What’s wrong with Jason Heyward? It’s a blip in his BABIP
A non-mechanical hug might do the trick. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
Writing for ESPN Insider, Dayn Perry of FanGraphs asks the question many among us have asked: What happened to Jason Heyward? (Link requires registration.) Using the best data known to man and computers, Perry offers this telling snapshot:
Heyward is trending in the wrong direction when it comes to line-drive percentage (17.8 percent in 2010 to 13.9 percent in 2011), infield pop-ups (8.4 percent to 24.7 percent) and batting average on balls in play (.335 to .245). In the case of his declining BABIP, there’s almost certainly some bad luck involved, but the remaining indicators are more troubling.
Additionally, he’s swinging at 44.8 percent of pitches overall, up from 39.4 percent last year; and he’s swinging at 28.7 percent out of the zone after hacking at just 24.2 percent of such offerings. Add it all up and you have a guy who’s hitting fewer line drives and more pop-ups and seems to have lost control of the strike zone.
We’ve noted before that Heyward is swinging more and accomplishing less. (His batting average and on-base percentage tell us that much.) We’ve also noted that this is the truly baffling part. Unlike, say, Jordan Schafer, who has struck out a lot at every level, Heyward arrived in the majors bearing the stamp of a young player who knew the strike zone and could work a count.
Many observers — from Bobby Valentine, who’s a jerk, and Chipper Jones, who’s not — have suggested that Heyward’s “mechanics” have gone, if you will, haywire. That can happen. Ask Dan Uggla. But the bit about “losing control of the strike zone” is the puzzling part. That’s not mechanical. That’s the part young Jason Heyward seemed to have down at age 20.
And now he just turned 22 and is playing behind the journeyman Jose Constanza. Baseball is the strangest of games — again, ask Dan Uggla — but I have to admit this Heyward thing has me baffled. I could not have imagined that the rookie who was so adept at figuring things out would have forgotten how to figure.
(Oh, one thing more: Perry mentions BABIP. That stands for “batting average on balls in play.” As a yardstick, statheads love BABIP. I find it hilarious. Whenever someone mentions BABIP, I want to ask, “What’s his batting average on balls not in play?” Pretty sure that’d be .000.)
Update: I’ve been reliably informed that home runs don’t count as “balls in play.” (Unless, I can only assume, they’re inside-the-park home runs.) So you can have a batting average above .000 on balls not in play. And yes, my eyes are glazing over.
By Mark Bradley
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402 comments Add your comment
joliet jim
August 23rd, 2011
2:06 pm
j heys probably more hurt than letting on is 1 reason. 2 its his hands he needs to keep them up,in and back..start trying what freeman did when he started hitting “stay up the middle”
captguitarman
August 23rd, 2011
2:06 pm
Now I’m just a loser on a blog all day. I still play softball with 70 year old women sometimes.
George Constanza
August 23rd, 2011
2:06 pm
It’s shrinkage. Haven’t you ever heard of shrinkage!
captguitarman
August 23rd, 2011
2:08 pm
“I helped me to focus only on the ball and to practice hitting balls in every part of the strke zone.”
If you say so. English please.
BravesFan
August 23rd, 2011
2:08 pm
You really cannot even compare the success of Jeff Francouer and Jason Heyward. For example for Francouer:
2005 .300 average in 70 games 14 HR, 45 RBI
2006 . 260 average in 162 games 29 HR, 103 RBI
2007 .293 average in 162 games, 19 HR, 105 RBI
2008 .239 average in 155 games, 11 HR, 71 RBI
Now take into account that Francouer was a free swinger who had lot’s of strikeouts. In 2009 the Braves felt he had lost confidence and mechanics and traded him. This year in 474 plate appearances he has only struck out 99 times, still high but he is hitting .275, 15 HR and 67 RBI’s with 19 SB’s and has a great assit record for outfielders, one of the best in the majors. This was enough to get him a 2 year, 14M contract extension with the Royals.
I believe Heyward has great promise, but you cannot play a player that is a burden in the lineup. He has to get his head straight first and foremost. Does Heyward have heart? Based upon Chipper’s comments when Heyward was sittiing because of an undiagnosed shoulder injury, Chipper said everyone plays with pain, and even though not referring directly to him, everyone knows what he meant. Also, Heyward has made a good many errors in right field this year as well. Only time will tell, but I don’t see him as a Francouer, he’s not that good.
