Are the do-nothing Braves in dire divisional peril? Probably not
The bat and the gloves belong to Chipper Jones. I assume the tattoo does, too. (AP photo)
Two reasons the Braves’ subdued offseason has been poorly received by many locals: The 2011 season didn’t end well, and other members of the National League East have made bigger personnel noise. (It would, we can agree, be hard to make less noise than simply paying Derek Lowe to go away.)
Conventional wisdom holds that the Braves have been content to sit idle while the rest of the division moves onward and upward, but conventional wisdom can sometimes be less than wise. As pitchers and catchers set to work at Lake Buena Vista — if you can call what transpires in spring training “work” — let’s eyeball the Eastern bloc:
Philadelphia Phillies (finished 102-60 last season, 13 games ahead of the Braves): Lost closer Ryan Madson but added closer Jonathan Papelbon; lost left fielder Raul Ibanez and starting pitcher Roy Oswalt; will be without first baseman Ryan Howard, who tore his Achilles tendon on the final play of the Division Series, probably until Memorial Day.
Unless Vance Worley and Joe Blanton fall to pieces, the Phillies shouldn’t miss Oswalt, who was the fourth of the Big Four, and Papelbon figures to be a slight upgrade on Madson. But the everyday eight will struggle without Howard, and even his biggest years seem behind him. At 32, he’s the youngest among starting infielders. (And catcher Carlos Ruiz is 33, and center fielder Shane Victorino is 31.)
Starting pitching and the 2011 deadline addition of Hunter Pence should enable the Phillies to bleed out one more division title — that’ll make six in a row — but Philly’s window is closing. Last season’s Round 1 exit puts even more pressure on this aging team.
Washington Nationals (finished 80-81, 8 1/2 games behind the Braves: Added starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson and relievers Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin; lost Livan Hernandez, who made it his lot in life to beat the Braves 10 times a year for the past 50 years. (Slight exaggeration, but you get the idea.)
The Nationals have targeted this as their year of arrival: The famous pitcher Stephen Strasburg should be recovered from his 2010 surgery, and the almost-as-famous hitting prospect Bryce Harper could be in the starting lineup on Opening Day. (And there’s another big hitter — third baseman Anthony Rendon — in the chain.)
The elder Nats, however, are less imposing. Outfielder Jayson Werth hit .232 on the first year of his $126-million contract. Shortstop Ian Desmond has made 77 errors the past two seasons. The first baseman is Adam LaRoche, who’s 32 and is coming off shoulder surgery.
New York Mets (finished 77-85, 12 games behind the Braves): Lost shortstop Jose Reyes and outfielder Angel Pagan; added closer Frank Francisco.
There’s not much to say. Owing to their Bernie-Madoff-incurred financial straits, the Mets have little to spend and are all but bereft of top-shelf talent. They should finish last by some distance.
Miami Marlins (finished 72-90, 17 games behind the Braves): Hired Ozzie Guillen as manager; added shortstop Jose Reyes, closer Heath Bell and starting pitchers Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano; lost starting pitcher Javier Vazquez.
It’s a toss-up as to which NL’Easter is more pumped for 2012 — Washington or the team formerly known as the Florida Marlins. The Fish will move into their new downtown ballpark, which comes equipped with a retractable roof and actual fish tanks behind home plate, and they’ve spent nearly $200 million of fixer-upper money on free agents. Even Phillies manager Charlie Manuel indicated he sees the Marlins as the “biggest threat.”
But are they? The advent of Reyes means incumbent shortstop Hanley Ramirez will move to third base, and Ramirez has already expressed differing emotions about the move. Zambrano’s temperament can render his arm ineffective, and No. 1 starter Josh Johnson missed nearly all of last season with shoulder soreness. On paper, this seems a good team. On the field, it could be rather less.
