Are the do-nothing Braves in dire divisional peril? Probably not
The bat and the gloves belong to Chipper Jones. I assume the tattoo does, too. (AP photo)
Two reasons the Braves’ subdued offseason has been poorly received by many locals: The 2011 season didn’t end well, and other members of the National League East have made bigger personnel noise. (It would, we can agree, be hard to make less noise than simply paying Derek Lowe to go away.)
Conventional wisdom holds that the Braves have been content to sit idle while the rest of the division moves onward and upward, but conventional wisdom can sometimes be less than wise. As pitchers and catchers set to work at Lake Buena Vista — if you can call what transpires in spring training “work” — let’s eyeball the Eastern bloc:
Philadelphia Phillies (finished 102-60 last season, 13 games ahead of the Braves): Lost closer Ryan Madson but added closer Jonathan Papelbon; lost left fielder Raul Ibanez and starting pitcher Roy Oswalt; will be without first baseman Ryan Howard, who tore his Achilles tendon on the final play of the Division Series, probably until Memorial Day.
Unless Vance Worley and Joe Blanton fall to pieces, the Phillies shouldn’t miss Oswalt, who was the fourth of the Big Four, and Papelbon figures to be a slight upgrade on Madson. But the everyday eight will struggle without Howard, and even his biggest years seem behind him. At 32, he’s the youngest among starting infielders. (And catcher Carlos Ruiz is 33, and center fielder Shane Victorino is 31.)
Starting pitching and the 2011 deadline addition of Hunter Pence should enable the Phillies to bleed out one more division title — that’ll make six in a row — but Philly’s window is closing. Last season’s Round 1 exit puts even more pressure on this aging team.
Washington Nationals (finished 80-81, 8 1/2 games behind the Braves: Added starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson and relievers Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin; lost Livan Hernandez, who made it his lot in life to beat the Braves 10 times a year for the past 50 years. (Slight exaggeration, but you get the idea.)
The Nationals have targeted this as their year of arrival: The famous pitcher Stephen Strasburg should be recovered from his 2010 surgery, and the almost-as-famous hitting prospect Bryce Harper could be in the starting lineup on Opening Day. (And there’s another big hitter — third baseman Anthony Rendon — in the chain.)
The elder Nats, however, are less imposing. Outfielder Jayson Werth hit .232 on the first year of his $126-million contract. Shortstop Ian Desmond has made 77 errors the past two seasons. The first baseman is Adam LaRoche, who’s 32 and is coming off shoulder surgery.
New York Mets (finished 77-85, 12 games behind the Braves): Lost shortstop Jose Reyes and outfielder Angel Pagan; added closer Frank Francisco.
There’s not much to say. Owing to their Bernie-Madoff-incurred financial straits, the Mets have little to spend and are all but bereft of top-shelf talent. They should finish last by some distance.
Miami Marlins (finished 72-90, 17 games behind the Braves): Hired Ozzie Guillen as manager; added shortstop Jose Reyes, closer Heath Bell and starting pitchers Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano; lost starting pitcher Javier Vazquez.
It’s a toss-up as to which NL’Easter is more pumped for 2012 — Washington or the team formerly known as the Florida Marlins. The Fish will move into their new downtown ballpark, which comes equipped with a retractable roof and actual fish tanks behind home plate, and they’ve spent nearly $200 million of fixer-upper money on free agents. Even Phillies manager Charlie Manuel indicated he sees the Marlins as the “biggest threat.”
But are they? The advent of Reyes means incumbent shortstop Hanley Ramirez will move to third base, and Ramirez has already expressed differing emotions about the move. Zambrano’s temperament can render his arm ineffective, and No. 1 starter Josh Johnson missed nearly all of last season with shoulder soreness. On paper, this seems a good team. On the field, it could be rather less.
