What’s wrong with Jason Heyward? It’s a blip in his BABIP
A non-mechanical hug might do the trick. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
Writing for ESPN Insider, Dayn Perry of FanGraphs asks the question many among us have asked: What happened to Jason Heyward? (Link requires registration.) Using the best data known to man and computers, Perry offers this telling snapshot:
Heyward is trending in the wrong direction when it comes to line-drive percentage (17.8 percent in 2010 to 13.9 percent in 2011), infield pop-ups (8.4 percent to 24.7 percent) and batting average on balls in play (.335 to .245). In the case of his declining BABIP, there’s almost certainly some bad luck involved, but the remaining indicators are more troubling.
Additionally, he’s swinging at 44.8 percent of pitches overall, up from 39.4 percent last year; and he’s swinging at 28.7 percent out of the zone after hacking at just 24.2 percent of such offerings. Add it all up and you have a guy who’s hitting fewer line drives and more pop-ups and seems to have lost control of the strike zone.
We’ve noted before that Heyward is swinging more and accomplishing less. (His batting average and on-base percentage tell us that much.) We’ve also noted that this is the truly baffling part. Unlike, say, Jordan Schafer, who has struck out a lot at every level, Heyward arrived in the majors bearing the stamp of a young player who knew the strike zone and could work a count.
Many observers — from Bobby Valentine, who’s a jerk, and Chipper Jones, who’s not — have suggested that Heyward’s “mechanics” have gone, if you will, haywire. That can happen. Ask Dan Uggla. But the bit about “losing control of the strike zone” is the puzzling part. That’s not mechanical. That’s the part young Jason Heyward seemed to have down at age 20.
And now he just turned 22 and is playing behind the journeyman Jose Constanza. Baseball is the strangest of games — again, ask Dan Uggla — but I have to admit this Heyward thing has me baffled. I could not have imagined that the rookie who was so adept at figuring things out would have forgotten how to figure.
(Oh, one thing more: Perry mentions BABIP. That stands for “batting average on balls in play.” As a yardstick, statheads love BABIP. I find it hilarious. Whenever someone mentions BABIP, I want to ask, “What’s his batting average on balls not in play?” Pretty sure that’d be .000.)
Update: I’ve been reliably informed that home runs don’t count as “balls in play.” (Unless, I can only assume, they’re inside-the-park home runs.) So you can have a batting average above .000 on balls not in play. And yes, my eyes are glazing over.
By Mark Bradley
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402 comments Add your comment
stats are dumb
August 23rd, 2011
1:18 pm
@Smarty Pants — Right you are … BUT … you gotta play that hot hand. I think Fredi is using Constanza to light a fire under Heyward.
True Blue
August 23rd, 2011
1:19 pm
You are right. Its too late to send him to Gwinnett now. But Braves were wrong to let him sit on bench last 2 months and do nothing.
Rev. Jesse Jackson
August 23rd, 2011
1:19 pm
Sending Jason Heyward to the Republican bastion of Gwinnett County would be the worst thing Braves’ management could do. Atlanta is a Chocolate City and the support Jason needs is found there.
Keep hope alive, Atlanta !
stats are dumb
August 23rd, 2011
1:19 pm
Maybe J-Hey should play some winter ball. Hell, it works for Prado. I’m sure Martin can get him a gig down there.
Josh
August 23rd, 2011
1:19 pm
I am a school ball coach. I am not an expert but I am pretty good at this.
Heyward is pulling balls that are outside. He did it last year and it didn’t kill him. Pitchers have advanced scouting reports and know he will try to pull the outside pitch. When he does, it results in a weak ground ball or a pop out. I mean, really has he not hit several weak grounders back at the pitcher off the end of the bat?
Getting off to a rough start is not something he has done before really. It got into his head and now he is pulling off the ball worse, trying to knock it out of the park to break out of his funk. What he has to do is be less agressive going after pitches. He needs to wait on a mistake middle of the plate in to jump on and leave those outside pitches to late in the count when he can take a little off and go with the pitch.
I could be off base, but that is what I am seeing.