Projections: The Braves chose to do little over the offseason because they believe enough players who had bad years will remember who they are, or were. That’s a risk, yes, but it’s a considered one. Much went wrong for the 2011 Braves, and still they won 89 games. Before we wring our hands over the possibility of them being passed in the standings, we need ask: Are the young Nationals capable of improving by 10 games? Are the new-look Marlins primed to improve by 18?
Much has changed, but really not much has changed. The Braves figure to be the second-best team in the East and the National League team best equipped to draw the wild card. Given that the wild-card holder wound up winning the 2011 World Series, that’s not such a bad place to be.
By Mark Bradley
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217 comments Add your comment
George Stein
February 20th, 2012
3:19 pm
His obsession with bunting is ridiculous, Mark.
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
3:20 pm
Fredi may be exposed this season. Starting every interview the same and tipping his cap all the time will catch up with him. We was wondering last year if he watched the same game we did. One game we watched in person and wish we hadn’t was during Derek Lowe’s Farewell Tour when he went 2 1/3 innings with 6 runs on 9 hits and then they gave the ball to Linebrink. We was never so disappointed. We remember some bad ballgames since we became a Braves fan but that one took the cake doughnut as Chipper might say. Playng baseball is a very serious thing for us and we like to see players play like they care about themselves and the team and the fans and the integrity of the game. When we see sissies out there tanking like Lowe did we have to tip our cap to the other team for taking what Fredi gave them and beating the stew out of us with it. Fredi may not be over-matched but we’d bet on it based on what we’ve seen. When he gets his coaches off the golf course maybe he can get the baseball issues cleared up.
George Stein
February 20th, 2012
3:22 pm
Fredi also completely abused his bullpen, Detroit. I think you and I are on the same page in spending in the draft, although now we are at a huge disadvantage with the new CBA.
Hillbilly D
February 20th, 2012
3:24 pm
I’m not a Braves fan but if I was, I don’t think I’d be panicking just yet.
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
3:25 pm
Mark, Adfam LaRoche is sporting a new Buck Commander tattoo and if anyone can look as stupid as Chipper, he may have done it. Now, we know we’re not supposed to say Chipper and stupid in the same post and we were trying not to do it but just like Lord Beaverbrook used to say, “you’re going to read it in the papers anyway.” We suggest Googling LaRoche Deer Tattoo for your amusement and viewing pleasure. A man can get very lonely in the woods.
DetroitBraves
February 20th, 2012
3:25 pm
@George Stein, I actually cringe a little when I criticize their drafts. Not because of what they have done recently, I mean they clearly have not done well, but I don’t know enough about the new CBA to formulate much of an informed opinion yet going forward. What little I do know does not sound encouraging.
George Stein
February 20th, 2012
3:32 pm
Take a look at this nonsense, Detroit.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2011/2612639.html
Then consider the Braves will have the 26th most money to spend in the draft this year. We will have $4.03MM to spend on our top ten picks while the Twins will have $12.368MM to spend on theirs.
Marteen is a Ballplayer
February 20th, 2012
3:34 pm
As much as I support the Braves here today and have in the past, I am completely on-board with having my doubts about Fredit Gonzalez. If anything brings out negativity with me and the Braves it is Fredi G. His game managing decisions are suspect at best and I still can’t shake the memory of him not standing up for McCann last year.
Cox had his questionable moments as well, but I would love to have him in the dugout as opposed to Fredit G.
Joey
February 20th, 2012
3:36 pm
Damn, that’s (buck commander) some stupid stuff. Can’t believe grown men are that idiotic. It takes a bunch of skill to sit in a deer stand and kill a big buck who is 1) headed to a pile of corn to feed, or 2) headed to a doe who is in heat, then shooting him at 80 yards with a high powered rifle that could kill said buck at 10x that distance.
Larry
February 20th, 2012
3:36 pm
Sonny,
You have to remember none of these goobers could so much as sort mail if they couldn’t time a fastball for a living.
Just look up all of the college degrees for Major League and NBA players and this is why you see more tattoos than brains.
