Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard
Georgia didn't fare so well in the Dome against West Virginia, either. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
There’s standard-issue velocity (think Jair Jurrjens), and then there’s college football velocity (think Craig Kimbrel). It was barely a month ago that Texas A&M began making noises about leaving the Big 12, and those noises have become all but a roaring reality. A&M has signaled its intent to leave, and the SEC has offered to provide a new home. All that’s left is for somebody to persuade Baylor — and perhaps other spurned Big 12 schools — not to sue.
The apparent threat of legal action delayed what was to be A&M’s grand announcement Wednesday, but the move figures to happen soon enough. And why would Baylor care what A&M does? Because the Aggies’ leaving could lead to Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State bolting to the Pac-12, and by the time the exodus concludes the Big 12 might be reduced to three months of Baylor playing Iowa State. (Which apparently is also reserving its right to sue.)
Litigation, or the threat thereof, aside, the greater issue remains: Where does the SEC turn after it absorbs A&M?
The original thought was that the SEC could add a 14th team to offer geographical balance and call it a day. But momentum — and here we note again that momentum is a mighty wind — now suggests the SEC won’t stop at 14. The growing possibility that the Pac-12 will pick the plums from what’s left of the Big 12 could force to the SEC to go to 16 teams, or even 15.
And how, you’re asking, might a 15-team conference work? Well, there could be three five-team divisions. And how would three division winners fit into one conference title game? Only the best two would qualify. And how might the best two be determined? Good question. Conference record? Overall record? BCS rankings? Recruiting rankings?
For simplicity’s sake, an even number makes greater sense. So who might be the SEC’s 14th (or 15th and 16th) teams? Glad you asked.
Missouri: Heavy rumors link the Big 12 Tigers to the SEC, although it’s not entirely clear why. The Tigers have historically been better at basketball, and their recent run of football success might not stand the strain of the SEC West. Adding Missouri would broaden the TV base into St. Louis and Kansas City, but a countervailing theory holds that Mizzou sees itself as a better fit in the Big Ten. Chance it lands in the SEC: 50 percent.
West Virginia: Another heavily rumored name. If the intent is to stop at 14 teams, the Mountaineers would make more geographic sense than Missouri. They’d fit in the East, and they’d also serve up a slice of the Eastern Seaboard TV market. And this is a school that takes football seriously. (Witness the burning couches.) Of the teams on the SEC’s draft board, West Virginia would figure to be the easiest to convince. Chance it lands in the SEC: 65 percent.
Virginia Tech: An even more attractive candidate than West Virginia. The Hokies would offer penetration into the Washington, D.C., market, and they play BCS-level (meaning SEC-level) football. Still unclear is whether Virginia Tech, which lobbied hard to get into the ACC alongside Virginia only eight years ago, would split so soon. Chance it lands in the SEC: 37.5 percent.
Oklahoma: The Sooners are the greatest prize out there, but they’re believed to looking first toward the Pac-12. Then again, the SEC did approach Oklahoma last summer, and the Sooners are nothing if not pragmatic. The school’s inclination to trample on tradition — coach Bob Stoops has said super-conferences are the way of the future and that if the annual Texas-OU game gets lost for the sake of progress, so be it — could lead it southward. Chance it lands in the SEC: 30 percent.
North Carolina/N.C. State/Maryland: Any one of these would offer something approximating Virginia Tech, except that all have deeper roots in the ACC and none is as good at football. It’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels leaving the conference they and Duke control, basketball-wise; it’s less hard to picture Maryland and State wanting to get away from Carolina and Duke. Chance of landing in the SEC: 30 percent for Maryland; 20 percent for N.C. State; 5 percent for Carolina.
Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Louisville: Any of these might be welcome under ordinary circumstances, but it’s believed the SEC won’t add teams in states where it has already has a foothold. That said, desperate times could call for desperate measures. Two months ago, would anyone have thought Texas A&M would be SEC-bound in September 2011? Chance of landing in the SEC: 10 percent for Florida State, Clemson and Louisville; 5 percent for Georgia Tech and Miami.
And there’s your scorecard, folks — as of today. A week from now, Boise State might well have emerged as the hottest name on the SEC’s wish list. Although, owing to recent events, the school in Athens might file suit to bar the Broncos.
By Mark Bradley
Photos: Which team do YOU think would be a good fit for the SEC? Vote in our poll.
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416 comments Add your comment
wreckbuzz
September 7th, 2011
4:46 pm
I think Georgia Tech has a greater chance than most think. Of all the schools mentioned above only one has a history with the SEC…GT. If you’re seen to be tearing down tradition by adding Texas A&M, you could be seen returning to tradition by adding GT. Plus GT sits in the unofficial capital of the SEC, Atlanta and the home of the college football hall of fame. Wouldn’t the SEC love to claim all that territory in its entirety?