Projections: The Braves chose to do little over the offseason because they believe enough players who had bad years will remember who they are, or were. That’s a risk, yes, but it’s a considered one. Much went wrong for the 2011 Braves, and still they won 89 games. Before we wring our hands over the possibility of them being passed in the standings, we need ask: Are the young Nationals capable of improving by 10 games? Are the new-look Marlins primed to improve by 18?
Much has changed, but really not much has changed. The Braves figure to be the second-best team in the East and the National League team best equipped to draw the wild card. Given that the wild-card holder wound up winning the 2011 World Series, that’s not such a bad place to be.
By Mark Bradley
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217 comments Add your comment
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
5:34 pm
Meanwhile, at the United Center – the Hawks trail the Bulls by 18. Joe Johnson and his millions with 4 points in the first half! And just to know the universe in in full alignment, Josh is 0-1 from 3 and 0-1 from the line!
Chuck
February 20th, 2012
5:35 pm
Wrong Mr. Bradley,and I am already tired of hearing about chipper jones.
BBQ MAN
February 20th, 2012
5:35 pm
As a Braves FAN since 66. I’ve about had it with the whiny ignorant so called fans. It’s clear that most of the naysayers know very little about real MLB.
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:37 pm
It’s only basketball. That doesn’t mean anything. Watching pro basketball is as exciting as watching tennis-pong.
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:39 pm
BBQ MAN, the question is, do you believe in moneyball?
Brave Hokie
February 20th, 2012
5:45 pm
@BBQ MAN
And your ’sane’ approach as payed off in how many shiney Atl Braves Championships since ‘66???
Maybe you should be more like us crazy ‘naysayers…’
The Atlanta Braves are the epitome of complacency and average {period}
George Stein
February 20th, 2012
5:45 pm
The question, Delbert, is how anyone couldn’t believe in the advanced metrics.
fsubrave
February 20th, 2012
5:47 pm
seaAtl is right…i see this team as a lock for 4th place and about 80-82 wins…nothing better….just way too many question marks..no upgrades anywhere…
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
5:47 pm
Give the deer a rifle and even things up a little. Let the deer get Buck Commander tattoos on their bottoms. If you support the little deer, then don’t buy any deer dogs at the concessions stands this year. Now, there was probably some hot dogs left over from last season that didn’t get eaten and they will need to move them out first when they start playing ball again. We make it a practice not to eat a stadium hot dog during the first two home stands. After that, they should be into the new deer dogs and you stand a fighting chance of a fresh dog. Just don’t buy a deer dog and expect it to be an all-beef dog like you’re used to. It’s going to be a little stringy and a little gamey. That’s why they make mustard.
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
5:52 pm
@BBQ MAN: Ignorant as to what? That the ‘faithful’ should be GLAD the team won’t spend money? That the ‘faithful’ should give the team a free pass for blowing the unblowable last September? That the ‘faithful’ should accept one World Series title over a 46 year span in Atlanta? That the ‘faithful’ should just blindly believe that all things that went wrong last year won’t happen again?
Please inform us what a real MLB knowledgeable person like yourself knows that we don’t (you didn’t bother to state any position on anything, just bash others – you’d make a good politician!)
cowdogit
February 20th, 2012
5:56 pm
St Francis of assisi said anyone that can not show pity and compassion for his beautiful animal’s will be treated the same in their hour of need.
Mark Bradley
February 20th, 2012
6:01 pm
I’ve finally realized whose throwing motion Hanson’s resembled — that of Philip Rivers, who if I recall plays a different sport.
Whopper Dawg
February 20th, 2012
6:01 pm
Mark, a lot of ifs for the Bravos -
- If Chipper has one more year
- If the kid can play short and hit a little
- If Hudson and Hanson bounce back from surgery
- If JJ can bounce back from injury
- If Heywood can return to rookie season form
- If Uggla can play a whole year rather than half
- If Fredi doesn’t use up the bullpen by August
- If the bench has anything at all
Now if all that comes true, this team has the potential to go deep into the fall.