Crickets…
How nice it was to see the one well educated person, Tony La Russa, win it all again for the third time while Fruiti G. was “tipping his cap” watching it all on TV.
Brave Hokie
February 20th, 2012
3:38 pm
It’s Feb 20th, Chipper is fat, and Braves suck…
1eyedJack
February 20th, 2012
3:53 pm
Let’s hope that’s the hardest Hanson gets hit all year.
Joey, it ain’t quite as simple as you make it sound, and hunting over a pile of corn is illegal.
ExBraves Fan
February 20th, 2012
3:57 pm
The Braves NEED to get off to a fast start while Phillie strives to get their team going. No Howard, Raul, etc. Braves can get a step on them if they play well in April and May before Howard has a chance to get back and going. Every loss in those months counts. The Braves can handle the loss of Hudson for a month. Plenty of arms. They HAVE TO HIT. The players they have HAVE TO HIT. That is what is important for this team. Ugly has to get off to a better start. Chipper has to stay on the field. Heygoodheywood has to come back. McCannnnnnn has GOT to come back with his power bat. A good start and maintaining that early is important. The Marlins will be without Johnson at full strength and the Nats are still trying to get theirselves going. They HAVE to get a strong start and maintain it. A 25-10 to 24-12 start would give them something to build on.
Lee
February 20th, 2012
4:02 pm
no mention that tim hudson is out for at least a month there mark?
Joey
February 20th, 2012
4:07 pm
In Georgia it is illegal, 1eyedJack. In most states, Florida and Texas included it is legal to hunt deer, hogs, etc over a corn pile.
And it is pretty simple at private ranches where the wealthy owners have imported trophy deer and usually other exotic animals in fenced portions of their ranch, and thus is just a matter of conditions to kill a buck, and sometimes a trophy.
I hunted in many states, including GA, FL, AL, KY, CO, NM backin the day, before I outgrew the passion for killing animals, at age of 28. If you have the money to hunt at “managed” ranches, you could get a deer or most any other animal, if you could shoot straight.
Hillbilly D
February 20th, 2012
4:11 pm
I quit hunting years ago, so I really don’t have a dog in this fight but what they do at those “managed ranches” doesn’t have a thing to do with hunting, in my opinion.
Joey
February 20th, 2012
4:20 pm
That’s true Hillbilly. I still read about it, as well as keep up with the game laws in GA. The legalizing of hunting over baited fields failed in the GA legislature a few years back, but most states are going to it.
In my hunting days, it was a well-placed tree-climber in a tall pine tree that got a trophy, not a heated ground stand with a wash-tub full of shelled corn about 50 yds away, in a mowed rye field.
The rut
February 20th, 2012
4:25 pm
Get back to me when F. Gonzalez is fired and I’ll jump back on board. He would screw up an All-Star team
2012 Preseason Fulmer Cup Champs
February 20th, 2012
4:46 pm
“Are the do-nothing Braves in dire divisional peril? ”
Yes, and next week you’ll write a column about how the Braves will win the World Series.
2012 Preseason Fulmer Cup Champs
February 20th, 2012
4:47 pm
“Given that the wild-card holder wound up winning the 2011 World Series, that’s not such a bad place to be.”
It helps when your team has a great manager, Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter.
x senator
February 20th, 2012
4:48 pm
The Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources is a money making machine because they understand the redneck mind and are only too happy to take their money.
The Bravenator
February 20th, 2012
4:51 pm
Guys, this ain’t that hard. It’s all about the Ifs. If Uggla, Heyward and Prado all wake up and remember who they are….If Chipper holds up for 120 games….If FG doesn’t screw up the bullpen now that there’s some hopefully better talent at the back end….If Pastornicky can hold down SS and hit even a little….If assorted dings heal and dents get pounded out, then the Braves will challenge Philly for the East title. Otherwise, it’s third or fourth depending upon how the Marlins and Nationals fare with their Ifs. It could go either way. No secret the Braves still need to get another decent outfield bat. However, this isn’t really trade season and the FA pickings are pretty slim. Hope springs eternal as they say.
