Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard
Georgia didn't fare so well in the Dome against West Virginia, either. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
There’s standard-issue velocity (think Jair Jurrjens), and then there’s college football velocity (think Craig Kimbrel). It was barely a month ago that Texas A&M began making noises about leaving the Big 12, and those noises have become all but a roaring reality. A&M has signaled its intent to leave, and the SEC has offered to provide a new home. All that’s left is for somebody to persuade Baylor — and perhaps other spurned Big 12 schools — not to sue.
The apparent threat of legal action delayed what was to be A&M’s grand announcement Wednesday, but the move figures to happen soon enough. And why would Baylor care what A&M does? Because the Aggies’ leaving could lead to Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State bolting to the Pac-12, and by the time the exodus concludes the Big 12 might be reduced to three months of Baylor playing Iowa State. (Which apparently is also reserving its right to sue.)
Litigation, or the threat thereof, aside, the greater issue remains: Where does the SEC turn after it absorbs A&M?
The original thought was that the SEC could add a 14th team to offer geographical balance and call it a day. But momentum — and here we note again that momentum is a mighty wind — now suggests the SEC won’t stop at 14. The growing possibility that the Pac-12 will pick the plums from what’s left of the Big 12 could force to the SEC to go to 16 teams, or even 15.
And how, you’re asking, might a 15-team conference work? Well, there could be three five-team divisions. And how would three division winners fit into one conference title game? Only the best two would qualify. And how might the best two be determined? Good question. Conference record? Overall record? BCS rankings? Recruiting rankings?
For simplicity’s sake, an even number makes greater sense. So who might be the SEC’s 14th (or 15th and 16th) teams? Glad you asked.
Missouri: Heavy rumors link the Big 12 Tigers to the SEC, although it’s not entirely clear why. The Tigers have historically been better at basketball, and their recent run of football success might not stand the strain of the SEC West. Adding Missouri would broaden the TV base into St. Louis and Kansas City, but a countervailing theory holds that Mizzou sees itself as a better fit in the Big Ten. Chance it lands in the SEC: 50 percent.
West Virginia: Another heavily rumored name. If the intent is to stop at 14 teams, the Mountaineers would make more geographic sense than Missouri. They’d fit in the East, and they’d also serve up a slice of the Eastern Seaboard TV market. And this is a school that takes football seriously. (Witness the burning couches.) Of the teams on the SEC’s draft board, West Virginia would figure to be the easiest to convince. Chance it lands in the SEC: 65 percent.
Virginia Tech: An even more attractive candidate than West Virginia. The Hokies would offer penetration into the Washington, D.C., market, and they play BCS-level (meaning SEC-level) football. Still unclear is whether Virginia Tech, which lobbied hard to get into the ACC alongside Virginia only eight years ago, would split so soon. Chance it lands in the SEC: 37.5 percent.
Oklahoma: The Sooners are the greatest prize out there, but they’re believed to looking first toward the Pac-12. Then again, the SEC did approach Oklahoma last summer, and the Sooners are nothing if not pragmatic. The school’s inclination to trample on tradition — coach Bob Stoops has said super-conferences are the way of the future and that if the annual Texas-OU game gets lost for the sake of progress, so be it — could lead it southward. Chance it lands in the SEC: 30 percent.
North Carolina/N.C. State/Maryland: Any one of these would offer something approximating Virginia Tech, except that all have deeper roots in the ACC and none is as good at football. It’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels leaving the conference they and Duke control, basketball-wise; it’s less hard to picture Maryland and State wanting to get away from Carolina and Duke. Chance of landing in the SEC: 30 percent for Maryland; 20 percent for N.C. State; 5 percent for Carolina.
Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Louisville: Any of these might be welcome under ordinary circumstances, but it’s believed the SEC won’t add teams in states where it has already has a foothold. That said, desperate times could call for desperate measures. Two months ago, would anyone have thought Texas A&M would be SEC-bound in September 2011? Chance of landing in the SEC: 10 percent for Florida State, Clemson and Louisville; 5 percent for Georgia Tech and Miami.
