Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard
Georgia didn't fare so well in the Dome against West Virginia, either. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
There’s standard-issue velocity (think Jair Jurrjens), and then there’s college football velocity (think Craig Kimbrel). It was barely a month ago that Texas A&M began making noises about leaving the Big 12, and those noises have become all but a roaring reality. A&M has signaled its intent to leave, and the SEC has offered to provide a new home. All that’s left is for somebody to persuade Baylor — and perhaps other spurned Big 12 schools — not to sue.
The apparent threat of legal action delayed what was to be A&M’s grand announcement Wednesday, but the move figures to happen soon enough. And why would Baylor care what A&M does? Because the Aggies’ leaving could lead to Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State bolting to the Pac-12, and by the time the exodus concludes the Big 12 might be reduced to three months of Baylor playing Iowa State. (Which apparently is also reserving its right to sue.)
Litigation, or the threat thereof, aside, the greater issue remains: Where does the SEC turn after it absorbs A&M?
The original thought was that the SEC could add a 14th team to offer geographical balance and call it a day. But momentum — and here we note again that momentum is a mighty wind — now suggests the SEC won’t stop at 14. The growing possibility that the Pac-12 will pick the plums from what’s left of the Big 12 could force to the SEC to go to 16 teams, or even 15.
And how, you’re asking, might a 15-team conference work? Well, there could be three five-team divisions. And how would three division winners fit into one conference title game? Only the best two would qualify. And how might the best two be determined? Good question. Conference record? Overall record? BCS rankings? Recruiting rankings?
For simplicity’s sake, an even number makes greater sense. So who might be the SEC’s 14th (or 15th and 16th) teams? Glad you asked.
Missouri: Heavy rumors link the Big 12 Tigers to the SEC, although it’s not entirely clear why. The Tigers have historically been better at basketball, and their recent run of football success might not stand the strain of the SEC West. Adding Missouri would broaden the TV base into St. Louis and Kansas City, but a countervailing theory holds that Mizzou sees itself as a better fit in the Big Ten. Chance it lands in the SEC: 50 percent.
West Virginia: Another heavily rumored name. If the intent is to stop at 14 teams, the Mountaineers would make more geographic sense than Missouri. They’d fit in the East, and they’d also serve up a slice of the Eastern Seaboard TV market. And this is a school that takes football seriously. (Witness the burning couches.) Of the teams on the SEC’s draft board, West Virginia would figure to be the easiest to convince. Chance it lands in the SEC: 65 percent.
Virginia Tech: An even more attractive candidate than West Virginia. The Hokies would offer penetration into the Washington, D.C., market, and they play BCS-level (meaning SEC-level) football. Still unclear is whether Virginia Tech, which lobbied hard to get into the ACC alongside Virginia only eight years ago, would split so soon. Chance it lands in the SEC: 37.5 percent.
Oklahoma: The Sooners are the greatest prize out there, but they’re believed to looking first toward the Pac-12. Then again, the SEC did approach Oklahoma last summer, and the Sooners are nothing if not pragmatic. The school’s inclination to trample on tradition — coach Bob Stoops has said super-conferences are the way of the future and that if the annual Texas-OU game gets lost for the sake of progress, so be it — could lead it southward. Chance it lands in the SEC: 30 percent.
North Carolina/N.C. State/Maryland: Any one of these would offer something approximating Virginia Tech, except that all have deeper roots in the ACC and none is as good at football. It’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels leaving the conference they and Duke control, basketball-wise; it’s less hard to picture Maryland and State wanting to get away from Carolina and Duke. Chance of landing in the SEC: 30 percent for Maryland; 20 percent for N.C. State; 5 percent for Carolina.
Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Louisville: Any of these might be welcome under ordinary circumstances, but it’s believed the SEC won’t add teams in states where it has already has a foothold. That said, desperate times could call for desperate measures. Two months ago, would anyone have thought Texas A&M would be SEC-bound in September 2011? Chance of landing in the SEC: 10 percent for Florida State, Clemson and Louisville; 5 percent for Georgia Tech and Miami.
