Is Matt Ryan the NFL’s best? Nope. Is he good enough? Yep
Here we have an actual picture of an icecap. Get it? (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Fair’s fair. If we criticize Matt Ryan for not throwing the best deep ball and for authoring a tepid start to this season — and we have on both counts — we must also say this: The guy’s got it going now. (Maybe not on the deep pass, but on everything else.)
Matt Ryan through the first seven games of 2011: Nine touchdown passes, eight interceptions, a yards-per-pass average of 6.68 and a 79.5 passer rating.
Matt Ryan through the next seven games of 2011: Seventeen touchdown passes, four interceptions, a yards-per-pass average of 7.96 and a 101.5 passer rating.
It’s not as if Ryan is throwing more, or even more accurately. His totals for attempts and completions from those first seven games to the past seven are almost identical. What’s different if the effect. By whatever means — slightly deeper throws, more yards-after-catch — the Falcons have become more pass-productive.
Numbers geeks insist the single most important stat in football is yards per attempt, and through seven games the Falcons’ YPA was pedestrian. Now it meets NFL requirements. Through seven games Ryan hadn’t had much of a season, but he’s having one now. He’s on pace to set personal bests for yardage and touchdowns, and he’s 0.5 off his best seasonal passer rating.
In sum, the chilliness of Matty Ice has yielded to a warming trend. We nitpick the guy to shreds — I’m as guilty as anyone — but in the carping we sometimes miss the bigger picture.
Is Ryan among the NFL’s five best quarterbacks? No. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning comprise a front four unto themselves, and Ben Roethlisberger’s two Super Bowl rings make him No. 5.
Is Ryan among the NFL’s 10 best quarterbacks? Absolutely. Behind the top five, I’d put him in the second tier of four more or less alongside Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco. (Who fills out the top 10? Maybe Tony Romo. Maybe Matt Schaub or Matthew Stafford. Maybe, in a different year, Michael Vick.)
Here are the other salient numbers regarding Ryan — 42-20. That’s the Falcons’ record in games he has started. That’s a winning percentage of .677, and it puts him in high company. Brady and Roethelisberger have won at a higher rate, and so has Rodgers, if barely. (He was 44-21 entering Sunday’s game.) But that .667 beats the great Peyton Manning’s career winning percentage, which is .661.
And here you’re saying: Peyton’s career record was skewed by the 3-13 of his rookie season. That’s true, but Ryan was drafted by a team that had gone 4-12 the year before and was working under a new coach. The 2008 Falcons were a prime candidate to go 3-13, but their new quarterback didn’t let them. The 2008 Falcons went 11-5 instead and made the playoffs, and they haven’t had a losing season under Ryan (or Mike Smith).
In a weird way, Ryan’s rookie season has jaundiced our view. If he was that good that soon, we all wondered, how much better would he be given another couple of years? We’ve gotten our answer: Not all that much better. He was tough and polished from the start, and he’s tough and polished now. His completion percentage is actually slightly lower in Year 4 than in Year 1, and so is his yards-per-attempt. But he’s still winning, and as Smith noted after the Minnesota game: “That’s the only number that matters for a quarterback.”
A few weeks ago Jim Trotter of Sports Illustrated examined the career path of four NFL quarterbacks who had early success — Ryan, Flacco, Mark Sanchez of the Jets and Josh Freeman of the Buccaneers — and wondered if, because they played in sophisticated college offenses, they arrived in the NFL “with less room to grow.” Thomas Dimitroff, the Falcons’ general manager, offered Trotter this rather fascinating quote:
There are some very valid levels below that elite [quarterback] level that can allow organizations to be successful and make runs at Super Bowls. Everyone needs to understand that … They don’t have to necessarily [have] the elite quarterback of the league to be successful as a team.
Some might interpret that as Dimitroff saying the man he drafted with his first pick as GM will never be as good as Rodgers or Brees or Brady or Peyton M., but his greater point was: Does it matter? Eli Manning has won as many Super Bowls as his big brother. Brad Johnson won as many Super Bowls as Brett Favre. The key question to ask of an NFL quarterback: Can this guy win a championship?
The Falcons have Matt Ryan. He might not be the best there is, but he’s plenty good enough. He can win a championship. He’ll win a playoff game, and maybe more than one, next month.
