So why haven’t these Falcons gotten closer to a Super Bowl?
"Extra, extra! Read all about it! The team that beat the Falcons wins NFC!" (AP photo)
Three times in four seasons, the Falcons of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan have been eliminated by the eventual NFC champ. This isn’t, however, to suggest they keep being undone by an unlucky draw. In each case, the Falcons entered with the better regular-season record. When it happens once or even twice, we can shrug and say, “Them’s the breaks.” When it happens three times since 2008, we pluck at common threads. And we find …
• In each case, the Falcons held a lead. They’d rallied from a 14-3 deficit to lead 17-14 at the half in Phoenix on Jan. 3, 2009, but the Arizona Cardinals — who’d lost four of their final six regular-season games to finish 9-7 — scored the next 16 points. The game turned on the second play of the second half, when Darnell Dockett thwarted Ryan’s handoff to Michael Turner. Antrell Rolle grabbed the ball and returned it for a touchdown.
Against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome on Jan. 15, 2010, the Falcons led 7-0 after the Packers’ Greg Jennings fumbled on the opening possession and 14-7 after Eric Weems returned a kickoff 102 yards. But Tramon Williams intercepted Ryan twice in the second quarter, and the second, on the half’s final play, was returned for the touchdown that gave Green Bay a 28-14 lead.
Against the Giants in the Meadowlands two weeks back, the Falcons’ lead was more modest. But they missed a chance to make it 9-0 when, after the first-quarter safety, they drove to the Giants’ 42 but chose to punt on fourth-and-1. (As we know, the Falcons couldn’t get a fourth-and-1 right this whole season.)
• In each case, the Falcons were feeble after halftime. They were outscored 16-7 by Arizona, 20-7 by Green Bay, 17-0 by the Giants. (That’s an aggregate of 53-14.) On the only fourth-quarter play of the three games that truly mattered, linebacker Keith Brooking, since jettisoned, bit on Kurt Warner’s play-fake on third-and-16; the conversion enabled Arizona to run out the clock.
• In each case, Ryan was the second-best quarterback on the field. Ryan had six turnovers and was tackled for a safety in his first two playoff starts, and he hasn’t yet thrown for even 200 yards in a postseason game. His playoff passer rating is 71.8, which is awful. But saying Ryan has been the second-best quarterback on the field cuts both ways.
• In each case, the Falcons’ defense had no answer for the opposing quarterback. Granted, the three quarterbacks in question — Warner, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning — are/were outstanding. But the Falcons’ defense has managed a total of three sacks and one interception (by Chevis Jackson on a tipped ball against Arizona) in those three playoff losses, and the aggregate passer rating against Atlanta has been 123.5, which is obscene.
• In each case, Michael Turner was no factor. His rushing numbers in the playoff losses are notably similar — 42 yards against Arizona, 39 against Green Bay, 41 against the Giants. His longest rush in those three games has been 13 yards. He has scored one touchdown.
OK, enough fun with numbers. What conclusions can be drawn?
That Ryan isn’t yet good enough to win playoff games by himself. That Turner is just another guy when the playoffs arrive. That playoff-caliber defenses can push the Falcons’ offensive line backward. That the Falcons’ defense, overhauled after the Arizona loss, still isn’t of winning playoff-caliber. (You must get sacks. You must force turnovers. You must make great quarterbacks play less than great.) That an offense capable of winning 43 regular-season wins over four seasons has been made to look outmoded in January.
And now you’re asking: With all these failings, should the Falcons throw up their hands in surrender? Why, no. Hiring two new coordinators in the same offseason is the closest thing to a fresh start a winning franchise can have. Mike Mularkey’s pitch-and-putt offense didn’t work in the postseason, and Brian VanGorder’s defense made almost nothing happen in those three playoff losses. Now Dirk Koetter and Mike Nolan get to try. It’s possible that they’ll do better. Regarding recent postseason results, it’s not possible to do worse.
But there is, believe it or not, a greater concern than tactics. Only once in the three playoff losses did the Falcons even stir in the second half, and that was against Arizona. In the two subsequent defeats we saw something close to surrender. You cannot surrender. You have to believe the next play will turn a losing game your way, to believe your defensive back can strip a receiver in the end zone or that your punt coverage can induce a fumble.
The teams headed for Indianapolis aren’t going because everything went right. They’ll grace the Super Bowl because they kept playing hard enough to make something go right. For all the good work done by this administration, I still don’t see the same unyielding demeanor in the Falcons I see in champions. I see instead a team that hasn’t yet decided how good it cares to be.