Mark Bradley
February 20th, 2012
6:03 pm
There are no guarantees for any team any year, Whopper Dawg. Who, this time last year, could have foreseen Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward not hitting?
Braves Fan
February 20th, 2012
6:04 pm
What’s up with your articles always being so damn negative? You give ATL media a bad name. You wonder why ATL fans act the way you do. Well, here is one of the main reasons – you
Mark Bradley
February 20th, 2012
6:06 pm
And, as far as spending goes …
The Phillies spent almost twice as much as Atlanta to win 13 more games, all of which enabled them to lose in Round 1 of the postseason. If you’re a Philly fan, was that money well spent?
B
February 20th, 2012
6:10 pm
It’s tough being an Atlanta team sports fan. There is just not much to get excited about.
Hillbilly D
February 20th, 2012
6:10 pm
When addressing Sonny Clusters, “y’all” is preferable to “you.”
Actually to address Sonny as “y’all” would be incorrect. There is only one Sonny and “y’all” is always plural, never singular. So if you are addressing Sonny, by himself, the correct address would be you, Sonny, or the more formal, Mr. Clusters.
We won’t even get into the differences in the correct uses of “y’all”, “some of y’all” and “all of y’all”.
George Stein
February 20th, 2012
6:17 pm
If there’s a fanbase more qualified than that of the Braves to tell Philadelphia that the postseason is a crap shoot, I haven’t seen it.
louisville slugger
February 20th, 2012
6:17 pm
I’m a glass-half-full guy normally, and in this case, I am as well. I really do think the Braves are positioned well for the year, all things considered. Bourn for a full year, as well as a confident Kimbrel and Venters who don’t have to kill themselves in spring training to assure themselves their spots. If Uggla doesn’t hit like Mario Mendoza the first half of the year, and if Heyward really does have his swing back, I like their chances. Although, I do hope Fredi has learned from his mistakes on how to manage a bullpen…
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
6:18 pm
Mark-
Do you think the Phillies would sell out EVERY game if they spent what the Braves do? I think the fans of Philly answerd your questions with every sell out – YES, THEY DO THINK IT’S MONEY WELL SPENT!
George Stein
February 20th, 2012
6:24 pm
Just wait, Gwinnett Fred. The fall for that team will be swift and ugly. They are tied into several long-term contracts and don’t have the prospects in their system to support them. They’ll be spending lots of money and won’t have the success to back it up, at which point their fans will stop showing up.
Brownie
February 20th, 2012
6:42 pm
Waaaay too many negative comments here – spring training has just begun!! A number of bloggers have pointed out all the health issues the Braves had in ‘11 and they still won 89 games, and it took a perfect storm of injuries, etc. to collapse and lose the wild card.
For all of you who think that Fredi is an idiot who wears out bullpens, consider this. Last year, Huddy was coming off a year + missed due to Tommy John, Hanson and JJ lost the second half to injuries, and Medlin was also coming off TJ. That left him with nothing but young guys, and a lot of spot starts.
Question: would you have preferred he wear out the new young starters, potentially losing them to injuries for the next couple of years? Or do what he did, which was to manage it as best he could – keep in mind that with all the injuries, and most critically D Lowe with an empty tank, no starters other than Huddy could go more than 6 innings per game. He could have kept the starters in and take that huge risk, and would have also lost more games by having them get shelled on their 3rd time thru the order.
Now on to shortstop – everyone is complaining about untested Pasternicky being the starter. Certainly not preferable, but we haven’t seen him yet. Gonzo had to go – every inning he was going to bat, the other team only had to worry about getting 2 outs. AND, if you’ve been reading DOB, you know that the Braves are LOADED with minor league shortstops, all of which will be better than any retread they could have traded (and overpaid) for. Andrelton Simmons will be our SS for years to come – Pasternicky, if he plays well this year, will likely either be traded or compete with Terdoslavich for 3rd base once Chipper retires at the end of this year.
