Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard
Georgia didn't fare so well in the Dome against West Virginia, either. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
There’s standard-issue velocity (think Jair Jurrjens), and then there’s college football velocity (think Craig Kimbrel). It was barely a month ago that Texas A&M began making noises about leaving the Big 12, and those noises have become all but a roaring reality. A&M has signaled its intent to leave, and the SEC has offered to provide a new home. All that’s left is for somebody to persuade Baylor — and perhaps other spurned Big 12 schools — not to sue.
The apparent threat of legal action delayed what was to be A&M’s grand announcement Wednesday, but the move figures to happen soon enough. And why would Baylor care what A&M does? Because the Aggies’ leaving could lead to Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State bolting to the Pac-12, and by the time the exodus concludes the Big 12 might be reduced to three months of Baylor playing Iowa State. (Which apparently is also reserving its right to sue.)
Litigation, or the threat thereof, aside, the greater issue remains: Where does the SEC turn after it absorbs A&M?
The original thought was that the SEC could add a 14th team to offer geographical balance and call it a day. But momentum — and here we note again that momentum is a mighty wind — now suggests the SEC won’t stop at 14. The growing possibility that the Pac-12 will pick the plums from what’s left of the Big 12 could force to the SEC to go to 16 teams, or even 15.
And how, you’re asking, might a 15-team conference work? Well, there could be three five-team divisions. And how would three division winners fit into one conference title game? Only the best two would qualify. And how might the best two be determined? Good question. Conference record? Overall record? BCS rankings? Recruiting rankings?
For simplicity’s sake, an even number makes greater sense. So who might be the SEC’s 14th (or 15th and 16th) teams? Glad you asked.
Missouri: Heavy rumors link the Big 12 Tigers to the SEC, although it’s not entirely clear why. The Tigers have historically been better at basketball, and their recent run of football success might not stand the strain of the SEC West. Adding Missouri would broaden the TV base into St. Louis and Kansas City, but a countervailing theory holds that Mizzou sees itself as a better fit in the Big Ten. Chance it lands in the SEC: 50 percent.
West Virginia: Another heavily rumored name. If the intent is to stop at 14 teams, the Mountaineers would make more geographic sense than Missouri. They’d fit in the East, and they’d also serve up a slice of the Eastern Seaboard TV market. And this is a school that takes football seriously. (Witness the burning couches.) Of the teams on the SEC’s draft board, West Virginia would figure to be the easiest to convince. Chance it lands in the SEC: 65 percent.
Virginia Tech: An even more attractive candidate than West Virginia. The Hokies would offer penetration into the Washington, D.C., market, and they play BCS-level (meaning SEC-level) football. Still unclear is whether Virginia Tech, which lobbied hard to get into the ACC alongside Virginia only eight years ago, would split so soon. Chance it lands in the SEC: 37.5 percent.
Oklahoma: The Sooners are the greatest prize out there, but they’re believed to looking first toward the Pac-12. Then again, the SEC did approach Oklahoma last summer, and the Sooners are nothing if not pragmatic. The school’s inclination to trample on tradition — coach Bob Stoops has said super-conferences are the way of the future and that if the annual Texas-OU game gets lost for the sake of progress, so be it — could lead it southward. Chance it lands in the SEC: 30 percent.
North Carolina/N.C. State/Maryland: Any one of these would offer something approximating Virginia Tech, except that all have deeper roots in the ACC and none is as good at football. It’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels leaving the conference they and Duke control, basketball-wise; it’s less hard to picture Maryland and State wanting to get away from Carolina and Duke. Chance of landing in the SEC: 30 percent for Maryland; 20 percent for N.C. State; 5 percent for Carolina.
Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Louisville: Any of these might be welcome under ordinary circumstances, but it’s believed the SEC won’t add teams in states where it has already has a foothold. That said, desperate times could call for desperate measures. Two months ago, would anyone have thought Texas A&M would be SEC-bound in September 2011? Chance of landing in the SEC: 10 percent for Florida State, Clemson and Louisville; 5 percent for Georgia Tech and Miami.
And there’s your scorecard, folks — as of today. A week from now, Boise State might well have emerged as the hottest name on the SEC’s wish list. Although, owing to recent events, the school in Athens might file suit to bar the Broncos.
By Mark Bradley
Photos: Which team do YOU think would be a good fit for the SEC? Vote in our poll.
