Update: It was a big day for the Braves, who didn’t even play
Glad tidings from a Philly fanatic. (AP photo)
Update: The Mets scored six runs in the ninth inning to beat St. Louis 8-6 after the Cardinals’ Rafael Furcal, of whom you’ve heard, couldn’t field a double-play grounder. The Braves lead the Cards by two games with six to play. Big break.
Today is an important day for the Braves, and they don’t even play. (The way they’re going, that’s a good thing.) The Cardinals are scheduled to complete their three-game series against the Mets this afternoon, and what happens in St. Louis will have a direct effect on the Braves’ psyche this next week.
Today’s the day when that half-game in the standings goes away. If the Cardinals lose, they’ll be two back with six to go. That’s still too close for comfort, but it beats the heck out of the alternative, which would be …
One game back, six to go.
The Braves appeared to have steadied last week. They held that 4 1/2-game lead for four days, saw it reduced to 3 1/2 on Friday, pushed it back to 4 1/2 on Saturday. They were positioned to keep it there Sunday afternoon, but Jonny Venters blew a lead and then Craig Kimbrel blew one the next night and suddenly they were only 2 1/2 games in front. After amassing two hits against Javier Vazquez (former Brave) last night while the Cardinals surged past the Mets yet again, the lead’s at 1 1/2.
And nothing’s steady now. The Braves led St. Louis by 10 1/2 games on Aug. 25, by 8 1/2 the day after Labor Day, which was barely two weeks ago. But the Braves have stopped hitting (again) and their rotation has been reduced to Tim Hudson and assorted rookies and the bullpen has started to wobble and …
According to Baseball Prospectus’ playoffs odds, the Braves’ chances of reaching the postseason stand at 70.3 percent. A week ago they were at 95 percent. This time next week they could be at 0 percent.
I didn’t see this coming. I didn’t think they were in real trouble until Monday night. But now I do. They’ve lost consecutive series to teams with losing records. They’ve won one of the past five series. They’ve lost 13 of 20 games. If they’re put in position where one more bad night could mean they’re no longer leading the wild-card race, I’m not sure how they’ll react.
The difference between a one-game and a two-game lead isn’t that much on paper, but with six games remaining a two-game lead could be viewed as almost healthy. A one-game lead could not. For a team that has had little go right this past fortnight, seeing the Cardinals lose today would be a major boost. But those Redbirds don’t seem to be losing much, do they?
The good news: Lefthander Chris Capuano is starting for the Mets, and he can be effective. The bad: He has won only twice in his past nine starts, and both victories, wouldn’t you know, were against the local nine. So the Braves have that going for them, which is … not really nice.
By Mark Bradley
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401 comments Add your comment
Ted M
September 22nd, 2011
12:41 pm
the Braves beat Strasburg 5 zip last time they faced him.
Sonny Clusters
September 22nd, 2011
12:41 pm
Another thing Stinky Wintes would do. He’d pick his nose with the wrong finger. No more same old, same old. If a player was giving the same thing over and over and it wasn’t good . . . Stinky Wintes would try somebody different. For instance, Heyward wouldn’t get that last at bat last night for a three hopper to second base with men on. Somebody else could try something else. We was so excited about this team learning some small ball and playing so well, and now it’s back to BobbyBall and station to station trying to hit 3-run home runs. It’s hard to hit a 3-run homer with nobody on base. We say stop all the hugging and fanny patting and play ball. Last, thing . . . somebody said we’re just fans. Well, the fans seem to be mad at all this bad play and losing. Some of the players don’t seem to care or at least don’t show it. As somebody famous once said (and it wasn’t a Clusters, Where is the Outrage?
StingSplash
September 22nd, 2011
12:44 pm
You are right Mark. Pujols really struggles against those lefties!!!! BTW–Cards are finishing a three-game set with the Mets today. They are as locked in the past two weeks as I have seen them all season.
Robards
September 22nd, 2011
12:45 pm
Strasburg has learned a little since then. That said, he will be on a strict pitch count and there’s no reason to think Huddy can’t at least match him.
coach13
September 22nd, 2011
12:47 pm
“even if they make it, does anyone really think that they can give Milwaukee the home field advantage & win a series?”