And there’s your scorecard, folks — as of today. A week from now, Boise State might well have emerged as the hottest name on the SEC’s wish list. Although, owing to recent events, the school in Athens might file suit to bar the Broncos.
By Mark Bradley
Photos: Which team do YOU think would be a good fit for the SEC? Vote in our poll.
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416 comments Add your comment
GT-UT
September 8th, 2011
12:39 am
Sunny Skies’ ACC alignment is awesome…and make a lot of sense. I think the ACC should push for it while the scent is in the air.
VT does not belong in the SEC…acedemics plays a big part of VT and the ACC. TX A&M in SEC is a mistake as others have noted. Then again…who can really understand those Aggies.
I love the idea of the Big 12 picking up ND and BYU…although ND looks better in the Big 10.
Blaine
September 8th, 2011
1:10 am
Hey Chris, you sound a little bitter that we have passed the pups in the SEC east food chain. Go pull for Clemson if you like em so much. UGA and Clemsux can go to hell. Just two mediocre teams USC stomps this year to go with the last. 35-13 this wkd
Boz
September 8th, 2011
1:49 am
VaTech, you make perfect sense. Also it is worth remembering that the ACC never wanted VT to begin with. They wanted Syracuse, but politics in the state of Virginia required the ACC to take VT. Now that situation can be reversed. VT is the obvious first choice if they are willing and if the politics can be worked out.
Second choice is N C State. Big chance for the Wolfpack to get out from under UNC’s shadow. With the ability to recruit SEC-caliber players, State will soon dominate UNC the same way that Georgia dominates Tech.
So far as the others are concerned, I’m not really sure that the SEC has any real interest in Oklahoma. It might be doable if OU can ditch Okla State-but two teams in Oklahoma? If you don’t need two teams in Florida you sure don’t need two in Oklahoma. For that matter, I am not convinced the Pac 12 will take OU without Texas and I don’t think Texas will go.
Mizzou I suppose could happen eventually, but they really want to be in the Big 10. With all the chaos that seems likely to happen, they may get their chance. So it makes sense for them to hold out for what they really want.
There may be an outside shot for Maryland, which is well situated demographically. Culturally they are not a good fit, though, so I have trouble seeing it.
I see little chance for West Virginia, though it’s not a zero chance. What does WVU really bring to the table? Not much that I can see. They have a great sports tradition and I wish them well, but I just don’t think they will bring enough revenue.
Also with virtually no chance is FSU. I don’t think they will come, to begin with, as long as they have another alternative. And the SEC already owns Florida, TV-wise, so where is the upside? Clemson and Georgia Tech have zero chance. They don’t bring much additional revenue (in the case of Tech they would actually be a drag) and there is no chance UGA and USC would be stupid enough to allow their in-state rivals onto the SEC gravy train. Also zero: Louisville and East Carolina. These are marginal schools with virtually no following and no prestige.
Troy Goodwin
September 8th, 2011
5:27 am
FSU, Clemson, & Georgia Tech.
Get Real
September 8th, 2011
6:05 am
I hope they add A&M and Oklahoma, then shift Auburn and Alabama to the East division. Lots of natural rivalries would result.
StephenDawg
September 8th, 2011
6:05 am
How about Hawaii? Would make away game and the Dawgs should still be able to beat them.
Paddy
September 8th, 2011
6:36 am
We should not care about the DC market. It is pro sports territory. There is little interest in college football in that region. They like college football. They just don’t love it like folks in the South, Texas and Ohio do.
Thomas Brown
September 8th, 2011
7:23 am
Div 3
Alabama
Auburn
UGA
Florida
South Carolina
Perfect.
That is exactly what I am talking about. Mark Richt and his “coaching staff” cannot win 1 football game in this diviion.
Not 1.
