The Braves aren’t in this World Series, but they’ll make it soon
It didn't end well for Michael Bourn's team, but there's next year. (AJC photo by Hyosub Shin)
A World Series is set to begin Wednesday without the Atlanta Braves, which has been the case with every World Series this millennium. And I know some among you were so disgusted by the Braves’ collapse that you can’t see this team reaching the Fall Classic for the next thousand years, but that’s just disappointment talking. In truth, the Braves aren’t far away.
Last October, the Braves were one out from taking a 2-1 Division Series lead over San Francisco, which would win the World Series. This fall the Braves were two outs from forcing a play-in game against St. Louis, which just won the National League pennant. I know most of you wouldn’t have given a farthing for the Braves’ chances in such a game, but consider: The Cardinals would have started Kyle Lohse in Game No. 163, and in his two postseason appearances he’s 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA.
That said, the two seasons were different. In 2010, it was a wonder the diminished Braves steadied enough to slip into the playoffs. In 2011, the wonder was that they didn’t steady. The chief reason — well, that and the 8 1/2-game lead — that the Braves’ flop was so stunning was the composition of the club itself. From April through August, this looked every bit a playoff team.
Come February, it will look like one again. Relative to the other NL contenders, the Braves enter the offseason without much to do. The Cardinals have to re-sign Albert Pujols, and the Brewers need to keep Prince Fielder, neither of which might be possible. And the Phillies, who have won five division titles in succession, but who were gone in Round 1 this October, face the impending loss of Raul Ibanez and perhaps Jimmy Rollins and the injury rehab of Ryan Howard, who tore his Achilles on the final play of the final game.
The Braves? They need to secure a shortstop — Alex Gonzalez is a free agent and the prospect Tyler Pastornicky isn’t quite ready — but that’s about it. The bulk of this team’s decisions have to do with projection: Will Chipper Jones be healthy enough to play 100 games? Will Tommy Hanson’s shoulder be OK? Will Martin Prado remember how to hit? Will Jason Heyward remember he’s Jason Heyward?
The Braves didn’t really challenge Philly this season — they finished 13 games back — but that day is coming. Among the Phillies’ everyday eight, only Hunter Pence is under 30, and the touted outfield prospect Domonic Brown hasn’t done much. (If he had, the Phils wouldn’t have needed Pence.) The great rotation likewise has some age on it: Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt 34; Cliff Lee is 32. The Phillies weren’t built to win in 2015; they were built to win in it all in 2011, and they failed.
The Braves’ failure wasn’t one of composition — on paper, they had enough good players — as of follow-through. Some excellent hitters stopped hitting for bewildering stretches. The team has moved to help correct that by firing Larry Parrish, whose season as hitting coach was a bad idea that turned out worse, and next year we should get at least a partial answer to that great imponderable: Does a hitting coach really matter?
There wouldn’t seem to be a Braves’ buying spree coming this winter. Kenshin Kawakami is finally off the payroll, but Derek Lowe remains — for one year more at $15 million. The Braves might have enough money to re-sign Gonzalez for a short term at a modest price, but they surely can’t afford the big-name shortstops (Rollins or Jose Reyes) who’ll become free agents. Even so, will keeping Gonzalez and hoping for better elsewhere be enough to turn this team, which has won 180 games the past two seasons, into a bigger winner?
Yes, because they have a phalanx of young pitchers who are big-league ready. That’s the greatest currency there is, and Wren was right to hoard it at the trading deadline. But there will come a time when one or two of these pitchers will need to be moved — can’t really have a seven-man rotation — as simple asset management.
The Braves, believe it or not, are very close to a World Series. They’ll need to get beyond the memory of this season’s fold, but that’s why there’s an offseason. They had enough talent to win 89 games in a season when they didn’t hit a lick, and they have enough to offer in trade that they can go buy whatever they lack. If even a few of those hitters return to form, they won’t lack much. Why, they even have a leadoff man now. Can world domination be far behind?
