5 things that could rain on my sunny forecast and undo UGA
These folks seem rather cheerful. Well, don't they? (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
I’m on record as having picked Georgia to go 10-2, win the SEC East and finish No. 11 in the land. I would say that qualifies me, just this once, as an optimist.
But I wouldn’t be gloomy ol’ MB if my every thought was sweetness and light. I’m willing to concede that this season could come undone … if all (or most of) this happens.
1. Isaiah Crowell is overrated. I don’t think he is. But not everyone can be The Next Herschel Walker. The Bulldogs have searched for three decades and haven’t quite found another. (Although Tim Worley and Rodney Hampton and Garrison Hearst and the pre-surgical Robert Edwards and Knowshon Moreno were pretty good. And Terrell Davis would have been had Ray Goff gotten him the ball.)
Since Signing Day, Mark Richt has acted if Crowell, borrowing from the soccer coach Jose Mourinho, is indeed “a special one.” When asked last month if he feared his backfield, without the washouts Washaun Ealey and Caleb King, would suffer, Richt said, “I don’t know there was a time last year when I thought our backs were playing lights-out.” The implication was that this season might be such a time. But that’s a lot to ask of any freshman. If not the new Herschel, Crowell needs at least to be the new Hearst.
2. A.J. Green and Kris Durham prove irreplaceable. Even if Crowell is great, we shouldn’t expect these Bulldogs to become the 1980 Bulldogs. Richt’s is a finesse offense. His quarterback will throw the ball a lot. At issue is whether Tavarres King and Marlon Brown and Malcolm Mitchell and Rantavious Wooten — all of whom are talents — can supply the production lost with Green and Durham.
Given that Green was the greatest wide receiver in Georgia history, the guess here is that there’ll be some decline. But let’s not forget Orson Charles, who’s technically a tight end but who often aligns himself as a slot receiver. He might be the best tight end in Bulldog annals. (And yes, that’s saying something.) He’s the key to the passing game.
3. Todd Grantham is overrated. He has a big reputation and gets paid a ton of money and gives expert (if ineffective) choke signs, but he hasn’t yet proved he’s a top-shelf collegiate defensive coordinator. (Then again, he has only been a college DC for one year.) His 3-4 looked good on occasion last season, less good on other occasions. Auburn ran through it, but Auburn did that to a lot of defenses, Alabama’s included. Georgia Tech ran through it without its starting quarterback, but Paul Johnson can have that effect.
There’s no reason Georgia shouldn’t have a big-time defense. It has seasoned defensive backs, gifted linebackers and the requisite nose tackle (in either Kwame Geathers or Jonathan Jenkins) it lacked last season. If the Bulldogs can’t stop people this season, it’ll be because Richt hired the wrong man to replace Willie Martinez.
4. It starts 0-2. Georgia could lose to Boise State this Saturday. It could lose to South Carolina the next week. (For the record, I don’t think it will lose either game.) Should that doomsday scenario occur, would the season still be worth playing? Or should Georgia just fire Richt and hire Kirby Smart on the spot?
Wait a second. Even at 0-2, Georgia would still have a chance to right itself. Its two toughest games would be behind it. Mississippi State has to come to Athens. Tennessee and Florida are in major flux. From 0-2, it wouldn’t be unthinkable to see the Bulldogs — who are a young team, and young teams tend to get better as they go — win nine or even 10 games. There might indeed be life after doomsday.
5. It has simply forgotten how to win. This is the biggest concern. Check Georgia’s stats from last season and you’ll get the drift. The Bulldogs outscored opponents by 130 points. They outgained opponents by 734 yards and had 10 fewer turnovers. And yet they finished with a losing record.
This happened because Georgia lost every game that was in doubt in the fourth quarter save Georgia Tech. (Another stat: Georgia outscored the opposition in each of the first three quarters on the season — but was outscored 92-68 in the fourth.) The Bulldogs shouldn’t have been 6-7, but they were. Was 2010, as Richt has suggested, just one of those bizarre years, or was it the clearest indication yet that Georgia is no longer Georgia? And if that’s the case, can even a Dream Team save this program?
By Mark Bradley
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256 comments Add your comment
Delbert D.
August 29th, 2011
7:39 pm
“…could have easily been…”
If it was so easy, why didn’t it happen?
CHDawg
August 29th, 2011
7:43 pm
Oompa, Midget? Let’s see, Moore is an inch shorter and 20 pounds lighter, almost a half second slower in the 40. I think Murray can make it…gloves or no.
Sec fan
August 29th, 2011
7:51 pm
Uga will win this game by double digits and I hate uga.
