Is Matt Ryan the NFL’s best? Nope. Is he good enough? Yep
Here we have an actual picture of an icecap. Get it? (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Fair’s fair. If we criticize Matt Ryan for not throwing the best deep ball and for authoring a tepid start to this season — and we have on both counts — we must also say this: The guy’s got it going now. (Maybe not on the deep pass, but on everything else.)
Matt Ryan through the first seven games of 2011: Nine touchdown passes, eight interceptions, a yards-per-pass average of 6.68 and a 79.5 passer rating.
Matt Ryan through the next seven games of 2011: Seventeen touchdown passes, four interceptions, a yards-per-pass average of 7.96 and a 101.5 passer rating.
It’s not as if Ryan is throwing more, or even more accurately. His totals for attempts and completions from those first seven games to the past seven are almost identical. What’s different if the effect. By whatever means — slightly deeper throws, more yards-after-catch — the Falcons have become more pass-productive.
Numbers geeks insist the single most important stat in football is yards per attempt, and through seven games the Falcons’ YPA was pedestrian. Now it meets NFL requirements. Through seven games Ryan hadn’t had much of a season, but he’s having one now. He’s on pace to set personal bests for yardage and touchdowns, and he’s 0.5 off his best seasonal passer rating.
In sum, the chilliness of Matty Ice has yielded to a warming trend. We nitpick the guy to shreds — I’m as guilty as anyone — but in the carping we sometimes miss the bigger picture.
Is Ryan among the NFL’s five best quarterbacks? No. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning comprise a front four unto themselves, and Ben Roethlisberger’s two Super Bowl rings make him No. 5.
Is Ryan among the NFL’s 10 best quarterbacks? Absolutely. Behind the top five, I’d put him in the second tier of four more or less alongside Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco. (Who fills out the top 10? Maybe Tony Romo. Maybe Matt Schaub or Matthew Stafford. Maybe, in a different year, Michael Vick.)
Here are the other salient numbers regarding Ryan — 42-20. That’s the Falcons’ record in games he has started. That’s a winning percentage of .677, and it puts him in high company. Brady and Roethelisberger have won at a higher rate, and so has Rodgers, if barely. (He was 44-21 entering Sunday’s game.) But that .667 beats the great Peyton Manning’s career winning percentage, which is .661.
And here you’re saying: Peyton’s career record was skewed by the 3-13 of his rookie season. That’s true, but Ryan was drafted by a team that had gone 4-12 the year before and was working under a new coach. The 2008 Falcons were a prime candidate to go 3-13, but their new quarterback didn’t let them. The 2008 Falcons went 11-5 instead and made the playoffs, and they haven’t had a losing season under Ryan (or Mike Smith).
In a weird way, Ryan’s rookie season has jaundiced our view. If he was that good that soon, we all wondered, how much better would he be given another couple of years? We’ve gotten our answer: Not all that much better. He was tough and polished from the start, and he’s tough and polished now. His completion percentage is actually slightly lower in Year 4 than in Year 1, and so is his yards-per-attempt. But he’s still winning, and as Smith noted after the Minnesota game: “That’s the only number that matters for a quarterback.”
A few weeks ago Jim Trotter of Sports Illustrated examined the career path of four NFL quarterbacks who had early success — Ryan, Flacco, Mark Sanchez of the Jets and Josh Freeman of the Buccaneers — and wondered if, because they played in sophisticated college offenses, they arrived in the NFL “with less room to grow.” Thomas Dimitroff, the Falcons’ general manager, offered Trotter this rather fascinating quote:
There are some very valid levels below that elite [quarterback] level that can allow organizations to be successful and make runs at Super Bowls. Everyone needs to understand that … They don’t have to necessarily [have] the elite quarterback of the league to be successful as a team.
Some might interpret that as Dimitroff saying the man he drafted with his first pick as GM will never be as good as Rodgers or Brees or Brady or Peyton M., but his greater point was: Does it matter? Eli Manning has won as many Super Bowls as his big brother. Brad Johnson won as many Super Bowls as Brett Favre. The key question to ask of an NFL quarterback: Can this guy win a championship?
The Falcons have Matt Ryan. He might not be the best there is, but he’s plenty good enough. He can win a championship. He’ll win a playoff game, and maybe more than one, next month.
By Mark Bradley
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389 comments Add your comment
old man
December 18th, 2011
10:17 pm
Yeah, we should have picked Joe Flacco.
