Are the do-nothing Braves in dire divisional peril? Probably not
The bat and the gloves belong to Chipper Jones. I assume the tattoo does, too. (AP photo)
Two reasons the Braves’ subdued offseason has been poorly received by many locals: The 2011 season didn’t end well, and other members of the National League East have made bigger personnel noise. (It would, we can agree, be hard to make less noise than simply paying Derek Lowe to go away.)
Conventional wisdom holds that the Braves have been content to sit idle while the rest of the division moves onward and upward, but conventional wisdom can sometimes be less than wise. As pitchers and catchers set to work at Lake Buena Vista — if you can call what transpires in spring training “work” — let’s eyeball the Eastern bloc:
Philadelphia Phillies (finished 102-60 last season, 13 games ahead of the Braves): Lost closer Ryan Madson but added closer Jonathan Papelbon; lost left fielder Raul Ibanez and starting pitcher Roy Oswalt; will be without first baseman Ryan Howard, who tore his Achilles tendon on the final play of the Division Series, probably until Memorial Day.
Unless Vance Worley and Joe Blanton fall to pieces, the Phillies shouldn’t miss Oswalt, who was the fourth of the Big Four, and Papelbon figures to be a slight upgrade on Madson. But the everyday eight will struggle without Howard, and even his biggest years seem behind him. At 32, he’s the youngest among starting infielders. (And catcher Carlos Ruiz is 33, and center fielder Shane Victorino is 31.)
Starting pitching and the 2011 deadline addition of Hunter Pence should enable the Phillies to bleed out one more division title — that’ll make six in a row — but Philly’s window is closing. Last season’s Round 1 exit puts even more pressure on this aging team.
Washington Nationals (finished 80-81, 8 1/2 games behind the Braves: Added starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson and relievers Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin; lost Livan Hernandez, who made it his lot in life to beat the Braves 10 times a year for the past 50 years. (Slight exaggeration, but you get the idea.)
The Nationals have targeted this as their year of arrival: The famous pitcher Stephen Strasburg should be recovered from his 2010 surgery, and the almost-as-famous hitting prospect Bryce Harper could be in the starting lineup on Opening Day. (And there’s another big hitter — third baseman Anthony Rendon — in the chain.)
The elder Nats, however, are less imposing. Outfielder Jayson Werth hit .232 on the first year of his $126-million contract. Shortstop Ian Desmond has made 77 errors the past two seasons. The first baseman is Adam LaRoche, who’s 32 and is coming off shoulder surgery.
New York Mets (finished 77-85, 12 games behind the Braves): Lost shortstop Jose Reyes and outfielder Angel Pagan; added closer Frank Francisco.
There’s not much to say. Owing to their Bernie-Madoff-incurred financial straits, the Mets have little to spend and are all but bereft of top-shelf talent. They should finish last by some distance.
Miami Marlins (finished 72-90, 17 games behind the Braves): Hired Ozzie Guillen as manager; added shortstop Jose Reyes, closer Heath Bell and starting pitchers Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano; lost starting pitcher Javier Vazquez.
It’s a toss-up as to which NL’Easter is more pumped for 2012 — Washington or the team formerly known as the Florida Marlins. The Fish will move into their new downtown ballpark, which comes equipped with a retractable roof and actual fish tanks behind home plate, and they’ve spent nearly $200 million of fixer-upper money on free agents. Even Phillies manager Charlie Manuel indicated he sees the Marlins as the “biggest threat.”
But are they? The advent of Reyes means incumbent shortstop Hanley Ramirez will move to third base, and Ramirez has already expressed differing emotions about the move. Zambrano’s temperament can render his arm ineffective, and No. 1 starter Josh Johnson missed nearly all of last season with shoulder soreness. On paper, this seems a good team. On the field, it could be rather less.
Projections: The Braves chose to do little over the offseason because they believe enough players who had bad years will remember who they are, or were. That’s a risk, yes, but it’s a considered one. Much went wrong for the 2011 Braves, and still they won 89 games. Before we wring our hands over the possibility of them being passed in the standings, we need ask: Are the young Nationals capable of improving by 10 games? Are the new-look Marlins primed to improve by 18?
Much has changed, but really not much has changed. The Braves figure to be the second-best team in the East and the National League team best equipped to draw the wild card. Given that the wild-card holder wound up winning the 2011 World Series, that’s not such a bad place to be.