RELAX!!
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
6:44 pm
@George:
I hear you, but since they have been above the league average in attendance for 8 straight years, half of the time selling out virtually every game and the WORST average in that time being over 33,000 a game – I’d say they have gotten their monies worth.
Sure every big hoss dies out – but given 5 straight division titles, 2 world series appearances & 1 championship in that span – the fans have supported them thruout, enabling them to spend big.
The Braves have been below the league average in attendance for the past 8 years. So the braintrust can do 1 of 2 things: Spend to get the fans back at the stadium or cut payroll to match the declining attendance. Unfortunately, they have chosen the latter.
jacket3
February 20th, 2012
6:50 pm
Sonny…
Haven’t read Bradley’s column in a while. Been reading your comments for a long time. As always both you and MB are dead on the money. I guess it is age and 40 years of gonna win everything every spring that makes me laugh at all of it. How long into the season this year will everyone be saying “coulda, woulda, shoulda” all over again…then it will be wait till next year.
Regards Guys
GaryinBham
February 20th, 2012
6:59 pm
I agree, thank you. This team isn’t last year’s team.
The opening day roster was:
PITCHERS (12): Brandon Beachy (RH), Tommy Hanson (RH), Tim Hudson (RH), Jair Jurrjens (RH), Craig Kimbrel (RH), Scott Linebrink (RH), Derek Lowe (RH), Cristhian Martinez (RH), Peter Moylan (RH), Eric O’Flaherty (LH), George Sherrill (LH) and Jonny Venters (LH)
CATCHERS (2): Brian McCann and David Ross
INFIELDERS (7): Brooks Conrad, Freddie Freeman, Alex Gonzalez, Brandon Hicks, Eric Hinske, Chipper Jones and Dan Uggla
OUTFIELDERS (4): Jason Heyward, Nate McLouth, Martin Prado and Matt Young
We used 21 different pitchers, and in the second half lost two major starters. We added a star CF who just barely arrived before the season ended. Our LF was out with a freak injury. etc etc.
We are ALREADY a much different and better team on paper compared to last spring.
Bring ‘em all on. I like our chances.
LivinInAL
February 20th, 2012
7:00 pm
Did ole “raw dogs” Brooks Conrad hook on to a team for spring tryout?
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
7:13 pm
@LivinInAL: Conrad signed a minor league deal with the Brewers (hey, they had to do something with all that money they saved not resigning Fielder!)
BartBuzz
February 20th, 2012
7:24 pm
The likelihood of the Braves falling flat again is slim. The pitching will be better. And I can’t believe Uggla, Heyward and Prado will tank two years in a row. If Chipper will pace himself, he can lead the Braves to the post season. But I won’t be surprised if Wren pulls off a deal. He does have some pitching trade bait.
Greg
February 20th, 2012
7:44 pm
Mark, I find it hard to believe that with their excess of pitchers there wasn’t a single deal the Braves could work out that would improve the team. Isn’t that straining credulity?
Ken Stallings
February 20th, 2012
7:46 pm
When you set your sights on second best, you often finish third or fourth. Can the Nats or Marlins finish ahead of the Braves in 2012? Absolutely they can. One or both can. And when it comes down to where teams stand, those teams who aggressively put the best possible teams on the field often do put the best teams on the field.
The Braves are managed by a focus on costs above all else and a few aged veterans they are counting on to have good years. I see a lot more than has to go wrong for either the Nats or Marlins to finish behind Atlanta than has to go right for the Braves to finish in second.
The Braves gave up winning the division in their plans last season. Now, I think their penny-pinching ways will see them fall to the lower half of the division standings.
sports
February 20th, 2012
7:47 pm
run this rag-tag bunch out of the state.
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
8:07 pm
We was involved in a one-Clusters accident earlier this evening. We was not concussed but we decided not to blog for a couple hours until our head cleared up a little. If we was Fredi Gonzalez we would probably keep our eye on Hanson because this could be the start of something big. We was wondering if the Florida State Patrol was involved and did Hanson get a ticket?
