Could mighty LSU wind up in a non-BCS bowl? Er … maybe
Don't worry, Leslie: Your darn strong team won't fall as far as the Chick-fil-A Bowl. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Raging consensus holds that LSU will play for the national title no matter what it does Saturday and that the Tigers’ opponent Jan. 9 will again be Alabama. But there’s a slight — slight, let me emphasize — possibility the team that has been No. 1 in every week of the BCS rankings might land in a non-BCS bowl. (And here let me thank esteemed colleague Kevin Whaley for bringing this to my attention.)
Say LSU loses to Georgia by three touchdowns. Say No. 3 Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma by three touchdowns. (By way of comparison, Georgia is No. 14 in the BCS standings to OU’s No. 10.) Say there’s a major Oklahoma State groundswell in the human polls. Say LSU slides to No. 3 in the final rankings behind Oklahoma State and Alabama, the latter of which cannot lose this weekend because it isn’t playing.
Know where LSU, the team that has been the nation’s best from September through November, would be headed? To Orlando for the non-BCS Capital One Bowl. Or to Dallas for the non-BCS Cotton Bowl.
I say again: I don’t think that will happen. Given the Tigers’ strength of schedule — three victories against opponents in the BCS top 10 — and glowing SEC profile, it’s hard to imagine them suffering a Boise State-like fate. (One loss and you’re relegated to the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.) But if Georgia beats LSU, it goes to the BCS-affiliated Sugar Bowl as SEC champ. If Alabama stays No. 2 or ascends to No. 1, it’s in the BCS title game. And the only way a conference can send a third team to a BCS game is if two of them are playing for the national title and neither is the conference champion.
I say yet again: I don’t think that will happen. Should LSU lose, the debate would become: Who are the two best one-loss teams? At this moment, LSU would figure to have the most impressive body of one-loss work, but the voting won’t be done at this moment. Balloting — and computer-tabulating — will occur late Saturday night, and voters tend to rely most on what they saw last. And what if they just saw the Tigers lose 35-14 to a team that, according to the BCS rankings, is the SEC’s fifth-best?
Never forget that this is the BCS, where weird happens. In 2003 unbeaten and top-ranked Oklahoma lost by 28 points to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship, and somehow the Sooners stayed No. 1 in the BCS rankings. In 2007 once-beaten and top-ranked Missouri lost by 21 points to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship and didn’t even wind up in a BCS game. (But Kansas, which Missouri had beaten two weeks earlier and which finished two spots behind the Tigers in the BCS rankings, did. Georgia wasn’t the only team that got short shrift in ‘07.)
For the fourth or fifth time: When the standings are announced Sunday night, LSU and Alabama figure to be Nos. 1 and 2 (or 2 and 1) even if Georgia topples the Tigers. And that would look funny, too. A national championship game would pair a team that didn’t win its conference against one that didn’t win its division? But that’s the BCS: It’s always going to look funny. Smell funny, too.
By Mark Bradley
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595 comments Add your comment
meh
November 30th, 2011
12:45 pm
I’d kinda like that scenario to pan out just to see all the chaos that what ensue in the land of BCS.
Perro de Perdedor
November 30th, 2011
12:45 pm
I understand that we can’t win. I just don’t want anyone else to win either. That’s what I’m talkin’ about!
WOOF WOOF WOOF!!!
KJ
November 30th, 2011
12:48 pm
LOL @ the idiot trolls saying UGA has “zero chance”. They’re what, 10 point underdogs? How many points was Oklahoma State favored by over Iowa State? How did that turn out?
If the UGA that throttled Auburn shows up, it’ll be close. If the UGA that nearly laid an egg against Vandy shows up, it’ll be ugly. Simple as that.
Red&Black
November 30th, 2011
12:48 pm
@give me a break
Please give US a break and zip the old pie hole. Sorry your team is sitting home this weekend, but that is life.
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
12:49 pm
Hey – say what you want haters – UGA fans are not being arrogant. We know we have a really tough game and are the dogs…only a couple of nuts really calling a W.
But we are IN THE GAME …. AND GLAD TO BE THERE. Got a better chance than anyone else other than LSU of winning the SEC!!!!
AND IT WOULD BE GREAT FOR ALL IF WE COULD PULL THE WIN OUT AND BUST UP THE BCS!!! EVERYONE SHOULD BE BEHIND THE DAWGS IF NOT FOR THIS REASON ONLY!
