Give Wren a hand for not overreacting to the Braves’ collapse
"And the award for most patient general manager goes to ... " (AJC photo by Jason Getz)
On Aug. 24, 2011, the Atlanta Braves awoke having won 78 games. Only one major-league team (Philadelphia) had won more. They led the wild-card race by 9 1/2 games with 32 remaining, and the in-house question wasn’t, “Are we going to blow this?” Instead, it was, “Can we win it all?”
Thirty-five days later, the Braves lost Game No. 162 in 13 innings and failed to qualify for the playoffs. They finished with 89 victories, having dropped 21 of those final 32. The collapse was so comprehensive that it took Frank Wren, the general manager, a few weeks just to be able to view baseball again, and his wasn’t a solitary response. Speaking with fellow Braves employees, uniformed staffers among them, he found they couldn’t watch, either.
But then it changed. By the end, Wren was watching — watching as the St. Louis Cardinals, the team that chased down the Braves, celebrated a World Series title.
“We did not play well in September,” Wren said this week, stating the obvious. “We had a really bad month.”
But now it’s a new year. Distance can’t erase what happened in September 2011, but distance has enabled Wren to see what was, to many eyes, obscured by the debris of a good season gone rotten. Yes, the Braves had a historically bad month, but that’s not the same as being a bad team.
The same Wren who has made trades hand over fist in other offseasons — and in the middle of seasons, too — has consummated only one significant deal this time, that being the sell-off of Derek Lowe to Cleveland. This absence of visible activity from a GM who tends to be hyperactive has left some Braves fans to wonder how a team-builder could fail to shore a team that failed so miserably. The answer is that Wren doesn’t believe the Braves of September were the real Braves.
Said Wren: “Once the disappointment fades, that’s the approach you have to take.”
And if the 2012 Braves do come north in April with this roster, how would Wren feel? “We’d feel like we had a chance to be an even better team than we were last year.”
We pause here for your scoffs: Team flops, team adds nobody of consequence, team expects to improve? Well, yes. The starting rotation, which lost two key men (Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson) to injury down the stretch, stands to be healthy again. The bullpen, which was the best part of the 2011 Braves, stands to be even deeper. And a man who arrived not long before last season came undone figures to have an outsize influence on 2012.
For years, Braves fans have demanded a True Leadoff Man. Wren found one, at not much cost, at the trading deadline. “Michael Bourn alone will change our offense,” Wren said. “He sets us up very well to take the current roster into the season.”
Last season the Braves’ offense stunk on ice. So long as the starting pitchers went deep into games and Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel held every lead, the wins kept coming, but when Jurrjens and Hanson went down and the overtaxed relievers began to wobble … well, that’s how you lose 21 of your final 32. A full season of Bourn — and a new hitting coach in Greg Walker — should help the offense, but Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward and Martin Prado have to hit better, too.
Wren: “People have to bounce back. [Some guys] have a lot to prove.”
For the moment, Wren sounds as content as Wren ever gets. “We don’t have to move players for financial reasons. We don’t have to make a move because we have big holes to fill.”
If Prado and Heyward return to All-Star form, the corner-outfield issue gets tabled. Shortstop is another matter, but the Braves have hopes for the rookie Tyler Pastornicky. Unless you were a huge fan of Lowe and/or the departed Alex Gonzalez, if you liked the Braves’ chances heading into last season you should like them again now.
“If everyone bounces back, we’ve got a good ballclub,” Wren said. “We don’t have a major need.”
There’s not apt to be a big trade coming this spring. (”As a practicality, that’s probably the case,” Wren said.) And here we have to salute this GM for resisting the mighty urge, in the backwash of an epic fade, to do something, anything, everything. What happened was bad, but the worst thing Wren could have done was to take one bad month as cause to wreck a team poised for a run of many good years. He didn’t. He got it right.
By Mark Bradley
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252 comments Add your comment
Fastball
January 19th, 2012
6:35 pm
Don’t count on Bourne. He won’t hit .250 or get 30 stolen bases. Alex Gongales saved more games than Kimbel. The new kid will be in the minors before June 1st. And Wren stood pat, …guess you need a pass into the interview room, uh.
The Bravenator
January 19th, 2012
6:36 pm
IF…IF…IF…IF……if what? Not doing a single thing to improve a team that totally collapsed when the chips were on the line is a good job of not overreacting. IF’s abound for this team and the Braves recent history of ifs working out isn’t good. Going into the Spring, half the positions in the line-up are significant ifs. Here’s a big one: IF Freddie doesn’t burn-up the bullpen again. Way too many ifs to consider the Braves any higher than a third place finish. That’s IF Washington doesn’t doesn’t come on as strongly as they’re projected. Keep dreaming Wren.
