It’s a miracle! Mr. Wrong actually got some things right in 2011
Yay, me! (AJC photo by Ben Gray; whiteboard stylings by Ms. Mandi Albright.)
This year ends in a way few years have ended for this famously erring prognosticator. It ends with me getting to say, “Know what? I actually got some stuff right.”
For once, the annual Accountability Scoreboard isn’t a tale of woe. I picked Georgia to go 10-2 and win the SEC East, which it did. I picked Georgia Tech to finish its regular season 8-4, which it did. I picked LSU to win the SEC, which it did, and finish as the BCS titlist, which it well might. I picked Auburn, which won the last BCS title, to lose five games, and sure enough …
I picked the Hawks to beat the Magic in Round 1, which indeed occurred. Heck, I even picked VCU to crash the Final Four. (OK, now I’m embellishing.)
About the only thing I got close to right in 2010 was picking the Falcons to go 12-4 and win the NFC South. (They actually went 13-3.) This time I was right, sort of, in the grand scheme — I picked the 2011 team to grab a wild card — but had it going 12-4, and the best it can do is 10-6. I even managed to whiff on the outcome of the season’s first five games, which was pretty bad even by my tepid standards. So I’m thinking this probably isn’t the moment to note that I’ve also projected this team to win at least one playoff game.
I also tabbed the Braves as a wild-card team. (I know picking the local club as a wild card is kind of a waffle, but seriously … did anyone think the Braves could trump the Phillies over 162 games?) But I also guessed, way back when, that 91 wins would be the ceiling for the 2011 Braves, and lo and behold they got stuck on 89.
That said … did I see the epic collapse coming? Absolutely not. Even with three games to go, I thought the Braves would make the playoffs. Even with three outs to go in Game No. 162, I still thought they’d qualify. Sometimes I’m hard-headed. This was such a time.
I picked the Hawks over the Magic not because I loved the Hawks, but because I thought Orlando was running on fumes. After Kirk Hinrich was hurt in the Round 1 clincher, I suggested the Hawks would do well to take one game from Chicago in Round 2. They actually took the first game, and also the fourth.
I was 0-for-4 in picking the 2011 Final Four, having gone with Ohio State to win it all. (The Buckeyes were upset by Kentucky in the Sweet 16. Shouldn’t I have learned that the Big Ten can’t handle the SEC in postseason? Or is that just in football?) I also had Georgia toppling North Carolina in the Big Dance, which the Bulldogs might well have done — had they managed to beat Washington in their tournament opener. But I overrated UGA all season, even to the point of thinking it might win the SEC East.
I did, however, have Brian Gregory on my original short list of candidates to replace Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech. Though, in the sake of full disclosure, I must mention that I’d relegated BG to being “a fallback choice” by the time the search commenced. And I believed Tech’s Iman Shumpert had erred by staying in the NBA draft, thinking he might not get picked at all. (He wound going to the Knicks with the 17th pick of Round 1.)
Back to college football: I missed by saying that Nebraska would win the Big Ten, that Florida State would win the ACC, that Stanford would win the Pac-12 and that Andrew Luck would take the Heisman. I was pretty close on Tennessee going 6-6 (it went 5-7) and Florida going 7-5 (it went 6-6). I was right in saying South Carolina would finish 10-2, wrong in saying it would lose the SEC East to Georgia on a tiebreaker. (It lost straight-up.)
I was right in believing LSU would beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, wrong in believing the Tigers would lose to Mississippi State in Starkville, wrong in choosing Oklahoma as LSU’s BCS opponent. I did have Virginia Tech winning the ACC Coastal, but I also had Southern Cal going 7-5, and it went 10-2. (Lane Kiffin, genius boy!)
I was right about three of Tech’s four losses. (I had the Jackets losing at North Carolina State and winning at Virginia.) I was wrong on both of Georgia’s losses. (I had the Bulldogs beating Boise State and South Carolina, but losing to Mississippi State and Florida. Yes, I bought the Dan Mullen hype.) I was way wrong about Georgia State: I had the Panthers going 8-3, as opposed to 3-8.
Yes, I know. That’s a lot of being wrong for what I’m claiming as a pretty good year. But viewed alongside my bleak 2010, I feel entitled to strut a bit. And to offer this one long-range prediction:
In 2012 Georgia will go 11-1 in the regular season and will win the SEC championship.
By Mark Bradley
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208 comments Add your comment
Falcons4Eva
December 30th, 2011
12:48 pm
Welcome Back Mark ! !
What’s happening to my post?
Anyway, your mea culpa about your predictions proves you’re a stand up fellow. You didn’t do bad at all on the predictions. I enjoyed reading what you predicted and your scorecard results.
If I could ask you to give us your take on that disaster that was Monday night football. Do you think there will be a repeat performance by both team?
