5 things that could rain on my sunny forecast and undo UGA
These folks seem rather cheerful. Well, don't they? (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
I’m on record as having picked Georgia to go 10-2, win the SEC East and finish No. 11 in the land. I would say that qualifies me, just this once, as an optimist.
But I wouldn’t be gloomy ol’ MB if my every thought was sweetness and light. I’m willing to concede that this season could come undone … if all (or most of) this happens.
1. Isaiah Crowell is overrated. I don’t think he is. But not everyone can be The Next Herschel Walker. The Bulldogs have searched for three decades and haven’t quite found another. (Although Tim Worley and Rodney Hampton and Garrison Hearst and the pre-surgical Robert Edwards and Knowshon Moreno were pretty good. And Terrell Davis would have been had Ray Goff gotten him the ball.)
Since Signing Day, Mark Richt has acted if Crowell, borrowing from the soccer coach Jose Mourinho, is indeed “a special one.” When asked last month if he feared his backfield, without the washouts Washaun Ealey and Caleb King, would suffer, Richt said, “I don’t know there was a time last year when I thought our backs were playing lights-out.” The implication was that this season might be such a time. But that’s a lot to ask of any freshman. If not the new Herschel, Crowell needs at least to be the new Hearst.
2. A.J. Green and Kris Durham prove irreplaceable. Even if Crowell is great, we shouldn’t expect these Bulldogs to become the 1980 Bulldogs. Richt’s is a finesse offense. His quarterback will throw the ball a lot. At issue is whether Tavarres King and Marlon Brown and Malcolm Mitchell and Rantavious Wooten — all of whom are talents — can supply the production lost with Green and Durham.
Given that Green was the greatest wide receiver in Georgia history, the guess here is that there’ll be some decline. But let’s not forget Orson Charles, who’s technically a tight end but who often aligns himself as a slot receiver. He might be the best tight end in Bulldog annals. (And yes, that’s saying something.) He’s the key to the passing game.
3. Todd Grantham is overrated. He has a big reputation and gets paid a ton of money and gives expert (if ineffective) choke signs, but he hasn’t yet proved he’s a top-shelf collegiate defensive coordinator. (Then again, he has only been a college DC for one year.) His 3-4 looked good on occasion last season, less good on other occasions. Auburn ran through it, but Auburn did that to a lot of defenses, Alabama’s included. Georgia Tech ran through it without its starting quarterback, but Paul Johnson can have that effect.
There’s no reason Georgia shouldn’t have a big-time defense. It has seasoned defensive backs, gifted linebackers and the requisite nose tackle (in either Kwame Geathers or Jonathan Jenkins) it lacked last season. If the Bulldogs can’t stop people this season, it’ll be because Richt hired the wrong man to replace Willie Martinez.
4. It starts 0-2. Georgia could lose to Boise State this Saturday. It could lose to South Carolina the next week. (For the record, I don’t think it will lose either game.) Should that doomsday scenario occur, would the season still be worth playing? Or should Georgia just fire Richt and hire Kirby Smart on the spot?
Wait a second. Even at 0-2, Georgia would still have a chance to right itself. Its two toughest games would be behind it. Mississippi State has to come to Athens. Tennessee and Florida are in major flux. From 0-2, it wouldn’t be unthinkable to see the Bulldogs — who are a young team, and young teams tend to get better as they go — win nine or even 10 games. There might indeed be life after doomsday.
5. It has simply forgotten how to win. This is the biggest concern. Check Georgia’s stats from last season and you’ll get the drift. The Bulldogs outscored opponents by 130 points. They outgained opponents by 734 yards and had 10 fewer turnovers. And yet they finished with a losing record.
This happened because Georgia lost every game that was in doubt in the fourth quarter save Georgia Tech. (Another stat: Georgia outscored the opposition in each of the first three quarters on the season — but was outscored 92-68 in the fourth.) The Bulldogs shouldn’t have been 6-7, but they were. Was 2010, as Richt has suggested, just one of those bizarre years, or was it the clearest indication yet that Georgia is no longer Georgia? And if that’s the case, can even a Dream Team save this program?
