Are Dimitroff, Smitty and Matty Ice still right for the Falcons?
The general manager, the coach and the quarterback. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
More than just a giddy ride, the Falcons’ 2008 ascent from oblivion constituted a watershed: A franchise that had gotten a zillion things wrong got three major things right. In one offseason, the Falcons had found the right general manager, the right coach and the right quarterback. Could world domination be far behind?
Here it is 2012, and we’ve seen the Falcons fashion four consecutive winning seasons — this from an operation that had never known two in a row — and three playoff appearances. But there has been no Super Bowl surge, not even a postseason victory. And now we ask the chilling question: What if Thomas Dimitroff, Mike Smith and Matt Ryan weren’t the right guys after all?
Touting Thomas: The GM had a bravura beginning, landing Michael Turner in free agency and drafting a starting quarterback (Ryan), a starting left tackle (Sam Baker) and a starting middle linebacker (Curtis Lofton). Also included in that first class: Harry Douglas, the slot receiver; Kroy Biermann, who has started at defensive end, and Thomas DeCoud, now the free safety. In 2009 Dimitroff landed the All-Pro tight end Tony Gonzalez in a pre-draft trade. In 2010 he snagged linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, who’s a rising star, with the 19th overall pick, and in 2011 he traded up 21 spots to land Julio Jones, who’ll be an All-Pro soon, in the draft.
Doubting Thomas: Baker’s effectiveness has waned, and defensive lineman Peria Jerry, taken in Round 1 in 2009, got hurt and has done nothing. The big free-agent signings of 2010 and 2011 — cornerback Dunta Robinson and defensive end Ray Edwards — haven’t yet panned out. Of the nine Falcons named to Pro Bowl rosters over the past four seasons, only three were Dimitroff acquisitions. The defense, which ranked 24th in the 32-team NFL in 2008 and was summarily gutted, still hasn’t cracked the top 10 (it was 12th last season); the offense, which ranked sixth in 2008, has since finished 16th, 16th and 10th.
Touting Smitty: This coach has won 67.2 percent of his regular-season games, which trumps the winning percentages of Bill Belichick, Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy. Only in 2009 have Smith’s Falcons lost consecutive games, and not once over four seasons have they lost three in a row. He’s the only coach in Falcons history to post four winning seasons. (Leeman Bennett had three, Dan Reeves two.) Over those four seasons, the Falcons are 34-7 against teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs, which means that in an any-given-Sunday league they’re not given to lapses.
Doubting Smitty: He’s 0-3 in postseason games, and each time the Falcons entered with the better record. Over four regular seasons, Smith’s teams are 9-14 against eventual playoff qualifiers, which means they aren’t nearly as impressive when matched against teams of comparable worth. He’s 2-6 against New Orleans.
Touting Matty Ice: Ryan and Steve Bartkowski are the only quarterbacks to lead the Falcons to the playoffs three times. Over four seasons Ryan has thrown for 14,238 yards with 95 touchdown passes against 46 interceptions. He has presided over 11 fourth-quarter comebacks and led 16 game-winning drives, which beats Aaron Rodgers’ output (three and six) and is comparable to Drew Brees’ (12 and 17) over the past four years.
Doubting Matty Ice: He hasn’t finished higher than eighth in NFL in passer rating, and in yards per attempt — a key indicator — he ranked higher as a rookie (fifth) than as a fourth-year pro (15th). He made six turnovers in his first two playoff losses and couldn’t lead a scoring drive in the third. The Falcons are 3-12 in regular-season games when Ryan throws 40 or more passes, and he hasn’t had even a 200-yard game in the playoffs.
Conclusions (mine, anyway): I remain impressed with Dimitroff — the five-picks-for-Julio draft deal was a big risk that will yield a bigger reward — and see no reason why a coach capable of winning in the regular season won’t find playoff success. But Smith seemed stuck last season between his GM’s desire for a more “explosive” offense and coordinator Mike Mularkey’s more plodding scheme.
It’s the belief here that Mularkey, who left to become Jacksonville’s head coach, drummed the daring out of Ryan, and a championship quarterback cannot be timid. The hires of Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator and Pat Hill as line coach — each of whom should better fit Dimitroff’s vision of “urgency” — offer the chance for a needed offensive reboot.
