Of concern: The Braves’ playoff rotation is no longer a given
Jair Jurrjens after yielding one of three homers Tuesday. (AJC photo by Hyosub Shin)
The good news: The Braves will enter September not having to worry about making the playoffs. The less-good news: They’ll enter September with growing cause to worry over what might happen in the Division Series.
More to the point: Is Derek Lowe looking more and more like your Game 2 starter?
To recap: Jair Jurrjens hurt his knee and has been substandard — 33 baserunners in 18 1/3 innings, 11 earned runs — since exiting the disabled list, and Tommy Hanson is on the DL with a torn rotator cuff (but doesn’t need surgery). You’d have to figure Jurrjens will find himself over this next month, but what if he doesn’t?
Tim Hudson in Game 1: Any team could live with that. But the Lowe of 2011 hasn’t much resembled the Lowe of 2010. (Lest we forget, he was the Game 1 and Game 4 starter in last season’s NLDS.) His ERA in July was 5.86. His ERA in August — he’ll start tonight, so this is subject to change — is 5.18. Three of his past four starts have actually been good, but he’s 8-12 on the season with an ERA of 4.63.
By way of contrast, Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor both have lower ERAs than, er, Lowe. Both are rookies. Would Fredi Gonzalez choose Beachy and/or Minor over a 38-year-old who has made a dozen postseason starts?
September figures to be mostly for show standings-wise — the Braves trail the Phillies by 7 1/2 games but lead the Giants by 9 1/2 — but not pitching-wise. The Braves must see what’s left of their formerly formidable rotation. The ideal scenario, duh, would be to have Jurrjens, Hanson and Hudson work the division series against Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum/Randy Wolf, but it’s unclear who’ll be ready/able by Game 1.
By Mark Bradley
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140 comments Add your comment
Dirty Dawg
August 31st, 2011
11:59 am
They’ve got to get ‘the kids’ as many chances to see what they can do against MLB hitters as they can in September…at the same time they’ve got to make sure our current group of ’starters’ don’t become, completely, rust-laden. Why not say ‘to hell with pitchers’ W/L stats’, take seven or eight, or ever how many, guys and treat it like Spring Training – 3, 4 or 5 innings each to make sure everybody gets a good ‘look-see’ between now and when the rosters have to be set.
JJ is toast. I don’t know if it’s his knee, his arm, or his head, but he’s nowhere near the pitcher he was or the pitcher we need. Maybe the Detroit scribe was right, he’s been doing it with smoke and mirrors and they’ve all figured out what the ‘trick’ is – he can’t fool anybody and he can’t throw it past anybody.
Hanson needs to be shut down as well…and put on a program to change his delivery. The way he uses, or more to the point ‘fails’ to use, his legs and body in throwing the ball puts way too much stress on his shoulder. If he tries to come back this season it’s just gonna make it worse.
Say what you want to but Derek Lowe is a warrior and can give us five or six great innings each time out – trouble is we never know which five or six it’ll be – but he needs to be in the mix. The rest, Hudson, Beachy, Minor, Delgado, Teheran and ever how many others we got left that we pay to be a starting pitcher, need to be scrutinized closely over the next four weeks then give the best ‘uns the job in the post season – that assumes we make the post season.
heartofdarkness
August 31st, 2011
11:59 am
Might want to wait until three weeks done into September to worry about playoff rotation. Things may look entirely different then.
dawg-bone
August 31st, 2011
12:03 pm
Pirates get player to be named later and paid Braves Cash to off-set his 2012 salary of 2 million.
pirates were as glad to get rid of him as he was to leave.
Casey Stinkle
August 31st, 2011
12:06 pm
Right now, the only starters to trust are Hudson, Beachy, Minor, and sometimes Lowe. JJ has lost it, and should be the #5 starter. I know Beachy and Minor are somewhat green, but they are definitely way ahead of JJ. In the playoffs, i would send Lowe to the bullpen, and JJ as well (long relief). I think this team has a chance with Hudson, Beachy, and Minor. Hanson is good, but still somewhat of a question mark.