Mr . Peterson
August 29th, 2011
7:59 pm
Richt will now face a real game day coach in Peterson. Richt will look up at the jumbotron and run his fingers through his hair while looking clueless. Richt cant adjust on the fly cuz its gonna get nasty!
CarefulNow
August 29th, 2011
8:05 pm
Prior to the season is no time to make “serious predictions”; it is time to have a little fun. One might as well use a flip of the coin for the first two games. The coin tossing is as likely to produce correct results as the “careful silliness” of trying to predict having never seen any of these teams play a single down. But it’s fun anyway. Some games, one doesn’t need a coin. For the ones that do, just assign each team a coin side and …flip away. You are likely to do no worse than merely guessing….
so here goes….Uga beats Boise State and loses to South Carolina.. That’s what the coin revealed.
Sorry…..but the coin doesn’t provide scores.
Worm
August 29th, 2011
8:08 pm
Ken Malcome to transfer.
Delbert D.
August 29th, 2011
8:08 pm
Before anybody is deemed to be the New Herschel, ask yourself these 2 questions:
Can he run 100 yards in 9.4 seconds?
Can he carry the ball 40 times in a game?
Fran who?
August 29th, 2011
8:15 pm
I just watched the 2001 Tennessee game at Knoxville. Tennessee scored on a screen pass with 42 second left to go up by four. Mark Richt didn’t change expressions. He didn’t change expressions 37 seconds later when David Greene hit Verron Haynes on the “Hobnail Boot” play. Nobody complained that he was not emotional enough then, or the next year when he won the SEC and finished 3rd in both polls. Georgia hit a plateau. Richt took steps to right the ship. Georgia will win AT LEAST 10 games this year–starting with Saturday night in the Dome. 37-24. DAWGS on top!
Fan of the Game
August 29th, 2011
8:21 pm
There will never be another Herschel. There are not many kids out there today that have the physical makeup with work ethic, mental sharpness, academics and mainly the great attitude that Herschel had.
Tech Buzz
August 29th, 2011
8:24 pm
grantham can’t coach a lick, but he’s good with the choke sign!! keep it up todd!!
Delbert D.
August 29th, 2011
8:26 pm
Fan of the Game – Thanks for that. I didn’t include all of those attributes because it would be demoralizing to the “New Herschel” awaitees who have been kneeling with their hands clasped for so long.
OldFan
August 29th, 2011
8:34 pm
Backing away nicely, Mark. Four out of five will happen. UGA better, but they ain’t 10-2. And, they will lose the first two.
bigcalidawg
August 29th, 2011
8:38 pm
Vance Duly
August 29th, 2011
2:13 pm
I would have added to the list with a 5a: Will Coach Bobo emphasize his offense’s strengths (whatever they turn out to be) and refuse to follow his recent trends of barf-inducing predictability in certain game situations and of dropping what IS working in favor of some weak attempt at “balance” or “spreading the wealth around”. If he grows into his OC job, we might win 10 games. If he does not, we WILL lose a game or 2 that we could have been won. GO DAWGS!”
ABSOLUTELY……there is a time to be a mathematician (statistician) and a time to have the gut instinct to just go for the jugular. How many times over the years has Bobo given the defense a chance to collect themselves when we clearly have the advantage in a given area?
That balanced attack worked extremely well with David Greene, or even with an abundance of talent at ones disposal, but sometimes you just need to be football smart and stay off the chart……….
Reminds me of when I have ubertalented teams in my PS NCAA dynasty. Hell…..I can run anything and be successful, but sometimes, you gotta do like that Mississippi State Coach that beat our as* last year and just figure out what’s workin’ and ride that horse all day……..
Dr. Phil
August 29th, 2011
8:45 pm
I just wonder how other players feel about “the special one?”
MarineDog
August 29th, 2011
8:46 pm
For any of those that are interested; they are replaying the Boise St./Virginia Tech game on ESPN Classic.
charl. dawg
August 29th, 2011
8:48 pm
Seems to me the negative fourth quarter stat regarding our defense shows our lack of size on the defensive line last year. Tyson played out of position. He play valiantly, but out of position. When the fourth quarter roled around UGA’s defense got destroyed up front. With a 3-4 defense our line operated like a good 1-AA defense. No depth. The addition of big beef in the middle should make a huge difference.
z
August 29th, 2011
9:03 pm
If UGA lose, it will be because of poor OL play. Their recent OL recruiting has consisted of begging hurt, small school linemen, and brothers of hurt, small school to show up in Athens.
Friend will reverse that, but it may be too late, At least the next HC will have something to work with.