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
416 comments Add your comment
Doug the Jacket
September 7th, 2011
2:32 pm
The SEC does not have the guts it would take to return GT to the conference.
lawzoo
September 7th, 2011
2:33 pm
Got news for you Mark ….Carolina is in the S.E.C. and they’re beating Ga. on Saturday !
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
2:34 pm
NC State makes the most sense, since the VT president has already effectively said no. NC State is in a similar position to Texas A&M, being in the perpetual shadow of UNC and their sidekick Duke. NC State would not collapse the ACC like UNC’s leaving would; in fact, it would actually help the ACC, since they would probably add Syracuse, UConn, and/or Rutgers and expand their media footprint. Having four schools in one state is not good for negotiating with networks.
Granted, NC State’s football program is not stellar, but neither is Texas A&M’s, (though A&M has historically been much better). And there is a lot of good football talent in North Carolina, that currently goes to ECU or out-of-state, that would be drawn to an in-state SEC school.
The benefit to the SEC is two top-30 media markets, NC recruiting, another AAU school, and proximity (NC already borders three existing SEC states: TN, GA, & SC). Also, like Auburn, Florida, LSU, and A&M, NC State is a land, sea, and space grant school.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
2:35 pm
aw, lawzoo, that’s cute. You think people in Georgia think “Carolina” refers to South Carolina! Sorry, little guy. We all know that’s a Tarheel moniker. But by all means be my guest to beat UGA. I’m just sayin’ no one here calls SCe “Carolina.”
ormewood
September 7th, 2011
2:35 pm
Robodawg, NC State may have decent academics per SEC standards, but according to the just-released US News & World Report rankings, they are dead last in the ACC.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
September 7th, 2011
2:36 pm
Ok – lets skip Super conference and jump to “Mega Conference” and volt from the NCAA. Here is a hypothetical breakdown, trying align teams geographically and keeping rivalrys in place.
SEC WEST
—————–
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Alabama
Auburn
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisville
SEC NORTH
——————
W. Virginia
Va Tech
Vandy
NC State
Maryland
North Carolina
Duke
SEC SOUTH
———————
Ga Tech
FSU
Florida
Miami
Clemson
South Carolina
Georgia
SEC CENTRAL
———————-
Miss St
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
LSU
USF
Memphis
28 team conference
10 team playoff
Winner from each division are the top four qualifiers. Next six are based on record. Top two teams get a bye. Plays out over say two weeks.
The winner of our 28 team conference plays the winner of the NCAA BCS Title game the week before the Super Bowl.
K
September 7th, 2011
2:36 pm
GA Tech to the Big Ten….this could open the Atlanta market to the Big Ten schools!
OldWVUFan
September 7th, 2011
2:37 pm
In terms of DC’s TV market, the MASN network routinely shows WVU games as Big East fare. I suppose the MASN execs have seen adequate ratings from them or they wouldn’t show them. WVU also routinely fills national ESPN game slots on Thursdays and off days and these seem to generate interest across the spectrum. As it stands, a WVU fan can almost be guaranteed to see a televised game on either a regional or national basis weekly. They must sells ads for the networks. If it is about eyeballs and TV, I do not think comparisons with VT or Maryland are apt. Those clubs do not engender the same level of fanaticism.
Dan
September 7th, 2011
2:39 pm
Virginia Tech’s chances are closer to 3.75 percent. The SEC might want the Hokies, but the Hokies aren’t interested. Very, very slim chance the Hokies will leave.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
2:40 pm
Let’s Go – How about UConn and Syracuse instead of USF and WVa, along with Pitt and Rutgers? Better picks for basketball, plus It gives the ACC presence where they need it. The south Florida market is already there with Miami, and West Virginia doesn’t have a market.
Blazerdawg
September 7th, 2011
2:43 pm
UGA administration and most alum would support Ga Tech in the SEC, but Tech needs to reach out to Slive – and now! UGA will cooperate and work in the best interest of the system and state.
octavian
September 7th, 2011
2:43 pm
NC State is the logical choice, provided the Pack can be persuaaded to leave – and provided UNC can be persuaded to let them go.
NC State brings entre into the NC market, which is large. NC borders SC, TN, and GA. If NC State were added, the SEC would dominate college athletics from the New River to the Rio Grande, an area of tremendous size.
Dan
September 7th, 2011
2:44 pm
Unless the SEC drops its opposition to expanding in current markets, nobody’s leaving the ACC. Clemson, Georgia Tech and Florida State could probably be picked off by the SEC, but those will get blocked (especially the Seminoles, who would also be opposed by Alabama). Any Virginia or North Carolina schools are simply pipe dreams, unless the SEC decides it wants East Carolina.
glsjunior
September 7th, 2011
2:44 pm
No way you add OK without OK State.