The Carolina teams would have trouble politically by leaving each other. Same with Virginia Tech leaving Virginia. Florida State is a possibility as is Clemson. But I believe Florida and South Carolina would have a bigger problem with allowing them in than UGA would with Georgia Tech (not talking about fans) because those programs are historically on par or better with them.
It’s possible.
Fear the Turtle!
September 7th, 2011
4:47 pm
PCJ, no offense taken, and you’re welcome for Bobby Ross.
Brave Hokie
September 7th, 2011
4:47 pm
Chicago Richie
September 7th, 2011
12:37 pm
“WVU does a better job of delivering the DC market. The school is only 200 miles from DC and has a huge alumni-base in our nation’s capitol. So much so, that AD Luck scheduled multiple neutral-site games in DC.
VT, on the other hand, is about 370 miles from DC and their alums don’t spend money. Blacksburg is not Fairfax.”
This is an example of the stupid couch-burning logic you’ll be dealing with if the SEC admits WVU…
Blackberry Cobbler
September 7th, 2011
4:47 pm
Think about it this way………….
In most of the Bradley scenarios, wouldn’t aTm and most any of the other schools result in UGA being pushed nearer the bottom of the SEC?
UGA has already become a middle-of-the-road middling commodity on the SEC. Adding most any school on the list of possibilities just pushes UGA to being a bottom-feeder.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:48 pm
Ah yes, Coach Ross. Dang’d San Diego Chargers….
EricVT96
September 7th, 2011
4:52 pm
Matt- any idea how many VT alums live in/around DC? The Boise/VT game last year at Fed Ex was like a Tech home game, only with a larger seating capacity…
As a Tech alum, I can’t help but feel indepted to the ACC and enjoy traveling to almost all of the games… While the SEC would be higher profile, and may give Tech the ammo to contend for a national title, it would be difficult to travel to Baton Rouge and the like.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:52 pm
Flat Tire, yeah actually that’s way more a product of us having Russell Athletic as our sponsor. We’re their guinea pigs these last 4 years (we get a cool 4 mil for it) but it’s a new jersey every season now, and they’re just not as flashy as UA, Adidas or Nike when they do special uni’s. I dunno. White tops at home is supposedly tradition, and the alumni like gold, so they decided gold numbers on white at home and navy numbers on white for away (the players think darker jerseys are more intimidating I hear.) So Tech is being toyed with in my opinion by Russell until we figure out what everyone wants. Plenty of people hated the Gailey era uniforms. I personally don’t care. I just want wins. Wins against rivals. SEC rivals. *saliva*
IL Jacket
September 7th, 2011
4:54 pm
PerimeterCenterJacket, yes-France, Singapore, Shanghai, Peking etc. You should get out beyond the perimeter. As Thomas Friedman says, The World is Flat. He actually had some very nice things to say about Tech in the revised editions. It is where the future is, not some rural hamlets.
Fear the Turtle!
September 7th, 2011
4:55 pm
PCJ, he left College Park after the Len Bias mess, said he was gonna be QB coach for the Buffalo Bills (has coached under Marv Levy before coming to MD), but did a U turn and headed to Atlanta when Curry left for ‘Bama.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
4:55 pm
IL Jacket – Maryland would never give up their lacrosse rivalry with Hopkins. I think they could win the SEC by default, though.
The Georgia Tech overseas affiliation; I forgot about that. The branch in France could play college futbol.
Jaques Strapp
September 7th, 2011
4:56 pm
It will be Tech or Maryland, hope it’s Tech
blazerdawg
September 7th, 2011
4:57 pm
2013 at Grant Field
Furman
Alabama
Tennessee
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia State
Georgia
2013 at Alexander
Tennessee
Kentucky
Florida
Arkansas
Texas A&M
South Carolina
LSU
Georgia
blazerdawg
September 7th, 2011
4:59 pm
I know UGA is in Athens in 2013 – just speculating on future SEC schedules for G Tech
IL Jacket
September 7th, 2011
4:59 pm
Delbert D, or UNC, Duke or Virginia for that matter.
OldWVUFan
September 7th, 2011
4:59 pm
WVU will stay in the Big East, notwithstanding the attractions of the SEC. Why leave when they have a good shot at a BCS game every year and are making $$$$ now anyway. The Big East actually has the rest of the conferences by the balls in both basketball and football- they just don’t know it yet. More TV markets, more national fan bases equals more $$$$.. The only thing missing is a deal with Notre Dame of some sort better than the one that exists.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
5:02 pm
Flat Tire -
Delbert D
I dont think SEC fans will want to travel to much to GT unless they are promised an armed guard to and from Bubba Dump Stadium
Nah. Stay out at the Perimeter area, take MARTA to North Avenue, and walk right past the Varsity and the overpass. Somebody got on my case about taking MARTA to the Philips Arena-GWCC-Georgia Dome station and walking across the plaza and Dome parking lot. Said I could take the next stop, Vine City. Ixnay on that; I don’t have a concealed carry permit, and I’m not as fast a runner as I used to be.
