ESPN’s Law ranks the Braves’ farm system pretty darn low
Keith Law wasn't so high on Mike Minor (middle), either. (AJC photo by Hyosub Shin)
Because the Braves take pride in their farm system, Keith Law’s latest appraisal isn’t apt to get the save-print-and-frame treatment at 755 Hank Aaron Drive. Writing for ESPN Insiders, Law ranks the Braves’ minor-leaguers as baseball’s 16th-best.
Law’s take on the Braves (link requires registration):
They have reaped as little from the draft the past two years as anyone, taking low-ceiling college guys with early picks, staying at or under MLB’s bonus recommendations and having less luck on the international market. It’s telling that the major question on every position-player prospect in their top 10 is whether he’ll hit.
This represents a sharp falloff. Law had the Braves third in his organizational rankings last winter. In 2010, he placed them fifth. (That was the year he tabbed Jason Heyward as the No. 1 overall prospect.) That said …
Over the past two seasons, the Braves have produced one National League rookie of the year (Craig Kimbrel in 2011) and two runners-up (Heyward in 2010, Freddie Freeman last season). It would be difficult for any team — alliteration alert! — to sustain such a spree of sudden splashes.
Still, you’d think that the Braves’ glut of young pitching — Baseball America lists five pitchers among the organization’s top eight prospects — would leave the Braves higher than 16th, which is mathematically in the lower half of all MLB clubs. But Law’s point about hitting, or the lack thereof, is telling. Of the non-pitchers among Baseball America’s Braves top 10, none are outfielders. (Four infielders, one catcher.)
Oh, and one thing more: Law has been hammering on the Braves’ drafts for a while now. He hated it when they took Mike Minor with the No. 7 overall pick in 2009, and apparently he wasn’t enthused about the subsequent drafts, either. All of which makes me wonder what he’d have made of the Hawks under Billy Knight.
By Mark Bradley
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212 comments Add your comment
bvillebaron
February 9th, 2012
1:46 pm
Stinger2:
Other than a right handed everyday LF and the uncertainty about Pastornicky, what are the Braves’ weak spots? I don’t happen to think that either Prado or Heyward is a “weak spot”. .
Bucky
February 9th, 2012
1:53 pm
Sonny Clusters for President! Dairy Queen can be your Headquarters!
Sonny Clusters
February 9th, 2012
1:56 pm
We was never one to be in politics because we are too honest and always say what we think. If we was looking at weak spots we’d wonder about the left side of the infield and up the middle because we don’t know what we’ve got at ss and we know all too well what we don’t have at 3B.
Sonny Clusters
February 9th, 2012
1:58 pm
When losing a ball in the lights and losing a game that would have put you in the playoffs, it is always smart to let the ball be one that is hit high, high, in the air and not one that is bouncing off the ground. That’s our opinion and we stick to it.
Gorilla Biscuit
February 9th, 2012
2:04 pm
No doubt we need a couple of gorillas at 3rd base and in left field. Mayhaps we could get a couple of them Bugs Bunny type ball crushers with a three day beard and a cigar hanging out of the side of their mouth.
Gorilla Biscuit
February 9th, 2012
2:05 pm
As long as Bugs ain’t pitchin’ against us.
Skeezix
February 9th, 2012
2:05 pm
The Braves farm system has produced a lot of talent over the last several years so I don’t know how it could be rated poor. I have zero information about what other teams’ farm systems are doing–it is enough just to try and keep up with the Braves prospects. Re: Law’s opinion on this, and maybe he is very good at rating farm systems, I would just say I really don’t care what he thinks. It seems to me that the Braves are doing a very solid job developing talent.
extremus
February 9th, 2012
3:03 pm
Cheer up, everyone; by my calculations the Braves (or some Atlanta pro team) should be due for another championship around, oh, the year 2025 or so. Wow, has it already been THAT long since 1995?
Rick James
February 9th, 2012
3:36 pm
Those that can do.Those that cant become critics,writers and analists..
Skeezix
February 9th, 2012
3:56 pm
The most exciting college basketball of the season was played last night, one of the best UNC/Duke games ever and the ajc web site has zero coverage of it.