Dimitroff, Smith and Ryan have done great work to lift the Falcons to a place where it’s possible to be disappointed in a playoff season, and they remain bright and driven men. But the job isn’t finished, and it wouldn’t be wise to let Arthur Blank begin to wonder, as infamously happened with another Falcons owner, if his beloved club has reached a plateau.
By Mark Bradley
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275 comments Add your comment
Mike FR
February 15th, 2012
6:35 pm
@Matt “CHOKE” Ryan … now all of the sudden a saints fan know all about winning tradition and continuity? haha give me a break…
Sorry for being happy about finally getting a tradition and being a team constantly mentioned on the playoffs… It’s something we’ve never had, and when it comes, I think it’s “ok” if we appreciate the people who have brought this. Of course you know all about this, the saints have always been contenders, they’re up there with the packers, steelers and all of those tradition teams.or not?
kingdaddy
February 15th, 2012
6:46 pm
I think T.D. is working hard to make the Falcons a consistently competitive team kinda like N.E.s franchise. Do you remember the Ain’ts? Paperbags on their heads but they turned it around and so have we. Just a little more people. I believe Mr.Blank will make the right decisions when it comes to his team. He’s a winner not a whiner. If he needs to get rid of Smitty or Matty, I’m sure he will. This is not a democracy, he owns it. Its better than what we had.?
Najeh Davenpoop
February 15th, 2012
6:49 pm
1. Maybe
2. Yes
3. No
kingdaddy
February 15th, 2012
6:57 pm
Also, I hate the ain’ts with every fiber of my being. They still have a great front office and you can never take them lightly. That’s why I think Mr.Blank needs to hire Carl Hicks away from them to protect Matt. Then get Mario Williams and we’re set for future.
Philip
February 15th, 2012
6:58 pm
C’mon guys lighten up!!!!!!! You all have a short memory. Not being satisfied with Matt Ryan and blaming him LAME. Think back, I can’t even remember the last sub-par QB we have had.Matt is going to be a GREAT QB…he just needed a decent OC.
Like one other blogger just said, I hope your bosses don’t have the same expectation of you and your jobs. Be thankful for what Dimitroff, Smith and Ryan have been doing. Yes, there have been some flops like Robinson, Edwards, Peira…but come on….love what we have.
jerry
February 15th, 2012
7:04 pm
If they had what it takes, they woulda done it by now.
Mark Bradley
February 15th, 2012
7:08 pm
Kingdaddy, I sat in on the conference calls for Koetter and Nolan last month and wrote about them then.
MSD
February 15th, 2012
7:12 pm
Funny, I thought this was Blanks decision, not a bunch on journalists and readers. Let’s stir the pot, find something controversial to yammer about. You can make that decision when you have something at stake.
kingdaddy
February 15th, 2012
7:26 pm
Thankyou M.B. I’ll backtrack. Hope there’s something more in-depth coming later this year. Would like to know if Smitty will turn them loose. Love the way you get the masses stirred up.
SawThat1nce
February 15th, 2012
7:41 pm
I think that Dimitroff needs to make some kind of showing this season.
He has got to get a better OLine, period.
As for as the comments being made about Ryan, it is kind of hard to throw down field, when you have around 2 seconds for the plays to develop, before the pass rush is eating you alive.
I hope that Mike Smith will let this new OC open up the offense.
If the Falcons can’t get a decent pass rush in place, the good QBs will continue to eat the defense up.
You look at the choices that the NO saint’s GM makes in personnel signings, and then look at the ones that Dimitroff makes, and it appears that the saints man is out-classing TD.
Big Crimson 75
February 15th, 2012
7:42 pm
1. Yes
2. No
3. Maybe
Hillbilly D
February 15th, 2012
7:59 pm
Get a better offensive line (and defensive line to a lesser extent) and TD, Smitty, and Ryan will look better. Fail to improve the lines and it’s the beginning of the end. Anybody who’s watched the Falcons since 1966, knows how fast the snowball can roll down the hill.
Jockich Ahn Smelley, II
February 15th, 2012
8:05 pm
Yes, Smitty, Dimi, and Matty Ice are right for the Falcons and Atlanta…..They are the BRAVES of the 1990’s!!! Not good enough for a Super Bowl Victory but a good product to offer to the ATL!