Tom, Resident Georgia Fan
August 29th, 2011
9:09 pm
Key stat: We were outscored 92 – 68 in the fourth last year. Why? Because we were soft, out of shape. that has changed. We’ll surprise the hell out of the SEC. Book it!
Fro
August 29th, 2011
9:14 pm
Folks, say what you want to, but it comes down to your QB making big play sin big game sin the SEC EAST. That’s just the way it is. tebow delivered. Garcia delivered last year. Murray didn’t get it done last year. I wonder how many losses until Hutson Mason is put in to rescue the season. If you’re losing, look at your leadership. And take a close look at the guy who touches it most, the QB. Winless against winning teams, not near what UGA is all about. We can do better.
Frodo
August 29th, 2011
9:20 pm
It ain’t real hard to beat Herschel’s production, he got what 5.27 a carry, and scored bout every 20 touches. Washaun Ealey beat both of those in his time at Georgia. Herschel just got 2x more carries than Ealey. Only diff is Dooley knew where to keep handing the ball off to and rewarded results, Bobo, likes spreading it around to guys who can’t score. Ealey had 11 td’s folks on 157 carries. Only 4 RBs’ in the NCAA scored 11 td’s on @150 carries. Ealey was one of them. King? 2 td’s. come on man.
Samuel or Crowell together might get close to 11 td’s, hopefuly as a tandem they can replace Ealey’s 11 td’s (I doubt it since Ealey outscored te entire team of rb’s last year by 2x).
But, hey, when you waste your talent, it transfers to other managers.
KRod
August 29th, 2011
9:21 pm
Ain’t look sunny this year.
dap01
August 29th, 2011
9:29 pm
Jeff Schultz would celebrate UGA having a difficult year. He would spit out an article a day.
Paul in NH (formerly RDU)
August 29th, 2011
9:34 pm
Delbert,
You needed to modify your second question as to whether someone is the new Herschel.
Can he carry the ball 40 times in a game when everyone on the field is expecting him to carry it?
Dawg Whisperer
August 29th, 2011
9:39 pm
Aaron Murray is a gamer and he will be the difference. No, it’s not deep but the UGA defense and Murray will be the difference. Murray will “will” UGA to victory. Thanks, Tampa, Fl. You’ve been kind to Richt and UGA. If the gators had Murray instead of UGA, Bradley would have reversed his poll position of these two schools.
FLA DAWG
August 29th, 2011
9:42 pm
Hi Mark,
Well my friend another UGA season is at our throats!
I’m sorry but despite a relatively easy (overall) schedule I think The Dawgs lose a minimum of 4 games and here’s why – correlating to your well made points.
1. Even if Crowell becomes another Walker we don’t have the O Line that blocked for him. Please remember that Richt is a passing oriented HC which means the O Line is used to pass blocking and has shown its below average run blocking – a HUGE difference for UGA from Pre-Richt days.
2, AJ was an even greater talent than most realize but they will within the next five years. Durham was underused and underated and therefore a second set of experienced hands will be sorely missed.
3. Grantham. This guy had a great opportunity placed into his hands along with alot of money. Regrettably it appears he’s not been worth the money. One can argue about his gameplan but no one can dispute his D players were out of position and unable to tackle to the caliber of SEC D players. And how many points did we give up – Martinesque!
4. Mark, Mark, Mark……………you think The Dawgs will win both initial games……….but if they don’t they could still win the rest………!? Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh uhhhhhhhh, no.
At best they will go 1-1 and certainly lose to UF. If we couldn’t beat them last year in the annual AWAY GAME then I see no reason why one should believe we’ll beat them this year.
5. Bingo! They have forgotten how to win and Richt has – by omission I believe, taught them how to lose. All one needs to recall is the last game The Dawgs played. The absolute resignation by most players on the field during the post season game against UCF was as profound in loss as the Masterful gameplan and player executionand Victory by The Dawgs against ND in New Orleans in 1980.
Of course the above is just my opinion and I’m just a ‘79 alum wanting to be able to wear my G hat again.
FLA DAWG
Class of ‘79
KRod
August 29th, 2011
10:01 pm
Th way i see it, if Murray could beat a winning team, why did he go 0-6 as the QB/leader last year?
KRod
August 29th, 2011
10:01 pm
How you figure Murray is a “gamer”? Against who? Idaho State?
IC Rules
August 29th, 2011
10:13 pm
IC will light it up for huge yards against that weak boise D—Murray throws a couple of TDs and the dawgs win easy—34-13.
Go Power Rangers
August 29th, 2011
10:16 pm
The last time we played in red pants we won a national title.
