ESPN’s Law ranks the Braves’ farm system pretty darn low
Keith Law wasn't so high on Mike Minor (middle), either. (AJC photo by Hyosub Shin)
Because the Braves take pride in their farm system, Keith Law’s latest appraisal isn’t apt to get the save-print-and-frame treatment at 755 Hank Aaron Drive. Writing for ESPN Insiders, Law ranks the Braves’ minor-leaguers as baseball’s 16th-best.
Law’s take on the Braves (link requires registration):
They have reaped as little from the draft the past two years as anyone, taking low-ceiling college guys with early picks, staying at or under MLB’s bonus recommendations and having less luck on the international market. It’s telling that the major question on every position-player prospect in their top 10 is whether he’ll hit.
This represents a sharp falloff. Law had the Braves third in his organizational rankings last winter. In 2010, he placed them fifth. (That was the year he tabbed Jason Heyward as the No. 1 overall prospect.) That said …
Over the past two seasons, the Braves have produced one National League rookie of the year (Craig Kimbrel in 2011) and two runners-up (Heyward in 2010, Freddie Freeman last season). It would be difficult for any team — alliteration alert! — to sustain such a spree of sudden splashes.
Still, you’d think that the Braves’ glut of young pitching — Baseball America lists five pitchers among the organization’s top eight prospects — would leave the Braves higher than 16th, which is mathematically in the lower half of all MLB clubs. But Law’s point about hitting, or the lack thereof, is telling. Of the non-pitchers among Baseball America’s Braves top 10, none are outfielders. (Four infielders, one catcher.)
Oh, and one thing more: Law has been hammering on the Braves’ drafts for a while now. He hated it when they took Mike Minor with the No. 7 overall pick in 2009, and apparently he wasn’t enthused about the subsequent drafts, either. All of which makes me wonder what he’d have made of the Hawks under Billy Knight.
By Mark Bradley
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
212 comments Add your comment
banned_schemula
February 10th, 2012
2:03 am
We grow pitchers ok, and that keeps the team semi-interesting. But we sign Raul Mondesi, Rick Ankiel, Garret Anderson, Troy Glaus, etc to play significant games, and it just hasn’t worked out. When We do throw down on a bat, he’s a career .265 hitter who is a tree stump in the field defensively, oh, and he was ALREADY 31 when we got him, so, little upside and more than likely creeping decline.
Bourne was a nice pickup, and it will be great to have him for a whole season before he moves on. During the collapse, it seemed like he was the only one with the determined hustle step. I hope we can get him for a 3 year deal after this year. He’s 29 this year.
The Padres got Yonder Alonzo for Mat Latos. Sure, he’s a total clod in LF, but… he’s 25 and a masher. I just don’t see the Braves even trying to make moves like that.
I’m just so mad about this Uggla thing. $60m for a one dimensional 31 year old when we had an all-star 2b in Prado who is a trooper for playing LF, but, he’s just not a LF in the field or at the plate.
all for one.....
February 10th, 2012
2:09 am
l agree with Mr. Law. l am a draftnik. The Braves drafts have been miserably bad. We are not getting enough positive results. We need some true offensive punch infused soon. If Heyward fails and Freeman regresses, ouch. We would be pathetic. Draft someone who can hit. Dont even draft a pitcher next year. Let the system absorb the pitchers we have now. We are Weaklings with the stick. Show me offense. Heck show me defense. Our pitching better be as great as advertised or l am jumping off as a Braves fan. Win now. Just win daggum it.
all for one.....
February 10th, 2012
2:19 am
Can anyone say Pape Sy. OMG. Sickening. Braves, Hawks and Falcons need to vastly improve their player personnel and drafting. Just win baby.
Kevin Chop
February 10th, 2012
2:30 am
Banned, your def right about Bourne. He goes hard every game and I wish we had more players just like him.
Reason
February 10th, 2012
5:36 am
The only thing that is law is that day in April, when you hear these famous words “Play Ball!.” flush everything else said, down the toilet.
DetroitBraves
February 10th, 2012
7:09 am
I hope I’m right but I don’t think it’s that the Braves don’t realize they’ve been taking safe, fairly uninspiring picks in the draft. They just don’t want to spend. They don’t spend in free agency (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing) and they don’t spend for top talent in the draft (which is a bad thing). So I don’t know where they go from here. Maybe the answer is new ownership.
Big Al
February 10th, 2012
7:33 am
I hope you did not strain yourself with that long and in depth article.