Nail on the Head
February 15th, 2012
8:05 pm
One of the best assessments you’ve made in some time MB. Imho, I think all three will be gone after two more seasons. Dimitroff’s drafing ability is about 50/50 so far…..same with his free-agent signings. Last I checked, .500 gets u fired in this league.
kingdaddy
February 15th, 2012
8:13 pm
Sorry Hillbilly, it doesn’t snow in Savannah and we don’t have hills. We do have a nice bridge though. Anyway, it’s not time for the Falcons Faithful to panic yet. Concerned, yes but its in good hands …
kingdaddy
February 15th, 2012
8:19 pm
Its funny how half the people on this blog see the glass half-empty and the other half see it half-full
Hillbilly D
February 15th, 2012
8:23 pm
half the people on this blog see the glass half-empty and the other half see it half-full
Either way, you still gotta wash the glass.
kingdaddy
February 15th, 2012
8:25 pm
@Hillbilly D
I agree with you about both lines and Savannah is overdue for Snow. Still ain’t got any hills. SCPD won’t let us play on bridge …
kingdaddy
February 15th, 2012
8:31 pm
@Hillbilly
You only have to wash half the glass.
kingdaddy
February 15th, 2012
8:48 pm
Half-full
Milledgeville Dawg
February 15th, 2012
9:22 pm
Bradley, you are an idiot. Go back to Louisville, Ky in a big hurry.
Kontract
February 15th, 2012
9:57 pm
Great work as usual Mark!
Joseph Allen McWhorter
February 15th, 2012
10:30 pm
There is no need to wonder about Dimitroff, coach Smitty, and Matty Ice still being the right men for the Falcons. They were four years ago and they still are. New hires for offensive and defensive coordinators should get much greater production. The Falcons will be in much better shape in the 2012 season. If this team can just win one playoff game, it will make all the difference in the world Just look at what it did for the Giants after they defeated the Falcons in early January. The Falcons will be fine. They are in much greater shape than the basketball Hawks. But that is another story.
tfalcon
February 15th, 2012
10:59 pm
@mark bradly i really think nolan was the best hire an yes even over spags in my opinion spags is over rated nolan resume is much more impressive sure spags has got a ring from 07 but that D was already there if u take that yr away what has he got just a decipule of jim johnson which is great.I just hope that smitty dont have a rope around is neck
tfalcon
February 15th, 2012
11:07 pm
@choke ryan to bad the taints aint got a board for u to play on u loser A$$
Mora less Petrino
February 15th, 2012
11:55 pm
We shall see what difference the new coordinators make. I believe the Falcons are a talented team that were held back by timid play calling. Get an offense that is more daring and improve the O line, which hopefully will give the Birds a few more minutes of time of possession in each game, and that can make a huge difference.
FalconJim
February 16th, 2012
12:41 am
Yes MB, Dimitroff, Smitty and Ice are still right for the Falcons…..right now.
But depending on how the next two seasons go, I might be inclined to change my mind. I’m willing to give this trio 2 more years to get it right, mainly because we don’t have a 1st round pick this year. Then if Dimmy pulls another bone-head stunt like he did last year, I’M DONE!!!
We should have got more help on “D” and O-line, instead of drafting ANOTHER WR. We had one of the best in White, and with HD coming back, and Gonzalez doing his thang, we didn’t need to do something that foolish! O. K., I’m done…..where’s the Tylenol?
GO, YOU DIRTY BIRDS!!!
tyger
February 16th, 2012
12:55 am
Mularkey drummed the daring out of Ryan?
The guy cant throw the ball 45 yards in the air…
He had 20 ints coming out of college…
When has there been any sign of “daring”?
Yes, he can throw the 15 yd out, that’s it, thats all…
Everything else is dink/dunk to the TE and curls…
He doesn’t have the arm to serve justice to Julio’s talents…
Not mentioning the “deer in the headlights” frozen stiff playoffs…
Playoffs! Playoffs! We were in the playoffs????
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 16th, 2012
1:32 am
All these excuses for CHOKE is so tiringgggggg………………..
2007 Ravens were 5-11
2007 Falcants were 4-12
Flacco got it done and CHOKE didn’t……………..end of conversation.
There is no excuse for CHOKING every season when your rival in Baltimore has ZERO 1 & dones.
There is no excuse for not getting your team in the endzone in the biggest game of the season.
There is no excuse for making the franchise wait 7+ seasons for another playoff win.
You LOSERS will be making excuses until CHOKE is in an old folks home
Luckily Blank is not giving this LOSER another contract. If he was anything close to the future, he would have a new contract by now.
