Is Matt Ryan the NFL’s best? Nope. Is he good enough? Yep
Here we have an actual picture of an icecap. Get it? (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Fair’s fair. If we criticize Matt Ryan for not throwing the best deep ball and for authoring a tepid start to this season — and we have on both counts — we must also say this: The guy’s got it going now. (Maybe not on the deep pass, but on everything else.)
Matt Ryan through the first seven games of 2011: Nine touchdown passes, eight interceptions, a yards-per-pass average of 6.68 and a 79.5 passer rating.
Matt Ryan through the next seven games of 2011: Seventeen touchdown passes, four interceptions, a yards-per-pass average of 7.96 and a 101.5 passer rating.
It’s not as if Ryan is throwing more, or even more accurately. His totals for attempts and completions from those first seven games to the past seven are almost identical. What’s different if the effect. By whatever means — slightly deeper throws, more yards-after-catch — the Falcons have become more pass-productive.
Numbers geeks insist the single most important stat in football is yards per attempt, and through seven games the Falcons’ YPA was pedestrian. Now it meets NFL requirements. Through seven games Ryan hadn’t had much of a season, but he’s having one now. He’s on pace to set personal bests for yardage and touchdowns, and he’s 0.5 off his best seasonal passer rating.
In sum, the chilliness of Matty Ice has yielded to a warming trend. We nitpick the guy to shreds — I’m as guilty as anyone — but in the carping we sometimes miss the bigger picture.
Is Ryan among the NFL’s five best quarterbacks? No. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning comprise a front four unto themselves, and Ben Roethlisberger’s two Super Bowl rings make him No. 5.
Is Ryan among the NFL’s 10 best quarterbacks? Absolutely. Behind the top five, I’d put him in the second tier of four more or less alongside Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco. (Who fills out the top 10? Maybe Tony Romo. Maybe Matt Schaub or Matthew Stafford. Maybe, in a different year, Michael Vick.)
Here are the other salient numbers regarding Ryan — 42-20. That’s the Falcons’ record in games he has started. That’s a winning percentage of .677, and it puts him in high company. Brady and Roethelisberger have won at a higher rate, and so has Rodgers, if barely. (He was 44-21 entering Sunday’s game.) But that .667 beats the great Peyton Manning’s career winning percentage, which is .661.
And here you’re saying: Peyton’s career record was skewed by the 3-13 of his rookie season. That’s true, but Ryan was drafted by a team that had gone 4-12 the year before and was working under a new coach. The 2008 Falcons were a prime candidate to go 3-13, but their new quarterback didn’t let them. The 2008 Falcons went 11-5 instead and made the playoffs, and they haven’t had a losing season under Ryan (or Mike Smith).
In a weird way, Ryan’s rookie season has jaundiced our view. If he was that good that soon, we all wondered, how much better would he be given another couple of years? We’ve gotten our answer: Not all that much better. He was tough and polished from the start, and he’s tough and polished now. His completion percentage is actually slightly lower in Year 4 than in Year 1, and so is his yards-per-attempt. But he’s still winning, and as Smith noted after the Minnesota game: “That’s the only number that matters for a quarterback.”
A few weeks ago Jim Trotter of Sports Illustrated examined the career path of four NFL quarterbacks who had early success — Ryan, Flacco, Mark Sanchez of the Jets and Josh Freeman of the Buccaneers — and wondered if, because they played in sophisticated college offenses, they arrived in the NFL “with less room to grow.” Thomas Dimitroff, the Falcons’ general manager, offered Trotter this rather fascinating quote:
There are some very valid levels below that elite [quarterback] level that can allow organizations to be successful and make runs at Super Bowls. Everyone needs to understand that … They don’t have to necessarily [have] the elite quarterback of the league to be successful as a team.
Some might interpret that as Dimitroff saying the man he drafted with his first pick as GM will never be as good as Rodgers or Brees or Brady or Peyton M., but his greater point was: Does it matter? Eli Manning has won as many Super Bowls as his big brother. Brad Johnson won as many Super Bowls as Brett Favre. The key question to ask of an NFL quarterback: Can this guy win a championship?
The Falcons have Matt Ryan. He might not be the best there is, but he’s plenty good enough. He can win a championship. He’ll win a playoff game, and maybe more than one, next month.
By Mark Bradley
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389 comments Add your comment
OldTimer
December 18th, 2011
5:51 pm
The QB position is good, if the rest of the guys step up we got this on lock.