By Mark Bradley
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383 comments Add your comment
Octoman
October 19th, 2011
6:49 pm
After the ass kicking they took at the Battle of Midway in WW II, the Japanese media/leaders were telling the people not to worry, Japan would conquer the world in just one more year. Well we know how well that turned out.
Instead of ajc sportswriters taking Liberty//J.S./Wren/Frodo to task for the monumental failure in 2011, we got ‘em writing hokum about how these same incompetents will conquer the baseball world soon. This is to try and divert our attention from the seriousness of the disaster that just happened. What do they think we are? A bunch of idiots?
Caseyatthebat
October 19th, 2011
6:50 pm
If this team doesn’t get one or two proven hitters they won’t do any better than they have. They never adjust in the box and they have way, way too many easy at- bats, never working the count. I think about a third of the games were two or three run games. Witnessing the playoff teams’ hitting, I don’t think the Braves could have beaten any of them. Excellent pitching still loses with no scoring and this team does not score. There’s a lot of ” ifs ” to this article…..if Heyward, if McCann, if Prado, if Chipper. I hope they all hit like Babe Ruth but let’s be realistic.
Bravesfan54
October 19th, 2011
6:50 pm
SC – “someone more versatile”? Hmm. Well, since 2002 Eric has played 357 games at 3B, 221 at 1B, 154 in left field, 152 in right field. By my count that’s all four corner positions.
Delbert D.
October 19th, 2011
6:59 pm
Any moves that are made should be toward contending in 2013, not 2012. Any success next year would be a plus. Jones’ health will fluctuate the lineup next year, and Lowe should not be a starter.
oldbird
October 19th, 2011
7:01 pm
Bradley, I love your work but crack kills. Lay down the pipe dude.
Gumbo
October 19th, 2011
7:07 pm
Mark,
Your are not REALLY serious, are you?? Remember, a mind is a terrible thing to waste. If you actually believe that, I am prepared to make a substantial wager at 2-1 odds in your favor that they will not get to the World Series in the next 2 years. Will consider 3 years.
Its hard to write a column every day, isn’t it. Sooner or later, you run out of even halfway intelligent things to say. You’re still my ATL fave, but JUST SAY NO! That stuff will kill you in the long run.
P B Orr
October 19th, 2011
7:07 pm
La Russa is a man’s man. Until we get a man’s man as manager, we’re going to suck like a girly man.
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 19th, 2011
7:08 pm
Hole in left, hole in right, a super ut in Prado, SS can be covered… Many questions.. And that’s just the roster.
DP
October 19th, 2011
7:15 pm
Another authoritative commentary from Wrong Way Bradley, who can’t even figure out what happened in the past (Georgia was the “class of the SEC” from 2003-05?) but can see into the future.
up north
October 19th, 2011
7:16 pm
I will call it right here and now. This Braves team will never, never make it to a World Series with Fredi Gonzales as the manager.
Driver 8
October 19th, 2011
7:20 pm
Mark,
Appreciate your optimism but after what we just witnessed your opinion is a pretty hard sell.
Should have saved that column for next February at the earliest. Not much evidence to support your thinking.
Short Term Memory
October 19th, 2011
7:24 pm
It’s amazing how a couple of weeks seems to erase the memory banks of some in the media.
Attention Atlanta Media!
The Braves had a historic collapse! You guys tell us a hitting coach isn’t going to matter that much yet you suddenly act like the cast of characters who folded like a house of cards is good enough not to do it again!
The Braves need to make some changes. Black Francouer is in right field and is going to play like black Francoeur meaning he is hype and no real production. Wren’s statement that he hasn’t wrapped up the starting job is a joke. Who are the Braves going to put out there to replace him? No one! They aren’t going to go out and get an outfield bat because the ATL media is already giving them a free pass on this year’s collapse and the ATL media is already in full, “Atlanta Braves PR Wing” mode.
It’s a couple of weeks after the embarrassment and suddenly it’s not so embarasssing huh?