Mister Frisky
January 19th, 2012
6:36 pm
P.S. I almost forgot 4th Place.
Skeezix
January 19th, 2012
6:36 pm
Mark: He couldn’t make any serious moves because he had us so far in the hole from screwing up with KK, Lowe and McOut. We didn’t need overreacting, but we do need more stick and he hasn’t done squat to fix that problem.
I’m not giving him credit for anything.
Murph#3
January 19th, 2012
6:37 pm
Give the man ten or fifteen million more dollars to play with and the Braves could be a favorite to win it all. I haven’t looked at the numbers but as it stands I think that would put the Braves at about half of what the Phillies or Yankees payroll is. Their payrolls are approximately double what the Braves is but they also are at the top in attendance and surely it’s gonna cost you more to see them play. They have to be kicking the Braves butt when it comes to merchandising as well. The Braves could perhaps be one bat away from sparking their offense and making a run at a title other than Wild Card or almost Wild Card. I disagree with Wren when he says the team doesn’t really have a need. You may blame the past two seasons on whatever you want but there is no denying the offense has been lacking and below average. The offense struggled in one way or another throughout the entire 2011 season, not just in September. The Braves pitching and improved defense was the glue. This is why I can’t understand why Liberty Media won’t loosen their purse strings even just a little. They don’t have to sign a Pujols, Fielder, or Reyes but they could have done SOMETHING! The only way the team has improved is by dumping dead weight. Replace it with something!! I have a strong feeling we are gonna roll through this season fighting for the Wild Card and make a giant splash next offseason when the free agent market is gonna be SUPERB! Keeping my fingers crossed that I am right!!!!!!!
Skeezix
January 19th, 2012
6:37 pm
Braves fans: Remember the “Letter”!!!!
Gene
January 19th, 2012
6:38 pm
Wren has made far too many bad decisions and only a few good ones. So maybe not making trades is a good thing, since he tends to trade good players for bad ones.
@___ISH___
January 19th, 2012
6:39 pm
Wren gets credit for doing nothing.. I need a job like that.
Athenzdawg
January 19th, 2012
6:46 pm
yay another season where the wildcard is the best!
jed
January 19th, 2012
6:48 pm
i’m with wren on the lack of activity in general. hated the idea of losing JJ and prado. i’m not sure at all about giving SS to pastornicky. sounds to me like he could use another year in the minors. but jack wilson is perfect insurance there. great defense, and he wont kill rallies like AGON, who couldnt advance a runner to save his life. have we re-signed matt diaz? i’m all for sticking with heyward, but it wouldnt hurt to have diaz as a platoon option if we need it. heyward hit .194 vs lefties last year.
curtisjones
January 19th, 2012
6:54 pm
I’m usually the biggest Mark Bradley fan on the board. But this reeks of smiley-face journalism. Maybe my memory is longer than some, but September 2011 was no fluke. The bullpen was exhausted, Uggla’s one month of big-league hitting was long-gone, McCann was into his annual out-of-shape late-season swoon, Chipper was crippled (again), the outfield had zero pop, and oddly enough the only player who had much of a pulse was Alex Gonzales, who sucked from April-August.
IF the Braves are betting on a much of IF’s, (Chipper finds the Fountain of Youth, McCann becomes a six-month player, Uggla hits an occasional HR in a meaningful game with a runner on base, Heyward learns to hit and throw with accuracy, Pastornicky can make fewer than 30 errors…)it’s going to be a long season.
Right now I’m projecting them 4th, only because the Mets are in seriously bad shape. But the Phils, Marlins and Nats are all as good or better than last year. The Braves are parked in neutral.
