Could mighty LSU wind up in a non-BCS bowl? Er … maybe
Don't worry, Leslie: Your darn strong team won't fall as far as the Chick-fil-A Bowl. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Raging consensus holds that LSU will play for the national title no matter what it does Saturday and that the Tigers’ opponent Jan. 9 will again be Alabama. But there’s a slight — slight, let me emphasize — possibility the team that has been No. 1 in every week of the BCS rankings might land in a non-BCS bowl. (And here let me thank esteemed colleague Kevin Whaley for bringing this to my attention.)
Say LSU loses to Georgia by three touchdowns. Say No. 3 Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma by three touchdowns. (By way of comparison, Georgia is No. 14 in the BCS standings to OU’s No. 10.) Say there’s a major Oklahoma State groundswell in the human polls. Say LSU slides to No. 3 in the final rankings behind Oklahoma State and Alabama, the latter of which cannot lose this weekend because it isn’t playing.
Know where LSU, the team that has been the nation’s best from September through November, would be headed? To Orlando for the non-BCS Capital One Bowl. Or to Dallas for the non-BCS Cotton Bowl.
I say again: I don’t think that will happen. Given the Tigers’ strength of schedule — three victories against opponents in the BCS top 10 — and glowing SEC profile, it’s hard to imagine them suffering a Boise State-like fate. (One loss and you’re relegated to the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.) But if Georgia beats LSU, it goes to the BCS-affiliated Sugar Bowl as SEC champ. If Alabama stays No. 2 or ascends to No. 1, it’s in the BCS title game. And the only way a conference can send a third team to a BCS game is if two of them are playing for the national title and neither is the conference champion.
I say yet again: I don’t think that will happen. Should LSU lose, the debate would become: Who are the two best one-loss teams? At this moment, LSU would figure to have the most impressive body of one-loss work, but the voting won’t be done at this moment. Balloting — and computer-tabulating — will occur late Saturday night, and voters tend to rely most on what they saw last. And what if they just saw the Tigers lose 35-14 to a team that, according to the BCS rankings, is the SEC’s fifth-best?
Never forget that this is the BCS, where weird happens. In 2003 unbeaten and top-ranked Oklahoma lost by 28 points to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship, and somehow the Sooners stayed No. 1 in the BCS rankings. In 2007 once-beaten and top-ranked Missouri lost by 21 points to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship and didn’t even wind up in a BCS game. (But Kansas, which Missouri had beaten two weeks earlier and which finished two spots behind the Tigers in the BCS rankings, did. Georgia wasn’t the only team that got short shrift in ‘07.)
For the fourth or fifth time: When the standings are announced Sunday night, LSU and Alabama figure to be Nos. 1 and 2 (or 2 and 1) even if Georgia topples the Tigers. And that would look funny, too. A national championship game would pair a team that didn’t win its conference against one that didn’t win its division? But that’s the BCS: It’s always going to look funny. Smell funny, too.
By Mark Bradley
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595 comments Add your comment
tyler durden
November 30th, 2011
9:10 am
you think the ‘DAWGS’ have a better chance than Alabama? You must have your head shoved really far up your “whatchamacallit”
Davis
November 30th, 2011
9:10 am
Our defense, and offense is better against common opponents than LSU.
If we beat LSU, we, like Alabama & LSU, will all have 1 SEC loss. But we’ll be the only champion.
We are the only team that can beat Georgia, self inflicted mistakes like penalties, turnovers, missed field goals, sacks, special teams, as Spurrier knows. Spurrier couldn’t believe they won that game. Boise game turned on a few self inflicted mistakes.
LSU can’t beat us, head to head against common opponents, we’re the better team, the ONLY way we lose, is if we beat ourselves.
Alabama missed fields goals galore. Arkansas turned the ball over and gave up special teams plays.
Can’t give this game to LSU cheaply, have to, for the 1ST TIME all season, make them earn the win.
Rampdaawg
November 30th, 2011
9:11 am
Roll Tide
November 30th, 2011
8:48 am
Other than a win over a three loss Penn State and an over rated Arkansas (no defense) where exactly is Bama’s “body of work”? It doesn’t exist. Bama had their chance vs LSU and spit the bit. Bama has not earned another shot at LSU, they let their shot at home
Where is Georgia’s body of work? New Mexico State, Vandy, and Kentucky is a hell of a schedule
————————————————————————————————————————————— RollTech, why did you leave your team “Ga. Tech” off that list?