Georgia State to the Big East!
Gator Fan
September 7th, 2011
2:45 pm
I have really bad breath.
AlT
September 7th, 2011
2:45 pm
Yeah, Nebraska sure had a big TV market. The Big Ten would not put a dent in the SEC’s hold over Atlanta TV ratings if GT goes there.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
2:46 pm
Lowcountry – Well, that’s sort of over the top, but creative. Wouldn’t call it the SEC, though. The old SEC members would be out-voted for naming considerations. Also, I’d recommend just about any other school to replace Memphis.
harold
September 7th, 2011
2:47 pm
WORD IS THAT TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA DONORS AND THEIR FANS WOULD PREFER SEC OVER THE PAC-12.THEY RELATE MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN THE “LEFT-COAST”!
GTBob
September 7th, 2011
2:50 pm
Yeah, Nebraska sure had a big TV market. The Big Ten would not put a dent in the SEC’s hold over Atlanta TV ratings if GT goes there.
They wouldn’t need to put a dent in it. The Big 10 network gets a higher payout for markets that include their teams. If they expanded to Atlanta then they would get a higher payout from all Atlanta subscribers, including any new subscribers from GT being added. That alone would probably be worth it.
Cluett Peabody
September 7th, 2011
2:50 pm
how about the service academys and ND if you really want market – ND is nationwide and anapolis is closer to DC and west point is closer to NY. not to mention those schools could enhance the academic standards of the sec. I “think” the sec realizes the biz model of going solely for tv markets doesn’t really work that well – just ask the acc how that model has worked for them… if I am king of the sec i would go for traditional rivalries in the south as that is what gets most eyes on the sets – i do not know but would guess that those old rivalries (clemson – uga, gt – bama, fsu – auburn) is far more interesting than maimi – bc or wv – ole miss. in other words strengthen the existing tv markets rather than adding big markets with small interest in college football.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
2:51 pm
AIT – The Big Ten Network is already carried by Comcast in Atlanta. There are so many people from the northern midwest in Atlanta, I’m sure that it would increase the number of viewers with Georgia Tech followers buying in.
John in Atlanta
September 7th, 2011
2:55 pm
There are several strong reasons why GEORGIA TECH should be the 14th team that you missed:
(1) Tradition & Rivalries
GA Tech was a founding meber of the SEC, consequently they still have historic rivalries with several SEC schools. Auburn’s “Wreck Tech pajama walk” would return. GA Tech is mentioned in Alabama’s fight song.
(2) Money #1
GA Tech is on TV a lot. Every year they play several Thursday night games as well as multiple evening games–all televised. There’s a reason for that: Tech sits right in the middle of one of the biggest media markets in the country. Obviously, those games draw good ratings, or they wouldn’t be televised. For all the talk of the SEC dominating the Atanta TV market, the revenue from those televised Tech games goes to the ACC.
The SEC already has hard numbers of about what the Tech games would bring if they joined the SEC. Adding Tech would drive the ACC out of the Atlanta market, leaving it truely to the SEC.
(3) Money #2
GA Tech to the Big 10? Sounds silly at first, but remember when Tech was still an independent it played a national schedule that included several of the current Big 10 teams, so there is a history. Plus Tech is exactly the kind of “high academics” school the Big 10 says they want to add.
Does the SEC want to leave the door open for the Big 10 to get a foothold in their biggest media market? Having the ACC draw away viewers is bad enough, but the Big 10? Adding Tech to the SEC would be a preemptive move to keep the Big 10 from encroaching on SEC territory.
(4) It benefits UGA
How? UGA has to play a grinding SEC schedule, then top it off with a game against Tech. Bringing Tech into the SEC makes scheduling easier for UGA. Tech would just be another conference game, freeing up a non-conference game for an easier opponent or a highlight game.
(5) Academics
Tech would bring the general academics of the conference. The directors of various athletic departments probably don’t care, but I gurantee every school’s president does. Try to bring in a low academic school like West Virginia and I gurantee every school president will balk.
(6) Basketball
Yea, I know this is about football, but the fact is Tech would increase the quality of SEC basketball, and they are excellent in several other sports as well.
(7) Tech football is good, but not great
SEC football is already a grinder. Tech would be competitive in the SEC, but not dominant.