Najarian
August 29th, 2011
10:18 pm
6-7 last year and you expect 10-2. Good grief are you clueless. They will have 2 losses after week 2. Yeah rely on a freshman to run. That formula works about 10% of the time. Passing game will suffer and all that hype Murray has heard over the offseason will affect him. Sophmore slump. 6-6 again. Maybe with luck, 7-5
Dan
August 29th, 2011
10:19 pm
Wow so you pick uga to win 2 games they are underdogs in? Good luck with that.
Boise Bob
August 29th, 2011
10:23 pm
Yeah that boise d never faced any good running backs. VT didn’t have anyone drafted at that position last year in the nfl. Oh wait, they had TWO drafted!
KRod
August 29th, 2011
10:32 pm
Little tip for Mike Bobo:
If your QB is ranked LAST in th NCAA in passing accuracy in the 4th quarter, barely completes 50%, and only threw a 4th qrtr td 4x in 13 games, you might want to get a new QB or run the football.
Go Power Rangers
August 29th, 2011
10:33 pm
Boise Bob, it is foolish to compare games even within the same season. Let alone the first game you played last year.
bitter dawgs fan
August 29th, 2011
10:33 pm
bradley–you can make my good day seem glum–me————dude were 5 days away and your
——–negitive as—s has all hate–in trolls—bamma nation, nebraska nation–ect
————all the typical hate==ers love your site——————–your as bad as CRAVELL
———————–you should write for south beach———–there used to being kick lately
——————————-hahahahahah—-bradley take a hand full of viagra dude—learn to be positive
DAWGBONE
August 29th, 2011
11:20 pm
“Coach Searels leaving will be the biggest move this off-season. He had a zone blocking scheme and our players didn’t perform well at that. Will Friend is a more drive your man off the ball, straight ahead kind of coach and that’s his philosophy. Our players are built for that type of football. I can’t wait to punish Boise. I will repeat, Boise has not seen size, speed or athleticism that they will see on Saturday. They just haven’t seen it. Not from VT, not from Oregon, and sure as hell not from the WAC. They’ll find out.”
Athens Dog hit it right on…Boise is way over rated playing in a week conference and racking up big yet meaningless stats against the WAC. I remember 2005 Boise came to Athens and all I heard was how their high powered offense was gonna tear us up. Just in case you forgot what happened here is a five minute reminder http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Syu8jx_BA94
Fast forward to 2008 and hear the hype from Mark “I hate Georgia” May blah, blah, blah
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJXR7QSWey0
Just tell me people, what did both opposing QB’s have in common? Yes, they both lost….convincingly! They also got hit so hard, so many times they were knocked out of the game.
Quit buying into the hype…again. Georgia will dominate and it will not be close. Their QB will not last through the 3rd quarter….
Now, playing SC the following week – that will be a slobber knocker and anybody’s game. Hoping for 2-0 but 1-0 is a lock!
DAWGBONE
AceDawg
August 29th, 2011
11:22 pm
The Dawgs have a strong team on paper. With good coaching and a bit of luck as far as injuries go, they could be a BCS team. Just ask yourself if Aaron Murray could be great this year. Ask yourself if the UGA defense will be strong. If you say yes to both, why not expect big things and leave it to the coaching to deliver? Richt, I am worried, but I’ll give you a new shot this year. Go Dawgs!
dan
August 29th, 2011
11:24 pm
So here is what I’m thinking for the upcoming UGA Football season:
The Dawgs will drop the first two games to Boise State and South Carolina to start season 0-2. Everyone will be losing their minds and calling for Richt’s immediate dismissal, which of course won’t happen. UGA will then go on a 9 game winning streak with one of those wins being over a crappy Florida team. There may be a chance that at this point in the season; South Carolina will have lost 2 conference games because they are South Carolina, and well… choking is what they do. So should the Dawgs clinch the East vs. Kentucky, they will probably be looking ahead to the SEC title game. This means they’ll probably slop around vs. an inferior Tech team and lose.
So with a dominant 9-3 record,the Dawgs will limp into the GA Dome with zero momentum for the SEC title game. They will then proceed to get the ever living tar beat out of them by either Alabama or LSU.The Dawgs will then finish the season with a meaningless win over a Big 10 team in the Outback Bowl for a final 10-4 record. This will no doubt convince the idiot UGA donors that Richt has righted the ship( which of course is nothing more than a temporary aberration). Richt may even getting a contract extension; further prolonging the agony that is UGA football.
KRod
August 29th, 2011
11:46 pm
There’s a few problems wit that scenario. Agree on 1st 2 loss’s to Boise/SC.