DetroitBraves
February 20th, 2012
8:12 pm
MB, obviously the deals given to Howard and Papelbon are questionable at best. So no, I would not say all of the Phillies money is money well spent. But as for the record, 13 games is not insubstantial. The fact that they lost 3-2 in a five game series, the last game 1-0, has more to do with baseball inferring meaning to a small sample of contests after the more meaningful 162 game schedule has determined the relative strengths of the teams than anything else. That in and of itself is not a problem, given a proper interpretation. But the Phillies regular season record, however they may have come by that record, is validating of their efforts no matter the postseason success. I feel similarly about the 1990s Atlanta Braves. I know people will disagree. I actually don’t necessarily disagree with Sonny Clusters that some of those flags in the outfield carry little meaning, particularly the ones existing only because of the arbitrary nature by which baseball designates champions of geography, but some of them have meaning even if the postseason was ultimately disappointing.
Mecca
February 20th, 2012
8:15 pm
the braves should make the playoffs this year, but will go out in round 1–which is a “successful” year for an atlanta sports team!!!
Old Dog
February 20th, 2012
8:36 pm
The Phillies have the best pitching, including an excellent closer, a good enough offense and defense to take the East again. The Marlins and Nationals have improved greatly and will probably take 2nd and 3rd place. The Braves are better than the Mets so will take 4th place. Also, the Braves will not lose the wild card by crashing in September. They will lose it long before that. We have basically the same team as last year but Wren and friends think we have improved. Hello. . .is anybody home in the Braves organization????
Rod Gilbreath
February 20th, 2012
8:36 pm
I can still play short…..
Barry Bonnell
February 20th, 2012
8:38 pm
I can still play second…..
DetroitBraves
February 20th, 2012
8:40 pm
One final thought (for today) on Fredi Gonzalez. The Braves may well make the playoffs. For those familiar with PECOTA I believe their initial projections have the Braves winning 90 games or so, enough to make a strong bid for the wildcard and only about 4 games or so behind Philadelphia. If the Braves do make the playoffs the results shouldn’t blind us to the process. The Braves nearly made the playoffs last year, and if you were to replay that final month with the exact same personnel, and the exact same tactical decisions another 10 times they may make it 9 of those times. But Fredi Gonzalez is the same manager either way. The process is flawed. Talent overcoming those flaws does not a good manager make. He is the manager this year. No changing that at this point. But he should be evaluated on the process, not the results. If the process if found lacking I hope the Braves front office responds appropriately.
Hillbilly D
February 20th, 2012
8:44 pm
The Marlins have improved on paper but given Reyes’ injury history, Ramirez reluctance to move to 3B and the fact that Ozzie and Big Z are both, shall we say, volatile, they probably won’t be able to close the deal.
Wink
February 20th, 2012
9:55 pm
This Do-Nothing Off Season is Officially the Bounce Back Season!
Okay we had a horrendous end to the 2011 season. Losing 20 games in 30 days…missing out on what appeared to be a guaranteed playoff spot. From a team standpoint can we bounce back from that?
We overused our bullpen…did we learn the lesson for that mishap?
Freddi could not right the ship going down the stretch…surly that want happen again…worth waiting to see?
Expressed off season needs a Shortstop & Corner Outfield with power…we can wait a season. Why Chipper’s 10 mil comes off the books when he retires & Lowes 10 mil comes off the books, thats 20 mil, plus any salary increase in payroll we can go shopping in the off season.
Can Heyward bounce back with the bat?
Will Prado bounce back and give us the production in the outfield?
Will Chipper stay healthy and continue to provide power…also hitting coach in training?
Will the hitting coaches make a difference in providing answers for struggling players?
Jurgens & Hanson will bounce back from health concerns and return to form…if not off season trading chips if not at trade deadline?
