Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard
Georgia didn't fare so well in the Dome against West Virginia, either. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
There’s standard-issue velocity (think Jair Jurrjens), and then there’s college football velocity (think Craig Kimbrel). It was barely a month ago that Texas A&M began making noises about leaving the Big 12, and those noises have become all but a roaring reality. A&M has signaled its intent to leave, and the SEC has offered to provide a new home. All that’s left is for somebody to persuade Baylor — and perhaps other spurned Big 12 schools — not to sue.
The apparent threat of legal action delayed what was to be A&M’s grand announcement Wednesday, but the move figures to happen soon enough. And why would Baylor care what A&M does? Because the Aggies’ leaving could lead to Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State bolting to the Pac-12, and by the time the exodus concludes the Big 12 might be reduced to three months of Baylor playing Iowa State. (Which apparently is also reserving its right to sue.)
Litigation, or the threat thereof, aside, the greater issue remains: Where does the SEC turn after it absorbs A&M?
The original thought was that the SEC could add a 14th team to offer geographical balance and call it a day. But momentum — and here we note again that momentum is a mighty wind — now suggests the SEC won’t stop at 14. The growing possibility that the Pac-12 will pick the plums from what’s left of the Big 12 could force to the SEC to go to 16 teams, or even 15.
And how, you’re asking, might a 15-team conference work? Well, there could be three five-team divisions. And how would three division winners fit into one conference title game? Only the best two would qualify. And how might the best two be determined? Good question. Conference record? Overall record? BCS rankings? Recruiting rankings?
For simplicity’s sake, an even number makes greater sense. So who might be the SEC’s 14th (or 15th and 16th) teams? Glad you asked.
Missouri: Heavy rumors link the Big 12 Tigers to the SEC, although it’s not entirely clear why. The Tigers have historically been better at basketball, and their recent run of football success might not stand the strain of the SEC West. Adding Missouri would broaden the TV base into St. Louis and Kansas City, but a countervailing theory holds that Mizzou sees itself as a better fit in the Big Ten. Chance it lands in the SEC: 50 percent.
West Virginia: Another heavily rumored name. If the intent is to stop at 14 teams, the Mountaineers would make more geographic sense than Missouri. They’d fit in the East, and they’d also serve up a slice of the Eastern Seaboard TV market. And this is a school that takes football seriously. (Witness the burning couches.) Of the teams on the SEC’s draft board, West Virginia would figure to be the easiest to convince. Chance it lands in the SEC: 65 percent.
Virginia Tech: An even more attractive candidate than West Virginia. The Hokies would offer penetration into the Washington, D.C., market, and they play BCS-level (meaning SEC-level) football. Still unclear is whether Virginia Tech, which lobbied hard to get into the ACC alongside Virginia only eight years ago, would split so soon. Chance it lands in the SEC: 37.5 percent.
Oklahoma: The Sooners are the greatest prize out there, but they’re believed to looking first toward the Pac-12. Then again, the SEC did approach Oklahoma last summer, and the Sooners are nothing if not pragmatic. The school’s inclination to trample on tradition — coach Bob Stoops has said super-conferences are the way of the future and that if the annual Texas-OU game gets lost for the sake of progress, so be it — could lead it southward. Chance it lands in the SEC: 30 percent.
North Carolina/N.C. State/Maryland: Any one of these would offer something approximating Virginia Tech, except that all have deeper roots in the ACC and none is as good at football. It’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels leaving the conference they and Duke control, basketball-wise; it’s less hard to picture Maryland and State wanting to get away from Carolina and Duke. Chance of landing in the SEC: 30 percent for Maryland; 20 percent for N.C. State; 5 percent for Carolina.
Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Louisville: Any of these might be welcome under ordinary circumstances, but it’s believed the SEC won’t add teams in states where it has already has a foothold. That said, desperate times could call for desperate measures. Two months ago, would anyone have thought Texas A&M would be SEC-bound in September 2011? Chance of landing in the SEC: 10 percent for Florida State, Clemson and Louisville; 5 percent for Georgia Tech and Miami.
And there’s your scorecard, folks — as of today. A week from now, Boise State might well have emerged as the hottest name on the SEC’s wish list. Although, owing to recent events, the school in Athens might file suit to bar the Broncos.
By Mark Bradley
Photos: Which team do YOU think would be a good fit for the SEC? Vote in our poll.
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
416 comments Add your comment
Whiskey Clear
September 7th, 2011
12:14 pm
SEC will never get Virginia Tech. It was recently made a state law that Virginia and Virginia Tech must be joined in the same conference. Good luck convincing Virginia to come to the SEC. Can you imagine Thomas Jefferson traveling to play an away game in Starkville? Haha, I don’t think so.
