Could mighty LSU wind up in a non-BCS bowl? Er … maybe
Don't worry, Leslie: Your darn strong team won't fall as far as the Chick-fil-A Bowl. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Raging consensus holds that LSU will play for the national title no matter what it does Saturday and that the Tigers’ opponent Jan. 9 will again be Alabama. But there’s a slight — slight, let me emphasize — possibility the team that has been No. 1 in every week of the BCS rankings might land in a non-BCS bowl. (And here let me thank esteemed colleague Kevin Whaley for bringing this to my attention.)
Say LSU loses to Georgia by three touchdowns. Say No. 3 Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma by three touchdowns. (By way of comparison, Georgia is No. 14 in the BCS standings to OU’s No. 10.) Say there’s a major Oklahoma State groundswell in the human polls. Say LSU slides to No. 3 in the final rankings behind Oklahoma State and Alabama, the latter of which cannot lose this weekend because it isn’t playing.
Know where LSU, the team that has been the nation’s best from September through November, would be headed? To Orlando for the non-BCS Capital One Bowl. Or to Dallas for the non-BCS Cotton Bowl.
I say again: I don’t think that will happen. Given the Tigers’ strength of schedule — three victories against opponents in the BCS top 10 — and glowing SEC profile, it’s hard to imagine them suffering a Boise State-like fate. (One loss and you’re relegated to the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.) But if Georgia beats LSU, it goes to the BCS-affiliated Sugar Bowl as SEC champ. If Alabama stays No. 2 or ascends to No. 1, it’s in the BCS title game. And the only way a conference can send a third team to a BCS game is if two of them are playing for the national title and neither is the conference champion.
I say yet again: I don’t think that will happen. Should LSU lose, the debate would become: Who are the two best one-loss teams? At this moment, LSU would figure to have the most impressive body of one-loss work, but the voting won’t be done at this moment. Balloting — and computer-tabulating — will occur late Saturday night, and voters tend to rely most on what they saw last. And what if they just saw the Tigers lose 35-14 to a team that, according to the BCS rankings, is the SEC’s fifth-best?
Never forget that this is the BCS, where weird happens. In 2003 unbeaten and top-ranked Oklahoma lost by 28 points to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship, and somehow the Sooners stayed No. 1 in the BCS rankings. In 2007 once-beaten and top-ranked Missouri lost by 21 points to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship and didn’t even wind up in a BCS game. (But Kansas, which Missouri had beaten two weeks earlier and which finished two spots behind the Tigers in the BCS rankings, did. Georgia wasn’t the only team that got short shrift in ‘07.)
For the fourth or fifth time: When the standings are announced Sunday night, LSU and Alabama figure to be Nos. 1 and 2 (or 2 and 1) even if Georgia topples the Tigers. And that would look funny, too. A national championship game would pair a team that didn’t win its conference against one that didn’t win its division? But that’s the BCS: It’s always going to look funny. Smell funny, too.
By Mark Bradley
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595 comments Add your comment
BisherFan
November 30th, 2011
9:41 am
No other sport, at any signficant level anywhere in the world, decides a champion by voting. It’s sickening to see these bowl executives continue to line their own pockets at the expense of the fans, the players, and the sport.
Sponsors go along because they have no choice; all would favor a 16 team tournament. 8 games the first Saturday of December, 4 games the second, two New Year’s day, and a championship game a week or so later. The athletes aren’t even in school during that period, and the ratings – and the money – would triple what’s generated now.
I personally don’t care who winds up in a B-S championship game. The only game that means anything real is Saturday, and the Dogs have the talent and momentum to win.
Hey Mr. ATLTiger, you realize that if Bama had signed a real kicker to a scholarship, you guys wouldn’t even be in the hunt, don’t you? Bama lost that game on special teams, LSU didn’t go out and win it.
munsondawg
November 30th, 2011
9:41 am
@ alphare
Bottom line is SC LOST 2 SEC GAMES. GA LOST 1. I dont call that a technicality. I call that fact. Argue all you want, the team with the best SEC record goes from each division.
Gary
November 30th, 2011
9:41 am
Alphare, you don’t get it. SC lost 2 SEC games, period. If you are talking about a conference championship, then it is based on how the teams did in the conference, not outside. What #5 team did SC play outside of the conference? Yeah, that’s what I thought, none. Better luck next year. Georgia lost only 1 conference game, SC lost 2. Do the math. Should be easy enough even for an SC fan.
steve
November 30th, 2011
9:42 am
Now that is just silly none of that will happen get out of fantasyland MB, G.A.T.A. Dawgs
robodawg
November 30th, 2011
9:43 am
Barring a total embarrassment on Saturday, LSU should be in the BCS title game. But the other team should be Oklahoma State or Stanford. Bama passes the “eye test” better, but you don’t really know how good one of those other teams is until you match them up on the field.