I think we all know.
- Greater Baton Rouge News
November 30th, 2011
9:11 am
[...] Visit link: Could mighty LSU wind up in a non-BCS bowl? Er … maybe – Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
True Dawg Fan
November 30th, 2011
9:11 am
Roll Tide
November 30th, 2011
9:03 am
Troll Tide, Ga is not begging to be given a second chance at a BCS title after losing at home. My question remains. Kent State, North Tx, Vandy, Ole Miss, Tenn, Miss St, Ga Southern. Ya’ll don’t deserve a title shot. Period.
And you believe your Georgia team has a shot this weekend? Try beating a sorry Boise State team that dominated the pups earlier this year. You are just another delusional fan still pissed about not getting that title shot in 2007.
Bama hasnt done anyting this year except lose to LSU already. Even Saban said in 03 “If you dont win the conference you shouldnt play for the National Title”
66DAWGnNC
November 30th, 2011
9:12 am
As someone so aptly said a few years back, “The BCS has one too many letters in it!” While I agree with Saban that the two best teams should play for the National Title, the question becomes, “How do we determine the two best teams?” Any time you have “human” polls involved, you have bias and subjectivity. Even with the computer polls you have a certain element of subjectivity. Some human has to program those computers, don’t they? Here is an example: UGA is ranked #14 in the BCS while Oklahoma is #10. Which is the better team? UGA lost the first two games to #5 Boise St. and #12 South Carolina while OU lost to a bad Texas Tech (and unranked I might add), and a decent #22 Baylor (on a fluke pass at the end I will add). Which is the better team? Well, since UGA lost to two ranked teams early, and OU lost to one unranked team that has been embarrased by others since, logic says that UGA should be ranked higher than OU. But, perception is 99% of reality. Because OU is perceived to be better, they are ranked higher. Would UGA beat OU? I suppose we will not know this year. If both win this weekend one will go to the Sugar while the other will go to the Fiesta. My point is this, until there is a playoff we will NEVER know who the true champion is. While I think it would be a travesty if LSU is denied a chance to play for the title (i.e. should UGA win), I also think it a travesty that two teams play for a National Title when they did not win their conference or even their division as pointed out in the article. I stopped listening to ESPN Gameday in 07 when Herbstreit was on there one week talking about how UGA could play for the title (#4 in the BCS at the time and even dropped one spot in the final poll although we did not play a game), if West Virginia AND Missouri lost. Obviously he did not expect either one and certainly not both to lose as the next week he began to argue why UGA SHOULD NOT play for the title. Herbstreit’s argument, “They did not win their conference and did not even win their division. Thus, they do not deserve a shot at the National Title.” Hum. Guess who they think deserves that shot this year even though they did not win their division? No offense to Alabama, but you had your shot at LSU. Will UGA beat LSU? Don’t know. All the talking heads say there is no chance. But I am reminded of a line in “Dumb and Dumber” when Jim Carey asked the pretty read-head for a date and she said there was about a million to one chance of that. His response, “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance.” That’s why they play the games. Institute a play-off NOW and we will not have to worry about perception anymore. Championships should be won on the field and if you do not win your conference, you should not play for the National Championship. Yes, there certainly is one too many letters in BCS!
North ave. faithful
November 30th, 2011
9:12 am
I agree with rhbdawg, i think if the dawgs win the will be battling the tigers and the refs in this game. dont think foe a minute that wouldnt happen.
Dawglasville
November 30th, 2011
9:13 am
Blair Miss Project – I can’t remember. Are you a Tech or Auburn fan?
Trojan
November 30th, 2011
9:13 am
Saban should look at his own quotes from a few years ago. (He should also go oversign someone).
Ball Glaze
November 30th, 2011
9:13 am
saban is praying on his knees nightly for an lsu loss and a bama matchup with ok state in the sugar bowl, which bama would win by 20+. But, it will not happen—lsu will beat ga easily.
truth in the pudding
November 30th, 2011
9:14 am
Two words: Playoff Tournament. It would end all “what ifs”. FCS does it and no problems at all. Clear winner, also means more football to watch. With that said, Go Tigers.
tyler durden
November 30th, 2011
9:16 am
UGA beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to, I don’t know why UGA fans think the 10 game streak is so magical….no quality opponents…period. I can’t wait until Saturday.
robodawg
November 30th, 2011
9:16 am
How unfair would it be if Bama jumped over LSU in the rankings? Almost like Bama was better off losing to LSU and NOT going to the SEC championship game.