By Mark Bradley
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389 comments Add your comment
No zip on the ball
December 18th, 2011
8:50 pm
I think Bradley is trying to instill some holiday cheer and hope for us Falcons fans. My concern is that in a QB league, the ELITE QBs going forward will be the difference. Follow the money and trends. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Big Ben, Peyton and Eli – those are elite QBs, proven commodities with hardware to show for it.
As far as the next rung – I’m not sure Ryan is in that group. Just in the NFC – you have more consistent 3rd down playmakers – Cutler, Stafford, Vick , Romo and as mush as it pains me to say it – Cam Newton is on his way.
So – as we look into the crystal ball – I don’t see Ryan’s skill set improving enough to pass Brees, and due to lack of mobility and arm strength – I see him having a hard time holding off Cam Newton. That relegates the Falcons to 3rd best QB in the NFC – and Josh Freeman is no slouch.
I think the franchise, with a soon to be 5th yr NFL QB – needs to at least bring in a mobile and seasoned back up. Our O-line is no worse than New Orleans or any other. You have to have a QB who can extend plays with his feet to put more pressure on the defense.
rm
December 18th, 2011
8:51 pm
How stupid are some of these people…no one is saying Ryan is elite. Only that he is good enough to win. Read the title of the article at least…That mean you 72. Let me know if I need to s l o w down for you and explain it again. Again no one is say he is elite. Comprehend that??? You look like a fool with your argument but thanks for the laugh
Great Falconi
December 18th, 2011
8:52 pm
It’s a mistake to think that Matt Ryan isn’t any better now than he was when he came into the league. We’ve seen his growth as a player just from the success he has had calling his own plays. Of course he’s better, and most QBs really hit their stride as passers in their late twenties. Ryan turns 27 next March. I’m not crazy enough to expect Matt Ryan to be a Hall of Famer, but I do expect him to be the best QB this franchise has ever had because of his ability to read defenses and to distribute the ball. That ability makes him the foundation for this club now and in the years to come.
Mark Bradley
December 18th, 2011
8:52 pm
I wouldn’t write off Michael Turner just yet. He’s third in the NFL in yards rushing.
Anderson
December 18th, 2011
8:54 pm
Mark Bradley, your recollection of the Denver game in 2008 is crystal clear. That is exactly how that play/pass by Ryan/drop by R White occurred.
I agree with the person who said that Matt Ryan is a second tier top 10 NFL QB. I have him about #7 or #8. Ryan’s career is progressing nicely when compared to the first four years of other currently elite NFL QBs such as Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Eli Manning.
I firmly believe that when Matt Ryan’s NFL career ends he will have a Super Bowl win or two. He is just a winner,pure and simple. He and WR Julio Jones will be a lethal combination for years to come.
As for the here and now (2011),it will be very interesting which QB (Manning,Newton,Romo,Ryan, or Stafford) gets that 3rd NFC Pro Bowl QB spot. I would give the slight edge to M Ryan over Romo and/or Stafford. Newton has great stats overall but he is lacking in the wins column.
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
8:55 pm
@MB, have you checked out Turner’s YPC? Check out the seasonal trend, and the trend within this season. It isn’t pretty. And by the way, this is a passing league now. It isn’t the middle part of the last decade when the Larry Johnsons, Sean Alexanders, Priest Holmes and Jamal Lewis’s of the world were dominating the stats and the fantasy leagues. Put this year’s running stats against that era and you wouldn’t be touting Turner. And you shouldn’t.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
8:55 pm
72 Mill . . …what is so confusing here? Again – M Bradley has pretty clearly indicated that (See Title of Column) that Brees, Brady, Rogers, and Manning are in the Elite league of their own. Big Ben . .in his own category following them . . . .then some pretty good QBs (yep:) ) . .that is where he puts Ryan. Why do folks try and twists the wording of the article as the blog grapevine grows. Brees – better than Ryan. Manning (Peyton) – better than Ryan. Brady and Rogers . . .better than Ryan. Big Ben – better than Ryan. The rest . . . . Ryan would be in the upper crust of the rest. No one called him Elite!!! 90% of the Ryan Supporters on the blogs do NOT call him Elite. One day. Maybe. Not today.
Me
December 18th, 2011
8:56 pm
Why would anyone have to be a “blind loyalist” to appreciate what Ryan has done (the point of Mark’s article)?