Jeff Francoeur
August 23rd, 2011
2:09 pm
Shouldn’t have got rid of me. Rifle arm, good for 90 RBIs this year and I’m batting 50 points higher than your next Henry Aaron.
ChrisfromSacramento, Ca
August 23rd, 2011
2:09 pm
Blah Blah Blah,
All you excuse makers and apologist. Comparing Hurtward to Uggla is stupid.
captguitarman
August 23rd, 2011
2:10 pm
I play guitar on my sailboat.
ChrisfromSacramento, Ca
August 23rd, 2011
2:10 pm
Look at the back of Ugglas baseball card there is a track record. Heyward had two good months. Heyward is a bust. Sooner you all deal with it the sooner I hope the Braves get rid of him
BravesFan
August 23rd, 2011
2:10 pm
BTW,,Francouer actually in his career is a .270 hitter, with 116 HR’s and 532 RBI’s. On HR’s that is approx 8 behind McCann and on RBI’s he actually has 16 more in his career. It’s a good comparison considering they began in the same month in the same year. In my opinion they gave up on Francouer way too early.
Nolee
August 23rd, 2011
2:10 pm
Braves should trade Heyward.
Nate McOut
August 23rd, 2011
2:13 pm
If you’re going to kick me to the curb Fredi, I wish you would just get it over with. I’ll go back to Pittsburgh where I’m appreciated. McCutcheon, watch out, that’s my centerfield!
Average White Fan
August 23rd, 2011
2:16 pm
Hey Jesse, if Atlanta is a chocolate city, how about telling some of the chocolates to buy tickets for a change. All I see is white pasty faces in the stands.
Purveyor
August 23rd, 2011
2:16 pm
I think we have encountered the Ghost of Francoeur Past.
T.J.
August 23rd, 2011
2:17 pm
Nolee, if you want to give up one of the best young players in the game then go ahead. Effin idiot
BravesFan
August 23rd, 2011
2:17 pm
Francouer’s HR and RBI’s for his career are almost exactly what Brian McCann has. His batting average is .20 lower, McCann .290 and Francouer .270. McCann career HR’s 132 with 524 RBI’s. Francouer has 116 career HR’s and 532 RBI’s. Makes you think huh? They started in the same month in the same year together. And pretty close for a bust many think Francouer is huh?
FACTS
August 23rd, 2011
2:17 pm
@ dee
Spare me your idiotic comments about ” your mamas basement ” that is so last year…..anyway, {dingbat dee}, since you are on Bradley bandwagon so bad I will clarify my comment…I actually read Dayn Perry’s article on ESPN’s insider last night & was referring to that moron for your information…you are a prime example of just about every idiotic Atlanta fan out there whether it is football, baseball, or basketball !!!! You blog before you think….also Mark & several other writers on the AJC staff have been known to drop a stupid article frequently & not any them puts any fear in my heart I say to their face anytime any place….so stop being a groupie & blogging from your cubicle about your idols….we are talking baseball here {dingbat dee} !!!!!!
BravesFan
August 23rd, 2011
2:18 pm
Heyward isn’t even 1/2 as good as Francouer was and is. Look above for the stats.
PMC
August 23rd, 2011
2:20 pm
Heywards timing is off and he’s twenty freaking two. Bust? Are you people serious?
He had a shoulder injury this year and his mechanics at this level are not right…. but players don’t go from near rookie of the year to off the map in less than a year without some issues.
We had to be patient with Uggla now be patient with Heyward. Geez.
NoWay
August 23rd, 2011
2:22 pm
PMC,
Uggla has proven himself for 6 years, Heyward was slipping like a rock since last July.
NoWay
August 23rd, 2011
2:23 pm
Look at the difference between Heyward and Freeman. One has total cofidence and looks like someone that has been in the league 10 years, and the other looks totally lost. Guess who is who.
PMC
August 23rd, 2011
2:23 pm
He’s a second year major league player he’s had several nagging injuries and the league has figured out how to pitch him now he’s got to learn how to adjust his mechanics. Give it a rest.
