What’s wrong with Jason Heyward? It’s a blip in his BABIP
A non-mechanical hug might do the trick. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
Writing for ESPN Insider, Dayn Perry of FanGraphs asks the question many among us have asked: What happened to Jason Heyward? (Link requires registration.) Using the best data known to man and computers, Perry offers this telling snapshot:
Heyward is trending in the wrong direction when it comes to line-drive percentage (17.8 percent in 2010 to 13.9 percent in 2011), infield pop-ups (8.4 percent to 24.7 percent) and batting average on balls in play (.335 to .245). In the case of his declining BABIP, there’s almost certainly some bad luck involved, but the remaining indicators are more troubling.
Additionally, he’s swinging at 44.8 percent of pitches overall, up from 39.4 percent last year; and he’s swinging at 28.7 percent out of the zone after hacking at just 24.2 percent of such offerings. Add it all up and you have a guy who’s hitting fewer line drives and more pop-ups and seems to have lost control of the strike zone.
We’ve noted before that Heyward is swinging more and accomplishing less. (His batting average and on-base percentage tell us that much.) We’ve also noted that this is the truly baffling part. Unlike, say, Jordan Schafer, who has struck out a lot at every level, Heyward arrived in the majors bearing the stamp of a young player who knew the strike zone and could work a count.
Many observers — from Bobby Valentine, who’s a jerk, and Chipper Jones, who’s not — have suggested that Heyward’s “mechanics” have gone, if you will, haywire. That can happen. Ask Dan Uggla. But the bit about “losing control of the strike zone” is the puzzling part. That’s not mechanical. That’s the part young Jason Heyward seemed to have down at age 20.
And now he just turned 22 and is playing behind the journeyman Jose Constanza. Baseball is the strangest of games — again, ask Dan Uggla — but I have to admit this Heyward thing has me baffled. I could not have imagined that the rookie who was so adept at figuring things out would have forgotten how to figure.
(Oh, one thing more: Perry mentions BABIP. That stands for “batting average on balls in play.” As a yardstick, statheads love BABIP. I find it hilarious. Whenever someone mentions BABIP, I want to ask, “What’s his batting average on balls not in play?” Pretty sure that’d be .000.)
Update: I’ve been reliably informed that home runs don’t count as “balls in play.” (Unless, I can only assume, they’re inside-the-park home runs.) So you can have a batting average above .000 on balls not in play. And yes, my eyes are glazing over.
By Mark Bradley
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402 comments Add your comment
ab initio
August 23rd, 2011
2:50 pm
Get the dip out of his swing and he’ll drive the ball a lot better.
It’s easy to see his swing is not fluid, nor does it generate power.
Parrish needs to get the hell out of Atlanta.
ijudgenot
August 23rd, 2011
2:50 pm
journalist jimmy smith
August 23rd, 2011
9:33 am
“a bad toe can end a career. that’s what happened to dizzy dean. jason heyward always looks like his shoes are too tight. he should also lose the batting gloves because he spends most of his time at bat fooling with his gloves. where his toes point has a lot to do with where he hits the ball. look it up.”
Dizzy Dean changed his pitching mechanics because of a hurt toe and messed up his arm for good. Thats what ruined his career, bad arm not toe. I think you are on to something about the glove adjustments. This is a quirk a lot of players have after each pitch whether they swung at last pitch or not, totally unnecessary. I like Bourn’s approach. Once he gets in the batters box he establishes his back foot and never moves it unless pitcher brushes him back. He stands in the batters box between pitches. The back foot’s approximate distance from the plate is the distance he knows allows him to handle the inside pitch and still handle the pitch to the outerhalf of plate(line drive to left field)Heyward’s position changes considerably from pitch to pitch. Constanza does not stand in batter’s box like Bourn between pitches, but draws a box when he first gets into batter’s box that gives him a reference point to judge the distance from plate each time he gets back into box.
extremus
August 23rd, 2011
3:00 pm
While there is obviously a lot of speculation as to why Jason Heyward’s production has spiraled downward since the middle of last season, I have to say the change goes back to right after he had the thumb injury. It’s indisputable that before then he was driving the ball with abandon and was on pace to lead all rookies in average and power numbers; since then he strikes out far more often and rolls over those same pitches to the second base side of the field.
