Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard
Georgia didn't fare so well in the Dome against West Virginia, either. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
There’s standard-issue velocity (think Jair Jurrjens), and then there’s college football velocity (think Craig Kimbrel). It was barely a month ago that Texas A&M began making noises about leaving the Big 12, and those noises have become all but a roaring reality. A&M has signaled its intent to leave, and the SEC has offered to provide a new home. All that’s left is for somebody to persuade Baylor — and perhaps other spurned Big 12 schools — not to sue.
The apparent threat of legal action delayed what was to be A&M’s grand announcement Wednesday, but the move figures to happen soon enough. And why would Baylor care what A&M does? Because the Aggies’ leaving could lead to Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State bolting to the Pac-12, and by the time the exodus concludes the Big 12 might be reduced to three months of Baylor playing Iowa State. (Which apparently is also reserving its right to sue.)
Litigation, or the threat thereof, aside, the greater issue remains: Where does the SEC turn after it absorbs A&M?
The original thought was that the SEC could add a 14th team to offer geographical balance and call it a day. But momentum — and here we note again that momentum is a mighty wind — now suggests the SEC won’t stop at 14. The growing possibility that the Pac-12 will pick the plums from what’s left of the Big 12 could force to the SEC to go to 16 teams, or even 15.
And how, you’re asking, might a 15-team conference work? Well, there could be three five-team divisions. And how would three division winners fit into one conference title game? Only the best two would qualify. And how might the best two be determined? Good question. Conference record? Overall record? BCS rankings? Recruiting rankings?
For simplicity’s sake, an even number makes greater sense. So who might be the SEC’s 14th (or 15th and 16th) teams? Glad you asked.
Missouri: Heavy rumors link the Big 12 Tigers to the SEC, although it’s not entirely clear why. The Tigers have historically been better at basketball, and their recent run of football success might not stand the strain of the SEC West. Adding Missouri would broaden the TV base into St. Louis and Kansas City, but a countervailing theory holds that Mizzou sees itself as a better fit in the Big Ten. Chance it lands in the SEC: 50 percent.
West Virginia: Another heavily rumored name. If the intent is to stop at 14 teams, the Mountaineers would make more geographic sense than Missouri. They’d fit in the East, and they’d also serve up a slice of the Eastern Seaboard TV market. And this is a school that takes football seriously. (Witness the burning couches.) Of the teams on the SEC’s draft board, West Virginia would figure to be the easiest to convince. Chance it lands in the SEC: 65 percent.
Virginia Tech: An even more attractive candidate than West Virginia. The Hokies would offer penetration into the Washington, D.C., market, and they play BCS-level (meaning SEC-level) football. Still unclear is whether Virginia Tech, which lobbied hard to get into the ACC alongside Virginia only eight years ago, would split so soon. Chance it lands in the SEC: 37.5 percent.
Oklahoma: The Sooners are the greatest prize out there, but they’re believed to looking first toward the Pac-12. Then again, the SEC did approach Oklahoma last summer, and the Sooners are nothing if not pragmatic. The school’s inclination to trample on tradition — coach Bob Stoops has said super-conferences are the way of the future and that if the annual Texas-OU game gets lost for the sake of progress, so be it — could lead it southward. Chance it lands in the SEC: 30 percent.
North Carolina/N.C. State/Maryland: Any one of these would offer something approximating Virginia Tech, except that all have deeper roots in the ACC and none is as good at football. It’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels leaving the conference they and Duke control, basketball-wise; it’s less hard to picture Maryland and State wanting to get away from Carolina and Duke. Chance of landing in the SEC: 30 percent for Maryland; 20 percent for N.C. State; 5 percent for Carolina.
Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Louisville: Any of these might be welcome under ordinary circumstances, but it’s believed the SEC won’t add teams in states where it has already has a foothold. That said, desperate times could call for desperate measures. Two months ago, would anyone have thought Texas A&M would be SEC-bound in September 2011? Chance of landing in the SEC: 10 percent for Florida State, Clemson and Louisville; 5 percent for Georgia Tech and Miami.
And there’s your scorecard, folks — as of today. A week from now, Boise State might well have emerged as the hottest name on the SEC’s wish list. Although, owing to recent events, the school in Athens might file suit to bar the Broncos.
