At least the Braves have experience in win-or-blow-it games
Here's how it turned out last season. For reference purposes. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Looking on the bright side — and even finding a bright side takes concentrated effort — there’s this: If any team in the history of baseball knows how to win the 162nd game of a season behind Tim Hudson after losing two to the Phillies and entering Game No. 162 tied for the wild card after blowing a massive lead … well, the Braves are that team. Because they did it last season.
And that’s it. That’s all I’ve got. Rating the collapses, this season’s is much worse than last’s. The 2010 Braves ran out of everyday players; the 2011 Braves have run low on starting pitchers. Last year’s team had a hard time scoring for a pretty good reason; this team has a hard time scoring for no good reason.
Last year’s Braves lost a seven-game division lead because the Phillies got hot and got healthy (and got Roy Oswalt) and blew past them. This team has lost an 8 1/2-game wild-card lead to St. Louis, which was hot but is only 3-3 over the past six days and needed 23 players, eight of them pitchers, to override a five-run deficit against the 100-loss Astros on Tuesday.
So: Here we go again. One more game on the schedule, one game to assure these Braves of playing at least one more game after this.
Loading ...About the Cardinals: You’d have to think Chris Carpenter will win at Minute Maid Park tonight, but you’d have thought Carpenter would have beaten the Cubs on Friday and he could not. Carpenter was pulled after 93 pitchers for a pinch-hitter in a 1-1 game; the Cardinals yielded Alfonso Soriano’s winning three-run homer the next inning.
That Redbird loss pushed the Braves’ lead back to three games with five to play. They haven’t held it. Now they could face elimination if they don’t win tonight, but the way this stumbling chase is going they might lose to Philly and still get to play in St. Louis on Thursday. Indeed, for an hour or so Tuesday night it appeared the Braves — who trailed 7-0 — might take the wild card without actually winning another game. But the Cardinals rallied from 5-0 and 6-5 deficits, and here we are. Again.
Tim Hudson in the 162nd game. A team could do worse. For example: Derek Lowe in the 161st game — that was worse.
By Mark Bradley
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355 comments Add your comment
iowabrave
September 28th, 2011
11:56 am
for example: Derek Lowe in the 161st game- that was worse
That’s funny right there, I don’t care who you are!
But don’t you have to sort of feel bad for the guy? Yea, he’s making $15 mil, but he’s already a millionaire. Money probably isn’t the driving force for guys playing at his age. Getting treated like Micheal Spinks when the whole baseball world is watching is gotta be rough. Hope he had a hot wife to go home to that night. Or a good slumpbuster.
Mark Bradley
September 28th, 2011
11:56 am
Baseball Prospectus gives the Braves a 43 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s down from 98 percent a few weeks ago.
JoeMac
September 28th, 2011
11:56 am
I remember way back in April when alot of people predicted the Braves would end the Philly dynasty in the East. Well, looking good on paper is one thing. Looking good on the field…. well that is another thing.
Ted M
September 28th, 2011
11:58 am
Found it. Baseball Prospectus PO odds
St. Louis Cardinals 56.1%
Atlanta Braves 43.9%
I didn’t think it was gonna be 50/50
Brad Komminsk
September 28th, 2011
11:58 am
PLEASE do not force a 1 game playoff, Braves and put us out of our misery so we can move on with our lives. I’m a lifelong fan, but I’m pulling for a Braves loss and a Cards win tonight. The St. Louis Cardinals have a better chance at beating the Phillies, their manager plays aggressively to win, and their players play hard and with fire and a “never say die” attitude. Now THAT is a team worth supporting. The Braves don’t deserve any of their fans. I would love it if everyone boycotted the game tonight and the Braves had to play their last game in an empty stadium. I think Fredi will have to go. It would have been one thing to have a lousy year, but to implode like this? Not sure he can ever recover. This may very well have a lingering effect for years, actually. I know I have absolutely no interest in watching a single pitch from here on in.
Oddibe McDowell
September 28th, 2011
11:59 am
PLEASE do not force a 1 game playoff, Braves and put us out of our misery so we can move on with our lives. I’m a lifelong fan, but I’m pulling for a Braves loss and a Cards win tonight. The St. Louis Cardinals have a better chance at beating the Phillies, their manager plays aggressively to win, and their players play hard and with fire and a “never say die” attitude. Now THAT is a team worth supporting. The Braves don’t deserve any of their fans. I would love it if everyone boycotted the game tonight and the Braves had to play their last game in an empty stadium. I think Fredi will have to go. It would have been one thing to have a lousy year, but to implode like this? Not sure he can ever recover. This may very well have a lingering effect for years, actually. I know I have absolutely no interest in watching a single pitch from here on in.