1- Richt’s record is 2-8 vs. UF, that’s an L for loss #3
2- Richt went 0-5 vs. ranked teams in 10′, 2-8 last 2 years, loss’s #4 to Aub or MSU
3- Assuming richt will beat Kentucky & Tech & Tenn and go 3-0, only beat all 3 once in 5 years, 4 out 5 season losses 1-2 of these 3
4- Richt loses more games than the yar before 7 out of last 8 seaosns, 87%
87% chance loses 7 games and goes 5-7. 13% chance Richt goes 7-5 or better.
z
August 29th, 2011
11:48 pm
Gee, Go Power Rangers, we really won a National Titile under Donnan?
Go figure, we wore ugly red pants in one of JD’s bowl games
gcs
August 30th, 2011
12:12 am
1. Isaiah Crowell is overrated. He is a fine player but he is a freshman and FAR from being Herschel. UGA fans are heaping too much hope on his shoulders.
2. A.J. Green and Kris Durham prove irreplaceable. Losing a once in a generation player like AJ is quite a blow. But losing Durham too might be a bit much to overcome.
3. Todd Grantham is overrated. Todd who?
4. It starts 0-2. Don’t scoff. It very well could happen.
5. It has simply forgotten how to win. I don’t think this team has the mindset or work ethics to win big. They are good at talking and pumping themselves up though!
Mike
August 30th, 2011
12:49 am
Mark,
there is only one reason your prediction could be undone and that is #3 on your list…the defense. UGA’s offense has not forgotten how to put points on the board over the last two seasons. They just couldnt put as many points up as Stafford and Moreno which is the only reason the 2008 team didnt end up with a 6-7 win regular season. Joe Cox’s UGA team in 2009 would have ended in a losing record if he wasnt able to outscore South Carolina, Arkansas, and Auburn. They scored over 30 against UK and still lost. Aaron Murray set an SEC freshman record last year, but the defense gave up a game winning play against Arkansas, 24 pts against a sorry Miss St. offense, 30 points to an even worse UF offense, and 30 pts to an even WORSE Colorado offense. Then they couldnt stop Cam Newton past the first quarter…not even once.
If Richt started his tenure with this type of defense, he would have been lucky to last longer than Jim Donnan did. The defense is what needs fixing. All else is media hype and just not looking at the facts.
Reality Dawg
August 30th, 2011
1:21 am
I’m back! I will be giving all Dawg fans he’ll again this year. Last year I actually made a guy cry on this blog.
MB:
Your predictive abilities are notable for how frequently you are wrong. My favorite Bradley forecast: “Braves in 6 and pitching is why”. The braves promptly lost the ‘91 World Series in 7. The Dawgs will be 8-4 thus year and Richt will still be in Athens this time next year.
tom
August 30th, 2011
3:41 am
Well, here we go with trying to make the Dog’s loss to Boise State ok kinda. Eric Z on the radio states the Dog’s winning would be great, but if they lose it is not a big deal since they are the underdog and it is not an SEC match. Gee-Golly what a wonderful way to paint a a—— whoopin about to happen.
John Clay's Sidelines
August 30th, 2011
6:27 am
[...] Bradley of the AJC says five things could wreck Georgia’s season. No. 5 would be if the Dogs have simply forgotten how to win. As Bradley points out, [...]
A Tale of Two Cities...err Football Programs
August 30th, 2011
7:01 am
Texas A&M vs. University of Georgia in the Shreveport, La. Independence Bowl two seasons ago…look where they’re at today…Texas A&M is ranked in the top 10 in most polls…does anybody think that Texas A&M is really getting the best players in Texas when they have to go up against the Longhorns…guess which team gets the best players out of the state of Georgia…which team gets one of the top 5 recruiting classes every year…can you figure it out on your own
Weather Channel Expert
August 30th, 2011
7:03 am
Let’s just let the season play out. How about that?
Atticus
August 30th, 2011
7:13 am
Mark, #3 is the one that is thebiggest issue. Either Grantham is the right guy or he isn’t. And no matter what happens, Kirby Smart is NOT the next UGA coach, mark it down.
hello
August 30th, 2011
7:33 am
Not a bad article. I really think the fans care more about this drama than the players. They just want to burn a few years in the college arena and get into the NFL. If UGA loses out this year Richt should be replaced but you have to wonder. They havent fired him yet. So, you have to say they may not want a national championship—they may just want to win 8 games a year and be ok.
Double Zero Eight
August 30th, 2011
7:43 am
The main factor to consider is the offensive line.
If it is not physical and effective. expect a
“torrential downpour”. Crowell and Murray will not
be “game changers” if the O-Line proves to be weak.