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
4:53 pm
I look at whether the Marlins can make up the 17 (not 18) games they finished behind the Braves last year a little different.
Braves went 12-6 against them last year, so with Marlins improvement, if they can split the series 9-9 this coming year (not hard to do at all) – that makes it 11 games for them to improve in the other 144 they play – again, not real hard to do.
Additionally, Mark, you make no mention of the Marlins getting Josh Johnson (legitimate Cy Young candidate), who was limited to just 9 starts last year and is now healthy.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a lifelong Braves fan, but not about to assume or presume that we are still the 2nd best in our division based solely on how far last year we finished above the 2 teams that figure to field a much better team this time around.
bvillebaron
February 20th, 2012
4:55 pm
Mark:
Your article is spot on. As I have said repeatedly, despite the dire predicitons of the doom and gloomers, the Braves, even as presently constituted, are at least the second best team in the NL East. Their pitching 1 through 12 may well be even better than the Phils. As you or one of the other posters pointed out, all of the lineups in the NL East have their own questions and offensive issues. With the possible exception of Buorn, who will be here from day one this year rather than only for the last 2 months, NONE of the Braves regulars had even an average season last year and Heyward had a terrible sophomore slump (he won’t be the first or the last). The chances of that happening again are slim. I personally look for Prado and Heyward to both have bounce back seasons this year.
For the life of me, I can’t understand those posters who continue to wring their hands over the fact that Hudson, Jurrjens and Hanson are coming off injuries( only the latter of which involves his pitching arm), yet presumably assume that Strasburg, who is coming off TJ surgery and does not yet have Hanson’s level of success or credentials in the bigs, is going to be healthy all year and kick you know what.
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
4:57 pm
Apologies, My bad – Johnson was indeed mentioned in the article – but the problem was you stated he having still undiagnosed shoulder soreness while the fact is he is throwing 3 days a week, pain free and is expected to be their opening day starter.
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
4:59 pm
@bvillebaron: You do know that Hudson sill miss a minimum of a month to start the season, right?
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:02 pm
I still haven’t figured out why they call them “Marlins.” That is roughly equivalent to calling our boys the “Braveses.”
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:02 pm
How about those Crimson Tides?
Skeezix
February 20th, 2012
5:04 pm
I don’t have Mark’s confidence about the postseason. I agree the Phils will not be as good. I do think the Nats and Fish will be better and my guess today is that the Braves will be about the same. If Bourne/Prado/Uggla/Mccann/Freeman/Heyward all have solid offensive years, then we probably will make the postseason-if the pitching is as solid as it was April thru August 2011. With the lineup we have and the questions about the health of JJ and Hanson, we just don’t have any margin for error.
atlchris77
February 20th, 2012
5:06 pm
All i know is they have not created any desire to rush and buy tickets!
atlchris77
February 20th, 2012
5:10 pm
Delbert, what would you call them besides Marlins?
atlchris77
February 20th, 2012
5:12 pm
Are you saying that Marlin is already plural?
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
5:14 pm
We was reading Chipper’s Double Dime website and we was thinking about going out there to kill something and see if we can get Chipper to autograph it for less than $100. Do you think he’ll do it? Or will he want full price? We thought if it was on his ranch maybe he’d cut us a deal. Would we have a better chance if we got a deer tattoo? If Chipper and LaRoche was in the woods together and they was talking would you have to be a deer to hear them? Would you have to be a deer to understand them? If Chipper is as fat as he appears in today’s paper do you think Fredi may ask him to run and participate in some conditioning this year? If Fredi does do you think Fredi will keep his job?
