What’s wrong with Jason Heyward? It’s a blip in his BABIP
A non-mechanical hug might do the trick. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
Writing for ESPN Insider, Dayn Perry of FanGraphs asks the question many among us have asked: What happened to Jason Heyward? (Link requires registration.) Using the best data known to man and computers, Perry offers this telling snapshot:
Heyward is trending in the wrong direction when it comes to line-drive percentage (17.8 percent in 2010 to 13.9 percent in 2011), infield pop-ups (8.4 percent to 24.7 percent) and batting average on balls in play (.335 to .245). In the case of his declining BABIP, there’s almost certainly some bad luck involved, but the remaining indicators are more troubling.
Additionally, he’s swinging at 44.8 percent of pitches overall, up from 39.4 percent last year; and he’s swinging at 28.7 percent out of the zone after hacking at just 24.2 percent of such offerings. Add it all up and you have a guy who’s hitting fewer line drives and more pop-ups and seems to have lost control of the strike zone.
We’ve noted before that Heyward is swinging more and accomplishing less. (His batting average and on-base percentage tell us that much.) We’ve also noted that this is the truly baffling part. Unlike, say, Jordan Schafer, who has struck out a lot at every level, Heyward arrived in the majors bearing the stamp of a young player who knew the strike zone and could work a count.
Many observers — from Bobby Valentine, who’s a jerk, and Chipper Jones, who’s not — have suggested that Heyward’s “mechanics” have gone, if you will, haywire. That can happen. Ask Dan Uggla. But the bit about “losing control of the strike zone” is the puzzling part. That’s not mechanical. That’s the part young Jason Heyward seemed to have down at age 20.
And now he just turned 22 and is playing behind the journeyman Jose Constanza. Baseball is the strangest of games — again, ask Dan Uggla — but I have to admit this Heyward thing has me baffled. I could not have imagined that the rookie who was so adept at figuring things out would have forgotten how to figure.
(Oh, one thing more: Perry mentions BABIP. That stands for “batting average on balls in play.” As a yardstick, statheads love BABIP. I find it hilarious. Whenever someone mentions BABIP, I want to ask, “What’s his batting average on balls not in play?” Pretty sure that’d be .000.)
Update: I’ve been reliably informed that home runs don’t count as “balls in play.” (Unless, I can only assume, they’re inside-the-park home runs.) So you can have a batting average above .000 on balls not in play. And yes, my eyes are glazing over.
By Mark Bradley
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402 comments Add your comment
Geaux Braves
August 23rd, 2011
5:04 pm
Mark Bradley,
You continue to offer nothing to the journalism world. My 2 year old cousin could’ve written the “article.”
Phillies, Class of The NL
August 23rd, 2011
5:04 pm
The Phillies are obsessed with winning. Its business as usual down at The CBP.
NoWay
August 23rd, 2011
5:04 pm
Phillies = Getting Old
Braves = Young and good for years
Phillie should be back where they belong before long, licker the sewer.
OhioBoy
August 23rd, 2011
5:06 pm
NO MORE PARRISH- I understand and agree with what you’re saying, but in reality Francoeur responded that way and most fans berated him for it. He didn’t want to be sent down, he wanted
to play.
Phillies, Class of The NL
August 23rd, 2011
5:08 pm
I literally don’t see one position at which the lowly braves are superior to the Phillies:
RF – advantage Pence
CF – advantage Victorino
LF – advantage Ibanez
3rd – advantage Polanco
2nd – huge advantage Utley
SS – huge advantage Rollins
1st – gigantic advantage Howard
Starting pitching – please
Bullpen/Closer – potentially a wash but I will take the playoff tested World Series Winning Madson over the rookies the braves have
Catcher – advantage Chooch (slightly less hitting for far superior game calling and runner holding, plus Chooch’s knack for clutch hitting)
Tony
August 23rd, 2011
5:10 pm
He will be traded in the offseason. Probably Toronto. Their next Joe Carter. He will shine. We will regret it. TP got a raw deal. I still think FG is the worst manager in baseball. The Braves are where they are because of the imprint Bobby left on the franchise. FG just gets to sit there and stare. He might as well read the newspaper. Chipper passes on the legacy and what it means to be a Brave and how to win.
dr. obvious
August 23rd, 2011
5:10 pm
he hasn’t been the same since chipper ‘pulled groin’ jones called him out…
Heisenberg
August 23rd, 2011
5:11 pm
Donny Corleone, you cannot factor in the BADA BING without also considering the BADA BOOM (batting average day after being out of moonshine). What else would you go to North Georgia for?
