So why haven’t these Falcons gotten closer to a Super Bowl?
"Extra, extra! Read all about it! The team that beat the Falcons wins NFC!" (AP photo)
Three times in four seasons, the Falcons of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan have been eliminated by the eventual NFC champ. This isn’t, however, to suggest they keep being undone by an unlucky draw. In each case, the Falcons entered with the better regular-season record. When it happens once or even twice, we can shrug and say, “Them’s the breaks.” When it happens three times since 2008, we pluck at common threads. And we find …
• In each case, the Falcons held a lead. They’d rallied from a 14-3 deficit to lead 17-14 at the half in Phoenix on Jan. 3, 2009, but the Arizona Cardinals — who’d lost four of their final six regular-season games to finish 9-7 — scored the next 16 points. The game turned on the second play of the second half, when Darnell Dockett thwarted Ryan’s handoff to Michael Turner. Antrell Rolle grabbed the ball and returned it for a touchdown.
Against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome on Jan. 15, 2010, the Falcons led 7-0 after the Packers’ Greg Jennings fumbled on the opening possession and 14-7 after Eric Weems returned a kickoff 102 yards. But Tramon Williams intercepted Ryan twice in the second quarter, and the second, on the half’s final play, was returned for the touchdown that gave Green Bay a 28-14 lead.
Against the Giants in the Meadowlands two weeks back, the Falcons’ lead was more modest. But they missed a chance to make it 9-0 when, after the first-quarter safety, they drove to the Giants’ 42 but chose to punt on fourth-and-1. (As we know, the Falcons couldn’t get a fourth-and-1 right this whole season.)
• In each case, the Falcons were feeble after halftime. They were outscored 16-7 by Arizona, 20-7 by Green Bay, 17-0 by the Giants. (That’s an aggregate of 53-14.) On the only fourth-quarter play of the three games that truly mattered, linebacker Keith Brooking, since jettisoned, bit on Kurt Warner’s play-fake on third-and-16; the conversion enabled Arizona to run out the clock.
• In each case, Ryan was the second-best quarterback on the field. Ryan had six turnovers and was tackled for a safety in his first two playoff starts, and he hasn’t yet thrown for even 200 yards in a postseason game. His playoff passer rating is 71.8, which is awful. But saying Ryan has been the second-best quarterback on the field cuts both ways.
• In each case, the Falcons’ defense had no answer for the opposing quarterback. Granted, the three quarterbacks in question — Warner, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning — are/were outstanding. But the Falcons’ defense has managed a total of three sacks and one interception (by Chevis Jackson on a tipped ball against Arizona) in those three playoff losses, and the aggregate passer rating against Atlanta has been 123.5, which is obscene.
• In each case, Michael Turner was no factor. His rushing numbers in the playoff losses are notably similar — 42 yards against Arizona, 39 against Green Bay, 41 against the Giants. His longest rush in those three games has been 13 yards. He has scored one touchdown.
OK, enough fun with numbers. What conclusions can be drawn?
That Ryan isn’t yet good enough to win playoff games by himself. That Turner is just another guy when the playoffs arrive. That playoff-caliber defenses can push the Falcons’ offensive line backward. That the Falcons’ defense, overhauled after the Arizona loss, still isn’t of winning playoff-caliber. (You must get sacks. You must force turnovers. You must make great quarterbacks play less than great.) That an offense capable of winning 43 regular-season wins over four seasons has been made to look outmoded in January.
And now you’re asking: With all these failings, should the Falcons throw up their hands in surrender? Why, no. Hiring two new coordinators in the same offseason is the closest thing to a fresh start a winning franchise can have. Mike Mularkey’s pitch-and-putt offense didn’t work in the postseason, and Brian VanGorder’s defense made almost nothing happen in those three playoff losses. Now Dirk Koetter and Mike Nolan get to try. It’s possible that they’ll do better. Regarding recent postseason results, it’s not possible to do worse.
But there is, believe it or not, a greater concern than tactics. Only once in the three playoff losses did the Falcons even stir in the second half, and that was against Arizona. In the two subsequent defeats we saw something close to surrender. You cannot surrender. You have to believe the next play will turn a losing game your way, to believe your defensive back can strip a receiver in the end zone or that your punt coverage can induce a fumble.
The teams headed for Indianapolis aren’t going because everything went right. They’ll grace the Super Bowl because they kept playing hard enough to make something go right. For all the good work done by this administration, I still don’t see the same unyielding demeanor in the Falcons I see in champions. I see instead a team that hasn’t yet decided how good it cares to be.