Mike
December 18th, 2011
10:17 pm
It’s kind of funny how Matt Ryan and Aaron Murray parallel each other in terms of on the field success and public opinion. Both are slightly above average and play well against lesser opponents, but both seem to struggle in big games against quality opponents. Against bad teams, they both put up big numbers, and the fans credit them for the victory. Against good teams, turnovers and lack of production rule the day, and fans blame the OC, the defense and/or the receivers.
VLDL
December 18th, 2011
10:18 pm
Both of the teams we lost to in the playoffs went to the superbowl…. just sayin
old man
December 18th, 2011
10:19 pm
Or is it Joe Crappo now?
Look it up. The same people who are down on Ryan now were saying they would prefer Flacco a few months ago. Yeah, they sure know their football.
JSS
December 18th, 2011
10:19 pm
Joe Flacco will look horrible for 15 minutes to half a game… Then suddenly he’ll catch fire and hitting stuff… It is the streaky nature of his game now…
phil
December 18th, 2011
10:19 pm
Rivers is peyton manning!
Good nite.
JSS
December 18th, 2011
10:19 pm
Who beamed down 2009 Philip Rivers from Lovetron?
JSS
December 18th, 2011
10:21 pm
No, that is just crazy UGA fans…. They made David Greene a god…
old man
December 18th, 2011
10:21 pm
Somebody needs to talk to Flacco about that mustache. Nasty.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
10:26 pm
Well Mike, he still is has a big game Monday night on the 26th to try and put on a good performance against a top notch team. That will be a good opp to erase the hasn’t played well against good teams knock this year. I agree he has not done well in almost all the losses, but I think he was pretty good against the Saints in that first game. The Int hurt, but he did a nice job that game. Close tough game.
Joe Tess Fish House
December 18th, 2011
10:34 pm
I stil dont get this love 4 Ryan. He overthrous 2 many pases, gets sax 2 many times and has 2 many INTS and U all still love him.
THey should of had sighed a defence player instead of drafting Ryan. No dout they wood be in the Superbowel by now.
DawgNole
December 18th, 2011
10:35 pm
72 Million, how’s your love interest Flacco doing tonight against a very average Charger team?
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
10:37 pm
come on Joe Tess . ..if you are going to try and phonetically spell words . .. .don’t you think overthroes would work better than overthrous? A little tired or did you rush that one?
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
10:39 pm
. . . .I meant try to phonetically misspell not spell!
Joe Tess Fish House
December 18th, 2011
10:42 pm
WHat?
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
10:44 pm
OK . . .I’ll stop:)
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
10:50 pm
It’s simple JSS…I’ll give you my “eye” test. Last year, and especially this year, I don’t see any explosion whatsoever in Turner’s game. He used to have it. Sure, he needs a hole, more than some guys do. But in the past, when the hole was there, he’d often be 5, 7, 10 yards downfield before he’d be in danger of getting brought down. He’d get hit, but he’d be strong and elusive enough to keep plowing. And, when he reached the clear, he could get deep into the secondary. Lately, he runs into piles (even if there is a hole), the first guy often brings him down (often by a shoestring), he bails out on the sidelines too often, and when he gets free, he is easily caught by DBs and even some LBs. And, the stats bear it out. Now, can we win with Turner? Yes, as long as the rest of the offense is clicking, he can do “enough.” See how I turned the usual Ryan argument on its head? Isn’t that hard.
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
10:53 pm
I’m more sure than ever that Joe Tess went to Pace Academy then the Wharton School, and is now an Investment banker living in Sugarloaf…and yankin’ all y’alls chain.
Kris G
December 18th, 2011
10:59 pm
I don’t blame Mularkey. I blame Dimitroff. With his philosophy of making splashes, we end up with personnel that is quite limited in some respects, meaning downfield passing and screen passing. We have a team that shows incredible flashes, but can’t be consistent, because we spend all of our energy and draft picks on skill players. No consistency on the lines. One really good player in the secondary. Matt Ryan, even with his weaknesses, is a quality QB, a winner. But without better personnel, we don’t have the diversisty to cover his flaws.
breeswarning
December 18th, 2011
11:02 pm
Ryan is a good NFL QB but he is definitly not elite. The Falcons will see elite next Monday night when they face the best passing offense in the history of the NFL that also has a better running game than the Falcons, better offensive line and is the hottest team in the NFL. The Saints will clinch the division and most likely the #2 seed after they send the Falcants back home.