————————-
You wouldn’t be a blind loyalist for appreciating Ryan. Don’t take the comment out of context. The blind loyalist comment was in response to an earlier comment that stated Ryan would be elite if the Falcons had a better o-line. I simply pointed out that Ryan has be sacked no more than his “elite” peers.
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
8:58 pm
@ORR, perfectly said. About half way through this season, I think we could all agree that Ryan was a pretty average QB (and not even that on a couple of occasions). 14 games in, I think we are very safe to call him well above average/upper crust of the third tier as defined by the article (i.e. lower part of the top 10).
JSS
December 18th, 2011
9:01 pm
And I gave them credit for the comeback… I also called the Vikings very bad,,, The Saints NEVER trailed, they were never scrambling for their playoff life… I said they made MISTAKES in the first half… This one of the reasons I’ve become so caustic… You can put a lot of words on me, but it is a statement, because multiple bloggers keep making a point of the Seattle game last January. They make a point of bring up the Rams (while dismissing the Tampa) which they never led by the way… You can’t have it both ways (those who gripe on New Orleans)…
JSS
December 18th, 2011
9:04 pm
So there’s the difference, one favored team went on the road, and when from start of the game until the end of it, they never trailed, they put up 21 and 21 in each half and they held the opponent under 100 yards of offense until well into the 4th quarter… They made a statement today…
old man
December 18th, 2011
9:07 pm
One of the three QBs below is the QB rating for each of the first 5 years for Ryan, with the 5th year, this year, being year to date. Which one is Ryan, and who are the other two with their first 5 full seasons’ worth of QB ratings?
86.5 87.8 71.2
85.7 87.7 90.7
85.9 80.9 94.7
92.6 91.0 84.1
92.3 90.5 88.8
phil
December 18th, 2011
9:08 pm
Ryan is 40-20, not 42-20….
He missed 2 back in 09…
Regardless, at least we’re in the discussion again this year in the theoretical middle years of my life.
That wasn’t the case until I was 41 yrs old….long time coming.
I want a title badly though!
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
9:08 pm
JSS . . trust me I’m not harping on this although it may come off that way in blog. But I went back to the Denver game and read Recap / Box Score (ESPN). Now, I know stats can sometimes not reflect game. I can’t recall this one very well, so if it was a dominant performance by Broncos, it would not be reflected in stats. Very close. Actually the Falcs lead in most, 1st downs, yards passing and russhing was even – Denver +10 yds, Time of Poss. Falcs had it for 7 1/2 minutes more . . .but not in the all important final score. Again, I know sometimes stats can “tell a lie”. I do have a vague recollection of that being a very frustrating game . . .but that is vague.
old man
December 18th, 2011
9:08 pm
One of the three QBs below is the QB rating for each of the first 5 years for Ryan, with the 5th year, this year, being year to date. Which one is Ryan, and who are the other two with their first 5 full seasons’ worth of QB ratings?
86.5 87.8 71.2
85.7 87.7 90.7
85.9 80.9 94.7
92.6 91.0 84.1
92.3 90.5 88.8
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
9:08 pm
JSS, I never begrudge the Saints anything. I think they are an elite team, with elite players, and I’m not confident the Falcons will win on the 26th or in the playoffs…although I wouldn’t discount it.
But for you to seize on that game today and call it a statement is just absolutely mind boggling. I used the Falcons/Carolina game as a comparison because it had some similarities.
But whatever. You get yourself all excited about the super awesome game the Saints played today if that makes you feel better about the NFL world, and your NFL world view.
Say what
December 18th, 2011
9:08 pm
@Me 8:56 pm
I’m simply pointing out, although I don’t have the stats, that the ATL O-line has been terrible at pass blocking for much of the year (Svitek has helped shore it up lately). It hasn’t ever been very good during most Ryan’s tenure, imho. Interestingly enough, Ryan’s play has improved dramatically along with the improved play of the line this year.
I saw some of the Saints game during a Christmas party today. Brees sure had tons of time to stand back threre unpressured. Just an observation.
old man
December 18th, 2011
9:09 pm
Ryan is the middle column. Brady is on the left. Peyton Manning is on the right.
