
Are you serious?
Out scored by the defense?
It’s no wonder why Flacco is getting a new contract and CHOKE is…..well…..getting…..CRICKETS………………….
HA HA HA
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
2:28 pm
CHOKE…are you ever going to answer my question? You know, the one you never seem to answer? How many rings does Flacco have?
None you say? So, youre telling me he STILL doesnt have more rings than Ryan? So youre saying a playoff win really doesnt matter if you dont win the whole thing? Man, who woulda thunk it?
Ask any player around the league, moron, which theyd rather have. A bunch of playoff wins and no championship, or only a few playoff wins and just ONE championship. Clearly you dont know how the league works, friend
Pete E. Tong
February 22nd, 2012
2:28 pm
You missed the most important part!
If they stick to these predictions, they will go 9-7.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
2:29 pm
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-films-anatomy-of-a-play/09000d5d81dcad2d/Divisional-Anatomy-Tramon-Williams-Pick-Six
“How an IDIOT reads the defense”
HA HA HA
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
2:32 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soZJ_EQp9cM&feature=related
“All you need to know about a LOSER”
HA HA HA
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
2:33 pm
how cute, you went thru all that effort to show a video from two years ago. Wonder how many pick sixs your man crush Mike Vick has thrown, or uh…..30 yard sacks, or uh….fumbles in critical situations, or should i mention the fact that he has ZERO game winning drives in the fourth quarter in his career? And the Eagles payed him how much?
You should probably learn what it is youre trying to talk about before you actually open your mouth
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
2:34 pm
Oh and by the way moron, you just posted a video of Matt Ryan leadign a game winning drive in college, thanks for proving our point
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
2:41 pm
BARF
HA HA HA
Me Too
February 22nd, 2012
2:42 pm
The word should be PLAY! And it needs to be driven into HC Smith’s head with a mallet.
Th
February 22nd, 2012
2:43 pm
Great QB’s hand the ball off in the 4th quarter, not lead game winning desperation drives. Mediocre middle line backers make tackles 5 yards up field instead of stuffing them in the hole. You could also make a 15 minute DVD of Lofton being beaten to the edge and diving at heels as the RB heads up field. He is a good LB on a 10 win team but will never start in a Super Bowl.
Me Too
February 22nd, 2012
2:44 pm
And we have had Michael Turner for the past four years and we still haven’t won a playoff game or defeated a worthy opponent. How will things change if HC Smith has his “crutch/pacifier”?
Falcfan
February 22nd, 2012
2:48 pm
Here’s my predictions: They will keep Lofton, Grimes, Decoud…they will lose Abraham and douglas because some teams will pop them with more money than the Falcons are willing to pay…they should pursue the New Orleans guard, and will draft OL, DE, and TE. turner will stay and split carries 60/40 with Rodgers….Julio will be near the top in NFL in TD catches, and our offense will become very unpredictable, unlike the Mularkey era. Nolan will turn this defense into a top 6 defense with blitzes and man coverage. There you have it.
JSS
February 22nd, 2012
2:48 pm
What the heck is “payed?”
The Real Falcon
February 22nd, 2012
2:50 pm
What hogwash! Does anyone believe that Dent who was a draft day reach can play as well as Lofton? Anyone including a blog writer who thinks that is just trying to get comments, not actually offering a viable idea. So we replace a 4 year starter with a second year player who has no NFL scrimmage experience? Glad TD and Smitty are making those decisions.
The Real Falcon
February 22nd, 2012
2:52 pm
And let’s all give Baker-the-bust another shot at starting. Because it was all about his injury and coaching and not his lack of talent.
Bucky
February 22nd, 2012
2:52 pm
I’m looking forward to the new Coaches…Better Results…GO Falcons!
JSS
February 22nd, 2012
2:53 pm
“Ask any player around the league, moron, which theyd rather have. A bunch of playoff wins and no championship, or only a few playoff wins and just ONE championship. Clearly you dont know how the league works, friend”
But what happens when you have NEITHER of those things? Well, it is clear as sky (outside of the Metro area), the 2008-2011 Atlanta Falcons
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
2:56 pm
JSS, my good friend, IF neither happens, then you’ll still be in the majority of the other teams that rarely do anything. And at the end of the day, it’s just a game anyway, your life’s happiness shouldn’t be based on whether your team wins a playoff game (dont worry, I’m not speaking about you,I know better).
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
2:59 pm
Assigning credit to Joe Flacco for Baltimore’s playoff success? Ha.
I’m pretty sure Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, and Ed Reed had something to do with those wins.
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
3:01 pm
Do you really think there’s that much value in a three game sample size, JSS?
Also, two of the teams the Falcons lost to won the Super Bowl, so it’s not like any other teams were beating them in the playoffs, either.
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
3:02 pm
Oh no, Stein, don’t come in here talking about that nonsense. Didnt you know Flacco has the same level defense that Matt Ryan has? And didnt you know Ray Rice and Micheal Turner are equals? Its all on the quarterback. Sarcasm intended
Bama Mike
February 22nd, 2012
3:02 pm
You will also hear the phrase ” Vertical Game” over 1118 times prior to the first game.
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
3:07 pm
Seriously, ohhhYEAH. Pointing to playoff wins is a fool’s game.
Ryan and Smith haven’t been perfect, but who is? In my opinion, they can stay forever.
ohhhYEAH
February 22nd, 2012
3:09 pm
I know this, and you know this, but most people want to cry about it instead of seeing it for what it is.
George Stein
February 22nd, 2012
3:13 pm
Just remind yourself that there are people out there that believe vaccines cause autism. It usually helps me.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 22nd, 2012
3:36 pm
Falcants interested in drafting Garcia?
Uh oh CHOKE kissers………………
HA HA HA
mlko
February 22nd, 2012
3:43 pm
can the brilliant dimitroff give up more draft picks for another overrated wide receiver??? he’s a genius!
Ted M
February 22nd, 2012
3:43 pm
Flacons will go 8-8 maybe 9-7 but they’ll have an excuse…Matt Ryan just needs a year or so to learn the new offensive coordinator.
Little Richardd
February 22nd, 2012
3:44 pm
Franchise tag Grimes? That’s crack talk. Sign Ab’ham to a 6 year deal. Extend Baker 4 more years. See if Morten Andersen would be interested in doing kickoffs next year for 3 million. Grimes is decent but franchise tag??? Too much crack baby!! I should be getting million more for my chicken commericals if you where in charge!