Ron Roberts
August 31st, 2011
12:06 pm
The beauty of this assemblage is this….
Say you go with Hudson, Lowe and Hanson or Jurrjens as your starting three.
You have Beachy, Minor and Jurrjens/Hanson as options should things get dicey. You have an abundance of situational bullpen arms to come in if a starter gets in a jam and we need a lefty or a righty or a groundball/double-play. Then you bring in one of the “second-tier” guys to go 3-4 innings and give your offense a chance to climb back into the game before you hand the game off to Venters and Kimbrel.
We are the ONLY playoff team that will have that sort of depth in our pitching staff. There’s something to be said for that; with a comfortable wild-card lead, I don’t see a problem with letting Lowe and Jurrjens (and Hanson, if Dr. Andrews says it’s okay to come out and play) work on getting their mechanics right before October. I remember a St. Louis Cardinals team that rode on the back of a rather pedestrian Jeff Weaver, who miraculously found his groove, and Jeff Weaver was nowhere near the pitcher then that Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are, when healthy.
Mitchell
August 31st, 2011
12:14 pm
The real story from last night at the Ted?
Two runs on five hits.
There are other concerns regarding the Braves. JJ’s recent struggles can hardly compare to Alex Gonzalez’s continued futility at the plate not to mention Jason Heyward’s shocking downward spiral offense, not to mention also his poor defensive play in right field for pretty much all of his so far brief career.
Additionally, I think we should all be very worried about Dan Uggla specifically following in the hallowed October footsteps of Gary Sheffield and JD Drew.
Memo to Braves clubhouse manager: Bring extra diapers for trip to Milwaukee just in case.
Oh yea
August 31st, 2011
12:15 pm
& Jurrjens could start by getting that WTF look off his cherubic face…
& PITCH.
maybe Scott Boras is going to pay you 15 mill a season, but the Braves sure the he11 ain’t…
JASon
August 31st, 2011
12:17 pm
“The weekend starts early with Braves, Falcons and Tech playing downtown Thursday, and Cirque de Soleil in Gwinnett.”
Is this some kind of joke? Yeah, that Cirque du Soleil is really gonna snarl traffic for miles and miles and miles and miles
DawgDad
August 31st, 2011
12:20 pm
Well, duh. Pitching is fickle, here today, gone tomorrow. It’s really a shame we may not get to see what a rotation of Hudson, Hanson, JJ, and Lowe could do in the playoffs at their peak, but that’s baseball. Yes, Wren deserves a ton of credit for landing Bourn while keeping his young guns in the fold.
September should be an open audition for spots in the playoff rotation. Right now, I’d go with Hudson, Lowe, Beachy, and Minor, but I want to see what the kids can do. If Teheran gets a handful of starts and looks good I would not hesitate to start him in the playoffs. I don’t think the Braves can count on anything at all from JJ or Hanson (as of now I wouldn’t put either on a playoff roster), but if they pitch themselves back into the mix that would be just fine, they do have a nice track record when healthy (it’s clear JJ is not 100%).
Mitchell
August 31st, 2011
12:22 pm
All the Brewers have ever done against Tommy Hanson is light his @$$ up repeatedly.
We’re better off without him in the first round, assuming we advance.
jerry
August 31st, 2011
12:24 pm
JJ: Pitching to contact.
Johnny DangerDawg
August 31st, 2011
12:28 pm
Unless all the veterans miraculously return to good health and good form, I say you give Beachy a start in the first round of the playoffs. You know the Braves are going to need him later, so let’s go ahead and get him accustomed to Playoff Pressure in the first round.
meh
August 31st, 2011
12:30 pm
Hudson and Beach get games 1 and 2. the Lowe only has to go 4 innings in game three and then we bring in Moylan (should be rehabbed and on the roster), Vizcaino, O’Flaherty, Venters, and Kimbrel for the final 5 innings. 3 game sweep, Division series won! Jurrjens and Hanson should hopefully have their crap together by the NLCS and the Braves are right back in business.
Ranger Randy
August 31st, 2011
12:42 pm
Go with the Young Guns…….and blow those Brewers away!