JSS
December 18th, 2011
9:11 pm
And for all the heck I take here (perception wise), I always say this… You’d be crazy to bet the spread when it comes to any NFC South team when they play Tampa, home or away… That excludes the Panthers, they have some strange power over the Bucs… Everybody else, they cover or are very close to the line…
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
9:11 pm
@ORR…don’t bother with stats or facts. Denver absolutely OWNED the Falcons that game. Don’t forget, JSS watched every snap of every game that year, and algorithmically analyzed every snap in his voice-activated super-computer. Don’t argue with him!
old man
December 18th, 2011
9:13 pm
And Manning, the QB that Ryan has outplayed for 3 of his first 5 years in the league, compared to Manning’s first 5 years, is now apparently worth 14 or so wins a year.
No zip on the ball
December 18th, 2011
9:15 pm
Bill Parcells always says – “you are what your record says you are.” Ryan and the Falcons are 10th in the NFL in passing yardage and QBR. 9-6 record with 2 games to go against two teams that you are 0-2 collectively against this season.
Ryan, since 2008 is 3-12 when passing 40+ times. 2 of the wins were home wins over SF (2010) and BAL (2010). The Seattle road win this year was his first road win of his career throwing 40+ times. That, I’m afraid has to tell you something.
Also, we are still 0-2 in the post season with a risking 5th year NFL starter. I think what some are asking is this:
1. should we expect more for $72 million
2. Has this improved franchise hit a ceiling
3. Will it get any better while the rest of the NFL
JSS
December 18th, 2011
9:15 pm
The only similarities in those games were points at half in the abstract… The Saints were out gaining, outplaying and outhitting the Vikings… Yeah, they made mistakes (the fumbles), but the performance curve was huge… And from the 8 minute of the 2nd quarter unti when they called off the dogs it was ugly…
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
9:16 pm
@MB, not to harp on this, but what you voiced about the run generally and Turner specifically seems to be a widespread feeling.
Yes, Turner is 3rd in yards. However, if you take the top 30 running backs in the NFL in terms of yards, Turner is a whopping 25th in YPC.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
9:18 pm
ijonathan . . .it makes me think of the Ravens and a little of the Packer regular season games last year. This may cause a disturbance in the force . . .but I thought we owned them those games . . . . .but they somehow found a way to make it close. I know this one opens me up to a lot of criticism, or the old Falcs don’t play a complete game. I thought in those cases they did. They owned those teams enough early and then owned them again at the end when needed:)
old man
December 18th, 2011
9:19 pm
I like Turner fine. But I would sure change tailbacks before I changed quarterbacks.
JSS
December 18th, 2011
9:19 pm
See ORR, this has become a recurring problem… He mistake our discussion as argument… Of course, we know better… And ijonathan… I wouldn’t waste a good algorithm on this mess… But I’ve 96% percent of every game since 2004…
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
9:19 pm
Yes JSS, it is much more impressive for the Saints to pour it on in a game they were already leading against a non-division rival, quitting Vikings squad with Christian Ponder throwing high, wide and in the dirt…than for the Falcons to come back from a big deficit, on the road, against a division rival with Superman at QB.
Tell me how I’m wrong.
Unless you want to finally admit that Ponder is better than Newton.
The Boss
December 18th, 2011
9:20 pm
“JSS” and “72 Million Bust” :
Two sad little f’ers. Why do some of you even bother replying to any of their drivel? Same old stale arguments. “Bust” shows up only after his dream boy MV returns. Go away guys. No one who has a real life gives a crap what you type.
To everyone else, Support YOUR team. Enjoy wins, get angry after losses, but life goes on. It’s a damn game guys! Going back and forth comparing losses , wins, etc. What a bunch of 4th grade childish BullSh1t!
You guys make reading these blogs a total bore.
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
9:21 pm
You’re 96% of what?
BulldogBen
December 18th, 2011
9:22 pm
Uh, let’s win a playoff game first. I mean, yeah, you’re right, Trent Dilfer won a freaking ring.
Bottom line, Ryan is a good, not great, QB which is fine. That still doesn’t put is in the top 5 or 6 teams currently favored ahead of us to win the Super Bowl.
Kobe Bryant's divorce lawyer
December 18th, 2011
9:23 pm
If they Falcons lose by two TD’s on Monday night, Ryan lovers will blame Murlarky, the defense, the o-line, and/or the receivers. It’s never Ryan’s fault. If Ryan just had a bettert 0-line, better receivers, a better defense and a better offensive coordinator, they swear he would lead the Falcons to a Super Bowl. Nevermind the fact that the Falcons have the second rated defense in ALL of the NFC, good for ninth in the NFL, the 3rd leading rusher (Turner) and a receiver who ranks 6th in catches (White). Nope… Ryan just doesn’t have the pieces around him like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.