They make some serious moves to this roster or they risk being chokers again next year. End of story!
BRAVESFAN
October 19th, 2011
7:33 pm
Less talking and more hitting needed from the team next year.
Ugh
October 19th, 2011
7:36 pm
Chipper is no longer something to hang our hats on.
That’s no slight to him. He is simply The Greatest Atlanta Brave Ever.
But production wide, he is simply not remarkable.
AVG: .275
HR: 18
RBI: 70
That’s Chipper.
Freddie Freeman ( A ROOKIE!!!!!) out hit Chipper in all three categories.
The only feared hitter in our lineup now is Dan Uggla. That’s it.
This lineup is not anywhere as good as some people want to believe.
Batcork
October 19th, 2011
7:36 pm
On paper our outlook is promising, if our starters stay healthy we can get a couple of good middle relievers (our relief corps this year fell off precipitously after O’Ventbrel).
For the second straight year, our offensive whole was much less than the sum of its parts on paper. If it happens a third straight year, it’s pretty conclusive the parts aren’t all they cracked up to be. Even when hitting at our best, we don’t have enough “tough outs” in our lineup. At our best, we punish most mistake pitches, (thinking particularly of Uggla and McCann). But strong pitching exposes the swing holes, poor pitch judgment, and frequent lack of patience that pretty much all of our hitters have. Philly and St Louis by comparison have a plethora of tough outs on their lineup cards. Prado looked like a tough out in 2010, not in 2011. Bourn looked like one when he first arrived, then he joined the rest of the crew in being an easy out, despite his speed. I applaud the change of batting coach, but the batting coach can only do so much to change the nature of veteran hitters.
I agree we should contend for post season consistently for years, based on our excellent pitching. I’m far from convinced that we will have enough “O” to take us the distance.
bob
October 19th, 2011
7:39 pm
Hope springs eternal.
I want to believe that there is a post season chance for next year but I do not see it in the mix.
First, CJ is a HOF player but he is no longer a 3 hole or 5 hole hitter. He is fighting too many nagging injuries and his mobility in the field is limited. How soon does he go on the DL?
Second, CK and JV will not repeat their saves again next year. Their arms are hanging down to their ankles from overuse. Can both recover over the winter?
Third, LF and RF are two big holes which will need to be improved or filled. I personally like speed over power in those spots. Will it be speed or power?
Fourth, the SP will have some challenges. Huddy had a solid year but he is a year older. Hanson has issues and JJ likewise has health issues. Can the young arms fill the void?
Fifth, BM is tired. He needs to move to third base (like Torre did) or the Braves need to give him more breaks during the season.
Personally, I think that the Braves are about three years away from a WS appearance. The team lost too much in the Tex deal (look at the rangers now) and lost too much money on the KK and DL deals to make any major investments.
And, what about the hitting!!! Who will lead these batters to the promised land?
See you next year.
e will hit
Bobbys' Booger
October 19th, 2011
7:40 pm
I am really happy to see the majority of comments showing a decent dose of reality with regards to the Braves management, roster and FO. That being said, I believe this article was written from some opium lair in the far east.
Management – after that EPIC FAIL more than LP should’ve been let go. FG is a bench coach at best.
Roster- Heyward is a true concern…the hole in his swing the size of a 3rd grader. McCann—hope that fail of the 2nd half wasnt eye sight related. Chipper – whatever…you can live with him at 120 games…hell at least he can put the ball in play. We strike out way too much…hopefully a real hitting coach will help that. When you look at all playoff teams other than STL and the RAYS…they all have real ML hitters…we have maybe 2. Have to hope Freeman doesnt catch old man disease like Heyward…I don’t think he will. Our pitching…two bullpen elbows are destined to fail from the overwork/abuse administered by our moronic manager. Starters- we have what 4? JJ – gotta DL till July so he can finish the season. Hanson…with that dart throwing delivery you are just asking for surgery. I think we have gotten max out of him….sad but most likely true. Lowe- good god, what is he good for…absolutely Nothin’. Beach and Minor have to step up #3 and #4. Hope Medlen can figure into the equation…he really is a gamer. Good team…but have to agree …no WS anytime soon with out a Braun type player or two.