By Mark Bradley
Photos: Which team do YOU think would be a good fit for the SEC? Vote in our poll.
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
416 comments Add your comment
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
1:21 pm
Ole Miss and Miss St would love to have West Virginia join the conference. WVa would be the new standard bearer as the lowest ranked school in the SEC academically (#176 USN&WR.)
Sean
September 7th, 2011
1:22 pm
It’s going to be Virginia Tech. It adds the most value thanks to DC. West Virginia doesn’t really add anything.
Make It Happen
September 7th, 2011
1:27 pm
I say Ga Tech, Clemson, and FSU. It would increase the TV market, especially in the ATL, strengthen recruiting conference wide – particulary in Ga, SC, and FL, and renew some old rivalries (UGA-Clemson, GaTech-Alabam, etc, etc).
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
1:29 pm
Missouri should be next. They border 3 SEC states, and their boys fought the Union in the Civil War. West Virginia seceded from their state to avoid the fight. Quantrill’s Raiders invaded the Union encampment in Lawrence, Kansas with the order to above all, burn down the new school the Union had built there. The southern leaders wanted to preserve the necessary ignorance of their subjects.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
1:30 pm
Do you people go to DC? There are NOT may CFB fans there. Barely anyone there with money is FROM the area, so, no, they don’t care about VT or Maryland really compared to the Redskins. I go there monthly and the college gear I see most is as follows in this order: Georgetown, GWU (the two schools in the District), Virginia, and Georgia Tech. They sell VT and Terps gear in the stores, but people around town have the things I listed on. It’s that way every time.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
1:32 pm
* Sorry I forgot that before UVA and GT I should mention I see a ton of Navy and Army athletic logos.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
1:33 pm
Point is that DC is not an SEC town and probably won’t care if they get a major CFB team nearby. Their talk radio and TV hype is all Redskins.
BFD
September 7th, 2011
1:33 pm
Real insightful article. Way to stick you neck out.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
1:34 pm
PCJ – I worked in Rockville, MD and lived in Gaithersburg awhile back. The only college football talk I heard was Virginia and Maryland.
Beltway Traveler
September 7th, 2011
1:36 pm
As someone who works in and around the DC Metro area VA TECH is by far the most displayed college team around no one else even close, agreed it is a Redskin town by VA TECH is very well represented.
VT adds the most to the SEC, however they should be careful what you wish for as VT would not be able to dominate the way they have in the ACC.
The Tenn. vs VT match-up would be epic expect record crowds.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
1:38 pm
Well, Army and Navy, yeah. Different kind of people and extremely loyal.
ECU
September 7th, 2011
1:40 pm
http://www.ecu.edu/undaunted/
cajdawg
September 7th, 2011
1:40 pm
I would be shocked if WVU were the 14th school.
The school presidents are not sitting around talking about who is good in football and do we want them or them or them…
The conversation revolves the following issues (list in order of importance):
1)What potential schools could enhance revenue with the reopening of the TV contracts?
2)What schools are likely to consider an offer?
3)Who would the SEC preferred to be associated with? WV flunks this question. The SEC has enough ‘tard schools with Arkansas, Ole Miss and Miss. State. Interestingly enough, Alabama and Auburn are generally well regarded, ranked in 60’s or 70’s in the US News National rankings, but their non-student-alumni fanbases create the impression that they are ‘tard schools. The SEC does not need another lousy academic school like WVU.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
1:44 pm
All I’m sayin’ is I really don’t think VT to the SEC would suddenly mobilize the fans of DC to be all about a sport they really don’t spend any money on already.
Of course my home city being Atlanta, and my Alma Mater being GT, I’d posit that you could absolutely count on the following: put GT back in the SEC and by the end of the first season you would have to expand Bobby Dodd stadium. GT would have bandwagon fans again like it hasn’t since the 60’s. Atlanta is a city in which people would pay big bucks to come see Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, SC, and yes UGA play on Grant Field. GT maybe would take ~5 years to get competitive in the East, but it would be a solid member again for sure.