Najeh Davenpoop
December 18th, 2011
9:24 pm
Sure, Matt Ryan is good enough to win a Super Bowl. So are about 15-20 other QBs, including two or three who are going to be drafted in April. The idea that only elite QBs win championships is a myth perpetuated by the media. Put enough great players around a QB and you can win a Super Bowl. Ask Trent Dilfer.
phil
December 18th, 2011
9:25 pm
Boss – please go away….you are what you type, you doof.
Release Ray Lewis!
Kobe Bryant's divorce lawyer
December 18th, 2011
9:27 pm
You guys make reading these blogs a total bore.
———–
No one is forcing you…
JSS
December 18th, 2011
9:27 pm
And “Throttled” is not “owned” When shut down a team for well over 60% of a game and there only three drives of the 2nd half end in 148 total yards in the entire half with a INT, one TD, and last drive you turn the ball over on downs to lost the game… You were throttled…
But here’s a better one from 08 but I generally don’t like to bring up road games when talking about the Falcons because it has been the bug-a-boo big time, especially against quality teams… Go look up that egg they laid in Tampa…
phil
December 18th, 2011
9:27 pm
I don’t want to win a playoff game.
I want to win the NFC championship at a bare minimum and preferably a super bowl…
Fire FG in the meantime!
Ryan > Tebow / Brees
December 18th, 2011
9:28 pm
Ryan is better than Tebow or Brees and will prove it this year in the playoffs—Ryan will light it up against New Orleans—book it.
No zip on the ball
December 18th, 2011
9:28 pm
@ old man -
Same drill….Which one is Ryan
Post season Games…………..19…….0………7
Post-season WINS…………….14…….0………4
SB Rings………………………….3……..0………1
Brady on the left. Eli on the right.
Mark Bradley
December 18th, 2011
9:28 pm
Ryan is 42-20, and that’s counting the two playoff losses.
He was 11-6 in 2008, 9-5 in 2009 (with the two missed starts, both losses) and 13-4 last season. He’s 9-5 in this one.
Najeh Davenpoop
December 18th, 2011
9:29 pm
In fact, I’ll go a step further — the idea that wins and losses are a meaningful way to judge a quarterback is another myth perpetuated by the media. Wins and losses don’t mean anything more for a QB than they do for a pitcher in baseball.
Joe Tess Fish House
December 18th, 2011
9:30 pm
Matt Ryan is just anoter looser fist round draft bust. So waht he has a big game against a loosing team like Jax he is supposed 2. He trhow 2 many INTS that caused them a lot of wins.
Mark Bradley
December 18th, 2011
9:30 pm
Well, in this case it’s a myth also perpetuated by the Falcons’ head coach.
phil
December 18th, 2011
9:30 pm
I guess that’s right, Mark. My brain is locked down, I guess…
phil
December 18th, 2011
9:32 pm
I’m tired….
That last post sounds moronic…
Then again, most of my posts are moronic, though not in the same way as many around here.
Did i just see emotion on the Norv Turner face? Shocker…
phil
December 18th, 2011
9:34 pm
Amen, Davenpoop…
And joe tess…you need to check into a mental health facility immediately…
JSS
December 18th, 2011
9:35 pm
At ORR…
That is why the Denver game sticks out… That game looks even on paper, but when dig down and see that the majority of the Falcons 1st downs came on two drives in the 1st half… The 2nd half, they only touched it 3 (yes 3 times)… The results were 31, 77 (the lone drive), and panic drive that closed the game 41 yards…
phil
December 18th, 2011
9:36 pm
Ryan is certainly a top third QB in the league…
We could easily win a SB with him IF AND ONLY IF the pieces around him perform too…
Ryan doesn’t play D…
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
9:38 pm
ijonathan – I do concur that JSS and I do have discussions and not arguments. And often we are both trying to discuss the other into our respective corners of thought.
phil
December 18th, 2011
9:38 pm
That Denver game 3 yrs ago was painful to watch…Denver did dominate us as I recall, yet but for the late drop, we still win the game.
The miracle Chicago win that yr remains a great memory.
Philip Rivers is an elite QB because his name is Philip…