Tennessee Tom
September 8th, 2011
7:24 am
the logical thing to do is put Auburn in the East,and add A&M and Oaklahoma State to the west,But after all the tv contracts,24 hrs news and sports,and the coming super conferences,it is not about sports anymore just the money.At the end of this arms race college football will only be a shell of its once unique sport,the stadiums are already littered with corporate ads,will the teams look like nascars in the future,a moving billboard,anything for a dollar,what a shame
» SEC: League expansion hits a Big 12 stumbling block John Clay's Sidelines
September 8th, 2011
7:35 am
[...] Bradley: Who’s next on the SEC expansion list? [...]
Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard | Y'all Sports
September 8th, 2011
7:46 am
[...] more of “Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard” from [...]
Thomas Brown
September 8th, 2011
7:47 am
You are not a ‘Dawgs fan. Look, I have no problem with the monies. The problem I have is that we have a vocal minority, RICHT-0-FILES, here at UGA who are DISNEYdawgs.com and think that we have a coach who has beat the great football teams in his 11 years here when he has NOT. He has also lost to a ton of sorry teams, 16 by my count, none of whom should he have lost to. And, the issue all this brings, is NONE of you are talking about what the division break-up will be. I am. You’ll are not. Adding Texas A and M brings all kinds of problems to a football school who thinks we can just belly-up and play Alabama every year, too, with this great and wondrous coaching staff we have. I want to know before Michael F. Adam$ votes to add Texas A and M, just who will be in what division. No answer to that, no vote. We cannot beat the teams we play now; and, have a vocal minority who think no one is allowed to ask, pardon me : Who has Mark Richt beat, go ahead, tell the great teams who Mark Richt beat ? List them.
Hal
September 8th, 2011
7:56 am
Sometimes the best offense is a good defense. If GT returned to the SEC the ACC is out of the Atlanta market .
GT
September 8th, 2011
8:18 am
The ACC has a strangle hold on the major cities on the eastern seaboard. The SEC counters by overhyping the quality of its product. Parity will kill the SEC. They are now in the poorest economic region of the country. If their product is average they cannot import fan support from other areas. The loss to Boise State is bigger than advertised. It points to overnight parity and even emerging markets of unknown schools not on the radar. Texas A&M joined the SEC out of being mad at Texas not by a natural desire to leave their neighborhood. The ACC supports their teams with wealthy alumni subsidized by tickets and television. They are a bit like Augusta National and the Masters in that respect. They don’t need the backwoods population to put a product on the field. They have a social familiarity that is important to the alumni of these schools, who really dictate any legislation and the major markets they are located in. The brand of the schools sell well in the metro markets, the kids going to school there have an academic advantage, all this is lost in Mark’s unbalanced scales.
Scott
September 8th, 2011
8:25 am
I would love to see Georgia Tech move back to the SEC.
It would be like the old days, it would be great.
GO JACKETS !
GT
September 8th, 2011
8:35 am
Parity will kill the SEC. It is selling from the poorest economic area in the country, once its product is not considered superior it will be a mess. Boise State winning is bigger than advertised. The ACC operates in a different market and has a different motivation.
SuperB
September 8th, 2011
8:44 am
None of the original ACC schools are interested in the SEC– period. UNC and Duke are dominant in BB, but average in FB. N. C. State has dominated both recently on the gridiron.
As for Baylor, the only reason the Big 12 let them tag along with the other powers was Ann Richards was the governor of Texas at the time, and a Baylor grad, and forced the league to take the Bears.
Virginia Tech offers little other than a good “in-conference” FB team. Their record outside the ACc against top teams is poor and their overall athletic program is sub-SEC standards. Their TV market is small.
The SEC needs a reality check if they think they will get a top team outside the Big 12 schools. They need eithe rTexas or Oklahoma to join– or let Texas A & M look elsewhere.
buzzwax
September 8th, 2011
8:54 am
The chances for GT getting back into the SEC are ZERO. Same for FSU and Clemson.
Its a shame, really, because all three are in the heart of ‘SEC Country’. IN THE HEART.
Why these three will never happen? MONEY/TV sets and DEEP down UF, UGA and USC KNOW that if each of these three programs added just a little more ‘SEC talent’ they would be very formidable competition. That is a WIMPEY way to look at it, but the reality of expansion isn’t really about that at all – ITS SIMPLY ABOUT MONEY.
