So why haven’t these Falcons gotten closer to a Super Bowl?
"Extra, extra! Read all about it! The team that beat the Falcons wins NFC!" (AP photo)
Three times in four seasons, the Falcons of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan have been eliminated by the eventual NFC champ. This isn’t, however, to suggest they keep being undone by an unlucky draw. In each case, the Falcons entered with the better regular-season record. When it happens once or even twice, we can shrug and say, “Them’s the breaks.” When it happens three times since 2008, we pluck at common threads. And we find …
• In each case, the Falcons held a lead. They’d rallied from a 14-3 deficit to lead 17-14 at the half in Phoenix on Jan. 3, 2009, but the Arizona Cardinals — who’d lost four of their final six regular-season games to finish 9-7 — scored the next 16 points. The game turned on the second play of the second half, when Darnell Dockett thwarted Ryan’s handoff to Michael Turner. Antrell Rolle grabbed the ball and returned it for a touchdown.
Against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome on Jan. 15, 2010, the Falcons led 7-0 after the Packers’ Greg Jennings fumbled on the opening possession and 14-7 after Eric Weems returned a kickoff 102 yards. But Tramon Williams intercepted Ryan twice in the second quarter, and the second, on the half’s final play, was returned for the touchdown that gave Green Bay a 28-14 lead.
Against the Giants in the Meadowlands two weeks back, the Falcons’ lead was more modest. But they missed a chance to make it 9-0 when, after the first-quarter safety, they drove to the Giants’ 42 but chose to punt on fourth-and-1. (As we know, the Falcons couldn’t get a fourth-and-1 right this whole season.)
• In each case, the Falcons were feeble after halftime. They were outscored 16-7 by Arizona, 20-7 by Green Bay, 17-0 by the Giants. (That’s an aggregate of 53-14.) On the only fourth-quarter play of the three games that truly mattered, linebacker Keith Brooking, since jettisoned, bit on Kurt Warner’s play-fake on third-and-16; the conversion enabled Arizona to run out the clock.
• In each case, Ryan was the second-best quarterback on the field. Ryan had six turnovers and was tackled for a safety in his first two playoff starts, and he hasn’t yet thrown for even 200 yards in a postseason game. His playoff passer rating is 71.8, which is awful. But saying Ryan has been the second-best quarterback on the field cuts both ways.
• In each case, the Falcons’ defense had no answer for the opposing quarterback. Granted, the three quarterbacks in question — Warner, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning — are/were outstanding. But the Falcons’ defense has managed a total of three sacks and one interception (by Chevis Jackson on a tipped ball against Arizona) in those three playoff losses, and the aggregate passer rating against Atlanta has been 123.5, which is obscene.
• In each case, Michael Turner was no factor. His rushing numbers in the playoff losses are notably similar — 42 yards against Arizona, 39 against Green Bay, 41 against the Giants. His longest rush in those three games has been 13 yards. He has scored one touchdown.
OK, enough fun with numbers. What conclusions can be drawn?
That Ryan isn’t yet good enough to win playoff games by himself. That Turner is just another guy when the playoffs arrive. That playoff-caliber defenses can push the Falcons’ offensive line backward. That the Falcons’ defense, overhauled after the Arizona loss, still isn’t of winning playoff-caliber. (You must get sacks. You must force turnovers. You must make great quarterbacks play less than great.) That an offense capable of winning 43 regular-season wins over four seasons has been made to look outmoded in January.
And now you’re asking: With all these failings, should the Falcons throw up their hands in surrender? Why, no. Hiring two new coordinators in the same offseason is the closest thing to a fresh start a winning franchise can have. Mike Mularkey’s pitch-and-putt offense didn’t work in the postseason, and Brian VanGorder’s defense made almost nothing happen in those three playoff losses. Now Dirk Koetter and Mike Nolan get to try. It’s possible that they’ll do better. Regarding recent postseason results, it’s not possible to do worse.
But there is, believe it or not, a greater concern than tactics. Only once in the three playoff losses did the Falcons even stir in the second half, and that was against Arizona. In the two subsequent defeats we saw something close to surrender. You cannot surrender. You have to believe the next play will turn a losing game your way, to believe your defensive back can strip a receiver in the end zone or that your punt coverage can induce a fumble.
