Is Matt Ryan the NFL’s best? Nope. Is he good enough? Yep
Here we have an actual picture of an icecap. Get it? (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Fair’s fair. If we criticize Matt Ryan for not throwing the best deep ball and for authoring a tepid start to this season — and we have on both counts — we must also say this: The guy’s got it going now. (Maybe not on the deep pass, but on everything else.)
Matt Ryan through the first seven games of 2011: Nine touchdown passes, eight interceptions, a yards-per-pass average of 6.68 and a 79.5 passer rating.
Matt Ryan through the next seven games of 2011: Seventeen touchdown passes, four interceptions, a yards-per-pass average of 7.96 and a 101.5 passer rating.
It’s not as if Ryan is throwing more, or even more accurately. His totals for attempts and completions from those first seven games to the past seven are almost identical. What’s different if the effect. By whatever means — slightly deeper throws, more yards-after-catch — the Falcons have become more pass-productive.
Numbers geeks insist the single most important stat in football is yards per attempt, and through seven games the Falcons’ YPA was pedestrian. Now it meets NFL requirements. Through seven games Ryan hadn’t had much of a season, but he’s having one now. He’s on pace to set personal bests for yardage and touchdowns, and he’s 0.5 off his best seasonal passer rating.
In sum, the chilliness of Matty Ice has yielded to a warming trend. We nitpick the guy to shreds — I’m as guilty as anyone — but in the carping we sometimes miss the bigger picture.
Is Ryan among the NFL’s five best quarterbacks? No. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning comprise a front four unto themselves, and Ben Roethlisberger’s two Super Bowl rings make him No. 5.
Is Ryan among the NFL’s 10 best quarterbacks? Absolutely. Behind the top five, I’d put him in the second tier of four more or less alongside Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco. (Who fills out the top 10? Maybe Tony Romo. Maybe Matt Schaub or Matthew Stafford. Maybe, in a different year, Michael Vick.)
Here are the other salient numbers regarding Ryan — 42-20. That’s the Falcons’ record in games he has started. That’s a winning percentage of .677, and it puts him in high company. Brady and Roethelisberger have won at a higher rate, and so has Rodgers, if barely. (He was 44-21 entering Sunday’s game.) But that .667 beats the great Peyton Manning’s career winning percentage, which is .661.
And here you’re saying: Peyton’s career record was skewed by the 3-13 of his rookie season. That’s true, but Ryan was drafted by a team that had gone 4-12 the year before and was working under a new coach. The 2008 Falcons were a prime candidate to go 3-13, but their new quarterback didn’t let them. The 2008 Falcons went 11-5 instead and made the playoffs, and they haven’t had a losing season under Ryan (or Mike Smith).
In a weird way, Ryan’s rookie season has jaundiced our view. If he was that good that soon, we all wondered, how much better would he be given another couple of years? We’ve gotten our answer: Not all that much better. He was tough and polished from the start, and he’s tough and polished now. His completion percentage is actually slightly lower in Year 4 than in Year 1, and so is his yards-per-attempt. But he’s still winning, and as Smith noted after the Minnesota game: “That’s the only number that matters for a quarterback.”
A few weeks ago Jim Trotter of Sports Illustrated examined the career path of four NFL quarterbacks who had early success — Ryan, Flacco, Mark Sanchez of the Jets and Josh Freeman of the Buccaneers — and wondered if, because they played in sophisticated college offenses, they arrived in the NFL “with less room to grow.” Thomas Dimitroff, the Falcons’ general manager, offered Trotter this rather fascinating quote:
There are some very valid levels below that elite [quarterback] level that can allow organizations to be successful and make runs at Super Bowls. Everyone needs to understand that … They don’t have to necessarily [have] the elite quarterback of the league to be successful as a team.
Some might interpret that as Dimitroff saying the man he drafted with his first pick as GM will never be as good as Rodgers or Brees or Brady or Peyton M., but his greater point was: Does it matter? Eli Manning has won as many Super Bowls as his big brother. Brad Johnson won as many Super Bowls as Brett Favre. The key question to ask of an NFL quarterback: Can this guy win a championship?
The Falcons have Matt Ryan. He might not be the best there is, but he’s plenty good enough. He can win a championship. He’ll win a playoff game, and maybe more than one, next month.