Fear the Turtle!
September 7th, 2011
5:03 pm
OldWVUFan, when the music stops playing, there will likely no longer be a “Big East”. BC, UConn, Rutgers and perhaps Syracuse will be absorbed into what it left of the ACC. The ACC will essentially be absorbed into the Big East, but the ACC hoops brand (Duke, UNC) is too solid to ignore.
Fear the Turtle!
September 7th, 2011
5:04 pm
’scuse me, BC is already in the ACC
Fear the Turtle!
September 7th, 2011
5:05 pm
meant Louisville
blazerdawg
September 7th, 2011
5:07 pm
oops, sorry, had it right the first time – 2011 UGA/Tech in ATL; 2012 UGA/Tech in ATH; 2013 in ATL
replace Furman with Elon as they are already on the 2013 Tech schedule, along with a trip to BYU
Get it done D Rad!
MP
September 7th, 2011
5:08 pm
The SEC should just add every FBS school from the Mid-Atlantic coastline to the Rocky Mountains. That should about do the trick.
Greedy! Greedy! Greedy!
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
5:09 pm
I mean technically Perimeter Center is outside the perimeter…285@400 near Perimeter Mall. That’s why it’s called that. It aint’ Metz or Oxford, but there’s plenty of Tech grads up here. #undergoundsatelitecampus #shhhdon’ttellnobody
blazerdawg
September 7th, 2011
5:10 pm
MP – SEC did not start this – this is self-preservation at this point. Look to the Longhorns for the greed.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
5:10 pm
Fear the Turtle! – Unless Maryland goes to the Big Ten, I don’t see the ACC losing anybody. I’m saying UConn, Rutgers, Syracuse and Pitt move to the ACC.
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
September 7th, 2011
5:12 pm
PerimeterCenterJacket
This is the one Im talking about not sure if what you wrote is what your thinking
http://www.google.com/imgres?q=georgia+tech+2009+uniforms&hl=en&qscrl=1&nord=1&rlz=1T4TSNA_enUS394US394&tbm=isch&tbnid=zlA9OxeImVx8vM:&imgrefurl=http://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2010/7/19/1576404/now-for-the-great-debate-the&docid=611f4HDY0×4WeM&w=2048&h=1536&ei=rt1nTtuJE5K-tgegreW7DQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=337&vpy=108&dur=1487&hovh=194&hovw=259&tx=181&ty=110&page=1&tbnh=171&tbnw=222&start=0&ndsp=19&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0&biw=1366&bih=641
Sorry for the link best I could
One of the best uniforms in college football and Im a diehard dawg. Still love my red though but not that crap from last Saturday
Hokie Hokie High
September 7th, 2011
5:14 pm
I need to set the record straight for everyone on here there is no law that va tech and uva have to be in same conference. I live in VA they talked about it but the tech fans (voters) lost their minds and the politicians didn’t want to risk their careers. So Va Tech is free and clear to do what they want
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
5:14 pm
Yeah, MP, what’s greedy is Texas going “Hey thanks for being in this conference completely controlled by us, but now you’re gonna have to endure us using our own TV network to recruit highschoolers too. Yall cool with that?”…”Aw, Colorado, Nebraska, where ya goin?” “Well at least we got our Texas schools, right lil Aggie buddy?” *gets the finger from Reveille* “What’s that? SEC?” “Noooo!!”
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
5:15 pm
Louisville would be a bad fit for the ACC. They are tied with WVU at #176 in the US News rankings. Plus, they are in Kentucky.
IL Jacket
September 7th, 2011
5:15 pm
TECHnically, nice pun.