Athletically in Football, Baseball and Basketball in both men’s and women’s sports how awesome would the SEC be!!
Selfishly, from a GT perspective, being able to travel to Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Vandy, FSU, Clemson for road games would be awesome!!!
Most are saying, GT would get CRUSHED in the SEC! With current talent, they would be mid pack, probably on par with UT, Miss St., Ole Miss, Ark and this years versions of Auburn and UGA. Ahead of UK, Vandy. Behind LSU, Bama, UF and USCe. With slightly better ‘SEC Talent’ they would be competitive!!!
This, I know is mearly a dream…..NOT SO FAST…..Clemson, FSU and GT banded together and packaged themselves to the Big 10!! You think the SEC would pay attention then?
So what about the Big 10? An expanded ACC to include Pitt, Syracuse, Uconn and Rutgers? This is more realistic and would be a TV set dominating league, pretty damn good in football and by far the KING of basketball. Isn’t this what the ACC wants anyway?
Pope UGA XXIII
September 8th, 2011
8:55 am
It’s all about money guys, which is the reason that Tech & Miami
won’t get a serious look. Tech’s stadium is a perfect example of a
rambling wreck while Miami doesn’t draw enough to get a any kind
of a serious look. Tech also burned bridges back in the 60’s when
Bobby Dodd thumbed his nose at Ole Miss, Miss State, Kentucky
and Vanderbilt all of whom didn’t draw enough fans. The Virginia
legislature probably won’t let Va tech leave after all they went thru
to get them into the ACC. None of the Tobacco Road teams will
give up the bsketball rivalries which basically leaves Clemson and
Florida State, both of whom will more than pay their way in the
money sports of football & basketball, not to mention occasional
big years in baseball.
GT
September 8th, 2011
9:08 am
I think it is about more than money. There are schools in the ACC that aren’t there for the money, they are there for tradition. That is why it is a joke to put a handicapped university on NCAA probation. South Florida needs football, Duke University or Vanderbilt does not. I even predict that some day the recruit will discover there is more to life than college football and that more can be found in traditional universities. If the average man can get a scholarship to Harvard where he does not have the grades to normally get in or to South Florida or Miss State there is no decision where he is going, some day football players will wake up and do the same.
drumdana
September 8th, 2011
9:08 am
Any consideration for Memphis? Still Tennessee but the other end.
James
September 8th, 2011
9:08 am
VT is a joke. They cannot win VS high ranked teams. Couldn’t beat any of the big boys, even Boise, and now they play all creampuffs this year for their OOC. They win games in a very weak ACC. 1 BCS win in how many tries? Would be fortunate to win 6 games per year in the SEC.
St1ng_em
September 8th, 2011
9:12 am
If the SEC does expand to 16 teams, there is no doubt that they should get GT, Clem, and FSU. Clem and FSU bring a huge football following with fans that travel well. GT brings a rich football tradition back to the SEC. All three schools are extremely competitive basketball (GT should improve without Blewitt). By doing this, the SEC would shore up the GA, FL, & SC recruiting.
East
UF FSU UGA CLEM USC GT KY AUB
West
AL TN VAN MISS MISS_ST AK TX_A&M LSU
Cross div Head to Head
AL-AUB
UF- LSU
UGA-TN
FSU-TX A&M
KY-VAN
CLEM- MISS MISS_ST or ARK
GT-MISS MISS_ST or ARK
USC-MISS MISS_ST or ARK
bull-gator
September 8th, 2011
9:13 am
University of South Florida.
Dawg Fud
September 8th, 2011
9:24 am
Would love to have Clemson join the East.
Monitoring the Web: Sept. 8, 2011 (All-Expansion Edition) | Failure To Monitor
September 8th, 2011
9:32 am
[...] pointing out they are the last school and athletic program worthy of the nation’s pity. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Bradley looks at the SEC’s candidates to fill the 14th spot, assuming A&M finally makes its way [...]