Exactly!!!! Does it really make it ok if they limp into the postseason and are promptly shown the door??? They haven’t played good baseball for most of the season (outside of of the pitching staff). This offense should not be an anemic one by any means.
Ted M
September 22nd, 2011
12:47 pm
Hudson was the winning pitcher last year against Strasburg.
Terrell
September 22nd, 2011
1:02 pm
DCBravosFan
They have a bat in RF, shortstop I agree with you, and at 3B they need an everyday starter. Chipper isn’t what he use to be and what he is right now will not do us any good. Heyward has a bad year at the ripe age of 22 (2nd year in the Pros) and people are ready to throw him away? Lets hope Freeman doesn’t suffer the same next year, but you all would probably give him a pass right?
heb11:1
September 22nd, 2011
1:03 pm
Quitters never win! Winners never quit! Keep fighting Braves!
steve brown
September 22nd, 2011
1:05 pm
Two weeks ago (we had a very comfortable wild card lead) Chipper got permission to attend his son’s sinus surgery. Now we are fighting for our lives and he doesn’t get back in time to start the game. Today is an off day, are you telling me the surgery could not have been scheduled for today. This is our leader-please give me a break.
Braves73
September 22nd, 2011
1:06 pm
I believe that Braves have wilted for second straight year due to some conditioning issues. If you at this disturbing trend, it’s apparent that something may need to be implemented in order to avoid this type of situation in the future. Last year it was the regulars breaking down (Chipper, Prado, Jurjens, etc), and this year it’s starting pitching (Jurjens again, Hanson). It’s the old axiom that “fatigue makes losers of everybody”.
Also, it wouldn’t hurt to put Costanza back in the lineup at the number 1 or 2 spot in the batting order. I know Heyward is starting to hit better, but he’s just not making enough of an impact in the lineup to make a difference and SOMETHING needs to be done to manufacture runs.
Braves Fan in Beantown
September 22nd, 2011
1:07 pm
Don’t blame Irene. Don’t blame the boys. Blame me! It was so much fun giving the Roid Sox fans here in Beanpot Town hell as the local nine slipped to the Rays. Guess who’s having fun now? Not me. Crow and antacids anyone?
Buckwheat
September 22nd, 2011
1:08 pm
Here is the one thing that the Braves need: FIRE in their bellies and a true desire to do whatever it takes to win…… and maybe a manager that can bring that out in them. I just don’t see it with these guys.
MitchC
September 22nd, 2011
1:10 pm
Mark, the whole situation is a paradox. Hopefully they can get back on track and clinch the WC by Sunday,, that being said.
The Phillies series, while meaningless to them, is, to me, a very dangerous series. As we all know, the Philies are pkaying very poorly in “meaningless games”. I’;m taken back to 1998, when the Braves played the Mets on the last weekend of the regular season, with the Mets still in position for a wild card. Bobby said he wanted to keep the Mets out of the playoffs. The Braves swept the series, and the Mets went home.
I agree with you that the Cardinals losing today would be psychologically important for the Braves. That having been said, the Braves have only one source to blame for their peril now, and that is themselves. 10 1-2 games up. Even if they had blown.. half that lead, they would have been getting ready to clinch. If they dont make the postseason, this will rival one of the all time greatest collapses in history. (Mets 7 games up in the East with 17 to play in 2007) Oh, how i wish I had not gloated about that now.
I dont want to be negative, but my gut tells me the Braves arent going to make it. Sorry. I’ve been a Braves fan almost 30 years, and of course I want them to.. but.. it just looks like the Cards have gone red hot while the Braves continue ice cold.
Hopefully, my prediction will be wrong. Even though there are only six games left, I’m losing faith.
Reid Adair
September 22nd, 2011
1:10 pm
Why is a Phillies fan worried about the Braves?
Mark Bradley
September 22nd, 2011
1:12 pm
Situation is a paradox?
Let’s recall how often the Braves have left a pair of ducks on the pond. (Sorry. Old gag.)