By Mark Bradley
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
389 comments Add your comment
D-Man
December 21st, 2011
7:53 pm
“…and for authoring a tepid start to this season.” Umm, I do believe that was all on that atrocious play by the offensive line the first few games – can’t throw very accurately when the o-line is allowing defenders to tap dance on your quarterback’s THROAT. I do agree with the deep ball issue, but unlike most folks I believe Matt Ryan is smart and dedicated enough to his craft to fix that. Remember the last few years he couldn’t even throw deep now he can, he just gotta fix his aim on those throws. I also agree that we can win without him being the best QB, hell Eli Manning wasn’t the best when the Giants won so if he can, the Iceman can for sure. I don’t care what any of these whinebag haters here say, Ryan is decent enough and this TEAMMMMM will win one eventually…GO FALCONS.
JEM
December 21st, 2011
11:57 pm
AWESOME article, Mr. Bradley.
Red Helmet Swarm
December 22nd, 2011
8:46 am
Hope they let ryan use 2-minute offence especially when defenses having to get back to the line tired. Seems like Ryan is at his best when they got the 2-min.drill runnin’.
Red Helmet Swarm
December 22nd, 2011
8:58 am
I agree (w/JEM)a very well thought of article Mark,kudos back atcha’, you know lately,ryan has been bringing his heart during the game that helps stav off any inability,& rises to the occasion when it’s most needed. He has guts & never say die attitude that propels others in the trenches fight’n for him. We as fans love to see someone leading the charge that his teammates love to go to war with. That’s Awesome!
Blove
December 22nd, 2011
9:01 am
When will you garbage ATL fans learn. Matty Melt will never take you
to the promise land !!! Maybe after this Monday nite A@# whopp’in by the Saints yall
will stop all this wishful thinking.
Red Helmet Swarm
December 22nd, 2011
9:17 am
Boy! This is great; don’t have to listen to any other muffled bloggin’ goin’ on when ur given opinion, at least tryin’ to be constructive. Much respect to Brees,as a person,fine athlete,very talented qb, him & Rogers topps no denyin’ that. I’m just pullin’ for my team.
trademark
December 22nd, 2011
9:18 am
When will all you garbage New Orleans fans get the hell off our blogs, and for that matter, every other team in the NFL’s blogs? Truly scared little trolls that feel the need to scream at everyone how great they HOPE their team is.
Red Helmet Swarm
December 22nd, 2011
9:19 am
D-MAN; ur right on; meant to say that sooner.
trademark
December 22nd, 2011
9:24 am
I mean, damn, I just checked out your NOLA.com site and while here are a couple of Falcons fans there, they are not posting 100 times with pointless rants troll-style. Grow up. Or just go away….either way, NO one wants you on their blogs. Trash.
Red Helmet Swarm
December 22nd, 2011
9:32 am
Hey trade; I had to learn my lesson recently because I know trash talkin’ folks are full of parasites, just eatin’up there insides that puttin down others on a atl blog only gives them temporary relief. They can’t help it. But hey trade, leaches can only crawl & suck so far. then bust. We keep hangin’ w/ the other folks who just want to talk football, not trash.
Red Helmet Swarm
December 22nd, 2011
9:38 am
Trade; ur cool because I love our bird fans havin’ a fire in there belly standin’ up against unobjective trolls & leaches that feed there in sides.
Red Helmet Swarm
December 22nd, 2011
10:16 am
I hope the offense can mix it more w/ snelling & rogers along w/ Turner, can they shape the running game in more 2 back packages,making them change of pace more, heck, do the end around re-verse w/julio when need be.
Jofo
December 22nd, 2011
10:25 am
The New Orleans sAINTS are still one-hit wonders!
Blove
December 22nd, 2011
11:20 am
Hey it aint a pointless rant if it’s the truth !!! Your QB is average ,Couch average, team average
The falcants only beat below r average teams this year ! Truth not rants
And again when will you garbage atl fans realize Matt Melt aint the answer !!! If this is a rant and not the truth go back and look at your record! Just try’in to help yall!!! Cause it hurts me to see all yall Garbage atl fans in shock. And discouraged.
over that last A@# whopp’n the Saints put on yall !!! Just try’in to help for the
Next MN game !! Not rant but plain honest truth. !!!
Big Dog
December 22nd, 2011
12:42 pm
The falcons are the new big dog in the south—ATL will beat new orleans—take it to the bank! ATL v. Green Bay for the NFC!!!!
Red Helmet Swarm
December 22nd, 2011
1:41 pm
Just savin’ finger muscle not to react to parasites(swamp juice)would take care of that. Let all of nola come on here cause they must be board on the saint site.