By Mark Bradley
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267 comments Add your comment
Bobby
January 23rd, 2012
6:49 pm
The best that could have happened, happened. We were not a SB team and we needed to forced to realize we are not just one game away as they though last year. That 13-3 to me was a mirage and GB showed the Falcons how far away we really were. Know one wanted to see it based on the record. After that game I said we need speed in the backfield and speed on defense and of course a better O-line. We got killed last year by Kolb and the Eagles. that game was over by half-time. Their speed killed us. Matt Ryan – still not sold on him and his big wind up arm but can’t improve with anything that’s available on the market. This year we were getting torched by back-up QB’s so how are we supposed to think we can compete, “Really” Compete. Why is that some organizations can be up some years go down and come back up again – Giants, 49ers but all we can do is blip on the screen and never to be seen as a dominate team for about 10 years. One SB appearance in 40+ years and that was a good team but the next year the wheels came off. Vick came in but he was lazy along with the wrong coaching and scheme so we were in no mans land but at least is was exciting. Now we are stuck in good enough not to get great draft picks but bad nough to not really be feared by anyone. If I was the GMI I would concentrate on the O-line and D-line and a speed back (with size). Matt Ryan needs a team with a “Great” defense. I think any QB would love our receivers. We should be shredding defenses up. Like Roddy White said “Greatest show on turf” with him and JJ but heforget the main ingredient, Kurt Warner quick release.
Reality
January 23rd, 2012
6:52 pm
1) Falcons players are not well conditioned
2) Falcons players are not multi-talented
3) Falcons coaches are not good teachers
4) Falcons coaches do not make in game adjustments
5) Falcons ownership does not demand excellence
6) Falcons fans support mediocrity
7) Falcons can’t change quickly due to union and trade rules
Falcons need new focus, not a new arena
Nauti-dawg
January 23rd, 2012
6:54 pm
They could do worse than 3 playoff loses…. They could not make it there. Look for a break even season next year. Then it’s on Smithy for the lame coaching hires. … But it could be even worse, we could have the Clampetts back. Should we be thankful for small favors?
Charleston Jacket
January 23rd, 2012
6:56 pm
Ditto – good article. Still trying to understand how Smith stayed on as the HC. Looking forward to next year. Near to pick up some talent in FA as well all know our draft picks are pretty sparse.
WS
January 23rd, 2012
6:56 pm
Mark I agree with you. In each game, Falcons were outcoached on both side of ball. Second half Smith gave up and team did as well.
I like the New defense coach. He will improve falcon D. Dirk I hope, he helps Falcons.he couldn’t be any worst than MM. I read that Andy Reid has worked with him and said he has a great offense mind, just never had players.
I do not understand how Smith is Still head coach. I still say BVG was running Smiths defense, just as Smith order him too. MM hands were tied by Smith.Time will show who it was.I hope Mr Blanks told Smith too keep hands off the offense and defense C or its his job!
Sheffield
January 23rd, 2012
6:58 pm
yall suck as fans!!! Who calls their team heartless!! You get OUT THERE! I wouldnt catch yall on my flag team…yall prolly outta shape and WEAK. This team is headed in the right direction…they lack coaching…not heart!! Chill out!! By the way we practice at Washington park up the street from the dome…come out…let’s how much HEART you got!! Go Falcons!!
Falcons Only Need 2 Things - Defense and Offense!
January 23rd, 2012
7:01 pm
Why do these other teams defenses get BETTER in the playoffs where the Falcons defense is always worse? Are their players stepping up or our guys taking a dump? Is it the players, the scheme, the game plan, or the execution? NE and NY defenses sucked during regular season and they won the games for them in the playoffs. How does that happen?
On the offensive side of the ball, I am putting most of it on Matt Ryan.
Every time Manning bought some time in the pocket and flicked a 20 yard dart for a COMPLETED pass, all I could think of was that Matt Ryan just cannot do that.
Did you see Brady jump OVER the line to score a TD? Yeah that’s right, Matt Ryan just can’t do that.
How about when Flacco ran for 50+ yards and didn’t look like my little sister doing it? Yeah, Matt Ryan runs like a refugee from the Geek Squad.
I like Matt. He has lots of tools but he needs to spend this off-season with a training staff turning himself into a better stronger ATHLETE.
CGD..