8dogman
September 22nd, 2011
1:12 pm
I predicted this past Monday on a blog that the braves would win one game in Florida and then get swept by the Nationals who they simply cannot beat. So far my prediction is holding true. The braves cannot do anything right and the Cardinals cannot do no wrong which does not hold well for the braves. The braves look like a team that wants to just go home. Even if they were to make the playoffs they wouldn’t hold a light against the Brewers and certainly not the Phillies. This will go down as one of the biggest collapses in baseball history.
DawgDad
September 22nd, 2011
1:13 pm
“Chances are, they are going to try and get those who already bought post season tickets to put it towards credit for next season games….”
More bobblehead incentives? I could use a McCann, Prado, Bourn, AGon, and Hudson to go with my Chipper, Uggla, and Heyward, and I’d happily trade in my Teixiera for a Freeman.
The Listener
September 22nd, 2011
1:13 pm
The Braves playoff chances were killed back in St. Louis, when the better team was established and the Braves couldn’t find it in themselves to win one game. Everything since has just been the painfully slow bleeding to death since that fatal wound.
Jackets 2011
September 22nd, 2011
1:14 pm
The Cubs hate the Cards like the Giants hate the Dodgers.
I recall a Joe Morgan home run while with the Giants in maybe his last season to beat the Dodgers and push the 93 Braves into the playoffs.
The Cubs will come through.
And the Mets might help since they choked a few years ago as well and the Cards probably helped their choking along that year.
All is not lost.
Get a grip.
IceBRAVEcold11
September 22nd, 2011
1:18 pm
Speed kills and was killing for a while.
Loyalty also kills and that is why we are getting killed
P Rose
September 22nd, 2011
1:19 pm
We think Sonny Clusters was right. All that hugging and fanny patting in the dugout never happened when Bobby was the skipper. We was wondering with Sonny if it was healthy. It makes me a little uncomfortable to watch it. And I’m just a fan.
Mark Bradley
September 22nd, 2011
1:20 pm
The Morgan home run was in 1982.
P Rose
September 22nd, 2011
1:26 pm
Mark, your filter seems pretty random to me. It’s frustrating. Can’t anyone there do anything about it?
P Rose
September 22nd, 2011
1:29 pm
Look at the bright side. If they don’t make the playoffs, we season ticket holders will at least get our money back for the overpriced playoff tickets.
Larry
September 22nd, 2011
1:31 pm
And actually, it was Joe Morgan who hit the game winning home run for the Dodgers against the Giants in 1993 in the last game of the season. Braves 104 wins / Giants 103 wins.
Mark Bradley
September 22nd, 2011
1:32 pm
Joe Morgan played his last major-league game in 1984. He didn’t hit any home runs against any team in 1993.
MitchC
September 22nd, 2011
1:36 pm
Sorry, I’m a bit loopy. Have some personal things going on.
That being said, I’m sure you saw the poll posted. 72% of those polled think the Braves wont make it. 36 hours ago, after the win against the Marlins, I thought the Brsves were going to squeeze in. Now, although I want to think they will dig down and somehow find a way, my gut tells me they arent going to make it. It just seems they have squandered too big a lead, they are playing too poorly, and the Cards are too hot.
I hope I’m wrong, but my call would be that they dont make it.
October=Football
September 22nd, 2011
1:37 pm
Go Jackets!
Soul Patch
September 22nd, 2011
1:38 pm
Chipper’s checked out again.
Larry
September 22nd, 2011
1:42 pm
Mark,
Still give Gonzalez an A- grade? LOL!