By Mark Bradley
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217 comments Add your comment
nashvillewill
February 20th, 2012
1:46 pm
Gonzales back as manager is biggest concern. Did he learn from the mistakes that cost the Braves at least 10 games and the WC? Way too many IF’s to suggest this team is more than .500. Among the biggest IF’s: Chipper, Heyward, Uggla, Hudson, Hanson, rookie pitchers, Prado. Very few solid answers.
Klaus
February 20th, 2012
1:48 pm
I don’t think anything McGuirk says should be quoted with any regard or admiration. He is an empty suit who was in a position of influence when TW & the Braves FO signed that terrible 25yr TV deal.
He conveniently acts like he had nothing to do with it yet on the other side of his face he says TW and now Liberty leave him in charge of everything.
The Braves stood pat b/c their budget is on complete lock down. No other reason.
Marteen is a Ballplayer
February 20th, 2012
1:50 pm
DEBravesFan…couldn’t agree more. Please don’t let old age make you bitter like so many of the bloggers on here before the first game is even played.
Klaus
February 20th, 2012
1:51 pm
2013 will be the Braves years. 2012 is a year you have to get through. Chipper looks pretty old and out of shape. Heyward, Prado and Pastornicky have various levels of question marks.
Uggla should be better than 2011 in the 1H but he is not going to hit .310 and 120 RBIs either.
Hudson down until May is not ideal b/c after Lowe he was the only pitcher in the rotation capable of pitching late into games to save the pen.
Hope will spring eternal this ST but the reality is this team is still without the proper LF bat and has a low experience rookie at SS who is a complete ? on which way he could go.
Joey
February 20th, 2012
1:52 pm
“…Chipper isn’t going to lead us to a Championship with his bat, but he is still one of the most reliable third-baseman in the game…”
*************************************************
How so? He gets to almost no balls in gaps, he misses hard hit balls right at him often, and gets probably 2 of 10 outs when he charges slow rollers or bunts.
I think his hitting is the most valuable asset.
Phlegm Lattimore
February 20th, 2012
1:52 pm
I played a little ball in my time and I can tell you that Chipper Jones has, too. I bet he smells like Ben Gay and that is something I would never want to smell like in a major league dugout. A lot of people on here are proud of Chipper and then there’s a few that seem to want to make fun of him about how he grunts and talks so much like a Golden Retriever. I think he deserves our respect and I for one am going to see if I can get him to autograph one of the taillights on my pickup so that I can show some love everytime I hit my brakes.
Joey
February 20th, 2012
1:53 pm
Chipper is the perfect DH for the Yankees or Sox . . .
Dennis
February 20th, 2012
1:55 pm
I think it was former VP Spiro Agnew who used the term “nattering nabobs of negativism”. Methinks a boatload of nabobs are right here on this blog. Good grief! I am forever confused with the things I read here. 89 wins without Prado playing at full health; without JJ and Hanson on the stretch run; with Heyward going through his struggles; with McCann never returning to full health after his oblique strain; and here we are again. I think there are prob ably 25 cities that would kill for what Atlanta has and all I read here is a steady chant of fire everyone. Budgets are budgets (unless you are the Obama administration) and Liberty has one that limits what Wren can do. I want a Mercedes but can’t see buying one with what I have to spend. I wish for a lot of things for the Braves, but given the limitations of budget, I am pleased with what they have and what I believe will be the end result at season’s end.
Marteen is a Ballplayer
February 20th, 2012
1:56 pm
Joey, I was referring to his bat in the line-up, though I don’t see him being nearly as bad defensively as you seem to think he is. I have seen some dynamite plays over at third-base…still, I wouldn’t put him better than middle of the pack in the MLB defensively.
Braves Fan Since 1966
February 20th, 2012
1:57 pm
When an 89 – 73 team has a starter with a 9 – 17 record and ejects him, that’s a big deal in and of itself. If Lowe had just been a .500 pitcher then the Braves would have been 93 – 69 team. With that said, I think they need another right handed hitter who can hit 15 – 20 HRs.
Bruce Benedict
February 20th, 2012
1:58 pm
Chipper looks like he spent most of the off-season on the sofa eating ice cream, but I bet he’ll still probably hit more homers than Jay Hey. Either way, I’m sure Fredi will be “proud” of them when they come up short again.