JSS
December 18th, 2011
11:52 pm
I look at Turner like a mini Okoye type runner… He explodes, but only on the 2nd and 3rd level… Give him a hole, not a shiver… Otherwise, that is as good as it going to get,,, I like the Rogers kids , still he’s a year or two away from being to block blitzes on this level….That might get the full blown Matty kiled…
Mora less Petrino
December 19th, 2011
12:12 am
It’s more than stat’s that a team needs from the QB position, leadership is huge. Ryan is a leader and will only improve in the coming seasons. Bartkowski and Chandler were good leaders, Ryan is a good leader. Jeff Boy George and Ron Mexico, not so much.
Pete
December 19th, 2011
12:53 am
I think it is a misnomer that when the team goes into the no-huddle offense that Ryan is calling the plays and Mularkey is, what, just watching, I guess.
Also, I’m tired of “Opera” and “Mercedes.” How about “lumberjack” and “Gatorade?”
yo mama
December 19th, 2011
1:33 am
do any of the dang writers here at the ajc, ever allude to the stat that Ryan also has the most drops, td drops in the league? heez man, add like 30 catches to the 50 drops this year and the guy is tops in the league, and gives Brew Drees a run for his money. cant call him drew, thats a sign of respect. cant respect him. why, cuz he is a aint, hate, hate the aints. hate their aint fans too. they stupid and low class.
Eric
December 19th, 2011
1:57 am
Matt Ryan is EASILY the greatest QB Atlanta has ever had. He is a natural leader, is very smart and has shown a propensity for coming through in the clutch (how many 4th quarter comebacks does he have?). The ONLY thing the guy lacks so far is a playoff win but considering the two teams they lost to both went on to the SB, that’s not such a terrible thing. This year he gets that monkey off the back and I see a SB Championship coming soon thereafter.
Eric
December 19th, 2011
2:00 am
Good point Yo mama, he has had an awful lot of drops this year (the Roddy drop in the EZ against NO cost us the game and the JJ drop against Houston would have tied the game).
painter
December 19th, 2011
2:22 am
Saints fans: up by 6 points with two minutes left in the game, which QB scares you more than Ryan? You can’t choose Brees cause he’s on your team. Rodgers, Brady, the Mannings, Tebow??
christopher
December 19th, 2011
3:42 am
matt is a great qb sometimes the oline lets him down but one really big prob is when you need them the most rerceivers drop the ball there is three games we lost because of receivers. we should have beat the saints but roddy dropped the ball texans same and tampa. heck all our games we lost was dropped passes. if the ones they should have caught was on there matty ice would look outstanding and have more wins too
trademark
December 19th, 2011
5:33 am
Ignoring all the race-baiters (you know who you are, the ones that DIDN’T EXIST HERE while Vick was playing and losing almost half of the time….)
This article is dead-on. Ryan is NOT Rodgers, Brees, Brady or Manning. Very few are. He IS top- 5-7, though, and that is right up there with the best. Big Benn is up there because of his two rings. When (NOT “if”) the Falcons and Ryan are wearing one, then let the discussion begin. Personally, I think he’s very comparable to the Pittsburgh signal-caller, but actually a better passer. More than enough to win a Super Bowl or two (or three….)
To make another point clear, if Ryan had the passing games in the first 7 games that he’s had in the last 7, we’d all be INCLUDING him in that list with Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Manning. The QB rating would be through the roof, and without so many drops (some of them leading DIRECTLY to ints) they just might be there.
He’s woken up lately, just like the whole damned team. Coincidence? Don’t think so. Ryan with a QB rating of 100 or more? Falcons (as a team) 22-0. Let that soak in. UNdefeated. That’s lethal on many, many levels.
Prince
December 19th, 2011
7:06 am
Trademark, Ryan is not a top 7 QB. Brees, Rodgers, Peyton, Eli (yes, Eli,), Romo, Rivers, Stafford, Schaub, Rivers, Vick, and Cam Newton is already on Ryan’s heals. And Just wait until Luck and RGIII hit the scene.
Saints R.E.A.M.
December 19th, 2011
7:26 am
Wrong again…Trademark….Big Ben, is a playmaker in ways that Ryan never will be. Mainly because Ben can extend plays and make SOMETHING out of a nothing play….like really good QB’s can do. They are like jazz musicians…they can improvise. …..because guess what…..sometimes the plays don’t work the same way it was drawn up on the chalk board. When plays don’t work according to the Chalk board…..ole Matty throws it out of bounds for safety. Not a bad play but a rather average QB play. Something a backup would do all the time.