Bug Zapper
November 30th, 2011
12:51 pm
Red & Black,
LOL! I agree
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
12:51 pm
Then UGA would have one more victory but a weaker schedule. Still didn’t beat a top 10 team.
Joe
November 30th, 2011
12:52 pm
i’m here to look at braves stuff but came across this article so i figured i’d comment. Bama is one of the 2 best teams in the country. They deserve just as much as any other team to play in the championship game. Who cares if they didn’t win their conference. St louis didn’t win their divison, neither did Green Bay and yet no one was crying about those championships.
Body of work – besides LSU, who has really played anyone? No one’s scheduled looks all that tougher than anyone elses.
Bama lost at home – yes. I agree. But if you ask me would i rather lose at home by three in ot to the number 1 team in teh country or on the road to iowa state who were underdogs by 27 or something. I think the LSU lost is more forgiveable. Stanford lost bad to Oregon (so not a conference champ either). VT lost to clemson earlier in the year badly, luckily for them they get another chance. All bama is asking for is another chance.
This system isn’t perfect but no system is. No matter where you draw the line, someone will always complain. If you only do four teams then #5 complains. If you do 8, do you let non conference champs play. This is what we have right now.
Bama LSU will be a good game. Better than the first. (Which as a bama fan I thought was plenty exciting). Its hard to live up to that much hype.
Bulldog59
November 30th, 2011
12:52 pm
Will we ever see the day where common sense prevails? Not the answer but something like…..
The second weekend in December, after the conference championships are decided, BCS #1 plays #8, #2 plays #7, #3 plays #6, and #4 plays #5. The BCS SHOWDOWN WEEK. Now we’re down to our true final 4 by bowl season. Surely the bowls and the networks would make this profitable for everyone.
On a rotating schedule, the 4 major bowls share the playoff. Maybe this year Sugar and Fiesta get the final 4 and the Orange gets the BCSCG. The bowl left out (this year the Rose Bowl) gets BCS #9 vs #10 or their pick of the 4 losers from mid-December. Next year, everyone moves up a notch in the bowl rotation, top bowl goes to the bottom of the list.
Yes, there are multiple problems with this, (extra games for teams, extra travel, MONEY distribution, etc.) but it can all be worked out.
Dumb & Dumber
November 30th, 2011
12:52 pm
So, you’re saying we have a chance?
Awesome!!!
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
12:53 pm
Murray completed passes and Washington didn’t. Good game.
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
12:54 pm
YOU HATERS –
UGA FANS ARE NOT BEING ARROGANT.
We know we are the dog and it would be a hudge upset. No problem, we’re just glad to be in the game.
EVERYONE SHOULD BE BEHIND THE DAWGS JUST TO BUST THE BCS SYSTEM.
We have no way of laying for a NC this year but a W would put us all a step closer to a playoff.
GO DAWGS
Play Me Off!
November 30th, 2011
12:55 pm
@Bulldog59
The only problem that I see is that it still leaves Georgia out of the picture.
Oh well… Back to the old drawing board.
OneMoreDawg
November 30th, 2011
12:55 pm
When Dawgs win Saturday they will be crowned BEST in the SEC…period. The SEC has a definite formula for determining the conference champion – the BCS should take note and make changes to do the same.
Play Me Off!
November 30th, 2011
12:56 pm
@OneMoreDawg
I agree. Letting the two best teams play for the NC just sucks!
Tarlie Chrippi
November 30th, 2011
12:56 pm
@ Alphare —
You’re a moron. Go have a drink and pee on something with Stephen and Coach Mangus.
Play Me Off!
November 30th, 2011
12:58 pm
UGA won the SEC East fair & square. We don’t care if we lost to the best team in our division. The point is MOOT!
Mike Bobo 17 INT
November 30th, 2011
1:00 pm
Mark, with all due respect LSU is going to drill UGA, then play for a national title against Alabama. Even if, and I mean a BIG if LSU were to lose to UGA, then it would be by 3 or less points, which would still put LSU in the title.
Only if UGA blows LSU out of the SEC title game, and OSU wins big, then LSU might be demoted to a smaller bowl game. However, LSU already has an 11 point line over UGA, and UGA’s dream season is going to come to a grinding halt this week.