Savannah Bombers
February 10th, 2012
9:00 am
The game HAS NOT changed that much. You need great pitching and great hitting and great defense but my opinion is the team that can still be effective while playing hurt is the team that wins. We do not know what goes on behind closed doors or in those dugouts but even if a player is getting paid a lot of money, they still have to battle their attitudes and emotions. A team or player with weak minds on winning are the ones that finish out of First Place. The Braves had injuries last Fall but the people in Management allowed a complacency to creep into the dugout. It was also the fault of the veterans on the team, not just the Coaches. The Braves have plenty of Skill. It’s Leadership and Motivation that needs to be addressed.
SawThat1nce
February 10th, 2012
9:10 am
Things will be a lot better for the Braves this season.
Mr. Thomas Anthony Jones, SR
February 10th, 2012
9:26 am
The Braves are overrated by everyone. Last year is an example of how sorry the Braves really are. They are a total disaster
Ted
February 10th, 2012
10:09 am
Please. Keith Law is a moron. The only reason he is “recognized” is because he writes for ESPN – not because he’s some special evaluator for talent.
As the adage goes – those than can do; those that cannot teach (or write). Keith Law writes because he failed to do while spending 4.5 years with a mediocre organization.
I mean, if you need further proof, go look at his past lists and compare them to lists generated by people who have a clue (e.g. Baseball America). His “work” speaks for itself.
For example, in 2008, here are the players in Law’s Top 50 that were nowhere on BA’s Top 100 (Michael Main, No. 46 and German Duran, No. 48) or were at least 40 spots lower (Desmond Jennings, No. 11 vs. 59, Carlos Truinfel, No. 18 vs. 62, Taylor Teagarden, No. 40 vs. 80 and Nolan Reimold, No. 39 vs. 91). If that isn’t a who’s who of garbage, I don’t know what to say.
Conversely, here are the players in BA’s top 50 that were not on Law’s list (Gio Gonzalez, No. 26, Brett Anderson, No. 36 and Jair Jurrjens, No. 49). Now tell me who knows “elite” talent better. In fact, just go through both lists’ Top 50 and look at the pool of players Law ranks at least 10 spots higher (guys like Fernando Martinez, Angel Villalona, Jose Tabata, Lars Anderson, Josh Vitters, Daric Barton, Carlos Gomez, etc.) and compare to the pool he ranks at least 10 spots lower (guys like Joey Votto, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gonzalez, etc.).
Now this isn’t to say Law got nothing right – but even the blind squirrel can find the occasional nut. However, as a whole, it is clear that BA knows a heck of a lot more than Keith Law when it comes to scouting and the only reason the latter is held out as some “expert” is because he writes for ESPN. Eric Karabell is ESPN’s fantasy “expert” yet has never won any kind of league to justify that title. Heck, Jim Bowden is also a writer for ESPN – and all he proved is that he was great at running a scheme for kick-backs of international bonus money. And Steve Phillips worked for ESPN. And . . . need I go on?
So take Keith Law’s rankings with a MASSIVE grain of salt. He’s a know nothing person who is just throwing crap against a wall. I could go create a Top 100 list and it would end up being a heck of a lot more accurate than Law’s – because mine would be culled from opinions from various credible sources who actually know what they are talking about.
Ken Stallings
February 10th, 2012
10:43 am
Ted, masterful analysis!
It has reached a point where ESPN owns so much of the sports media world that if they say something then it must be right. There is another entertainment titan who operates a bit that same way — Disney.
Hmmm….
Floyd
February 10th, 2012
10:46 am
I don’t believe Law’s assessment speaks to the Braves’ strategy of drafting pitching, first and foremost, which can later be traded for position players at the major league level. Nothing is more valuable than pitching. Nothing.
That being said, I’m going out on a bit of a limb here because I’m ASSUMING that’s Atlanta’s strategy. Because, thus far, the Braves have not opted to trade any pitching to fill some obvious holes in the lineup. But you have to think that day is soon coming….there are only five spots in the rotation, after all, and even the departure of Derek Lowe leaves Jurrjens, Hanson, Beachy, Hudson, Delgado, Teheran, Vizcaino and Minor – all of whom appear ready to enter the major league rotation. Presumably, there are a couple of guys at the Triple-A level who have some trade value, as well.