ShempHoward
December 22nd, 2011
6:31 pm
Matty Ice arm is so weak. He is unable to throw a football over 30 yards over 30 yards. Joe Montana had the same problem but won 4 superbowls. REGARDLESS OF WHO WINS THE SUPERBOWL THIS SEASON, I WANT EVERYONE TO KNOW THAT THE FALCONS HAVE ENOUGH TALENT ON THEIR ROSTER TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL THIS YEAR. WILL THEY GET IT DONE? I DOUBT IT, BUT THE OPPORTUNITY IS THERE.
stendek
December 23rd, 2011
12:12 am
Merry Christmas, almost, Mark. I want to believe in Matthew Ryan but I still do not. A loss to Saints will only deepen that disbelief. Who has MR beaten this season? Eagles, Seahawks, Panthers (twice), Lions, Colts, Titans, Vikings and Jaguars. The dregs of the NFL. Who have the Falcons of MR bowed to? Bears, Buccaneers, Packers, Saints and Texans. MR allowed his team to lose to the vastly inferior Bears, Buccaneers and, at that time, Texans. A group which, by the way, just went bellyup against the woeful Colts. Is that an elite QB? No. An average QB? No. A below average QB? Definitely. I have contended that MR has regressed markedly since his exceptional rookie season. Nothing to date has altered that perception. MR played with poise and confidence when he entered the NFL. That poise and confidence has completely disappeared. MR looks less like a leader most times than a deer trapped in headlights. This coming from one who has critiqued ALL the Falcon QBs since 1966. Before the jerks on here point to me as a Michael Sick apologist I want to remind all that I was in favor of the electric chair for the dog killer. So spare me that. Will MR win a playoff game? Maybe. A Super Bowl? Never. It is what it is!
trademark
December 23rd, 2011
5:30 am
I guess i want to respond to stendek, since it’s the only anti-Falcons post that seems to not come from Mars, or eating the whole damned crack-pipe….
Matt Ryan-16 comeback wins over 4 seasons. That is not, I repeat, NOT a description of someone who doesn’t handle pressure. I mean, really?
Below average QB? Again, ranked in the top 10 this year, and has been steadily improving, just look at the non-biased, non-opinionated numbers, they have no ability to distort the truth to serve their own purposes.
Dregs of the NFL? Seahawks (road), Eagles, Panthers (road), Lions(road), Titans. Please explain to me how these teams are “dregs” please? Three or four of them are potential or already-in-the playoff teams. And Carolina is playing their a$%es off lately, in case you haven’t been paying attention. Vastly inferior Bears? Huh? You do realize they were at full health at the time and were in the playoff hunt BIG TIME before Cutler went down, right? As far as the Texans losing to the Colts….again, if you’ve been paying attention, the Colts have turned it up several notches lately, and that was a DIVISION RIVAL. If you’ve been watching the NFL for as long as you claim, you should know by now that changes the whole game.
“A Super Bowl? Never.” Ummm…OK, why? Because you have to be one of the top 5 QBs in the league to get to one? Want me to list them that WEREN’T for you, since you obviously aren’t doing any research yourself? Grossman, Eli Manning, Delhomme, Gannon, Johnson, McNabb, Dilfer, Collins, McNair, O’Donnell, Humphries, Rypien, Hostetler, Williams, Eason….OK, damn, my fingers are literally cramping up here. You know the sad part? MAtt Ryan, at the rate of his progression statistically and field-general-wise, will be in that top 5 (or likely higher) in due time. It’s a mute point.
Opinions are like…well everybody knows the rest of that. Thanks for sharing. Let’s try a little reality. You don’t like Matt Ryan for whatever reason. Fine. No one’s forcing you to. I like him because he delivers. On the field and statistically a winner. I just disagree with you is all, it seems.
need4speed
December 23rd, 2011
6:11 am
i have seen a whole lot of his passes bounce off the recievers chest and face. Go between their hands too.
need4speed
December 23rd, 2011
6:24 am
IF you were to watch a saints game you would notice the biggest difference between Brees and Ryan is Brees receivers catch his passes.
Stepchild
December 23rd, 2011
7:00 am
Great post trademark @ 5:30
I think you outline a number of reasons to believe that MR will be the QB we need. I think you were a little generous with some of the claims though. The Super Bowl? We are talking about winning one, not just taking the team there. We have already visited the SB and watched the confetti fall for our opponent.
And yes statistically, MR looks very nice on paper….but he doesn’t have that IT factor as a QB or team leader. 1. His stats are much better than Tebow but can he will his team to victory. Can he command excellence from others? I always read about Brees & Brady conducting extra practice time with receivers….not only are they working but changing the culture of their organization….it’s required. 2. Can he make plays regardless of the situation? When nothing is working as planned…can he improvise…use his talents & intelligence to just find a way to make a play?(think of Eli Manning in the SB, escaping a sack and making a miracle throw) Or does he have to just throw the ball out of bounds because it didn’t look like that in practice.