And there’s your scorecard, folks — as of today. A week from now, Boise State might well have emerged as the hottest name on the SEC’s wish list. Although, owing to recent events, the school in Athens might file suit to bar the Broncos.
By Mark Bradley
Photos: Which team do YOU think would be a good fit for the SEC? Vote in our poll.
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416 comments Add your comment
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
6:05 pm
Why is your puke orange and purple?
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
6:06 pm
Oh, of course that goes to the top of the next page….fine, fine…I’ll stop sniping.
By kids. GT to the SEC, bect decision you’ll ever make. Think about it and call me in the morning *wink*
Captain Obvious
September 7th, 2011
6:15 pm
I live in the DC area. Almost every VT game is televised regionally here. It doesn’t matter how many fans or stickers you think you see compared to others. Or what percentage of people in DC are interested in college football. What matters is that in the DC area, VT is regionally covered. That is what it means to capture a TV market. Thus, VT would in fact bring the DC TV market.
Team Dream
September 7th, 2011
6:18 pm
GT back in the SEC? I think the possibility is slim, at best. And besides: do you think GT would accept if they were given an SEC invite? Bobby Dodd, who in 1966 was Head Football Coach AND Athletics Director (very common for those days) decided GT should leave the SEC for a multitude of controversial reasons that still exist to this day. Some might argue that joining the ACC was the best thing that could have happened to GT … and that GT is just not an SEC-type school anymore … a fact that I’m personally VERY proud of.
Gt2Pius
September 7th, 2011
6:20 pm
Cause he eats clemmons tigers for breakfast. nom nom nom
GQ Light
September 7th, 2011
6:23 pm
It will be ECU…several grand on it, trust me. USC and UF are strongly supporting their inclusion.
ConcernedSECFan
September 7th, 2011
6:27 pm
What if we somehow traded UGA for TCU???
A perennial underachiever with a terrible fan base for a fantastic overachiever with a tremendous fan base. What do ya say SEC fans?!?
winless forever
September 7th, 2011
6:29 pm
Georgia State. Why not pack the Dome and lose to Alabama instead of losing to Old Dominion in front of 15,000?
ConcernedSECFan
September 7th, 2011
6:33 pm
Could we trade UGA for TCU???
A perennial underachiever with a terrible fan base for a perennial overachiever with a tremendous fan base. What do ya say SEC fans?!?
GQ Light
September 7th, 2011
6:34 pm
My reasoning and based on some info I have in regards to ECU:
can’t say
1) SEC avoids a lawsuit from a BCS conference
2) SEC moves new state / market and gains access to recruiting especially in the southern and eastern parts of Virginia
3) Adds another connection and rival mate for east opponents
4) ECU has invited presidents and ADs from both the Big East and SEC to their home football game this weekend
5) ECU’s AD has a lot of connections and recently started a marketing move to get them into a AQ conference
6) USC’s and UF’s strongly oppose bringing in another school from in their home state and do not want an existing ‘power’ school
7) can’t say on this forum
9) can’t say
10) can’t say
More updates on our twit
Climbing Out of the Box
September 7th, 2011
6:39 pm
If the SEC goes to 3 divisions, it may make more sense to have 2 post season games. 3 division winners plus best of the rest. One game in Atlanta, one game in Dallas. You lose the Championship game but you gain another big revenue game for TV, plus the possibility of two undefeated SEC teams making it into the BCS.
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
6:55 pm
Dallas? I don’t think so. That’s on the edge of the footprint. New Orleans would be better and at lot more fun. And Houston would be preferable to Dallas as well.