JoeMac
September 28th, 2011
11:59 am
Mark, I believe you used the ridiculous 98% to write your laughable article a few weeks ago. If you had actually opened your eyes and watched an Atlanta Braves game, you would have never written that article. The handwriting has been on the wall for many weeks. Told you St. Louis would catch the Braves.
SR
September 28th, 2011
12:00 pm
Amen to that Larvell and let’s add, “We hit the ball hard”, “We had our chances”, “We still have one more game” etc. What they should say is, ” We suck and we have set a new standard for choking”.
shankit
September 28th, 2011
12:00 pm
Bring up the Gwinnett Braves for the final game, including their manager.
DetroitBraves
September 28th, 2011
12:00 pm
Heyward seems to have become the symbol of all that is wrong with this team while Constanza represents all that went right. Both is overstated and not particularly fair. That said, Heyward underperformed and Constanza the opposite (though Heyward may have played his best ball in September). But at any rate, no matter what you may think of those two the truth is that Heyward didn’t come anywhere close to sinking this team alone, and a million Constanza’s couldn’t save it. Going forward the pitching looks to be there but the Braves have some serious questions to answer about the other 8 positions. For those saying Lowe should be traded, Wren has reportedly tried to do just that several times but there are no takers. And for those that say Heyward should be traded, there would be 29 takers. Not saying I’m happy with his season either but getting past the emotion of it all there are 29 objective GMs out there that would be on the phone the second they found out Heyward was available.
P Rose
September 28th, 2011
12:01 pm
dongkumong, in 2001 the Braves attendance was 2,823,494, while the Phillies was 1,782,054. It’s easy to sell tickets when you have the highest payroll and the best record in the league. Stop your crowing.
Dr Henry
September 28th, 2011
12:02 pm
This is unbelievable – even the umpires are trying to help us and we can’t take advantage of bad calls – We continue to swing at the 1st pitch no matter where it is and take call strikes for outs – player after player walks back to the dugout after a ko or a weak grounder to 2nd with his head down carrying his bat….somebody get mad!!!!! DO SOMETHING OUT OF CHARACTER!!!!! It matters not that Derek Lowe can’t pitch any more because we absolutely CANNOT SCORE!!!! I’m a longtime Braves fan but tonight I will be pulling for the Cards and Phils to win because I can’t watch any more of this season.
BaseballBuff
September 28th, 2011
12:03 pm
@MarvinMangrum I agree with you about Jose Constanza. Somebody at the top ordered that Heyward be played instead of him. I have heard no other good reason for it. It’s not fair to Constanza and it’s not fair to the team. Sorry Jose. You have been treated poorly and deserved better, given your fine level of play and effort. This is real life and real life is often not fair in that politics instead of results can determine who gets the breaks.
DetroitBraves
September 28th, 2011
12:03 pm
I believe Baseball Prospectus has looked at the Braves maximum playoff expectancy and found that if they do indeed fail to make it this would qualify as the 5th worst collapse in baseball history. Though I’m not sure how the Red Sox would fit into that equation. Being merely the sixth worst collapse wouldn’t be much consolation so it probably doesn’t matter.
Baseball has been around for a long time.
Ted M
September 28th, 2011
12:04 pm
Do you think the only reason the odds are not 50/50 is because the Cards have home field advantage in the 1 game play-in game?
JMac1203
September 28th, 2011
12:05 pm
Mark, I guess you used that 98% prediction as basis for your article a few weeks ago proclaiming the Braves the wildcard team. If you had actually watched them play, you would have seen the handwriting that was on the wall weeks ago. I told you the Cardinals would catch the Braves.
NO MORE PARRISH
September 28th, 2011
12:06 pm
The fact we are in this position is sickening. Not if we can do it or not.
Bill Donohoo
September 28th, 2011
12:08 pm
Disappointments:Prado, Heyward, McCann, Uggla, Lowe.
I spoke with a Scout last year about McCann and he said McCann should keep catching. I say he is wearing down and we are wasting a good bat. Put him in LF, we have no LF and he can’t be any worse than when Yogi played LF for the Yankees. McCann is OK at defense but not in the top 30% as far as defense.
Is Heyward another Francouer? Is Uggla a 230 hitter or 280 to 290 hitter? Can Uggla hit with men on base? Is Prado a 300 hitter or 260? Baseball has had many teams who touted their great young pitchers, but more often than not , those never came around.
Don’t know about Fredi-just a Cox clone. Don’t understand starting Lowe and not playing Constanza.
However, it has been a complete team collaspe-everyone is to blame-can’t think of anyone who stepped up except maybe Hudson.
DetroitBraves
September 28th, 2011
12:12 pm
@TedM, Baseball Prospectus factors homefield in to their projections but it is much more than that. My guess is that now that they are even they give the Cardinals the advantage because a game #163 would be there, because the Cardinals are a fundamentally better team (+62 run differential vs. +37), and because their opposition tonight is much worse than Atlanta’s. All that said, there is so much variability in baseball you could almost do as well predicting the outcome based on a coin flip. There is a reason they play a 162 game season. But BP isn’t paid to flip coins, hence the unflattering number.