Remember the rematch talk between Michigan and Ohio State in 2006? Those two teams supposedly looked better than anyone else in the country, and Ohio State won a close one. But the system lucked out and got it right that year, put Florida in, and Florida proceeded to smash the eye test expectations by laying a whopping on mighty Ohio State.
Point is, you don’t know until you match ‘em up. Eye tests can be deceiving. Bama had their shot, and there are other one-loss teams that played tough schedules, had one hiccup, but otherwise don’t look too shabby.
Only a playoff would really be fair.
superDawg
November 30th, 2011
9:45 am
If UGA wins this game I know who will be crying the hardest.
Shug
November 30th, 2011
9:45 am
If there were a playoff system, many times a nonconference winner would be matched up against another nonconference winner. Where’s the justice in that? THE BOWL SYSTEM ROCKS!
Chuck
November 30th, 2011
9:45 am
@WDE
The Tide either dribbled down its pant leg at home or LSU is clearly the superior team. Which one is it? If LSU is the superior team, then Bama couldn’t win no matter what. Pick an argument and stick to it. Anyway…9-6 is hardly “clearly superior”.
concern
November 30th, 2011
9:46 am
Who has UAT beaten?
Weak non conference schedule and neither of two East Division teams.
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
9:46 am
Detroit – Regualr season is just not a playoff of in my opinion. You might say that the SEC is a playoff for a shot at the NC game the last 3 5-6 years. But the national picture….You cant play but so many non confrence games. I professional sports you have more parity and I do feel that division winners with the WC, the cream rises. In NCAA there is less parity between confrences.
The worst thing that could happen in my opinion is go to a playoff were confrence champs get auto in. I could not see a BIG 8 Louisville or any other weak confrence champ getting into a playoff ahead of a Bama that did not win it’s confrence championship. That would create some slaughters… bad games.
BisherFan
November 30th, 2011
9:46 am
By the way, as far as Alabama goes, no team should be considered for a national championship game that can’t kick a field goal or score a touchdown.
Dawglasville
November 30th, 2011
9:46 am
On this SEC Least deal. The West has two great teams and one very good team. The East hast two very good teams. I believe will all of my heart that South Carolina and UGA are better than every team in the ACC once you get past Virginia Tech. Look at Wakes conference record versus Vandy’s and Vandy beat the brakes off of them.
thomas omalley
November 30th, 2011
9:47 am
I think LSU will win. I think UGA will make a great showing.
I also think Ok St beats OU convincingly. The voters will say, “we’ve already seen Bama vs LSU”. OSU will jump Bama and play for the championship.
Just my two cents.
concern
November 30th, 2011
9:48 am
And UAT lose to LSU was at home. How many breaks do they expect.
DetroitBraves
November 30th, 2011
9:49 am
@Shug, Green Bay was a wildcard last year. Do you have a problem with them winning the Super Bowl? And the Cardinals were a wildcard in baseball this year. Do you have a problem with them winning the World Series? Actually, I can see an argument for only allowing the division/conference champions into the field but the other sports have the potential for non-regular season champions to win the whole thing.
MelvinH
November 30th, 2011
9:49 am
Davis, whatever you are smoking you need to share with the group. This is quite a collection of stupidity otehrwise:
____________________________________________________________________
“LSU can’t beat us, head to head against common opponents, we’re the better team, the ONLY way we lose, is if we beat ourselves.
Alabama missed fields goals galore. Arkansas turned the ball over and gave up special teams plays.
Can’t give this game to LSU cheaply, have to, for the 1ST TIME all season, make them earn the win.”
“Auburn scored 14 on Alabama, only 7 on Georgia. People don’t give this defense credit but against common opponents, Georgia’s D is better than LSU.
The Georgia offense can hit you with 5 receivers who have over 40 catches:
King, Bennett, Connelly, Charles, Mitchell
The Georgia offense has Crowell, Thomas, and playmaker Branden Smith at running back. That’s more speed than LSU has faced.
Special teams has Walsh and Butler and Boykin. And we will likely kick the ball away from LSU playmakers, making other guys beat us.”
____________________________________________________________________
Do you honestly believe any of this nonsense? Does UGa have a shot to win? Of course they do but it wil lrequire a PERFECT game by UGA and a complete LSU collapse.