Given the fact most major league teams struggle to put more than three solid starters in the rotation, the Braves look like gluttons when it comes to starters. Time to ship somebody for a solid bat and challenge a Phillies team that’s starting to show its age.
steve
February 10th, 2012
10:59 am
It all starts with good pitching, no reason why they cannot find a good hitter or two to trade for as all teams need decent starting pitching.
coach joe
February 10th, 2012
11:10 am
As per USAA today, the Braves are stuck with a bad 25 year media/TV deal which is going to inhibit the revenue stream for YEARS.. We are going to fall further behind the Base ball haves and our picks will get worse in the future. NO money no good picks to commit to sign..
Arthur
February 10th, 2012
11:21 am
When Mr. Turner owned the Brave we got Maddox. Who wanted Maddox? Everyone. When Mr. Turner was the owner we got McGriff. Who wanted McGriff ? Everyone. The Braves will have so so teams until we get a new owner such as Mr. Blank, Mr. Turner, Mr Marcus who has the money and the nerve to go after top talent. Until them we will be stuck in 2nd or 3rd place in the N> East.
Hope I am wrong, but do not think so.
Robert
February 10th, 2012
11:29 am
“But pitching was the hallmark for all of those 90s — early 2000s teams and yet we still only won one WS”
Winning a WS with a team that hits .250 is one thing. Winning a WS with a team managed by Bobby Cox is far more difficult. I think a team that hits. .050 has a better chance of winning the WS than a team managed by Bobby Cox
Fols
February 10th, 2012
11:51 am
Braves management put a very good team together last season. You can cry about the lack of spending all you want and ask for McGriff back but this is not on managment.
Prado, Uggla’s two month start, BMAC & Chip both not showing much power, Heyward collapse, Gonzo holding a bat……..these are guys that they put in there to win and they didn’t come through. These are guys that had good to great seasons the year before and there was little reason to believe they’d do so poorly for an entire years worth of stats.
Quit blaming the pen and paper…..players have a bat in their hand, they are professionals, they can start hitting the ball on a more consistant basis.
Ownership has the pieces to do the same this year without the Lowe and Gonzo goats. It’s up the players now, hit the dam ball.
vesaversa
February 10th, 2012
11:53 am
I disagree with law on the Braves pitching they hold some of the best young prospects in MLB . But i am concern that the Braves doesn’t seam to draft hitter’s as they should .
Fols
February 10th, 2012
12:05 pm
I don’t want anyone stealing my idea but this is simply ‘Moneyball’ material!
Teams should focus on ONE of the THREE. Learn to draft either pitching, outfield or infield. Do it well, raise them, teach them, baby those prospects. Make other teams want them because you have a surplus.
Braves do well at pitching. The suplus gives you trade material for one of the other two. Focus on that…..infield. Braves stink at the outfield……boom, that’s your full on position of free agency.
One you draft
One you trade
One you buy
Coach (2012 Fredi's beisbol fandango)
February 10th, 2012
12:15 pm
I wouldn’t worry or lose sleep over what Keith Law thinks about the Braves farm system. I like it just fine as we are stock full of pitching prospects.
Jay Dubu
February 10th, 2012
12:26 pm
I kinda agree with Law on Minor. Beachy, who came out of no where beat him out for the 5th spot last year, and appears to be a better overall pitcher.
The advantage that Minor has is that he’s a lefty, and the Braves are looking for a lefty starter.
B-Fan
February 10th, 2012
12:31 pm
I’ll take the Braves’ young pitching over what Keith Law has to say.
ExBraves Fan
February 10th, 2012
12:57 pm
Its simple. Very simple. Get used too it. This ain’t your big spend, big dollars, Ted Turner Braves any more. They are now the Oakland A’s, penny pinchers of the NL. Heck, even the sorry Pirates are out there TRYING to do something to improve their team. The Braves??? They are HOPING, HOPING mind you, that their players who bombed last year, can come back to some what decent seasons this year. Their entire season is based on HOPE!!! Sounds like some other guy who’s hope hasn’t exactly worke out like he thought it would. What the heck, maybe he will give the Braves federal disaster relief money for the disaster of a front office they have.
Jay Dubu
February 10th, 2012
1:05 pm
@coach joe
The Braves were way ahead of the curve with the revenue stream opportunity when they were on TBS. Other teams realized that you have to have your own outlet, or an exclusive deal to get your games to it’s fans, and the amount of income that can generate.
The Yanks, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Angels, etc are poised to make hundreds of millions, while the Braves are stuck in a 25 year deal that pays them chump change (in terms of baseball broadcast revenue).
The Braves became America’s Team by being carried on TBS. They have all of the Southeast (7+ states) as their fan base, and you have to flip through multiple channels to find their games.
Someone, maybe multiple people, in the Braves front Office should have been replaced for the TV deal that is now in place.