Peter
February 20th, 2012
2:01 pm
I’m sick of people blaming Fredi for overworking the pen last year. What was he supposed to do? The Braves led the league in extra inning games, the middle relief guys gave him no confidence whatsoever, the starting pitchers couldn’t go deep into games,and about 75% of the Braves wins were by three runs or less, so the offense was not giving them the add-on runs they needed to give the pen a break. It was basically a perfect storm to have no choice but to overwork the big three.
1eyedJack
February 20th, 2012
2:03 pm
I’m going to go ahead and tip my cap to all the teams the Braves are going to play…Just in case.
DEBravesFan
February 20th, 2012
2:04 pm
Marteen…. I am just tired of everyone else here who is a “fan” basically ruling this team out before ST even started. As far as Jason it comes down to which do you believe his rookie year or last year? It seems like everyone thinks last year would be his “normal” year. The guys dropped his should and elbow after his shoulder injury last year killing him and cause him to roll over everything.
NC Dawg
February 20th, 2012
2:04 pm
I think the Nats will play Morse over LaRoche @ 1B. Am I wrong?
Joey
February 20th, 2012
2:05 pm
Oh, I guess I read you wrong. No doubt his presence in the clubhouse is a plus. But man, I had to look away from a bunch of his (non)plays in the field last season. I saw many grounders that went by that he made NO move towards.
It’s not really Chipper’s fault – I mean he’s 40 (or very close). Unless you get on the juice (HGH), you lose the reflexes. Maybe some of us fans should get a HGH prescription and go leave it on Chippers doorstep! Currently ther are no tests for it – MLB just catches some players purchasing it.
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
2:05 pm
“Former Braves manager Bobby Cox was present for Sunday morning’s organizational meeting and spent the afternoon participating in a golf outing with members of the Major League and Minor League coaching staffs.”
Good to see the golfing’s already begun. Don’t let an EPIC Collapse and the need for some big changes in the way things are done get in the way.
bulldogbubba
February 20th, 2012
2:08 pm
Todays sports are like anything else in life.Its not what they can do for us, its what we can do for them.They can put a mediocre team on the field and expect the fans to pay top dollar to watch them choke.Derek Lowe was a disaster last September and the management knew just like the fans but they put him out there because of the ridiculous money they were paying him to “perform”.
Sonny Clusters I would love to see you at the first game at Turner Field with a flag saying “EPIC COLLASPE” on it. I would buy you a deer dog and take you for a dilly bar after the game.Maybe even take Mark with us and buy him one.
DEBravesFan
February 20th, 2012
2:09 pm
Thank you Peter. I agree the Braves also pitched the most innings in baseball. Not just due to extra inning games but also because on the road they had to pitch that extra inning occasionally
DawginLex
February 20th, 2012
2:09 pm
Philly 98-64
Miami 90-72
ATL 85-77
Wash 79-83
Mets 69-93
Marteen is a Ballplayer
February 20th, 2012
2:09 pm
DE, here’s hoping we see the year 1 Heyward…he wasn’t the same even in year 1 after steamrolling Nate in the outfield.
Joey, your points are valid…I just tend to get defensive with all the Chipper bashing. He is what he is at 3rd base…serviceable. I just wouldn’t trade him for many third baseman that are out there right now as far as his presence in the batter’s box and in the clubhouse. We are going to miss him when he is gone.
Peter
February 20th, 2012
2:11 pm
Miami will finish fourth, Nats are our biggest threat. Mark it down.
Peter
February 20th, 2012
2:14 pm
Phillies 95-67
Braves 92-70
Nats 90-72
Marlins 85-77
Mets 66-96
gt4ever
February 20th, 2012
2:15 pm
Bruce,
Not icecream…. There is a rumor that Chipper gets real excited when the Red light comes on at the Krispy Kreme…. mmmmmmm Good… He should be ashamed of himself….
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
2:18 pm
What’s the deal with the Braves players and all the One-Car-Crashes? Don’t they know it’s usually two cars that crash? If you’re not going to crash into another car, why crash at all? We was wondering.
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
2:19 pm
There’s something to be said for a box of doughnuts on a lonely deer stand.