I think the answers to those two questions are NO…..and that’s why he will always be a good/great QB on the stat sheet but not win over fans like perhaps Stendek & myself. Without those types of INTANGIBLES you end up with a guy who is capable but just not SPECIAL.
***I hate to say this but the M.Vick lovers (not me) understand this. When Vick is healthy he can be SPECIAL. Rothlisberger, Rodgers, Manning(both)….can be Special. Where does MRyan fall???? Game manager.
Stepchild
December 23rd, 2011
7:01 am
Matt Ryan in short is a capable NFL starter…..or a REALLY good backup. Kinda like Matt Schaub.
Stepchild
December 23rd, 2011
7:07 am
And while we’re at it….watch what’s going on in Carolina. We are the 2nd best team in the division this year but Carolina and Cam will be beasts for years to come. Cam is going to figure it out quickly and get those turnovers down….he’s a SPECIAL player….and their defense was decimated by injuries this year. Next year they will be tough to beat.
trademark
December 23rd, 2011
8:02 am
I dunno, a LOT of those QBs I listed on that post did win the SB. I think Ryan is more than capable, and also more than capable of improvising. I think what you’re describing is the “broken-play” mentality and instinct more than the improvising factor. Matt Ryan is more analytical. He reads the D’s (especially in the no-huddle) and adjusts in accordance. That’s a rarer talent and intelligence then the ability to instantly “fix” a broken play. The truth is, over 90% of the plays in the NFL develop EXACTLY how they’re supposed to from the playback, with the built-in adjustments for blitzes or receivers being out of position and so forth. Dumping it into the sidelines on the 5% or so of plays that are completely broken is no great sin. Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, for example, made a living doing it. All the way into the HOF. And no, I’m not trying to place Ryan with those guys. But no ones knows for sure if he gets there or not. Based on his first 4 years, which statically are actually better or right up there with them, and the fact that his progression level is also trending up in that same rate, I feel like the chances are pretty damned good. Ryan has a huge up-side, and that’s saying a lot considering how good he already is. The guys that scramble around and improvise and make those fantastic plays are great most of the time for only one thing: highlight shows. And when those plays don’t go the way they want, they can be disastrous, to the tune of maybe costing the game. Thanks, I’ll take the W before the highlight reel. As far as comparing him to Schaub….win record is a TON better with Ryan, I want the winner on my side.
stendek
December 23rd, 2011
11:55 am
Merry Christmas Trademark. To all Falcon fans. I appreciate your enthusiasm. I remember when Atlanta was awarded an NFL franchise. I was on Cloud 9. My enthusiasm matched yours. I lived and breathed every Falcon snap for the next, sorry, I have lost count, several decades. Enthusiasm gave way to faint hope then to despair as the 1960s gave way to the 1970s to the 1980s and so on. That Super Bowl championship which was just around the corner never materalized. I am now in the twilight of my years. Not many Falcon seasons left for me. A Super Bowl was laid out for the Falcons which they allowed the Packers to steal from them. Yes, the Falcons were destined to win that season. Not the gritty bunch of my hero Chris Chandler but a capable group. Except that Matt Ryan played more like a high school freshman than an NFL QB. Time window? Closed! SLAMMM! I guess I was most upset with MR when he slid a foot short of a first down instead of manning up. Premiere QBs do not let their teammates down that way. I do not dislike MR. I just do not envision him taking the Falcons to the promised land. The next game will go a long way towards my personal perception of the player. Misfires on open plays against Saints will be fatal. Sacks will be damaging. Throws out of bounds are not pretty because most cheerleaders do not catch that well. Thanks for intelligent comments. Best. Ho ho ho.
stendek
December 23rd, 2011
12:17 pm
Talent is nice but talent alone does not win championships. The Phillies were far and away the most talented pro baseball team but were sent to the sidelines right off the bat. Hee hee. The Canucks were stacked with talent but choked against the vastly less talented Bruins in the championship. Why? No team can win a championship without heart and other intangibles which simply cannot be measured during combines. If a receiver has blazing speed but drops passes what good is he? If a QB chooses to throw the pass out of bounds if primary target is not open or slides a foot short of a first down on a critical third down what good is he? Some of the most exciting football plays I have witnessed occurred long after the primary play broke down. I do not see these intangibles from Matt Ryan. I say do whatever the Hell it takes to win. Period!