Bobo is Not the Problem
February 10th, 2012
1:24 pm
The Braves seem to specialize in one-season wonders, with Francoeur and Heyward at the top of that list. We’ll see about Freeman and Kimbrell. However, they have not turned out a proliferation of major-league talent as would be expected from their high minor league rankings in the past. 16th may be about right based on past performance, anyway.
BravesFanSince80's
February 10th, 2012
1:24 pm
Oh my God! we passed on Mike Trout to take Mike Minor?????????????????????Strike 1001 Frank Wren, you incompetent hack!
Bobo is Not the Problem
February 10th, 2012
1:26 pm
Fols, if it’s all up to the players, why do you think some teams like the Cards seemed to overachieve last year? Just blind luck? Should we not even try to evaluate GM’s because it’s all “up to the players”?
BravesFanSince80's
February 10th, 2012
1:47 pm
there’s an Australian baseball game on MLB network right now, talk about weird, they show pitch speed in kilometers/hour. the pitcher just threw one 146 km/hr:)
Jefferson
February 10th, 2012
3:06 pm
We should stipulate: Pitching is the most important commodity in baseball. You can win a World Series with a team that hits .250 in a season. The Braves know. They did it in 1995.
That team also had HR hitters like McGriff, Justice, Jones, etc. This team is a lil lack in pop. Hopefully some players rebound and the end result is better this year
Mister Frisky
February 10th, 2012
3:16 pm
I’m not surprised.Everyday line up average at best.Why should the farm be any different.I almost forgot.4th place.
Braves Fan Since 1966
February 10th, 2012
3:28 pm
It’s still hard to believe that the Braves are still owned by Liberty Forgot-their-last-name. They just keep on acting like very poor and uninvolved MLB franchise owners and Braves management just keeps on defending them (as if they really have a choice). Not suggesting that we need to spend foolishly but am beginning to see more and more articles about who we may be able to keep and who we might need to eject over pay. To me, baseball teams should be owned by people who can afford to lose money each year in return for the increase in franchise value. These rich guys should be committed to the City and to winning. Will use Falcons ownership as an example despite the troubles that the Falcons have in the playoffs.
danny
February 10th, 2012
4:01 pm
Keith Law…hmmm, i remember him being a GM of which team? Oh that’s right he never was. He worked in the front office for the blue jays…says alot that he’s now a writer for ESPN.
Let’s not forget Peter King placed the Chargers and the Falcons in the Super Bowl. SD missed the playoffs and falcons may as well missed them too.
His comments are akin to weather channel reports.
Heyward Still A ZERO, an Unknown
February 10th, 2012
4:01 pm
If Heyward has another year like he did last year, he needs to be flushed down the toilet……he went from Hero to ZERO in ninety to nothing flat……what a sissy waste!
BartBuzz
February 10th, 2012
4:32 pm
Mark…you never said where you would rank the Braves farm system.
bvillebaron
February 10th, 2012
4:55 pm
Bobo:
Uh, I trust you are aware that Heyward finished second in the NL rookie of the year balloting in 2010 and Kimbrel and Freeman finished 1 and 2.
KK
February 10th, 2012
5:14 pm
Tim Hudson’s probably our most consistant hitter
BBILLEBARON
February 10th, 2012
5:40 pm
Heyward is a one season wonder and a BIG ZERO right now…….with Gimper Jones in the lineup we ought to be able to fill out disability pay for this sorry team!
Sunny Clusterfork
February 10th, 2012
5:40 pm
We was thinking it was epic – EPIC – the way me and Stinky Wintes and them deer hunters was fanny patting and hugging at the Dairy Queen last season. EPIC.
wins-by-a-link
February 10th, 2012
5:43 pm
Its simple, Liberty Media has the Braves organization on a bread and water diet, No meat, Look for a slip in standings for the Braves as other teams in NL East continue to improve thier rosters while FW has to make do with a bare bones budget, The Braves will never win another championship as long as Liberty owns the Braves.
Disgusted
February 10th, 2012
6:38 pm
Its not untinkable that the Braves will be in the bottom third of payroll by mid decade.
That TV deal stinks and ATL is not the kind of town that is going to sell out to support garbage.
I could see the gate dropping down to 1.8 or 1.9 million if things do not go right and that will make it worse.
I don’t worry about Law’s ratings, but where are the up and comming prospects for the lineup??? They are not ready yet, and we do not know if they are good enough yet.
I am not so sure on Minor or Vizcaino, there are things about them that need improvement. These young pitchers will go througgh a learning curve and that can be painful.