The teams headed for Indianapolis aren’t going because everything went right. They’ll grace the Super Bowl because they kept playing hard enough to make something go right. For all the good work done by this administration, I still don’t see the same unyielding demeanor in the Falcons I see in champions. I see instead a team that hasn’t yet decided how good it cares to be.
By Mark Bradley
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267 comments Add your comment
Suq Madique
January 24th, 2012
4:56 pm
As a fan ,,, I am just overall less interested, following the Dawn of Realization that hit when we saw Matty Freeze continue his post-season sphincter act. Wholesale change is unfortunately required and that starts with unloading an incompetant GM in Dimitroff – and McKay has turned out to be a helluva an advisor, eh? Years have to pass (unfortunately) before you see the net results. Dimitroff looked brilliant early on, as did Matty Freeze his first season ,,,, but now we are seeing the failures as clear as day. More focus should be on Dimitroff, as he is the main reason we have the lack of talent on both sides of the ball. Wake up Blank!
Phalcon Phil
January 24th, 2012
5:20 pm
Ryan is good but he’s not great like some people think and he damn sure aint bordering on elite like some of the homers claim. It’s not just the playoffs. He played horribly against better competition most of the season and most of his career. He can win a super bowl but it will be like trent dilfer or brad johnson where everything around him including the run game and defense MUST be elite. He’ll never be a guy to put the team on his back and win against the big boys. I’m not impressed with thumping tampa or jacksonville. sorry.
DLee
January 24th, 2012
6:40 pm
Get rid of Mike Turner..dude sucks..what kind of large thick-legged RB gets stopped on 4th and 1 time and time again. He tiptoes behind the LOS and cant perform against above average teams.
5 things falcrons must change to win:
1. Axe turner. 2. LOVE Grimes, Dunta is good at times but we need a new nickel DB and second corner cause their both practice dummies right now. If our DBs start stepping up and defending well thatll allow our Dline to do what theyre capable of doing which is causing mass havoc. 3. Overhaul the Oline..theyre terrible. 4. adopt a “speedy” type receiver (a welker or sproles type player). Personally I believe that Harry Douglass could fill this role and do a good job. Sort of played this role in a few preseason games and performed quite well, but during reg season the team seemed to go away from him and barely target him at all. Julio could perform or supplement this position well also. Whoever…we need one of these type of WR to make our offense reach that high-octane level like the Pats or Saints. 5. A motivator to wake this team up in the postseason. Mike smith hasnt done this but i think he definitely can. ATL fans dont lose faith in smith pls. Team members need to speak up as well cause this team has no leaders right now..calling out you ryan, WHITE, tony g, abraham, emerging LBs, Grimes.
And bring back the DIRTY BIRD!
GO FALCRONS!
Arthur's New Stadium
January 25th, 2012
4:46 am
Arthur wants the taxpayers to build him a state of the art, open air stadium for $700 million plus, and tear down the Ga Dome. He’ll keep all the revenue and make a lot more money with more corporate suites. Fans get hosed with higher prices of everything, taxpayers get hosed, but Arthur gets richer!!! Pay up chumps and enjoy that cold, rainy stadium!!
musicrockinrobin
January 25th, 2012
7:11 am
Yup, you are correct. The one lesson the Falcons have to learn is that the intensity goes up and the hitting gets harder. You have to step it up, and it’s not all on Matt Ryan or Michael Turner. I hope we get back to running the ball and get some offensive linemen to do so. Yes, our defense must get better, younger, faster, bigger.
Bobo is Not the Problem
January 25th, 2012
11:39 am
Test.
Bobo is Not the Problem
January 25th, 2012
11:39 am
kappellmeister – it was HASKEL Stanback not Walter. Also, you left out my personal favorite, Bubba Bean.
Bobo is Not the Problem
January 25th, 2012
11:40 am
George Stein – you said, “They’ve lost to the best team in the conference each time. I don’t see the shame in that.” You must also be a UGA fan. You are happy that we lose to “better teams”. What a losing attitude. Did it ever occur to you to want to BE the better team?
Bobo is Not the Problem
January 25th, 2012
11:40 am
George Stein – you said, “They’ve lost to the best team in the conference each time. I don’t see the shame in that.”
You are happy that we lose to “better teams”. What a losing attitude. Did it ever occur to you to want to BE the better team?