Stinger2
August 31st, 2011
12:45 pm
Mark: True the Braves lead the Giants by 9.5 games.
However they lead the Cardinals by only 8.5 games as of today.
cdog
August 31st, 2011
12:51 pm
FRANK WREN AND THOMAS DIMITROFF ARE THE TWO BEST GMS IN ALL OF SPORTS.THE BRAVES WILL BE IN THE WORLD SERIES REGARDLESS OF THE UMPIRING INCONSISTENCIES AGAINST.THEM.LAST NIGHT THE UMPIRE KEPT JURGENS IN TROUBLE BY NOT CALLING THE CORNERS.JURGENS HAD TO LAY IT DOWN THE MIDDLE TO GET A STRIKE.EVEN A SORRY TEAM LIKE THE NATIONALS WILL HIT BALLS DOWN THE MIDDLE CONSISTENTLY.SOMEONE SHOULD LOOK INTO THE UMPIRING IN THE LEAGUE
Atlanta Braves - World Champs - 2011 !!!
August 31st, 2011
2:21 pm
The Atlanta Braves Rank 15th in Payroll, but 5th in overall standings. Sounds like Wren Haters are just Straight Haters. I’m not a Wren Fan, but facts are facts. And baseball is the ultimate game of numbers.
Philly is paying $172M to the Braves $87M (virtually twice as much), but they are only 6 games up.
If the Braves Fans Would Sell Out Turner Field More, maybe we could get another Premier Slugger. Until then, Keep your trap closed and Thank God the Braves are doing as well are they are.
Accordingly to the numbers below, the playoffs shouldn’t be in the conversation. In fact, 4 of 8 presumed Playoffs Teams Have Payrolls Not in the Top 12. The Braves have a Good Front Office, good coaching and some talented, very dedicated players -with alot of heart.
Payroll Team Payroll Record Results
1 New York Yankees* $ 202,689,028 82 – 52 AL – E
2 Philadelphia Phillies * $ 172,976,379 85 – 46 AL – WC
3 Boston Red Sox* $ 161,762,475 81 – 52 NL – E
4 Los Angeles Angels $ 138,543,166 73 – 62 8th
5 Chicago White Sox $ 127,789,000 68 – 65 12th
6 Chicago Cubs $ 125,047,329 59 – 77 16th
7 New York Mets $ 118,847,309 64 – 69 13th
8 San Francisco Giants $ 118,198,333 71 – 65 11th
9 Minnesota Twins $ 112,737,000 56 – 79 16th
10 Detroit Tigers* $ 105,700,231 74 – 61 AL – C
11 St. Louis Cardinals $ 105,433,572 71 – 64 10th
12 Los Angeles Dodgers $ 104,188,999 64 – 70 14th
13 Texas Rangers* $ 92,299,264 77 – 59 AL – W
14 Colorado Rockies $ 88,148,071 64 – 72 15th
15 Atlanta Braves* $ 87,002,692 79 – 55 NL – WC
17 Milwaukee Brewers* $ 85,497,333 81 – 55 NL – C
25 Arizona Diamondbacks* $ 53,639,833 77 – 59 NL -W
Braves Fans: Try and be optimistic and appreciative. We have gotten way more than we are due.
And when our pitchers get back healthy, we will really be dangerous. I’m expecting an upset over the over-priced Phillies.
Braves – World Champs – 2011 !!!
Peter
August 31st, 2011
2:43 pm
I want Beachy in the rotation.
TruthSeeker
August 31st, 2011
3:01 pm
I’m a lot less confident about our chances of making noise in the playoffs than I was at the All-Star Break. Jurrjens and Hanson were looking like they were as good as any 1-2 punch in baseball. Now Jurrjens can’t get anybody out, and whether or not Hanson will even pitch again this year is unknown.
I still feel good about Hudson and Beachy. The way things are looking, that has to be the top two. The last spot should be an audition for the third and fourth spots. I hope Fredi keeps an open mind about Minor, because he is vastly outperforming Jurrjens and Lowe at the moment.