By Mark Bradley
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267 comments Add your comment
sam
January 23rd, 2012
3:09 pm
it’s the coaching and the GM. Not enough depth on the team. It takes 53 men to win a SB. Just look at the Patriots and the Giants. The no name safety saves the Pats from a loss by knocking the ball out of Lee Evan’s hands. He was cut from the Oakland practice squad before the season. Victor Cruz, undrafted FA, who turned out to be a star WR for the giants. Why can’t the Falcons find these hidden gems? They go for big name players and struck out way too many times.
Don
January 23rd, 2012
3:10 pm
the Buzzards dont have a Quater Back that can get the ball down field he suck and so do Mike Smith!
Stinger
January 23rd, 2012
3:12 pm
Matty Melt, Coach Smith, and trading away a boat load of pics for a reciever.
sam
January 23rd, 2012
3:12 pm
now that the saints have hired Steve Spagnuolo as the DC, we’re gonna get killed by the Saints 2x/ year until Drew Brees retires
Nate
January 23rd, 2012
3:15 pm
Why? Matt Ryan and poor coaching. The best defense is still a good offense because it puts pressure on the opposing teams to score. The Falcons offense never puts the other teams under pressure to keep up in the scoring game. Quarterbacks like the Mannings, Brady, Rodgers, Warner, and Brees will eat you alive if they never feel pressured in a game.
ViningsDawg
January 23rd, 2012
3:17 pm
These losses remind you of Brave’s playoff losses… No character when the going gets tough, and no offense.
Walker, Texas Ranger
January 23rd, 2012
3:17 pm
I guess the same reason I haven’t won an Emmy, we are both awesome and people are either jealous or scared! By the way, nice article.
Ted M
January 23rd, 2012
3:22 pm
“I still don’t see the same unyielding demeanor in the Falcons I see in champions. I see instead a team that hasn’t yet decided how good it cares to be.”
Those are pretty strong words. Whose fault is that?
Barney
January 23rd, 2012
3:22 pm
And the Falcons are raising my season tickets 15%. No way I’m renewing my tickets. 15%!!! It’s a joke. Do you want to know how much my salary increased in the last 3 years? 0%.
Boom Dizzle
January 23rd, 2012
3:23 pm
Until this team, spends the money on the lines of scrimmage. Nothing will change. They absolutely got violated vs the Giants D-line.
As far as the defense, (I’m just keeping it to the Giants game) I think they did surrender. When they kept getting the ball back, getting the ball back in the 1st half of that game and the offense could do NOTHING with it. What’s the point?
Even if they held the Giants to a FG, they still would’ve lost b/c the explosive offense of Mularkey put up 0!!!
Walker, Texas Ranger
January 23rd, 2012
3:24 pm
Mark let me respond to your remarks. First holding the lead and feeble after the half go hand in hand. Falcons always seem feeble after the half. As for Ryan being the second best QB, he did play three guys that I bet will be in the Hall of Fame. Also, we were beaten all three times by the eventual NFC Champion. We have just caught all three teams at their peak of heat. And last Turner is never a factor against a superior defense. As for the secondary not having an answer, they usually don’t. The Falcons are like the Braves in so many ways, but the bottom line is both have playoff material players but not championship caliber players.
Brian Hunt
January 23rd, 2012
3:25 pm
The thing that both Turner and Ryan have in common when the playoffs roll around is that they play behind a less than good offensive line. McClure is the best pf the group and his better days are well behind him. The skill position players don’t matter when you are weak in the trenches. The defense plays well for a half, but it wears down when kept on the field because the offense can’t get it going.
Casual Observer
January 23rd, 2012
3:26 pm
Not a Falcon Fan but I do have an opinon as I like the Falcons and want them to succeed. First I’ll step up on my soapbox and fuss at the fans for a moment.
Your Falcons have enjoyed the best 4 year run in the history of the franchise. They may have not won a playoff game but they are very competitive. Quite frankly they are having a stretch where you can’t possibly see them falling off to the point of not having a winning season. I personally like where they are headed and look forward to see them figuring it out. Just remember it is easy to go from bad to good but almost impossible to go from good to great.
Matt Ryan – Not up for discussion. Really, geez what do you guys want? how many Brady’s, Bree’s, Rodgers and Manning’s are there in the NFL? Think about it for a minute. The kid is taking his lumps and waiting his turn. Welcome to the NFL.
