Update: It was a big day for the Braves, who didn’t even play
Glad tidings from a Philly fanatic. (AP photo)
Update: The Mets scored six runs in the ninth inning to beat St. Louis 8-6 after the Cardinals’ Rafael Furcal, of whom you’ve heard, couldn’t field a double-play grounder. The Braves lead the Cards by two games with six to play. Big break.
Today is an important day for the Braves, and they don’t even play. (The way they’re going, that’s a good thing.) The Cardinals are scheduled to complete their three-game series against the Mets this afternoon, and what happens in St. Louis will have a direct effect on the Braves’ psyche this next week.
Today’s the day when that half-game in the standings goes away. If the Cardinals lose, they’ll be two back with six to go. That’s still too close for comfort, but it beats the heck out of the alternative, which would be …
One game back, six to go.
The Braves appeared to have steadied last week. They held that 4 1/2-game lead for four days, saw it reduced to 3 1/2 on Friday, pushed it back to 4 1/2 on Saturday. They were positioned to keep it there Sunday afternoon, but Jonny Venters blew a lead and then Craig Kimbrel blew one the next night and suddenly they were only 2 1/2 games in front. After amassing two hits against Javier Vazquez (former Brave) last night while the Cardinals surged past the Mets yet again, the lead’s at 1 1/2.
And nothing’s steady now. The Braves led St. Louis by 10 1/2 games on Aug. 25, by 8 1/2 the day after Labor Day, which was barely two weeks ago. But the Braves have stopped hitting (again) and their rotation has been reduced to Tim Hudson and assorted rookies and the bullpen has started to wobble and …
According to Baseball Prospectus’ playoffs odds, the Braves’ chances of reaching the postseason stand at 70.3 percent. A week ago they were at 95 percent. This time next week they could be at 0 percent.
I didn’t see this coming. I didn’t think they were in real trouble until Monday night. But now I do. They’ve lost consecutive series to teams with losing records. They’ve won one of the past five series. They’ve lost 13 of 20 games. If they’re put in position where one more bad night could mean they’re no longer leading the wild-card race, I’m not sure how they’ll react.
The difference between a one-game and a two-game lead isn’t that much on paper, but with six games remaining a two-game lead could be viewed as almost healthy. A one-game lead could not. For a team that has had little go right this past fortnight, seeing the Cardinals lose today would be a major boost. But those Redbirds don’t seem to be losing much, do they?
The good news: Lefthander Chris Capuano is starting for the Mets, and he can be effective. The bad: He has won only twice in his past nine starts, and both victories, wouldn’t you know, were against the local nine. So the Braves have that going for them, which is … not really nice.
By Mark Bradley
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401 comments Add your comment
Pissed off Ralphus
September 22nd, 2011
3:35 pm
Maybe lightning will hit Albert, bounce off his roid filled a** and hit Furcal. You know he’s gnashing his teeth and chomping at the bit to get back at us.
Sonny Clusters
September 22nd, 2011
3:38 pm
Personal hygiene. That may have something to do with all the hugging. This is a cleaner dugout than in the past. You can lean up against the railing without catching a booger. In that type environment, players become less inhibited and hug a lot. The 1991 team was not a bunch of huggers. The only hug we remember was Smoltz hugging Olson out by the mound when they clinched the pennant. This team, though, hugs for no reason before the game. Somebody needs a hot foot. Where is McDowell?
DetroitBraves
September 22nd, 2011
3:41 pm
Mark
Fredi used Venters and O’Flaherty in low leverage situations numerous times.
He elected to face the opposition’s best hitters in high leverage situations where one run meant a 0% win probability.
More times than not he’s fielded sub-optimal lineups in terms of run expectancy.
He may be a great guy and the players may love him and play hard for him, and there is tremendous value in that, but in terms of strategy – in measurable attributes – please explain how he has done ok.
By the way, like your writing and think you’re a fairly swift fellow so not trying to pick a fight but I do very much disagree with you here.
Sonny Clusters
September 22nd, 2011
3:43 pm
Not many people know we was once a sportswriter but we got some treatment and was reformed. Still, we admire the work done here by Mark and by Jeff and we recognize both of them was once a Best of Cox winner. They used to give some cash with that award but that stopped when they had to narrow the paper down some to save money. Being a sportswriter in a town like this is complicated by having to be clear, concise and compelling when the teams you have to cover are clouded, messed up, and without much going for them. The Braves are about to demonstrate what we mean.
Mark Bradley
September 22nd, 2011
3:45 pm
I believe that’s correct, Booyah.
