What’s wrong with Jason Heyward? It’s a blip in his BABIP
A non-mechanical hug might do the trick. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
Writing for ESPN Insider, Dayn Perry of FanGraphs asks the question many among us have asked: What happened to Jason Heyward? (Link requires registration.) Using the best data known to man and computers, Perry offers this telling snapshot:
Heyward is trending in the wrong direction when it comes to line-drive percentage (17.8 percent in 2010 to 13.9 percent in 2011), infield pop-ups (8.4 percent to 24.7 percent) and batting average on balls in play (.335 to .245). In the case of his declining BABIP, there’s almost certainly some bad luck involved, but the remaining indicators are more troubling.
Additionally, he’s swinging at 44.8 percent of pitches overall, up from 39.4 percent last year; and he’s swinging at 28.7 percent out of the zone after hacking at just 24.2 percent of such offerings. Add it all up and you have a guy who’s hitting fewer line drives and more pop-ups and seems to have lost control of the strike zone.
We’ve noted before that Heyward is swinging more and accomplishing less. (His batting average and on-base percentage tell us that much.) We’ve also noted that this is the truly baffling part. Unlike, say, Jordan Schafer, who has struck out a lot at every level, Heyward arrived in the majors bearing the stamp of a young player who knew the strike zone and could work a count.
Many observers — from Bobby Valentine, who’s a jerk, and Chipper Jones, who’s not — have suggested that Heyward’s “mechanics” have gone, if you will, haywire. That can happen. Ask Dan Uggla. But the bit about “losing control of the strike zone” is the puzzling part. That’s not mechanical. That’s the part young Jason Heyward seemed to have down at age 20.
And now he just turned 22 and is playing behind the journeyman Jose Constanza. Baseball is the strangest of games — again, ask Dan Uggla — but I have to admit this Heyward thing has me baffled. I could not have imagined that the rookie who was so adept at figuring things out would have forgotten how to figure.
(Oh, one thing more: Perry mentions BABIP. That stands for “batting average on balls in play.” As a yardstick, statheads love BABIP. I find it hilarious. Whenever someone mentions BABIP, I want to ask, “What’s his batting average on balls not in play?” Pretty sure that’d be .000.)
Update: I’ve been reliably informed that home runs don’t count as “balls in play.” (Unless, I can only assume, they’re inside-the-park home runs.) So you can have a batting average above .000 on balls not in play. And yes, my eyes are glazing over.
By Mark Bradley
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402 comments Add your comment
MightyQuinn
August 23rd, 2011
12:20 pm
Hey, Mark, don’t I recall in spring training that the coaching staff stated they were working with Heyward to be more aggressive at the plate? If my memory is correct then it would seem the blame for Jheys loss of the strike zone would have to fall heavily on Parrish and FrediG. Also, the preponderance of new stats in baseball is blowing my feeble 53 year old mind as well. I like the WHIP stat, its simple and makes a great point. WAR, on the other hand, seems a lot like the QB grading scale. Only a few geeks can explain it and/or calculate it, but everyone thinks it infallible and fawns all over it.
submariner
August 23rd, 2011
12:33 pm
He’s lost it and will probably never ascend to greatness. It’s a Franceour re-run. I just hope Freeman doesn’t lose it too. I hate it for him, but he’s probably never going to be a 30/30 guy.
Nick
August 23rd, 2011
12:36 pm
Whatever is wrong, Fredi’s approach to dealing with it is worse. Either play him and let him figure it out in the big leagues or send him to AAA and let him figure it out there. Nothing is being solved by him getting 8-12 AB’s per week.
Primakov
August 23rd, 2011
12:40 pm
Love how people who hate on “advanced” stats don’t actually know what those stats mean, and routinely stick their feet in their mouths. Apparently dumb is the new smart.
FYI you’re being deservedly ripped over at BTF.
Heyward the New Francouer
August 23rd, 2011
12:41 pm
J Hey STINKS….Sinks at the plate……Stinks in the field going after fly balls….It is time to send this MISFIT back to the Minor Leagues…..if he has the talent – and I am not sure he does – he will make it back but no real loss to us right now because HE STINKS UP THE CLUBHOUSE & DUGOUT WITH HIS FUNK!!!!!!! SEND HIM DOWN NOW!!!!!!!!!!!
henry from TN
August 23rd, 2011
12:41 pm
heyward should go down and play winter ball so he may be ready for next year….
Tony
August 23rd, 2011
12:44 pm
The same question was asked of Dan Uggla until July. Heyward is in a serious slump, but he is too talented of a player for the slump to last. Perhaps, just perhaps Heyward will catch the playoff spirit and become one of our heroes in the post season. I believe it is all mental at this point. He needs to take the suggestion of Chipper and just make contact, using all of the field.
Lobosolo
August 23rd, 2011
12:46 pm
Herschel Talker, You speak of idiots as if you know what a huge one yourself is… Pee up a rope, jaggoff… The rest of you armchairs: Not a one of you could come remotely close to hitting a big league pitch… period… Why don’t y’all gather yourselves up and get phil and alexis to drive you over to the batting cages, where the pitches are no higher than 70 mph and you can swing and miss at several for a few quarters… after you’re convinced that “hey, I don’t know jack about hitting”, come on back and give us real fans a little more of your “expertise”… WHAT A BUNCH OF FLIPPIN’ IDJETS!!!!