Matt is a serviceable QB….but when Turner is not producing and it’s Matt Ryan time….he doesn’t deliver….not against good teams consistently.
PapaDawg
December 19th, 2011
7:32 am
His Stats would be a whole lot higher if his freaking receivers would quit dropping so many balls
trademark
December 19th, 2011
7:37 am
Prince, Yeah, Eli of the three int super choke game that just knocked his team out of the playoffs (against Seattle….damn). Romo, whose crunch-time record in December or crucial games is about 0-for-a thousand, Rivers, who maybe once was better, but since we’re talking about the PRESENT (I hope….), isn’t doing so hot, or maybe those 17 ints he’s thrown this season aren’t really bothering the Chargers…..Cam Newton, who yeah, is really , REALLY good at throwing away big leads right into the other teams’ hands, JFYI, Ryan STARTED in his rookie season with that whole 4th-quarter-comeback WINNING thing…and Vick….really? Vick?? Dude, PLEASE get over your man-crush with the 21st rated QB in the league, who is the QB on the “dream” team this year, one of the BIGGEST disappointments in the history of the NFL. If I start laughing at that one right now, you get your wish, because I probably won’t stop until I laugh myself to death about Vick being “elite” Never was, never will be, either.
And yeah, we can wait for Luck and Bobby Griffen Cubed. But really, rookie QBs are still a gamble. And when you consider Flacco, Freeman, et. al, they aren’t exactly on their way to the top 10 either. Weak-a$%ed argument. Back it up with SOMETHING at least besides opinions.
Bottom line, by the numbers, Ryan is a top 10 QB for the year (so far, very likely climbing), TOP 5, when you count the last 7 games and the 101 QB rating, and already top 7 by the new total QBR. Count in the intangibles of field generalsmanship and comeback WINS, and he’s up there with the best.
trademark
December 19th, 2011
7:45 am
Saints REAM(ed) -”When plays don’t work according to the Chalk board…..ole Matty throws it out of bounds for safety. Not a bad play but a rather average QB play….
Matt is a serviceable QB….but when Turner is not producing and it’s Matt Ryan time….he doesn’t deliver….not against good teams consistently.”
Please read the stats….the running game has been systematically taken away by defenses this year, especially in the last 2 games, Atlanta USED to have a top 1-2 or so running game in Ryan’s first 3 seasons, it’s dropped to like 17th this year, as teams have SCHEMED to make Ryan beat them. And he’s responded by posting some of the best numbers of his career over the last 7.
As for the improved plays, please try to explain to me what the hell a No-Huddle offense is…and just how efficiently the Falcon’s offense runs when it’s being implemented. Total impov based on the Defense, totally scary to defend, and run to damn near perfection.
Damn, now you made me feel bad, contradicting a Saints fan is like beating up a blind toddler….
Nativebird
December 19th, 2011
8:07 am
The Ryan haters will never ever give it up because their problem is not with what he does, but with what he is. All he does is win, (all he does is win). UNLEASH! Fire Mularkey. Ryan is the best Offensive Coordinator the Falcons have ever had. Mularkey is Ryan’s only limitation. No imagination, No attack mentality. No killer instinct.
Really?
December 19th, 2011
8:13 am
Stats don’t lie… Manning, Brees, didn’t win their first playoff game until their 6th year. Ryan is in his 4th
just sayin'
December 19th, 2011
8:14 am
game manager….not a bad thing…but not elite… if that 5-7yd crossing route isn’t open, happy feet takes over and the ‘deer in the headlights’ look appears…deep passes are inaccurate and no one is threatened by them…
Say what
December 19th, 2011
8:30 am
Pete
December 19th, 2011
12:53 am
“I think it is a misnomer that when the team goes into the no-huddle offense that Ryan is calling the plays and Mularkey is, what, just watching, I guess. ”
You’re wrong, Pete. I can’t find the link, but after the Panthers game, Todd Mclure did a video for atlantafalcons.com in which he explained that Ryan called the TD wheel route for Quizz. On that play, and many other no-huddle or at-the-line changes, yes, Mularkey is just watching.
bjohndawg
December 19th, 2011
8:33 am
Dawgs go to Southern Cal and win on the road. And the AJC writers dont even write about it days later. What is up with that?