Bottom line: GA Tech is a proven TV money maker, and it would close to door to both the ACC and Big 10 encroaching on SEC territory.
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
2:58 pm
harold, OU would be at the top of the list of the SEC, except that OU leadership doesn’t seem interested, probably because they see the PAC# as an easier path to the BCS Championship. And the SEC would probably take OSU, if (and only if) it’s a package deal. Agreed that the SEC is a more natural fit for OU.
lawzoo
September 7th, 2011
2:58 pm
Tech in the S.E.C.? Nobody who down-sized their stadium(sic) to make it seat less need apply.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
2:59 pm
There would be so many problems with Notre Dame and the SEC it is a non-starter. Number 1, they see the south as inferior. I attended a Tech-Notre Dame game several years ago, courtesy of the president of the NYC Notre Dame Alumni Club, and he told me so. Number 2, they have their own national network. Number 3 is the obvious cultural difference apart from the inferiority thing. Number 4 is that they cannot be persuaded to do anything that they didn’t come up with themselves.
James
September 7th, 2011
2:59 pm
The ACC schools are going to band together due to the academic pedigree they share. I have heard many a ACC president say that they school will not leave the Atlantic Coast Conference and be caught dead in another less academic prowess conference. The new monikers I am hearing are the Atlantic Coast Conference will be the BCS Ivy. Still BCS, but Ivy. THey are bound academically by their pedigree.
Boston College
Clemson
Connecticut
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Maryland
Miami
North Carolina
NC State
Pitt
Rutgers
Syracuse
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
3:02 pm
Forest Foxx – Oklahoma also sees participation in the largest media payout of any current conference, which has a clause to renegotiate the payout whenever the PAC-12 adds members, plus participation in the PAC-12 network (conference owned) that will televise every football, basketball and virtually every other sporting even in the PAC-12.
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
3:03 pm
FSU is a non-starter. It would be blocked by Alabama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia due to recruiting and possibly South Carolina and Kentucky, if the “gentleman’s agreement” holds. It is said that Vandy threatened to block A&M, so they might jump on the pile too.
The Truth
September 7th, 2011
3:04 pm
Please people, stop with the GaTech, Clemson, FSU. Expansion is about one thing, TV revenue. Those 3 schools do NOTHING to enhance the TV market for the SEC. GT can’t fill a 50,000 seat stadium, Clemson’s TV market is Anderson, whoop, and Fla delivers that state’s market plus FSU had their chance and chose the easier route the ACC.
SEC expansion to 16 should involve adding A&M and Missouri in the West, in the East the choices seem to be Maryland and either UNC, VaTech, NC State, WVU or Rutgers. Each offers an expanded TV market share which translates into many $$$$. This isn’t about who you want to play, it’s about who brings in eyeballs and dollars. Like it or not, that’s the way it is.
Don’t leave out the other sports in this equation. The SEC is a strong basketball conference, the nation’s best collegiate baseball conference, a premier track, swimming, golf and tennis conference and perhaps the best overall women’s conference in the nation. Which of the many potential members can enhance those programs?
For those who dismiss Vandy, be reminded Vandy is an excellent basketball and baseball school, and strong in other men’s sports as well as in all women’s sports. This is about more than simply football. The TV contracts cover broadcast of other sports.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
3:05 pm
James – That pretty much nails it.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
September 7th, 2011
3:06 pm
Yes would drop Memphis for Ok State and tweek a couple of teams. Definetely a fantasy move for sure but would be interesting. Would make the week before the Super Bowl more interesting for sure.
B. Bob Alula
September 7th, 2011
3:06 pm
Coming soon to a blog near you.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
September 7th, 2011
3:07 pm
Delbert-
Drop Memphis for Ok. State. Tweek a couple of divisions, but it would make th eweek before the Super Bowl more interesting. Definetly a fantasy though!
Lowcountry Bulldawg
September 7th, 2011
3:08 pm
hello——–?
Memphis for Ok. State. omitted them for sure..
Conferencepocalypse not yet? | Iowa Highway Ends (etc.)
September 7th, 2011
3:09 pm
[...] for the Big East situation it MIGHT still work out if the SEC goes after West Virginia as Team #14, reopening a space. (The other Big Integer, meanwhile, is sitting back and counting its [...]
