Could mighty LSU wind up in a non-BCS bowl? Er … maybe
Don't worry, Leslie: Your darn strong team won't fall as far as the Chick-fil-A Bowl. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Raging consensus holds that LSU will play for the national title no matter what it does Saturday and that the Tigers’ opponent Jan. 9 will again be Alabama. But there’s a slight — slight, let me emphasize — possibility the team that has been No. 1 in every week of the BCS rankings might land in a non-BCS bowl. (And here let me thank esteemed colleague Kevin Whaley for bringing this to my attention.)
Say LSU loses to Georgia by three touchdowns. Say No. 3 Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma by three touchdowns. (By way of comparison, Georgia is No. 14 in the BCS standings to OU’s No. 10.) Say there’s a major Oklahoma State groundswell in the human polls. Say LSU slides to No. 3 in the final rankings behind Oklahoma State and Alabama, the latter of which cannot lose this weekend because it isn’t playing.
Know where LSU, the team that has been the nation’s best from September through November, would be headed? To Orlando for the non-BCS Capital One Bowl. Or to Dallas for the non-BCS Cotton Bowl.
I say again: I don’t think that will happen. Given the Tigers’ strength of schedule — three victories against opponents in the BCS top 10 — and glowing SEC profile, it’s hard to imagine them suffering a Boise State-like fate. (One loss and you’re relegated to the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.) But if Georgia beats LSU, it goes to the BCS-affiliated Sugar Bowl as SEC champ. If Alabama stays No. 2 or ascends to No. 1, it’s in the BCS title game. And the only way a conference can send a third team to a BCS game is if two of them are playing for the national title and neither is the conference champion.
I say yet again: I don’t think that will happen. Should LSU lose, the debate would become: Who are the two best one-loss teams? At this moment, LSU would figure to have the most impressive body of one-loss work, but the voting won’t be done at this moment. Balloting — and computer-tabulating — will occur late Saturday night, and voters tend to rely most on what they saw last. And what if they just saw the Tigers lose 35-14 to a team that, according to the BCS rankings, is the SEC’s fifth-best?
Never forget that this is the BCS, where weird happens. In 2003 unbeaten and top-ranked Oklahoma lost by 28 points to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship, and somehow the Sooners stayed No. 1 in the BCS rankings. In 2007 once-beaten and top-ranked Missouri lost by 21 points to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship and didn’t even wind up in a BCS game. (But Kansas, which Missouri had beaten two weeks earlier and which finished two spots behind the Tigers in the BCS rankings, did. Georgia wasn’t the only team that got short shrift in ‘07.)
For the fourth or fifth time: When the standings are announced Sunday night, LSU and Alabama figure to be Nos. 1 and 2 (or 2 and 1) even if Georgia topples the Tigers. And that would look funny, too. A national championship game would pair a team that didn’t win its conference against one that didn’t win its division? But that’s the BCS: It’s always going to look funny. Smell funny, too.
By Mark Bradley
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595 comments Add your comment
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
11:52 am
UGA being in this discussion in ridiculuos. They are only saved by the division.
Dawglasville
November 30th, 2011
11:53 am
If the BCS is our truest means of getting the two best teams in the country then why is it not the truest means to decide the best team in the country. If LSU beats UGA and Bama beats LSU I still believe under the BCS system that LSU could have more points than Bama.
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
11:54 am
see how many dawg fans whining about BCS rules?
BCS changes the rules? what rules have been changed, dawg fans?
Bob LaBlah
November 30th, 2011
11:55 am
Obiously, the crack pipe is hot in the ajc sports dept.
OkieDawg
November 30th, 2011
11:59 am
If the decision makers at Georgia had not decided to play Boise State instead of Louisville, would this be a play-in game for the NC?
munsondawg
November 30th, 2011
12:00 pm
@ dirty dawg
One of the better posts today. I completely agree with you. That’s why I’m going!!!!!
daddo
November 30th, 2011
12:02 pm
Never understood just how jealous Georgia fans were of Alabama football until reading these blogs this week. Just know that in January we will be winning yet another national championship while YOU will be sitting at home, boycotting the game, dreaming of Herschel and eating clay. Now THAT’S pathetic.