chris
January 19th, 2012
6:58 pm
good column mark, I do wish we’d at least gotten Seth Smith from Colorado we really do need a bomber in this lineup…and hearing that Wren is “hoping” players bounce back always makes me nervous..but we’ll see..it is good we didnt gut our farm system or trade away a possible key to 2012 in a knee jerk reaction but on paper this team still does not put any fear into other pitching staffs….we need another Crime Dog who just standing in the batters box made pitchers winch…Hopefully Uggs will return to form and do that himself..we’ll see…
jeffrey d
January 19th, 2012
7:01 pm
Thanks, Mark, and I completely agree. I know keeping it together and not overreacting has never been a strong point for fans on blogs, but the Braves have a good team. Prado and Uggla have historically been good hitters. Not much reason to think last season was more than an aberration (especially when you consider how Prado’s staph infection slowed him down). And pitching depth…I don’t think we have much to worry about there
Heyward’s the key, in my opinion. He’s got to make the adjustments and prove that he can be a perpetual all star and not just a 1 year wonder
Longtimefan
January 19th, 2012
7:01 pm
There is not a team in MLB that does not have unknowns and questions heading into a new season. The mostly negative fans that comment on this blog obviously fixate on the Braves and ignore this fact. They tend to be hyper critical of any free agent signing or trade that doesn’t work out perfectly, ignoring that no GM bats a thousand and virtually all teams have had their share of poor decisions. Jason Bay at 100M anyone? I recall more than a few of the blogging geniuses several years ago calling for Wren to make that deal. Wren is in a much better position to evaluate the Braves talent and what is available than the average blogger. Some of the comments I’ve read are ludicrous such as the one stating we have a shaky bullpen. Before you guys keep ragging on our future HOF third baseman, please do a little research, visit a site than has stats on players and compare his to others. You will be surprised. Exactly who would you get to take the place of his production? Some people just like to bit*h. Nothing is good enough. Major sports record of 14 straight division championships but only one WS title! I’ll bet a couple dozen sports towns would love to have that problem. I agree with Wren. I like fielding this team in Spring training and I like our chances. I’ve been following the Braves since 1966 and I’ve seen some awful teams. This definitely is not one of them. Not even close.
Mark Bradley
January 19th, 2012
7:10 pm
Maybe it’s me, but I didn’t see Seth Smith as any kind of answer.
jed
January 19th, 2012
7:10 pm
mark, any thoughts on pastornicky?
ramblingbuzz
January 19th, 2012
7:11 pm
This is the same columnist who annually awards the Dawgs the national championship before the season ever begins. Now he applauds the Braves for sitting on a lineup that can’t hit and whose pitching depends on guys having great years after recovering from injuries. He is after blog hits not accurate journalism.
bulldogbubba
January 19th, 2012
7:12 pm
Where is Mr Clusters?What are his thoughts?We want to know!
jeffrey d
January 19th, 2012
7:22 pm
He is after blog hits not accurate journalism.
And yet you continue to read and complain. You know what I do if I don’t like something? I stay away.
JoeFan
January 19th, 2012
7:33 pm
If, If, If….Wren is wishing and hoping that everyone bounces back and the Braves have few injuries. This team is full of holes and question marks. Wren can spin it all he wants but in the end he his responsible for the product on the field.
falconsrus
January 19th, 2012
7:37 pm
trade shurholtze for a bunting coach and were all set
go-BRAVOS
January 19th, 2012
7:43 pm
If’s and hope’s win you nothing. This team was only bad for 1 month? Was that a joke? The offense was terrible nearly the whole season, not just 1 month. The pitching will break down again this year, JJ and Hanson have been hurt the past 2 years. Chipper’s numbers will be down as well.
We just have to hope and pray that everyone stays healthy all year and as Fredi would say, they put of the numbers on the back of their baseball card, which we all know is all you can hope for.
kral
January 19th, 2012
7:48 pm
any trade made is an iffy situation..please keep Prado ..he is my favorite…and chances are he will hit 300 with12 hr …I think that is a better iffy
jed
January 19th, 2012
7:56 pm
well, my concern with pastornicky is this: if he’s an average SS, or worse (as i’ve read), we’re not exactly gonna have a sterling defensive infield. uggla, at his best, is an average defender, and chipper’s 40. i dont know enough about pastornicky to say, but this is the one thing about wren’s offseason that’s troubling.
BravesfaninWis
January 19th, 2012
7:59 pm
Screw Frank Wren…..
After that collapse, all he has done is traded away Derek Lowe and Resign Jack f’n Wilson…
So here is what the Braves have to look forward to going into next season.
1. Can Heyward bounce back and have a good season?
2. Can Uggla come out of the gate strong and get the Braves a few more wins?
3. How many games is Chipper and his 15 mil price tag good for?
4. Will Jurrgens knee hold up?
5. Will Hanson’s shoulder hold up?
6. Will Hudson’s back hold up?
7. Will Breachy ever be able to consistently pitch past the 5th inning?
8. Will Pastornicky amount to anything?
9. Will the bullpen get overused again?
10. Will Prado still be here, and if so will he bounce back?
I don’t know about the rest of you, but IMO, Frank Wren dropped the ball big time by not addressing some needs for the Braves. If anything, this team is weaker than the team that collapsed last Sept. When you replace a defensive guy like Gonzalez with a unproven rookie, and also add some younger guys to the bullpen and rotation, you have to look at it as a step back.