Stinger2
February 9th, 2012
4:10 pm
bville baron: Heyward was a very week spot in 2011. He completely lost his swing and all his stats were way down from his rookie season. Prado also had a off year. My post
said that thes are “ifs” along with Pastornicky. The
meaning is that the Braves will be competitive if these players regain their 2010 form and if Pastornicky can be
a serviceable ML SS as a rookie. Other “ifs” are JJ and Hanson coming back from injuries that made them ineffective as starters in the second half of last year.
Chipper's ACL
February 9th, 2012
4:12 pm
Here’s some stats folks. Looking back at the drafts from 2006 to 2009 the Braves have produced 5 major league players out of their top 10 picks in each draft.
2006-1 Medlen in Rd 10
2007-2 Heyward and Freeman
2008-1 Kimbrel
2009-1 Minor
Thadsdad
February 9th, 2012
4:17 pm
It seems that season of a few years ago when the Braves, due to a rash of injuries, ended up pitching the equivalent of Moe,, Larry and Curly at the end of the season (Wren’s 1st as GM, if I recall) traumatized him and the organization. Since, the Braves have taken pitcher after pitcher in the draft, held on to pitcher after pitcher and have refused to include very few in any deals.
And it’s not like this team is a lock to do anything other than finish beneath the Phumblins and hope for a wild card berth.
Everybody has their locks, their no-doubts heading into a season. You know Pujols, Howard, Fielder, etc. are going to put up numbers. You know Halladay, Verlander, etc. are going to put up numbers.
The Braves?
Will Chipper play 120 games or 20? Will Pastornicky be in Triple-A in May? Will Uggla hit 30 homers and bat .210? Will Freeman catch Heyward Disease? Will Prado be the All-Star of 2010 or the black hole in the lineup of 2011? Will Bourn get on base, steal bases and then get stranded as he did for a couple of months last year? Will Heyward suffer from Heyward Disease? Will McCann tear up the NL for three months and then the DL for three more? As for pitching, who’s the stopper? Are Hudson, Jurrrjens and Hanson automatic when the game/season is on the line?
In fact, the only place the Braves are truly set is backup catcher.
Far too many questions to be sitting on so many prospects without making a move.
The Braves can talk about how they were the fourth best team in baseball in August of last year. But your record is your record, whether you win 75 games in a row at the start of the year or lose 75 in a row at the end.
Realistcially, this team could win 65 or 95 games. But I’m not exactly filled with optimism.
bro
February 9th, 2012
4:27 pm
I’d rate them low too. No bats in the minors and the only pitcher they can trade the Braves have to pay the other team to take him.
6-4-3 DP
February 9th, 2012
4:35 pm
The Braves have plenty of young pitchers that they would like to trade for a good bat…but who do you trade. It’s too big a gamble just to go out and make a trade. I like what Frank Wrenn is doing…wait a year or maybe half a season until you know for sure who is going to be a keeper and who you can trade. What the Braves have now..they are capable of holding their own until the time is right.
kingdaddy
February 9th, 2012
4:37 pm
According to some, we’ve already lost the season and don’t need to bother showing up. Philly had injuries so did St. Louie. How about lets play and see how everything shakes out before we give-up. We should be right in the thick of it. Other teams hate the Bravos because of our success. Don’t worry about what everyone else thinks. They don’t want us to win anyway.
Tybee Island
February 9th, 2012
4:52 pm
I don’t agree but I do feel we have slipped some.
for info on tybee island vacation rentals visit: http://www.sandysbytheshore.com
kirkinga
February 9th, 2012
4:56 pm
These rankings are hardly relevant given that we are in the offseason. Season after season the teams with money continue to find a package of prospects to go make a big trade or two. No matter where their farm system might rank in a given offseason, teams such as the Yankees, BoSox, ChiSox always seem to come up with attractive prospects. That tells me that there is more than just a bit of public relations and politics behind these rankings.
Like the Falcons, the Braves organization needs to update it’s offensive philosophy. Maybe “pop” isn’t the only offensive skill set we need? The Braves might want to find some better athletes to man positions and coach them up as they do so well with pitching prospects. I think the playoffs demonstrated that there is great use for “explosive” playmakers in baseball as in most other sports.
Law-yer
February 9th, 2012
4:58 pm
Law……………A washed up writer who lies as much as a 2-bit lawyer!
AGTFan
February 9th, 2012
4:59 pm
By my count Law has built exactly 0 winning teams in baseball. I’m not concerned. His baseball IQ isn’t much higher than most of the football fans that post on this blog.