January 23rd, 2012
7:05 pm
dawg tired
January 23rd, 2012
2:45 pm
“Watching the wins by the 9-7 Giants were depressing as a Falcons fan. Eli Manning can hit players in stride, Nicks and Cruz can catch a pass without dropping it, the Giants O-line can get a push to get short yardage for a first down and the Giants D can put pressure on the opposing quarterback to get a 3 and out. Even Jacobs can out run defenders once he breaks free.
I feel like I have been sold a bill of goods on Ryan and the Falcons.”
Your onto something Sir!
Matt Ryan is an overrated Throw back Obsolete QB…
Cant win the money game cause he does not have the talent…
Bobby
January 23rd, 2012
7:06 pm
@AngryBirdsATL – No tme line? I hope I get to see us win one before I die. We haven’t won one in 40+years I only have 40 more to go. Arron Roders has only been a starter for like 3 years right?
The Saints went out and got a Great QB and I knew he would be trouble once the Saints picked him up. Its not Ryan’s fault we haven’t won; I mean Trent Dilfer one a SB and so did that guy for the Buc’s but they both had great defenses. Without a great defense Ryan will not get you a SB unless this offense becomes something it hasn’t been. Ryan is a “Good” QB but not elite. He is not coordinated, can’t run and has a slow delivery (frankly he’s goofy atheletically). People compare him to be Brady like…..maybe physically but not mentally and Brady has a much quicker delivery. Bottom line if Matt Ryan is our Guy we need a “Dominate” defense…..
Perspective
January 23rd, 2012
7:07 pm
If you read the Choke posts the team will never win until they bring back Vick. Back on earth, the team needs lines on both sides. The talent at skill positions supports quick short passes. There isn’t time and Ryan is not accurate with long ball. Ryan needs to bulk up. He is a string bean. Let’s not take for granted 4 winning seasons. Beats the years we went into season playing for draft position with no hope. Time to take next step. Short window.
CGD..
January 23rd, 2012
7:08 pm
This is a QB driven league…Not Receiver driven or Running Back driven…..
Flacco> Ryan for less than half the price!
72 million vs. 30 million
stizz
January 23rd, 2012
7:10 pm
Shutup CGD
nycfalcon
January 23rd, 2012
7:11 pm
Exactly right! No heart.
Nativebird
January 23rd, 2012
7:26 pm
You can have all the FIGHT in the world in your heart….but if your lame brain coordinator has you positioned for a run blitz in the gap when then opponent is running jail break screens….your not going to be successful. 90% of success in a largely talent parity league is scheme and preparedness. If your schemes are designed and called by idiots….you lose.
Rtruth
January 23rd, 2012
7:41 pm
Step 1- Fire TD- He has no clue.
Step 2- Fire Smith. He is not a strong leader.
Step 3- Trade Matt Ryan. Not accurate. No guts.
O'Brien
January 23rd, 2012
7:42 pm
For all the good work done by this administration, I still don’t see the same unyielding demeanor in the Falcons I see in champions. I see instead a team that hasn’t yet decided how good it cares to be.
Isnt this a reflection on the HC?
Not a Falcon fan
January 23rd, 2012
7:43 pm
The Falcons are just a losing franchise. Just look at their history. I have said this for years. Different owners, coaches, players, even different stadiums. Same old falCANTs. Losers !!!! The falCANTS will never “rise up”.
CGD..
January 23rd, 2012
7:44 pm
Eli got hammered out there yesterday and never lost his cool..Just kept slinging it!
What a leader! What a QB! A winner for sure….
CGD..
January 23rd, 2012
7:48 pm
Rtruth
January 23rd, 2012
7:41 pm
“Step 1- Fire TD- He has no clue.
Step 2- Fire Smith. He is not a strong leader.
Step 3- Trade Matt Ryan. Not accurate. No guts.”