FO- I really disliked FW at start, but have to say at least he makes moves. Bourn was a real good pickup, but like Julio Jones..,one guy can’t mask FAIL of many.
The DAWG
October 19th, 2011
7:52 pm
Get rid of Lowe, add FULL time big hitter at third, a younger speedster at short and hopefully the young guys don’t pull a Heyward and we can make it there next year
JHarber
October 19th, 2011
8:00 pm
as i stated in other post i left the braves inpring of 2010. i supported braves even when milwaukee, since frank wren took over braves as GM they have failed badly. if you look at what he done under pretence of short money brought in or traded for losers. everybody on these blogs should be able to see that. So why is everyone blamed but him. my cards are about to start. seeya
one fat angry fan
October 19th, 2011
8:02 pm
Heyward will never be good. He does not have a work ethic to be a talented major league player. He is exactly what Francouer was. BUST!
Larry
October 19th, 2011
8:04 pm
Tami: I read your blog about how great you think Chipper is. Did you work at Hooters several years ago?
Braves Man
October 19th, 2011
8:09 pm
Where are we going to hide Dereck Lowe?
Neverno
October 19th, 2011
8:14 pm
No, the Braves won’t win a WS any time soon…sure, they have the talent to win a WS, but not the makeup or heart. They are soft and lazy and blame “the baseball gods” for their losses…they are pathetic losers and haven’t been to a WS in over a decade…they aren’t going any time soon.
BravesfaninNashville
October 19th, 2011
8:15 pm
I sure hope the Braves front office aren’t at all in agreement with this article and hope against hope that all the things Mark Bradley spelled out here will happen. I think it’s more realistic to expect more injuries from Chipper, JJ and Hanson… and Prado is not the solution for LF. We need a bat with some thump in it. Nelson Cruz would have been a great trade this summer for JJ but we didn’t pull the trigger. We need to be proactive this winter and address OF and SS like we did the pitching the last few winters.
Neverno
October 19th, 2011
8:15 pm
Oh, and if they ever do make it back, they’ll probably just lose….got to continue that 0 for last 8 WS game record…they’ll just quit when it gets tough….this team is easy to hate.
Sonny Clusters
October 19th, 2011
8:19 pm
We was state championship and we know what it takes. The Braves could not win a game when they had to and this was game after game. The Braves organization has done a slick job of convincing the fans that the team plays championship baseball. They did this will little signs hung up in the outfield. In reality, they won nothing. The fans let them get away with that but now there has been an EPIC collapse. EPIC. Missing games with adductors and obliques and flu-like symptoms has become commonplace for the team leader. There seems no effort to man-up and play when the coincidental injury falls on Halladay or Lincecum’s day to pitch. That means the leader does not lead. When we was playing ball we always liked to try to win every game. Some games the Braves used a pitcher that offered them no chance to win. They made no excuses, just ran him out there. They’ll do that again. Watch and see. This organization just collapsed worse than anybody before. The little signs won’t do it anymore. “Mr. Schuerholz take down these signs.” When this team gets back from spring training they better be disciplined at the plate and know how to bunt and run the bases and hit the cutoff man. Honing their golf games won’t cut it anymore. This Clusters is frankly sick of the same old same old Atlanta Braves with no emotion and no effort to run all out on the bases unless you came from another organization. It’s not cool for Chipper to run all out so it must not be cool for Heyward either. This is a rant from an angry Clusters. Following an EPIC collapse will there be EPIC change? We are watching to see. Every fan should be watching for – demanding – change. It starts with admitting they are not champions of anything except making signs. Take down those silly signs! Especially that last one. What an embarrassment! We was never so embarrassed.