By Mark Bradley
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256 comments Add your comment
lowcountry bulldog = dr phil
August 29th, 2011
4:40 pm
you cannot understand psychology?
please, give us a break. i have inside knowledge that the entire coaching staff was telling the players this game was won just by showing up. what kind of deep seated psychological knowledge do we need to understand that? we dont.
your job as a coach is to make sure that your team plays every down of every game as hard as it can. there are no excuses. even field goal jesus should understand that it says in the bible he who is faithful in the small things will be given greater things….
but then field goal jesus’s bible also says “he that inventeth the perfect game plan shall be forgiven all sins and shall not be blamed should thy players fail to execute’
we are tired of the religious smoke screen and excuses. richt gets the job done, he should stay. if he doesn’t, he needs to go. it’s that simple.
techfan
August 29th, 2011
4:41 pm
So – If SEC expands – it seems B10 will follow – and going into the ATL market would be huge.
I think that is what most Tech fans would want. We fit much better in the B10 then we would in the SEC and we would make more money in the long run. Plus going to the Big House or the Horse Shoe for games would be awesome.
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
August 29th, 2011
4:42 pm
I just love how Murray gets the blame yet a coaching staff that had 4 starters for the NFL on offense; Stafford Greene Moreno and Mo Mass couldnt even score a point against AL in the first half and was down 31-0
WOW
Yea Murray is to blame for 2-8 vs FL as well
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
August 29th, 2011
4:45 pm
Well sportsfans the talking season is over for the might UGA dawgs and now they have to play and that is a problem. You have the punkazz return man that has done nothing in his career running that dawg mouth much like the fans. Pitiful at best and shows the character of the HC. Las Vegas doesn’t see your dogs being the team you think but then again what can you say about the greates football team in America from March until August. USCe is going to spank your behind and make you like it. Start taking up a collection for the Rev Richt for his buyout because the guy is done.
Xspot
August 29th, 2011
4:48 pm
Well, most of the time, Bobo has done well in scoring, against ranked teams. Not so with Murray.
Xspot
August 29th, 2011
4:50 pm
Murray did have 10 starts back, the msot experienced O-Line in the NCAA, 2 future NFL receivers, and loads of expeirence and talent at RB, and he couldn’t really score against ranked teams (Auburn exception and their pass defense was about the worst in the country)
Lowcountry Bulldawg
August 29th, 2011
4:50 pm
Your inside knowledge is a crock then. Also save us with the biblical quotes on a sports blog and take your Anti-Richt garbage somewhere else. Take your quarter and call someone who flippin cares. Inside info my butt.
Dawg-a-licious!
August 29th, 2011
4:50 pm
Nebraska,
It’s all in good fun! But we UGA fans are truly ill…..Dawg-itis!!!!!
GeoffDawg
August 29th, 2011
4:58 pm
techfan – that would be a weird conference geographically speaking. Would you really want to be in a position to travel that far for every conference away game? Your players would qualify for Delta platinum status by the end of the year.
Paul in NH (formerly RDU)
August 29th, 2011
5:00 pm
Columbus
August 29th, 2011
4:04 pm
6 10 win season in first 10 years as a head coach speaks for itself. Everyone has down years. Only Paterno has as good of a record in first 10 years. Not Dooley, not Saban, not Bryant, not Bowden. Saban was close but the rest were far behind. FAR behind
———-\
1st 10 years as HC
Mark Richt 96-34
Richt has a great record but he falls a little short of these 4 guys
Urban Meyer 104-23
Tom Osborne 96-24-2
Joe Paterno 94-18-1
Barry Switzer 96-17-3
GatorGus
August 29th, 2011
5:01 pm
Keep Richt & Murray, they’re both winners! Keep the faith UGA fans, you got yourself winners there!
fLRDAfAN
August 29th, 2011
5:03 pm
Stay with Richt & Murray, winners all the way! Don’t fire them, please.
atlvol55
August 29th, 2011
5:12 pm
Should be a great game. While that bowl game was about as ugly as it gets for UGA, I look for them to play well on Sat. I’m guessing the dome is going to be deafing come Sat. night. I’m not sure Boise is going to know what hit them. I’m think UGA comes out white hot, builds a lead, and then holds on late for a great game.
This is one time I will root for the dawgs. Go Vols
Thom Thumb
August 29th, 2011
5:12 pm
You forgot to mention if Aaron Murray loses his shoe lifts.
Thom Thumb
August 29th, 2011
5:13 pm
You forgot to mention what would happen if Aaron Murray loses his shoe lifts.
ga gator
August 29th, 2011
5:15 pm
Of the 5 I would fear only that Grantham could be overrated. He gave up over 30 to the worst Gator offense since 1990.
Craig Kimbrel
August 29th, 2011
5:17 pm
Why is there no buzz about UGA football?