When these two teams line up 11 on 11, LSU is supoerior at every position. In many cases, LSU’s 2nd team is superior. All of th nonsense about common opponents and what not is nonsense. The two best wins in UGA resumes is 8-4 Ga Tech , 7-4 Coastal Carolina and 7-5 Auburn.
If UGA keeps the score within 3 touchdowns, you should consider that a moral victory.
BisherFan
November 30th, 2011
9:49 am
Shug…are you CRAZY????
Who the heck gives a rat’s behind about any bowl game, except perhaps the national championship???
Of course, a tournament creates debate too. The 17th ranked team is going to be PO’ed for sure, but that happens with the 64 team basketball tournament as well.
By the way, I’m not a Dog fan ordinarily. I grew up on Bobby Dodd kicking Georgia’s rear year after year…
jg
November 30th, 2011
9:50 am
Mark,
Are you saying that you think GA will win by 3 TDs?
Morrison
November 30th, 2011
9:50 am
Got UGA 45, LSU 7, LSU just like Auburn, they ain’t all dat.
David
November 30th, 2011
9:50 am
Hey Mark,
Missouri wasn’t unbeaten before the Big 12 title game, they had one loss, previously to Oklahoma 41-31. They then went out and lost to them by 3 touchdowns, 38-17. Kansas only had one loss going into the Orange Bowl, Missouri had two. Picking the former over the latter wasn’t the slam dunk like you imply. As to 2007, I’m the biggest Dawg fan there is, but if you want to play for the national title that year, don’t wet the bed in Knoxville or lose to a 6-6 Carolina team at home. We were hot in November, but that’s not the only time a national champ is determined.
thomas omalley
November 30th, 2011
9:51 am
Missed. Four. Field goals.
No. Touchdowns.
At home.
Wet. The. Bed.
Who? Alabama.
No. Division. Title.
No. SEC. Title.
Should. Equal. No. BCS game.
steve
November 30th, 2011
9:51 am
Look vision master, it will come down to LSU vs BAMA in the french 1/4 no one really wants to see those other low money teams play anyway! Roll TIDE Roll…………..
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
9:51 am
munsondawg & Gary,
of course I get it: SC lost 2 SEC games. But SC has a better record than UGA in SEC East competitions. Why UGA represents the East if SC has a better record?
Why the conference don’t use overall record, or East record? doesn’t East record make more sense since you are picking the East champ? but they use conference record. That’s why I call it a technicality.
Morrison
November 30th, 2011
9:52 am
Call Tech, they have a better rushing attack than LSU. Ask dem bout our run defense.
News: Syracuse’s Boeheim not worried about job status – Atlanta Journal Constitution | News 25/7! Delivering news in real time
November 30th, 2011
9:52 am
[...] Could mighty LSU wind up in a non-BCS bowl? Er … maybe [...]
Morrison
November 30th, 2011
9:53 am
It don’t matter what garbage ESPN blather, ESPN don’t play LSU on Saturday, UGA do. If UGA win it, ESPN look reel dumb again, just like dey did when they all said Georgia Tech would beat UGA.
bulldog steve
November 30th, 2011
9:55 am
I think a more realistic scenario is if LSU loses to UGA by a fairly large margin, is that somebody jumps Alabama and its LSU and Ok St. A UGA win would lessen the “quality loss” by Alabama and of Ok St blows OK away, they deserve to be in the championship. I am still amazed that Ark is ranked so high. They beat nobody and got blown out by both LSU and AL. They did beat SC, but that is when they were still adapting to life with out Lattimore and Garcia. If they played again, SC would win.
Starring Kam Fong as Chin Ho
November 30th, 2011
9:55 am
@ roll tide. Bama should try beating Utah. I’m not p o’d about 07, I just don’t think Bama has done enough to warrant a title shot this year. Like I said, ya’ll had your shot and blew it at home. And yes, I think Ga has a chance this Sat. More of a chance than the Tide (they ain’t gonna be there). And more of a chance than you want to admit. I think if LSU wins, Bama should go to the Sugar and face Mich. I think they win that match up. Peace to all
munsondawg
November 30th, 2011
9:55 am
@ morrison..
LOL!!! I forgot about Lee Corso & Kirk Herbstreit picking GA Tech last week!!!!!
Morrison
November 30th, 2011
9:56 am
Me remember Auburn QB saying UGA defense stack up reel good to LSU, and offenses are comparable, cuz he played them both.
Morrison
November 30th, 2011
9:57 am
Herbie ought to be fired for saying Tech would beat UGA, really???? 10 out of 11 now.