Steve Spppppurrrrrierrrrr
November 30th, 2011
1:01 pm
Dang I wish I could be in the Dome come this Weekend. I shoulda done a better coaching job.
Mike Bobo 17 INT
November 30th, 2011
1:01 pm
Stress test coming this weekend for UGA…….chances are good that they will fail, but CMR will get another 2 to 3 years on his contract. Bottom line, CMR is good, but CMR and UGA are not national title material.
WDE
November 30th, 2011
1:03 pm
@GIVE ME A BREAK now which top 10 team did SC beat again?
please...
November 30th, 2011
1:04 pm
The honey badger becomes extinct saturday night!!
please...
November 30th, 2011
1:05 pm
H
BIGMIKE
November 30th, 2011
1:05 pm
You know what the greatest thing about a true Championship game is???? I.E., UGA vs LSU FOR THE SEC CHAMPIONSHIP….It’s fair and there is no guess work involved. There WILL be a winner determined on the FIELD. So it doesn’t matter if you think UGA can beat LSU or you don’t think UGA can beat LSU. What matters is do the HAIRY DAWGS believe they can beat LSU. Then go do it!!!! And to hell with the POLLS.
The Real SOS
November 30th, 2011
1:05 pm
Nah. I tried that last year. I don’t want no more of that. Why do you think I lost to Aubie? You really think they’re good enough to beat my team?
HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA!
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
1:06 pm
We were comparing LSU’s schedule wih UGA’s.
OUTBACK BOWL is a great Major Bowl ? Huh ?
November 30th, 2011
1:07 pm
No. LSU is not ending up in a non-BCS Bowl. Jeez Louise. We are. The Outback Bowl. What is all this junk ?
The Real SOS
November 30th, 2011
1:07 pm
At least we’ll be healthy for our bowl game. Dawgs are gonna need a lot of Advil after next Saturday.
RTR22
November 30th, 2011
1:08 pm
Does MB actually get paid for writing this dribble?
The Real SOS
November 30th, 2011
1:08 pm
Actually, I see Georgia in the Cotton Bowl.
From Where I Sit
November 30th, 2011
1:10 pm
@Play Me Off! WE?
LMAO!!!!
LSU will OWN you this weekend!!!
old yeller
November 30th, 2011
1:11 pm
Funny how all these other team’s fans show up on a UGA blog. Talk about losers…..sheesh.
Hmmmm
November 30th, 2011
1:12 pm
LSU vs BAMA is THE most profitable game that can be produced for a NC game. It is like a Home and Home in single season since the NC game is in N’awlins’ Super Dome. Everyone wants to see 1 vs 2 for the NC and Bama/LSU will be a great game…The hype will be overwhelming but you will look forward to the NC game with baited breath. UGA had a great season after dropping their first 2 games, but I DO NOT think their OL can handle LSU’s Front 7/8 for a full game. Crowell(run game) will be neutralized leaving them one dimesional, which means pin the ears back and go after Murray.
TOates
November 30th, 2011
1:13 pm
Hey Roll TIde… Here you go. You are bad mouthing UGA’s schedule, are you?
Let’s look at Alabama’s schedule verse UGA.
Common Opp:
1. Auburn
2. Mississippi
3. MState
4. Tennessee
5. Vandy
6. Florida
7. Arkansas=South Carolina
8. Penn State= Georgia Tech
9. LSU>Boise State(IMO)
10. Kent State=Coastal Carolina(?)
11. North Texas=New Mexico State(?)
12. Ga. Southern< Kentucky(You tell me)
Looks pretty damn similar to me. GTHO here, loser.
KJ
November 30th, 2011
1:14 pm
“Does MB actually get paid for writing this dribble?”
You meant drivel. Dribble is what collects on your chin when you watch your cousin undress.
The Real SOS
November 30th, 2011
1:15 pm
The over/under on Murray standing up unassisted is 2 quarters.
I’m betting on the under.
GTBob
November 30th, 2011
1:18 pm
The Outback Bowl. What is all this junk ?
UGA is better off with the Outback Bowl then the Cotton Bowl this year. Although I agree that all of the non BCS bowls are pretty useless.
timthebrave
November 30th, 2011
1:19 pm
Mark Bradley
I think LSU is guaranteed to be in the top 2. Alabama has more to be worried about because they don’t have the strength of schedule that LSU does.
freddy
November 30th, 2011
1:20 pm
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Keep dreaming.