Me
December 18th, 2011
5:59 pm
You want to know why people are so pessimistic when it comes to the Falcons and Matt Ryan? The Carolina Panthers, with their rookie QB (Cam Newton), beat the Texans today–in Texas–by two touchdowns. The Falcons and Mr. “Elite” Matt Ryan lost to the Texans, playing a 3rd string QB, and only scored 10 pts.
dawg4u
December 18th, 2011
6:00 pm
I don’t even think that Matt Ryan is the best qb the Falcons have had. My vote would go to Steve Bartkowski. Ryan would rank along side Chris Chandler and Mike Vick. That was a good point though that TD made – you really don’t need to have a super elite qb to compete for a Super Bowl. I believe that if Trent Dilfer, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams, Eli Manning and Jim McMahon can lead their teams to Super bowls then so can Ryan because he is arguably just as good if not better than those on the list mentioned.
Samuel L. Jackson
December 18th, 2011
6:10 pm
so much for the Vikings beating “the overrated Saints”…. lmao you clown ass dirty bird fans will never learn. Whipping a sorry Jax team doesn’t mean you have “arrived” or ready to go on a run. It means you did what you are supposed to do. Drew Brees OWNS the falcons.
10-2 against the dirty birds… don’t say I didn’t tell you so
Gregory
December 18th, 2011
6:11 pm
Dawg4U, you little idiot, NAME THE QB that has led the Falcons to 4 CONSECUTIVE WINNING SEASONS….Ryan is 42-20 in his career as a starting QB. 42 wins in 4 seasons. You do the math dumb butt. Matt Ryan will go down as THE best Falcon QB to suit up. He’ll also be a HOFamer. Maybe not with big, eye popping numbers, but he’ll win a Super Bowl. It’s his intangibles that make him great. Something you just can’t coach. You all want to look at numbers, but look at what he brings to the table. His smarts, his will to win.
Gregory
December 18th, 2011
6:12 pm
Sam L. Jackson, I’m sorry but are the Vikings “Great” or even “good”? You beat a sorry ass Vikings team that owns a 2-12 record. Good thing you didn’t lose, or that would have been the 2nd 2 win team you would have lost to.
Tybee island
December 18th, 2011
6:14 pm
He has the tools and it factor. Just needs to work on the little details.
For more info on tybee island vacations: http://www.sandysbytheshore.
Gregory
December 18th, 2011
6:14 pm
It’s funny how Aint fans want to trash us for beating the Jaguars like we did, but they beat the hapless Vikings and they’re “kings of the world”. GTFOutta here. Dumbazzes. The Jags have a better record than the Vikes last time I checked. Don’t be hypocritical. If it’s not ok for us to beat up on less fortunate teams, then it’s not ok for you. GTFO.
"Chef" Tim Dix
December 18th, 2011
6:14 pm
He’s second teir top 10, somewhere after six, that spot has to be occupied by Eli.
He has a ring.
willie
December 18th, 2011
6:19 pm
I agree 100% with the way you ranked the top 10 QBs. After those top 5, there is a clear drop and I wouldn’t take any of the others over Ryan. Stay hot, Falcons!
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
6:21 pm
Me . . ..slightly confused. So the Falcons beat the Panthers twice, but you use a victory by the Panthers over Texans as a reason to detract. I’ve never been one to compare games played by two different teams. There are various factors that come into each individual game. So just because the Saints lose to the at the time winless Rams, I don’t put any weight into that game having a factor on how the Saints and Falcons play each other.
Me
December 18th, 2011
6:31 pm
@Once Recent Reader,
I agree you can’t always compare games played by two different teams. But, I still think worthy of discussion considering Cam is rookie QB and the Panthers put up 28 pts today. The Falcons could only muster 10 points with Matt Ryan and Ryan is supposed to be a a top ten QB. I also think it’s worth mentioning that the Falcons have lost to every playoff team they have faced this season. As a season ticket holder, I want the Falcons to be successful just as much as the next fan, but I refuse to support this team with blind optimism.
duronimo
December 18th, 2011
6:31 pm
Ryan not the best deep passer and for most of the year has not been hitting his receivers in stride on shorter routes. But that’s changing. The pendulum is swinging in a very positive way. He’s playing better. Number 11 starting to take some short stuff to the house.
Mr. Charlie
December 18th, 2011
6:32 pm
Next week you can see an elite QB in action. Brees….Drew Brees.
Yankee
December 18th, 2011
6:37 pm
Ryan isn’t even the best QB in the division, much less the league. Only a scribbler for a cheap rag would entertain such a bizarre notion. The same cretin thinks Smith is the best Falcons coach ever, too.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
6:41 pm
ME . .I understand, but still don’t agree with using that argument. Teams play differently against other Teams. Players have bad games. I think the Falcons could have done better against Texans, but was not to be for various factors. Who knows what Texans were feeling today. If I were to be an oddsmaker taking educated guesses, I would assume they were much more into the playing the Falcons that week than Panthers this week. That was a big game with two teams playing pretty darn well the past several weeks. Hey, that’s just a guess on my part too. So how would you equate Rogers and Packers against the Chiefs today?? Or back to that Rams game against the Saints. Things happen. Two big weeks left. We’ll see what happens.