Marteen is a Ballplayer
February 20th, 2012
2:20 pm
DawginLex…usually agree with you on the Dawg blogs, but I don’t see anyone winning 98 games in the East this year…just way too much infighting between the Phililes, Braves, Nats, and Marlins. I think 92, perhaps even 90, takes first this year.
Mike
February 20th, 2012
2:21 pm
Braves on course for repeat ! No upgrades equals same old same old!!
Mike
gt4ever
February 20th, 2012
2:22 pm
Sonny he looks about 3 months pregnant…. It’s really pretty pathetic…. A professional should take better care of himself…
T
February 20th, 2012
2:23 pm
Won 89…so they won 55% of the games they played. Yippee. I don’t see any improvement over last year and a nl central or west will get the wild card. Braves are old. Chipper should’ve quit when bobby did. 84 games this year and another if only we’d done this season
Nail on the Head
February 20th, 2012
2:25 pm
Terry McGuirk (loser) might want to check out the roster of the 1991-1993 Braves….built on free agency…what a douchebag remark to make.
DawginLex
February 20th, 2012
2:26 pm
Hope so but the teams all have deficiencies that the Phils don’t have. I hope I’m wrong.
George Stein
February 20th, 2012
2:29 pm
Washington is improved, but they’re not THAT improved. They’ll likely win around 85 games. Whether the increase is from teams in the East or from other teams on their schedule is unknown.
Klaus
February 20th, 2012
2:31 pm
Funny how given McGuirk’s TBS background that he would have stayed silent re: the ills of the current TV deal when it was inked.
“Terry McGuirk is currently the chairman of Major League Baseball’s Atlanta Braves. McGuirk has also been with Turner Broadcasting System since 1972, where he served as CEO from 1996 to 2001 and now serves as vice chairman”
Klaus
February 20th, 2012
2:31 pm
Tommy Hanson in car accident. Being checked for concussion. Blew a tire.
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
2:42 pm
We have to be careful what we say about Chipper but he doesn’t look like he’s in shape to us. He needs to get out on the golf course right now and get himself in shape. Some fishing would probably help, too. Not to mention the Daytona 500 and some funnel cakes and beer. We was reading where Chipper was hoping the young guys would report in shape for the season. We guess they’re lucky he didn’t step in a hole this year while a huntin’ and mess up his knee. In any case, we are sure Fredi and his staff will be all about the business of baseball now that they’ve got some golf in like they reported in the paper. One concern we have is there are so many Publix stores in Florida and they make a good doughnut. Keeping Chipper away from the doughnuts may be a good job for Bobby Cox now that he’s retired. Of course, we’d never share a box of doughnuts with Bobby Cox.
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
2:48 pm
“He ran off the road a little,” Wren said. “We don’t know a lot of details other than that. And he banged his head in the process. We’re just being cautious with him, making sure and getting him checked. He’s going to see a doctor just to double check, like we always do. There were no physical signs, other than he just doesn’t feel great.”
We remember when Rafael Furcal “ran off the road a little” over in Mableton. Running off the road a little is not something to play with. They had to tow the car so it must have been off the road a little and not able to get back on the road a lot. In any case, Hanson looks a little like Jesus now and he should be able to get out of those scrapes with no damage. We was wondering if Fredi is going to make Hanson clean up a little before donning the sharp new uniform without the tomahawk??
Felix
February 20th, 2012
2:49 pm
Due to their pathetic offense, the Braves I fear are DOA. I just hope they can squeak out 3rd place and also beat the Metropolitans’ brains out (remember last year against the Mets was not great).
DetroitBraves
February 20th, 2012
2:49 pm
Mark, I agree with you and Terry that free agency is inefficient. You’re paying for what a player has done, rather than what they will be worth in their decline years. I do with the Braves would spend a bit more liberally on the draft. Minor is fine and all, but lacks the upside of a #1 pick according to most while Gilmartin is even a step below that. Also agree that improving by as much as what the Nats and Marlins need to do will be difficult in one season. It’s not unprecedented but it’s not common either. Personally, I believe the Gio Gonzalez deal was one of the worst moves of the offseason. One of the others was Papelbon, who despite the reputation and the glittering save stat may actually not be any better than Ryan Madson. Having said all that, the one thing I wish the Braves had done was change managers. Of course, I knew they would not but it is their most obvious issue and the one where upside is most easily obtainable. Heyward may rebound, Uggla may have two halves, the pitching may stay healthy, etc., etc. but Fredi is just simply not very good at his job.