Is Heyward perhaps still hurting and refusing to share that information with his team in an effort to contribute? Did the discomfort cease but cause changes in his swing that are apparently very hard for him to let go of? Why is it that Freddie Freeman has learned to adjust to the inside pitch (not to mention lefties) with increasing aptitude in a single year at the MLB level while Heyward has the earmarks of a player who needs significantly more time in the minors?
I don’t have the answers to these questions; as with most folks here on the boards, anything I say would be pure conjecture. But the Braves probably know, and certainly Jason Heyward himself knows what the problem is. The next question he and they must answer is, “How do we salvage Jason Heyward’s career before it’s too late?”.
No, I don’t have that answer either (though I’ve suggested more time at Gwinnett or wherever he might get one-on-one help from someone who can get through to him; ironically Chipper Jones may be that guy, and I sure hope so).
In the meantime, I think future instances like this would have less of a chance of developing if the Braves instituted one simple (break it and you’re fined) rule: NO HEADFIRST SLIDES.
dap01
August 23rd, 2011
3:12 pm
Shut up about Francour!
up north
August 23rd, 2011
3:19 pm
He just seems lethargic all around. He is a young guy, and should have made it to that ball that Uggla over ran in last night’s game.
The Gohost of Jeff Francouer
August 23rd, 2011
3:20 pm
Just kidding, of course! I think Jay-Hey is still adjusting to MLB pitching, and perhaps, MLB pitching has already adjusted to him. Ego is a large part of the game, and having never donned a uniform and crossed the white line, I suspect MLB pitchers are likely to challenge young hitters in the hope that they (pitcher) establish a strike zone. Heyward was a disciplined hitter, and during his first at bats, he made many a pitcher pay. But, MLB pitchers (and scouting reports) compile a lot of data, and with each at bat, I suspect the bad guys (pitchers) get a better idea of any batter’s weaknesses – just as positon players adjust to account for a hitter’s strenghts, pitchers most certainly adjust as well. Which brings us to mechanics. Throw in a couple injuries to “mechanical components” (wrist, thumb, back) and I suppose you have the makings of a slump. Toss in some mental pressure and well, there you have it. Throw in “George Constanza” and multiply the pressure. Throw in a pennant race and, well; Jay-Hey will just have to work on everything, and make the most of his opportunities. It’s the difference between the minors and the majors. ‘Nuf said. Go get ‘em Jay-Hey.
bill
August 23rd, 2011
3:22 pm
Jason has a fragile psyche and he had quite a few called out on strikes . He was told to be more agressive so now he is swinging at pitches that are out of the strike zone and for which he has no confidence he can hit. He has always had a long swing and he looks totally confused at times. One pitch he is flailing on the next pitch he hits a long homer. He was a rookie who got worked over because he is a player who knows the strike zone better than most umpires and I think he has had trouble adjusting to the strike zone which is constantly moving from game to game. Its hard for him to be likechipper. When chipper gets called out on strikes he gives the umpires that I am a hall of famer and you are a pretender. You can call it a strike but everyone including GOD knows you sir are just wrong. Jason can’t do that.
Alaska Braves Fan
August 23rd, 2011
3:22 pm
To repeat a comment I made on DOB’s “quotes” blog:
With regard to Jason Heyward: First, my knowledge and experience in helping young baseball players develop is nonexistent. I suspect that is largely true, too, of most of the folks who are complaining of the way the Braves are dealing with his troubles. Let the pros do their work. They have the tools, and we don’t. It’s not an exact science and their efforts may not work, but the odds are much, much better with the pros than with a bunch of dilettantes like most of us.
In the final analysis, Heyward will have the grit to find the way to perform at a high level, or he won’t. It isn’t the coaches who are finally accountable for his play, it’s he. Personally, I see the talent, and I think he will have a pretty good career. But, this year is done for him, and he will have to overcome his propensity to injury and to overreacting to injury if he’s to transform his potential into performance.
One last thought: Even if it actually were a possibility, I never would accept a position as an MLB hitting coach. That position seems to attract the most irrational and wildly manic comments of any position in baseball. Last year Pendleton; this year Parrish. Posh and nonsense!!