UGA89
November 30th, 2011
12:03 pm
I am a UGA Grad and love SEC football, but I think something is up with the SEC and the BCS.
What happened to the old thought process of, a late season loss is worse than an early season loss.
The bigger the conferences get the more corrupt the system will become.
Make every conference have a conference championship game and only thoses teams can qualify for the National Championship.
We can’t have one standard in 2007 and then another in 2011 that says who can play for the NC!
Let’s have the NCAA do an investigation on this, Oh yeah that would be like putting the prisioners in charge of the prison. ( Which is the way it is now )
AJA
November 30th, 2011
12:04 pm
@Alphare: The answer to your question is Team B because you forgot to mention Rule No. 5: Team A has an additional conference loss because it laid an egg at home against a measly Auburn team. Team B beat that same team handily. Case closed. Better luck next time.
WDE
November 30th, 2011
12:04 pm
@Vince Drooley beat we get one before your bunch gets another..if you have one….
Andy
November 30th, 2011
12:04 pm
I do not think UGA can beat LSU. If you want to ask yourself honestly, who deserves to play LSU, Alabama or Oklahoma State(If they beat Oklahoma, a big if)then imagine this. If LSU had gone to Oklahoma State on Nov. 5th, and played, LSU would have won by 17 or more. Also, if Alabama had traveled to Iowa State to play, they would have won by 24 or more, and Iowa State probably would not have scored. You all know that is likely the truth. Even the Oklahoma State coach himself said that he would vote Alabama ahead of Oklahoma State.
THE K9 DRINK OF CHOICE
November 30th, 2011
12:05 pm
KOOLAID,KOOLAID,TASTE GREAT.KOOLAID,KOOLAID,CAN’T WAIT!!!!!
Georgia Bayou Bengal
November 30th, 2011
12:07 pm
“Say LSU loses to Georgia by three touchdowns.”
Say what?
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
12:07 pm
UGA89,
“We can’t have one standard in 2007 and then another in 2011 that says who can play for the NC”.
I don’t know what you are talking about. BCS #1 and #2 teams play for NC in 2007, and I believe it’s still #1 playing #2 in 2011.
Same standard to me. Where is another?
Perro de Perdedor
November 30th, 2011
12:09 pm
Logic and reason have a definite anti-UGA bias!
It ain’t fair!!!
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
12:09 pm
AJA,
you basically find an excuse to put your team in the title game. I can take that.
Rationale
November 30th, 2011
12:10 pm
Mark, keep the heat on. I say that Alabama cannot play in the BCS, regardless of any exception. They cannot play in that game. Not under this messed up system.
Hoopster
November 30th, 2011
12:11 pm
Mark, I can stop you at the first sentence of your second paragraph. Now….if you want to reverse the teams, that’s likely. L$U beating UGa by at least 3 touchdowns. Carry on.
VaBeachDawg
November 30th, 2011
12:11 pm
Mark, this may have been said since I don’t have time to read all the comments. The real potential loser if UGA beats LSU (and not even by a lot) is Bama. Here’s why: voters will not want to put two teams from the same conference who didn’t win the conference championship into the NC game. In deciding whether LSU or Bama should play, voters will pick LSU because they beat BAMA. Likely NC will be LSU vs. Ok. St. So…Bama goes to the Capital One bow. I’ve been saying this all week.
ARdawg
November 30th, 2011
12:11 pm
That game of the century just a few weeks ago meant nothing
AJA
November 30th, 2011
12:13 pm
Alphare, If you say so. But I don’t consider winning more games to be an excuse. It’s more akin to a qualification.