E's Dirty Bird's
August 23rd, 2011
12:47 pm
It appears as though he has lost all confidence. I also wish he would show a little emotion. This slump should be bothering him and he seems appathetic at all times. I wonder about his mental toughness… he is kind of acting like a puss!
Don't care if he is not available
August 23rd, 2011
12:48 pm
Don’t give a rat’s behind if he is not available for post season – right now he is a strikeout king and a groundball to the second baseman king….not doing us a dang bit of good……Send him down….
b
August 23rd, 2011
12:50 pm
mark, I also think Valentine is one of the most smugh, jerks on tv.
On another note will baseball tonight please quit talking about the yankees
projected pitching rotation for the playoffs. In almost every segment, they predict
what their rotation should be. And I’m sick of it.
They sure as heck don’t discuss the other playoff teams rotations.
ANTOINEFORD
August 23rd, 2011
12:52 pm
Vallentine’s right. His swing is screwy
Bob in SF
August 23rd, 2011
12:53 pm
Mark, I thought you were above old school, ink-stained wretch, curmudgeonly rants against sabermetrics. I honestly think J-Hey has expanded his zone for a couple of reasons; one he is so young that umpires don’t always give him the benefit of a doubt and call borderline pitches for the pitcher. Two, he has struggled this year and it has cause him to be less patient and more aggressive. He will be fine eventually but wih the rise of Constanza and an outside shot to catch the Phils it’s tough to let him work it out.
BoatDoc
August 23rd, 2011
12:53 pm
Yep, time to throw out the future faces of the franchise with the bathwater…
Not.
Heisenberg
August 23rd, 2011
12:53 pm
In addition to the % infield pop-ups increasing and % line-drives decreasing, what is his WGBHA2B rate compared to 2010? That seems higher also. A high WGBHA2B will contribute to a lower BABIP.
WGBHA2B = weak ground balls hit at 2nd base
Rev. Jesse Jackson
August 23rd, 2011
12:54 pm
Its obviously a racial issue in Atlanta.
Two-thirds of the season two fair-haired caucasions named McLouth & Schafer battle it out hitting a combined .200 before a person of color named Constanza with no credentials or promise to speak of, breaks through the glass ceiling created by Braves’ management.
Now, the young African-American Heyward experiences a sophmore slump and gets benched.
In 2009 the caucasion Kelly Johnson was playing secondbase and hitting .200 for half the season, gets hurt, and Venezuelan Martin Prado takes over, finding himself in the All-Star game in 2010.
Not only is Braves’ management racist, they’d rather keep a bunch of .200 hitting crackers in the lineup and lose than give a brother a chance.
They should be the Atlanta Crackers !
Primakov
August 23rd, 2011
12:55 pm
Hearing that scouts think his shoulder is nowhere near healed.
J Hey's Better (Than This)
August 23rd, 2011
12:56 pm
And once again the ” TRUE” BANDWAGONEERS come out to play come on people if you cant tell that this kid is pressing I dont know what to tell you look at the walk ratio from last year to this year the kid is clearly uncomfortable at the plate and that shoulder problem has everthing to do with it. 3 months ago Uggla was run out of town and now everyone loves the guy. Jason just needs to figure it out and he WILL figure it out there is toooooo much talent there for him not to and the Frenchy to JHEY comparison is a joke Jeff Francouer was a football player trying to play baseball Jason Heyward IS a baseball player and he will be in right field for a long time
rfgh
August 23rd, 2011
12:57 pm
I cringe when I look at the comments of most of the bloggers here. No wonder the rest of the country thinks we’re idiots. Bashing Bobby Cox? He’s going into the Hall of Fame, inbred cretins. And criticising Fredi Gonzalez? Took over a playoff team that is even better this year. You guys would complain about a free meal.
J Hey's Better (Than This)
August 23rd, 2011
12:58 pm
And why do people always have to make it a “RACE” thing I dont care if Jason Heyward was Blue he isnt playing very well right now at all so lets leave the racial crap outta this blog
bc
August 23rd, 2011
12:58 pm
Mark, Valentine is indeed a smug,jerk.
On another note, baseball tonight needs to quit discussing the Yankees
predicted playoff pitching rotation. They bring it up almost EVERY segment. Sickening!
oldfart
August 23rd, 2011
12:59 pm
I would prefer that someone look into the statistics of sophomore jinxes that seem to crossover to all sports. I would submit that the cause is more mental than physical.
Primakov
August 23rd, 2011
12:59 pm
Well, Atlanta doesn’t really care about baseball anyway (they have a hard time selling out PLAYOFF games), so I’m not surprised that many of the comments here are of the Neanderthalic moron variety.