Mike Turner – 3rd leading rusher in the NFL. Best production for a 3 yr span than anyone (even JAM) than in team history yet he’s not good enough for some of you. How many Adrian Peterson’s, oops thats it as far as top notch rb’s that produce year in/out.
With that being said how do they get better? They actually took a step back with the OL play this year. The nastiness needed to accompany the JJ move just couldn’t be aligned. The OL needs to get nastier and some more depth (work in progress). The defense will improve. BVG was a stopgap and needed to go. Aggressivenes in FA and some maturity from the second tier players will improve this defense.
PMC
January 23rd, 2012
3:27 pm
The Falcons don’t make enough plays to get deeper into the playoffs. The teams left have more guys capable of making enough plays to win games, the Falcons have not drafted or signed the right guys or enough guys to make the plays they need to win these kinds of games.
Where other teams succeed, we have failed, since 1966
Hi
January 23rd, 2012
3:29 pm
cuz they suck. DUH!!!!
JB
January 23rd, 2012
3:29 pm
The Falcons have enough talent and coaching to be a middle of the road team. Not bad and not great.
They are missing a few pieces, and looked to of upgraded at DC…and we’ll just have to wait to see if the guy can help the offense. With Arthur holding a presser with those two guys ( Thomas &Smitty) at year end and not being happy and the comments he made about what he expects out of new coach’s, I’m reading into it that Smith has been put on notice, in a nice kind of way.
AP
January 23rd, 2012
3:37 pm
Am I the only one not sold on Mike Smith? His team lacks intensity! As for Michael Turner, he is not playoff caliber. He cannot create anything because he can’t move his feet. A complete liability in my humble opinion. I fear in the coming years, the discussion will turn to who is going to replace Smitty and not Super Bowl appearances. More of the same for Atlanta sports teams!
just sayin'
January 23rd, 2012
3:37 pm
juliet has really made this team explosive…HA..i agree with most and have been saying for a couple of years…melt is not the elite level qb coach clean shot and TD have been saying he is..he’s a GAME MANAGER…he can put up good numbers…20 completions…10yds a completion…that’s not explosive..he can’t hit receivers in stride…even those check downs over the middle are caught ‘in stride’..accept the fact he will NEVER lead this team to a SB…the only way this team makes it if melt is holding the clipboard on the sidelines…and coach clean shot is GONE…..
arrowhead1959
January 23rd, 2012
3:40 pm
Great article as I thought the same thing yesterday, especialy watching the NY/SF game; the Falcons just don’t play “crazy” and all out like those two teams did for four quarters; especially the defense. I hate to borrow a criticism from the Bravos, that they’re talented but too “professional”, but it seems to fit. Re: both teams, talent gets you to the playoffs but heart and desire wins in the playoffs.
observer
January 23rd, 2012
3:51 pm
The Falcons lack speed (other than Julio) at all of the skill positions on offense. It is painful to watch Turner, Snelling, Gonzalez plodding down the field. I expect the offensive line would look better if the team had more speed from backs, receivers. This problem is magnified when they play decent teams.
abby normal
January 23rd, 2012
3:54 pm
Hey, kappellmeister….that’s “Haskel” Stanback, not Walter.
DogTheMan
January 23rd, 2012
3:55 pm
I truly believe that we are not mentally touch. As I watched the games this weekend, the thing I notcied about all four teams was that no matter how tough the it got they kept plugging. The defenses hot harder, the lines blocked harder, the recievers worked harder to get open. And Finally the QB’s made gritty plays.. We do not have a trhowback or touch mentality. Until we do, we are an average football team..
Casual Observer
January 23rd, 2012
3:56 pm
JB – it was nice to see that from AB. He was professionally pissed off.
Arrowhead – I disagree only in that the SF/Giants defenses are two of the best in the league. However where were they the past few years? watching the playoffs. I do agree with the professional comment. I hate the discussion about team players and right kind of guys. blah blah blah. Gimme a knucklehead that can play and we’ll deal with all that other stuff.
beone
January 23rd, 2012
3:56 pm
Good conclusion, they don’t hate losing enough to do what it takes to win!
truthbtold
January 23rd, 2012
3:58 pm
In each case the Falcons could have won. The coaching and game plan was passive and soft. The Falcons played to hold a lead. They are afraid to run up the score (it’s not in their nature), and you never know how many points you might need. So if there’s time on the clock – the Falcons are in trouble. The Falcons brain-trust has built a team that moves the ball from the 20 to the 20, and they have not figured that out after all of these seasons. The dink and dunk passes are ineffective inside the red zone where the field is shorter, and everyone expects the same on run attack up the middle. This is a result of boring, unimaginative coaching in the NFL.