Will Freeman go thru the sophmore jinx like Heyward did…have to wait and see?
Give Pastornicky the shortstop job…can he handle the defensive side, if not shop in off season???
Will Bourne play fast out the gate from spring training, provide the leadoff hitter for the future, before offering new contract…will have money to spend to retain him…as payroll comes off the books?
Will McCann be McCann and increase his power number?
So with bounce back questions answered by the end of next season…I am okay with doing nothing…as long as we go shopping next year to get what we need to fix the team and not HOARD THE CASH!!!
Disgusted
February 20th, 2012
10:00 pm
Misplaced optomisim. This is a bad team with terrible ownership and management and they plain choked in September, and this should never be forgiven or forgotten.
This was worse than the Public School cheating scandal, the worst thing in the history if this city.
This will never be recovered from. September of 2011 is the worst thing in the history of the world.
Disgusted
February 20th, 2012
10:05 pm
Waaaay too many negative comments here – spring training has just begun!!
@Brownie—You cannot put enough negative comments after what happened. Plain and simple.
The excuse makers are the ones who will wake up bitterly disappointed. It might have been okay for some fans, but not for me, you cannot rip these guys enough after what happened. This franchise is a disgrace and are controlled by cutting costs—there is no future here.
Another decade and the Braves are going by way of the Flames and Thrashers because of cheap ownership and a fan base that is getting more and more alienated.
Disgusted
February 20th, 2012
10:10 pm
Wink—This ownership group is likely to do little or nothing next yr, there is no possible way one can have hope given the bad TV deal and cost conscious above all else ownership.
Before long, this team might be going the way of the Thrashers and Flames given how this TV deal has sentenced them to a 90 mil payroll for another 20 yrs.
What is that going to be in 2020 something? There is NO hope.
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
10:42 pm
BTW – While bashing the team, I’m sure most folks will still watch – so here is a heads up for DIRECTV SUBSCRIBERS.
In case you haven’t heard, Peachtree TV is being dropped from their programming, so if you haven’t called DirecTV to complain yet – best you get on it or you will miss a number of games this year!
Sobriety
February 20th, 2012
10:51 pm
Two observations
1.We have a $14M anchor at third. And I don’t mean that in a good way.
2.It is not a question of whether the Braves will break your heart, buy rather a question of when.
Sobriety
February 20th, 2012
10:58 pm
One more thing–this season brings to memory that season of yore when the Braves’ marketing slogan went something like this: “Not too shabby.”
I think I was able to move freely from seat to seat that season.
Arnold Ziffel
February 21st, 2012
12:12 am
Empty seat syndrome going to hit Turner Field and Ga Dome hard this year- Philips is a given every year the Spirit ownership continues. Falcons ticket prices are ridiculously high for an unexciting team in that sterile environment. With Braves, you can get a deal here and there and get to sit outside and enjoy the day or evening. Either way, hard to justify paying all that money and fighting the traffic when the best seat is at home with HDTV. With a highly competitive team on the field, the story to be in attendance becomes more compelling. Don’t think I’ll have to worry about that anytime soon since we’re in the land of ATL mediocrity.
Arnold Ziffel
February 21st, 2012
12:27 am
I said to be happy with Division Titles back in the 90’s and 00’s when we had the talent to win it all. Now that we can’t seem to win anything, I’m going for broke and saying World Series titles or bust! Come on out people- buy tickets, beer, popcorn, hotdogs, and more beer to support my prognostication. Don’t be swayed by the national media guys who say we have no chance. See you at the Fred!
- John Scheurputz
BRAVESNATION4EVER
February 21st, 2012
8:49 am
Of course it has always been World Series or bust in Atlanta and especially in Atlanta because the BRAVES have always wanted to win the World Series,they have never even wanted stupid October appearances because the BRAVES normally do that every year and it’s always been a total disappointment if they don’t win it all so we would love to win it all in 2012 and totally beyond.GO BRAVES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!