Dan
September 7th, 2011
7:13 pm
If academics matter, the only choice is Missouri. West Virginia’s are too weak to convince the presidents it adds anything. Of course, the SEC could always just exterminate the lawsuit by inviting Baylor.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
7:20 pm
East Carolina? Well, that’s just perfect. Pick a school who is not even in the US News rankings. Why not Houston? Why not Louisiana Tech? Or Louisiana-Lafayette? Or Memphis? Florida surely wouldn’t object to FAU or FIU, would they? Just completely discredit the SEC, why doncha?
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
7:23 pm
Climbing Out of the Box, the 3 division w/ wild card approach has a distinct appeal, especially when one division is clearly stronger, like last year. There would be the obvious temptation to have a two-level playoff, semifinals with #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3, then the championship, but maybe that’s not necessary. Deserves consideration.
Obviously, it would require the SEC to go to 15 teams. Each team would play its 4 division opponents with one rival and one rotating game against the other two divisions. It keeps the total conference games at 8, but it means that rotating opponents would only be seen twice every 8 years (excluding championship games). It could work.
blazerdawg
September 7th, 2011
7:27 pm
C’mon Team Dream, get off your high horse – Georgia Tech is an outstanding institution, but it would fit in just fine with Florida, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Alabama and LSU. You are already wallowing with Clemson, VA Tech and Maryland.
If the conferences do go to 16 my preference would be to invite a school like Wake Forest, TCU, Baylor or Tulane. Heck, I would take Elon or Mercer over WVU or ECU.
Dave Young
September 7th, 2011
7:31 pm
Actually Delbert, if you think about it, East Carolina makes a little more sense, they are the only FOOTBALL school in NC, have a rich tradition, a lot of fans, and it would give the SEC a school in NC. SEC is much on the same lines as Carolina and Arkansas were when they joined the SEC, same cut and mode but maybe a little better. If the SEC had a BCS school in NC, it would kill the ACC in terms of recruiting and I can only imagine how a football school like ECU could do with BCS recruits. Also, doubt anyone will credit the US News rankings as it is just a survey based on responses from about 70 schools on their school and other school.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
7:40 pm
So invite Tulane back to the SEC. Maybe they see things differently now.
Titus
September 7th, 2011
7:45 pm
You worthless twits with your mindless drivel are smoking crack if you think the academic bulwarks of a UVa, UNC, UMd and Duke want to be affiliated with the likes of some the SEC schools
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
7:56 pm
Dave Young – US News is the ranking that is generally accepted. Forbes is an alternative, but it more focused on affordability and bang for the buck, and uses student evals of professors, as well as some actual metrics of graduation and progression rates. It also includes schools that are not national universities by the US News definition, such as the service academies. Playboy, Parade Magazine and The Princeton Review, and the world ranking of universities are out there, too. Some people swear by whichever one ranks their school highest.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
7:59 pm
And Dave, nobody will ever accuse East Carolina or any of those other unranked schools I listed in my 7:20 post as an “academic bulwark”, as Titus so succinctly put it.
James
September 7th, 2011
8:03 pm
Georgia should leave the SEC and play in the ACC they would have a better chance at winning a national championship in the ACC than being in the SEC. Georgia Tech need to move to the Big East if Nebraska can go there and they aren’t in Big East country then Georgia Tech should be able to go there also.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
8:12 pm
James – Nebraska is not in the Big East; they are in the Big Ten. The other Big Ten member schools probably wish Nebraska had gone to the Big East, since they were kicked out of the invitation-only Association of American Universities in April of this year. I don’t think that Georgia Tech would want to take a step down to the Big East. Yes Georgia might be able to get an invitation to the ACC, but their massive fan base would be highly ticked off.
Blazerdawg
September 7th, 2011
8:18 pm
ACC would love to have UGA! UGA Alumni may support if UF and UK came with…interesting but unlikely scenario.
