Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard
Georgia didn't fare so well in the Dome against West Virginia, either. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
There’s standard-issue velocity (think Jair Jurrjens), and then there’s college football velocity (think Craig Kimbrel). It was barely a month ago that Texas A&M began making noises about leaving the Big 12, and those noises have become all but a roaring reality. A&M has signaled its intent to leave, and the SEC has offered to provide a new home. All that’s left is for somebody to persuade Baylor — and perhaps other spurned Big 12 schools — not to sue.
The apparent threat of legal action delayed what was to be A&M’s grand announcement Wednesday, but the move figures to happen soon enough. And why would Baylor care what A&M does? Because the Aggies’ leaving could lead to Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State bolting to the Pac-12, and by the time the exodus concludes the Big 12 might be reduced to three months of Baylor playing Iowa State. (Which apparently is also reserving its right to sue.)
Litigation, or the threat thereof, aside, the greater issue remains: Where does the SEC turn after it absorbs A&M?
The original thought was that the SEC could add a 14th team to offer geographical balance and call it a day. But momentum — and here we note again that momentum is a mighty wind — now suggests the SEC won’t stop at 14. The growing possibility that the Pac-12 will pick the plums from what’s left of the Big 12 could force to the SEC to go to 16 teams, or even 15.
And how, you’re asking, might a 15-team conference work? Well, there could be three five-team divisions. And how would three division winners fit into one conference title game? Only the best two would qualify. And how might the best two be determined? Good question. Conference record? Overall record? BCS rankings? Recruiting rankings?
For simplicity’s sake, an even number makes greater sense. So who might be the SEC’s 14th (or 15th and 16th) teams? Glad you asked.
Missouri: Heavy rumors link the Big 12 Tigers to the SEC, although it’s not entirely clear why. The Tigers have historically been better at basketball, and their recent run of football success might not stand the strain of the SEC West. Adding Missouri would broaden the TV base into St. Louis and Kansas City, but a countervailing theory holds that Mizzou sees itself as a better fit in the Big Ten. Chance it lands in the SEC: 50 percent.
West Virginia: Another heavily rumored name. If the intent is to stop at 14 teams, the Mountaineers would make more geographic sense than Missouri. They’d fit in the East, and they’d also serve up a slice of the Eastern Seaboard TV market. And this is a school that takes football seriously. (Witness the burning couches.) Of the teams on the SEC’s draft board, West Virginia would figure to be the easiest to convince. Chance it lands in the SEC: 65 percent.
Virginia Tech: An even more attractive candidate than West Virginia. The Hokies would offer penetration into the Washington, D.C., market, and they play BCS-level (meaning SEC-level) football. Still unclear is whether Virginia Tech, which lobbied hard to get into the ACC alongside Virginia only eight years ago, would split so soon. Chance it lands in the SEC: 37.5 percent.
Oklahoma: The Sooners are the greatest prize out there, but they’re believed to looking first toward the Pac-12. Then again, the SEC did approach Oklahoma last summer, and the Sooners are nothing if not pragmatic. The school’s inclination to trample on tradition — coach Bob Stoops has said super-conferences are the way of the future and that if the annual Texas-OU game gets lost for the sake of progress, so be it — could lead it southward. Chance it lands in the SEC: 30 percent.
North Carolina/N.C. State/Maryland: Any one of these would offer something approximating Virginia Tech, except that all have deeper roots in the ACC and none is as good at football. It’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels leaving the conference they and Duke control, basketball-wise; it’s less hard to picture Maryland and State wanting to get away from Carolina and Duke. Chance of landing in the SEC: 30 percent for Maryland; 20 percent for N.C. State; 5 percent for Carolina.
Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Louisville: Any of these might be welcome under ordinary circumstances, but it’s believed the SEC won’t add teams in states where it has already has a foothold. That said, desperate times could call for desperate measures. Two months ago, would anyone have thought Texas A&M would be SEC-bound in September 2011? Chance of landing in the SEC: 10 percent for Florida State, Clemson and Louisville; 5 percent for Georgia Tech and Miami.
And there’s your scorecard, folks — as of today. A week from now, Boise State might well have emerged as the hottest name on the SEC’s wish list. Although, owing to recent events, the school in Athens might file suit to bar the Broncos.
By Mark Bradley
Photos: Which team do YOU think would be a good fit for the SEC? Vote in our poll.
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416 comments Add your comment
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
3:25 pm
Delbert D., on the 9 votes, that will go to 10, once A&M joins; but yes, there are sufficient votes to block, which was my point. (Probably should have said it only took 9.)
As for recruiting, FSU is currently doing very well. Whether they continue to do so, will depend on what they accomplish with those recruits. SEC membership is an advantage for attracting top talent, but it is not the only factor. Top programs and coaches along with expectation can mitigate that advantage, but it is still a factor for some recruits, due to the exposure that the SEC brings over the ACC. The four schools mention will not want to give up that advantage, since they all recruit heavily in Florida.