REDIRD
September 28th, 2011
12:13 pm
face it Braves World. The Cardinals clinch tonight. Better start hoping those dirty Falcons can pull something off. The only thing that was more painful than watching the Braves collapse was how quick the fans turned on them. Atlanta knows nothing about baseball.
DetroitBraves
September 28th, 2011
12:14 pm
McCann loses a tremendous amount of value in leftfield, both based on the expectations for a bat there relative to a catcher and the expectations that, while not centerfield quality, a leftfielder move faster than a cement mixer.
billy bob
September 28th, 2011
12:16 pm
LAW-YER BALL! LAW-YER BALL! LAW-YER BALL!
get em on get em over get em in.
Bourn-e-o sucks lately what good is a leadoff hitter who cannot get on base? come on fans, lets all chip in to the pot and try to buy the Braves a win, only way it’s gonna happen.
BaseballBuff
September 28th, 2011
12:19 pm
@ RichT The Braves have broken my heart many times also, bud, quite a few times while having the most talented team in the MLB. This is the chokingest franchise in MLB.
Heyward grounds out to second
September 28th, 2011
12:23 pm
Pitching has been below par (Lowe has sucked), but the offense has been absolutely pathetic.
I think somehow we pull this game out. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t. Huddy pitching is the only reason I think we have a shot.
Let’s hope that The Astros hold on.
Because if the Cards win, either way we’re screwed. We lose, we’re done. We win and they win, well… there’s no chance in hell we go in there and beat them in their house.
Leading Off: What a Finish for the Baseball Season | Il Neurone USA
September 28th, 2011
12:24 pm
[...] night’s call opposite Philadelphia, it has begun to feel like “Bull Durham” in reverse. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Bradley mined a conditions for a splendid mark and motionless that during slightest a Braves have been here [...]
P Rose
September 28th, 2011
12:24 pm
REDIRD, I’ll concede that St. Louis is a great baseball town; in fact, it’s the best outside of the Northeast. But coming onto another town’s blog and kicking their fans while they’re down does not represent the class one usually expects from a Cardinals fan, but of course there are always exceptions to be found. By the way, why don’t you insert a “B” into the middle of your username. That would make it sound a bit less REDIRDED.
ShaunC
September 28th, 2011
12:26 pm
Here’s to the Phillies not wanting to play the Cards.
Oblunder
September 28th, 2011
12:29 pm
Hey, all of you out there that’s blaming Irene for starting this collapse- You’re stealing my excuse for why the economy’s bad!
Darth Hater
September 28th, 2011
12:30 pm
If Atlanta doesn’t have enough reasons to WANT TO beat the Phillies already…
Michael Vick, the dog-killing-thug-degenerate felon who likes to play “Secret Santa” to unsuspecting women with his Herpes, is now a Phillies fan and constantly wears their team colors.
Darth Hater
September 28th, 2011
12:31 pm
Put a Tomahawk through the Phillies’ season and The Felonious Vick’s inarticulate skull, Atlanta!
LET’S GO, BRAVES !!
Ted M
September 28th, 2011
12:32 pm
yeah must be because:
Tampa Bay Rays 51.8%
Boston Red Sox 48.2
They have this match up much closer. and Rays have home field today & in the play-in gam
rickman
September 28th, 2011
12:36 pm
PLEASE LOSE AND GO HOME…I CAN NOT TAKE IT ANYMORE!!!!
FEAR
September 28th, 2011
12:38 pm
So what time do they guys Tee off tomorrow?
Brave New World
September 28th, 2011
12:40 pm
If this can cheer you a bit …..
Brett Myers haven’t lost a game since Aug 22nd . and he won 4 straight games… he is on a roll
Pretty good chances that we clinch today.., If Braves can put together a few runs early in the game we can put all kindsa pressure on the CARDS
Phils fan
September 28th, 2011
12:41 pm
…the braves are America’s Team?? very funy…
VABravesFan
September 28th, 2011
12:46 pm
The optimist’s premonition:
Braves take a 1-1 tie to the bottom of the 9th, and Brooksy hits a walk off pinch hit homer.
Cardinals and Astros are tied at 4 in the bottom of the 9th, and Jordan Schafer scores from third on a suicide squeeze.
The Braves have been dead offensively all month – time to put one good performance together, maybe two, and finish this thing out. I don’t like LaRussa or the Cardinals anyway.