Tide Rising
September 7th, 2011
12:15 pm
Blazerdawg,
We’re not going to be kicking out teams like S. Carolina and Ark. That is not in play. When you start talking about kicking out teams to then re-add entirely new teams then you’ve got so many scenarios that its impossible to keep up with. Plus as mark pointed out this is all about tv markets and so why then would you kick out those 2 schools and lose an entire tv market?- especially in the case of the state of Ark. Booting any current members and especially these 2 makes no sense.
wrek
September 7th, 2011
12:16 pm
VPI can’t get away from UVA. OU is going pac-10. Mizzou is going Big 10. GT is going Big 10.
SEC will end up with aTm, Mizzou, Clemson, and FSU. It only takes 9 votes to pass an item, the 9 schools that are not U(sic)GA, UF, USCe will vote for FSU and Clem.
wrek
September 7th, 2011
12:17 pm
Edit, SEC will get aTm, WVA, Clem, FSU. Not Mizzou.
MatthewH
September 7th, 2011
12:18 pm
SEC Fact Finder-I’d like to see those numbers. When I lived in DC in the 90’s, it was such a transient town that all colleges were represented. At that time it seemed UVA was more represented than VT. I also would echo what DC resident says-”other than the alums, no one in metro DC cares about VT”
wrek
September 7th, 2011
12:18 pm
Oh and the chance of any NC school in the SEC – zero. It’s obvious how little you know about anything ACC-related when you even put those guys on the list.
Tide Rising
September 7th, 2011
12:19 pm
GTBob,
Sorry. Should have said that the consensus looks like VT should come- not would come. They look like a logical fit but as you say if their AD says they won’t come then the whole point is mute.
LakeDawg
September 7th, 2011
12:20 pm
The SEC has already shown that geography doesn’t matter by inviting A@M. (Since when does Texas belong in the southeast) So geographical balance is irrelevent. I say go after Ohio State as the 14th team. If the SEC wants to go to 16 teams, they can get Notre Dame and Penn State. Lots of big TV markets with these picks. Go SEC!
swgaboy
September 7th, 2011
12:21 pm
wrek, a month ago I would’ve agreed with you on the chances of an NC school going to the SEC. But apparently there are at least 2 current NC schools that are ACC members that have some interest in doing just that.
Blazerdawg
September 7th, 2011
12:22 pm
Tide – never predicted the expulsion, just expressing a wish – I know we are stuck with SC & Ark.
Innocent Bystander
September 7th, 2011
12:23 pm
VT and UVA are politically tied. VT isn’t going anywhere without UVA, and I highly doubt the SEC wants the Cavs.
MatthewH
September 7th, 2011
12:23 pm
DC Resident points out that Blacksburg is 250 miles from DC, As a point of comparison, Atlanta is 249 miles from Nashville, TN. Just an FYI.
dawginMemphis
September 7th, 2011
12:23 pm
The reason Tech probably won’t get in is because EVERYBODY recruits Atlanta, not just UGA. Auburn and Tennessee would probably be just as adamant in opposition, seeing as they rely heavily on the fertile Atlanta market.
Jacket Man
September 7th, 2011
12:24 pm
Virginia Tech can’t go without Virginia (State Legislature issue); I would think GA Tech won’t get an offer unless the SEC thinks the Big 10 is going to offer the Jackets and the SEC doesn’t want them to get a foothold into the region to improve recruiting. Florida will block FSU and Miami, South Carolina will block Clemson and UGA will block GA Tech. Texas goes to the PAC 12 (or whatever they call themselves) with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and either Kansas, Missouri, or Texas Tech.
The Big 10 looks to take Syracuse and Maryland, possibly GA Tech and Boston College or Missouri.
meh
September 7th, 2011
12:24 pm
we don’t need Mizzou. there’s too many tigers in the west already.
LakeDawg
September 7th, 2011
12:25 pm
The SEC could kick out Vandy Kentucky, SC, and Arkansas. Small TV markets. In their place they could add Oklahoma, Texas, Southern Cal, and for geographic balance UCLA. Then we all could really brag that the best football is in the south! Go SEC!
swgaboy
September 7th, 2011
12:27 pm
What I wonder about is who will make the next move? The Big East and ACC might have their sights set on one another. The SEC apparently wants potential member schools to disengage from their current conferences before voting on anything. Will the Big 10 have the same attitude? Or will they feel compelled to make the first strike into the ACC or Big East? I think MD, UVA, and GT would be great candidates for the Big 10 along with Missouri, Syracuse, and Pitt. I wonder if Big East-bound TCU might be a target for the SEC should Mizzou/VT not work out?