Coach
January 25th, 2012
1:57 pm
All you brilliant football minds instead of firing coaches and releasing players answer this question if get rid of the coaching staff who are going to get to replace them that will get to the next level. If we cut Matt Ryan who do suggest for Quarterback Chris Redman do you think Mike Vick is going to come back?
tyger
January 25th, 2012
9:38 pm
MATT TAP WATER RYAN
Jeff
January 26th, 2012
12:31 pm
Great article Mark, this analysis rings true. Atlanta lacks the edge, on both offense and defense, that’s necessary to beat great teams. Let’s hope that the new coordinators can find that edge – the talent is surely there already.
goodgod
January 26th, 2012
4:30 pm
72 million dollar ryn scores zero points in playoff game. goes 0 – 3 in career playoffs….he produces a lot of zero but not the ones we like!!!
Mo
January 26th, 2012
10:08 pm
Pro Football Focus graded Dunta Robinson 101st of 109 qualifying cornerbacks in 2011. Robinson ranked an even worse 105th in pass coverage.
todd
January 27th, 2012
2:58 am
Everyone here knows so much about sports… Its just amazing. I think the ESPN writer was correct in saying Atlanta fans don’t deserve to win anything. Its funny how when the Falcons win ONE game you’re the same people saying how great they are. And Bradley- you don’t know what the hell you’re talking about. You could put Brady, Manning, or Rodgers on this team and they would still be 0-3 in the playoffs. The problem isn’t the QB. Its the idiotic run first mentality and running on 1st and 2nd down. Then trying to throw on 3rd and long. Its an out dated philosophy.
EC
January 27th, 2012
12:28 pm
The real reason the falcons are always home in Jan is because the team is just to SMALL…every team we have played in the Playoff where bigger and dominated the LOS…Go get the Big Boys if your serious about winning.
snookums
January 29th, 2012
4:07 am
I’m not sure who it was, but somebody watched us lose to the packers last year and decided…All we needed was another wide receiver! He should be fired immediately and his identity withheld so guys like me won’t flatten his tires in the Wal-Mart parking lot. The biggest problem this team has had all my life, and I’m a native, is poor talent evaluation. Some teams can pick in the 10th round and get a winner. The Falcons have found winners …by mistake. For example, somebody in the Falcons organization watched Brett Favre play and decided he was okay….but he wasn’t “no Billie Joe Tolliver!” And we got his talented *ss out of here. So he’s probably on his way to Canton. And it didn’t end there. We had a cornerback who defined the term “Shut Down Corner” Once again somebody in the front office decided he wasn’t worth the money he wanted so Deion Sanders joined the Niners and we haven’t replaced him yet. We went after a guy name Jeff George who had one of the biggest arms I’ve ever seen. But it wasn’t as big as his head. (sigh). And we’ve paid big money for these guys! So lets not forget our luck with free agents…..Ed Hartwell ring a bell? We need a quarterback. Matt Ryan is “Matty Nice”. Take him home and introduce him to your daughter.He doesn’t throw the deep ball as well as Chris Miller. I knew a guy on your staff who had a phrase for a guy like Matt. He’s good enough to get you beat!! He’s a “heartbreaker” but it’s YOUR heart he’s breaking. The reason Turner looks so bad in the playoffs is because teams gear up to stop the only threat the Falcons have. They stop the run and DARE Ryan to beat them with the pass. He hasn’t done it yet. The Falcons need a quarterback with wheels. Matt NEEDS a superior offensive line to function at his best. We can’t afford it in free agency or recognize it in the draft. Our quarterback needs to have wheels to help our running backs. Aaron Rodgers has wheels, Drew Breeze has wheels and Cam…..as well as Josh..well.. you get the picture.
We play each of those QBs twice each year. Our defense is at a disadvantage each time. The opposing defense can always find Matt. Get a quarterback to push Matt Ryan. Vick had Schaub, Bledsoe had Brady and Montana had Young. There is no reason to have our season end because we have to rely on Chris Redman to take us all the way. Chris (god bless him) couldn’t sit on the bench for most teams in the NFL without buying a ticket. One of the biggest indictments of the Falcons talent evaluation process is the fact that HE’S STILL HERE! We need a running back. A fast scatback with breakaway speed. He should be able to break ankles getting into the secondary. He should make people in the dome stand up everytime he touches the ball so they don’t miss a “move”. Mike Turner needs to be pused as well. We need a guard and or tackle with Harvey Dahls’ bad attitude. And we need somebody at safety who can run like he stole something and hit like he’s mad. And if Dimitrof didn’t ride in here on somebody elses’ hard work, he’ll deliver all the above