Could mighty LSU wind up in a non-BCS bowl? Er … maybe
Don't worry, Leslie: Your darn strong team won't fall as far as the Chick-fil-A Bowl. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Raging consensus holds that LSU will play for the national title no matter what it does Saturday and that the Tigers’ opponent Jan. 9 will again be Alabama. But there’s a slight — slight, let me emphasize — possibility the team that has been No. 1 in every week of the BCS rankings might land in a non-BCS bowl. (And here let me thank esteemed colleague Kevin Whaley for bringing this to my attention.)
Say LSU loses to Georgia by three touchdowns. Say No. 3 Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma by three touchdowns. (By way of comparison, Georgia is No. 14 in the BCS standings to OU’s No. 10.) Say there’s a major Oklahoma State groundswell in the human polls. Say LSU slides to No. 3 in the final rankings behind Oklahoma State and Alabama, the latter of which cannot lose this weekend because it isn’t playing.
Know where LSU, the team that has been the nation’s best from September through November, would be headed? To Orlando for the non-BCS Capital One Bowl. Or to Dallas for the non-BCS Cotton Bowl.
I say again: I don’t think that will happen. Given the Tigers’ strength of schedule — three victories against opponents in the BCS top 10 — and glowing SEC profile, it’s hard to imagine them suffering a Boise State-like fate. (One loss and you’re relegated to the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.) But if Georgia beats LSU, it goes to the BCS-affiliated Sugar Bowl as SEC champ. If Alabama stays No. 2 or ascends to No. 1, it’s in the BCS title game. And the only way a conference can send a third team to a BCS game is if two of them are playing for the national title and neither is the conference champion.
I say yet again: I don’t think that will happen. Should LSU lose, the debate would become: Who are the two best one-loss teams? At this moment, LSU would figure to have the most impressive body of one-loss work, but the voting won’t be done at this moment. Balloting — and computer-tabulating — will occur late Saturday night, and voters tend to rely most on what they saw last. And what if they just saw the Tigers lose 35-14 to a team that, according to the BCS rankings, is the SEC’s fifth-best?
Never forget that this is the BCS, where weird happens. In 2003 unbeaten and top-ranked Oklahoma lost by 28 points to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship, and somehow the Sooners stayed No. 1 in the BCS rankings. In 2007 once-beaten and top-ranked Missouri lost by 21 points to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship and didn’t even wind up in a BCS game. (But Kansas, which Missouri had beaten two weeks earlier and which finished two spots behind the Tigers in the BCS rankings, did. Georgia wasn’t the only team that got short shrift in ‘07.)
For the fourth or fifth time: When the standings are announced Sunday night, LSU and Alabama figure to be Nos. 1 and 2 (or 2 and 1) even if Georgia topples the Tigers. And that would look funny, too. A national championship game would pair a team that didn’t win its conference against one that didn’t win its division? But that’s the BCS: It’s always going to look funny. Smell funny, too.
By Mark Bradley
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595 comments Add your comment
Adult in the Room
November 30th, 2011
11:14 am
The sole purpose for the existence of the BCS is to match the #1 and #2 teams in a Championship Game after the regular season ends.
Georgia will not be playing in that game and the opinion (and incessant whining) of Georgia fans will have no effect upon the crowning of the National Champion. Enjoy your beat-down next Saturday – you deserve every minute of it.
NUMBER 14 in JANUARY
November 30th, 2011
11:14 am
Renew them every year…EBAY has always been a good place …maybe I’ll try STUB. Thanks!!
GT FAN
November 30th, 2011
11:15 am
If LSU beats UGA it has won the NC.
SawThat1nce
November 30th, 2011
11:15 am
Let the hacks at ESPN decide what happens, like they did in 2007, when they screwed the Bulldogs.
BullDogMike
November 30th, 2011
11:15 am
npgator…with a hobnail boot ?
DawginLex
November 30th, 2011
11:16 am
don’t worry npgator
florida will get to play in the Dome this year
Clemson 63
Florida 3
2011 Chik Fil A Bowl
GT FAN
November 30th, 2011
11:16 am
Nothing Alabama can do. LSU has beat 7 ranked teams. What has bama done?
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
11:17 am
DawginLex,
I had an argument with some dawg fans earlier in the blog. Go back and read them. I argued SC should represent East, not UGA.
joekill
November 30th, 2011
11:17 am
any given day anybody can beat anyone weve seen time and time again remember what uga did in 2005 i know that team was stronger at certain postions than this one is But i feel like our D is going to keep us in it an aaron murry will play his game and do his thing. if we get a solid game from crowell that will help to but come one people jordan jefferson isnt the best qb thats for darn sure and i think as a group we have better recievers than they do their defense cant do everything for them
GO DAWGS!
Cuz
November 30th, 2011
11:17 am
The BCS is BS. The C is irrelevant. Top eight teams in a playoff would solve all but the teams who wind up 10 thru 12.
GT FAN
November 30th, 2011
11:18 am
CUZ as in Andrew?
WDE
November 30th, 2011
11:19 am
@Vince Drooley I’m betting your team is watching the SEC title game on TV this weekend right?