In any case, even if we do manage to topple LSU, I can’t imagine it being by a very wide margin. LSU should stay in the top two.
Now if Oklahoma State has a big win Saturday, they have the most legitimate gripe about how the BCS system “works.”
Boots
November 30th, 2011
9:17 am
I can see where LSU could lose to the Dawgs, then play Bama in the rematch and lose that game, too. If they did, there would be a strong argument they should still share the NC with Alabama, a team with a weak schedule who LSU had already beaten on the Tide’s home turf. So, a team that lost its last two games would share the NC with a team that played a weak schedule and did not eden win its division in their conference?
John
November 30th, 2011
9:17 am
Trojan,
Those quotes from Saban from a few years ago do not exist. Fowler on ESPN even admitted that the quotes can not be validated anywhere. Someone with too much time on their hands started it on Twitter or something.
Gary
November 30th, 2011
9:18 am
The voters are not going to flip two teams that are one loss and have a head to head. If LSU does not play, it isn’t going to be Alabama. That is why LSU plays no matter what. I do think OK State will pass Alabama if they win to avoid the rematch game. Regardless the outcome of the SEC is meaningless to anyone but Georgia fans. I hope we win but I have my doubts after the Vandy and Kentucky games. Decent defenses seem to trip us up pretty bad still. I don’t think we have seen anything like what LSU is bringing. That being said I think our Defense can shut down LSU as well if we do not screw up on offense and special teams and give them great field position.
WDE
November 30th, 2011
9:19 am
Hell I wish the Tide hadn’t dribbled down their pants leg at home vs LSU..we would beat the Tide by 10 points easy, it will take our best game of the year to have a chance a beating a LSU team that is clearly superior to the Tide this year…and Mark I love that we are getting the shot at the SEC title but there is no way we can beat LSU by 21 …..all I’m praying for is winning by 1.
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
9:20 am
Here is the thing:
SC ranks higher in BCS than UGA, SC doesn’t lose a single game to SEC East teams, SC has the same record as UGA. More importantly, SC holds a tie-breaker against UGA.
But, it’s UGA playing in SEC Champ game, not SC. All based on a technicality.
Isn’t the SECCG screwed? should be reformed?
MS. Bully
November 30th, 2011
9:20 am
Your either STUPID or NUTS. LSU is going to destroy UGA!!
Old School
November 30th, 2011
9:21 am
LSU probably has the best collegiate, defensive front seven I have ever seen. I doubt Murray will have time to blink. Those play action, deep drop pass plays simply won’t cut it. It may be close for a half but I see LSU winning by at least 10. I hope I’m wrong.
LSUTigerinATL
November 30th, 2011
9:21 am
Love the theories, but there is no way in hell LSU loses to Georgia! They’re too deep at every position and motivated like no other team. I think UGA may hang a bit in first half, then will get crushed in the 2nd half like all other opponents we’ve played this year. Sorry to burst your bubble!
munsondawg
November 30th, 2011
9:22 am
@alphare
SC lost 2 SEC games. Doesn’t matter if its east or west division.
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
9:24 am
Just got thru listening to the talking head “Experts” on ESPN and Saban/Gundy posturing for why they should be in the BCSNC game. It really does smell MB and always has.
The goal in any competitive sport that is going to declare a champion at the end of the season should be:
TO PLACE THE TWO BEST TEAMS IN A GAME OR SERIES AT THE END OF THE SEASON TO DETERMINE THE CHAMPION.
This is my position, regardless of confrence, schedule, previous head to head regular season, winning your confrence championship or not… BRING THE TWO BEST IN THE FINAL GAME TO DETERMINE THE CHAMP FOR THE YEAR. Anyone who doesn’t think this should be the goal, does not understand competative sports in my opinion.
The problem or controversy is: HOW DO YOU DETERMINE THE TWO BEST TEAMS?
The BCS system can not with any level of confidence pick two teams out of the NCAA field and say that these two ARE THE BEST.
Listen to the ESPN guru’s Herbstriet and Luganbill and they would want you to believe that BAMA and LSU are lightyears ahead of any other teams in the world and that it is so obvious that it is laughable. I call BS. How can these two KNOW this. One would think they wer GOD.
Is Bama better than OSU??? Who knows.
Was UGA better than LSU in 07? Who Knows?