Mike
September 7th, 2011
1:45 pm
I dont believe the SEC will ever expand to 16 teams. Ask yourself why? Honestly, why would they need to? Texas A&M brings a huge Texas market…both TV and recruiting. That is the only reason the SEC is expanding with them and that’s the prize of this expansion. They only need a 14th team to balance things out, and they dont want one from a state they already represent. IMO WVU is the likely target. That will keep both divisions intact. They could go to a 9 game conference schedule and keep the current rotations and rivalries. Here is the order (with rivals listed across from each other):
East West
Georgia Auburn
Florida LSU
Tennessee Alabama
South Carolina Arkansas
Kentucky Miss St.
Vandy Ole Miss
WVU or Va Tech or Maryland Texas A&M
Tom
September 7th, 2011
1:46 pm
Why not add a school with academic excellence. Oh, sorry, we’re talking about the SEC.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
1:48 pm
PCJ – I spent almost as much time at Muldoon’s in Gaithersburg as I did at work and my apartment. A lot of the conversation around the peanut barrel was about whether or not little Johnny and Sally would get accepted to UVA or have to go to Maryland. I didn’t hang with the Georgetown types.
GTBob
September 7th, 2011
1:49 pm
I lived in DC for a while and I agree with PerimeterCenterJacket. It’s a pro football city. There are more Redskins, and even Steelers fans there then any of the nearby colleges, including VT. I really wouldn’t put VT above UVA or Maryland as far as popularity goes. They are all about equal. If they just want some footprint in the market then any of those teams would be fine. None of them are going to bring fans to opposing SEC stadiums or broaden SEC appeal anywhere though.
Add 1, drop another
September 7th, 2011
1:50 pm
Couldnt we just add A & M and drop Vandy. That should even things out. Seriously, I think we need a school that represents tradition and excels at a variety of sports. I like Clemson but I understand the TV situation. Va Tech sounds good. They have no real loyalty to the ACC and they figure into some pretty decent basketball games…not to mention their football team’s success. I really like West VA based on history. Either would be nice and make for some intriguing Fall matchups.
Gator Mike
September 7th, 2011
1:50 pm
Mark, very good article on this situation. Some may disagree with me, but I think that the presidents of the current SEC universities may also look at the academic prowess of the candidates in addition to the athlestic side. If so, I do not believe that West Virginia will pass the litmus test on the academic issue. Also, there is a lot of rumbling in Viginia that VT and UVA are locked together which does not bode well for VT entering the SEC. UVA is a good school, but their football program is mediocre at best.
Whatever happens, it will be interesting.
Supersize that order, mutt
September 7th, 2011
1:51 pm
Mark, when these stories and rumors first started floating (or re-floating) around a month ago, several posters from the state of Virginia pointed out that VT had no hold on the DC market. They are too far away from DC (in the middle of nowhere, in fact), and that there are other schools closer to DC that hold more interest in that area.
Mike
September 7th, 2011
1:52 pm
@PCJ – while Tech has old rivalries that would be renewed, would UGA allow it? That’s the issue with Fla St and Clemson as well. Florida and South Carolina are not likely to ratify that. Schools that currently enjoy exclusive SEC footprints in their state will want it to stay that way.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
1:52 pm
Well, Delbert, to your point I’m not sure UVA to the SEC would be half bad. I know they and VT might be tied together now, but UVA is a big state (well, going private) school. It’s been good in football before (90’s). And Maryland’s not a terrible choice, but the place has little identity. I’m a fan of CU, GT and FSU going all together. They’re the 3 ACC schools nestled in SEC states. I think they’d make the conference more complete and competitive.
AlT
September 7th, 2011
1:52 pm
Can’t believe you all talking about TV markets. It’s not about TV markets. It’s about TV ratings. For example, IMO Swofford has egg on his face for bringing in BC because of the Boston market. A lot of good that did, they can barely fill a 40K stadium every week, much less anybody watch them on TV from week to week. That pick is a disaster. It doesn’t matter what market you bring if you don’t have many fans in that market.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
1:56 pm
Mike, I understand UGA, UF and SC might not like it, but I also know that of the ACC team who aren’t VT (who seems married to UVA now after the big cryfest to get into the ACC) the best brands and regional rivalries in football (rivalries bring the fans who build the culture and cashflow) live at FSU, Clemson and GT in that order. All three have good basketball. And CU and GT add academics while FSU adds size (GT and CU are each at around 20k total enrollment).