Sorry LOSERS but the experiment is over and it FAILED
TRUEFAN
February 16th, 2012
1:58 am
For the last time people,Julio trade was 4 picks. WE SWAPPED FIRST ROUND PICKS WITH CLEVELAND LAST YEAR AND TOOK JONES.
Falcons
February 16th, 2012
2:44 am
With Eli, Drew, Aaron, and now Cam in the mix, the Falcons don’t have a snowballs chance in H3LL of making it to the SuperBowl!!!!!!
FL dawg
February 16th, 2012
6:36 am
Don’t the Falcons have enough WR’s? What would have been nice would to have VinceYoung on the sideline when Ryan couldn’t do squat against the Giants defense. Atl needs to get a QB to push Ryan, bet they’d get a first down on 4th and inches.
dan
February 16th, 2012
6:42 am
My thoughts on the Falcons
Mike Smith –I like what Smith has done for the Falcons franchise. However, someone is going to have to explain to me how his teams NEVER seem ready for the big stage. Why do good teams dominate the Falcons?And why can’t they seem to make adjustments when something is not working? There is more going on here than just coordinators. There are deeper problems with team philosophy and execution. I think Smith might be what I call a “fundamentals coach”, someone who can clean up a locker-room , add a few players, and win with a basic scheme. But like Jim Mora in Indy, he may be only able to take them so far. They may need another guy who can come in and that them over the top.
Matt Ryan – is he a good QB? Yes, I believe he is currently one of the top 10 best QB’s in the NFL. However, I am not sure what his ceiling is, and at this point, that is a problem. Can he develop more? I don’t know, but what I do know is worrisome. Why does he disappear in big games? Why – when surrounded by all pro’s, does the offense get embarrassed against quality competition? Was it play calling? More than likely. But what if Mularkey called vanilla offense because that is all Ryan can handle?
Thomas Dimitroff – Dimitroff has had some hits and some misses. Every GM misses, such is the nature of the game. HOWEVER, the single biggest question for this franchise moving forward is the Julio Jones trade. This could be Dimitroff’s crowning achievement or his Waterloo. For in this trade one has to ask the question; why try and change the entire makeup of what the team did well? Were there other forces at work? And if so, what were they? Dimitroff clearly tried to change the dynamic of the team, and so far it has yielded minimal results. So he either did not understand what the team’s identity was going into the draft – a problem – or he wasn’t aware of the limitations of the current players on his roster – a bigger problem. If the Falcons bottom out next year, Dimitroff’s head will be on the chopping block right alongside Smith’s.
dagnabit
February 16th, 2012
6:56 am
Oh no. Not the dreaded plateau! Speaking off. Where are you going next?
Buckeye
February 16th, 2012
7:02 am
Fouth and One. Just sayin’
Even Jim Tressel play- actioned on a Fourth and One vs. Purdue (to former Bird and #1 pick Michael Jenkins) to score a go ahead touchdown in the waning seconds en route to their 2002 National Championship.
Arthur's Skank
February 16th, 2012
7:56 am
Matty Ice has turned into Matty Slush. His arm is like an egg noodle hanging from his body. Throw the big money at Peyton Manning and watch how it is done.
Buckeye
February 16th, 2012
8:22 am
ShaKwanzaa,
Nice try you closet 1%er.
T. Greer
February 16th, 2012
9:20 am
You are truly an idiot!!
B-man
February 16th, 2012
9:38 am
This is rediculous…everyone wanting Dimitroff and Smith fired needs to do some research. Look at the Steelers under Bill Cowher (who almost any team in the NFL would like to hire), it took him several years of playoff losses and just being in the hunt to finally get over the top. The reality is there is only 1 team out of 32 every year that is truly happy. But that doesn’t mean that you fire the two men directly responsible for bringing complete respect to a team that was the laughing stock of the league for 30 years. I say just keep getting to the playoffs, eventually the stars will align and a special season will happen (or even multiple seasons). Do the birds need to get better? Yes, and I believe they will. As for Matt Ryan, we can stop the elite quarterback talk. He does not have the skills to be a Manning, Brady, Rodgers or Brees. But is he good enough to win a super bowl? We will see.
what of it?
February 16th, 2012
9:41 am
ATTENTION PLEASE!
this is a wind-up. this is only a wind-up.
Stop the Madness
February 16th, 2012
9:43 am
Dimitroff – NO, was inexperienced and still being mentored by McKay
Smitty – NO, too conservative
Ryan – Over rated right now. Maybe if someone gave him a dose of Big Balls he might have the courage to play big boy football
I’m not impressed with any of these clowns. Arthur still keeping McKay around says all I need to know. The Falcons will have winning seasons now. Yall happy now?