JASon
August 23rd, 2011
1:19 pm
“from Bobby Valentine, who’s a jerk, and Chipper Jones, who’s not”
For me its the other way around. I guess that’s why you are so clueless and have no hypothesis as to why Jason Heyward is struggling. Let me help you since you obviously don’t watch baseball:
-He stands four states away from the plate
-He doesn’t know how to hit to the opposite field
groundfog
August 23rd, 2011
1:19 pm
Basaball is littlered with potential superstars who declined after their rookie seasons, and never made it back. It would be intetesting to see some players stats who made it back successfully after the sophmore slump.
Josh
August 23rd, 2011
1:20 pm
A nagging shoulder issue also messes with mechanics so he has the mental aspects and the physical aspects of messy, jerking mechanics.
Bart
August 23rd, 2011
1:20 pm
Heyward has the weirdest practice swing I’ve ever seen – it’s like he pushes the bat away from his body as he swings – looks so awkward. His swing at the plate is hardly a thing of beauty – never looked like he was a natural hitter even when he was going relatively well last year. It appears from here to be flawed mechanics which major league pitchers learn to take advantage of in a heartbeat.
True Blue
August 23rd, 2011
1:20 pm
If not playing is so great then why did the send Teheran and Delgado back to Gwinnett ? AND THEY HAVE SHOWN THEY ARE READY TO BE mlb PLAYERS WHILE jASON (WHO’S IN aTLANTA) HASN’T ?
Mental Giant
August 23rd, 2011
1:23 pm
Heyward is just like Francoeur! Get it!? HAHAHAHA! I’m so smart! Send JHey to Gwinett at the end of the year to face mediocre pitching! Yeah, that’s it! How much time are we gonna give this guy?? MORE THAN ONE YEAR?? Ridiculous!!! Get him outta here, and send both him and Uggla to triple A and then trade them!…Oh wait, Uggla is hitting again?? I knew it!!! I love Uggla! JHey is the new Francouer! Get it? HAHAHA I’m hilarious and informed!
stats are dumb
August 23rd, 2011
1:23 pm
@Josh — You’re the smartest man in the room. Seriously. I see him doing the same stuff you see. He’s all backwards right now. He’s actually swinging at bad pitches and MISSING the mistakes that pitchers make. I’ve seen him take a lot of pitches up in the zone and over the plate in hitter’s counts, only to strike out on a pitcher’s pitch that is well outside the zone. You’re preaching to the choir, brother. And I’m listening.
True Blue
August 23rd, 2011
1:23 pm
If Jason can sit on bench so can Tejeran & Delgado who are better players than he is.
Teheran and Delgado
August 23rd, 2011
1:24 pm
We can’t play right field … YET.
True Blue
August 23rd, 2011
1:25 pm
Bobby Valentine was just man enough to say the truth that all you Braves homers can’t admit. Jason is not a major leaguer by the numbers. The Braves just hope he sells tickets.
Tha Troof
August 23rd, 2011
1:26 pm
Bobby V needs to go back to Japan.
Constanza
August 23rd, 2011
1:26 pm
But I can. And I start over Jason right now. Why send Teheran & Delgado to minors and keep Linebrink,Sherrill,& Vavardo here ?
Tha Troof
August 23rd, 2011
1:28 pm
Who the hell is Vavardo?
Double Zero Eight
August 23rd, 2011
1:29 pm
No confidence and he’s pressing too hard.
This too shall pass (hopefully)!
groundfog
August 23rd, 2011
1:29 pm
Bart..
It looks like he is always slices at the ball..maybe its cause he is so tall..but the results this year speak for themselves.
like a tennis slice backhand
Bobby Valentine
August 23rd, 2011
1:30 pm
I’ve saw phenoms develop into stars like David Wright and Jose Reyes that I managed. I think Jason Heyward is another Michael Tucker…
Josh
August 23rd, 2011
1:30 pm
I don’t have any info, but I wonder if the Braves aren’t sending him down because it would seem a PR disaster to some who show up to the games or if JHey has said he doesn’t want to go down…. Frenchy was ticked when we did. Wonder if that plays into it?
Tha Troof
August 23rd, 2011
1:30 pm
And Sherrill has been pretty effective as of late.
Johnny at Southlake
August 23rd, 2011
1:31 pm
If Mr.Uggla can turn it around………….Then so can Mr.Heyward………….That is all
Nate McLouth
August 23rd, 2011
1:31 pm
I wanna play too !