Law-He-Haw
February 9th, 2012
5:14 pm
Law doesn’t like Minor………..Well Then I accuse Law of a Wasted Life cause he doesn’t know his azz from a hole in the ground!
Law's Brain is Slaw!
February 9th, 2012
5:18 pm
ESPN should drug test it’s writers because some of their writer’s Brain’s are Definitely Fried!
The Law
February 9th, 2012
5:21 pm
I don’t put much stock in Law’s REPORT due to the fact that he is a disgruntled MET’S FAN!
2012 Preseason Fulmer Cup Champs
February 9th, 2012
5:21 pm
“Law ranks the Braves’ farm system pretty darn low”
Well considering the Braves are a team of postseason collapse….
Hey ATL, how many titles do the Braves have?
ONE
2012 Preseason Fulmer Cup Champs
February 9th, 2012
5:22 pm
“ESPN should drug test it’s writers because some of their writer’s Brain’s are Definitely Fried!”
Can’t remember the last time a Braves farm player led them to a WS title.
2012 Preseason Fulmer Cup Champs
February 9th, 2012
5:22 pm
Bring back John Rocker.
Train Wreck Bystander
February 9th, 2012
5:27 pm
Having a surplus of good farm pitching is not a disadvantage.
Not being able to trade that surplus for good hitting, however, is damning.
cowdogit
February 9th, 2012
5:32 pm
After the braves pathetic performance last September, no one in the braves organization has much value.
ATLcracker
February 9th, 2012
5:33 pm
Where would the Braves rank if you looked at players 21 years old and younger? Majors and Minors.
Stinger2
February 9th, 2012
5:37 pm
I don`t think it matters where Law ranks the Braves farm system. The Braves farm system is the least of their problems. They need to get players from other sources than just the farm system to be competitive in the NL East. Signing free agents and making trades to strengthen the holes are as important as having a strong farm system.
The Braves have not done anything of substance to trade or sigh FA to help the club since the collapse in September.
Sonny Clusters
February 9th, 2012
5:58 pm
How about Constanza? Will he get a chance to play? The team was on fire when he was introduced to the lineup. Of course, somebody told Fredi to play Heyward and we all know how that turned out. Can you imagine such a collapse? In commemoration of last season Chipper should name his next child uh, EPIC.
Sonny Clusters
February 9th, 2012
6:00 pm
How about a little sign out in the outfield that says, EPIC 2011. That would be a reminder.
kingdaddy
February 9th, 2012
6:00 pm
Mr. Law hasn’t had anyone talk aboutl him like this since, well never. Badmouth an orginazation like the Braves and you get notoriety in the ESPN media. What’s so funny is all the losers who are so willing to agree Sao they can act like they know something. The Braves will compete this year and our farm will continue to produce quality players. Throw in a couple of well-placed free-agents and we’ll be competitive. Oh yeah,Tybee is nice, but parking and the police have a lot to be desired. Speed-trap…
kingdaddy
February 9th, 2012
6:14 pm
I love this blog and I’m glad ba$eball is back. Everyone criticising the Braves needs to lighten up. Got anything construtive to say without tearing the team apart. ,go ahead. Maybe the Braves aren’t Mr.Laws cup of tea. Play Ball.
IlliniBrave
February 9th, 2012
6:32 pm
I too respect Kieth Law and enjoy his columns. But the guy is only one person – and this is an inexact science. Using the Braves only, here are some of Law’s failed predictions:
Kimbrel – not in Top 100 Prospect Rankings in 2011 – won Rookie of the Year
Heyward – ranked #1 Prospect in 2010 – did well that yr but tanked this yr
Freddie Freeman – ranked 43 in 2011 – runner-up ROY over many other more highly ranked players
Brandon Beachy – not ranked in 2011 – made starting rotation this yr and arguably the 3rd best pitcher on the staff.
I take what Law and every other “expert” says with a huge grain of salt.
Derek
February 9th, 2012
6:43 pm
I agree with Law’s assessment, though some of our hitters are coming up in AA-ball. Terdoslavich looks like he could be something special, I hope. I’m hoping Simmons will be a better version of Elvis Andrus (very good def, disciplined speed, contact hitter). Fact is, the last couple of years we haven’t had a lot of draft picks. That should change if we lose some free agents (Bourn), possibly McCann in a couple of years.