SEC Fact Finder
September 7th, 2011
12:28 pm
LakeDawg
September 7th, 2011
12:25 pm
The SEC could kick out Vandy Kentucky
Charter Members will never be “kicked out”.
Blazerdawg
September 7th, 2011
12:28 pm
UGA would not block Ga Tech. C’mon D Rad; get after it! Welcome back Jackets – bring it on in here for a big ol Dawg hug!
t.saunders
September 7th, 2011
12:28 pm
Enter your comments here
Animal Control
September 7th, 2011
12:29 pm
A “clean program” is the least that Richt has run! Half the team has the UGA lawyer on speed dial! Be careful how you define a “clean program” ESPECIALLY when takling about UGA. As for Miami- no one was suprised with that!
LakeDawg
September 7th, 2011
12:29 pm
SEC Fact Finder
Its called sarcasm.
MET
September 7th, 2011
12:30 pm
Matthew –
Distance from DC to Va Tech is not relevant. Va Tech by far has the largest alumni and fan base in the DC market. The majority of students who attend Va Tech come from the Northern Virginia suburbs of DC. Driving around the Beltway in DC you will see as many Hokies stickers on cars as you see Dawgs stickers on the Perimeter here.
Also VT will bring the Richmond and the Tidewater/Hampton Roads markets which together are pretty large too.
dawginMemphis
September 7th, 2011
12:30 pm
So, we know about the footprint and blackball argument from the current members of the SEC East…….. BUT, does adding all 3 of FSU, Clemson, and Tech somehow make it more fair. I feel like it does. Again, Alabama, Tennessee, and Mississippi all have two schools. Granted, Vandy isn’t much competition recruiting wise, but Tennessee is a barren state by SEC standards.
My vote would be to add those 3 to complement A&M and send Vandy or Tennessee to the West, depending on how the talent balance argument unfolds. Tennessee has more natural rivals in the west anyway. Before the ‘92 expansion they played Auburn and Ole Miss every year, in addition to the historic rivalry with Alabama.
t.saunders
September 7th, 2011
12:31 pm
VT alums are indded heavy in the D.C. area, but the D.C. area includes 5 million people who care less about VT, or much about college football period, check Marylands attendance figures…This is a Redskin area….Hard as it is for SEC fans to imagine college football here is second tier….
Johnny
September 7th, 2011
12:32 pm
Dawg 96
No way you put Aub and Alab in different divisions. That wouldn’t fly with the potential of them playing each other at seasons end and then playing again the next week in a sec champ game. Gotta have rivals in the same division OR play early in the season.
T3
September 7th, 2011
12:34 pm
I wonder if the B1G is considering these 4 teams:
1. GT
2. Maryland
3. VT
4. UVA
Chicago Richie
September 7th, 2011
12:37 pm
WVU does a better job of delivering the DC market. The school is only 200 miles from DC and has a huge alumni-base in our nation’s capitol. So much so, that AD Luck scheduled multiple neutral-site games in DC.
VT, on the other hand, is about 370 miles from DC and their alums don’t spend money. Blacksburg is not Fairfax.
Alabama | MrSEC.com
September 7th, 2011
12:42 pm
[...] A few quick notes concerning Baylor, Texas A&M and the SEC at this lunch hour:1. Chaos in college athletics is now here according to The Wall Street Journal.2. Orangebloods.com says the SEC wants all remaining Big 12 schools to sign waivers stating that they will not sue… and that’s not going to happen.3. Baylor’s poor attendance, poor record and poor facilities are forcing it to throw out legal threats.4. This writer for the International Business Times can’t figure out why more Big 12 schools aren’t threatening to sue.5. Mark Bradley of The AJC looks at who might be next on the SEC’s dance card. [...]
Mtn Dawg
September 7th, 2011
12:47 pm
NNNNOOOO!!!! 12 teams is plenty. But, if it happens, why not Clemson. Does it always have to be about TV coverage and markets? What the heck is wrong with good old fashion rivalry’s? Look at SC and Clemson. Great rivalry. It’s just gone all wrong. Decision making in the ivory tower considers the students, fans, and athletes on the surface only. It’s going to heck in a hand basket, and adding teams only dilutes what I consider to be near-saturation in terms of competition and fan base. Give it up Slive.
coach richt
September 7th, 2011
12:48 pm
We need about 8 more teams like Georgia Tech so I can have a winning season.
Elvis Presley
September 7th, 2011
12:51 pm
Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech.
Born2Buzz
September 7th, 2011
12:51 pm
Why is Vandy still in the SEC? Take on Texas A&M and just drop Vandy. The pretense that they compete with the other SEC teams in football is ridiculous.