AlT
September 7th, 2011
3:25 pm
Yes I get it, the big ten network is already in the Atlanta market and part of Comcast’s sports package right? Not much help from a subscription standpoint. Networks don’t survive on subscriptions anyways. It’s all about Ad revenue. Sure, they’ll pick up viewers when GT plays but I’m saying they don’t threaten the SEC’s ratings and never will. Therefore, not a threat.
Karl USC
September 7th, 2011
3:33 pm
I would add East Carolina as an outside candidate…avoid lawsuits with other conferences and they have a great football tradition and fan base. Gives USC another close away game too.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
3:33 pm
GTBob, I’m saying the new fans would be your fellow Atlantans who are there to see the game. They’ll be mostly unaffiliated, but there money would go to GT and the conference. That’s how every school builds a fanbase – give your community a good show to come see. And Atlanta doesn’t come out to watch GT play Wake, Duke, Miami, BC, Maryland, NCSU, or UVA. They come for Southern rivals. They’ll show up for VT, Clemson, FSU, UNC and UGA. Beyond that, we’d need to be in the SEC for them to come to games and root for us. Oh, and to get them to that stage we’d need to win a few games. Not many, because if Tennessee, Florida, Bama or Auburn are coming to town fans will show up just to see the spectacle of it. And that’s the whole point.
GT recently released a study showing that only 11% of GT fans buying tickets to GT football games are the type to have no connection to the school. People that is VERY LOW for the Southeast! GT needed a new conference the moment it left the SEC.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
3:33 pm
Cluett Peabody – I wasn’t responding to your post, mostly just rambling along in my own thoughts. The Notre Dame…not a clue what they will do. I’d like to see Army and Navy get something out of this. I wish the U of Miami would just go away. If Tampa is “South Florida”, the government should reassign Miami and anything further down that way to Puerto Rico, or the Virgin Islands or some place. No, on second thought, keep the mangrove coast along the west side of the state, and also the Keys.
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
3:33 pm
mdog, ECU has a good football program, unfortunately, the SEC isn’t going to take a school that has a direction in front of its name, unless it is the name of a state. In other words, the SEC is only interested in the two top schools in a state (i.e. “University of ” or ” State/Tech/A&M”). Sorry, just the way it is.
NCDawg fan
September 7th, 2011
3:35 pm
I think if the Dawgs run the table in the SEC that Bradley should don a Speedo and pom poms and sing UGA fight song!
BlueMoon
September 7th, 2011
3:35 pm
For the folks laughing at East Carolina…it HAS been discussed and is a real possibility.
They have a huge student/fan base, are an upcoming program and could match facilities with only 2-4 years in the league. This is also a way of expanding the conference without immediately putting another superpower in the way of another team getting through the season undefeated, thus, eliminating them from the national title.
This is one to keep your eye on…
GTBob
September 7th, 2011
3:35 pm
AIT, The Big Ten Network currently gets about 70 cents per subscriber in states in their footprint and about 10 cents per subscriber in states outside of their footprint. I don’t know how many Atlanta subscribers the Big 10 Network currently has but in Missouri there are around 2.2 million subscribers. If the Big 10 expanded there it would be an increase of around 1.5 million dollars a month not even including the added Missouri fans. Atlanta would probably have similar if not higher numbers.
John in Atlanta
September 7th, 2011
3:37 pm
It’s interesting that Stoops at Oklahoma keeps saying that OU isn’t tied to Texas (as in playing Texas every year).
From what I hear, the OU administrators (president, etc…) have their eyes on the Pac-10, but the fans want the SEC.
Makes you wonder which side Stoops is on?
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
3:37 pm
Cluett Peabody – Oh, yeah, about the potential merger? Just call it the Southern Crescent Conference, because it would sort of be shaped like one, Arkansas to Maryland. It’s also a train, from D.C. to New Orleans, I think.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
3:39 pm
I know it’s not the popular theory but I say GT is way more of a candidate than people think but only if Clemson’s taken with it.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
3:42 pm
As far as East Carolina is concerned, who outside whatever state it is in would know what state it is in? Coastal Carolina is somewhere on a coast. These directional schools seem pretty limp, name-wise. Maybe there is a West Virginia Eastern, that would take the cake.
Alphare
September 7th, 2011
3:43 pm
I agree It’s not all about market, it’s about rating. For example LSU-Oregon game drew a much bigger rating than UGA-BSU game.
People care more about match-up than geographic locations.
For that reason, I think Tech would be the best choice.