Adam
September 8th, 2011
9:38 am
regarding Va Tech bringing the DC market. WVU brings that and more
Blacksburg to DC = 269 miles
Morgantown to DC = 209 miles
Also
Morgantown to Pittsburgh = 75
Morgantown to Baltimore = 210
SEC handicapper rates Oklahoma’s chances of heading South | Open Mike
September 8th, 2011
9:44 am
[...] Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution evaluated candidates for the Southeastern Conference’s 14th member (presuming Texas A&M’s potential legal issues are resolved). He rates Oklahoma’s [...]
J-bird
September 8th, 2011
9:48 am
WfV fits right in with the rst of the inbreds in the SEC.
wvangler
September 8th, 2011
10:19 am
Does anyone realistically believe that academics has anything at all to do with conference expansion/realignment? I think it is considerably telling for anyone to make bold claims about any land grant university’s lack of academic prowess without something to back up their claim. State land grant universities, particularly of rural states (i.e., Mississippi, Arkansas, West Virginia, etc.) have challenges, but I’m not seeing how relevant any of that is to the business of football expansion. West Virginia is a southern state. Try coming here and calling us yankees to our faces. You might get away with it in Morgantown, but it won’t go over well in the southern half. I don’t think civil war b.s. has much to do with any of this, but if it means something to you, remember that there is a statue of our Gen. Thomas Jackson in front of our state capitol. People turn on tv sets to watch WV play football and I think the viewership numbers will play as much a factor as specific market size. All that said, I don’t have any idea what is going to happen and I kind of like the prospect of dominating the Big East for a while to come. Que sera sera.
wvangler
September 8th, 2011
10:25 am
Correction – I should have said “West Virginia is a southern Appalachian state” to be more specific. The culture of southern Appalachia is pretty much the same through WV, KY, TN, western NC.
Bradley =
September 8th, 2011
10:28 am
pure retard.
what do you know about numbers and percentages.
I like how Virginia Tech has a 37.5. HAHAHA where did the .5 percent come from. I would love to see the formula you wrote for such exact numbers.
bark madley, you sir are an idiot.
ucfgt
September 8th, 2011
10:34 am
UCF. Not there yet, but they have the potential to be a big time program. Big school and great area. If not the SEC, then, if ACC loses team, UCF can slide in. They keep getting blocked from Big East by South Florida.
trey
September 8th, 2011
10:37 am
Yellow maggots are not welcome. They are not SEC calibre anyway. They belong in the conference with Jacksonville St, since that’s the kind of teams they play well against.
Bring in Clemson and FSU.
rob
September 8th, 2011
10:45 am
The Sooners are “the most prestigious program in the history of college football”(ESPN). They get the superior athletes that would enhance the play of the SEC. Let’s entice them while we still have the chance!
st1ng_em
September 8th, 2011
11:12 am
GT would fit perfect in the SEC. They play UGA tough every year whether or not Georgia is up or down and would have had more wins over the last decade if not for Reggie Ball and Chan. The majority of fans (ones that actually went to the school they support) would support GT back in the SEC. There might be some old timers with a grudge, but Aub would love to get the Wrek Tech tradition back on a yearly basis.
Boo Boo
September 8th, 2011
11:52 am
Reinstate Tulane in the SEC! Go Green Wave!
st1ng_em
September 8th, 2011
11:54 am
This is a good read for reasons left SEC.
http://oversigning.com/testing/index.php/2010/02/14/why-did-georgia-tech-leave-the-sec/
SEC wants GT to stay in the ACC or a ACC/Big East Combo, but if the college realignment nuke explodes, they don’t want them going to the Big 10. Every game that GT plays in ATL would be a recruiting dream for all those teams.
If the ACC does hold firm with the 12 and/or add 4 more, they have got to put GT, Clem, and FSU in the same division.