MM
August 29th, 2011
5:21 pm
Exactly what I have been saying all along, BAMA, Fl, Auburn, and now maybe South Carolina expect to win, UGA does not.
ActuaryDawg
August 29th, 2011
5:25 pm
I’ve read where Herschel Walker and Jared Zabransky will be honorary captains at Saturday’s coin toss. My prediction, Zabransky throw the coin in the and before he can call it, Dannell Ellerbe comes out of nowhere for pick.
John
August 29th, 2011
5:37 pm
Crowell & the other members of the “dream team” will do well until he’s coached up by Georgia coaches, just like the many other players that are mediocre at UGA then go on to the NFL. O. Charles is a great talent, but your QB is 5′10 and can’t see over the middle, and you wonder why he is rarely thrown to? Charles will be a great late round pick, because his numbers will never be good at UGA but he’ll do well in the pros.
chickenman
August 29th, 2011
5:37 pm
CROWELL FOR HEISMAN
techfan
August 29th, 2011
5:41 pm
@GeoffDawg, I think it would work. We are nearing the end of regional conferences anyways. Ann Arbor and Columbus are closer to Atlanta then College Station and Fayeteville are to Athens. It’s really just the difference in flight costs which wouldn’t be that terrible a few times a year.
CHDawg
August 29th, 2011
5:42 pm
Mark, Mark, Mark…don’t chicken out on that forecast! You should have predicted Dome to Dome to Dome and Richt’s first NC! You would have gone down as the guy who predicted it all–now you are backtracking and covering 6 with this terrible piece. I am so disappointed at your backtracking. Also, remember that we have several capable TBs–Samuel isn’t the same player he was two years ago. This was your chance at stardom, Mark, especially since most of the talking sports heads are predicting another bad year for the Dawgs–Mark this post, Mark!
atlvol55
August 29th, 2011
5:43 pm
Really look forward to this game. While UGA really played poorly in that bowl game, I think Boise may be a little shell shocked come Sat. I think the dome will be deafening. I look for UGA to come out white hot, get a big lead, and hold on late.
This is once I will be rooting for the dawgs. Go Vols
CHDawg
August 29th, 2011
5:44 pm
Mark, Mark..this was your chance at stardom. You should have predicted Dome to Dome to Dome! They would have signed you to a million $$ contract at ESPN when we win it all. Mark this post, Mark.
Autiger83
August 29th, 2011
6:19 pm
Heres one thing that could undo the dawgs…Auburn shows up and whips that puppy arse.
SEC Facts Finder
August 29th, 2011
6:20 pm
************************This is to any fan of any school in the SEC*****************************************
If you are true fan of any school in the SEC, you should be hoping that UGA beats Boise St, or LSU beats Oregon. Why? Because removing those two schools from the overall national title hunt early allows other schools within the conference a better opportunity to get to the title game. The deck is already stacked against the conference with The former Big 12 minus Nebraska. Texas and Oklahoma have a much easier time getting there without playing any schools( outside of FSU for Oklahoma) that will impose a great challenge. Secondly, if UGA beats a Boise St, any school that plays UGA and wins or loses is aided in the computer polls with strength of schedule and built in dynamics. The same goes for LSU beating Oregon.
I had much rather see every school win every game outside the conference, and challenge each other during conference games. That will not happen but we can hope and pray that will happen.
The Boise St. fans, Oregon fans and those outside the conference have a right to talk smack. Let the play on the field do your talking for you and we can all sit back and just smile as the teams match up with the other conferences throughout the season and post wins.
Good luck to all your teams.
juice sourcer
August 29th, 2011
6:22 pm
I they lose to South Carolina which they will..season over…look at the past history when they lost to Carolina.
LakeDawg
August 29th, 2011
6:22 pm
What is this, “rain on the parade” day at the AJC?
Seriously #5 is my biggest concern. The concern is does CMR truly believe he can win again. Confidence is a funny thing. It can leave you and when it does you can’t hide it. If CMR isn’t confident, then the players will pick up on that, no matter the platitudes he mouths.
Nub
August 29th, 2011
6:26 pm
It’s go for broke time…. Win the east or start calling Chuckie after the cocks game!!!
juice sourcer
August 29th, 2011
6:29 pm
I take it back after looking at the schedule…only 4 road games against nothing teams….a bowl subdivision team…or whatever the stupid name is…could win 7 games with this schedule.