Falcons4Eva
December 30th, 2011
12:49 pm
Enter your comments here
Happy2012
December 30th, 2011
12:49 pm
For those yapping about Georgia’s easy schedule for 2012, let’s review their schedule the last time they won a national title in 1980. They didn’t exactly roll through a bunch of juggernauts then either. But, that’s usually the rule. You usually need an easier schedule just to get to the big dance. LSU and Bama are an exception to that this year. They both played tough schedules. Kudos to them for coming through those schedules with such good records.
Tennessee (5-6)
Texas A&M (4-7)
Clemson (6-5)
TCU (1-10)
Ole Miss (3-8)
Vanderbilt (2-9)
Kentucky (3-8)
South Carolina (8-4)
Florida (8-4)
Auburn (5-6)
Ga. Tech (1-9)
Notre Dame (9-2-1)
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
12:52 pm
If the Falcons play the Saints a third time Falcons4Eva, I would rather be the team that just lost by 29 points. I know that sounds stupid.
Buzz
December 30th, 2011
12:53 pm
Maybe George dragging u down is his version of pot meeting kettle?
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
12:54 pm
Will?, the Braves led the Cardinals by a game with three to go. Also with two to go. At that late date, it’s usually preferable to be ahead. Usually.
Driver 8
December 30th, 2011
12:56 pm
I understand your logic and if we weren’t talking about the Falcons, I’d be tempted to agree. All things considered, I’d rather be the Saints.
DC
December 30th, 2011
1:01 pm
You can’t compare 1980 to the new BCS era..you just can’t…You have to have quality wins vs quality opps…I’ll say it again if UGA goes 12-1 (wins SEC) I truely believe they my get passed by another conference with that schedule they have…of course this is all relative …SEC east might be good again..but that his highly doubtful..
Herschel Talker
December 30th, 2011
1:02 pm
MB:
Welcome back! We missed ya!
Which team makes up the Dawgs’ one loss in your prediction?
HT
Scott in Huntsville
December 30th, 2011
1:04 pm
Georgia will have too many of it’s players turn pro to go 11-1, although winning the SEC East is still a strong possibility.
The Llama
December 30th, 2011
1:08 pm
I’ll add to the mostly complimentary posts on your work here Mark (is everyone still hitting the egg nog?) Agree or disagree with you, I enjoy reading your stuff. For most of us, sports provides a respite from the everyday world. It’s fun, it’s maddening sometimes, but it takes us away from the next bill that needs to be paid, or the sick relative we have or the next work project we are about to start. Thanks for doing what you do and providing a forum for us to spew about things we have no control over and that don’t really matter in the grand scheme of things. Happy New Year to you and yours.
Cecil34
December 30th, 2011
1:08 pm
You need to lay off that black tar heroin, Mark – 11-1?
Get in rehab, now.
Paul in NH
December 30th, 2011
1:08 pm
Mark – Kudos on giving an end of year review of your picks for the year – and congrats on your prognication record for 2011.
I’d love to see a recap on some of the ESPN talking heads but the ones who pontificate the loudest tend to disappear when the results come out.
Paul in NH
December 30th, 2011
1:11 pm
I seriously doubt that UGA will go 11-1 and win the SEC. They might go 12-1 and win the conference or 11-2 and win the conference but they won’t go 11-1.
Dr. Warren
December 30th, 2011
1:11 pm
I’d say this is a very good defense. The cold hard facts lay bare what I had figured out before myself: MB’s undeserved reputation of wrongness comes from sometimes incorrectly predicting big successes for the home teams in high-profile situations. And don’t underplay the “Bradley’s cursing us!” factor. Frustrated fans do love scapegoats. Regardless of your wins/losses, thanks for an entertaining and enlightening year of blogs, MB. Isn’t that what Aristotle said it was all about anyway?
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
1:11 pm
The idea, Paul in NH, actually came from Stan Kasten many years ago. He was raging about how media types never owned up to their lousy predictions, and I thought, “There’s an idea.”
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
1:12 pm
What I meant, Paul: They’ll go 11-1 in the regular season, and then they’ll win the SEC championship game. I should probably clarify.
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
1:13 pm
Clarified, I hope.
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
1:14 pm
I don’t know, Dr. Warren. If you check the 2010 picks, I was awful. Even I can’t sugarcoat that.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:15 pm
Mark,
i’ll add to the welcome backs. Hope Christmas was nice and you got a chance to visit the fne folks in Maysville, Ky.
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
1:15 pm
Thanks to The Llama for the the kind words. And to everyone for all the words, kind or otherwise.