Next
December 18th, 2011
6:49 pm
No he’s not good enough. He has a weak arm. Get an arm like brees or rodgers and then yes. You and schultz keep writing these falcon pump articles. You got excited by a meaningless win over a lousy jax team. You’ll look like the clueless fools you are when N.O. wins by 20
ST
December 18th, 2011
6:51 pm
Schedule has been much easier the last 7 games. Duh
Paddy
December 18th, 2011
6:53 pm
Yankee……you ain’t from round here are you? No wonder folks don’t care for your kind much!
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
6:56 pm
@Next, are you really equating the “arms” of Rodgers and Brees? LOL, layoff the homemade shine, man.
Gregory
December 18th, 2011
6:57 pm
New Orleans wins by 20? Tell me the last matchup where the Saints beat the Falcons by 20 points and I’ll go away for good.
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
6:59 pm
It’s cute and almost adorable to watch the Taint trolls come on here, with their chest all puffed up, after beating the vi-queens.
Skeezix
December 18th, 2011
7:07 pm
Rodgers and Brady are the best. I really don’t know where Ryan ranks–top 10 somewhere.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:09 pm
Yankee . . but that is exactly what M Bradley wrote. Brees, Brady, Rogers, Manning (when playing) in a league of their own . . and Big Ben almost there. Then the next grouping, where he placed Bradley. So did you read the article??? Even the most ardent Ryan supporters understand he’s not in that league now . . .might never quite get there, but he has done well for the Falcs . . …..and yes we know they have not won in the Playoffs to this date.
Me
December 18th, 2011
7:10 pm
@Once Recent Reader
When the Rams beat the Saints it was early in the season. Every game is important, but early in the season it’s not unusual for teams to get caught looking ahead. The Packers have already secured a playoff spot and the their division, so losing today was not big deal. The Falcons; however, were fighting for their playoff lives against Houston and yet they only scored 10pts and lost to a 3rd string QB. But like you said, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how everything plays out.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:10 pm
I meant “where he placed Ryan” . . .not Bradley. Although I’m sure M Bradley wouldn’t mind being in that next tier of QBs:)
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:14 pm
ME . . . ?????? You mean the Pack did not care about this game today?????? Texans were hot. The game against Falcons was a big game for the team and fans. I can’t get into their minds, but can only assume . .they assumed the Panthers would not be a problem. It happens. Even the Titans looked pretty good against the very hot Saints last week . . .and had the game for the taking if that pass in endzone (2nd last play) was a couple more inches ahead. I’m not defending anyone, just truly can’t figure out why folks match how teams play against other teams. Again . . .do you honestly believe this game meant nothing to the Pack?? But I will say, they may have had the same thoughts about Chiefs that I assume Texans had about Panthers.
JSS
December 18th, 2011
7:17 pm
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
6:59 pm
“It’s cute and almost adorable to watch the Taint trolls come on here, with their chest all puffed up, after beating the vi-queens.”
No more than when those pious Falcons trolls extoll their prowess… So much fir their “inconsistencies” on the road that the cretins were so vocal about… 8 more days of pointless insults and conjecture… Now spin that one, you fancy yourself the blog version of George Will… Prove it!
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:18 pm
Nice comeback by Lions. Falcons did have some help in Wild Card spot today with Bears and Giants losing . . . .would have been nice to go up one on the Lions too. But the Wildcard spot is the Falcs to win or lose. Could they have clinched a spot today??
Realist
December 18th, 2011
7:20 pm
So, Me, everyone else can have a let down, and you come up with an excuse. Falcons have a bad outing against a great D, and we are just awful. You aren’t close to making sense. It’s the NFL man… no one wins them all, as the Packers proved today. BTW, the Pack was still playing for home field advantage. Still, the Falcons are in great shape in the playoff race today. We are in if we win either of our last two games, and can actually clinch before the Saints game even kicks off with a few results between now and then.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:20 pm
JSS Saints definitely on a tear. Big game next week. These teams have played each other very tightly, at least the past two regular seasons. Should be a fun week on the blogs:)
JSS
December 18th, 2011
7:23 pm
@ O.R.R….
It could be fun, but it is just going to be the usual… Borderline silly…
Samuel L. Jackson
December 18th, 2011
7:24 pm
Gregory,
The Saints beat the Falcons in 07 34-14. Please go away you jaded clown.
I wasn’t talking up the Saints win and putting down the Falcons. I was saying the Falcons did what they were supposed to do. That doesn’t mean they are going to win the superbowl as some of the delusional posters on this blog would have you believe (yourself included). Beating a bad Jax team is nothing to pound your chest about, just like I didn’t mention the Saints beating the Vikings being a big deal other than to say the Saints won.