ABF
NoWay
August 23rd, 2011
3:22 pm
I still don’t get the Francoeur comparisons with Heyward. Jason isn’t 1/2 the player Francoeur was. PMC, where do you get Jeff had 3 bad years? He actually had one bad year in Atlanta, and even then he hit 20 points higher than Heyward and drove in 71 runs. Compare Heyward to someone else, he isn’t close to Francoeur. Francoeur in 4 years for the Braves had 73 HR’s and 324 RBI’s. His 4 year average per year in Atlanta: .273 BA, 18 HR’s and 81 RBI’s. I would take that back in a heart beat, plus having one of the best defensive right fielders in the league.
Dr. Heathcliff Huxtable
August 23rd, 2011
3:23 pm
Thank Goodness that Atlanta’s CRIMINAL Element has not turned out en masse at Turner Field to support & worship Jason Heyward like they did with that drug-using, STD-infected dogkiller Vick.
Clay
August 23rd, 2011
3:26 pm
The announcers of last night’s game put it well: “It’s like there’s a hole in his bat.”
Heyward appeared last night to have trouble catching up to an 89 mph fast ball.
submariner
August 23rd, 2011
3:26 pm
It’s the second coming of Jeff Fancoeur. Sorry dap01.
NoWay
August 23rd, 2011
3:27 pm
Submariner, See my comments above.
uhoh
August 23rd, 2011
3:29 pm
He needs to quit trying to pull every pitch. It looks like he try to swing out and around on the outside pitch-even it he hit’s it, won’t go anywhere. He did drive one to left center in the last home stand-needs to do that more.
Hard to fault Uggla now but it looks like Hey and Ugg are both really tight at the plate. Watch Chipper, he looks like the bat is about to fall out of his hand instead of squeezing sawdust out of it.
R-E-L-A-X at the plate.
Dr. Phil
August 23rd, 2011
3:33 pm
Perhaps Jason has been listening too much to the statisticians and swing analyists. Mays and Mantle both maintained the philosophy, “see the ball, hit the ball.” Perhaps some AAA ball would have helped Jason’s confidence. I believe Jason will recover. BTW, Bobby Valentine may be a jerk, but he is a pretty good commentator and a great improvement over Joe Morgan.
Mental Giant
August 23rd, 2011
3:35 pm
Tom, you’re a mental giant as well! Ever heard of a little thing called sarcasm? Well, study up bud.
journalist jimmy smith
August 23rd, 2011
3:37 pm
ijudgenot, a bad toe is exactly what happened to dizzy dean. toes turn to arms and arms turn to mush. journalists know these things. if jason heyward has to wear gloves he needs some with some elastic in them and no velcro. there is no velcro in baseball.
Bravado
August 23rd, 2011
3:39 pm
Amen, Dap01
Seriously
August 23rd, 2011
3:39 pm
I may be wrong but Heywards attitude says it all. He doesnt want to be there nor do I think he wants to be playing ball. It is obvious in how he carries himself throughout the game.
augusta dawg
August 23rd, 2011
3:45 pm
The difference in Freeman and Heyward..Freemans is getting better with time…Heyward is getting worse and worse and worse.
Too Tough 44
August 23rd, 2011
3:47 pm
Heyward has gone haywire….for sure,, I am glad Freddie G is playing the players that are being productive with the bat!
Alaska Braves Fan
August 23rd, 2011
3:48 pm
Seriously: Of all the comments I have read about Heyward, yours is most off-base. I’m not highly optimistic about him, but you are wrong. The biggest positive Jason has going for him is his desire to excel. That seems clear to me. He does make an effort to play within himself and avoids histrionics – all good stuff. Of course, I could be wrong.
ABF
Dr. Heathcliff Huxtable
August 23rd, 2011
3:55 pm
Is Jason Heyward’s heart REALLY & TRULY into playing baseball?
When Heyward is in the outfield, does she daydream about going to medical school, dribbling a basketball or being a hip-hop recording “artist” instead?
ChrisfromSacramento, Ca
August 23rd, 2011
3:56 pm
Heyward sucks. Get his ass out of a Braves uniform. Insert sxcuses now. He will NEVER BE GOOD. Jeff was better and that is sad.