How about...
January 23rd, 2012
3:58 pm
…it starts at the top. Blank is Jerry Jones lite, meddlesome and largely clueless when it comes to running a franchise. He won’t stand for anyone that exhibits fire or has character issues, and it’s biting him. Why wasn’t he firing Smith last year? He should have hired a Harbaugh- maybe he has a sister that can coach the Falcons. I’m not saying AB doesn’t want to win, but that’s a non-argument- there isn’t an owner in any sport that doesn’t want to win. I say keep AB out of the limelight (and off the sidelines) and start spending the bucks to pick off the best coaches and front office people off winning teams. That’s what most teams in a rut like this do. Look at the Niners yesterday- they’ve stunk for almost a decade and now they play with heart and fire. These lame Jags coaches aren’t cutting it, and most of these players are just too soft.
SirReal
January 23rd, 2012
4:01 pm
Mark i didnt think about how LOW Turner’s numbers have been in the playoffs….the whole team for that matter!! Geez, is Turner our football equivalent of Joe Johnson? (This really makes me rethink the whole keeping Turner around thing. I’m still for keeping him but those numbers are telling….)
JB
January 23rd, 2012
4:04 pm
Smitty may be filling the role that Dooley is doing at Tennessee. Getting the team in shape for a real coach to come in a finish the job. Falcons have looked horrible in all playoff games under Smith.
PMC
January 23rd, 2012
4:05 pm
I’m still sold on Mike Smith. This was simply a bad year from July/August and camp through the preseason and the year, and they still won 10 games and went to the playoffs and could have won maybe 2 more if they made plays.
Last year was the first year since they’ve been here where the coaching staff looked out coached all year long against teams with equitable talent. That necessitated changes and I think we will see better coaching next season on.
For them to be as bad as they looked at times last season and still go 10-6 and make the playoffs means they are doing some things right. I still believe Mike Smith is the guy.
JB
January 23rd, 2012
4:06 pm
If Ryan is going to be the QB long term, they ought to build a TE passing game like New England has. Very quick,effective passes of 5-15 yards to 2 very sure handed TE’s.
dave
January 23rd, 2012
4:07 pm
The Falcons don’t seem to show a lot of heart in the playoffs. How can you be flat for the playoffs? They’re the PLAYOFFS!
PMC
January 23rd, 2012
4:07 pm
Turners numbers are generally low in the playoffs because he gets hurt by that time late in the year, because they have beaten him to death by that point. After the groin injury this year he was again less effective. The Falcons haven’t really addressed problems on the OL and they have overused Michael Turner since he got here.
How about...
January 23rd, 2012
4:08 pm
Alex Smith has a better playoff record than Matt Ryan, and he has tiny hands like the guy from the Burger King commercials. Sad. But it is a testament to the fact that this organization is soft and the current administration cannot ‘coach up’ anyone. They showed more heart when they missed the playoffs at 9-7, 2 years ago. These playoff appearances since have just been anomalies.
PMC
January 23rd, 2012
4:08 pm
There’s a difference in being flat and just not being good enough. The Falcons aren’t on the same level (talent or scheme) as the teams getting farther in the tournament.
JoeFan
January 23rd, 2012
4:09 pm
The Falcons don’t play hungry and they play with a lack of imagination. Hopefully the headcoach and new coordinators will remedy this mindset.
tim
January 23rd, 2012
4:09 pm
WHY? Cuz Roddy White lead the league in dropped passes.
He’s a loser.
Casual Observer
January 23rd, 2012
4:12 pm
Believe it or not this is the discussion that needs to be had. As an overview we are discussing how to break into the top tier (final 6-8 teams) of the NFL. Get out from under that tree in front of you and see the big picture for what its worth.
Falcon Realist
January 23rd, 2012
4:13 pm
Look no further than the GM (drafts and signs average talent), Head Coach (average on game day, sticks to plan, no adjustments) and QB (doesn’t like to get hit, average in pressure situations).
Trust me, the Falcons are like the cute girl who flirts, but you’ll never get past third base. A BIG TEASE.