Heyward's shrink
August 23rd, 2011
2:24 pm
PMC, Major League History is replete with one year wonders as I have been patiently explaining to young Jason during our sessions. I don’t need you to get his hopes up just to have them dashed. So what if 20 years from now he will be featured in “what ever happened to segments”. All that matters is Jason coming to grips to a life without baseball and finding happiness.
PMC
August 23rd, 2011
2:25 pm
He was what 20 when he came up? Who else do they have in the organization?
It’s not like Frank Wren has been brilliant exactly with the OF.
We’re lucky Constanza can play and Prado can play anywhere.
T.J.
August 23rd, 2011
2:25 pm
Its amazing to me how stupid some people are. Trade J-Hey. Hes a bust. No wonder Philly fans laugh at us. This is the worse fan base. J-Hey is no frenchy hes 22 and this is his 2nd year. pitchers adjusted to him now he has to adjust to them. He will be just fine. And I guess when Freeman goes through his sophmore slump next year were all going to hate him.
NoWay
August 23rd, 2011
2:25 pm
PMC, I am totally pulling for Heyward so don’t get me wrong. We need him to be what we think he can be for years to come. But those comparing him to Francouer as BravesFan above points out are wrong. Heyward hasn’t had 1/2 the success of Francouer and everyone was wanting to call him a bust and kick him out of town, and all he did was drive in runs.
Mental Giant
August 23rd, 2011
2:27 pm
Francouer is awesome! I want him back! I call Heyward Hurtward, isn’t that brilliant!? HAHAHA I MAKE A JOKE!! Uggla has a baseball card! That’s where I get all my baseball knowledge: baseball cards! Trade Hurtward before we get a chance to see how good he is! Hurry! I want Frenchy back! Even though I hated him while he was here!
Nolee
August 23rd, 2011
2:27 pm
Bobby Cox “That kid Heyward,when he hits the ball it just sounds different”. Yeah like a swoosh, cuz he missed it.
Tom
August 23rd, 2011
2:28 pm
BravesFan – I agree 110% with your comments. I really get tired of some of you nut- cases (who probably never played the sport)saying over and over JasonH has so much talent he will get over it, or it is just a sophomore slump. Face facts- Last year he had a .277 BA, 520 AB’s, 18 HRS, 72 RBI’s, 128 SO’s, that is about 1 strikeout every 4 AB’s. That is decent numbers not the 2nd coming of Mickey Mantle! Get real people, maybe it is too much pressure on some hometown players, it may have affected JasonH just like it did Frenchy at some point?? Maybe?? It did not seem to bother McCann though!!
Nolee
August 23rd, 2011
2:28 pm
Its pretty bad when Jeff Francoeur has better numbers than Heyward does…
NoWay
August 23rd, 2011
2:29 pm
BTW, Francoeur was barely 21 when he was called up. Quit using that as an excuse for Heyward.
Ray Barone
August 23rd, 2011
2:30 pm
This is what happens when you join the Braves. You tend to fizzle toward the end.
Nolee
August 23rd, 2011
2:30 pm
It didn’t bother Chipper or Andruw either. Heyward just ain’t that good. Face it.
Hitting Coach
August 23rd, 2011
2:31 pm
It’s all in the mechanics…it’s obvious to me that he’s bringing his hands further back during his swing and bending his legs more than last year (during his swing.) Bringing his hands further back causes him to slow his swing down (and strikeout) and the extra bend in the knees is causing him to get under the ball and pop it up. When he actually keeps the bend in his knees normal then he tends to get on top of the ball and hit bouncers straight into the ground or foul balls that somehow just miss his back foot and go behind him. Get right kid and good luck.
Nolee
August 23rd, 2011
2:32 pm
I’m sure the great Larry Parrish will ge Heyward back on track.
PMC
August 23rd, 2011
2:32 pm
This is the very first time in Jason Heyward’s life he’s dealt with adversity athletically. Sometimes it takes this kind of experience for a young player to understand what he’s got to do in order to succeed. It took Jeff Francouer 2 seperate teams worth of being lost at the plate to finally put it back together in Kansas City. Francouer is nowhere near as good a right fielder as Francouer defensively, but he’s got to figure it out at the plate. That may take more than a couple of months.