SG10
September 22nd, 2011
3:48 pm
Hopefully, the Cards game will start late and finish with the Mets winning in the 17th inning at 1 AM!
DetroitBraves
September 22nd, 2011
3:48 pm
Sonny Clusters at 3:43 pm, the head of a nail has never before been so soundly struck.
Pissed off Ralphus
September 22nd, 2011
3:50 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVO8sUrs-Pw
reebok
September 22nd, 2011
4:12 pm
doesn’t really matter if they make it in or not, since if they do sneak in, they’ll get blown out in the wild card series…
Sonny Clusters
September 22nd, 2011
4:14 pm
One time Stinky Wintes wanted a hug and no one would hug him because he kind of stayed with you, if you know what we mean. If you was going out with a girl later, you didn’t want Stinky Wintes lingering on you. We called it Essence of Stinky but some people just say he smelled bad. That’s what’s happening right now to the Braves. . . they smell bad. Some of it started with that game Derek Lowe pitched in Atlanta two starts ago. Some of it has to do with getting only two hits last night and hitting all those first pitch pop outs. Some of it has to do with finding a small ball way of winning and then disassembling it in favor of Heyward’s inept at bats. Team chemistry should change. A new leader must emerge, and the hugging must stop. Fanny patting must stop. Meanness needs to come into play. If you want to kill something, try killing the baseball. There’s plenty time to hunt later.
Sonny Clusters
September 22nd, 2011
4:15 pm
Filtered again. Have to stop talking deer and fanny patting.
meh
September 22nd, 2011
4:18 pm
Braves sweep the Nats and Cubs sweep the Cards. believe it.
Loweser
September 22nd, 2011
4:20 pm
cards up 2 to 0 in the first
Mitchell
September 22nd, 2011
4:23 pm
People, if the Braves lose the wild card, then and only then do they not deserve to go to the playoffs.
Otherwise, don’t say they don’t deserve to make the playoffs.
If they win more games than the Cardinals and Giants then those guys can go home and spend October with their families.
Screw ‘em.
That’s like saying “If I had known ahead of time the Braves were going to lose to the Astros again, I would have prefered their stretch of division titles had ended at thirteen.”
Did it suck that we lost to the Giants last year? Yes, but for a brief moment it looked like we might take a commanding lead in the series that would have been almost impossible for the Giants to overcome.
Did that make it ten times worse when we blew it? Absolutely.
But we got there. We had a chance. That’s better than nothing.
We’re not the Phillies. If they don’t win the World Series, just getting there will not be enough.
If we don’t at least make the playoffs, the entire season will have been a failure.
superiorblogman
September 22nd, 2011
4:24 pm
Guy owns the Braves but can’t even get out of the 1st against the Cards without giving up 2 runs.
Pissed off Ralphus
September 22nd, 2011
4:24 pm
WTH is Sonny talking about? All I know is Stinky Wizzleteats:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXSOD1N5lR4&feature=related
In a few days we’re really going to need this helmet.
Loweser
September 22nd, 2011
4:26 pm
I wish I was a cards fan..must be exciting to be part of what they have going on.
Nick n richmond
September 22nd, 2011
4:26 pm
R you kidding me!? Can anyone please beat the Cardinals!!!? They are already beating the Muts 2-0 and still have guys on ready to score……
Considering the Braves play the Nats (who always seem to take 2 of 3 from Braves) and Phillies (who will try to right their wrong by playing strong against Braves), and the Cardinals play the Cubs and Astros………..pshhhh…doesn’t look good for the Bravos…
I am assuming most will not be happy with Fredi Gonzalez if this team does not make the playoffs…….? Well, I hope something would happen.
Loweser
September 22nd, 2011
4:28 pm
Don’t worry…Chipper says we can take the Phillies in the playoffs!
Jake
September 22nd, 2011
4:32 pm
If I am charlie manuel, i tell my guys to let the braves win all 3. Why would you want to face the cardinals in round one instead of az and maybe milwaukee? You don’t. Remember san fran last year. Cards are doing just like them. Of course that doesn’t guarantee the braves get in but it would help. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them choke against the nats like last year all over again
Mark Bradley
September 22nd, 2011
4:33 pm
Per Jayson Stark of ESPN: If a one-game playoff is necessary, Cardinals play host to the Braves.
Ryan S
September 22nd, 2011
4:34 pm
The difference between the braves and cards is a joke. Furcal makes an error last night and that allowed 4 runs to score I believe. The mets were up 4-3. If that was the braves, they lose. But the cards with 2 out and no one on get back to back hits from Albert and Lance and then the friese guy hits a 3 run homer. That’s what the braves lack and always lack in September and October. Clutch players
Mitchell
September 22nd, 2011
4:37 pm
Looks like the Mets are losing.
