It’s time for the Falcons to win a playoff game, and they will
Will the rookie Julio Jones make a difference in January? (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
It’s time to do this. It’s time to win a playoff game before this “Mike Smith/Matt Ryan-can’t-win-a-playoff-game” takes real root. (And it hasn’t yet. Two examples do not a representative sample make.) It’s time for the Falcons to win a playoff game because there’s no reason they shouldn’t.
Who thinks so? Well, here was general manager Thomas Dimitroff, speaking after Thursday’s practice: “Our expectations going into this year were for more than just getting the playoffs. Does that answer you?”
The Falcons didn’t have quite the regular season we or they expected, but they’re here now, in essentially the same position as the Packers were a year ago. The Giants are favored, but only by a field goal, which is the standard home-field allotment. The Falcons had the better record. They’d also seem to have more good players — do you see a Michael Turner on the Giants? A Tony Gonzalez? Anything approaching the combination of Roddy White and Julio Jones? — and the numbers second the emotion.
Total defense: The Falcons ranked 12th against the Giants’ 27th.
Passing defense: 20th against 29th.
Rushing defense: 6th against 19th.
Rushing offense: 17th against 32nd.
Passing offense: 8th against 5th.
Total offense: 12th against 10th.
The Falcons ranked in the NFL’s upper half using four of the six measures, the Giants in two. In the two categories that saw the Giants lead, the advantage was negligible. In the four categories that saw the Falcons lead, the advantage was significant.
Giants advocates will suggest that their team changed when the pass rusher Osi Umenyiora got semi-healthy toward season’s end, and the defensive line is the one place where the Falcons suffer by comparison. New York’s Jason Pierre-Paul had 16 1/2 sacks; the Falcons as a team managed only 26. If the Giants sack Ryan a half-dozen times, they’ll win. If they don’t … well, that No. 29 ranking in passing yards yielded doesn’t suggest a team steeped in coverage, does it?
And that last-in-the-NFL-in-yards-rushing metric suggests the home team isn’t going to get ahead and run the ball and eat the clock. Eli Manning will have to keep throwing to keep his team moving. Ryan figures to get more help from his backs. If the Falcons can run it even a bit, that front four will have to gear down.
There’s no reason the Falcons shouldn’t win this game. They have the better defense and the more balanced offense. Stem to stern, they have the more talented roster. And it is, to return to our earlier point, time. This team has been together long enough. We’re approaching prove-it-or-lose-it territory.
Said Curtis Lofton, the superb middle linebacker: “It is [time]. We’re not happy just being here. The ultimate goal is to win the Super Bowl.”
Can this team win the Super Bowl?
Lofton: “I think we can. We’ve got enough talent in here.”
In 2008, when the up-from-misery Falcons went to Arizona and were undone by the 9-7 Cardinals, that team wasn’t ready yet. Last year the Falcons should have been, but one awful Saturday night — the 48-21 loss to the sixth-seeded Packers — all but overrode a 13-3 regular season. But the Falcons went to school on that rout, same as they had on the Arizona loss, and they traded up to draft the rookie Jones, who has made a difference the past month. Just on talent, this team is better than last season’s.
That said, the repeated failures against playoff-caliber opponents — swept by the Saints, beaten at home again by the Packers, beaten on the road by the Texans’ No. 3 quarterback — leaves cause for doubt: Why can’t players this good win big games? And that’s a question that will stay attached to these Falcons until they prove otherwise.
They’re ready to prove otherwise. Some thought the Packers’ victory over Detroit last week did the Falcons a huge service by sending them to New Jersey, as opposed to New Orleans yet again. “I kind of hoped we’d go back to New Orleans,” Lofton said, “especially with the way they did us.”
He meant the Saints letting Drew Brees throw at the end of a rout to break Dan Marino’s yardage record. If anything, that nationally televised indignity rekindled a flame that might otherwise have been doused. The Falcons lost by 29 points to their nemesis, and by rights that should have damaged their self-esteem. But the way the New Orleans game ended only poked at their pride.
The Falcons left New Orleans mad, and they played mad against Tampa Bay last week, and they’ll arrive at the Meadowlands angry enough to do real damage not just in this game but deeper into January. They’ll win Sunday because it’s time for them to win, and before they’re done they might well see New Orleans again.
By Mark Bradley
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359 comments Add your comment
George Stein
January 6th, 2012
12:43 pm
Tell us all what is correct about the article, dc74. We’re all ears.
falconfan 24-7
January 6th, 2012
12:45 pm
Sorry teams don’t make the playoffs.20 teams will be home on the outside looking in. Go figure, knuckleheads and get a life.