@___ISH___
October 19th, 2011
8:20 pm
That’s a great positive attitude you have there MB.. But I’m callin’ BS.
Sonny Clusters
October 19th, 2011
8:22 pm
Another thing . . . no more hugging and fanny patting. And no more cap tipping. And learn to hit behind a runner.
Fan of the Game
October 19th, 2011
8:25 pm
The Braves have got to add offense! Anybody can see that.
Sonny Clusters
October 19th, 2011
8:27 pm
Put Derek Lowe in the Tool Race and tell him to earn his money. He can be a screw. He screwed the fans this year. Please just pay Chipper and let him pinch hit occasionally. Keep him off the field since he no longer can go to his left or his right or even field balls that bounce and he loses in the lights. And AJC . . . find somebody else to interview. We’ve had years of “Uh, balls to the wall . . . ” Talk to somebody that can talk back better than a horse. What does Chipper know anyway? He doesn’t take his team to the Series. 0-5 with 3 strikeouts in his last balls to the wall game.
Sonny Clusters
October 19th, 2011
8:34 pm
Why doesn’t MARTA go to the Ted? Wouldn’t a decent organization address that and fight for it? Wouldn’t they do something about the parking issues and surrounding neighborhood? Put Derek Lowe in charge of security – he’s a big guy. Let him work closely with the State Patrol. They know each other. Find somebody to work with these pitchers whose arms are falling off. And why so many oblique injuries and hamstrings? Do these guys ever stretch for anything but a beer? We may sound angry but that’s only because the World Series could be starting in Atlanta tonight instead of St Louis. That was an EPIC collapse. EPIC. Time for EPIC change. Back up a bus. Load it up. Clean house. Take those silly little signs with you.
Wee Willie Keeler
October 19th, 2011
8:34 pm
The AJC writers continue to write just enough crap to line my bird cage.
Ralph
October 19th, 2011
8:36 pm
I cannot agree with MB, the braves will not be as good next year as they were this year and thats not saying much, they are another year away from being a legit contender for a WS title. In 2013 they will be rid of the payroll of worthless D Lowe and probably Over the hill Chipper and Tim Hudson will be washed up by then so there is a possible $45 million that they could put to good use. By then our crop of youngsters will be veterans and Jason will either be what he was suppose to be or he will be gone, Hanson shoulder will not last next season and neither will JJ’s knee so it ain’t gonna happen next year Mark.
NewnanRxDawg
October 19th, 2011
8:43 pm
Great the Bradley JINX. Expect 10 – 15 more World Series-less season Braves fans!
Perhaps our guys can overcome it.
panamajack
October 19th, 2011
8:46 pm
I say bring up all the young talent we have and get them ready for 2013 next season, pay D Lowe off and release him, no need wasteing a roster spot on him, use Chipper only as a pinch hitter, trade JJ, Hanson and Heyward if they can, I agree with Ralph, get this team ready for 2013.
Wetdirt
October 19th, 2011
8:49 pm
Mark, leave the coverage of the Brave’s to DOB. Your halfa** attempt to write a story about them just shows your lack of knowledge of the subject matter.
Bobbys' Booger
October 19th, 2011
8:50 pm
@Sonny C on the bright side at least we saw something EPIC right? Caesars reign was Epic. The building of the Pyramids…Epic. Wetting the bed night after night after night…10.5 games ahead of redbirds on August 25…0-3 against redbirds, 0-6 against Philly when it mattered, 0-5 to end the year. EPIC FAIL! …and we all had the privledge to witness it. Kindof like the UNbuilding of the Pyramids…what a joke of an organization IF they do not effect EPIC CHANGE!
Bobbys' Booger
October 19th, 2011
8:51 pm
Panama correct
Home School Drop Out
October 19th, 2011
8:51 pm
Mark:
I think Mr. Bobby Valentine said it best onESPN.
The Braves just don’t want to WIN.