2010 BCS Champs
January 23rd, 2012
4:13 pm
“So why haven’t these Falcons gotten closer to a Super Bowl?”
Bad coaching, bad play calling, Mark Bradleys bad predictions…….
PMC
January 23rd, 2012
4:14 pm
In truth look at the teams they’ve lost to. Arizona – better QB at the time. Falcons could and should have won that game on the road, but they couldn’t make a play on 3rd and 16.
Green Bay – better talent coached more effectively. They picked apart every flaw on the defense and had a perfect night. Everything went their way after early Falcon mistakes.
Giants – Complete; Physical Domination. This was the worst scheme the Falcons coaches have come up with in thier tenure. Just awful. Defense played well enough to win, the offense couldn’t make any plays, and the head coach was too faithful in his offensive line when he should have taken what was given in the 3pt attempts. Then it may have been closer.
Again, we lose on mistakes, both in picking talent, coaching and execution.
That’s been the common theme.
Ghosts of loserville
January 23rd, 2012
4:17 pm
When it happens once or even twice, we can shrug and say, “Them’s the breaks.” When it happens three times since 2008, we pluck at common threads. And we find …
I’ve said it many times. Though I won’t show up until playoff time, because that’s when the heartbraking is good and, well, I’m a heart-breaker. My curse will remain over this city until, well, I’m not sure what until …. I’m fickle that way ….
UGA Insider
January 23rd, 2012
4:18 pm
Simply they do not draft enough SEC talent.
True Falcon
January 23rd, 2012
4:19 pm
Simply put…Matt Ryan!
Bag Man
January 23rd, 2012
4:20 pm
Over this weekend I saw players on each side of the ball on all four teams, all QB could makeplays or extend plays, the defensive fronts were nasty and able to put pressure on the QB, the linebackers dropped ball carriers in their tracks, safeties would knock you silly and corners could cover. Sorry but the Bag will stay on my head, we do not have enough talent to make a change next season.
Noneya
January 23rd, 2012
4:24 pm
Days In The Lives Of Falcons Fans
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QKLJ4wY_yQ
jerry
January 23rd, 2012
4:25 pm
I would think that Dimitroff is most responsible, then Smith. If the players are average, have no talent, lazy, have no heart, not hungry, no speed, not big enough, Whatever! Who brought them to Atlanta?
Tumbledown
January 23rd, 2012
4:25 pm
Brave Hokie – I wish I could cite compelling evidence contrary to your thesis. Sadly, I cannot. From 1991-1996 (Game Four), the Braves played with heart. But that was crushed by Leyritz’s home run. The Falcons displayed great courage in the 1999 NFC Championship game against Minnesota, but Eugene Robinson’s embarassment sapped that show of heart. Other isolated displays of heart by Atlanta teams all ultimately led to defeat later on, often in pathetic and heartless efforts.
I do hold out some hope that this can change. Some hope is better than no hope.
Ghosts of loserville
January 23rd, 2012
4:25 pm
Until my spirit is put to rest — and I’m sorry I can’t tell you what the secret formula is — I will continue returning at post-season time to haunt this city with dropped passes, bad calls, star player booty calls turned front page headlines the night before big games, and other inexplicable events.
Jim Leyritz, Andy Pettitte, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning … the list of those I’ve decided to favor (or renew favor for) is long, but never too long to add another name to when an Atlanta sports franchise meets up with them in the post-season.
Until I am exorcised, I decree that the role of the Atlanta sports franchise will be to serve as a launching pad (no pun intended ..he hee) to superstardom for various other stars and teams whose time has finally come .. or has returned for one more bow.
Ghosts of loserville
January 23rd, 2012
4:31 pm
Jim Leyritz, Andy Pettitte, Aaron Rodgers, Danny White, Kirby Puckett, Eli Manning, Kurt Warner … the list is long, but never too long for me to add another name to it, of those stars who have found their greatest boon and blessing in facing an Atlanta team in the post-season.
And until my spirit is exorcised, I decree that the role of the Atlanta pro sports franchise will continue to be to serve as a launching pad to superstardom for other stars and teams.
Hamad Meander
January 23rd, 2012
4:32 pm
One way for the Falcons to get to the Supeerbowl, would be to beat themselves in the playoffs. It’s worked the last three times for the Cardinals, Packers, and Giants.
Seriously though, the Falcons don’t need a tremendous amount of new talent or a new coach. They need a new attitude and I think Bradly hits the nail on the head with that assessment.