Mike
September 7th, 2011
1:57 pm
Unlike other conferences, the SEC doesnt need to expand for competition’s sake, so 16 is out. Its all about TV, which Texas A&M brings as would Missouri or Va Tech. They just need a 14th and they would be fine. From what I understand, the only one throwing around 16 is the PAC 12 commissioner. Even then, he’s trying to convince his institutions not to pass on OU and Texas. They need the stability those would bring. The Big 10 is fine as is, but might want to grab Syracuse and Missouri…again for TV. None of the institutions really want 16 team conferences.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
1:57 pm
Mike – You are right, a 14-team conference would be a lot easier to schedule, and to maintain somewhat more frequent games with the non-rivals in the other division. The only thing about the number 14 is that it doesn’t provide for a natural playoff set, e.g., 16, 32, 64. The 4 x 16 conferences model works great, except for the schools that aren’t in those conferences. If you get more than 4 conferences, it would be very difficult to fit the playoffs (which I think are the inevitable result or this) into the time schedule of 1st 2 weeks in December, and the CG in the 2nd week in January.
Supersize that order, mutt
September 7th, 2011
1:58 pm
Mike if UGA would not allow Tech back in, then the question is WHY? What is it about Tech that threatens them? Something obviously “scares” UGA about having Tech back in the SEC, in spite of all the demeaning comments that dawg fans post on these blogs. What real reason did Dooley have for voting “no” (or, as some claim, abstaining, which was essentially a no vote) the last time Tech tried to re-enter?
Mike
September 7th, 2011
2:00 pm
@PCJ – I agree in general, but I think those three (Tech, Clemson, and FSU) would be the last ditch backup plans because of current member objections. THey might even go after Louisville before them since UK might be less inclined to get their feathers ruffled. Again the 14th isnt about competition, just balancing the scales. 16 isnt happening. I just dont see why the SEC would want that.
Mike
September 7th, 2011
2:03 pm
@Supersize – its all about recruiting. UGA enjoys an advantage of being the only SEC school in GA. Granted Paul Johnson’s offense isnt one that top recruits gravitate to, but Groh’s defense is every bit as attractive as Grantham’s for recruits. THey are almost identical. Its the same objection UF would have to FSU or South Carolina to Clemson.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
2:03 pm
Mike, I see your multiple points about balance. I guess my argument is that the current twelve make so much money and earn the hearts of their fans because of rivalries. All SEC games are rivalries pretty much. FSU GT and CU only fuel that. Hate is love in the SEC when you’re talking money and fan revenue.
Buckeye
September 7th, 2011
2:04 pm
Go ahead. Drop Vandy and see your academic and grad rates plummet.
ramblingbuzz
September 7th, 2011
2:08 pm
Mark,
So ’splain to me what the SEC presidents are looking for when they admit new member schools. Is it money (TV revenue), prestige, preventing in-state conference rival, academics (doubtful), similar institutional goals? I just don’t get the appeal of T A&M other than opening up the Texas TV market to the SEC. Why does the SEC want A&M?
reebok
September 7th, 2011
2:08 pm
i actually agree with lowcountry bulldog…create a 24-team southern superconference with 4 divisions of 6 teams, play 2 semifinal games among the division winners (on one day, in the gerogia dome) and then a championship game.
SEC WEST
September 7th, 2011
2:09 pm
Seems the UGA folks want Missouri because that would move Auburn to the East whom UGA already plays each season thus easing the schedule. Adding WVU to the East puts another quality mouth at the table leaving UGA where? The bread line with Vandy and Kentucky???
robodawg
September 7th, 2011
2:11 pm
The biggest risk here is how to preserve SEC traditional rivalries and incorporate new teams. The Big 12’s great failure was breaking up the Husker-Sooner rivalry. Don’t ruin a great thing.
There are plenty of teams in Texas and middle America to create a super conference of quality athletic programs. Bolting to the SEC or the PAC 12/14/16 makes no sense. But let the other conferences go nutso if they want to, the SEC really doesn’t need them. Our only “market” competitor is the ACC, and they won’t usurp us any time soon.