Keep these three amigos and Mr. Blank will be 0-4…Same same same results…..YAWN…….
yo Vince
January 23rd, 2012
7:48 pm
WOW.. the barn door is opened for the haters. MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
cdog
January 23rd, 2012
7:51 pm
needed michael vick over the past 3 years when the o-line was intact. i’m convinced that mentally, matt ryan is not a championship quarterback. he’s scared on the road and in playoff games.mike smith freezes up and let officials take his games.i think they should look hard at the quarterback position next year.hope the new coordinator correct bothsides of the ball. smith should leave mike nolan alone.smith 4-3 hasn’t stop noone yet so let nolan run the 3-4 defense. hope he doesn’t get caught up admiring teams such as the saints and drew brees as smith, murlarkey and van gorder did.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 23rd, 2012
7:58 pm
CHOKE just plain SUCKSSSSS
HA HA HA
Get rid of that ZERO and get a HERO
fitzrox
January 23rd, 2012
8:01 pm
nice article – and comments – the bottom line – need shutdown corner, better O-line and a younger running back. Dunta reminds me of Ray “Give of the Big Play” Buchanon. Don’t know what the deal is with offensive line, but it needs to improve. Falcons cannot afford to allow pressure with a four man rush. Look at Brady, he stands back in the pocket all day and looks great as a result. You pressure him and he looks average.
Turner is a more difficult question – he just does not hit the hole like he used to — compare him to Ray Rice. Night and day.
Dee
January 23rd, 2012
8:17 pm
Defense Defense Defense…. The Falcons have not been able to put pressure on a quarter back in the playoffs, a corner can only cover for so long….I would like to see us get a pass rusher at outside line backer and add a corner back with size to our secondary…..
dmac
January 23rd, 2012
8:30 pm
Look, the Falcons were out couched, you gotta know your strengths and we all knew 4th and 1 up the middle wasn’t a strength of this team. Falcons have to make defenses play the whole field. Maybe new OC can. Looks like another playoff loss could be a slate cleaner…
Brooklyn Falcon
January 23rd, 2012
8:32 pm
Take it from a Die Hard Falcon Fan who lives in NYC compared to the Giants and alot of the successful Franchises (Steelers, Patriots, 49ers, Cowboys, Ravens, Colts, Packers,) Look at the Francises that have Multiple Championships SEC or College football in General is not more important than Pro Fottball there is the major difference sometimes the Falcons are an after thought. That being said OUR DAY WILL COME keep supporting….and our team will have that LOMBARDI Trophy. This is one of the best Falcon teams I have ever watched, we have to be patient and build…..yeah we are not there yet… I knew that week one vs the Bears when the O line couldnt block but we will be soon then everyone will love the PRO team the FALCONS!!!
Tarmar
January 23rd, 2012
8:33 pm
MOST excellent assessment, Mark. Must be why I keep reading you.
Mark Bradley
January 23rd, 2012
8:41 pm
Why, thanks, Tarmar.
Buzzeng
January 23rd, 2012
8:50 pm
Seems to me that you could make this same point for most any Atlanta team (Braves, Hawks, Thrashers, GT). No killer instinct. Maybe it’s the living in the land of southern hospitality… players are too polite.
Jockich Ahn Smelley, II
January 23rd, 2012
8:50 pm
Is Bradley that stupid??? Let’s quit trying to be the perfect Corporate Citizens of the Gentile South and start getting players with an Edge……screw the corporate look…….
Load the box
January 23rd, 2012
8:55 pm
It’s quite simple…Load the box to stop the run (Turner/Snelling/Rodgers/Norwood in the past) and make Matt Ryan beat you, which he has shown he can not do. His record is 3-16 throwing 40+ times a game and only 1 of those wins was on the road – this year in Seattle.
This season, when running game was shut down, and those happen, from time to time, Ryan was 1-6 throwing 40+ times. Eli just won the NFC chunking it 50+ times…
Load the box
January 23rd, 2012
8:57 pm
We need Ivan Johnson!! He’s actually fun to watch on the hardwood, despite the turnovers.
catfish
January 23rd, 2012
8:59 pm
Maybe Mr. Blank should tape your “at the end of the day” composition to his door in Flowery Branch.
You are absolutely right. Look at how the other franchise owners handle their teams. Soon enough the noose will tighten around Mike Smith too if that has not already begun.
Mr. Thomas Anthony Jones, SR
January 23rd, 2012
9:12 pm
As someone who changed my allegiance from the Falcons to the Eagles when they backstabbed Mr. Michael Vick, the Quarterback of the team, I want to say it is the culure of the team. The Falcons backstabbed Mr. Vick, they dogged Mr. Grimes and his wife through the media. Only a fifth rated low class team uses the liars and snakes in the news Media to dog out a player so as pay him less. Matty Ice is not a play-off caliber QB. He is third rate in the playoffs. Mr. Vick won more games in the play-off. Matty Ice is overrated by the News Media experts that we the people do nottrust. We fired the coordinators. Instead fire the head coack Smith. The problem is top down and not bottom up. Finally nothing is wrong with Mr. Turner. The NFL is four ganes to at least.Let’s go backto10 or 12 regular season games.