WVU1993
September 7th, 2011
3:46 pm
If you look at the DC market, Navy is an after thought. I live just outside of DC and in terms of coverage and who’s on regional / local TV, it is either WVU, VT, Maryland, East Carolina, Penn State, and UVA. Navy is on the same levels as a James Madison around these parts. Nothing against Navy or the service academies but they will not get through a full BCS schedule. MASN shows Big East games of the week including many WVU games and has shown many ECU games as well. I would love if WVU joined the SEC but not sure if our administration would want to break ties with the Big Least / eat sh!tPitt. When it is all said and done, I think the ACC will stay in tact, VT will not go without UVA and the NC schools are all together so and it will be either us or ECU in the SEC to balance the east.
Alphare
September 7th, 2011
3:48 pm
I like 3 5-team divisions for SEC, Tech/Clemson/FSU are my choices, or another Texas school.
Like a business, you care about your core business and avoid diluting your core products. Far-away places like DC may give people fatigue to even think about. With that logic, Tech/Clemson/FSU or another Texas school should be good.
AlT
September 7th, 2011
3:49 pm
GTBob, again, the money is in ad revenue. That is why a Nebraska goes before a Mizzou or a GT. Subribers is secondary and finite. I just think that if the Big Ten were interested, they’d have been there already.
Ray Goof
September 7th, 2011
3:50 pm
Whoever it is, one of my chicken restaurants is there.
RxDawg
September 7th, 2011
3:56 pm
No to WVU. They really don’t bring anything to the table. Their academics would rank dead last among SEC schools.
BigTimeTechFan
September 7th, 2011
4:00 pm
Big Power Conf
SoCal
Texas
Alabama
Notre Dame
Florida
Florida St
Ohio St
Michigan
Nebraska
Miami
Georgia Tech
Va Tech
Stanford
LSU
BYU
Boise St
Bradley
September 7th, 2011
4:01 pm
You have it wrong, they are keeping it at 12. UGA is getting kicked out to join the ACC where it can be competitive.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:02 pm
One big plus for the SEC if it takes GT – dilute the red. Look at the SEC today, folks. Bama Crimson, Arky Red, Missy State Maroon, Ole Miss Red, Georgia Red, and now Aggie Maroon. After red the SEC has its blues and oranges. Here’s a conference that could seriously use some Old Gold and White. Just sayin…
Stinger2
September 7th, 2011
4:03 pm
Mark: Why mention GT with only a five percent chance?
Curious George
September 7th, 2011
4:03 pm
Doesn’t the SEC have enough teams with the same Maroon/Crimson & White color scheme?
Curious George
September 7th, 2011
4:04 pm
When Mississippi State & Texas A&M play one another, how will we tell them apart?
BrewDog
September 7th, 2011
4:06 pm
One key thing you all seem to be missing out on for WVU’s ‘value’ is that they absolutely deliver the Pittsburgh and Western PA market. That coupled with the fact that they deliver as much of the DC market as VT could claim to, leads you to conclude that the TV value that they bring is far greater than just the perceived state population.
Beyond that you will find that WV has a non-trivial national (or at least east coast) following as many of their fans and alumni have had to relocate to other areas.
I’m not implying that it is a good fit, but the value is there for WVU.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:08 pm
Argh, posts getting filtered. Look, the SEC needs GT because it has too many teams wearing red and it just took another one. Lookahere now:
Arkansas – Red
Alabama – Darker Red
Ole Miss – Red
Missy State – Mar(red)oon
Georgia – Cwayola Wed
Texas A&M – Maroon
Potentials:
VT – Red AND Orange (don’t get me started on Orange)
FSU – Purplyred
GT – Beautiful shades of prestigious White and Gold! JOY AND WONDERMENT!
Tech is the clear choice, people. Clear and gleaming!
Curious George
September 7th, 2011
4:08 pm
Why do my questions keep going the blog filter?
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:09 pm
Curious George, when Bama played Arkansas I asked myself the same thing. Red, White, A-logo, tall passing QB’s…
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
4:11 pm
Alphare – The UGA-BSU Chick-fil-A contest was localized by ESPN. It was on ESPN3 for those who weren’t in the footprint and knew how to operate a computer. The Jerry Jones Invitational was national, wasn’t it? Regular network broadcast?
Jeremy
September 7th, 2011
4:12 pm
Couple of things. 1) WVU brings the DC market as well. There are more WVU Alumni in DC area than anywhere else outside the state. 2) While West Virginia’s population is approximately 1.8 million, WVU’s television market is incorporated with the Pittsburgh market (being it’s only an hour away).
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:16 pm
I’m just not market is what matters. What kind of market share do some of the current SEC teams bring? I mean, MSU? Arkansas? Ole Miss? What, Biloxi, Jackon, Little Rock and maybe by association Memphis and tiny chunks of Atlanta and Dallas? If it’s all business all the time I’d think they (along with Vandy) are continuing their lucky star’s to be allowed to stay in the SEC.