George Stein
January 6th, 2012
12:45 pm
Stats definitively do not tell win games (people do), but they shed an awful lot of light on who will or who has.
falconfan 24-7
January 6th, 2012
12:50 pm
Samantha,
Clearly, you are clueless on the sport of football. Are you a woman or something else? You sound like an unhappy old hag, getting joy from others misfortune. Grow up troll, disappear or get a life and a job if need be.
Getaway
January 6th, 2012
12:52 pm
I’m not going to bag too much on the Giants cause they are a good team. I want the Falcons to beat good teams. Beating a good Giants team gives them confidence going into the Packers game.
Chris
January 6th, 2012
12:54 pm
The Giants have nothing approaching Roddy White and Julio Jones????? Are you honestly writing that Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are much more formidable than that duo who one leads the league in drops and the latter can’t stay on the field. This is another example of Atlanta sports having the pom poms out only to be disappointed by the weak fair weather fan base and teams
P B Orr
January 6th, 2012
12:55 pm
The Falcons, I hope, understand the it’s Pierre-Paul on whom the Giants’ fate depends. They need to have designed rollouts away from him, and good trap blocking. Designed sweeps for Turner would be good. They CANNOT win by pounding the middle and hoping to maintain a pocket around Ryan.
Falcons4Eva
January 6th, 2012
1:01 pm
Mark –
“Two examples do not a representative sample make” in regards to the Falcons failure to win a playoff game.
While this is true…what would be a representative sample? Three? Four? What I’d say is look at other combos who’ve gotten it done already in the same time period as Smith and Ryan. (Sean Payton/Drew Brees. Look at Jim Harbaugh/Joe Flacco. Look at Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez.)
Point being…this team has had the talent to get the job done sooner, but hasn’t. They’ve been together 4 years right? In my book, that’s 0 for 4 for playoffs wins. Not getting to the playoff is just as bad as not winning one…
Just my 2 cents.
Falcon
January 6th, 2012
1:03 pm
Falcon may lose in the play off since they don’t have the passing offense. Giants win!
Typical Football Fan
January 6th, 2012
1:08 pm
Let’s hope the Falcons don’t choke like the Dawgs and Jackets.
Atlanta Native
January 6th, 2012
1:08 pm
Samantha and Pamela sound a lot like SeenThisB4. I thought his momma spanked his little butt and sent him to his room without dinner again.
relocated dawg
January 6th, 2012
1:13 pm
i agree with the espn article, and have been saying so for years. i would like to think the economy shares some blame, but let’s be honest our fan support wasn’t great before the economy tanked.
Marie
January 6th, 2012
1:16 pm
Mark, hope is a beautiful thing but hope does not win games. All of your stats mean absolutely nothing because like the Green Bay Packers last year and the NY Jets the year before, the NY Giants have been in a playoff mindset for the past 2 weeks. That is they knew they were 1 and done if they did not win those last two games. And teams entering the playoffs with that mindset can be dangerous.
Your stats measure the team’s performance over the life of the season. Sorry but the Giants offense and defense should be measured over the last 2 weeks when the team has gotten healthier and key players have returned to the lineup. And with more of their starting lineup in place their running offense and defense has improved tremendously.
Finally, I cannot overlook the fact that the only team the Falcons beat that made the playoff was Detroit. They have struggled all season against good quarterbacks and Eli is having probably his best season since entering the league. Coupled that with the fact that they are 4-4 on the road while the Giants are 5-3 at home (I know the official record will say 4-4 at home for the Giants but the game against the Jets was a home game for both teams).
Not saying the Falcons won’t win this game, but, I just don’t give them the odds you’re willing to. I think the NFC home teams will prevail this weekend but both AFC home teams (Denver and Houston) will be one and done.
JSS
January 6th, 2012
1:18 pm
Like I said on the Schultz’s blog, they made sideways moves. Julio Jones is a tremendous talent; but the reason that couldn’t go blow-for-blow with the Packers last January 15th was not because of the missing deep threat. No one railed against that “ham handed” Michael Jenkins more than me. I keep saying it: “this team will not advance until they get a set of lines that are not a product filled with second hand goods.” The replacement of Baker is just a tourniquet on a gapping wound. You guys are infatuated with the myth of Harvey Dahl. He was getting beat just like Reynolds and Hawley have been this season by the last quarter of the previous season. The mythic “long pass” is stil being searched for, and they’ve yet to show they can go “blow-for-blow” with any of the top-tier teams.