Hillbilly D
August 23rd, 2011
5:13 pm
Last year people were complaining because JH was too patient and took too many pitches. This year they’re complaining that he isn’t patient enough and he doesn’t take enough pitches.
Could just be that the league has adjusted to him and in his quest to adjust, he’s pressing a bit.
I was confused by the way the infield pop-up stat was listed but I assume it means he’s popping up more this year. That’s not a good think but it should be fixable.
Freddie Freeman is doing very well this year but let’s remember, the league is going to adjust to him, too. How he handles that will tell the tale. Baseball is a game of constant adjusting and readjusting.
People also complained the last couple years about Terry Pendleton, until he was moved to another position, and now they complain about Larry Parrish, because he’s the opposite of Pendleton, in their minds. The smart players and coaches ignore the fans, including me. Well, maybe they should have listened to a certain S. Clusters about one guy but that’s water under the bridge.
chuck
August 23rd, 2011
5:16 pm
The pitchers just won’t hit his bat with the ball.
bro
August 23rd, 2011
5:22 pm
If you watch his swing he is late on anything reasonably fast. Thus all the ground outs and popups. Not only is he late with his swing he is so late he can not even hit the ball to the opposite field. His stance causes him to be jammed on most any inside pitch–something Parrish should be able to fix easily if the young man will listen and not pull a frenchy. You have got to get the bat to the ball. If you can’t do that then you are just another 220 hitter. Not even good enough for a shorstop these days.
billy
August 23rd, 2011
5:24 pm
Keep working Jason!!!!!!
Wink
August 23rd, 2011
5:26 pm
Say Hey what up with the Kid… J-Hey! Sophmore jinx hey!
Frenchy
August 23rd, 2011
5:29 pm
Listen to Mr. Parrish, young man.
BravesFan
August 23rd, 2011
5:36 pm
Love the Utley vs Uggla huge advantage. Well let’s see:
Utley BA HR RBI OBP
Regular Season .274 9 38 .356
Uggla BA HR RBI OBP
Regular Season .232 30 66 .300
Plus Uggla has 18 HRs and raised his average 51 points in less than 6 weeks.
Let’s take 3rd base:
PoloncoBA HR RBI OBP
Regular Season .278 4 40 .333
ChipperBA HR RBI OBP
Regular Season .276 12 57 .349
The bullpen of the Phillies SUCK. OFlarety, Venters and Kimbrell wipe the floor with the Phillies. It’s a joke of a comparison. And your OLD pitchers which hopefully will have a couple of years left in them after this one compare well to Hudson, Hanson and Beachy. Doc is all you have.
Your team is old and getting older. You have NOTHING in the wings, and will rely totally on overpaid vets for years to come, while our 20yo ROY is playing first, a 6 time All-star catcher that dwarfs whomever that catcher you have.
Phillies Catcher (whathisname)
BA HR RBI OBP
Regular Season .273 5 30 .368
McCannBA HR RBI OBP
Regular Season .296 20 58 .369
Phillies combined ERA
3.07
Braves
3.31
The Phillies starting pitching surely cannot even begin to compare with the Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz era for sure. That’s a joke to even discuss it.
Oh, and BTW on 1st base
HowardBA HR RBI OBP
Regular Season .253 26 96 .341
Freeman (the rookie and gold glover)
BA HR RBI OBP
Regular Season .293 18 63 .356
Not bad. Oh and the Phillies have LOST 3 games in the standings in the past 8 days. 91/2 games up, now 6 1/2 games up. Wow, you get a lot for $200m. I think you are getting ripped off compared to the Braves less than $90M payroll.
Paddy
August 23rd, 2011
5:44 pm
Eddie Haas believed in advanced metrics. See where did that get him?. Never understood why he never managed in the big leagues again. Always thought he was way better than Eddie Stanky, Vedie Himsl andl Elvin Tappe as a big league manager. Guess he was ahead of his time. Skip Ca rey loved the guy. Just wish we could ask Skip about all those great memories of Eddie Haas!!!!!!! Those of us that listened to the Eddie Haas pre-game show grew to admire his genius!
Hillbilly D
August 23rd, 2011
5:50 pm
I always felt Eddie Haas got a bad rap. The Atlanta writers had it in for him from day one because they loved Joe Torre and he wasn’t Joe. The people who followed him had no more success than he did, until John Schuerholz came to town.