Primakov
August 23rd, 2011
1:00 pm
@J Hey: Pretty sure the race thing was a joke.
stats are dumb
August 23rd, 2011
1:00 pm
Last year Heyward hit the ball very hard, very often. This year he’s a cheap out. Comparatively, Freddie is pounding the ball and he isn’t a cheap out. That’s all that matters. Uggla started to slowly come around when he started hitting the ball hard again. Even when he made an out, he was hitting the ball hard, only he hit it right at somebody. A lot of that is just dumb luck, but as a hitter, you know good things are on the horizon as long as you hit the ball hard. Heyward has lost that feeling. Last year he had a swagger. This year, his game has gotten away from him and he’s trying to hard to get it back. He needs to start having fun again.
kirkinga
August 23rd, 2011
1:02 pm
The same people telling us that Jason Heyward is a “bust” are the very same people who said the same thing about Kris Medlen when he struggled after he was hyped. Bottom line is the Braves don’t have a stable of young outfielders to count on, and so Heyward is going to get more than a few seasons to prove that he is at least a good player.
The idea that he must be a superstar or a bust, is not a fair standard. He can help this team by just being average.
J Hey's Better (Than This)
August 23rd, 2011
1:03 pm
Yeah but racial jokes of inequality are nothing to joke about this country for one has been through enough of that crap.
Chief Martin Brody
August 23rd, 2011
1:04 pm
I think we’re going to need a bigger bat.
J Hey's Better (Than This)
August 23rd, 2011
1:04 pm
Im still teed off at the Francouer comparisons they are giving to Jason Heyward. LMAO you gotta be kidding me!
stats are dumb
August 23rd, 2011
1:05 pm
@rfgh — AMEN.
JoeFan
August 23rd, 2011
1:05 pm
Heyward seems to have a good attitude and appears teachable. Send him to AAA and let him work on a daily basis until he gets things sorted out. Maybe in a season or two he will be ready to return. Until then the Braves have Costanza and another outfielder at AAA (Gartrell) that they can replace Heyward with.
the race card
August 23rd, 2011
1:06 pm
Don’t play me, dawg. I ain’t got time for you fools.
Really?
August 23rd, 2011
1:07 pm
@JoeFan — Dumb idea. He was ready last year. He doesn’t need “a year or two” in AAA ball. He needs to get his mojo back.
Old Gold
August 23rd, 2011
1:08 pm
Another Frenchie! Trade him!!!
J Hey's Better (Than This)
August 23rd, 2011
1:08 pm
Got stuck listening to the Cubs broadcasters yesterday I almost fell asleep during the game. All they talked about is how Sterling Castro wasnt paying attention to the game while on the field sounds the the Cubs all year except when they are trying to hit opposing batters
bigbrave
August 23rd, 2011
1:09 pm
Just write it off as the sophmore jinx!! Jason will figure it out and be a great player – hopefully with the braves!
J.J.M.
August 23rd, 2011
1:09 pm
I say give him one more year if he sucks it up again trade him so he can get a new start somewhere else
Fantasy Nut
August 23rd, 2011
1:10 pm
Just because I dropped J-Hey off my team doesn’t mean I don’t still love him. But business is business.
Creaky
August 23rd, 2011
1:11 pm
It’s Bobby’s fault, He told him to be more aggressive shortly after he got the call-up.He has not been the same since.
stats are dumb
August 23rd, 2011
1:11 pm
@bigbrave — AMEN again.
Leggo My Ego
August 23rd, 2011
1:11 pm
I mean having Heyward on bench like he’s a HOFer or something is crazy. He’s young and needs to be playing every day making adjustments. Just not with the Braves,at Gwinnett.
Appalachia Brave
August 23rd, 2011
1:12 pm
Ease up on Hayward…He’s still learning the game. Give him some time,he’s gonna be great. What was Uggla doing at 22?
Da Man
August 23rd, 2011
1:13 pm
I hope he figures things out. Another big bat along with Uggla and McCann would be incredible. I just wonder if he’ll be able to pull out of the tail spin given the fact that any change will be noticed by pitchers and they’ll adapt accordingly.
Smarty Pants
August 23rd, 2011
1:13 pm
I told all of you that Heyward was another Michael Tucker 2 months ago. And he’s supposed to be another Hank Aaron ? He couldn’t carry Hank’s jock strap…
Gwinnett
August 23rd, 2011
1:13 pm
Look, I am not the answer. Big leaguers need to stay in the Show.
Smarty Pants
August 23rd, 2011
1:15 pm
Playing twice per week is no good for a very young player with a lost swing.
Hank’s jock strap
August 23rd, 2011
1:15 pm
It’s true. I am heavy. And smelly.
Minor Leaguer
August 23rd, 2011
1:16 pm
Jason belongs with me.
J Hey's Better (Than This)
August 23rd, 2011
1:17 pm
OKKKKK FOR EVERYONE OUT THERE THE LAST GAME AT GWINNETT IS SEPTEMBER 5TH that gives him not even two weeks to do something. I dont know how that is going to help him.
Jason's Jock Strap
August 23rd, 2011
1:17 pm
Me & Jason belong in minor leagues. I ain’t worth toting.