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
3:09 pm
The Truth, GT can’t fill a 55k stadium unless it’s playing a rival. We left most our rivalries in the SEC. Put us in the East and watch us need a bigger stadium in less than three years – even if we’re losing games! We’re old rivals with the whole East and half the West! There’s your revenue.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
3:10 pm
Forest Foxx – One thing to keep in mind is that only 9 “yes” votes are needed to add a member. The first four you mentioned would be sufficient to block, but the recruiting angle is iffy. It looks like FSU is going to get pretty much whoever they need now, under Jimbo.
Forest Foxx
September 7th, 2011
3:11 pm
Delbert D., good point, though SEC will be renegotiating their contract with change in membership, which might exceed that of the PAC#. Not sure about the particulars of conference networks, PAC# might have an advantage there, if so the SEC should get on it.
ormewood
September 7th, 2011
3:14 pm
If the SEC is interested in adding ‘brands,’ and going into new markets then the prospective list consists of VaTech, UVA, UNC, and even Duke. Second tier would include Maryland, NC State, WVU, Missouri.
Alphare
September 7th, 2011
3:14 pm
Mark, I’ve posted a few times suggesting a 15-team conference with 3 5-team divisions. The playoff will be 3 champs plus a wild card team to make it interesting.
But that way, the playoff will be a 2-game affair rather than today’s SEC champ game. I am not sure the 2-game playoff is allowed by the NCAA rules.
mdog
September 7th, 2011
3:14 pm
East Carolina…ACC back yard, a sleeping giant with excellent facilities, huge fan base and takes the TV market all the way to DC
Matt the Brave
September 7th, 2011
3:16 pm
SMU (if it were 1984). Clemson (if it were 1982).
For real, it’ll be WV. However, I feel if they join, they should be forced to sing John Denver songs before every game.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
3:18 pm
PCJ – Assuming that Tech is not going to the SEC (the Bradley Postulate), The way to fill that stadium is to either play Notre Dame 10 times a year or join the Big Ten. Now *that* is over the top.
ormewood
September 7th, 2011
3:19 pm
East Carolina? Really? Why not add Tulsa while we’re at it?
JM
September 7th, 2011
3:20 pm
West Virginia’s fans would be a natural fit for the SEC.
Cluett Peabody
September 7th, 2011
3:20 pm
dilbert d. – I was joking about n.d. and the academies – the better solutions (if i am king) is to reinforce the existing tv markets in the south excluding miami as they have a terrible following and unless they are playing a markee game and ranked very high don’t draw folks to the games nor tv’s. honestly i don’t know why espn loves them so much. again, if i am king of the sec, i get gt, fsu, clemson, and at least one n.c. school, v.t. maybe even uva to completely sew up the southern/southeastern markets. heck maybe the acc and sec need to look to a merger of some sort – hell call it the southern athletic conference (SAC) just don’t include miami and of course bc is out due to proximity. How does that sound?
GTBob
September 7th, 2011
3:22 pm
As a Tech fan I would rather have a nearly full stadium with mostly Tech fans then have a full stadium that mostly other teams fans. The boost in attendance from joining the SEC wouldn’t exactly be a good thing.
Cluett Peabody
September 7th, 2011
3:23 pm
The truth – you are wrong abot the tv market thing.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
3:24 pm
King Peabody presents an intriguing scenario. The Southenr mega-merger. Of course, the SEC needs a reason and the ACC wouldn’t dream of it unless TV rights were to be negotiated together and the conference would include all the Tobacco Road schools.
wvu
September 7th, 2011
3:24 pm
As a Mountaineer fan, I’m happy with the BIG EAST. If we go to the SEC, we’ll be taking a big hit with our basketball competition. I love the BIG EAST in basketball and the tournament at Madison Square Garden is the BEST. I also don’t want to give up the backyard brawl with Pitt – I love beating Pitt. Yeah, I liked when we beat GA a few years back as it was great watching the Dawg fans cry and it was fun watching WVU beat Auburn in Morgantown as all the Mountaineer fans were mocking the Auburn folks with “SEC chants”. Oh, was nice beath Miss. State a few times recently to say “SEC who”. AND, watch out for a night game in Morgantown in a few weeks as LSU comes to town – Anyway, I digress, it’s nice as the so called underdog beathing up on the so call powerhouses of the SEC. In reality, I know the Mountaineers can hang with all the SEC teams but it is nice to take em down when the so called expects so “nay”. So, the South will Rise again ain’t gonna happen and I hope the Mountaineers stay North and enjoy more football and basketball success. Let’s GOOOO MOUNTAINEERS…