BILLY JACK
November 30th, 2011
11:20 am
LSU AND GEORGIA WILL PLAY SAT FOR THE SEC CHAMPIONSHIP-NOT SC OR BAMA-THEY HAD THIER CHANCE AND BOTH BLEW IT AT HOME -BAMA TO LSU -SC TO AUBURN-BOTH OF YOU ARE NOW DISMISSED-TIME FOR THE 2 BIG BOYS TO PLAY.
BullDogMike
November 30th, 2011
11:21 am
Alphare..SC not best in East. They LOST to freakin AUBURN !!!!!
WDE
November 30th, 2011
11:21 am
@Alphare that was no argument you have no case the rules are the rules SC lost 2 SEC games and UGA only one..what you had was your world famous pot stirring going on…
GT FAN
November 30th, 2011
11:21 am
Please no yelling, Billy
Vince Drooley
November 30th, 2011
11:21 am
@WDE, I bet your team does not have a crystal football.
munsondawg
November 30th, 2011
11:21 am
@ alphare
Tell ya what. call up the SEC office and demand SC goes. Go ahead. do it. do it I say. do it now!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RiffRaff
November 30th, 2011
11:25 am
UGA will find out how far they have come this season on Saturday. LSU is the best team out there. If the Dawgs can hang around until the 4th quarter maybe there’s a chance. Maybe.
BullDogMike
November 30th, 2011
11:25 am
Vince : what’s all this crud about crystal balls ? Are you equating them with NC’s .?
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
11:26 am
WDE,
the rule is the rule, why you guys are arguing BAMA should not be in NC? what rule says BAMA does not belong?
To others:
I was arguing the rule is not fair that puts UGA in the SECCG. I didn’t argue UGA should not be in the game based on the current rule. You guys cannot read.
DC
November 30th, 2011
11:26 am
Funny how many UGA fans were yelling you cant compare what AU did to USCe to what USCe did to UGA….
Now UGA fans are comparing what LSU did to Miss St and what LSU did to AU…interesting..quite interesting…
GeauxTiger
November 30th, 2011
11:27 am
There’s a chance that Mark Bradley could be writing for the Tattnall Jounrnal. You people will say anything to get someone to read your mess. Why don’t you use your “skills” and write about something worth reading.
Whine Whine Whine
November 30th, 2011
11:28 am
“I was arguing the rule is not fair that puts UGA in the SECCG.”
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
11:28 am
Drop the divisions in a conference and let the two best teams in conference play for conference champion. Then let champion from two conferences play for NC. UGA being involved in this discussion is ridiculous. Alabama’s body of work has to include taking the best team in the nation to overtime .
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
11:29 am
Enter your comments here
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
11:30 am
Mark, my comment didn’t get through.
Perro de Perdedor
November 30th, 2011
11:31 am
UGA may not qualify to play for a National Championship, but I’d settle for just being able to screw it up for the teams that do qualify!
TOo Tough44
November 30th, 2011
11:32 am
When LSU gets whipped by UGA, oh how that will tarnish Les Miles and the BCS ” only a team that has won its confernce should be allowed to play for the Natl title”….GO DAWGS!
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
11:32 am
Whine Whine Whine,
go back and see how many dawg fans saying BAMA should not be in NC, and how BCS is BS and its rules should be changed.
While you guys are arguing BCS rules are not fair, I was arguing SEC rules are not fair.
Now you call me a whiner?
bob
November 30th, 2011
11:33 am
If Georgia pulls off a miracle and OSU beats the Sooners, Alabama, not LSU is going to feel the wrath of the ground swell of anti-SEC feeling out there. I believe that voters will tolerate one team that did not win their conference in the game. But I don’t believe for one moment that they will vote for two teams, that have already played, are from the same conference and neither of which won their conference. Ain’t happening at all.
But Okie State would have to do their part and beat OU for a change. Their SOS is much greater than Alabama’s and they would be a conference champ. The voters, whose vote will be public knowledge after this poll, will not accept the 2d and 3d place teams in the SEC meeting for the title.
Now, I think Georgia’s chances are very slim. If LSU wins, Bama might hold on to 2d place even with an Oklahoma State win. But if the Dawgs pull off the miracle, Alabama, not LSU is in trouble.
UGA Insider
November 30th, 2011
11:34 am
Prove it!
USCe is finally playing up to their potential I agree. I actually picked you to win the MNC at the start of the season because I knew the D would be awesome and if there were a SEC round robin tournament next week, USCe would be my pick to win it. However, you were trounced by Arkansas and that is ok because it only gave you one SEC loss, but then you slipped and got beat by a bad Auburn team. You lost with Lattimore so no excuses. UGA played Auburn with everything on the line and we beat them 42-7 and the score could have been 65-7. Please note we threw the ball 2 times in the second half. I like the USCe team and I am a huge UGA homer but you had your chance and you blew it….so please get over it and root for UGA against LSU. You have no one to blame but yourself. Also please note you should have gotten beat by Miss St who UGA beat with one hand tied behind our back.