Willie
August 23rd, 2011
2:32 pm
I have never seen so many experts on how to hit a baseball. Wow, you guys should be playing.
Astro Boy
August 23rd, 2011
2:33 pm
Nloee : Bobby Cox “That kid Heyward,when he hits the ball it just sounds different”. Yeah like a swoosh, cuz he missed it.
That was funny right there.
PMC
August 23rd, 2011
2:34 pm
It’s not an excuse for Heyward. Francouer whined and cried his way out of Atlanta because he got butt hurt when he struggled for 3 years and missed out on the same contract that McCann signed because his agent thought he deserved more. It was his own fault he got traded out of Atlanta. He didn’t want to be here anymore.
Astro Boy
August 23rd, 2011
2:34 pm
Well Parrish IS getting paid to instruct Braves hitters.
dtanner
August 23rd, 2011
2:34 pm
some prospects just never pan out,jordan schafer,tony tarasco, mike kelly all the way back to brad komminsk,just happens sometimes
PMC
August 23rd, 2011
2:34 pm
Substitute Heyward for Francouer above. Heyward is not as good of a RF as Francouer.
Curt
August 23rd, 2011
2:35 pm
Heyward does not have good swing mechanics. He is far to tall in his stance, leads with his arms (vs legs), swing is too long (hands not inside (close to the body), dips his back shoulder, pulls his head…and other things.
In addition to not having a good swing, major league pitchers find the holes in swings and exploit them. It is a batter’s job to 1) minimize the hole and 2) adjust to what the pitchers are doing.
Last, hitting is very pyschological. To hit best, the batter needs to be able to relax and react.
When things start going bad, hitters start trying to adjust their mechanics and about everything else which in turn affects their head which affects their swing.
Unless Heyward can employ better mechanics and learn to adjust to the pitching, I dont see him getting much better.
On the other hand is Freeman who has very good mechanics. I am sure that when he gets into a slump, he will be able to get out of it much easier than Heyward.
Tom
August 23rd, 2011
2:36 pm
MentalGiant – How appropriate that name is for you!!! Now go back to your padded cell, break-time is over for you. Frenchy just signed a two year deal with KC for 13.5 million(that is 6.75 million a year for you math guys) and my bet is he would not want to come back. He seems happy in KC, good for him!!!!!!!!!!!!
Astro Boy
August 23rd, 2011
2:36 pm
Yeah but those prospects get sent back to the minors. They don’t take up a MLB roster spot.
gt4ever
August 23rd, 2011
2:37 pm
Jason never mastered the strike zone… Pitching is always KING…. The pitchers have just figured his swing out…. He is a good baseball player, given time he will be back… All you experts need to consider why there are a handful of hitters to ever hit over 300 lifetime…. Give the kid a chance before we send him the AAA….
Casey Stinkle
August 23rd, 2011
2:45 pm
Heyward is not struggling nearly as bad as Uggla was and look how that turned out. Like someone said earlier, he might be the WS MVP.
GT
August 23rd, 2011
2:45 pm
Frenchy all over again. Freeman ends up being McCann. At least we get a real player out of the deal. Everytime we have had a can’t miss they have missed and the one on one is talking about in that same year becomes an allstar.
The Dude
August 23rd, 2011
2:46 pm
Two things wrong with Heyward. One his swing mechanics are messed up. He’s standing way off the plate then diving into pitches…to clear his hips he’s pulling his shoulders out which is either causing his bat to drag which is causing the infield pops or he completely rolling over the ball.
Second thing that is wrong is that now that pitchers have adjusted to him, he is trying to guess what they are throwing. He’s getting fooled to many times and swinging at 59 foot curve balls.
I’d like to see him closer to the plate, open the stance up a little(allows the hitter to see) and work on keeping the barrel of the bat through the hitting zone longer. Short to it and long through it.
tdc
August 23rd, 2011
2:49 pm
I think Heyward is the only one struggling now because he is the only one listening to Parrish. Everybody else that was struggling (Freeman and Uggla) probably tuned him out.