Why did you delete this same last post, too embarrassing?
sidslid
September 22nd, 2011
1:42 pm
It will be three days rest for Venters and Kimbrall so we can have six inning starts out of Delgado and Minor. Fredi has had guts, so I think he skips Lowe with Hanson getting the start on the last day with the postseason on the line. If we don’t make it this year, we just have to get seven innings out of our starters next year and decide whether Heyward is a bust or not.
losers
September 22nd, 2011
1:44 pm
if u all think that way about the braves why do u trolls continue to watch them?you people really have a pathetic life,sorry you was not hugged as a child
Braves Gone
September 22nd, 2011
1:45 pm
Thank you, Mr Bradley, for a decent article. You didn’t put as much sugar and honey as usual. We all know the Braves have nowhere to go but home. It doesn’t appear they want to play post season anyway. Hope all the folks that bought the WC tickets get a refund.
losers
September 22nd, 2011
1:47 pm
if the cars lose today thats 2 games so in reality we have to lose 3/6,and the cards go 6-0 to win it thats not going to happen
Hot Girl
September 22nd, 2011
1:49 pm
We’re doomed. Chipper has a sickly child!
pitch this
September 22nd, 2011
1:49 pm
This team has no business in the playoffs. They have had the same approach for the offense for years now and until they change it they will not contend.
Probably not much chance for real change unless the team is sold to someone with the ability to assemble a solid team.
losers
September 22nd, 2011
1:50 pm
what is sad mark that last 3 games with philly braves are praying to draw at least 15,000,move the braves from atlanta where real fans will show up to watch them every night
SG10
September 22nd, 2011
1:51 pm
Mark,
As much as the Braves offense (or lack thereof) is a culprit, the biggest reason the braves are in a funk are awful pitching from Lowe and Hudson for a significant stretch. As much as we would like to believe that Hanson, JJ were big reasons, it is not since their replacements have pitched quite well. Hudson and Lowe each had 3 bad starts (4 in case of Lowe) in a crucial stretch. When you produce ERA over 10, no offense will bail you out! Since the Braves had a good bullpen, FG had no choice to lift these before things got out of hand..that ended up overworking bullpen, ultimately breaking down only superior aspect of their game.
Mark Bradley
September 22nd, 2011
1:51 pm
That’s true. If the Cardinals lose today, the Braves can go 3-3 and still have a reasonable chance of playing at least a one-game play-in.
losers
September 22nd, 2011
1:52 pm
braves be luck to draw 15,000 move the team out of atlanta
Bambam
September 22nd, 2011
1:52 pm
So the Braves have gone ahead and started playing their playoff caliber baseball before the playoffs begin. At least this way we will not be discussing them being swept in the playoffs. How can they play so good for the better part of the season and then tank toward the end ?
Mark Bradley
September 22nd, 2011
1:53 pm
Oh, and one thing more: Phillies have gone 0-5 since clinching. That doesn’t mean anything for the postseason, but it might mean something for the Braves series upcoming.
FGF
September 22nd, 2011
1:53 pm
Man the cards didn’t play a 4 game series with thet mets. It’s 3 games. They played the phillies on monday. Aren’t you suppose to know this with your job?
Ted M
September 22nd, 2011
1:53 pm
the Cards game today is delayed due to rain. That means they’ll have to burn their entire pitching staff to make it thru the game. the Cards are doomed…even God doesn’t want them to win.
Peter
September 22nd, 2011
1:53 pm
How many quality at bats have we seen lately ?
Soul Patch
September 22nd, 2011
1:54 pm
Chipper’s excused got to take the dog to the vet.
SG10
September 22nd, 2011
1:55 pm
It is really sad to watch blow up in the last 20 odd games after following them do well for 135 odd games…Since I have not given up in the first 156 games, I am not about to give up in the last 6. Even when I have reconciled with the fact that they are pretty ordinary team right now (the numbers don’t lie..when you lose series to Dodgers, Cubs, Phils, Cards, Marlins and Mets in the past 3 weeks, you are pretty ordinary), I will continue to root for them and hope they get to the next round.
losers
September 22nd, 2011
1:55 pm
i personally see the braves going 4-2,and will see no more than 15,000 fans for the philly series,last year braves did not sellout a playoff game ,sad that braves fans cant support there team
Gary
September 22nd, 2011
1:55 pm
A 2 game lead with 6 is huge over 1. If they braves and cards both won tomorrow and it’s 2, then the braves can go 2-3 in the final 5 and the only way they dont make at least a one game playoff is for the cards to go 5-0.
SG10
September 22nd, 2011
1:56 pm
Mark,
If there is a one game play-in, would that be in Atlanta? Who is projected to start based on the current rotation schedule?