Hal
January 23rd, 2012
9:16 pm
Well said Mark. I hope all Falcon coaches and players will take heed to this info.
PMC
January 23rd, 2012
9:21 pm
Our defense did get better in the playoffs. They played well enough to win outside of one or two busted coverages. The offense let the team down big time.
PMC
January 23rd, 2012
9:25 pm
Giants fans fire Couglin on a week to week basis, they haven’t done squat since 2007 but they stayed the course and they are back.
We started out from square one like we have so many times, and they did a reasonably decent job but they’ve had some significant talent misses that have set them back.
We haven’t found enough impact players on the lines of scrimmage, other teams have.
Sheffield
January 23rd, 2012
9:39 pm
brooklyn you ever go to 200 5th?
Jason
January 23rd, 2012
9:45 pm
Mark, all your stats point to the Oline, and the DB’s and until those are fixed by bringing in better quality players, we will have the same results.
Mark Bradley
January 23rd, 2012
9:49 pm
I’m not sure the stats don’t point to the defensive line, Jason.
Jeff
January 23rd, 2012
9:53 pm
The defense, with the exception of the nickel backs, has played it’s guts out against the saints.
Ryan is good, but he is the last Qb would want to run a sneak- it just ain’t in him. If roddy white worked as hard at catching balls as hie does running his mouth, we would be the NFC champs.
Bottom line, and this is the decision falcons have to make: is the Qb going to extend plays like a champion rothlessberber or manning (slime)? Are they going to make the catches on offense and the interceptions on defense? The Hines wards and the polumalus and the Ed Reeds?
Is the coach going to continue to call plays the everyone in the house knows he will call especially on 4th and one.
For the first time in it’s history, the Falcons are consistently beating the team s they are supposed to beat. They are consistently posting winning seasons. THANK YOU MR. BLANK & MS & DIMITROV
Now it is time to make the choice to BECOME AN ELITE TEAM OF ELITE PLAYERS AND ELETE COACHES!
Jeff
January 23rd, 2012
9:57 pm
sorry, Rothlesberger was the “slime”
Jon
January 23rd, 2012
10:11 pm
After watching two defenses that are worst than ours reach the Superbowl. And watch two QBs that get rid of the ball under 2 secs On the money..the problem are the excuses we make for smitty and Ryan. They cannot get it done and this conversation and outcome will remain the same as long as they are here.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 23rd, 2012
10:25 pm
Did anyone see that Raven’s qb that out performed the legendary Brady in his own house?
More yardage, touch downs and fewer interceptions.
Is that the same quarterback with 5 playoff wins that I told you LOSERS was better than CHOKE?
HA HA HA
CGD..
January 23rd, 2012
10:28 pm
Matt Ryan aint the one BUTTERFLY?
He beyond overrated by the Fal-cons and media! Fur Sure!
“His record is 3-16 throwing 40+ times a game and only 1 of those wins was on the road – this year in Seattle.”
Those stats are pathetic!
coming up= 0-4……Fur Sure……Yawn……..
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 23rd, 2012
10:30 pm
CHOKE has never thrown for 200 yards in a playoff game. Flacco had 300 plus vs the Patriots.
Enough said…………………..
HA HA HA
CGD..
January 23rd, 2012
10:30 pm
Ryan =72 million
Flacco=30 million
Somebody was sold a Bill of Goods! Fur Sure………Yawn…..
CGD..
January 23rd, 2012
10:33 pm
Ryan would have been sackeed 12 times yesterday and shutout 35-0 by the 49′ers….
Eric
January 23rd, 2012
10:33 pm
I have finally accepted the fact that we do not have a quarterback to carry us in the playoffs.
Algenis Marinez
January 23rd, 2012
10:33 pm
@Brooklyn Falcons, I totally agree with your comments on the Falcons. I’m from Queens,Ny, born and raised, I became a Atlanta Falcons fan in 1991. Deion Sanders, Andre Rison, 2 legit 2 quit team. These last 4 years has been bitter sweet. The four consecutive winning seasons, hence, the three early playoffs exit. However, in everygame I felt like the Atlanta Falcons franchise has taken something away from each playoff defeat. 2008 Upgrade the secondary, 2010 a explosive deep threat, and 2011 Offensive line was mediorce at best. The Falcons are on the RISE!!!!!!