Wink
February 9th, 2012
6:59 pm
@MB They collapsed because Hanson and Jurrjens got hurt and the bullpen — which had been stellar — finally wobbled.
No they collaped because Gonzalex went away from the Bourne & Constanza running game too early. Once Chipper & Prado were stuck back in the line up and took away the running game. Gonzalez had Constanza batting 9th to get more speed and it was working. If Chipper & Prado had stayed out just another week our bullpen would have been resting those last 2 or three games, since we would have needed only 2 more victories. It still would have been a momumental collapse but we would have made the playoffs.
Same scenario is playing out with the Hawks. Hinrich got hurt during last season during the playoffs. As soon as he got healthy he was immediately inserted back into the lineup. Pargo & Green were adding a lot of punch and tempo off our bench, since his return the we have been mediocre at best.
Nothing against Chipper, Prado or Hinrich, but just because a player is a starter, you should ease them back into the lineup, if your team is currently winning without them. If they fail to produce immediately, immediately you should go back to what was working. Further, if Jurgen could pitch the day we got eliminated in minors, then why could he have not pitch last game of season instead of Lowe…who actually is getting all the scapegoat treatment because of his win loss record, but he gave you over 200+ innings!!1
Further, time proved that Prado was not the player he was last year, same with Chipper, as he only played part time, and Hinrich is getting in shape on the job at the expense of TEAM PRODUCTIVITY! That is why the Braves crashed player reputation & salary got in the way of TEAM PRODUCTIVITY
Bill
February 9th, 2012
7:01 pm
Who cares what ESPN (Eastern Sports Network) thinks…. If your not from the NE they don’t care anyway. I don’t even watch their TV programming anymore they are so bias.
bob
February 9th, 2012
7:09 pm
So who is on the rest of the list? I refuse to purchase their insider service since their free stuff is usually crappy enough, if the mets are ahead of them then the writer is high, but I still feel the braves are in the top 10 at least. They do need to concentrate on other positions other than just pitching though, but then they have always traded their top position players and kept pitching.
banned_schemula
February 9th, 2012
7:17 pm
The main problem the Braves have is the situation with Dan Uggla. They reacted emotionally, and gave Uggla to Fredi as show of good faith. We support you. Thing is… we had an all-star second baseman who is now positionally homeless. With Uggla’s money in the bank, Prado at 2b and Chipper and Infante at 3rd base… we would not be so hamstrung. I like Uggla ok within reason, but… he was just not the right pick-up as the team is constructed. We almost have to trade Prado for someone like Charlie Blackmon, not because it’s a great trade, but because we screwed Prado by sticking Uggla at 2b and he’s just not a LF in the field or at the plate…
phil
February 9th, 2012
8:11 pm
Big Crimson 75
February 9th, 2012
10:30 am
Question I have……. Is Jayson Heyward gonna MAN-UP this year or what?
*******
not likely.
And fire FG!!
Steve
February 9th, 2012
8:21 pm
The Problem with Keith Law is that he is still ranking systems based on the 80’s and 90’s version of baseball. In those decades the majority (not all, but the majority) of the best players went from High School straight into the draft. Even after four years in college most of the college players were equivalent to possibly Low-A players in the minors, where most 2nd year high school guys were already at.
In other words, college ball wasted three years of the development cycle of middle tier players who simply could not afford to not get the most out of every developmental season.
College players are MUCH better than those of past decades. Fewer and fewer players jump straight into the draft from High School. Mike Minor has nearly as good of stuff as Glavine or Avery but just needs polish and he could easily become a #3 starter. Let’s put it this way, at this age his stuff is BETTER than Cliff Lee’s was. If you told me two years ago we are taking a guy with our number one pick that has better stuff than Cliff Lee and probably had a basement of a #5 starter I would have jumped all over it. That is a very good reward plateau versus the small risk involved.
Unfortunately, Law has not changed his thinking. He absolutely HATES any college player drafted. Yes, the Braves might have gone with a high-schooler that would be close to hitting the majors in 4-5 years and only be controllable for a couple of major league seasons .. and yes, the upside might have been higher .. but the risk v reward is much worse .. and we all know the Braves chose to continually cycle through prospects rather than dish out the big bucks to keep them.