Sonny Clusters
October 19th, 2011
8:51 pm
We watched Derek Lowe give up 9 hits and 6 runs in 2 1/3 innings and then Fredi started him again in a must win saying his experience was vital. His recent experience was 9 hits and 6 runs in 2 1/3 innings. Fans who think a little will realize that the team’s experience is year after year of not winning anything that matters. Those little signs in the outfield are counterfeit. There is no division pennant. The real pennant is the National League pennant and it is not a little wooden sign. Wake up, fans. Don’t accept anymore of this crap. EPIC collapse. EPIC.
Larry
October 19th, 2011
8:53 pm
Rowsdower
October 19th, 2011
5:28 pm
We have a 40 homerun man. His name is Dan Uggla. We need situational hitting. We can’t hit .150 with runners in scoring position and fail 80% of the time getting a runner in from 3rd with less than 2 outs and expect to win anything.
Bingo!
josh
October 19th, 2011
8:55 pm
I agree with Ralph and Panaajack, I also would trade our all star catcher since he should have great trade value, we need better defense behind the plate, forget about next year, build for the future.
Hy Ronatt
October 19th, 2011
8:55 pm
…maybe you should stick with the accounting. Unless of course you’ve got a Lion Tamer’s hat that lights up saying ‘lion tamer’ in great big neon letters, so that you can tame them after dark when they’re less stroppy.
Bobbys' Booger
October 19th, 2011
8:56 pm
@Sonny C…on the bright side we actually witnessed something EPIC. Like the Pyramids being built…Epic. Like the Kubla Khan and the Mongrol hoard invasions….Epic. Of course this bedwetting last six weeks of the season allowing redbirds to come from 10.5 back, this 0-3 vs StL, this 0-6 against Philly, this 0-5 finish to the season, this EPIC FAIL is kindof like the UNbuilding of the Pyramids. This organization better make EPIC CHANGES!
Lil' Barry Bailout
October 19th, 2011
8:57 pm
What are you smoking, Bradley?
The Braves proved this season that great starting pitching (and it wasn’t all that great–we were sold a bill of goods by management and the cheerleaders in the media) won’t get them to the playoffs.
Is their pitching going to be better next year than last? No.
Is their offense going to be better next year than last? If they bring in some major league hitters maybe. Will they? No. They have no money to spend.
Maybe you think they’re going to win it with defense?
Bobbys' Booger
October 19th, 2011
9:00 pm
@MB Will you tell us where your opium lair is located?
JHarber
October 19th, 2011
9:02 pm
for the braves to contend for wildcard, they will need overhaul of FO and roster, anyone that dont believe this better do research. check out manager while at it. But wren will have to go for much of a change.
What???
October 19th, 2011
9:02 pm
Mark,
Put the pipe down. The Braves are not close to a World Series. They don’t score enough runs. They were 10th out of 16 National league teams in the runs scored category. The Cardinals were first. The Braves were 14th in the league regarding on base percentage, pitiful. You have to help your great pitching staff a little better than this. I don’t see minor tweaks and the firing of the hitting coach solving our lack of run production problem anytime soon.
onlyonce
October 19th, 2011
9:03 pm
Mark Bradley, I think you just hit into a tripple play with the bases loaded.
Abnerish
October 19th, 2011
9:04 pm
I think the Braves need to keep Gonzalez at SS. He’s already said he would come back for one year and that would be the bridge we would need to get to Pastornicky. I would guess Pastornicky would be ready to join the big league club by midseason. Perhaps sooner if there’s an injury.
I think the rest of the 7 regulars are squared away except the corner outfielders. I think Prado and Heyward need to earn their spots and I believe Wren will bring in, either through FA or trade, an established name at the corner outfield spot. I honestly feel like Prado may be forced back into the utility infielder role next year and take Brooks’ place. I also doubt that we will see Hinske again. Looks like the good luck charm rubbed off (or perhaps it was shaved off!). Constanza and Jack Wilson (or another SS) would round out the bench.