Rtruth
February 16th, 2012
9:49 am
As long as Ryan and Smitty are here we will never go to a SB much less win one.
That guy with the high hair has to go too.
mark
February 16th, 2012
10:02 am
Choke I see you ignored my post, facts are a hard thing to deal with according to your logic after Peyton’s first 4 seasons you would be saying the same things about him? Go back to your mothers basement you pussy.
vafalconfan
February 16th, 2012
10:11 am
It’s the belief here that Mularkey, who left to become Jacksonville’s head coach, drummed the daring out of Ryan, and a championship quarterback cannot be timid.
Mark- this is the quote of the year, well said!
Devil's Advocate
February 16th, 2012
10:16 am
The only piece of information that really matters here concerning wins is the 3-12 record when Ryan throws more than 40 times. The Falcons recent success was largely due to Michael Turner pounding the rock behind a nasty (opponents called them dirty, I say they were doing their job well) OL. Why did Ryan have such a promising rookie season? Because he was not asked to sling the ball all over the yard like Brees, Brady, the Mannings, or Rodgers. He had a dominant running game which afforded him an adequate number of opportunities down field to the best receiving TE in history and an emerging Roddy White.
I’m tired of people making excuses for the passing game by blaming the OL’s pass blocking. Every NFL QB is under pressure every game. The great QBs know how to protect the ball and negate the pass rush by throwing to the void left in the defense. Without that dominant running game the tougher opponents are taking away the passing game. The Falcons need to restore their running game to get defenses to pull off the receivers and make things more comfortable for Ryan. We don’t need Ryan to be a gunslinger racking up crazy numbers against the scrub teams while looking ineffective against playoff caliber teams. This is where the OL needs an upgrade or attitude adjustment. We need to get back to knocking people off the ball and allowing our RBs to run. We also need a new RB for 2013 IMO because Turner probably has one great season left.
SavDawg
February 16th, 2012
10:16 am
When TD & Smitty first came to ATL the first thing I heard was we’re going to build from the inside out!!! I wonder where that phols. went? We lose argueably our best OLman last year to FA. but mortaged our future w/ a skill position. MR nor any QB cannot function W/O time.
Some on this blog have said a top QB can function even w/ weak OL. Would someone tell me who and how ??
zbulldawg
February 16th, 2012
10:20 am
Matty NEEDS TO GET HIS BUTT IN THE WEIGHT ROOM !! HE HAS THE FRAME TO BE STRONGER !! This practice of leaning so hard on just the starters DON’T Work any more ! The only none starters makig big plays is Greg Williams running down somebody who is making a big PLAY ! Harry needs to be used more !!! Roddy quit powding when Matty goes to someone else ! Tony great as he is ! Is always double or trippled ! By the end of the season Turner is wore out ! The OL SUX !! The DEFENSE is vanilla Any decent college team could move the ball on them ! The special teams is below average ! This team just needs to GROW UP !! NO MORE” IT’S OKAY ” NO THE HELL IT’S NOT OKAY !! EITHER PLAY or GO AWAY !! This all starts with the head coach GET TOUGH SMITH !!!!! NO decent team fears the FALCONS !!
Devil's Advocate
February 16th, 2012
10:27 am
SavDawg,
The Saints, the Giants, the Patriots (stop living in the past pretending that they have the great OL from 7 years ago), the Giants, the Bengals, and the Lions all have decent OLs. It’s a chicken and egg thing. Is the OL considered great because the QB is so effective getting rid of the ball and calling audibles at the line or is the QB able to throw for so many yards because the OL won’t let anyone in the backfield? All I know is if you objectively watch multiple NFL games they all look the same. NFL DLs apply pressure, some better than others but they are all bringing it. The “great” QBs all get hit just the same as the not-so-great ones but the biggest difference is they get rid of the ball in a productive manner. Brees and Rodgers always seem to have a defender on them more than Ryan IMO.
SavDawg
February 16th, 2012
10:31 am
Hey KingDaddy are u from Savannah?
SavDawg
February 16th, 2012
10:39 am
DA idon’t know seems to me Ryan is constantly under pressure. I wonder if their any any stats on how long each QB in leauge has to execute play (average).Also our run game seems to have gone downhill since harvey dahl left.