For the Braves needs, college players are closer to being ready and usually not as big of a risk to fail. Couple that with the fact the Braves can’t wait too long for talent to develop while years of control dwindle and it’s obvious the Braves MUST change their approach from the 80’s and 90’s when Ted Turner had them in the top 5 in spending continually. I thnk the Braves front office has done a great job drafting Minor and I also think Gilmartin will be a solid starter for years. Maybe not aces, but how I read an article that 26 out of 30 high school players drafted in the first two rounds NEVER make the SHOW. NEVER! That’s a big risk. I realize college players aren’t much better of a percentage, but at least they usually make the SHOW.
Now, all this love for the Braves drafts aside .. we need position players in the minors badly. We don’t have a single OF that is anywhere near Major League ready. In fact, we don’t even have an OF in our system that another system would be interested in. Second base .. nothing. First base .. nothing. Catcher .. good. SS .. good. 3B, JoeT is a one year wonder that we have to wait and see if he can continue. I understand position players are not as valuable, but we avoid them like the plague. We need to sprinkle a few more in. Heyward has been about it since Chipper. I don’t have a list handy, but it’s been almost that bad.
ESPN? They've proven they know NOTHING !
February 9th, 2012
8:44 pm
I don’t know any sports outlet more consistently wrong about most topics then the boys at Bristol.
They’ve become anointed as the leaders in sports, and they did the anointing.
Btw, did I read that Freeman has gotten all muscular in the offseason? Was last year not good enough? Did he not see what happened to Heyward and Francouer when they got bulky? Surely the info is erroneous and surely the Braves would be smart enough to tell him NOT to do that. He needs quickness and agility at first base much more than a right fielder needs it.
Sonny Clusters…..you are dead on about knowing what we DON’T have at third. I have said it before, Chipper is a dead lock Hall of Famer. So was Brooks Robinson, and I don’t want Brooks playing third for us, either. At the very least Chip should restructure his deal to give the team some
purchasing power during the season when people get hurt….like Chipper.
Disgusted
February 9th, 2012
8:59 pm
Until we see some real development of the everyday players in the A level, the rating might be fairer than local fans would like to think.
Farm system ratings change from yr to year and guys like Salcedo might be stud hitters down the road but have a long way to go.
I hope that Freeman does not “bulk up” too much. We say what that did to Heyward and it did not do much for Francoeur, who went through three yrs of mediocrity& took a couple more stops to mature as a player & find his game.
I am not really sold on Minor either, we could have done better with that pick, but he was signable. And that is what we will live with as long as Liberty Media is around.
Steve
February 9th, 2012
10:56 pm
Frank Wren’s tenure needs to be over.
Who Cares
February 9th, 2012
11:21 pm
ESPN doesn’t know anything. They only know how to dead a story to death and make up headlines to increase viewership.
Who Cares
February 9th, 2012
11:22 pm
ESPN doesn’t know anything. They only know how to beat a story to death and make up headlines and “stories” to increase viewership.
Who Me?
February 9th, 2012
11:30 pm
IMO, This team doesn’t have the bench depth or the hitting to carry it when the pitching hits the wall this year, as it inevitably will. We are NOT a balanced club, everyone and their brother knows we’re pitching heavy. Freddi has to quit coaching in Bobby’s shadow and develop his own leadership style instead of trying to replicate Bobby Cox’ decision making and coaching philosophy day in and day out.
Liberty Media is just like the Atlanta Spirit Group in terms of team ownership. The only real team ownership we have in this city anymore is Arthur Blank. Somebody please please find a way to get him to stroke a check to Liberty Media….
kingdaddy
February 10th, 2012
12:16 am
Its the front office that pulls the trigger at the draft. We’ve needed to pay more attention to our position players for a couple of years now. Hitting coaches in the lower divisions are not doing their jobs. Start with better hitting coaches. Better to invest in the orginazation than give up the farm for free-agents with no loyalty. Front Office can’t see the big picture. Hey Chipper,give up some of that love the Braves have shown you as a good-will gesture. Nobody wants to say it cause we do love and respect you but your salary severely cuts their options ,especially if you get hurt again. Love to watch you play, hate it when you sit. You make too much to be hurt. How about a trade to AL for a hand full of good prospects?
Had enough
February 10th, 2012
1:06 am
Where are the future rbi producers.THE POWER HITTERS.