Live from Braves-Phillies: A playoff series to reach the playoffs
A tight-lipped Fredi Gonzalez before tonight's titanic tilt. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
One game up, three to go. If the Braves take two of three from Philadelphia, they’ll be assured of playing beyond the 162nd game — even if it’s a Thursday play-in in St. Louis. If they sweep the Phillies, this nose-diving team will have bounded into the playoffs and all those who’d dismissed their chances will conveniently forget those dismissals.
“We still control our own destiny,” Chipper Jones said, speaking late Monday afternoon. And it’s true. They do, at least for the moment. But the colder truth is that these Braves haven’t controlled much of anything since Labor Day.
The Braves led the wild-card chase by 8 1/2 games on Sept. 1. They’ve won two of the eight series since, and one of those two wasn’t really a series: It was a doubleheader in New York rescheduled from the washed-out Irene weekend of August. On Sept. 1, these Braves won their 81st game. Twenty-two games later, they still haven’t reached 90 victories.
The past week has been spent asking where this would rank among epic collapses over the fullness of baseball history — worse than the ‘69 Cubs or the ‘78 Red Sox or the ‘64 Phillies? — but this caveat needs to be attached: All those teams had to win their division/league to reach postseason; these Braves have only to finish first among runners-up. And they’ve spent a month casting doubt on their capacity to achieve even that.
Some of this has been bad luck: When you lose your two best starting pitchers, you’re going to feel it. The Braves are trying to make the playoffs with a rotation that includes three rookies, which nobody can remember happening, and if they get there it’s unclear who, if anyone, will start the games in the Division Series. But that’s a different discussion for (perhaps) another day.
At issue now: Can the flagging Braves steel themselves for three days more? Game 1 didn’t figure to be easy: The Braves were scheduled to face Cliff Lee and the full complement of Phillies starters Monday night, and in a weird way that didn’t seem a mismatch. Because the Braves, who’d won four of their past 10 games, had actually been the hotter of the teams.
The Phillies clinched the National League East on Sept. 17. They then lost their next eight games. Yeah, they’ve been resting guys, but still: Is that the way to prepare for the playoffs? (One thing the Phillies’ skid did do was yield another of baseball’s bizarre benchmarks: This became the first team ever to lose eight straight after winning its 98th game.)
At their September nadir, the Braves have only lose four in a row. They haven’t been winning much, but they’ve won just enough to stay in front. That might sound like the faintest of praise, but it’s still something to note: With three games left, you’d rather be ahead than behind.
Said Jones: “We’ve had more than enough opportunities to walk off the field with wins that would have put this away long ago.”
They have, absolutely. But they haven’t blown this yet, and there’s no guarantee they will. “We have to treat this as a playoff series,” Jones said.
Then, asked about the mood in the locker room: “The locker room’s fine. The dugout might get a little tight at times.”
Someone wondered if Jones, who’s 39, still gets nervous. He smiled. “I don’t really get nervous,” he said. “I break it down to its simplest form: It’s the game of baseball; I’ve done this thousands and thousands of times.”
In his star-spangled career, Chipper Jones has seen everything — a World Series title, an MVP season in which he essentially decided a tight race, 13 playoff appearances. But he has never seen his Braves blow an 8 1/2-game lead in September and miss the postseason. If it happens, this would be a first.
But it might not happen. They might just ride out the worst ride of their lives. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Braves awoke Monday with a 71.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s probably better than they deserve, but in baseball as in life, you don’t always get what you deserve.
And with that, the floor is again open for questions, comments and prophecies of doom. I welcome your input. I value your company. I appreciate your insights.
OK, enough. Join me, won’t you? And I thank you, as ever, in advance.
By Mark Bradley
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835 comments Add your comment
Big Wally
September 26th, 2011
6:34 pm
Worlds shortest books. “How to manage a Championship Team” by Fredi Gonzalez. “Situational Hitting” by Larry Parrish, “How to stay in shape for Septemeber stretch run” by Brian McCann.
Dennis Reynolds
September 26th, 2011
6:34 pm
NOBODY at the stadium. How embarrassing. These guys probably hate playing for this city.