SeaAtl
February 20th, 2012
2:53 pm
Why do some people on here insist that “fan” = “cheerleader”?!
biff pocaroba
February 20th, 2012
2:56 pm
braves don’t have (or don’t want to spend)the money needed to contend with the phillies,the days of ted turners deep pockets are long over,ted turners money even made a fool like jon schuerholtz look competent
Klaus
February 20th, 2012
3:00 pm
FA do put fannies in the seats and give fans hope. They sell jerseys and help teams increase their value.
Sure many flop but many also put teams on the map.
Few teams win it all and or consistently win without dipping into FA now and then. The Braves abhor it b.c they are being squeezed by Liberty.
They are pulling the poor person model which is to lower your dreams to fit your income or in this case budget.
Give Wren 150mm payroll and he would be doing hand stands and back flips across the OF.
Seattle Braves Fan
February 20th, 2012
3:01 pm
I don’t understand why people make such a big deal about the braves doing nothing. 6 of our 8 starting position players have been an All-Star in one or both of the last two All-Star games and Freddie has a great shot of making it this year. And our pitching staff is one of the Best in the NL. It is not unreasonable to think our offence will bounce back.
Hooters Girl
February 20th, 2012
3:06 pm
Wren would have $$ for a outfielder if not for that $15M going to Mr Flu-Like-Symptoms-and-if-you-think-I-need-the-money-you-should-see-my-bank-account (Chipper).
DetroitBraves
February 20th, 2012
3:07 pm
Actually, what does Fredi Gonzalez do well? Most people out here seem to also be of the opinion he should be relieved of his duties. But for his apologists, what does he do well? I wish Frank Wren would come on here and answer that question. And not a bunch of touchy/feely things either, instead skills that can’t really be quantified or proven. Some tangible evidence of something Fredi Gonzalez does well. If Frank Wren can’t answer that question then the follow-up question is “what does Frank Wren do well?”
Mark Bradley
February 20th, 2012
3:12 pm
Fredi Gonzalez is, to borrow from Sonny Clusters, skilled at cap-tipping.
Yes, I’m kidding. But on a serious note: Don’t you think it’s a tad early to pass judgment on a manager?
Sonny Clusters
February 20th, 2012
3:12 pm
Somebody said it before us but we think a sign in the outfield that says 2102 EPIC Collapse would fit right in with those other silly little signs like the 2010 Wild Card Champion sign. If we was in charge of the Braves we would tell Fredi to make some changes and let everybody at camp know the first day that the Braves are going to play the best players and play hard all season. The two that played hardest last year in our opinion was Uggla and Bourn. They ran out everything and hustled more than anyone else on the team. Of course, both came out of other organizations just like Constanza who also ran fast and hard to base. The way some of the Braves pull up on their way to first means the other team never has to rush a throw and maybe make a mistake. We know one player that roots around when he’s on base and that is something he probably got from being out in the woods so much.
Mark Bradley
February 20th, 2012
3:14 pm
On a separate note: Is Mr. Sonny Clusters aware that Adam LaRoche has some sort of Buck Commander hunting show?
DetroitBraves
February 20th, 2012
3:16 pm
Mark, Fredi’s experience as a major league manager predates the Braves. Some of the tangible things a manager can do is manage the pitching staff, optimize a lineup, and make probability based in-game decisions. At what point has Fredi done this well either in Miami or Atlanta, and in which area has he shown improvement? I don’t know how shallow the pool of qualified managers is but I suspect it is not sufficiently shallow to have a contending team derailed by on-the-job training.
mark
February 20th, 2012
3:17 pm
How is telling the truth negative? Bottom line is the ownership is disengaged to say the least and we have set a budget of 90+ million and are never in the bidding for top flight free agents. I am not saying we to spend 250 million to be a better team, I am saying we need ownership that looks at this team as something more than a balance sheet entry. I love some of the guys on team McCann, Freeman, Venters, and Kimble are a core group worth getting excited about. But when you go into the off season and clearly need a left fielder and you do nothing counting on a third baseman that has not given you over 120 games in three season come on. Steve pull of your rose colored glasses and see the light, ownership could care less about this entity and the continued lack of accountability only dims the hopes of fans.