Miles
September 22nd, 2011
4:38 pm
Its bad guys. Braves play a 75-79 Nationals team at home with six games left to play. If Washington wins seven of the next eight they are over 500 for the year. I guarantee you the Nationals will play to win them all. If you look at the Cardinals they play the Mets, Cubs and Astros. I hate to say it but the Cardinals will clinch the wild card on Monday. Its over Braves fans, lets hope Liberty Media raises the payroll and Derek Lowe and Larry Parrish are sent packing.
Mitchell
September 22nd, 2011
4:39 pm
Per Jayson Stark of ESPN: If a one-game playoff is necessary, Cardinals play host to the Braves.
You’re kidding, right?
Man, I thought losing five of six gave us home field advantage.
NorCalBrave
September 22nd, 2011
4:43 pm
The only thing worse than the Cards taking the WC would be the dreaded Giants leaping over 2 teams to snag it. If Braves fold and Cards stumble, SF is right there with their final three at home against the worst team in baseball right now, the Colorado Rockies. BTW, the Giants have done all this starting 4 rookies in their lineup. Ugh.
Sonny Clusters
September 22nd, 2011
4:50 pm
We was watching the game the other night and the new editor of the AJC came on and said the paper has been transformed into something the readers will like. We was wondering if they was purposely putting out something the readers wouldn’t like before? Still, they’ve got Mark and that puts ‘em one up on the other papers in town. What? No other papers? How about the Dunwoody Crier? See, two papers. We still like Mark and Jeff the best and are proud to blog with them when we are not working at second shift. Here’s a prediction, neither will have to travel to cover any more Braves baseball this season. You read it here from a Clusters. We hope they prove us wrong.
Mark Bradley
September 22nd, 2011
4:52 pm
Thanks, Sonny.
I think of it this way: AJC.com has Clusters, and that puts us one up on any other website in town.
Sonny Clusters
September 22nd, 2011
4:59 pm
Aw, shucks. We’re still not hugging, though.
NoHope4Braves
September 22nd, 2011
5:19 pm
The braves are flushed and will be swept by whomever in round one. Lowe, overpaid and terrible. This team doesn’t have it and no one cares. Get rid of the deadwood (jones, lowe among a few others) and see what next year brings.
BaseballBuff
September 22nd, 2011
5:27 pm
MB, why is Constanza out of the starting lineup? I must have missed the column where that was explained. Somebody, anybody, just give me a reason for it.
Tomahawkin (Ol Yeller Parrish)
September 22nd, 2011
5:27 pm
My Screen Name Says it all…If we Choke and Lose 2 out of the 3 this weekend…Someone Needs To Get “Ol Yellered” And That Man is Larry Parrish
He has been the Worse Hitting Coach we have had since 1991…He Makes Merv Rettenmund look like Clarence Jones of the 91-97 Braves Teams…
Bob
September 22nd, 2011
5:28 pm
A manager does a little bit more than fill out the line-up card and make excuses at the post-game show…Fredi has done this. What he hasn’t done is motivate, and put the players on the field that give us the best chance to win. This was Bobby’s eventual downfall, too.
Tomahawkin (Ol Yeller Parrish)
September 22nd, 2011
5:34 pm
Whats Worse is that we are gonna Make the Nats look Playoff Caliber This Weekend, Bank On It.
The Nats Own Us in September since 2005, And Its The Nats version of the NLDS when Atlanta Comes To Town…
Just Hope We don’t Let That Trash Stankiel or Jayson Werthless Beat Us?
We Just need to Go 3-3 And Pray that The Cards Cool off…But Then Again They get 2 Cake Teams from The Loser Central the last 2 series. They will Prolly go 4-2 against both the Diastros and The Flubbies
rich
September 22nd, 2011
5:37 pm
Hey Mark – back on Sept. 12, in your column you noted that Brian McCann jokingly asked if you were panicking yet.
Given the fact that he has contributed nothing to the stretch drive as the Braves flounder; ask BMac if he is panicking yet.
Tomahawkin (Ol Yeller Parrish)
September 22nd, 2011
5:38 pm
Fact Of The Matter is Blowe Cost us the season..but Don’t worry he’s laughing that is taking that 15 mill he stole from us to the bank and will do the same Next Year
Does Anyone On here Remember In May Chuck And Chernoff on 680TheFan were Lusting for Us to Trade Blowe and A Pitching Prospect to WhineBrenner and The Yankees for Curtis Cranderson???