TruthSeeker
August 31st, 2011
3:02 pm
The last month should be an audition for the third and fourth spots*
the truth...
August 31st, 2011
4:04 pm
I’d be comfortable with Lowe starting as long as he has a SHORT LEASH…..PERIOD. I say 5 innings off hand, but even if it is only 3…DON’T LET HIM PUT YOU IN A DEEP HOLE…if he isn’t on…
If Freddie is going to try and get 6 out of him no matter what, then I’d rather have a rookie with some muster than tired arm D-Lowe.
oldmike
August 31st, 2011
4:25 pm
Magic number is 20. Might take a while to get there. JJ looks done. I am guessing there is something wrong with his arm. Velocity is way down. Hanson done. There is something wrong with his arm. Thanks G.. for the farm system. Can’t have enough pitchers. How about no starters? Just relievers going no more than 3 innings. Might be fun to watch.
J-bone
August 31st, 2011
6:00 pm
‘formerly formidable’… that’s awesome stuff.
Falcomania
August 31st, 2011
6:56 pm
Jurgens is done and you can stick a fork in him. He’s lost 3-4 mph on his fast ball and thats why his change up isn’t effective any more. His fast ball right now is only on average 88-90 mph. while his chane up is 84-85 mph. Not a drastic differance, but when his fast ball was 93-94 his changeup was hard to sit on. I’m not sure whats happened to him but he is avg. to below avg. right now. I would rather see Delgado and Tehran take his spot in the playoffs. If the Braves are smart they would trade him as soon as possible after the season. His trade value is plummenting.
Eras | NewsTrendr
August 31st, 2011
7:13 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
Of concern: The Braves playoff rotation is no longer a given #Derek Lowe |
August 31st, 2011
8:22 pm
[...] Check out the original source here. [...]
Skeezix
August 31st, 2011
10:14 pm
I don’t feel as good about the starters (in the post season) as I did a month ago, but we got all September for starters Lowe and J.J. to get back in form. Then we will know more where we stand. Hanson to start is probably not going to happen. Hope we get Moylan back to help with middle relief and sometimes to pitch in the 7th or 8th.
Keith
September 1st, 2011
7:05 am
Unfortantely, the Braves always play to the level of their competition. Just glad the Nats and Mets aren’t in the playoffs.
I say Huddy, then Beachy, and maybe Lowe. We’ve yet to see what Lowe’s rest of Sept looks like , but he has been pretty well of late.
Don’t forget he was not only our best pitcher in Sept last year, but he was our best pitcher in the playoffs, too.
GO BRAVES
Keith
September 1st, 2011
7:07 am
Oh, and Wren should be GM of the year! He continues to do more with less.
RGP
September 1st, 2011
7:55 am
What happened to Delgado? He pitched a one hitter when he started for Braves last time and haven’t seen him since. I assume they sent him back to AAA. That said Minor and Beachy have looked pretty good.
UKUGA
September 1st, 2011
11:44 am
Lowe was great last September and October – and was fine last night.
Too early to write off JJ. No Mets or Nats in the play-offs.
AB*Nation
September 1st, 2011
1:34 pm
Would be good with the expanded roster to start seeing Delgado and Teheran w/ some starts (beyond doubleheader either is slated for against Mets). Delgado looks mentally tough and had one bad inning in 2 starts. Teheran did not look as good as Delgado when he came up,,so pressure of the show may be too much for him (much less playoffs) at his young of an age. Some kids just have “it” when it comes to pitching in big games and want the ball …others have the talent and need to wade in from the shallow end to build confidence the traditional way. As much as it would be great,,, I do not see JJ turning anything around ,, Hanson may be done (or continued ineffective) ,, so the question then would be Lowe versus Minor versus Delgado in a game 3 vs. Brewers. If Lowe regains September form you have the option to give him the hook in game 3 if things are rocky or after 5 innings regardless to pitch Minor or Delgado. As much I despise the Phillies, I would just assume see them knock Brewers down off their confidence perch + prove out that Brewers can be beat w/ good pitching (which Braves will bring). Wren has overachieved.
bvillebaron
September 1st, 2011
4:35 pm
Falcomania:
It would be nice if your critical post about Jurrjens (not Jurgens) would be factually accurate. JJ hasn’t thrown 93-94 this entire year. As he has mentioned on numerous occasions, he deliberatley decided to throw more 2 seamers at less velocity to try to be more consistent in the strike zone and get outs by pitching to contact. Funny, how his drop in velocity from years past wasn’t an issue for any of you critics when he was leading the NL in ERA before the Allstar break.