Stop and Think
November 30th, 2011
12:14 pm
1st off UGA and LSU both play in the SEC which is supposed to be the BEST conference in the nation if I’m correct. All you that say UGA played a weak schedule go back and compare UGA and LSU’s schedule. They played 6 common opponets. MSU, UK, UT, UF, Ole Miss, and Auburn. Both teams went 6-0 against these teams. LSU played Oregon (and won) UGA played Bosie which at the time both oppents were in the top 5. LSU played Northwestern State and Western Kentucky, UGA played Coastal Carolina and New Mexico State. Now LSU did play WVU (who needs help to win the BIg East), Bama and Ark (SEC West and they have to play). To me their schedules look the same.
t.saunders
November 30th, 2011
12:16 pm
For playing such a FCS powerhouse like Ga. Southern, Alabama should be sentenced to the “jack – rabbit” bowl. Why can a SEC power house play FCS teams? All of the BCS conferences do this, are they afraid to play each other? Why not give the paying customer a game where each team has 85 scholarship players.?….To hell with the BCS and ESPN….
Buckeye
November 30th, 2011
12:17 pm
LSU will make the dogs look like Ohio State against the then Urban Meyer lead Gators.
buckblue
November 30th, 2011
12:20 pm
LSU has found ways to rise to every occasion by being more physical when it has to be, more athletic when needed, and more explosive when it has the chance. The formula is simple. Don’t turn the ball over, run hard for a full four quarters, and let the defense take care of the rest. The Tiger offense has to manufacture 21 points. If it can do that, it’ll be off to the national championship with ease. However, Georgia has nothing to lose. It’s gravy time, and while winning the SEC title would sweet, there’s really no pressure and it can relax and take a few chances. The Dawgs won’t fold and they won’t get blown away, but they’re about to play the best team in America.
Prediction: LSU 34 … Georgia 16
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
12:21 pm
AJA, what more games? overall it’s the same.
Yes, SC wins more East division games, 1 more than UGA does, more importantly SC beat UGA.
But you choose to look at one number and one number only: UGA wins more conference games. If that makes you feel superior, I am OK with it.
Mount Up
November 30th, 2011
12:23 pm
I cannot believe some of the inane rhetoric being tossed around on this blog by the LSU people. Let’s start with the Ark being a top 5 team argument. Ark needed Vandy to miss a field goal to win and this qualifies them as a contender, yet UGA lets a punter make a game winning tackle and we suck. LSU couldn’t score a touchdown vs bama but Georgia Southern scored a few of them. The Miss state game was much closer than LSU fans would like to admit and UGA put up better stats against Auburn. Sure UGA has had a propensity to struggle against inferior opponents. Just because Miss state, Florida and Auburn were ranked in the top 25 when you played them doesn’t mean they were a superior team the day they took the field against LSU. Oregon, and Arkansas are no longer a top 5 team and certainly were not when you played them. West Virginia being ranked 23rd is much too high. Explain how Syracuse put up better numbers against WVU than LSU did. How in god’s name did Florida burn you for 113 yards rushing when UGA held them to -19 and that was with Brantley on the field. Tennessee rushed for 111 yards on LSU yet had -20 against UGA and Auburn only had 51 rushing yards vs UGA and they were all in garbage time. fact is ever common opponent UGA and LSU have faced, UGA’s rush defense has been as good or significantly better. LSU vs UGA at miss state (51-56) UK (89-23) Ole Miss (148-34). I am certainly not attempting to be pedantic but comparing Georgia’s performance against common opponents is a fantasy that LSU fans will hide behind until Saturday. I think UGA’s run defense is on par with BAMA and LSU and the Pass defense has grown up a lot in the past 10 games. I think someone needs to call Mr. Sheppard on the phone and say “yes punk, Jarvis is serious because he knows the stats”. Now enough of this prediction garbage, LSU is good, they better thank God bama doesn’t have a field goal kicker. Their defense has a lot of takeaways and there is no one better in special teams, but UGA will be just as impressive at stopping the RUN as anyone they have faced all year.
Buckeye
November 30th, 2011
12:24 pm
Curious, will the dogs root for Florida’s Muschamp or Ohio State in the Gator Bowl?