Rowsdower
August 23rd, 2011
5:56 pm
@Phillies, Class of The NL – Nice analysis, homer. How lets take a more objective approach:
C – McCann .876 OPS – Chooch – .754
1B – Freeman .828 – Howard – .820
2B – Uggla – .761 – Utley – .809
SS – Gonzalez .602 – Rollins – .743
3B – Jones – .811 – Polanco – .677
LF – Prado – .731 – Ibanez – .691
CF – Bourn – .728 – Victorino – .928
RF – Constanza – .904 – Pence – .852
You still sure about your assessment? I see 3 positions where you are better. One of those is 2B and if you think Uggla’s season numbers still apply now that he’s on fire (.955 in July 1.193 in August), that’s more homerism. I would say offensively the Braves are superior (and the numbers bear that out) at 6 positions. Victorino and Rollins are the only 2 that are performing better than their counterparts. Constanza will probably cool, but right now he’s outperforming Pence.
The defense is even, .988 for Phillies .986 for the Braves.
Starting pitching wise, your staff is the best in baseball, but we aint shabby either. Our bullpen is head and shoulders better than yours. I like our chances…
b.o.b.
August 23rd, 2011
6:16 pm
shut up mark bradley jayhey still got it just a bad season
Hillbilly D
August 23rd, 2011
6:27 pm
I hope the Braves beat out the Phillies but when he’s healthy Chase Utley is a 5 tool player. Uggla isn’t, so Utley is the better player overall.
Hardy
August 23rd, 2011
6:29 pm
Stats are for losers…….. I like winning games.
Old Dawg Fan
August 23rd, 2011
6:29 pm
A big ego and even bigger hype make for a bad year when you can’t back it up.
Costanza is the real deal-trade JH-is that simple.
Rowsdower
August 23rd, 2011
6:31 pm
@Hardy – Just discrediting that jackass Phillies troll.
Brad
August 23rd, 2011
6:34 pm
If the numbers hurt your head then don’t worry about them. But you denying them does not lessen their value.
Ted’s Head. Do you still think OBP is idiotic? That stat has not been popular very long, but is not widely accepted. I don’t think babip belongs on the back of a card. But it is a a verifiable statistic that can be normed and a bell curve can be produced. It is absolutely a tool that can be used to assist in statistical evaluation.
Hillbilly D
August 23rd, 2011
6:39 pm
OBP is a good statistic, in my opinion. It’s probably the most important statistic for a lead-off man. OPS is the one that I think is a stat just for a stat’s sake. I’m sure I’m in the minority on that, though.
Rowsdower
August 23rd, 2011
6:48 pm
OPS is a more defined metric than OBP because it adds Slugging %. As I said last night, I think we should have a metric called OPS+SB. A stolen base is just as critical to scoring as any other aspect of the game. Why should a metric not calculate a base for an SB but count that base on a extra base hit. I submit that a single and SB is the exact same as a double from a scoring perspective.
This new metric would better measure complete play rather than reward power guys because they hit a lot of HRs and doubles. Of course it would make guys like Bourn cost more in arbitration and contract extensions too…
Hardy
August 23rd, 2011
6:51 pm
Its a Catch 22 for the Phillies.
If they win the NLCS it will be because they were supposed to because they bought their way to it.
If they lose they are chokers.
Robert
August 23rd, 2011
7:24 pm
As a rookie, JHey had patience and plate discipline that were truly rare for his age
Sometime in late May or early June, he went into a slight slump, at which point Bobby Cox publicly stated that Heyward needed to be more aggressive
Since then, he is hitting about .220 and striking out far more often than he walks
Heyward’s problem is that he paid heed to the advice of an idiot
Hillbilly D
August 23rd, 2011
7:24 pm
The statistic I like is Runs Produced. That is (Runs Scored + RBI’s) – HR’s = Runs Produced.
That’s what wins games and a run scored and a run driven in have equal value, in my mind.
Robert
August 23rd, 2011
7:27 pm
“But seriously, Braves are getting healthy and Phils could be opening up a window of opportunity. Perhaps a role reversal from 2010 is coming.”
A window of opportunity for what?
We are not playing to win a division title
Sunshine Falcon
August 23rd, 2011
8:03 pm
I just hope he doesn’t end up like Francoeur.
Jeff would not listen to advice here and had to leave town, to get back on track.
It would be terrible to see the same thing happen to JHey.
Rowsdower
August 23rd, 2011
8:13 pm
@Hillbilly D – Oh, I agree. I even threw out a simple Run Production % that takes runs+RBI/ABs. Constanza is at 34%. Heyward is at 14%.