At least they get to hear Cotton-Eyed Joe every 7th inning. That probably gets them fired up!!
coach
September 26th, 2011
6:35 pm
sorry for the multiple posts
Larry
September 26th, 2011
6:35 pm
All season we have been fed hope and promise but in September reality stepped in and kicked us in the butt.
Runnin With The Dawgs
September 26th, 2011
6:35 pm
One game playoff in case of a tie. Wow! The whole season coming down to one game. May be a good time to bring Jurrjens back if he’s ready.
NorCal Brave
September 26th, 2011
6:38 pm
Short of an extraordinary job by the offense, our season ends Wednesday. For weeks upon weeks we’ve failed in run-scoring opportunities. You just can’t use bad luck with injured pitchers as an excuse. Minor, Delgado, and to a certain degree Beachy, have given all they can to stabilize the situation. We never hit much when JJ and Hanson were healthy either.
rickman
September 26th, 2011
6:39 pm
Come on Mark..Late arrivals?? Do you realy think anyone wants to watch this team now?? I simply can not watch them anymore this year…Just too painfull!!
George Stein
September 26th, 2011
6:40 pm
Can someone – anyone! – give a legit reason why Fredi continues to trot Prado out in the number two hole? He pulled Heyward when he was struggling in favor of the “hot hand” and now won’t do the same to Prado in favor of Heyward. What a complete fool.
VinceVanGo
September 26th, 2011
6:42 pm
This Braves team is about to go down as the “Famous 2011 Chokers” to be remembered in baseball forever. I know Chipper’s probably going to be in the Hall of Fame but let him add that label to his trophy mantle. I just wish there was a way(maybe an asterisk in the record books) that would identify Freeman, Hudson, Uggla, Bourn, Kimbrel, Venters, O’Flarehty, Constanza, and Delgado as team members that should not be associated with the “Choker” label. But the Manager and G.M. also deserve this tag since they are also both responsible for this mess. Fredi has not impressed overall in his first season and he has no fire in his belly, so why should the players. Buck Showalter would have turned this team around long before now. And under Wren’s control, other than the Bourn trade he hasn’t made another good trade or signing in his tenure. The Braves have been competitive since he arrived because of their minor league system and he had nothing to do with that. I hope the Braves big brass decides that’s it’s time for a change in the G.M. position and possibly in the Manager position. Maybe give Fredi one more year to see if this year was a fluke or if his years in Florida was the best he can do.
Chipper
September 26th, 2011
6:43 pm
We will crush the Phillies tonight.
MitchC
September 26th, 2011
6:43 pm
Mark, unless I missed your post, what I didnt see was what your prediction is about the outcome.
Right now, the Braves are just pathetic, and, with the so-hot Cards playing the pitiful Astros, things dont seem to be going in our favor.
I keep wavering between what I think is going to happen. I think the least likely scenario will be us winning the WC outright before Wednesday. I think we will either have a one game playoff, won by the Cards, or our season will be over on Wednesday as the Cards win the WC outright by then.
Sorry, but as much as I want to hope we can pull it off, I just dont see it happening with how things are going right now.
Chipper
September 26th, 2011
6:43 pm
Enter your comments here
Bravos
September 26th, 2011
6:44 pm
Win three and we are in!
Oh wait, Lowe pitches tuesday
Scratch that!
Runner-
September 26th, 2011
6:44 pm
“We still control our own destiny”
Yes you do Chipper, but how’s that been going? Braves are gonna choke these last three games as the Cards will win with ease. Fredi messed up by taking Constanza out while he was hot and playing Heyward instead, listening to the fans instead of going with his gut. When Constanza was hot, we were hot, it was great baseball to watch. It’s back to the old Braves with this team… unbelievable.
Dennis Reynolds
September 26th, 2011
6:45 pm
rickman…i feel you thats its painful. But thats sports, pal. You don’t just give up on a good team when things aren’t going right. Thats the problem with sports in Atlanta.