Morrison
November 30th, 2011
9:59 am
Hey LSU, how ya like our speed on both sides of da ball? Can you handle it? No wayz bro.
bruce mac
November 30th, 2011
10:00 am
Just so I can say “I told you so” for the record. All of you LSU fans will be soiling yourselves well into the fourth quarter. There is not much difference in these teams and the Dawgs are more comfortable in the Dome than the Bayou Tigers. Aaron Murray and this group of receivers is so much better than Bama it is not even close. So, the Dawgs will score and the run oriented Tigers will not run over the Dawgs but will score also. I say a late field goal wins the game and I am certainly not comfortable with our kicker but maybe the spirit of Munson can pull him throught like 1978 in Lexington. Yeah, yeah yeah!!!! I say 24 to 21 and who knows who wins.
MelvinH
November 30th, 2011
10:00 am
“Call Tech, they have a better rushing attack than LSU. Ask dem bout our run defense.”
UGA gave up 243 rushing yards in that game. If LSU has 243 rush yards, this game will be even uglier that anyone could imagine. UGA may lose by 40.
RxDawg
November 30th, 2011
10:00 am
LSU could come in and lay an egg against UGA and they still would be more deserving then Bama.
Morrison
November 30th, 2011
10:01 am
What was the score of the Tech game, how far wrong was Herbie? rEEL WRONG.
LOL!
November 30th, 2011
10:01 am
This is the beginning of the downfall of college football if we don’t install an 8 team playoff quick! We should name this the ESPN Brandname National Championship. Oh and Nick Satan, you are a hypocrite!
DetroitBraves
November 30th, 2011
10:02 am
Didn’t Tech get shut down by Virginia and Miami? I’ve got to think LSU’s talent trumps Tech’s gimmicks.
UGA Insider
November 30th, 2011
10:02 am
LSU fans are not going to Atlanta. Tickets are available for face value Dawg fans….. I don’t think the LSU team will show up either because this game doesn’t matter to them.
UGA 24
LSU 20
LSU and Bama will still play in the BCSNCG and UGA will play Houston in the Sugar. However I am going to act like a Alabama fan and crown my team UGA as national champions this year and make a t-shirt and hat. Bama did that several times in the 30’s and 40’s when all our kids were at war. Most of Bama’s 13 titles are self initiated.
Morrison
November 30th, 2011
10:02 am
I think LSU defenze gave up 550 yards to W Vir bro, we ain’t done dat gainst nobody.
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
10:02 am
Do doubt LSU on paper is the stronger team but until they tee it up on the field, we wont know for sure and any given day….. Who knows. Just happy as he11 to be there.
GTT
November 30th, 2011
10:02 am
Kevin Whaley of Atlanta, via Dalton and Antelope Valley, Calif.? That Kevin Whaley?
D man
November 30th, 2011
10:02 am
Let’s be real here, LSU should beat GA or at the very least play a close game. Second, Alabama is a better team than LSU and I think we will see that in the BCS Championship game. Anyone who watched the previous game between the two would have seen 4 missed field goals and a interception call that should have been called a completion for Alabama at the 1 foot line 1st and goal. (his back was on the ground with possession of the ball) LSU knows they were lucky to get a win at Alabama.
UGA Insider
November 30th, 2011
10:03 am
UGA 24
LSU 20
Morrison
November 30th, 2011
10:03 am
If LSU give up 550 yards to UGA like da did against W Vir, could be a rout bro.
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
10:04 am
No doubt…
D man
November 30th, 2011
10:04 am
I just want My Dawgs to look good win or lose Saturday.
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
10:05 am
Actually I don’t think OSU will beat OK. Here are the defense numbers for both teams:
OKU: 14+13+28+6+17+17+41+17+25+45+6=229, average=20.8
OSU: 34+14+33+29+28+26+24+24+45+6+37=276, average=25.1
OK consistently holds their opponents to a low score except 2 games, while OSU gives up a bunch of points except 2 games.
OK lost 2 games by a combined 10 points.
So I think OK is a better team than OSU, but obviously luck was not on their side for a couple of games.
I believe OK will beat OSU.
MelvinH
November 30th, 2011
10:05 am
“the Dawgs are more comfortable in the Dome than the Bayou Tigers.”
I couldn’t find anything on UGA’s record in the Ga Dome but LSU is 8-1 all time there. Perhaps you could shre UGA’s record with everyone?
Ron Swanson
November 30th, 2011
10:05 am
Melvin, Everyone gives up rushing yards to Tech, they attempt like 4 passes a game. The 243 rushing yards probably account for 99% of its total offense in that game so that is really not impressive.