8dogman
September 28th, 2011
12:47 pm
The braves will lose tonight and the cardinals will win and they can limp home. They don’t deserve to win the WC after the way they have played the past month. If they should pull it out then they will lose 3 straight to the Brewers and still have the opportunity to embrass their few fans even more so let them go on home. This is shaping up just like I predicted about 2 weeks ago in another blog. I said they would win one in Florida, get swept in Washington (they did pull out one game) and then get swept by the Phillies. I missed my prediction by one game. The phillies bench is much better than what the braves put on the field. I just quit watching the games after this past weekend. I didn’t look at any of the game last night and don’t plan to tonight either. I just get so irratated watching this helpless bunch. Prado needs to be benched tonight and let Constanza play. He couldn’t be any worse. Everybody knew the braves would lose last night with Lowe pitching except the manager. In the playoffs they would be a joke. I agree with rickman above, PLEASE LOSE AND GO HOME.
Phils fan
September 28th, 2011
12:50 pm
..brett myers is crazy enough to throw a complete game shutout. or give up 8 runs in 2 2/3inns. you never know with this guy. if the braves can’t score against blanton they don’t dederve to get in.
Brave New World
September 28th, 2011
12:52 pm
One thing for sure….., If there is one Potent Lineup that can face Phillies rotation then it is Cardinals, Pujols, Holliday, Berkman, Molina, Furcal are really solid, and then they have solid performers under pressure like Punto…, So if you are Phillies hater then be happy that if Braves don’t make it then it is cards who are making the WC and not some other team that Phillies can beat the crap out of them
Braves Fan in Beantown
September 28th, 2011
12:52 pm
Can’t believe all the Yankee fans in Boston today. About as many as there are Astros fans in Atlanta. I wish the Braves showed half the fight those ‘Stros did the past two nights. WOAH!
Abnerish
September 28th, 2011
12:53 pm
What would be truly painful would be for the Braves and Cards to lose tonight and be forced to watch the Cards destroy us in STL. That would extend the misery one more night.
Not that I’m blaming the hurricane for this extended slump, but prior to that the Braves were rolling. Playing great baseball. They take 3 days off and they have never recovered.
Highlands
September 28th, 2011
12:54 pm
Anybody else think we don’t deserve it, even if we do get there? Just curious.
Phils fan
September 28th, 2011
12:54 pm
cards going down regardless. the braves are making them way better than what they actually are. the brewers are the toughest matchup followed by the arizona then the cards. young team or not, the phils don’t play well out west. see nlcs last year and results out in arizona in recent seasons.
Steve
September 28th, 2011
12:55 pm
Any chance Fredi Gonzalez and Frank Wren get fired after this melt-down? One can only hope.
Brave New World
September 28th, 2011
12:55 pm
Phils fan,
I totally agree, If Braves can’t score against Blanton, Worley and whoever the “Old man” is planning to send to the mound tonight then they don’t deserve a playoff spot.
Brave New World
September 28th, 2011
12:59 pm
Steve,
Absolutely no chance .., both will be back next season. Honestly there is nothing wrong with those two.., They fielded the best team they can in the budget. If Lowe doesn’t pitch well or Heyward groundsout to 2B for the 300th time they can’t do anything about it ..
There is a chance that they fire the Hitting coach… and probably any one on the fitness team etc..
VABravesFan
September 28th, 2011
12:59 pm
Can’t say the team doesn’t deserve it if they make it. They may keep playing like they have the past month and they may not. Maybe the World Series will end up being between the Red Sox and Braves – who knows?
John D
September 28th, 2011
1:00 pm
Kind of surprised at the pass McCann has gotten this year. BMac has been terrible since the break – so the idea he is just recently slowing down doesn’t hold up. As for Uggla – I’d actually be fine with a 2nd baseman hitting .240-.250 – IF he hits 30 HR and drives in 85 runs (Sabremetrics aside).
This team has 2 primary needs – A pitching coach (seems like we’ve had starters and relievers breakdown constantly the last 2 years -McDowell is the constant). A LF who hits for average and power – ruling out Costanza – and can play 150 games/year -not easy to find. Prado then becomes the Omar Infante player who can play 5 positions and get more rest through the season for guys like Chipper, Uggla, Freeman, whoever is in LF. Maybe he can learn to catch and handle the pitching staff.
Finally – Hanson needs to show.. I’m concerned that Hanson may really be a 3rd or 4th starter – not a 1 or 2. He seems to have arm trouble each of the last 3 years (McDowell???) which costs him starts/innings – and velocity.
Phils fan
September 28th, 2011
1:01 pm
anyhting is possible. but redsox aint beating texas and the atl starters can’t go more than 5-6 inns on avg
KJ
September 28th, 2011
1:02 pm
If I’m Philly, I’m probably tanking tonight’s game, because I WANT the Braves in the playoffs.
Also, LOL @ the cute little gnat talking trash about UGA in a completely unrelated blog. How about you beat them more than once a decade, THEN you can talk.