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:15 pm
The correct term is “marlin”, singular or plural. Same for “buffalo” and “deer.” A herd of buffalo, a school of marlin. I have never heard anybody, even from my small town Georgia upbringing say, “Let’s go catch us some basses.”
Farnsworthy
February 20th, 2012
5:16 pm
It is perfectly okay to use Marlins for the plural of Marlin—look it up. We don’t say ‘Braveses’ because Braves is already plural.
Sometimes it is even proper to say fishes…………like when referring to several species of fish.
vesaversa
February 20th, 2012
5:17 pm
Dame the parent company that own the Braves should free this team by selling them to the highest bidder .
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:17 pm
“Whales” is okay. If they renamed them the Miami Whales, all would be right in the universe.
BraveMan
February 20th, 2012
5:18 pm
Still need some RBIs out of an outfielder to contend.
david10605
February 20th, 2012
5:19 pm
We should be finishing in last place every year, probably will come in the next decade, what with the absentee ownership, insider fixed tv contract of Time Warner, and knowledgeable fans like Sonny Clusters. The Braves have the best “baseball people” in baseball, it’s not really close. You’d have to know something about baseball to realize this. If winning a major league baseball division for fourteen straight years seems like a nothing accomplishment to you, you’re not going to see this. I really can’t imagine why you’d waste your time commenting on the Braves in that case. Oh, yeah, I guess if I were the most important person in the world, I’d be commenting all the time too. I love the Braves, I have for over forty years, no matter what… it’s called being a fan, I think. But you better check that out with the geniuses on this blog first.
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:23 pm
Farnsworthy – Don’t go all biblical on me, with the “fishes.” Although, I did see “The Godfather” Saturday night, and according to the script, “Luca Brasi sleeps with the fishes.”
I give up. Marlins. I think the Braves could finish closer to the Phillies this season and take the wildcard. I am glad to see that Hanson is correcting his hinky arm motion; that has always looked to me like an elbow repair waiting to happen.
Steve
February 20th, 2012
5:23 pm
Sonny Clusters why don’t you use proper English when typing your little blogs?
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
5:25 pm
Let’s say LaRoche is in town with the Nationals and Frank Wren gets Ed Mangen to put some corn down around first base and somebody lets a deer loose sorta like that Rally Squirrel in St. Louis. We was wondering if the deer was to wander down to first base would LaRoche try to (1) engage him in uh, conversation, (2) kill him before he could eat all the corn, or (3) hold the deer still while Chipper tries to shoot him from the dugout? We was wondering.
cowdogit
February 20th, 2012
5:27 pm
The only reason the brave,s have not made a trade is because no one want’s any of the brave’s player’s.
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:28 pm
When addressing Sonny Clusters, “y’all” is preferable to “you.” When I lived in South Jersey, “youse” would be appropriate.
Why did my post about the Braves closing on the Phillies this year and gaining the wildcard not pass the censor? Also, I’m glad that Hanson has changed his throwing motion. The old arm motion hurt my elbow just to watch it.
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
5:28 pm
Steve, we look to you for our inspiration. Some of your posts are so well done that we wouldn’t presume to compete with you for grammatical excellence. We was honor students at Parkview but that was public school.
Gwinnett Fred
February 20th, 2012
5:28 pm
Continue to wonder why people basically only refer to the injury comebacks from JJ & Hanson. They are much farther along than Hudson – who will miss at least his first 6 starts.
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:31 pm
Maybe the post got censored because I mentioned that, according to the script of “The Godfather”, which I watched Saturday night, “Luca Brasi sleeps with the fishes”.
George Stein
February 20th, 2012
5:31 pm
The one thing we shouldn’t do is judge Bourne’s performance – or anyone else’s, for that matter – on the number of RBI he has.
George Stein
February 20th, 2012
5:32 pm
Sorry, I read the prior comment as centerfielder, not outfielder. But my point remains.
Delbert D.
February 20th, 2012
5:32 pm
cowdogit – Thanks for your support!