I will this again clearly for the ones who are new and keep trying to jump in this and make it into something else. The other ones have staked out a position and are going down with the ship like that is a noble thing. If you want to win with Matt Ryan, you change the physical complexion of this team. They must have two stout lines. They have to be able to stop being beat over the top in the defensive secondary. They must create a stable O-line, McClure’s time has passed. Get two guards that are actually truly capable. I’m not going to address the tackles because cap wise, you can’t have it all. WIth this QB (and current line), you are not going to beat people over the top with the regularity that most under illusion they can. You do have receivers capable of yards after the catch. Adjust and scheme accordingly, stop trying to be something that they are not. The person that truly understands strengths and weaknesses can see the numbers, adjust the philosophy…
Hollywould
January 6th, 2012
1:18 pm
falcon4eva, try to catch up ok. With this being the 4th season of Smith/Ryan and the playoffs not yet here it is kinda tough to be 0-4. Also, the year before Smith came The Dog Killa was in jail, the cowardly coach hauled butt in the middle of the night and season. I am damn happy to have Smith/Ryan considering the crap we had been put through.
Falcon Jim
January 6th, 2012
1:19 pm
Samantha
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
………………LOSER ! ! ! ! !
JDawg1785
January 6th, 2012
1:23 pm
Time to rise up in a major way. Go Falcons!
BoneKollector
January 6th, 2012
1:23 pm
Not the Bradley Jinx
Hollywould
January 6th, 2012
1:25 pm
falcon4eva, Try to keep up ok? This is only the 4th year for Smith/Ryan together. Kinda makes your 2 cents worth nothing. Let’s see, the year before Smith came the DOG KILLA was in jail, The COWARD coach hauled butt in the middle of the night and season, and yet in 4 years we are in the playoffs 3 times. Might get ot 0-4 but right now 0for 3. I am damn happy to have this coach and qb for what they have done in 4 years.
Darius
January 6th, 2012
1:28 pm
The ESPN article is spot on. And all you people native and transplants know it!! Which begs the question, why the Hell build an outside stadium for the Falcons? Wasn’t the whole point of the Dome to get people to come to the game in the heat, rain, and cold. Atlanta fans ARE NOT going to a football game outside in big numbers. DUH!!!
Blueland Buddha
January 6th, 2012
1:29 pm
The only stats to focus on for this game will be the effectiveness of the Giants pass rush. If the Giants front four get to Ryan, the Giants win. Both teams can score and the rank of the Giants rushing attack doesn’t matter. They have been a ‘pass first’ team all year, with a good degree of success. If Ryan has the time to pick the Giants secondary and linebackers apart (by far, the Giants big weakness), Atlanta wins. Otherwise, the Giants win.
72 Million Bust
January 6th, 2012
1:29 pm
Peyton Manning met with Art Blanks
dcb
January 6th, 2012
1:32 pm
Love the Falcons, Bradley, but disagree with you on this one. Forget the stats other than the home advantage the Giants have. I hope I’m wrong – but the Giants are peaking and have most of their injured big names back. Add that to the more difficult schedule the Giants had this year and you get a tough game for our Falcons. It’ll be decided early – and probably on the basis of a couple of great touchdown grabs. Ryan could have a real ugly day. But one thing is for sure – screw your stats advantage. Glad to see your support, though.
budd
January 6th, 2012
1:37 pm
Bradley,
Thanks for assuring a win for my New York Giants in the playoff game. As usual, your choice will be the kiss of death for the sparrows
RMW
January 6th, 2012
1:42 pm
The Falcons may win, but I’ll dispute that the Giants don’t have “anything approaching” Julio Jones and Roddy White. Nicks and Cruz have better numbers, and the Falcons played 10 games in a dome this year inflating the numbers they did put up.
bruce mac
January 6th, 2012
1:49 pm
Great Bradley, don’t you also want to give us that math again explaining how all the Braves have to do is go 500 and then the Cardinals can’t win the wild card. Go ahead and jinx all our teams. I have a new nickname for you MB, how about Mark Barton instead of Bradley.
volquest
January 6th, 2012
1:50 pm
Stop smoking dope,,,, would love to see the birds win but it ain’t going to happen this year,,,
take it from me.
January 6th, 2012
1:54 pm
the key to this game will be can we stop the run?or can we put pressure on manning?and will grimes be ready to play at a hight level after coming back from a knee injury?and do we have anybody with enough speed to cover Cruze?
Orlando
January 6th, 2012
1:55 pm
If we still had Vick, we would have home field advantage and that reporter would not have wrote the article on the city of Atlanta and the worse fans in America…. BRING BACK VICK!!!!! #7 all the way
Field Goal Smitty!
January 6th, 2012
1:56 pm
Mike, listen up, please. Foeld goals won’t, will not, can’t cut it in this game. Find a way to score touchdowns and you will win. Fail to get 6’s and settle for 3’s will send you home, left wanting!! Google the Eagles game a couple of years back in Atl…heck before the game started a fight broke out at mid-field…we need THAT kind of attitude for this game. Heck boy’s, if you see you are going to get jobbed by the refs, go ahead and do the crime with results that make be beneficial to you in the end. McKay, please stand up for this team and get Goodell of our darn backs!