VaTech
September 7th, 2011
8:18 pm
VT and uva are not tied together at the hip. Although our administration has denied interest in the SEC, the same rhetoric was out there from the same officials when it came to us leaving the Big East to join the ACC. We have been injecting millions into all sports recently, have revamped our coaching staff, and we have the fan base that fits the “SEC mold”. The only thing that has ever kept the Hokies from getting over the hump has been the inability to land a number of the blue-chip recruits. Said recruits have always chosen SEC schools over us. Membership in the SEC would be beneficial to all parties involved. Would add a consistent upper-echelon football program, solid academics, bring in the DC Tv market, (2/3 of our student body is from northern VA/DC), as well as the rest of the state, an even further up the coast as there is a contingent of students/alumni from Maryland, PA, NJ, and NY. The current rivalries would not be messed with, and geographically we are a fit. 3 hours from UT, 5 from Vandy, 5 from SC, 5.5 from UK, 6 from UGA, etc. We already play teams from Miami and Boston within our conference, and our non-revenue sports play many SEC schools every season, so the travel thing wouldn’t be a roadblock. Add in a game with UT every year at Bristol Motor Speedway (has been discussed between the schools for years) and you have record crowds. Whether VT would be the 14th, 15th, 16th team, or whatever number the SEC decides to go to, I believe it would be a move that both sides would look back and realize was a great one.
James
September 7th, 2011
8:19 pm
Delbert D. – Sorry I meant the Big Ten I get those conferences confused at times thanks for correcting me. It just seems weird that Nebraska is in the Big Ten I would have rather seen them go to the Pac 12 and Texas and Oklahoma go to the Pac 12 also so they all can play each other. Georgia Tech offense will fit better being in the Big East unless they get a new coach I really think they should have gotten Randy Edsall before Maryland got him I hate Paul Johnson offense. Seeing Georgia, Florida State & VT among the other schools would be good to see although I’m not a Georgia fan I love GT.
Report: aTm to SEC a Done Deal - Page 4 - TigerFan.com
September 7th, 2011
8:25 pm
[...] regarding expansion after aTm. West Virginia would be an interesting addition to the SEC East. Who's next on the SEC's expansion list? Here's a checklist | Mark Bradley __________________ A man's just got to know his [...]
James
September 7th, 2011
8:29 pm
Delbert D. – Sorry I meant the Big Ten I get those conferences mixed up sometimes. It just seems weird seeing Nebraska in the Big Ten I’m gonna miss them playing Texas and Oklahoma those were some great games. Georgia Tech offense will fit the Big Ten better I think even though I hate GT offense I wish they would have gotten Randy Edsell before Maryland gotten him. It will be tough for UGA to win a national championship they can’t compete with Bama, LSU they will be better off in the ACC where they will have a better chance of beaten VT & FSU.
Casey McDonald
September 7th, 2011
8:39 pm
This is my percentages and the Teams more than likely to make up the 16 Team SEC. I believe it will be/could be any 4 of the below mentioned Schools that will evenually be in the SEC.
My List of Schools:
A.Texas A&M 99.9% B.West Virgina 65% C.Clemson 65% D.Missouri 65% E.Florida State 50% F.South Florida 45%; .
Dawg07
September 7th, 2011
9:03 pm
Texas or OK.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
9:11 pm
james – I understand, now. As to the comments regarding Georgia Tech’s offense fitting in, that shouldn’t be a consideration any more than what defense they are using. A reshaping of conferences of this magnitude would probably result in stability for many years. 5 years from now, June Jones’ offense at SMU may be the big thing. Some schools will always try to emulate the NFL systems, but very likely, various shotgun spreads, triple options, pistols, etc. will still be used.
GeneO
September 7th, 2011
9:14 pm
Seems mighty odd “chris” that you , as a “Georgia fan” know so many
of the details of Clemson and South Carolina football which you use to
state your case for Clemson. Why would a Georgia fan look up so many
stats favorable to Clemson? Mighty odd. You did leave out that SC has
stomped Clemson the last 2 years and will again this year.