Hurtward = Eric Anthony = BUST
The Truth
August 23rd, 2011
3:57 pm
Heyward dives down and towards the plate with every swing. It’s absurdly obvious to anyone who watches. He needs to go back to Mississippi and get his swing back, because the Braves’ hitting coach clearly isn’t doing his job.
ijudgenot
August 23rd, 2011
4:14 pm
Heyward is having some problems at the plate that we have all commented on, but this “he doesn’t care”, “he is lazy because he does not seem to be running fast”, or “he does not want to be there” comments are way off. You can not project how you as an individual would handle a situation onto another. Just because he does not throw his helmet into the ground when he strikes out or flies out, or breaks his bat in half by slamming it into the ground does not men the kid does not care. Maybe his parents taught him to meet failure and success with the same expression on your face. Just because the young man is 6′6″ and his long strides makes it appear that he is not running as hard as a Constanza who’s short strides look like pistons in a 57 Chevy, does not mean that he is not hustling with all he’s got. Many who make these statements would have labled Hank Aaron a lazy ball player who did not care, because he rarely showed emotion and his strides seemed effortless also. Before the shouts, I am not comparing the baseball talents of Aaron and Heyward, just their outward demeanor.
Not Applicable
August 23rd, 2011
4:17 pm
Was Jason Heyward on a Sports Illustrated cover or in a featured story (with Freeman)? I’m not superstitious, but I’m just thinking…
Who is Gault? He's a Freekin' Fictional Character - GROW UP!
August 23rd, 2011
4:21 pm
I noticed the same thing – he swings down for some reason. That said, I think it is too early to give up on him. He needs to be in a line up to work through his issues. If he performs like this next year, however, then it’s time to send him back down to double or triple A for a good long stint.
Who is Gault? A Fictional Character - GROW UP EINSTEIN!
August 23rd, 2011
4:24 pm
I think Jason needs to stay in the line up to work through this. That said, he needs to go down to Gwinnett next year if his first month or so is like this!
Stinger2
August 23rd, 2011
4:27 pm
To anyone who has posted negative comments about Francouer: Are you aware that he just signed a
13 million contract extension with the Royals. I doubt he cares what Atlanta fans think about him now.
Stinger2
August 23rd, 2011
4:40 pm
For anyone who is not aware: Jeff Freancouer recently signed a 13 million 2 yr. contract extension with the Royals. I doubt if he cares what Braves fans think of him now.
Phillies, Class of The NL
August 23rd, 2011
4:41 pm
In reality, what does it matter. You are still playing second fiddle to The All-World Philadelphia Phillies. Now that’s a baseball team my hillbilly friends.
bvillebaron
August 23rd, 2011
4:41 pm
Chris from Sacramento:
Is there any chance we could get you to stop making ignorant posts and get YOUR sorry #%s out of here sooner and permanently? I’m giving odds that we can’t!
extremus
August 23rd, 2011
4:41 pm
Two words: WINTER BALL. Since the Braves opted not to send him to Gwinnett for awhile this year, this is NOT an upcoming offseason where Jason Heyward needs to kick back and take a prolonged vacation. Not only for the Braves’ sake but for his own career’s sake. He needs to utilize every possible means and opportunity to get back on track.
Cable Guy
August 23rd, 2011
4:43 pm
Jason takes the best pitch of his at bat, meaning the first one. Then the pitchers throw him garbage low or away because they know he can;t hit them. He needs to shorten and level his swing and stay on the pitch, instead of swinging that long, loopy swing.
Phillies, Class of The NL
August 23rd, 2011
4:43 pm
Heyward has more holes in his game than our own Domonic Brown, but at least we have the sense to send Brown to the minors to work on his game. That is how a class organization operates. The lowly bravos could learn something from The Baseball Juggernaut that is The Philadelphia Phillies.
Phillies, Class of The NL
August 23rd, 2011
4:44 pm
Do braves fans STILL think McCann is a better catcher than The Mighty Chooch? Ha – laughable.
richie_rich1986
August 23rd, 2011
4:49 pm
Isn’t this interesting. Frenchy and Bmac were both really good friends. One is obviously not here with us anymore and the other well you can say he’s the best catcher in the MLB right now. Heyward and Freddy are good friends and lets just say, Freddy is looking like he’s going to win the ROY and Heyward, hopefully if we have to trade him we get somebody better than Ryan Church.