Happy2012
December 30th, 2011
1:15 pm
Totally agree that it’s a different time and era; however, the gist (jist?) of the argument is still the same. Easier schedule leads to a better record, which leads to a higher ranking. The SEC has built enough of a reputation that, regardless of the out of conference or cross-conference schedule, getting through with an undefeated record will translate into an appearance in the NC game. Just my opinion, of course. Also – I left off the tie on Tech’s record from that year, which was important, because they tied Notre Dame and knocked them off from being #1.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:16 pm
Do we know how many hits the blog received for 2011?
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
1:16 pm
I did go to Maysville, todd. Got back last night. Thanks for remembering.
Paul in NH
December 30th, 2011
1:17 pm
Mark – I was pretty sure what you meant by 11-1 but I just wanted to give you grief.
Back to work – Happy New Year, Bonne Annee, Glückliches neues Jahr
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:18 pm
i think you can get a pass on picking the Braves for a wildcard in ‘11.
not even Nostradamus could have predicted such an epic collapse by the locals.
Paul in NH
December 30th, 2011
1:19 pm
Maysville, KY – gateway to Augusta. Hope you had fun with George.
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
1:19 pm
There was a line in “The Sopranos” where brother-in-law Bobby referred to the hunchback of Nostradamus. I’ve felt that way after some picks.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:20 pm
has Mrs. Bradley fussed at you yet for spending a lot of time on the new ipad?
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
1:20 pm
Did not see George Clooney. Have never seen him in person.
I have, however, met his father. A prince of a man, Nick Clooney.
Mark Bradley
December 30th, 2011
1:22 pm
My wife isn’t a fusser. She’s a saint.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:22 pm
Unless Mr. Wren pulls off something big, I see the Braves sliding down a slope to being a middling team. No reason to think Heyward will bounce back. Has McCann peaked and headed down? JJ and Prado as trade bait. None of it seemingly bodes well for Braves fans.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:23 pm
oh, I figured she HAD to be.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:24 pm
Young pitching I know. But the pitching’s not going to be good enough to win every game 1-0 or 2-1.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:25 pm
Plus the Chipper wildcard. I hope he comes back healthy, but at best he will play 100 games in ‘12.
Jackets 2011
December 30th, 2011
1:27 pm
Now we know u r on drugs. (kidding)
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:27 pm
and Georgia: i’ve been a harsh critic on these pages about Mark Richt. Something you wrote about him rededicating himself to the offense in’11 and cutting loose jetsam like Ealey caught me eye and i think you may be correct.
who would not want such a fine gentleman to succeed?
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:29 pm
Falcons? dont have a lot of interest in them until the playoffs. Hawks? have no interest until they reach the 7th game of the NBA championship series. then mild interest.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:30 pm
Hockey? dont think ATL still has a team.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:31 pm
Tech? will never be able to field a physically competitive football team. Basketball, well they beat Georgia so that shows how bad Georgia is going to be this year.
todd grantham
December 30th, 2011
1:33 pm
that’s pretty much my rundown of the sports situation. i’ll save this and see how i did at the end of ‘12. BTW, Georgia did get pretty lucky with the new SEC schedule. The ole ball coach didn’t fare so well.
ViningsDawg
December 30th, 2011
1:42 pm
iPads are the best. Dawgs win the SEC? You are calling THAT but not the GT loss in the Mexican Mountain Bowl? Come on….
george
December 30th, 2011
1:44 pm
how 2 fish lets look shall we.
boise-loss
usc-beat (the only reason the pups made it to atlanta)
coastal car-win
ole miss-beat
ms st- beat
tn-toss up
vandy-win
fl-beat
nm st-win
tech-toss up
10-2
Now lets see how the pups would have fared with Auburn’s schedule
utah st-win
ms st-beat
clemson-toss up
fl atl-win
usc-lost
ark-loss
fl-beat
lsu-lost
ole miss-win
bama-loss
7-5 or 8-4
I know the truth hurts
St Simons - we're on Island time
December 30th, 2011
1:45 pm
wow, almost 30 years. unreal.
I think your writing gets better every year, Mark.
dam good wildcatdog
crackbaby
December 30th, 2011
1:45 pm
Mark – any thoughts / predictions for the Bucs v. Falcons this Sunday? Not a gimme if you ask me (but nobody will ask LOL).
Disco Pup
December 30th, 2011
1:47 pm
Actually, I really enjoy your column and your predictions, even when they make no sense. Have a great 2012 my friend.
ViningsDawg
December 30th, 2011
1:50 pm
Pats 7-0 since releasing Albert haynesworth, while the Bucs are 0-7 since getting him… Mmmmmm
ViningsDawg
December 30th, 2011
1:50 pm
Pats 7-0 since releasing Albert haynesworth, while the Bucs are 0-7 since getting him… Mmmmmm
how2fish
December 30th, 2011
1:52 pm
@george get help you need it bad, being bitter isn’t good but with that last rant its clear your cheese has slid off the cracker.
george
December 30th, 2011
1:56 pm
how2fish. One very simple question name one game I got wrong?