Elvis Presley
September 7th, 2011
12:52 pm
Does Georgia Tech being a Charter Member of the SEC carry any weight Mark?
59bulldawg
September 7th, 2011
12:56 pm
Although VT probably has a larger market share of fans in the Virginia, DC, and Maryland viewership area, it seems to me that WV would potentially bring the same television market exposure as VT. No doubt WV’s viewership market share would increase if they were to become members of the SEC as the matchups would become much more interesting than those currently on their schedule. However both VT and WV are are big time football schools and I would happily take either. Why not bring both and add a second Texas team? That would expand the conference to 16 with 8 in each division. That would be a hell of a conference!
Elvis Presley
September 7th, 2011
12:58 pm
Vandy helps with the SEC image (Grades) and graduates provide jobs to former conference football players that couldn’t cut in the pros.
Mudcatjoe
September 7th, 2011
12:59 pm
Georgia Tech doesn’t want to step backwards in basketball, and the football competition is just so-so!
Vince Doodley
September 7th, 2011
1:03 pm
Lets get rid of Kentucky and go back to 12.
Bazooka Joe
September 7th, 2011
1:04 pm
Ga Tech doesn NOT deserve an invite. They were in the SEC many moons ago and bolted for independence. They made their choice, now they have to live with it. I dont care if they go to the Big 10 or wherever, just not the SEC, they dont deserve a second chance.
GTBob
September 7th, 2011
1:07 pm
You want to kick out Vandy, the only strong academic member of the conference and a school that made the NCAA basketball tournament and the College World Series this year? Football isn’t everything.
Mike
September 7th, 2011
1:08 pm
WVU!!! Screw the castrated turkeys.
Mike
September 7th, 2011
1:10 pm
If the big names say no, would the SEC look at any other of the Texas schools that are sort of being mentioned for the Big 12? Someone like Rice, SMU or Houston? Bring in one, move Auburn to the east and call it a day.
Red Stick (formerly Jumbeauxtiger)
September 7th, 2011
1:11 pm
I believe the SEC would love to have VT but I don’t see the Hokies joining the SEC. I believe the most viable possibility is Missouri, especially if Oklahoma leaves the Big 12.
I don’t see how the SEC has anything to gain by adding WV, a small market.
Clemson, Ga Tech, Miami and FSU won’t be joining the SEC either. They will be blocked by some of the current member schools.
Thus the logical 14th member is Missouri, unless OU expresses a desire to join.
buzzn
September 7th, 2011
1:14 pm
WVa? That just seems kinda funny. I guess technically they are a couple clicks south of the Mason-Dixon line. Looks like WVa is further north than all ACC schools except BC. Better hope your team doesn’t have to play up there in late November. Bring your snuggies if they do.
Well at least this opens things up for y’all to get Pitt next.
macrotech
September 7th, 2011
1:15 pm
I’m ALL for the super conference model….they could succeed from the BCS and create their own playoff system! Disparity no longer seems a concern, anyway! Anything that leads to playoffs is a step in the right direction and we could see some really interesting match ups down the road….let’s do it!
Who’s next on the SEC’s expansion list? Here’s a scorecard | WVU PressBox
September 7th, 2011
1:18 pm
[...] Article at: AJC Comments [0]Digg [...]
Mark
September 7th, 2011
1:18 pm
The one group of fans who travel well to away games are the player’s families. They get good seats for free and so they travel to support their kids. Super conferences will sharply curtail that activity. Try driving to College Station after work on Friday and getting back for work on Monday morning. Again, another example of not thinking of the impact on the players. Greedy administrators get more money to pay ever larger coaching salaries and build more elaborate palaces.
macrotech
September 7th, 2011
1:18 pm
Mtn. Dawg….I agree with your 12:47 post COMPLETELY with the exception of a 12 team conference! Conferences are going to grow or die…seems to be the mindset of the powers that be.
Beechurst
September 7th, 2011
1:20 pm
Virginia Tech: “An even more attractive candidate than West Virginia. The Hokies would offer penetration into the Washington, D.C., market, and they play BCS-level (meaning SEC-level) football.”
Ummm…hate to break it to you, but WVU is 2-0 in BCS games & Virginia Tech is 1-4. WVU finished in the Top 10 three straight years 2005-07 and has twice played for the national championship. WVU is also 28-21 all-time against the Hokies (counting their days as Gobblers, of course).
macrotech
September 7th, 2011
1:20 pm
Mark, I don’t disagree with you…in the end, it’s not about the players and the fans….it’s about the $. I’m not pleased with this, but it is what it is…sadly!