JJ, Hudson and Hanson better be healthy and right or else….
BRAVESFAN
February 10th, 2012
6:39 pm
Keith Law sounds like he knows what he’s talking about…until he talks about the players you know.
Non-yellow Journalist
February 10th, 2012
7:36 pm
It’s been well known through the years that ESPN analysts do not like the Braves organization, and it’s wide spread accross their network. They barely even cover them period. ESPN is turning into a bunch of thugs.
Non-yellow Journalist
February 10th, 2012
7:39 pm
It does seem since Leo Mazzone left that Braves pitchers have spent double time on the disabled list. I do not think this is by mistake. Roger and Perez need to rotate the bullpen activity a little better to keep the arms fresh.
Klaus
February 10th, 2012
8:33 pm
Cecil34 great post. GovClinton – Law is right more than blog participants. The Braves farm system is fairly one dimensional and that dimension is all about pitching.
Couple that with a disinterested corporation and spotty offense and you have a team that is good at hanging around but will win very little come Oct.
Klaus
February 10th, 2012
8:51 pm
All fans fall in love with their prospects even against their own better judgement. ATL is no different.
Minor is good not great so far. He cannot pitch past the 5-6th inning and has not sniffed 200+ innings.
In fact name one Braves home grown starter (braves drafted pitcher not a trade guy) that has regularly pitched 200+ innings each year with a winning record.
You have to go back to Glavine or maybe Smotlz during his prime as a starter. No one after these two (Smoltz was picked up in a trade with Detroit btw) has done the above. If you look at the teams that win WS of late that have at least one if not two starters that pitch 200+ innings with a winning record (not talking about 4-5th starter fodder but 1-2, 2A guys).
So while we crow about Braves “pitching” it really is trading on the name built in the 90s b/c 2000s era Braves home grown & drafted pitching talent has proven very little in the durability or win department.
Hudson has been their best over all pitcher games 1 to 162 for the past 5+ years not guys they are drafting.
Until any of the Minor or Teheran’s pan out they are just prospects from a machine that has failed to produce a Glavine, Smoltz or Avery in over a decade.
Having said that and looking at their track record in drafting and producing elite pitchers who are durable (why Hanson or JJ are not being mentioned here) they would be wise to trade a few before the book is out on them.
The problem is they cannot afford to take back any salary for an established bat. So they want to trade the JJs of the world for top 1-5 prospects and more than one.
That will be next to impossible.
mark
February 10th, 2012
9:29 pm
Cant really take this seriously…gotta be a joke.
Ken Stallings
February 10th, 2012
10:16 pm
If I were the Braves, I would do two things and see if either could get them out of that horrible network TV deal.
First, I would go to the league office and speak about how the deal was essentially an inside job the provided discount to the network who had an ownership relationship to the team. I would claim that after this deal was signed, the team was sold as a tax investment shelter. I would ask the league to pressure Fox Sports to re-negotiate the contract.
Second, if that failed, I would take the same line of thinking to court and sue Fox Sports.
When someone deliberately undervalues a commodity or service for their personal advantage there can be court relief for those who are bilked of the value. Time Warner essentially negotiated their own deal as they owned the team and the media outlets. What they did is transfer value from the team to the networks and then when they sold the team in a money-less exchange, Liberty agreed to look past the 25-year deal.
The league took action to protect the health of the Dodgers simply because their owner diverted value from the team’s operating budget in order to withstand financial problems he faced elsewhere. That is chump change compared to the kind of long term financial damage the Braves are suffering.
@fauxfrankwren
February 11th, 2012
7:17 am
Grow your pitching and buy your hitting.
And how come Law doesn’t give us credit for trying the Moneyball way? Law’s statement sure sounds Moneyballish. I guess you gotta be Billy Beane.
“They have reaped as little from the draft the past two years as anyone, taking low-ceiling college guys with early picks, staying at or under MLB’s bonus recommendations and having less luck on the international market. It’s telling that the major question on every position-player prospect in their top 10 is whether he’ll hit.”
Disgusted
February 11th, 2012
8:32 am
If I were the Braves, I would do two things and see if either could get them out of that horrible network TV deal.
@Ken Stallings–from what has been written, according to Mc Guirk, there is no way out of that deal.
It seemed suspicious but they do not seem to want to do anything about it.
I am not sure if Mc Guirk who I think was around in the Time Warner days had anything to do with it.
Even if they were up for sale, the Braves are probably not a good buy for another owner. So we are screwedd for 20 more yrs.