Urban will not be coaching the bowl game, by the way.
Perro de Perdedor
November 30th, 2011
12:25 pm
C’mon Alphare,
We have to take what we can get anyway we can get it.
If it benefits the Dawgs – it’s good. If it doesn’t – it’s cheating.
Can’t you understand that logic? It’s simple.
Contractor
November 30th, 2011
12:26 pm
I am a Gergia fan and hope we play hard and pull the upset, but even with a loss in the Championship game, there is no way LSU doesn’t make a BCS game. They know it and we know it that LSU will still be a Top 2 team despite any slip ups, and that they are one of the two best teams in the country. I understand this is just a ratings article and we’re all buying into it here, but there is no way LSU gets left out under any circumstance.
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
12:27 pm
LSU beat #3 Oregon, #2 Alabama, #3 Arkansas. UGA lost to #5 Boise. That’s the difference in their schedules.
Ron Swanson
November 30th, 2011
12:28 pm
Does anyone ever watch the Gator Bowl?
GTBob
November 30th, 2011
12:29 pm
Stop and Think, ignoring the cupcake games and common opponents, you really think a schedule with Oregon, Arkansas, Alabama, and West Virginia is equal to a schedule with Boise St, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Vandy? Give me a break.
OkieDawg
November 30th, 2011
12:30 pm
Buckeye, Under no scenario would I pull for Florida. This year, when South Carolina played Florida, I pulled for South Carolina even though a win by Florida would have put UGA in the SECCG a week earlier. I pull for Georgia and ANY team that plays Florida. And the only time I would pull for The Ohio State University is when they play Florida.
WDE
November 30th, 2011
12:31 pm
@Buckeye I will be rooting for the Gators they may be down this year but they aren’t chocked full of cheaters, and they aren’t in the little 10 .
AJA
November 30th, 2011
12:31 pm
Alphare, It doesn’t just make Georgia feel superior, it makes them superior. It also explains why SC will be in Columbus this weekend, and Georgia will be in Atlanta. But I apologize for boring you with technicalities like win/loss records. And if you want another number, I suppose I could throw out each team’s record against mutual opponents. That number also accounts for SC’s absence in the championship game.
M'ville Jacket
November 30th, 2011
12:33 pm
I have no Dog in this fight(no pun intended). But if the BCS is to be the same process year to year….not FAIR just consistent then we must look at the last time something like this happened which is in 2007.
1-Missouri 11-1
2-West Virginia 10-1
3-Ohio State 11-1
4-Georgia 10-2
5-Kansas 11-1
6-Virginia Tech 10-2
7-LSU 10-2
8-USC 9-2
9-Oklahoma 10-2
10-Florida 9-3
After Championship Weekend
1-Ohio State 11-1 Big Ten Champion Idle the week before
2-LSU 11-2 SEC Champion won SECCG
3-Virginia Tech 11-2 ACC Champion won ACCCG
4-Oklahoma 11-2 Big12 Champion won Big12CG
5-Georgia 10-2 Idle(dropped 1 spot)
6-Missouri 11-2 Lost Big12CG(dropped 5 spots)
7-USC 10-2 Pac10 Champion
8-Kansas 11-1 Idle(dropped 3 spots)
9-West Virginia 10-2 Lost and dropped 7 spots
10-Hawaii 12-0 Undefeated season
As this shows that the Idle teams that did not win thier Conference dropped in the polls. And the Conference Champs that won with the exception of the PAC10 passed over Georgia. All which had the same number of losses. If LSU wins it is a no-brainer that they play for the title. But what happens if LSU loses and VT and OkSt wins and they have the same number of loses as the 2 SEC teams and are also Conference Champions? According to past BCS standards the Conference Champions are given extra credit for winning thier Conference. As one said “We played our schedule and our record speaks for itself”. The BCS was designed to level the playing field not to be fair. The right thing to do in 2007 was to place Ohio state #1 and UGA #2. Everyone moves up. And this year there is a different school of thought. Sorry that aint right….and is definately not consistent with what the BCS has done over the years. Virginia Tech and OkSt should be upset if they win the games they have left to play based on past history. LSU must win it’s way into the BCSCG and Alabama should be preparing for a bowl game instead of lobbying for a BCSCG rematch. They had thier shot. Just like Michigan did against Ohio State a few years back and the voters thought better of it. If you want to have a rematch then maybe you should start pushing for a playoff so the “BEST TEAMS” settle it on the field.