ITS GIVE AND TAKE!!! You want winning teams? GO TO SOME GAMES! Some argue that they need to win first before they spend their hard earned money. Well we have the potential to win now. THAT should be enough to motivate fans to get out to the park. Atlanta will never be known as a great sports town because it doesn’t have great sports fans. THE epitome of fair weather fans here in Atlanta. Or Hot-Lanta. Or The ATL. How embarrassing.
Pete*
September 26th, 2011
6:45 pm
Mark: “Some of this has been bad luck: When you lose your two best starting pitchers,……”
Mark is Hudson still on the Braves, or he get traded, or?
MitchC
September 26th, 2011
6:46 pm
I think I may have mentioned this before on this blog, but.. I live in PA where I get the Philly TV stations. Charlie Manuel told the media in Philly that his players wont be mailing these games in. He said they owe it to both the Braves and the Cards to play hard, and try to win the games. So, even in their minds, the Phillies wont be looking at it as “We already clinched, so it doesnt matter if we get beat three times by the Braves”. If the Braves want wins in this series, they are going to have to earn them.
Days of Wine & Rojas
September 26th, 2011
6:46 pm
Buck up little campers. Uncle Charlie Manuel might just rather see y’all in the playoffs than those mighty mighty redbirds.
Ghost of '82 Braves
September 26th, 2011
6:47 pm
3 and out.
James
September 26th, 2011
6:48 pm
Even if the Braves made the playoffs they would lose to the Brewers in the first round cause the Braves don’t have pitching and the Brewers do and the Brewers are very good at home and we would be hosting the braves for the first 2 games.
STEELY DAN MAN
September 26th, 2011
6:48 pm
SOMEBODY’S GOTTA PULL A ZAMBRANO ….. MAYBE CHIPPER OR HINSKE OR FREDI. START A FIGHT THROW AT SOMEBODY ….. ANYTHING TO GET THE BLOOD PUMPING ! WE’RE JUST TOO COOL & CALM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
James
September 26th, 2011
6:49 pm
they I meant
jester
September 26th, 2011
6:50 pm
There done, hopefully with the offseason starting middle of the week, will dump lowe and Sum of his overpaid salary; SIGN BOURNE LONG TERM look to the future! GO BRAVES NEXT YEAR!
Dennis Reynolds
September 26th, 2011
6:54 pm
You fans who are just waiting for next year are not fit to even call yourselves sports fans. You’re probably the same people saying the Braves have to passion of heart. Take a look at yourselves, “Braves fans”.
Freddi Boomhauer
September 26th, 2011
6:54 pm
Yeah man, I tell ya what, man. That dang ol’ Internet, man. You just go on there and point and click. Talk about W-W-dot-W-com. An’ lotsa nekkid chicks on there, man. Click. Click. Click. Click. Click. It’s real easy, man.
Ghost of '82 Braves
September 26th, 2011
6:54 pm
The only players that will throw a game are on the Braves, not the Phillies. I doubt if the Phillies would be rattled by facing the Cards. Braves are uptight just facing the Nationals. If they Braves won’t compete against the Nationals, why would compete against the Phillies?
Adairsville Dawg
September 26th, 2011
6:54 pm
win 1st one tonight and win again tomorrow night, thats called a winning streak. It has been done before and it can be done again.
Please for the love of all thats holy stop with the Constanza garbage. Hes a 9 year minor league journey man. Yeah he had a hot 2 weeks but since then hes been cold as ice at the plate. I know its been limited at bats but still its the major leagues and teams view video tapes of hitters and make the necessary adjustments…..except the Braves.Larry Parrish only adjusts his cup in the dugout, although not sure why because hes like the rest of this bunch no testicualr fortitude!!!
Dennis Reynolds
September 26th, 2011
6:55 pm
Go take a look at Boston’s fan blogs. Those are real fans. You think they’re saying “they’re done”, “we need to dump Lackey”, “this team isn’t even good enough to call themselves a playoff team”? No, they aren’t. Because they are real, not only Sox fans, but sports fans in general.
MitchC
September 26th, 2011
6:56 pm
Mark, one other thing:
You mentioned epic collapses in baseball history, but you omitted one,. As someone who despises the Mets, its one I have loved to tease my friends who are Mets fans about, and may end up now eating my words for.