Nate McLouth
August 23rd, 2011
1:32 pm
I’m better than Michael Bourn. I’ll show you.
Nate McLouth's dreams
August 23rd, 2011
1:33 pm
You don’t even play as well as Bourn in my world.
Nate McLouth
August 23rd, 2011
1:34 pm
Vavardo is your daddy.
Michael Tucker
August 23rd, 2011
1:36 pm
Boy, that Jason Heyward reminds me of myself at 22. Maybe he will get as good as I was some day.
Dear Atlanta Braves fans:
August 23rd, 2011
1:36 pm
We think Heyward is doing just fine.
Sincerely,
The economy, the Democrats and lowered expectations.
Larry A
August 23rd, 2011
1:39 pm
Jason’s head is messed up which is indicated by the strike zone discipline going crazy. Cox tells him he is taking too many pitches, Gonzalez tells him he is swinging at too many. And he is getting advice from so many people, he does not know what to do. Unlike Francoeur, this is not physical (Francoeur put on too much muscle).
I think a break is the best thing for him and Constanza is giving him that. Constanza has been an amazing gift of fortune for Heyward. The pressure is off. There is someone else to play his position while he gets it figured, and he will.
Constanza is not a long term solution in RF, not enough power. He is a CF and I think the braves are committed to Bourn in CF so Constanza is a man without a position. If he has a .330 or better BA at the end of the season, look for the Braves to trade him like they did with Charles Thompson.
FACTS
August 23rd, 2011
1:41 pm
Just another media moron with a laptop & too much free time, Jason is in a slump due to pressing. Remember all those injuries that this team has fought thru this year, not to mention his own injury. Every single player great or terrible has had a slump….some just a lot longer, as far as mechanics go that is something for the staff to guide this youngster thru. If there is any example J-Hey can learn from, it is right in front of him in the form of Dan Uggla. Baseball is the most humbling sport out there, next to golf, so some patience is in order…..J-Hey is gonna get thru it….Go Braves !!!!
Dr Henry
August 23rd, 2011
1:41 pm
jason reminds me of another Braves phenom who never quite lived up to the hype ANDRUW JONES
Jeff
August 23rd, 2011
1:43 pm
For the benefit of his career, send him down for a couple of weeks, where he can play everyday and hopefully get his swing/confidence back, with less pressure. Its not doing him any good with an at bat here and there, its making him worse.
quazi
August 23rd, 2011
1:46 pm
hey morons did u know it is a felony to use someone name without there permission,keep it up i will have your ip address to the authorities
dee
August 23rd, 2011
1:48 pm
facts
i like to see you get out of your mamas basemnent to say that to mark in person,pathetic loser
deep
August 23rd, 2011
1:52 pm
send him to aaa,then trade him another loser who tweets all the time,he was on roids last year now he is off the drugs,c what happens?ask jordan schafer
NO AAA
August 23rd, 2011
1:57 pm
The Braves were in a hurry to get Heyward on the ML roster, so he skipped AAA. He did well until the pitchers found his weaknesses. He has not been able to adjust to ML pitching. Skipping AAA has really hurt him. AAA Gwinnett should be his next stop and give him time to learn how to adjust to big league pitching. He still can be a great player. Heck, he is only 20. Teach him the game and let him learn it at a more comfortable level. Confidence at the plate is hard to build if you have no experience at how to adjust. Every hitter is different and must find out what works for them. Send him to AAA and let him figure out what works for him.
FACTS
August 23rd, 2011
1:59 pm
@ Larry A
Great example about the changing of the guard from Cox to Gonzalez. This is the same thing that happens in the NFL different approaches by different people. This kid does not deserve to be compared to Andruw Jones, he doesn’t even have 2 full seasons under his belt yet, nuff said. Any real fan is not ready to toss this guy over over a cliff just yet, it simply amazes me how some ATL fans are just plain cut-throat, these other fans never diss their players the way we do here in ATL. You guys crack me up!!!! Philly is not as bad as ATL, just check the blogs!!!
dip payless
August 23rd, 2011
1:59 pm
Dr Henry
August 23rd, 2011
1:41 pm
jason reminds me of another Braves phenom who never quite lived up to the hype ANDRUW JONES
********************************************************************************************************************
You really believe Andruw did not live up to his hype. He was the best all around centerfielder for many years. The best one the Braves had ceen in a while for sure. Seems like he aged early but he had some great years.