This TV market thing may have appliead to TAMU, but it may not be the sole determinant of the other(s) coming in soon.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:17 pm
* convinced
I’m not CONVINCED market is what matters.
Mountaineer
September 7th, 2011
4:20 pm
West Virginia : civil war north and south. perfect combination.
Told Virginia in 1863: “See ya later”
West Virginia has beaten Auburn, Georgia and Miss State since 2006. They’re a good fit.
jerry
September 7th, 2011
4:22 pm
Notre Dame. Wait, they are Catholic–not sure how that would go over at UGA.
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
September 7th, 2011
4:26 pm
PerimeterCenterJacket
Puke colored gold and half empty high school stadiums is not a choice for the SEC
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
4:28 pm
I’m not at all surprised that more WVU graduates are located in D.C. than anywhere else. Anywhere beyond D.C. is too far to walk.
2010 BCS CHAMPS
September 7th, 2011
4:30 pm
Trade UGA for Florida State.
Fear the Turtle!
September 7th, 2011
4:31 pm
OK, MD is not “very good at football” but it is good at football. I think MD (along with ND) will end up in the Big 10. I think either FSU or GA Tech makes better sense, and I think the SEC will opt to keep “good ol’ fashioned hateful” rivalry games alive and not worry so much about more than one team per state. When this thing is over (6 16 team super conferences, 2 at large for 8 team playoff) there will be little room on schedules for out of conference rivalry games. Which reminds me; VA Tech might want to look into the SEC, lest it have to play JMU again
Curious George
September 7th, 2011
4:31 pm
If Oklahoma were to play Alabama for the SEC Title, would both schools already be on standing NCAA probation?
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
4:35 pm
SEC with 16 teams: 4 divisions with each team playing the three other teams in the division, one rival in each of the other three divisions, and one rotating game in the other divisions, resulting in nine conference games per season. All rotating opponents are played twice every six years.
West: Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, TAMU
Central: Bama, Miss. State, Vandy, Tennessee
South: Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
East: Kentucky, NC State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Nearly all rivalries could be accommodated, though a few of the more lopsided ones would be lost, notably Auburn-MSU, but Auburn-Florida, which was longer before the split and nearly even would resume. (Note: Auburn’s traditional rivals were east and south [UGA, GT, FL] whereas Bama’s were north and west [MSU, UT, LSU, Vandy], so it makes sense to put them in different divisions.)
This configuration assumes that OU deigns not to join and that Mizzou prefers the B1G, but those could work in lieu of VaTech and NCSU.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
4:35 pm
Flat Tire – Just think of it as an early bowl game. SEC folks travel well, and where better to travel than to Atlanta?
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:38 pm
Cool, Flat Tire. You sayin’ LSU’s gold is any better? Or Vandy’s? Well, no one ever really SEE’s Vandy’s gold, becuase of all the blood but…anyway I’m a stadium half full man myself. Or totally full if we go back to the SEC. Our fans wanna see the old rivals come back. That’s all I’ve been sayin…
Fear the Turtle!
September 7th, 2011
4:38 pm
In the early 80’s, MD’s out of conference games included at least one SEC school per season, sometimes two (OK, 1.5, it was Vandy in ‘80, ‘81, ‘83 and ‘84), but the Terps also faced off against FL (’81) and Auburn, ‘83. I also see WVU as a better fit for a 16 team Big 10 (MD, WVU, ND, and Pitt or Syracuse). It’s all about the Benjamins
EW
September 7th, 2011
4:41 pm
Based on your logic and percentages MB, there is a 257.50% chance that Mizzou, WVU, VaTech, Ok, Nc, NC State, Maryland, GT, FSU, Miami,Clemson, OR Louisville will be in the SEC….GEE THANKS MARK FOR THIS WONDERFUL INSIGHT!!!!!!!!
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
4:41 pm
When I lived in South Jersey in the late ’70s, Penn St. got most of the ink in the Philly papers and sports news on TV. They had big rivalry games with Maryland, West Virginia and, of course, Pitt.
IL Jacket
September 7th, 2011
4:41 pm
30% for Maryland is too high (how many SEC teams play lacrosse); 20% for NC State is too high (they are one of the Big 4); and 5% for Grorgia Tech is too high (the Institute is heading in another direction-see overseas affiliations).
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:42 pm
Gross, why are we talking about all these Yankee schools?! I want Southern competition. And don’t try to tell me people from the Land of Mary consider themselves Southern. Crabcakes and flag helmets…go play with your testudos or something….
(this post not serious)
gt4ever
September 7th, 2011
4:42 pm
It will be GT. Back where they belong….
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
4:46 pm
IL Jacket, overseas affiliations?! TAMU has a full on CAMPUS in Qatar!! GT’s international student demographic is only around 7% of the undergraduate student body. I mean we have international students, but we’re still like 75% white, upper middle class, and from the state of Georgia. You can get all those stats at GT’s website.