OldWVUFan
September 7th, 2011
5:17 pm
Turtle
I can see an ACC-BE blend. It would be a great conference with lots of interest and revenues. Back when, the SEC and ACC were spun from the old Southern Conference. WVU was a SoCon member actually. There is a lot of history in all this. Hopefully, everybody wins and is happy in the end. A playoff would be better though.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
5:17 pm
Oh holy crap, yes, Mr. Flat Tire! Those were the throwbacks we wore against UVA in 2006. They were glorious. It’s from the Bud Carson era (same as our Budweiser song tradition.) I don’t know a SINGLE Tech fan who didn’t love those. I think that gold shade might get a little old after a while, but it’s such a great traditional uniform. I think Russell Athletic (if we even keep them in the next few years) should pay attention and put us back in something like that full time (with toned down shade of Old Gold just a bit.) The white helmets were the big hit though. Totally boss, in my book.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
5:20 pm
My post got filtered again…The throwback uni’s from 2006 were tremendous and every Tech fan loved them. I would like to see Russell pay more attention to that style (maybe tone the gold down JUST a tad there.) But the white helmets were just artful. Just glorious. Oh and we won that game too…
LetsGoHokies
September 7th, 2011
5:23 pm
I need to set the record straight there is no law that Uva and Va Tech have to be in the same conference. I live in VA and they talked about making it a law. The Va Tech fans (voters) flipped out and the politicians didn’t want to lose their jobs and dropped it. Tech is free and clear to do what they want
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
5:28 pm
You VPI, right? There’s no “Tech” anywhere else but Atlanta…at least not one playing collitch foozball…
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
5:29 pm
* mean
You MEAN VPI, right? typos…killin my edge…needadrank
King Gator
September 7th, 2011
5:29 pm
I’d like to see either Clemson, VA Tech, W Virginia or OK St – Go Gators, gig those Aggies SEC style!
Just sayin' what we'e ALL thinking....
September 7th, 2011
5:29 pm
West Virginia? Seriously? The SEC does not need any more inferior academic schools. Auburn and LSU are already dragging down the whole Conference’s academic reputation. Please, no WV!!
LetsGoHokies
September 7th, 2011
5:30 pm
wow thought I got filtered the first time i guess not sorry for the double post
LetsGoHokies
September 7th, 2011
5:31 pm
Their is only one Tech relavant to College Football and its not in Atlanta
LetsGoHokies
September 7th, 2011
5:33 pm
I have to say I like the tradition of Ga Tech but aren’t you guys tired of this gimmick offense making you guys look silly. Kinda like the blue turf for Boise, real football teams don’t need gimmicks. I wish the jackets would give it up and return to the Rambling Wreck!!!!
Doug the Jacket
September 7th, 2011
5:34 pm
You might be right! Blazerdawg – “UGA administration and most alum would support Ga Tech in the SEC, but Tech needs to reach out to Slive – and now! UGA will cooperate and work in the best interest of the system and state.” I hope it happens – it would liven up the UGA-Tech series, along with Alabama, Auburn, Florida.
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
5:35 pm
LetsGoHokies, tell that to the president of the University — he basically said no to the SEC already. But if the alumni flood his inbox and switchboard, maybe he’ll change his mind. (Not holding my breath though.)
Cafeej
September 7th, 2011
5:37 pm
If Maryland is going anywhere it is to the Big 10 who is looking to expand further east. It already has the New York media market with Penn State and will capture Washington-Baltimore with Maryland. Additionally there are a lot of alumnai from Big 10 schools in that area. Maryland has always been a poor stepchild to the deizens of tobacco road and will not miss the ACC.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
5:39 pm
Hey now, that gimmick offense has been pretty confusing for Coach Bud Foster lately, alright? Look at the stats. You were beaten by a fracture in Nesbitt’s arm. And if we’re talking tradition then understand it’s still football and it’s not all that different than Bobby Dodd’s “Belly Series.” It’s not a gimmick. It’s a spread offense which relies on a flexbone set of option pays and play-action passes. We can still run Power I stuff out of it if we need to, but why when the dive keep and pitchout are working well enough? Just wait until the GT-VPI whiteout in ATL this season. We’ll see who’s gimmicky then! Or who’s in the SEC…ugh….(head in hands)
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
5:48 pm
Doug the Jacket, wouldn’t mind seeing GT back in the fold. And given the rivalry, Auburn would probably not block it. Only thing though, the SEC would have to redraw the divisions; you can’t bring Tech back in and have Auburn remain in the West; that would be just plain wrong! Auburn has already had to give up playing the Gators every year, despite being the closest school to Gainesville and being the third longest rivalry, behind UGA (114) and GT (92). (Technically, Auburn has now played more games against Miss State (84) than Florida (82), but it doesn’t date back as far, and it isn’t really much of a rivalry.)
Richt`s Hammer
September 7th, 2011
5:53 pm
Anything new on Georgia`s application to conference USA?
Dontavius Supremo
September 7th, 2011
5:53 pm
Clemson & Florida State in the eastern division, Texas A & M and Oklahoma in the west. Perfection personified! Nuff said.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
5:57 pm
Dontavius, yer gettin my mean eye for that one….
Richt`s Hammer
September 7th, 2011
5:59 pm
Just in Georgia has accepted a conference USA invite. The SEC is replacing Georgia with Georgia Tech.
Durrrrty Bird
September 7th, 2011
6:02 pm
aw it’s so cute how all the clemmons people want to play with the big boys in the SEC.
Keep that puke orange and purple in the ACC, GO DAWGS!!!