Michael Tucker
August 23rd, 2011
2:00 pm
Yeah with friends like Constanza that takes Heyward’s job away who needs enemies ?
ChrisfromSacramento, Ca
August 23rd, 2011
2:00 pm
There is nothing wrong with Hurtward. The fact is he is not that good and his swing that he has had his whole life is a chop wood, one plane swing.
The scouts and teams have found him out and Hurtward has shown no willingness to adjust or he is just a fool. I mean how dumb can you be to still keep sliding head first. STUBBORN!
Hurtward will never be good or even as good as Jeff. Jeff was awful!!! That is sad.
People think Hurtward is some hope to save the word like another masiah but he is not. A fourth outfielder at best who cant catch balls he is going back on.
Hurtward is a bust. Heyward suclks. Trade his lazy, cant make adjustments ass and get something for him.
He has the most god awful ugly swing in baseball.
Dr. Henrietta
August 23rd, 2011
2:01 pm
Jason reminds me of Terry Harper.
DawgDad
August 23rd, 2011
2:02 pm
Heyward, at this point, is a pull-hitting power hitter with a good eye at the plate. Given that he’s 22 years old and in a slump, I take the Ted Williams approach and tell him to take his natural swing, and swing hard. Stop trying to be what everybody else thinks you should be and just play hard and stay alert.
Constanza is a hot hand, so ride it out. Heyward will be playing now because of the ankle, and at some point when he comes back Constanza will eventually come back to earth, too. A .250 hitting Jason Heyward is far more valuable than a .300 hitting Constanza.
Dr. Henrietta
August 23rd, 2011
2:04 pm
Did you know quasi is Chinese for wuss ?
captguitarman
August 23rd, 2011
2:04 pm
I was a really good hitter in 9 years of Little League and into my high school years that stretched into my high school years. Of course, like all good hitters, I had my slumps. My tried and true remedy was to get a rubber baseball, stick a screw through it, bolt it, and then tie the screw to a rope about 15 to 16 feet long, and then have someone swing it in a circle, over a home plate. And then take batting practice. If you were not following the ball with your eyes intensely, all the way to contact, you were going to miss a lot. It required intense focus to hit the fast coming ball, which to me, was actually harder to hit than a pitched ball. And the focus on the ball and ball alone, did wonders for helping me hit breaking balls, sliders, etc. or leaving them alone. The guy swinging the ball could do slow, fast, change up speed (breaking balls were not possible, of course) and he could swing the ball high, middle, or low, and I could take a normal stance at the plate, or step up, or step back. I helped me to focus only on the ball and to practice hitting balls in every part of the strke zone. Old fashioned, even-primitive and low tech, Laugh all you want, but it worked wonders for getting out of slumps and improving my hitting when I wasn’t in a slump. Try it. You’ll see.
Moe
August 23rd, 2011
2:05 pm
I don’t think Triple A is the answer. He’s seeing the ball well. For a guy documented on being able to see the spin on a ball, he has a lot of late swings and pulls off more than he should. Furthermore, that uppercut swing is ridiculous. If he levels off his swing and shows more patience at the plate he will pull a Dan Uggla. If not, there will be more blogs about what’s wrong with him.
Mitchell
August 23rd, 2011
2:05 pm
PMC
August 23rd, 2011
10:01 am
Freddie Freeman is a rookie like Jason was last year. Let’s hold off on the soon to be 6 time all star talk.
Jason is having a bad year, he’s not a bad player.
You might be able to say that if his defense wasn’t at times equally bad. Or, in fact, often.
Or just… as bad.
He may not be a bad player but he’s not a very good player at the moment either.
But thank God we finally have a manager who plays guys who give the team the best chance to win each night. Otherwise, we might not be 8.5 up on the wild card.
Dr. Henrietta
August 23rd, 2011
2:05 pm
Chris, its messiah. Did you finish 7th grade ?
Tree rollins
August 23rd, 2011
2:05 pm
Atlanta has been without a good hitting coach for years – the players are on their own to groom their hiiting. Thus the Franceour and Hayward situations. Chipper and McCann have their fathers as their hitting coaches!