Will the Braves be better with having Bourn the entire season? That remains to be seen, but I certainly hope so. Truth is, the Braves have so many question marks surrounding their team right now, that its very hard to be optimistic about their chances next season when all the teams in their own division have gotten stronger. How can you fight for a WC spot when you are not even the 3rd best team in your own division. Pretty pathetic to say the least, Frank Wren should be happy if he sells out 1 game all season long. The common folks don’t want to spend their hard earned money watching a 3rd or 4th place team in the division. At least I won’t.
BehindEnemyLines
January 19th, 2012
8:03 pm
“if you liked the Braves’ chances heading into last season you should like them again now.”
And since I didn’t like them then, presumably it’s okay that I think even less of them now.
The biggest question is which comes first: the first 3-4 week injury absence of Brittle Jones at third or news that Jair has managed to get hurt again.
The Bourn re-signing looks like Wren’s stopped-clock moment for the off-season.
Yeah, Rah, Mediocre!
January 19th, 2012
8:10 pm
“Wren: “People have to bounce back. [Some guys] have a lot to prove.”
Yeah Wren, talk is cheap. Two days after the season you said JHey would have to earn his spot this year. Only trouble is…… you’ve done absolutely nothing about getting an OFer in camp to compete for JHey’s or ANY outfield job!
“If everyone bounces back, we’ve got a good ballclub,” Wren said. “We don’t have a major need.”
The Braves have major needs. The team had a historic meltdown. A failure like that indicates there are deep-rooted issues in the organization, either management or on field talent. To make no moves is the same as whistling past the graveyard and swearing you “ain’t skeerd!” Insanity is to send the same group out there and expect a different result. Top that all off with the fact every team in the NL East, with the exception of the Braves and Mets, have bettered themselves over the Winter.
Sorry Bradley….unlike you, I’m not ready to throw a ticker-tape parade for Wren because he is sitting on his hands in the off season.
BillW
January 19th, 2012
8:11 pm
Mark you can salute all you wish but not me. We still don’t have a good offense to go with pitching. Thats not just my take but writers from MLB, ESPN & Fox sports. Braves need another solid power hitter in LF. Braves bench sucks. It don’t surprise me you taking up for Braves, don’t all AJC writers. The plus is Greg Walker hired as hitting coach.
Oh well nothing new~~Go Braves and wait till next year.
BillW
January 19th, 2012
8:14 pm
I’m beginning to lose respect for what you see Mark…
jeffrey d
January 19th, 2012
8:14 pm
And since I didn’t like them then, presumably it’s okay that I think even less of them now.
Why? Last season the Braves started off with Lowe, McLouth, and Proctor on the team. This season they have none of those, but they do have Bourn and a plethora of Major League ready pitching.
Yeah, Rah, Mediocre!
January 19th, 2012
8:19 pm
“if you liked the Braves’ chances heading into last season you should like them again now.”
What an idiotic statement that is. The Nats didn’t stand still after the season. The Marlins didn’t stand still after the season. The Phils didn’t stand still after the season. The Braves of 2012 are going to be battling in a division that is much improved over 2011 while doing nothing to improve their lot.
Yeah, Rah, Mediocre!
January 19th, 2012
8:25 pm
“Why? Last season the Braves started off with Lowe, McLouth, and Proctor on the team.”
Addition by subtraction seldom pays dividends in MLB. Seems I remember Bourn being on the team when they tanked down the stretch in September so it’s not exactly like he wasn’t a Brave when they sucked.
Larry
January 19th, 2012
8:29 pm
Mark,
And not a single word about the manager? Hello!
A true, bona fide, Major League Manager holds that team together last September.
braves sit still
January 19th, 2012
8:30 pm
Other teams in our division improve. Braves don’t. I see us as a 3rd or 4th place finisher in our division. I hope it doesn’t get so bad that I go to watch the other teams play. I guess the good news is we have young pitching, so maybe next year,or the next, when they are a little more experienced and maybe we can add another bat, we might be able to compete. We’ll have some more money when Chipper finally hangs them up. I guess I can’t blame the guy, where else can you make $13M and work 120 games. I’m just complaining, so don’t bother responding. I feel better now. ha.
tulsabravo
January 19th, 2012
8:38 pm
Wren’s a bum. The Braves will be much better off when he’s gone.