You did leave out that Clemson had never won anything in football
until Charlie Pell and Danny Ford rewrote the book on how to cheat at
Recruiting. You did leave out that in Columbia they don’t routinely boo
their own team– which they do in Clemson. And many other negatives
about Clem were conveniently left out by you — a ” Georgia fan”
Dabo Swinney
September 7th, 2011
9:15 pm
I don’t want to go to the SEC and be a perennial doormat. I’d rather stay in the ACC where I know I can compete with inferior talent, week in, week out. -Dabo
Heels Rock and Rule
September 7th, 2011
9:18 pm
ECU is the only football school in the state of NC? What is their record against UNC, 3 wins and 15 losses, or thereabouts? Please explain your contention.
Sunny Skies
September 7th, 2011
9:20 pm
Conference expansion realignment:
The ACC
Atlantic. Coastal. Carolina’s. Sunshine
Syracuse. Virginia Tech. UNC. Ga Tech
Boston College. Virginia. NC State. Miami
Pittsburgh. West Virginia. Wake Forest. FSU
UConn. Maryland. Duke. Clemson
Mizzou1
September 7th, 2011
9:20 pm
You can cross Mizzou off that list, our admin is now included in a potential lawsuit if OU does not commit to the Big 12. This assures me that we are not going anywhere anytime soon. More realistic eastern candidates IMO include:
WVU – 50% shot, could be a potential lawsuit by the Big East
VT – 20% shot, not sure how UVA will block this or if the ACC will file suit
UNC – 5% shot, see VT and I doubt UNC would want to give up its life and blood in basketball for SEC football
ECU – 30% shot, out of the box candidate that has built its program up and could do more with BCS talent
Louisville – 5% shot, see WVU and not sure how UK will perceive this
SEC stays at 13 – 50% however, there has been a lot of talk among eastern SEC teams to have a balanced league
Notre Dame – 1% shot, lots of talk that they may be lured to the Big 12 with BYU and another school such as Pitt or Houston if OU stays
DawgDad
September 7th, 2011
9:21 pm
Hailing from Missouri, I don’t see how Missouri comes to the SEC. Kansas-Illinois in football and basketball are just too big in terms of tradition and payoff. Politically, there would be repercussions arising from severing the Kansas-Missouri ties.
At this point anything is pretty much a moot point when it comes to money, but there have to be compelling reasons to deep-six some long-standing traditions. Imagine breaking up Auburn-Alabama, that’s pretty much what Missouri-Kansas is, albeit on a smaller scale.
Texas was the rotten apple in the Big-12. They angered the other schools with strong-arm tactics at the conference level, eventually providing the motivation for Nebraska, Colorado, and A&M to take flight. Personally, I think the Big-12 is better off without those schools AND without Texas. Oklahoma and Ok State may take a hike, too, for the big football money, but either way the conference has some attractive options to reconstruct.
terry Taylor
September 7th, 2011
9:23 pm
Va Tech and UVA, Okla & Okla St., and Kansas and K-State try to act in tandem. Why doesn’t the board of regents force Tech and UGA to act in tandem for the best interest of the state of Georgia.
Dooker
September 7th, 2011
9:25 pm
ECU fans get all puffed up because their fans get drunker, louder, and more uncouth at games than do UNC, Duke, or Wake fans when they play each other. ECU fans think this creates a better game atmosphere. ECU fans will drag your school down to their level.
Surfside Cock
September 7th, 2011
9:32 pm
Clemson stays in the A-she-she where they belong.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
9:33 pm
It would be interesting if the 8 schools trying to force Texas A&M to stay have an enemy in their midst. I bet they do…Texas. They obviously don’t care about the rest of the conference; they’ve bought a pie that only they can eat. The rest of the members should dissolve the the conference and regroup without the Longhorns. I find it frankly ridiculous that those other schools are naive enough to think things are somehow going to work out.
SHOW ME THE MONEY
September 7th, 2011
9:53 pm
HEY MARK…COULD BE THE POWERS THAT BE AREN’T GOING TO ADD TEAMS THEY MAY JUST REMOVE ONE THAT LEADS THE SEC IN ALLTIME VIOLATIONS AND ARE SICK AND TIRED OF THEY’RE CHEATING WAYS…………THINK ABOUT IT!!!