ShempHoward
December 23rd, 2011
12:44 pm
Whomever says SCHAUB is a good backup is wrong and is brainwashed. Arthur Blank and former Falcon coach Jim Mora felt Vick was the second coming of Christ and thereby made the convicted felon RICH with a 200million contract. Meanwhile, Schaub was sitting on the bench, patiently waiting his turn to start and was wasting his formative years in which he could have been leading the league in passing. As fate would have it, and as justice would prevail–Vick had been hiding behind the shadow of his mediocrity and his poor performances on the field by bankrolling his illustrious ILLEGAL AND HEINOUS DOGFIGHTING OPERATION which slaughtered, electrocuted and drowned innocent creatures and some of Gods precious animals. As fate would have it, Vick got caught and served his prison sentence, while Schaub was being traded to Houston—where Schaub is proving that he is one of the premier quarterbacks–only behind Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Schaub is the 4th best qb in the NFL. Last year, Matt Schaub won the MVP trophy in the pro bowl and was considered the best players among all-stars. Schaub has proven time and time again that if Vick hadnt taken away the first 7 years of his career by starting ahead of Schaub, SCHAUB CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE BECOME A FIRST-BALLOT HALL OF FAME QUARTERBACK–PROBABLY IN THE TOP 10 IN NFL HISTORY. Thank you Mr. Vick for screwing up the career of Matt Schaub.
trademark
December 23rd, 2011
1:13 pm
LOL Shemp, dog, coach and back up QB killer….damn. Who’s the back up at Philly? He better watch out…oh yeah..Kafka (!) How funny is that?
Super Bowl!
December 23rd, 2011
1:37 pm
The falcons are primed and ready for the playoffs after that huge beatdown over jacksonville. The ATL will be in the super bowl this year or next—count on it. Julio and Matt—best combo in the NFC!!! Falcons beat the saints!!!
WreckingBall
December 23rd, 2011
3:23 pm
Super Bowl! I like your enthusiasm. I too believe the Falcons will win the superbowl. The Falcons just need to start believing in themselves. Their record easily could have been 12-2 had they beaten G.B., Saints and Houston. Had that happened the national media would have had more confidence in them as well as the falcons players themselves would have had more confidence. 12-2 looks so much better than 9-5. We had G.B. beaten 14-0 before they came back and made it a game down 14-6 at halftime. We had the texans beaten had touchdown passes and first down passes not been dropped. We had the saints reeling in o.t. and had possession twice–all it took was marching down the field and scoring the winning FG. Both times we failed and let them win the game when mike smith panicked and went for the fourth down play at his own 30. That was the dumbest call ever by a head coach in the history of the game. Sants didnt have to do anthing after that but line up and kick the winning FG. The Falcons, as I said before, have the ability to win the championship. Until they start believing in themselves, they will allways be DOORMATS and WANNABES.
stendek
December 23rd, 2011
3:38 pm
Here is the not so secret defensive game plan to either beat Saints down or lose by 100 points:
Resurrect Jerry Glanville Glitz Blitz for one night. One magical night. Hit Drew Brees so often that his bruises will have bruises. Allowing the Saint QB time is akin to ingesting arsenic slowly. Everything seems fine but only death awaits at the end. That is what the passive defense will accomplish. Just as prevent defense only prevents victory. Falcons are defending division champions. Play like it! A close defeat will pain me just as much as a blowout loss. Oh well. Merry Christmas fellow birdie watchers. Blessed be.
Saints R.E.A.M.
December 23rd, 2011
11:38 pm
Shemp, really??? If Matt Schaub was so good he would have won the starting job over Mike Vick. He couldn’t and the rest is history. If a backup is really that good he can win the starting job…otherwise…he has no one to blame.
Schaub, is a nice QB….he is no playmaker. He can make all of the throws but he has a panic button in him and will turn it over. He can thank his lucky stars for A. Foster & A. Johnson…a prime receiver and a great running game…heck I could put up some decent numbers with that group!!
trademark
December 24th, 2011
5:47 am
From ESPN stats:
(Ryan)”He is 42-18 in his career….has won more starts in his first four seasons than any quarterback since the Super Bowl era started in1966. ”
Clear yet?
Mr Charlie
December 24th, 2011
3:48 pm
I am just really glad Mark Sanchez is not our QB,,,,yea yea, he has won a playoff game, but he really looks bad. He should have 10 picks today.
Mr Charlie
December 24th, 2011
3:49 pm
Make that 11
Mr Charlie
December 24th, 2011
11:18 pm
All running QB’s are thugs. They can’t read and they stink. I’m glad we have Matt Ryan.
#7
December 25th, 2011
1:01 am
Vick > ryan—enough said!
trademark
December 25th, 2011
10:49 am
…uh…yeah, enough said…if you have the IQ of a piece of dung