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
1:20 pm
Wishing you much success against LSU. Represent our state well.
SteveW
November 30th, 2011
1:20 pm
I think LSU will be ranked ahead of Alabama in any scenario, seeing they won at Alabama. So I see Alabama with the most to lose in an LSU loss scenario and a OSU blowout type thing. The voters may give OSU a break, because they lost in the same weekend as the plane crash killing two Women’s basketball coaches. We’ll see.
I still say it’s LSU – ‘Bama regardless however…
7576DAWG
November 30th, 2011
1:21 pm
I have always thought the BCS was a joke . First to qualify for a bowl you should have 7 maybe even better, 8 wins. That would make the bowls interesting again. Nobody watches 90% of the bowls because only that team’s fans watches them if they have more than 5 losses, so it really means nothing to go to a bowl if you have 5 or more losses. It’s a way for the media to give back to team’s that need money for their other non profit sport’s. If you didn’t arrange for some money to go to team’s 70% of the sport’s would have to be illuminated at 70% of the colleges. Probably 90% of the women’s sports.
I think we are a better people and country with a large number of women and men sport’s at every college and if it take the MEDIA to fund that , so be it.
After all that now for the real question. Does that give the media the right to influence who go’s to which bowl? These alliances with each conference has made the bowl’s not worth even seeing. Nobody really care except for the championship game because most of the time the bowl match up’s make no sense which makes them non- interesting. When I was growing up that wasn’t the case and most of the major bowl’s were all watched with enthusiasm.
College football need’s to go to a 16 or more team playoff using the bowl’s to get to a national championship and the alliances need to be dissolved. Basketball and baseball and even 1-AA football have a playoff system. The regular season schedule need’s to be reduce back to no more than 11 games.
I love college football but the way it is now is driving a lot of fan’s away. In the 60’s and 70’s everybody use to talk about all the bowl match up’s and more importantly watch most of them. Now, the only bowl most watch is the bowl that involves their team and maybe the national title game. I can’t believe that the NCAA doesn’t see this, but then again maybe they were bought off too.
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
1:22 pm
When OSU loses or struggles with OK this weekend, it doesn’t matter what happens with the LSU-UGA game. It will be LSU-BAMA in the NC game.
The Real SOS
November 30th, 2011
1:24 pm
OSU can’t stay on the field with Oklahoma.
Then again… Oh, never mind. Showing is always better than telling. We’ll all see just how good this LSU team really is next Saturday, won’t we?
SteveW
November 30th, 2011
1:25 pm
We (UGA) will lose, and it will be because of turnovers. I like Aaron Murray, but even against Auburn, he fumbled, but it went out of bounds. Against Tech, Charles fumbles, but recovers. Malcome, Harton, look like fumbles waiting to happen. And getting back to Murray, he can take a hit better than any QB i’ve ever seen his size – see Auburn and Nick Fairley. If he stops the Interceptions, takes care of the football, and our RB’s do also – we got a real chance in this game.
FLA DAWG
November 30th, 2011
1:25 pm
Well, I hope that does happen!
My Dawgs would have a great win and LSU would know how it feels to get the shaft from The BCS like Auburn and some others have over the years.
I don’t hear many LSU fans screaming for a playoff system right now do you?
SteveW
November 30th, 2011
1:27 pm
I said we would lose in our last post – I should say that’s just my thinking – I did end the post saying if we don’t turn the ball over it’s really anybody’s game.
And if LSU really believes there in regardless of the outcome, they may not play full throttle either. I’m not counting my Dawgs out, just trying to be realistic. Hard to do as a fan sometimes.
UGA89
November 30th, 2011
1:28 pm
Alphare
Apparently you were not a football fan in 2007 when the media ( ESPN ) and Les Miles stated that a team did not deserve to play for the NC unless it won it’s conference title, thus LSU jumped over many teams to play in the title game with two loses.
Now the media ( ESPN ) are stating it is the best two teams no matter if they win a conference title.
The whole BCS system is set up and continues to be a very BAD model for producing a True Champion in College Football.
Geaux Tigers
November 30th, 2011
1:28 pm
Mark Bradley….you sir are an idiot. We are coming to the dome to take care of the puppies so get the upset out of your mind.
Delbert D.
November 30th, 2011
1:29 pm
I hope I live long enough to see a playoff between conference champions. This poll-based mythical crap has never meant a danged thing!