Obviously, JJ has struggled since and he clearly hasn’t been hitting his spots lately. Who knows whether he still is feeling the effects from his knee (as Rob Dibble insists) or whether he is just in a funk.
My own view is that he wasn’t as good as his sub 2.00 ERA suggested earlier this year and isn’t as bad as he has shown lately (the sabermetrics guys will tell you that he had an unsustainably low BABIP earlier this year and are probably right).
Despite the pitching struggles and/or injuries of JJ, Hanson and Lowe, the Braves went 17-9 in August and 7-3 over their last 10 games.
If this was the end of September I would be concerned, but this is September 1st and the playoffs don’t start for another month so there is plenty of time for the starters to right the ship (which hopefully is exactly what Lowe did last night).
Eddie B
September 2nd, 2011
10:20 pm
Playoff Rotation:
NLDS
GM1 Hudson- Ace of the staff
GM2 Lowe- Big game pitcher
GM3 Beachy- Better for him to pitch at home
GM4 Hudson
GM5 Lowe
NLCS
GM1 Hudson
GM2 Beachy
GM3 Lowe
GM4 Hudson
GM5 Beachy
GM6 Lowe
GM7 Hudson
World Series
GM1 Hudson
GM2 Beachy
GM3 Lowe
GM4 Hudson
GM5 Beachy
GM6 Lowe
GM7 Hudson
HJones
September 3rd, 2011
9:11 am
I’m still not happy with ALL STAR SECOND BASE PLAYER PRADO being rooted from his job by a player who did not hit up to par for weeks. It was a bad move by Fredi Gonzalez, and Prado has practically been neutralized.
Bradley gets paid?
September 5th, 2011
12:55 pm
Next Bradley article: ‘The sky is blue, and the sun is hot!’
chief pitchanono
September 5th, 2011
1:24 pm
These are big concerns, but fortunatley its the begining of September and not October. We have time to work allot of this out. I think Lowe is the key to our playoff success. He is known for being very good during at the end of the the season and playoffs and he is trending that way again this year. If he does what he normally does the Braves will be fine with him huddy and beachy. It would be great to get Hanson or Jurggens back, but they have to be effective to do us any good. The only way for the Braves to know this is to be able to get them in a few starts before the end of the season, so it will be intersting to see if that can happen. The worst thing for the Braves is for them to rush back and totally blow a playoff start in the short series. That being said they are a big part of the reason we are going to get in and if its possible they certainly deserve to be apart of the playoffs. Go Braves!!
Bourn Brave
September 5th, 2011
3:21 pm
First of all, new to comments so hey to all. Second, the braves should go with Hudson, Lowe, and Beachy in the division series. Idealy it would be Hudson, Jurrjens, and Hanson, but two of those three are hurt. Can’t mess around trying to pitch guys who might not be ready to go when the bell rings in the playoffs. Of the young guns, Minor would be the one I would pitch especially against the phillies’ lineup (some of their guys struggle vs. lefties). Otherwise, I wouldn’t risk putting them in high pressure playoff games just yet.
Steve
September 6th, 2011
11:43 pm
The Braves may go down as one of the greatest chokes in history. They may give up a huge wild card lead and not make the playoffs. They are playing without passion, like they are old and tired. Hard to watch.
randy_bottoms
September 7th, 2011
6:13 am
Wrenhater, you aren’t just an idiot, you are a baseball idiot. Was Mazzone responsible for all of John Smoltz’s injuries? I wish you would stick your season tickets in your stupid butt (you remind me of some frat boys that sat in front of me at a Braves game. They were yelling “go back to the minors” at Dan Uggla right before he went on a tear.)