DC
November 30th, 2011
11:35 am
yeah mine got devoured by the ajc blog too
Perro de Perdedor
November 30th, 2011
11:35 am
My only hope is to bring others down to my level. I’ve accepted the fact that I can’t rise up to meet the level of my competition, so this is all that I really have left to cling to. What can I say? I’m a Dawg fan.
WOOF WOOF WOOF!!!
UGA Insider
November 30th, 2011
11:35 am
Bob,
Great point…I bring that up to Bama fans all time…….who in the hell have they beaten this year? Penn St? That is a joke. Arkansas is overrated.
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
11:39 am
Drop the divisions in the conferences.
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
11:40 am
1. Team A ranks higher in BCS than team B at the end of season,
2. Team A doesn’t lose a single game to its division opponents, while team B lose 1 to its division opponents
3. Team A has the same overall record as team B
4. Team A holds a tie-breaker against team B.
Dawg fans, tell us which team should represent its division to play in the conference champ game.
SSIgator
November 30th, 2011
11:40 am
“Georgia wasn’t the only team that got short shrift in ‘07″
Puleeeeze. Mark, you must be hanging around with Bill King too much now.
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
11:40 am
Let conference champions play for NC.
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
11:42 am
Alabama’s body of work includes taking LSU to overtime.
tmc
November 30th, 2011
11:42 am
If i’m Ok St and beat Oklahoma this weekend and win the Big 12 and do not play in the BCS Championship game… i would either sue the NCAA or lead a group to leave the NCAA.
Because it would be a joke. And the message sent by the NCAA to it’s member institutions is “we can change the rules whenever we want and there is nothing you can do about it”. period
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
11:46 am
LSU playing Ok St. would work for me. I’d rather see LSU play VT.
crackbaby
November 30th, 2011
11:46 am
I love America, my family and cold beer.
Hate the BCS.
Winner of SEC Champ game is in. They play another Conference champion deemed to be worthy. Ok State, Va Tech would be fine.
Alabama is out.
harold
November 30th, 2011
11:46 am
THIS GAME WILL BE A MASSACURE. UGA IS GOING TO GET “ABUSED”. LSU IS LIKE AN NFL TEAM.
Dirty Dawg
November 30th, 2011
11:47 am
Sure LSU is a big favorite and very well could beat the crap out of us, but I prefer to engage in ‘wishful thinking’ and go into the game thinking about how much fun it would be to win it. Kinda like how I rationalize why I buy Lottery tickets…I at least get to ‘think’ about winning. So what’s so wrong about that? You can do the ‘low expectations’ thing but I find it more fun to ‘believe’ and even if we don’t ‘pull it off’ we can say ‘we wuz there, dammit’.
GTville
November 30th, 2011
11:49 am
It’s all a popularity contest now. LSU wins the SEC and they should be in the NC game obviously. I am OK with Bama too as I think they are better than the other 1 loss teams.
If UGA wins though, this makes all conference championship games a joke. UGA wins they should be in the title game as a 2 loss team; or, Boise State should play LSU.
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 30th, 2011
11:50 am
Divide the conferences into East and West. Two best conference champions in each play and then those two play for NC.
Matt
November 30th, 2011
11:50 am
It’s amazing how the rules can change to fit whatever the BCS wants.
“Every week is a playoff, lose and you’re probably out” EXCEPT IF YOUR BAMA; NO WAY AN IDLE TEAM SHOULD STILL PLAY FOR THE NC IF OSU OR VATECH WIN BIG IN THEIR CHAMPIONSHIPS!!
“You can’t hold it against BOise St (and now Houston) for their schedule” EXCUSE ME, THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING TO UGA RIGHT NOW!!
“You can’t play for the NC if you don’t even win (let alone play for) your conference championship” UNLESS YOUR BAMA IN 2011.
“If your going to lose, lose early” UNLESS YOUR LSU. UGA BY THE WAY LOST THEIR 2 FIRST GAMES TO TOP 10 TEAMS AND THEN WON 10 IN A ROW. THEY ACTUALLY DROPPED A SPOT AFTER BEATING TECH.
Unbelievable.
ARdawg
November 30th, 2011
11:51 am
Alphare
You would be hard pressed to find a Georgia fan that truly believed the Dawgs belong in the BCSCG this year. That’s not even a question. Two things on Bama, 1- they’ve had a shot to be #1, they were beaten. If the regular season games do not count, the BCS is a failure. 2 – Bama didn’t win it’s conference. That was the precursor as why Georgia didn’t qualify in 07. Saban himself declared on national TV, teams in the BCSCG should win their conference. Oh the hyprocracy of it all
Atlanta Gator
November 30th, 2011
11:51 am
@Mark Bradley,
You were really desperate for a blog topic today, weren’t you?
Why don’t we wait three days and let them actually play the SEC Championship Game before we engage in pointless conjecture? I know, I know. That would require you to actually engage in real reporting and real writing about a sports topic, not just asking a hypothetical and then expressing your opinion in order to drive website hits? You know, maybe include some actual facts and insight about a college football topic?