Destin Dawg
August 29th, 2011
6:29 pm
We have Hutson Mason and Christian Le May and even Nick Marshall all great QB.s
Destin Dawg
August 29th, 2011
6:32 pm
UGA 31. Boise State 17.. UGA 24. S.C. 17… project ” Dome to Dome “.. we’ll win 3 in Atlanta this season … Go Dawgs !!
Prozac Dawg
August 29th, 2011
6:43 pm
@Boise in ATL,
Good post @ 2:56 (I think). Nice observations and no badmouthing.
Tell The Truth
August 29th, 2011
6:48 pm
Are we going to be able to run the ball effectively against Boise and USC? That is the telling story to be told on saturday and a week from saturday.
Begin Construction
August 29th, 2011
6:56 pm
Boise State 55, Georgia 17.
The start of a looooooong season and the beginning of the end for Mark Richt, thank goodness.
Not the pause that refreshes
August 29th, 2011
6:59 pm
The UGA homers are keeping the Kool-Aid factories working 24/7, I see.
Old Gold and White Fan
August 29th, 2011
7:12 pm
Get ready all you fans of muttsville……your season well end no better than 8-4. Out of Boise, SC, Miss St and Tech you’ll go down on 3 of them and no doubt at least 1 other in there along the way. Yeah, yeah….I can hear you all now, “no way in HELL we’re gonna loose to the nerds”, or my all time favorite, “we run this state”. To which I say, “whatever”. A UGA team that went 6-7 last year ranked in preseason top 25???…..over rated as usual. Just how big is the still where you make all that Kool-Aid you folks drink?
Mr. Tater head
August 29th, 2011
7:15 pm
UGA will be burnt toast in their ghetto gear!
Prozac Dawg
August 29th, 2011
7:16 pm
I suffered through watching the 2010 BS – VT game a few days ago just to see if I could calm my nerves re: BS defense.
Their running back (Martin) seems to be the real deal. He’s got a good burst.
I can’t say that I was impressed with the BS O line as much as I was unimpressed with the VT defense. They looked lost and confused. The VT D line finally woke up in the second half and looked better.
The BS D line looked disciplined and played their positions well. Again the VT O line took time for their meds to kick in.
Last year’s game is only relelvant because so BS returns so many starters.
I see the weak spots in BS as the O line ends and the BS secondary.
@Insider,
Don’t give me false hope about our D. I only have so many meds I’m allowed to take.
I think after the first couple of series by each team I will have a much better idea of how many meds I really will need
oompa loompa dawg
August 29th, 2011
7:17 pm
will the midget wear the G gloves?
potato galore
August 29th, 2011
7:20 pm
Boise has a nasy t D. They swarm to the ball. Something UGA hasnt done in a long time. Granthams choke signs wont get it done Im afraid.
Prozac Dawg
August 29th, 2011
7:24 pm
@potato,
They did play their position well.I think I might be up for some kind of award for watching that whole game. I need some Kool Aid
dogdawg
August 29th, 2011
7:25 pm
Yea I agree CMR has forgotten how to win BIG.Could it be the rest of the league has figured out his game plan?The last 3 years it seems the players were not prepared.They came out got punched in the mouth and didn’t punch back!I’m going to the game hope that was one of his changes this year.We will see.
RedandBlackDAWG
August 29th, 2011
7:30 pm
% times Nebraska,
Just exactly why are you on this blog at all, if you are truely a Nebraska fan and not actually a Tech. fan as a lot of people of your ilk are?
The definition of a troll is below.
“troll” refers to an online personality that uses his/her anonymity to “bait” users or turn valid discussions into full-blown arguments.
That about describes you perfectly.
excuse # 9
August 29th, 2011
7:32 pm
Murray wore gloves.
DawgDad
August 29th, 2011
7:32 pm
“Given that Green was the greatest wide receiver in Georgia history”
Cough, cough. Great wide receivers DON’T GET SUSPENDED for stupidity. The team is more important than any one player. When his team needed him last year, he wasn’t there.
Win P
August 29th, 2011
7:33 pm
Lots of references to Boise’s #5 pre season ranking. I remember a pre season ranking of #1 for UGA (2008). That turned out to be a non indicator of the season. Have the “raters” improved…I doubt it.
Ray Goof
August 29th, 2011
7:34 pm
Can I come back now?
POOPDAWG
August 29th, 2011
7:38 pm
BC, it will not be as long of a season as YOUR long saturday night!