SEC WEST
September 7th, 2011
2:11 pm
reebok – The NCAA only allows 12 plus championship game. Of course if we disown the NCAA and create our own rules organization then that would be possible.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
2:14 pm
I have to believe TAMU looked good because of size, merchandising popularity (branding, but also indicator of fans who’ll go to away games, watch on TV, etc.), basketball, and, yes, academics.
So I’d say the new kid(s) will have to bring two or more of those things to the table.
Glenn
September 7th, 2011
2:17 pm
@ Mike
I don’t think they would take WVU to just ” balance things ” . At that point it would be smarter to move Auburn to the east a keep their rivalry game with Alabama , then put Mizzou and A&M in the SEC west .
Thanks for filling in on the UVA , Va Tech law about them in the same conference . Interesting stuff .
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
2:18 pm
By the way, the 2-per-state model isn’t terrible in a high-population state like Georgia. There’s more people in Fulton county then there are in the whole state of Mississippi (which supports two SEC programs on their fan support and monetary offerings.) You could split the people of the state between Tech and UGA and still have room for the rest of the SEC East to have fans here.
ramblingbuzz
September 7th, 2011
2:18 pm
I hope GT does not go to the Big 10. I don’t even know who plays in the Big 10. If it’s not ACC or SEC football, I don’t watch or follow it.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
2:21 pm
* just looked up stats, replace “Fulton County” with Fulton and Dekalb counties.
If you use all of Atlanta, you have two Mississippi’s, though.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
2:24 pm
ramblingbuzz, you don’t wanna know…it’s something called a Buckeye and then a lot of snow and cornfields….I think there’s a Purdue in there somewhere, but I’ve heard it might not actually exist…
robodawg
September 7th, 2011
2:24 pm
If A&M comes in, the other school should be NC State. It satisfies the d@mn TV market requirements. (Just look at a map of states in the SEC; expanding into North Carolina makes by far the most sense.) But it’s also a school with solid football inclinations and decent academics. And it’s actually in the southeast!
Keep the new SEC at 14 so we still play Florida, Auburn and Tech EVERY year.
Delbert D.
September 7th, 2011
2:27 pm
SEC WEST – “The NCAA only allows 12 plus championship game. Of course if we disown the NCAA and create our own rules organization then that would be possible.”
No need to do that. Georgia Southern played 15 games last year. The Div.1 schools can get a playoff without seceding from the NCAA. The school presidents simply have to want it. The payola by the BCS needs to be brought to a screeching halt.
Let's Go
September 7th, 2011
2:27 pm
The ACC will stand pat and increase their teams to 16 from the Big East while the SEC will take A&M, Mizzu, TCU, and maybe Notre Dame. The ACC will take WVa, SFla, Pitt, and Rudgers. The ACC won’t really be a football powerhouse but this will make them a much better basketball conference.
Salty
September 7th, 2011
2:30 pm
Sheesh…is SEC going to soon stand for SouthEast of Canada?
lawzoo
September 7th, 2011
2:31 pm
Got news for you Carolina is already in and they’re going to kick Ga.’s
butts Saturday. See Mark they’re called the Carolina Gamecocks !
The Ghost of Wally Butts
September 7th, 2011
2:32 pm
Hell, I am just hoping that our Dawgs are allowed to stay in the SEC, now that we are clearly on the level of Kentucky and Vandy. If they start cutting weak teams, it’s time for us to get nervous in Athens.
Having said that, I guess it’s time for our ‘playas’ to begin tweeting insults to the A & M coaching staff (provided they can spare the time away from braiding their long hair), as A & M is now headed our way.
Yep.
PerimeterCenterJacket
September 7th, 2011
2:32 pm
Let’s Go, but to win in the money wars, a conference has to have top-tier branding. Football fuels those brands to a much higher degree than does basketball. Therefore the Big East and ACC have been trying to make progress in football. It’s necessary. Look at the Big Ten. Great football teams at the top of the conference, and great basketball brands built from the brands of those football teams. Pac 12 works the same way. SEC is just now building basketball, but it’s filthy rich from football. ACC needs to keep the pressure on it’s AA’s to build football programs that win big games.