Mister Frisky
January 19th, 2012
8:40 pm
Money to spend at the dead line?This team will be selling off by Memorial Day.Might as well bring up Terd now.The name fits for what this team is.
jeffrey d
January 19th, 2012
8:41 pm
All right, I can see we’re busy wallowing here. Carry on, everybody
Erk Russell's Dog
January 19th, 2012
8:42 pm
@MB
I can’t believe you have to go back to the Len Barker trade to try and make your point about over-reacting .How about the trade with T
Dennis Reynolds
January 19th, 2012
8:46 pm
I’ll go to the Caravan just to tell Wren he’s doing a great job.
Can't wait to plan........
January 19th, 2012
8:47 pm
I absolutely cannot wait for the day to plan for the fact that I don’t have to look at that stupid redneck grin on Gimper Jones face at third base…….the fact that he is a future HOF’er does not mean a thing to me because he is so 10 years ago – a has been – a washed up disabled trying to be player…..wish he had the best interest of the team at heart and would go ahead and leave and give up the money due him so we could get somebody worth a crap at third base…….
marseilles mutt
January 19th, 2012
8:48 pm
“…gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em….know when to walk away, know when to run…”
You ‘experts’ don’t like the Brave’s IF’s, huh? But all the improvements the Fills, Fish and Politicos made are ‘guaranteed’- or as one of you schmucks said, “Take it to the bank” winners, right? Bunch of freaking idiots! The deck cuts both ways!
You seem to forget that this ’sorry’ line up (hand) was even in a position to have a collapse. How the hell didTHAT happen? …without a couple of front line pitchers, Uggla being either out, or just plain Ugh, Heyward non-existent, and they were STILL locks, barring a complete collapse of cinching the WC…but collapse they did, or fold if you will.
Pitching wins and the Braves still have a lot of blue chips in that stack, and regardless of other teams improvements, still have probably the most depth of starters – not all experienced mind you, but starters and potential starters- in the entire major league. The bull pen is better than it was at the outset of last season, and we have freed up a few bucks….and the game hasn’t even begun yet and the majority of you dorks are throwing in the towel.
We did very well last year with but a few chips and next to nothing. We’ve increased our ‘bank’, while everyone else spent, and may have to draw light during the season, when it really counts. It’s a long game and the dealing for this round hasn’t even begun.
“….there’s time enough for counting when the dealin’s done!”
Give ‘em a chance before for you cash in…and give FW credit for holding them now and for the cards he drew last year.
Mister Frisky
January 19th, 2012
8:52 pm
Hey Mutt,Just like hold em at the end of the day you got to have the nuts.Too bad for us Fat Frankie is a unick.
Erk Russell's Dog
January 19th, 2012
8:53 pm
@MB
I can’t believe you went all the way back to the Len Barker trade to make your point about the Braves over-reacting and making a terrible trade. How about more recent history, Escobar for A. Gonzalez,Francouer for some Met no one remembers and the topper the Texas trade,Undo any of the three and the Braves would have one less hole to fill,or maybe no holes to fill if they did not over reach in the Texeira trade. But I don’t know which trade hurt the Braves more the Barker trade(1981 to1991 no playoffs)or the Texas trade one playoff appearance in the last 7 years.
afan
January 19th, 2012
8:54 pm
funny mutt
Laughing out Loud
January 19th, 2012
8:55 pm
Braves are damned for being owned by a corporation with no personal, visable owner to show interest. The Falcons are damned because Art Blank shows personbal interest, comes down on the sideline to encourage the coaches and players. Some of you haters are the same bums calling out the Braves and the Falcons…Go figure…That’s why I laugh out loud at you would be fans! Amusing!
afan
January 19th, 2012
9:01 pm
Falcons are not damned by Blank..Blank needs to buy the damn Braves and clean house.
Skeezix
January 19th, 2012
9:21 pm
There is no logic to “giving Wren credit for not overreacting”.
It is false praise – in fact it is counter productive; silly.
Am I going to get credit for not kicking the dog today?
Or, how about giving me credit for not driving drunk today?
marseilles mutt
January 19th, 2012
9:31 pm
Yo, Skeezix- Reporting you to the ASPCA for beating your dog yesterday, and was it yesterday or the day b/4 you drove drunk?
Want to try that analogy again?
I’m sorry, I just couldn’t resist….it’s 4o above up here and not a lot to do…
BosnianBaller
January 19th, 2012
9:32 pm
Can you ask Fredi why he tried to be like Bobby Cox by sticking to Lowe and other crappy players when they struggled the whole season. I much rather see him be himself than try to be like Bobby.
Steve
January 19th, 2012
9:33 pm
Frank Wren’s teams have been to the playoffs one time. ONCE. After this season, JS will send a second letter. Maybe he will announce the hiring of a new GM.