Clem FSU GT Duke UNC NCST
VT Mia BC Wake MD UVA
st1ng_em
September 8th, 2011
12:15 pm
Great website for GT leaving SEC
http://oversigning.com/testing/index.php/2010/02/14/why-did-georgia-tech-leave-the-sec/
BamaFan
September 8th, 2011
12:43 pm
Best structure for SEC:
WEST EAST
LSU Kentucky
Mississippi Tennessee
Mississippi State Vanderbilt
Arkansas Georgia
Texas A&M Florida
Texas South Carolina
Oklahoma Alabama
Oklahoma State Auburn
If Texas doesnt want to come along, pick from Missouri, TCU, SMU, Texas Tech.
Play all teams in your division every year and rotate 1 game from the other division. Considerably less travel for OK, Ok St & TX fans than the PAC12.
Not likely…….but what a conference. SEC would have ability to totally dominate the BCS.
JDGamecock
September 8th, 2011
1:17 pm
You are in SEC land, you are a SEC newspaper, please DO NOT ever refer to UNC as Carolina again. It’s insulting. They are NOT Carolina, they are not in the SEC and they are almost not even very southern. Sherman burned Atlanta and Columbia but he left Raliegh because he thought of North Carolina as being forced into a decision they didn’t want to make. Screw the entire state of North Carolina, and screw the SEC if they even consider inviting that POS university.
Joe Campbell
September 8th, 2011
1:23 pm
Regarding Clemson entering the SEC, for what it’s worth, I heard Spurrier during a recent radio interview saying he would welcome Clemson into the SEC — that it would make the intra-state rivalry truly meaningful. He also acknowledged that his opinion, and that of other coaches, on conference expansion matters was of little value.
tennkdawg
September 8th, 2011
1:33 pm
i’ve noticed a few comments, and anyone who thinks Virginia is not southern is f-ing ignorant, also, VT is further south than UK, VT has a lot of out of state students, but im from VA and i didn’t ever experience yankee’s until i went to UT, which is in the sec, so come up with another arguement against them and visit the damn state(not including DC suburbs)
VT is a loser
September 8th, 2011
3:32 pm
Brave Hokie
September 7th, 2011
4:47 pm
Chicago Richie
September 7th, 2011
12:37 pm
“WVU does a better job of delivering the DC market. The school is only 200 miles from DC and has a huge alumni-base in our nation’s capitol. So much so, that AD Luck scheduled multiple neutral-site games in DC.
VT, on the other hand, is about 370 miles from DC and their alums don’t spend money. Blacksburg is not Fairfax.”
This is an example of the stupid couch-burning logic you’ll be dealing with if the SEC admits WVU…”
response:
————————> and throwing toilet paper into a tree after the game is….what?
SEC choices
September 8th, 2011
3:34 pm
SEC choices after Texas a&m…….
*Missouri
*Florida State
*Clemson
*West Virginia
*VTech
Morning reads: SEC expansion hits a (Baylor) road block » College Football Daily News - Get all your football news on one site
September 8th, 2011
4:01 pm
[...] college football. (One expert I spoke with is very concerned.) Still more looked at who could be the SEC’s 14th team once the Aggies [...]
Mayor K. Reed
September 8th, 2011
4:39 pm
I will make it a political issue for GT to join the SEC. I want the City of Atlanta to host a home SEC game every other week. It will be great revenue for the city and not just wait once a year for the SEC championship at the Dome. I support Tech in the SEC. Its putting a founding member back in the SEC and putting money in a city that needs revenue.
BHANN
September 8th, 2011
4:45 pm
Great article Mark! I really don’t get the WV at the top of the list thing. Ok so there a so-so football and basketball school but the SEC is about football in my eyes, and a 9-4 record in the worst AQ conference is not a good enough football school to compete in the SEC. And Ok they’ve had a couple good years, but that was only with Rich Rod, hes gone now, and when he left Morgantown the BCS type of WV football program left Morgantown.
GT Fan
September 8th, 2011
4:51 pm
@Mayor K. Reed – Wow! Great point!
SEC die hard
September 8th, 2011
4:54 pm
I’m a big SEC die hard that lives in the ATL and the thought of going to a SEC game every other week in Atlanta would sound GREAT! Yes, I would accept GT into the SEC for that!