Wren’s Biggest Blunder so Far!!!
Bill Parks
September 22nd, 2011
5:41 pm
Albert Pujols is gonna lead the Cardinals to the playoffs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up winning the world series like the Giants did last year. Albert will get his $300M contract after the season after the Cardinals win the world series.
George Allen
September 22nd, 2011
5:47 pm
Ouch! There goes Puhols,,,again. This looks hopeless.
superiorblogman
September 22nd, 2011
5:49 pm
Oh well, the Cards are now 1 game behind us after they clobber the guy that beat us 2 times in like 2 weeks. We can’t beat the Nats for anything so expect us to come out of that series at best tied with the Cards.
Memphis
September 22nd, 2011
5:51 pm
Tomahawkin,
There is no way in hell the Yankees would’ve done that. Just because two local radio hacks were asking for a trade does it mean it would happen. I mean I would’ve traded Lowe for Pujols if I could…..
Mitchell
September 22nd, 2011
5:53 pm
The Nats Own Us in September since 2005, And Its The Nats version of the NLDS when Atlanta Comes To Town…
Yeah, except for the one series in September 2009 when we went up there and pulled off an improbably sweep.
Then they came home and lost six of seven to the Marlins and Nats to end the season but we had already blown the wild card so no point in trying to win, right?
The amazin’ Braves.
Gotta love ‘em.
Tom
September 22nd, 2011
5:53 pm
I predict 6 more cap tippings for fredi gonzalez.
Bravos
September 22nd, 2011
5:54 pm
Mets willie harris missed the foul pole by a hair to tie up yhe cardinals…now they are losing 3-1. Everything is turning up roses for st louis
StingSplash
September 22nd, 2011
5:57 pm
At least Chipper says they are the only team that can handle the Phillies. I guess STL going 5-2 against them this year doesn’t count for much.
Sonny Clusters
September 22nd, 2011
5:59 pm
Another thing about Stinky Wintes . . . he made a really high score on the Wunderlic test. He took it in a room by himself because nobody wanted him in a closed room for half an hour, but he scored well and we don’t think he cheated. If Chipper ever took the Wunderlic we suspect he tested about like a deer but Stinky Wintes was more like Einstein with body odor. One thing that we hope comes out of this is that people will recognize that Chipper Jones has some nice individual numbers but his teams never win the big ones. His influence is a big part of that in our opinion. One more year. Say it ain’t so. Go huntin’ instead.
Phils fan
September 22nd, 2011
5:59 pm
… I bleepin hate the hate the braves for putting Charlie Manuel and the phillies in ths position for the 2nd year in a row. if they hit ruiz or another key player like Hudson did I swear to god. it’s not playing the cards. bleep them. the brewers are a tougher opp anyway. the dbacks are no slouch either. it’s the fact that the braves are putting the phils in same moral position because they couldn’t handle their own business. and if thy happens, I hope the phils put them out of their misery.
Rowsdower
September 22nd, 2011
6:02 pm
I just watched John Jay turn a routine single to CF into a double. THAT’S the difference between the Cards and Braves right now. The Cards want it…we don’t.
It’s 4-1 Cards so this one if pretty much over. No comeback needed today. The Wild Card lead will be 1 game tonight, but we might as well be 3 back considering we face Strasburg tomorrow night and the Phillies for 3. They aren’t going to cut us any slack. They’re going to be prepping for the playoffs and pounding the dirt on top of our grave.
I can’t believe we blew a 10 game lead…
Rowsdower
September 22nd, 2011
6:04 pm
John Jay just turned a routine single to CF into a double. That is the difference between the Cards and Braves right now. They want it…we don’t.
Prepare for the funeral when the Phillies come to town on Monday.
Skeezix
September 22nd, 2011
6:06 pm
I have already written the Cards in for the WC. I anticipate that the Braves will struggle against the Nats too. That’s what the September Braves do–struggle. It is turning out to be a sad ending to a season with so much promise. It all started coming apart 3 weeks ago. The poor second half by Lowe and McCann, injuries to Hanson & J.J. started it and then the offense (which wasn’t our strength to begin with) just petered out. When the Cards started turning up the heat and made it close– I think then they started playing tight (choking). The depressing truth of the Mets and Fish series is that right now those two teams are better than the Braves.
MyName
September 22nd, 2011
6:06 pm
Does anyone know why Dickey(aka Knuckles) was pulled from his scheduled start against the Cardinals?
Albert P is pulled from the line up when they face him because Larusso said “I didn’t want to mess up his timing”.
Is he injured or are the Mets playing favorites here and piching a guy with a era over 6?
What a joke.