Historian
September 7th, 2011
10:04 pm
Mark,
Listen to ole pal Tony and Wes on the radio and you’ll be better off with your facts.
Oklahoma doesnt wants no part of the SEC academic legacy.
War Eagle 77
September 7th, 2011
11:05 pm
I would say if Clemson was interested then Clemson in the east. Would build some great rivalries with other SEC teams (I’d like to see a yearly games between Auburn & Clemson). Great for the fans & alumni (travel to & from easy, tailgate traditions, good ole southern football). If not Clemson, then look for new markets.
However, Morgantown WVa (home for West Virginia) is a hell of a long way from anywhere. Also, wasn’t West Virginia created by a bunch of yankees seceding from Virginia before the Cival War. Ain’t sure they are southern. LOL!!
Matt mandeville
September 7th, 2011
11:08 pm
Cajdawg – your comments about WVU academics are ridiculous. But what can expect from somebody who consistently uses the word “tard”. WVU is very similar to many SEC schools, it has a fanatical fan base who love football. I don’t think WVU will be invited to the SEC, but if they do, you will quickly see the value in that addition.
Pimprag
September 7th, 2011
11:26 pm
Virginia Tech would be the best fit. They travel well and you will not find a more perfect college football town than Blacksburg Va in the fall.
John
September 7th, 2011
11:28 pm
I can’t stand Clemson. Little redneck school that has history for 2 reasons: 1) they play in the ACC, and 2) they cheated like he’ll and many believe they still do. SC (the university) brings class and money to the league. Clemson is bush league.
I wish we weren’t expanding but if we have to VT and FSU are best fits.
Peter
September 7th, 2011
11:34 pm
I don’t know why the majority of this discussion has centered around Virginia Tech. They’re not going to join the SEC after the hell they (and UVA) went through to get them into the ACC. Plus, like others mentioned, the Virginia legislature will do everything in it’s power to keep the two together.
Missouri seems unsure, and if what previous posters have said is true, they won’t be coming. They would prefer the Big 10 invite anyways, and only will accept and SEC one when they are 100% the Big 12 will collapse.
Clemson, GT, and FSU will all get blocked by South Carolina, UGA, and UF. So who does that leave? West Virginia. WVU has one of the most loyal fan bases in the country, sells out almost every game (sure, they play in a 60,000 seat stadium which is small for SEC standards, but there is a demand for tickets), and probably has one of the top traveling fan bases in the country. And they’ve done extremely well against SEC competition in the past decade. Plus, Morgantown is in the Pittsburgh market, where many WVU fans reside. And geographically, WV is the northernmost southeastern state. It works.
Boo Boo
September 7th, 2011
11:35 pm
It is good the concept of conferences is being challenged. Perhaps rankings and bowl games will also soon become obsolete, with a true tournament for a national championship like the other real sports. However, the crap that the SEC is some powerhouse conference does not hold water. The SEC needs to jettison Valderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missy State, and Arkansas. Those teams could form a new conference with Texas A&M, which is simply another bad college-university that has a bad football record against the “AAAA” pay-to-play schools. Teams like Georgia, Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Auburn (are they still calling that place a college?) need to man up EVERY week and play teams like Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, USC (Sou. Cal), Va Tech, FSU, and others who have suspended all sense of being institutes of higher learning for the big buck of “big time football program.” Miami was there, but they need the death penalty, as do most of the other big time programs. Let the “big dogs” determine which one will end up 0-11, because they have no Western Carolinas, La Techs, Miami (Ohio)s, Furmans, VMIs or other patsies on the schedule.
Hilltopper
September 7th, 2011
11:45 pm
How about this: VT, TAM, OK, OKS to SEC. WV, Pitt, USF, UConn, Rut to ACC. Goodbye Big East and Big 12.