Chris
January 6th, 2012
2:07 pm
Uh Oh… The Kiss of Death….
Samuel
January 6th, 2012
2:08 pm
I know the Falcons have talent and they have build a solid organization. Being that said, we as Falcon fans want them to win this game, so we can move on. All that talk about you can’t win a playoff game will be over. Next will be they can’t go deep into the playoffs….
DawginLex
January 6th, 2012
2:12 pm
Giants 27
Falcons 24
Eli leads Giants to game winning FG drive with .03 left.
Sorry Mark, but this bunch will not win anything this Sunday.
Hope I am wrong
ijonathan
January 6th, 2012
2:13 pm
@JSS, nice summary at 1:18. Pretty much spot on. Any personnel focus other than the lines over the next 1-2 years will represent a collosal strategic failure.
take it from me.
January 6th, 2012
2:13 pm
Manning has bad days,and when he has bad days they are really bad,lets hope sunday is one of those days! Go Falcons
bruce mac
January 6th, 2012
2:14 pm
So Orlando, other than sell out every game, which the Falcons do, what more do you want? You are as dumb as the NY reporter.
ijonathan
January 6th, 2012
2:15 pm
Orlando, let’s see how Vick does leading the Eagles into their playoff game this year at home.
what? really? Oh…
ijonathan
January 6th, 2012
2:18 pm
Orlando — I could be wrong here, but I think the Eagles attendance at their home playoff game(s) this year will be around zero.
Fans in Other Cities Don't Go Cheer For Atlanta Players
January 6th, 2012
2:18 pm
Go to a Hawks, Falcons, and Braves game, against big foes (Boston, NY, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Miami Heat, etc.), and you’ll see more of their fans there than our fans.
YOU DO NOT SEE THAT TYPE OF FAN BEHAVIOR FROM THEIR FANS AT THOSE GAMES.
I’m 45 years old and, frankly, our fanbase is brutal. The truth is the truth.
BTW – It’s terribly hot and humid here. Fact.
bobby
January 6th, 2012
2:18 pm
Mr.Bradley the falcons are not going to beat the giants.
1 the falcons offensive line is not good enough to block the giants defensive line
2 the falcons db’s are not going to stop the giants receivers.
3 the game is in new york outdoors and it’s a strong chance it might be cold.
take it from me.
January 6th, 2012
2:19 pm
Dawginlex- You must have us mixed up with The Dawgs,and MS!
ijonathan
January 6th, 2012
2:19 pm
@JSS, regarding your quarterback ranking (forget which blog it was on) what has Matt Schaub done to cuase you to fall in love with him?
bruce mac
January 6th, 2012
2:21 pm
I have been going to Falcons and Braves games for 50 years and have never ever seen more of opposing fans there than our fans. I have been to games involving every team you mention on many many occasions. You sir are an idiot of the tallest order.
Fred
January 6th, 2012
2:25 pm
Mark Bradley
January 6th, 2012
11:46 am
For Rickster:
http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2011/12/30/its-a-miracle-mr-wrong-actually-got-some-things-right-in-2011/
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
LOL I’m glad I actually read some of the posts before I commented, especially Rickster’s and the one from MB I quoted. I was just about to say the exact same thing Rickster said, IE: ‘Thanks for the kiss of death Bradley.”
But apparently the Bradley curse has worn off. Or at least we can hope. But if the Falcons lose, I’m blaming Bradley.
PreyDawg
January 6th, 2012
2:25 pm
@ P B Orr- I kind of like your idea about rolling away from Pierre. But what I don’t like about it is cutting the field in half. Don’t we limit our receivers to a small section of the field when we do that? I think our receivers can get open and open fast against this back end. We might not need to roll.
Yo Vince
January 6th, 2012
2:25 pm
JSS, I actually agree with most of that. You are still a Tool.
anonymous
January 6th, 2012
2:28 pm
This sounds so much like the UGA mantra: “We should win because we have BETTER PLAYERS!”
I’ll come back on Monday and write why I knew these Falcons would get throttled in New York.
anon
Cecil34
January 6th, 2012
2:29 pm
You said UGA would win their bowl game also……
ijonathan
January 6th, 2012
2:32 pm
Falcons O-line + Giants D-line + Matt Ryan + Outdoors + 40 degress + rollouts = LOSS
BulldogBen
January 6th, 2012
2:33 pm
Blah, blah, blah. We’ve heard this for years now. Heck, we heard it before the New Orleans game. Roddy: “we’re going to win this game”.
If the Falcons were on trial I’d say they’re guilty until proven innocent.
If they don’t win this game, SOMETHING has to be done. Not talking wholesale change but SOMETHING. Even if they do, does anyone truly think this team can reach a Super Bowl??