Tom
August 23rd, 2011
4:50 pm
For the last time quit comparing JasonH to Frenchy, it’s not fair to JasonH! A better comparison of skills and accomplishments would be to some one like McLouth. A decent player who seems to be injuried alot of the time. Sometimes people like to forget, Frenchy in his 2nd and 3rd years, played in 162 games( I guess it might have to do with his football mentality)!! There is 162 games in a season, right? Sorry, MentalGiant, perhaps you should use your real first name, just a suggestion!
richie_rich1986
August 23rd, 2011
4:51 pm
@phillies class of NL,
If yal are they class why are you even wasting your time on writing on a Braves blog? Very classy there…
Phillies, Class of The NL
August 23rd, 2011
4:51 pm
Fast-forward to the playoffs. The Braves will get the lowly WildCard, they will NOT sellout their playoff games (once again), and they will get bounced in the first-round (most likely a sweep ending in Game 3 at a half-empty Turner field) by the Milwaukee Brewers. Heyward will bat 1 for 12 with his lone hit in a meaningless 8th inning of Game 3 as the lowly Braves trail 9-2. The remaining 6,000 fans in attendance will lustily boo the kid with the hitched swing. braves season OVER.
Phillies, Class of The NL
August 23rd, 2011
4:53 pm
@richie – I like come down here every now and again and see how the other half lives, if you know what I mean…
bvillebaron
August 23rd, 2011
4:53 pm
Phillies, Class of the NL:
You mean class of the NL and All World just like last year against the Giants? As I mentioned the other day, the reason why you and the other Phillies lurkers continuously post here and try to convince us that the Phils are this juggernaut is to mask your insecurity about the pending playoffs and concern that your fantastic regular season will go up in smoke again this year just like it did last year to the Giants.
Do us all a favor and get back to us in October if they actually win the World Series. In the meantime, spare us all your blather.
NO MORE PARRISH
August 23rd, 2011
4:55 pm
This is one of the many problems I have with Parrish as hitting coach. Chipper spends extra time with Heyward over Parrish. A good hitting coach would be able to help through this. But honestly, kinda hard to feel sorry for Heyward because he does not seem to care. A real star would demand to play and not take being benched like he has. Would like to see more fight in him and hope he bounces back next year WITH A NEW HITTING COACH.
Phillies, Class of The NL
August 23rd, 2011
4:56 pm
No doubt The Mighty Phillies were disappointed to not win The Series last year. As the Giants flounder this year, the Phillies continue with their usual, workman-like Excellence. The Trophy will be back in its rightful place on South Broad St. come November.
TruthSeeker
August 23rd, 2011
4:57 pm
Heyward may not live up to the massive expectations we had set for him, but he won’t be another Francoeur. Heyward has a great approach at the plate, although it hasn’t been as good this year as it was last year. Francoeur was a hacker who didn’t understand the value of taking a walk.
Heyward’s problems are more mechanical than mental, which means they’re easier to fix. He’ll be fine.
Heisenberg
August 23rd, 2011
4:58 pm
I see where Phillies put Cole Hamels on the DL and called up Pete Orr to take his roster spot. I hope that means Orr will be inserted into the starting rotation. But seriously, Braves are getting healthy and Phils could be opening up a window of opportunity. Perhaps a role reversal from 2010 is coming.
On another note, I like reading other folks thoughts but when I see a post longer than a DOB blog I scroll past it. Please keep it short.
Donny Corleone
August 23rd, 2011
4:59 pm
Has anyone factored his BADA BING (Batting Average the Day After Being In North Georgia)? I’ll bet that will shine some light on his situation. Fuhgeddaboudit.
keepinitreal
August 23rd, 2011
4:59 pm
Phillies fans continuing to be obsessed with the Braves…nothing new there.
Phillies, Class of The NL
August 23rd, 2011
5:02 pm
I’m looking at the lineups for both teams, and I can’t find even one position at which the lowly braves are better than The Mighty Philadelphia Phillies.
RF – advantage Pence
CF – advantage Victorino
LF – advantage Ibanez
3rd – big advantage Polanco
2nd – huge advantage Utley
SS – huge advantage Rollins
1st – gigantic advantage Howard
Starting Pitching – obvious
Bullpen/Closer – wash, but I’ll take the seasoned, World Series ring wearing Madson and Bastardo over the rookies the bravos have.
Catcher – advantage Chooch (slightly less hitting for far superior game-calling, runner holding and he’s the clutchest hitter in the Majors)