Saints fans brag over Atlanta because you have been OWNED since Brees arrived with the Saints. It has nothing to do with other opponents. 9-2 and about to be 10-2 speaks for itself.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:25 pm
Yeah, I forgot to use my typical ” “s around the word fun.
JSS
December 18th, 2011
7:27 pm
Three teams have made road statements so far today… New England, the Lions, and even against the lowly and bad Vikings, the Saints… They did pretty much everything they wanted after the first half mistakes…
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
7:29 pm
I agree JSS, I’m going to try to stay away for the next week, lots of pointless chest thumping and endless predictions rooted more in emotion than objective reality. Both the Falcons and Saints did what they should have done with their respective opponents. And they typically play close, hard fought games against each other. Saints should be favored, at home. But the birds have 6 very solid quarters of “momentum.” We’ll see.
Boy, Stafford had a game today.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:30 pm
They sure did. Would have like to be the only Wildcard Team sitting at 9/5. But as mentioned, the Falcs have destiny in their own hands. One very tough game ahead, and one they should take. No givens!
Gregory
December 18th, 2011
7:31 pm
Sam Jackson, was Ryan here in 07? Oh ok.
JSS
December 18th, 2011
7:31 pm
Too much of that silliness like devolve into about their college teams… I’ve never said the Saints will bury the Falcons, but Peyton has been like Swiss Bank against the last three Atlanta coaches…
Gregory
December 18th, 2011
7:33 pm
If the Bears and Giants lose next week, the Falcons would clinch before they even played the Saints. At least a 6th seed. If the Lions, Bears, and Giants lose the Falcons would be in the playoffs.
Samuel L. Jackson
December 18th, 2011
7:33 pm
Saints will complete the season sweep on MNF. The Saints lowest point output of the year in the Superdome is 27. The Falcons will have to score at least that many to win. IT AIN’T HAPPENING!!!!
Last time Roddy White ran his mouth about how the Falcons were going to win, how did that work out? Oh that’s right, the Saints came into the GA Dome and served the Falcons an ‘L’.
TELL ME WHAT DO FALCONS DO?!?!?!?!?!?!
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH LAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY EGGS!!!
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:34 pm
Just thinking. Other than that Green Bay play-off debacle, how many games have there been since 2008 when they did not have some sort of chance in the end? Chicago this year, Eagles games (2?), I guess we can say the Pack game this year too. Even when they’ve played below fan expectations, they’ve often still had a chance. Not sure what that means.
Gregory
December 18th, 2011
7:34 pm
Pretty much the Falcons are going to make the playoffs, it’s what they do while there that matters. Personally, I want the Saints in the 1st round. We play them so tough it could go either way. The look on Drew Brees’ face today after the Vikes game when he was being interviewed was full of dread when the reporter mentioned the Falcons.
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
7:34 pm
C’mon JSS, I feel like Pacino in GodFather III…I was just about to shut down when I saw you claimed the Saints win today was one of three “statement” games by road teams. What? That needs some ’splainin.
Oh, and yes, apparently I was off base in your mysterious work. You aren’t so mysterious after all, if one just bothers to make a few clicks. Or in your case, you what, say “click” into your 21st century voice recognition software?
JSS
December 18th, 2011
7:36 pm
Denver in ‘08 just throttled them…
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:36 pm
Gregory, well maybe Brees is just a smart person . . and a good actor:) I’m sure he respects the Falcons team/talent . . . . .I’m also sure he does not dread the Falcons.
Samuel L. Jackson
December 18th, 2011
7:38 pm
Gregory,
You didn’t keep your promise about going away. In your statement you didn’t say anything about Ryan being a member of the team. All you said was to show you the last time the Falcons lost to the Saints by 20 and you’ll go away. Your coach choked just like Matt Ryan does in the matchup in the GA Dome this year.
Sean Payton has gotten in Mike Smith’s head because he consistently whips him when it counts. Enjoy Marty Schottenheimer 2.0 and early exits from the playoffs
JSS
December 18th, 2011
7:38 pm
That was the 2nd best offensive half of football that they have played on the road in 3 years… That is not a pro Saints statement, they were Green Bay on January 15th good in that 2nd half….
ijonathan
December 18th, 2011
7:38 pm
Oh, and everyone who is dismissing Ryan’s stats/record of late given the strength of opponents, check out Turner’s production against those same opponents.
Once Recent Reader
December 18th, 2011
7:40 pm
JSS . . just went back and looked. That was 24-20 win by Broncos. Falcs seemed to have lead but lost it in the 4th. But I did find they lost 24-9 to both the Bucs and the Panthers early in the season.