2007: Mets 7 games up in the division with 17 games to play. Phillies overtake them, and win the division by one game.
Granted, there was more season left when this Braves collapse has happened, but, I’m just hopeful that I’m not eating my taunting words about the 2007 Mets, come this Wednesday around 10pm eastern
Sonny Clusters
September 26th, 2011
6:56 pm
One time Coach tossed us a Dilly Bar and we lost it in the lights! We was never so embarrassed. When that Dilly Bar hit the ground and got infield dirt all over it we remained calm and composed and we just picked up that Dilly Bar and looked over at the other team’s dugout and took a big bite, Dilly Bar, dirt, and all. We didn’t even stop at the stick. We ate that, too. Showing toughness to the other team makes it easier to play winning baseball. We would never want ‘em to see us hugging in the dugout and patting each other on the fanny.
Adairsville Dawg
September 26th, 2011
6:56 pm
FireLibertyMedia.com
Ghost of '82 Braves
September 26th, 2011
6:58 pm
Boston has won 2 World Series with their manager. How many has Fredi Gonzalez won?
todd grantham
September 26th, 2011
6:59 pm
Mark, why will the tie breaker be played in St Louis?
Truck Drivin Man
September 26th, 2011
6:59 pm
Truck Drivin is my game and I’m with Chipper and the Braves. Go Braves! Go Astros!
todd grantham
September 26th, 2011
7:00 pm
if the crowd is late arriving, how can one tell if they will show up?
Dennis Reynolds
September 26th, 2011
7:01 pm
0…
Ok. Brilliant example. I think Fredi is a moron as much as anyone. Thats not the point….
Atlanta fans suck. Flat out.
WestOfAthens
September 26th, 2011
7:01 pm
How will these Barves fare IF, IF they even survive these next 3 games?
NOT good, it becomes too obvious game after game after….
corey
September 26th, 2011
7:01 pm
Dennis Reynolds… are you at the game tonight?
Runnin With The Dawgs
September 26th, 2011
7:02 pm
It ain’t over ’till it’s over, so I’m hoping for a win tonight and I’m pulling for the Houston. By the way you can keep up with the St. Louis Houston game on AJC gametracker.
Phils 2011 WS Bound!!!
September 26th, 2011
7:03 pm
HAHAHAHAAH…You call yourselves fans??? More Phillies fans at the park than Braves’ fans!!!!
You don’t deserve a playoff berth!! GO CARDS!! THeir fans DESERVE a winning team.
Quit skinnin’ yer deer for a lil while and get to the park, ya stinkin rednecks@!!!
Michael Bournehauer
September 26th, 2011
7:05 pm
Phils 2011 WS bound is going to grow up without anyone to love, and die friendless and alone like Weird Al Yankovic.
Runnin With The Dawgs
September 26th, 2011
7:06 pm
“GO BRAVES”! “GO ASTROS”!
Joe
September 26th, 2011
7:06 pm
you’re really pessimistic, and i dont like it very much.
Phils 2011 WS Bound!!!
September 26th, 2011
7:07 pm
Nice one!! What are you doing home tonight???? Drinkin yer Bud Light and beatin on yer wife when the Braves give up a run? HAHAHA What a pathetic city!!
Ive seen bigger crowds at your local Waffle House at 3 am than this!!!
Sonny Clusters
September 26th, 2011
7:07 pm
Atlanta fans must have flu-like symptoms and are sitting this one out.
Mark Bradley
September 26th, 2011
7:08 pm
About to go here. Might get a rain delay.
Tbraves
September 26th, 2011
7:09 pm
Predictions tonight?
I say
Phils 3
Braves 1
Tbraves
September 26th, 2011
7:10 pm
About to go here. Might get a rain delay.
That might be good to get Lee out of the game
I got gout
September 26th, 2011
7:10 pm
Hey folks what network is carring the game tonite?
Hank Gwinnett
September 26th, 2011
7:10 pm
You can’t just pick and choose which laws to follow. Sure I’d like to tape a baseball game without the express written consent of major league baseball, but that’s just not the way it works.