(And it doesnt really matter because then, the same two EXPERTS/ESPN said you couldnt play in the NC game w/out winning your confrence.)
Bottom line, No BCS poll can sellect the two best out of the field especially with the 4-5 ESPN Experts talking their GODLY opinions and influencing the voters as they do. Their perceptions become reality. Much like the media’s perception became reality and we got Obama leading out country.
I am confident that a BCS type system could select a “best” 8-16 teams, and somewhere within that 8-16 would be the top 2-4 teams in football. Regardless of confrence, winning confrence, …. let the BCS choose 8-16 teams and then let the cream rise to the top in a PLAYOFF. Let ESPN crow all they want about who these 8-16 are. Doesnt really matter. I just want to know that the top 3-5 teams are in the field somewhere and let the teams and GOD determine who is the best!!!
Toccoa
November 30th, 2011
9:25 am
Do you have to be your conference champ to play in the NC. Not this year, I guess. We’ll see how it plays out next year. In ‘07 they said you had to be. They didn’t say GA couldn’t be in the NC because they lost by alot to TENN. They said it was because they weren’t SEC champs. They RULES blow with the drift of the TALKING HEADS BREATH. That year LSU lost their last game of the regular season and got in. This their saying they can lose to GA in the SECCG and still get in. This the tables were turned on Miles or Saban you can bet they would be CRYING FOUL just like MILES did in ‘07.
Davis
November 30th, 2011
9:25 am
Auburn scored 14 on Alabama, only 7 on Georgia. People don’t give this defense credit but against common opponents, Georgia’s D is better than LSU.
The Georgia offense can hit you with 5 receivers who have over 40 catches:
King, Bennett, Connelly, Charles, Mitchell
The Georgia offense has Crowell, Thomas, and playmaker Branden Smith at running back. That’s more speed than LSU has faced.
Special teams has Walsh and Butler and Boykin. And we will likely kick the ball away from LSU playmakers, making other guys beat us.
Richt is 3-3 vs. LSU, this game is not a lock.
Dawglasville
November 30th, 2011
9:25 am
tyler durden – Nothing “magical.” It’s a great story because our coach was probably a loss away from getting bounced. All we can do is play the games in front of us. That is LSU then Michigan, Houston, Michigan St. or Nebraska. Enjoy the LSU run and stop worrying about how the Dawg Nation feels about ours.
Jamaaliver
November 30th, 2011
9:25 am
D-1 College Football as a system is broken right now, from top to bottom. I hope we’re approaching a Tipping Point soon that will lead to a new process for big time college football.
For a good example of what amateur collegiate athletics SHOULD be, look no further than the FCS in what used to be D-1AA.
LSUTigerinATL
November 30th, 2011
9:25 am
LSU and Bama are the two best football teams this year…no other team even comes close! UGA will find out the hard way this Saturday.
t
November 30th, 2011
9:26 am
UGA = tallest midget in SEC east
WDE
November 30th, 2011
9:27 am
@Alphare you really ought to get over this East vs BCS rankings rant…the SEC West teams we played this year we beat.the SEC has two divisions when UGA,and UF were winning the titles no one cried . UGA won more SEC games than USC that is the be all and end all of the statement..
Gary
November 30th, 2011
9:27 am
Keep in mind that the same thing happens in a playoff system. In baseball, the Marlins won the WS twice, even though they did not win their division. The same thing happens in the NBA and NFL all the time. Sometimes its about who is playing their best at the right time of year. I would love to see Georgia upset LSU in the SEC championship game but it doesn’t bother me that they best they can do is the Sugar Bowl. If they had won their first two games, they would be playing for the NC. They didn’t, but still have a shot at the SEC which is a prize almost as good and something Alabama has no chance of claiming this year.
WE BETTER.
November 30th, 2011
9:27 am
28TH!!1
Whiskey Breath
November 30th, 2011
9:28 am
Look Mark, your scenario is possible, but not probable. Why waste your time?
It’s amusing how you and Jeff always have to pat the Ga people on the back. Is that part of the formula for success? How is this for a scenario? LSU wins big and going away? Gee, I must be a smart.
fitzgerald
November 30th, 2011
9:28 am
Unbiased opinion here. This is perhaps one of those seasons where one team, LSU, is one great football team and all others get in line. I see LSU beating Georgia and then beating the team they play for the BCS Championship. So, let’s reload for next season and start the debate all over again. Hopefully, smart brains will take over and get us into a playoff system pronto.