Saints R.E.A.M.
December 19th, 2011
8:42 am
Trademark, Ryan runs a “no-huddle” only in name. They are in essence taking a 15 second “huddle” at the line to pick a play. That’s not improvisation. It’s basically calling a play (chalk board) at the line. It also seems to break down a bit on the road due to noise. It’s a nice little novelty that really works great against average teams.
Turner is 3rd in the league in rushing. So all these defenses scheming to stop the run ain’t getting it done. Falcon fans are always bad mouthing Turner and screaming to get Jacquizz more touches…..foolish. So…ok…Ryan has been responding…uh…ok. If you are happy with the production so be it. I see this team as underperforming offensively and Ryan is the key to that. Especially, since he can audible at any time and correct Mularkey’s horrible play calls.
Statick
December 19th, 2011
8:46 am
Ryan is a great QB for us and I’m proud to have him.
Quarterback
December 19th, 2011
8:46 am
For whatever it is worth, as a former high school, college and NFL QB (2 years), it is my opinion that Mark Bradley is pretty much spot on. I also give high praise to “trademark’s” initial assessment.
Matt Ryan certainly has not the arm or athleticism of a Rodgers. Few do. However, his intangibles and leadership are exceptional, his work ethic non surpassed, and he really throws a very catchable ball. Further, he has recently very accurate on the deeper routes due to more repetitions.
To put it concisely, Matt Ryan is, all things considered, a top tier NFL QB who can be as successful as any QB in the game today with the exception of Rodgers and Brady, tow of the best ever to walk on the field.
As some have mentioned previously, the real issue with the Falcons offense rests with their offensive line. In my opinion they, as a group, are average to below average and this may be the offense’s Achilles heel come the postseason. As good as they have done elsewhere, the Falcons leadership have done a rather poor job of drafting or acquiring pro bowl quality talent along both the offensive and defensive lines and this usually rears it’s ugly head somewhere along the path in the postseason.
My two cents…
Ichabod
December 19th, 2011
9:26 am
Watching the replays of the Falcon’s losses to Green Bay and the Saints I see that we held our own on a lot of plays until we allowed Brees or Rodgers step up into the pocket. We need to have a big rush up the middle. The outside rush would come on great only to have them take a step or two forward and gain another second or two for the receiver to get open. Collapse the Pocket up the Middle !! A great QB is only great when he is vertical.
Leeman Bennett
December 19th, 2011
9:41 am
After reading all the posts it is easy to see that some people haven’t even read this article, but they sure do react to it. The statistics support Mar’s position. All you haters need to go find someplace else to spew all your venom. Let’s say that Falcons did win the Super Bowl this year. If that did happen, the only thing some people would say was that it took too long. Shoot,the Arizona Cardinals, the Cleveland Browns, the Detroit Lions, the Houston Texans, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have never even made it to the Super Bowl. The Falcons have done that! Now, I know that what fans want is to win, no excuses. But is the hatred necessary?
Saints R.E.A.M.
December 19th, 2011
9:43 am
I think Brees is this years MVP. Rodgers got attention early but Drew has him beat in almost every statistical category. Also, the Saints offense is on pace to break the 2000 Rams “Greatest Show on turf” record for most yards by an offensive unit. Yes, guys the most prolific offense in the history of the NFL is from New Orleans!
Enjoy the REAL show…..Roddy White….Lol.
Steve Bartkowski
December 19th, 2011
9:45 am
Being a falcon fan I can say this. There are too many cry babies here. Not good enough? Let compare Ryan to other FALCON QBs since Peachtree Bart. There are none that have performed better over the four years he’s been here. That includes Chris Miller, Jeff (drama mama) Goerge, Bobby Herbert, etc..
what of it?
December 19th, 2011
9:45 am
He’s never won a playoff game, and since as you stated, winning is the only stat that matters, what is the argument that he’s good enough?
12 men in the huddle
December 19th, 2011
9:46 am
It’s very simple. When Ryan doesn’t throw interceptions and the falcons run the ball effectively, they win.
D man
December 19th, 2011
9:50 am
Matt is getting better everyday. I think he can lead this team to a Superbowl and win it…
Saints R.E.A.M.
December 19th, 2011
9:53 am
Is Matt Stafford better than Matt Ryan? hmmm….. He has led Detroit to several comebacks this year…he is a better playmaker, has a better arm ……….Who would you prefer to have?