joe
November 30th, 2011
12:33 pm
not to worry Mark, LSU is too good, too focused and GA hasn’t been tested since September.
LSU by 3 touchdowns is a more realistic scenario …..
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
12:33 pm
Listen – I think all real UGA fans would agree if the thought it thru –
I do think the BCS is a joke. No way to know if it picks the 2 best teams.
The best 2 teams should play in the final game. Should have in 2007 and should in 2011 as well. I say this regardless of confrence, regardless of whether you win your confrence.
If Bama and LSU are the best teams in the nation then they should play in the NCG regardless of whether they win their confrence.
UGA should probably have played in the NC game in 07 and not had the fact that they didnt win their confrence held against them.
The problem is the system that determins who the best 2 teams are. There is no way for voters to know they got it right.
Im fine with Bama and LSU in the NCG if LSU beats us on Saturday. It’s as good a guess as any.
If UGA should pull an upset, I dont think these two could be voted as 1&2. OSU should come in for sure.
Two teams from the same confrence can play for the NCAA Bball finals?? And not win their confrence….
Gotta go to an 8 tm playoff minimum and I would not agree to winning you confrence being a requirement to getting there. The best football would be taking the top 8 BCS ranked teams.
Louisville getting in???? as an 8 seed Vs LSU???
Not a game.
WDE
November 30th, 2011
12:35 pm
@Alphare still stirring that pot I see , and you still have players…..I know how much your enjoying yourself..but remember its UGA that is the 2011 SEC East Champs and we will be getting the honor of representing the SEC East in the SEC title game, while happily you can be at the mall getting your nails done.
Stop and Think
November 30th, 2011
12:35 pm
GIVE ME A BREAK
Your right about the numbers. What I’m saying is that if the SEC is the best in the country and both play in the SEC why is one’s schedule weaker than the other when both of them have the same record for half the schedule. they play 12 games and both were 6-0 over common opponets then half thier schedule is the same. Right?
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
12:36 pm
What
Half Century Dawg
November 30th, 2011
12:36 pm
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
12:21 pm
it does not make us superior or better than SC, but it does put us in the SECCG. Cheers
Bill
November 30th, 2011
12:37 pm
I will be so glad when this game is over and Georgia has had their butt handed to them. Tired of the arrogant Bulldog fans whose team has beaten nobody. Crowell will be lucky to last a quarter.
WDE
November 30th, 2011
12:38 pm
@Bill from you tone I’m thinking one of those “nobody” teams we beat was yours.
Nom Nom Nom Chucks....Taylor or Norris
November 30th, 2011
12:40 pm
Does anyone here like tacos?
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
12:40 pm
That’s why I think the divisions should be removed. Without the division, we would only be talking about LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and SC. How would UGA’s schedule look if they had played all common opponents?
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
12:42 pm
Dawg fan and sur would like to see LSU upset this weekend. Likely??? Not. Very possible? Yes.
The biggest thrill in winning it though would be to make a mockery of the BSC, ESPN, Herbstriet, and Lugibill.
Can live with the LSU BAMA rematch if LSU wins. It’s as good a guess for 1&2 and this sorry system can produce. But if they stick with these two after a LSU upset….. What a mess! Stay on it MB.
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
12:43 pm
UGA would probably be 7-5 and out of this discussion.
TonysgotamancrushonSaban
November 30th, 2011
12:44 pm
What if, what if… Mgarity had not switched out Boise for Louisville?