Dawglasville
November 30th, 2011
9:29 am
Alphare – You lost to a terrible Auburn team. Your team did very well this year and they look to be the toughest game on the schedule for us next year. You guys will probably play in the Capital One leaving us to play in the Outback. Isn’t that justice enough?
WDE
November 30th, 2011
9:30 am
@LSUTigerinATL I fear you are correct, however it will be an honor to get to play the legit no.1 team in the nation for the SEC title, tell your bunch to bring their best . To be the best you have to beat the best we are grateful for the opportunity.
DetroitBraves
November 30th, 2011
9:31 am
@Gbal, you’re right. They can’t know it. Actually, even with a playoff you don’t know that you have the two best teams at the end. Some years, just like the NFL, MLB and NBA, you clearly won’t have the two best teams at the end. But what you do know is that you have the two teams that advanced on the field to get there. Can’t be much more fair than that. Can dispute who the best teams really are but there is no disputing who won the games. The BCS people like to say the current system makes the regular season a playoff. First of all, that’s clearly not true. And secondly, if it is true then you can’t have a national title game featuring a team that didn’t even win its division. Again, isn’t Mark Cuban planning to blow this thing up? Good for him if he does. And if he can add buying the Braves to his to-do list all the better.
Bud
November 30th, 2011
9:31 am
Bobo…. Try Rambo at tailback.
ATLtiger
November 30th, 2011
9:32 am
MB you sir, are an idiot. LSU will not lose, and even if by some miracle the bullpups win, LSU will still play for another BCS title on 1/9/12. Mark it down.
Gbal
November 30th, 2011
9:33 am
DAVIS – IT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE BEST TWO TEAM IN THE NC GAME>>>> ALWAYS. Regardless of confrence. Should have been in ‘07 and should be in ‘11. BUT… The BCS (whos decission is driven by the media) can not with confidence, pick THE bes 2.
LSUTigerinATL
November 30th, 2011
9:34 am
“While all of Georgia’s defensive statistics look very impressive, one has to realize that the Bulldogs have only faced two teams all season whose offenses are ranked in the top-50.”
JDawg1785
November 30th, 2011
9:34 am
Weird as the BCS is (and has been), I just don’t see it happening. LSU is by far the best team in the country and has proven it on multiple stages already.
That being said, if Georgia did pull off the upset and Bama and LSU still played for the NC, it’d be pretty ridiculous to have two teams that didn’t win their conference playing for all the marbles.
J-Tag
November 30th, 2011
9:34 am
LSU will be investigated by the NCAA within six months; mark it down.
Robards
November 30th, 2011
9:35 am
Mark, It shouldn’t matter. How can you move Alabama ahead of LSU?? Forget about Oklahoma State. LSU has the far better non-conference resume. Also, 9-6. If ‘Bama has clinched a spot in the title game, then LSU has as well. The season matters. Not a game.
LSUTigerinATL
November 30th, 2011
9:35 am
The best keep getting better: “In football recruiting news, the nation’s top-rated quarterback, Gunner Kiel, whom I mentioned in yesterday’s morning report, returned to LSU’s campus yesterday, along with his parents, for an official visit.”
Dontavius Supremo
November 30th, 2011
9:36 am
The Tech fan referring to Georgia as “UGAG” must have been on dope last Saturday.
Alphare
November 30th, 2011
9:37 am
munsondawg & WDE,
whatever you argue for dawgs to be in SECCG is a technicality. If it’s not that technicality, SC should be in the game, not UGA.
Just think about it:
SC ranks higher in BCS than UGA, SC doesn’t lose a single game to SEC East teams, SC has the same record as UGA. More importantly, SC holds a tie-breaker against UGA.
LSUTigerinATL
November 30th, 2011
9:38 am
One last comment, Richt will be outcoached by Les Miles. That’s one other factor in this game that no one is mentioning. For all his crazy antics, Miles has turned into a fantastic coach and the players love him and play their best for him.
DAWG Fan In AL
November 30th, 2011
9:38 am
BCS: Big Crock of S—. The powers in charge came up with the BCS to try to solve the problem of determining a “Mythical” National Champion when that used to be decided by polls alone. So they came up with a one game playoff system instead. Now all of the arguments are about which two teams should be in the BCS playoff game. Notice how there’s never any arguing about who is the champion of the NFL?
joec4482
November 30th, 2011
9:39 am
YOU have Bumped your HEAD!!!