Runs win games, not stats.
urban redneck
August 23rd, 2011
8:47 pm
the same people that want to trade uggla wanted to release uggly two months ago. d-bags.
Ralph
August 23rd, 2011
9:00 pm
Don’t know whats wrong with Jason but I just hope they don’t waste a roster spot on him for the post season.
Fred
August 23rd, 2011
9:05 pm
Great timing Mark. Haha
JHeyer
August 23rd, 2011
9:05 pm
That SLAM is for you Mark B!
Flowery Branch Yellow Jacket
August 23rd, 2011
9:06 pm
Perhaps tonight’s grand slam will be just what it takes to bring him out of his “funk”.
A Brave in Minnesota
August 23rd, 2011
9:09 pm
Ummmmmm….about that Heyward kid…….
….TAKE THAT!!!!
Time to go to Denny’s for that GRAND SLAM!!!
M10
August 23rd, 2011
9:14 pm
Its amazes me how one year you guys want to cheer for the guy and time he goes through a slump you wanna get rid of him just pathetic.
shane
August 23rd, 2011
9:20 pm
Who said anything was wrong with him? He was just waiting for the bases to be loaded!
Laughing
August 23rd, 2011
9:22 pm
GRAND SLAM for J-Hey! Take that, J-Haters!
A Brave in Minnesota
August 23rd, 2011
9:28 pm
Heyward will be fine and he knows it……….it’s just taking him longer than most to make adjustments, but I think he’s going to pull an Uggla in September/October just when we need him the most!!
Von Trapp
August 23rd, 2011
9:49 pm
Heyward served serious CROW tonight……………..J haters need to wipe das mouths after eating so much of das CROW……………..keep serving das Crow Heyward…………..Keep serving it
Laughing
August 23rd, 2011
11:18 pm
Von Trapp August 23rd, 2011 9:49 pm
Heyward served serious CROW tonight……………..J haters need to wipe das mouths after eating so much of das CROW……………..keep serving das Crow Heyward…………..Keep serving it
Amen, Von Trapp!
anotherdawg
August 24th, 2011
12:32 am
Well, it’s a good thing Frank Wren doesn’t base his decisions on the negative advice coming off these blogs. If he did, Jason would have been traded, or sent down to AAA before tonights game. Now if the Cubs were to offer Aramis Ramirez, wow that guy can hit!
Scott
August 24th, 2011
2:09 am
Jason Heyward is to Freddie Freeman as Jeff Francour is to Brian McCann.
DeepDiver
August 24th, 2011
5:10 am
3 hits, 4 RBIs, GRAND SLAM. Heyward is an integral part of the Braves’ future. Larry Jones for hitting coach.
red&black
August 24th, 2011
6:24 am
you’re right PMC, he’s not a bad player, but he’s not a good one either. He is however “most excellent” at the double play (hitting into them)……He’s”USELESS” maybe they can trade him for a bucket of balls, or used 83′ Camry………..I bet if we throw in “Boozer” (D-Lowe) we “might” be able to get both the balls and the Camry…….
And speaking of “Boozer” you can stick a fork in him, cause he’s done…………
And what’s with this giving guys in the bullpen “rest”. They only work one inning vs starters who go 5,6,7 innings with a much higher pitch counts.
chief pitchanono
August 24th, 2011
5:26 pm
We can all disect Heywards decline a million ways, and chances are it does have multiple contributeing factors, health, bad mechanics, its obvious pitchers have found a whole in his swing and he has not been able to make the adjustment yet. It doesn’t mean he won’t. It is just the way the game is played, if you have a weakness it will be exploited untill you make the adjustment. I truly believe he is now working on it which is huge for him, because it seemed like with all his success that he has had throughout his entire baseball life it might have taken a while for him to admit that there was really something there that needed to be corrected. Seeing him hit the ball the other way is the best sign that he had begun to make a change. He will be a great player but he has had to go through the learning curve just like everyone else. I think this season will just be a blip on the radar at the end of his hall of fame career. Go Braves!!
Tuckerbrave
August 24th, 2011
11:03 pm
10:46 pm EDT
Cubs 3
Braves 2…………….J-Hey comes thru again……………top of the 9th……..man on………..called 3rd strike………………so don’t send him down to AAA……..and please don’t trade him…….the boy’s been a cash cow for me. I’ve got my bookie on speed dial, as soon as he comes up to bat I’m on the phone to louie…..yeah he let me down last night with slam thing, but the “vast majority” of the time he comes thru for me with an out of some kind……I’m way ahead in terms of winnings….I’m playin with house money now baby…….