What’s wrong with Jason Heyward? It’s a blip in his BABIP
A non-mechanical hug might do the trick. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
Writing for ESPN Insider, Dayn Perry of FanGraphs asks the question many among us have asked: What happened to Jason Heyward? (Link requires registration.) Using the best data known to man and computers, Perry offers this telling snapshot:
Heyward is trending in the wrong direction when it comes to line-drive percentage (17.8 percent in 2010 to 13.9 percent in 2011), infield pop-ups (8.4 percent to 24.7 percent) and batting average on balls in play (.335 to .245). In the case of his declining BABIP, there’s almost certainly some bad luck involved, but the remaining indicators are more troubling.
Additionally, he’s swinging at 44.8 percent of pitches overall, up from 39.4 percent last year; and he’s swinging at 28.7 percent out of the zone after hacking at just 24.2 percent of such offerings. Add it all up and you have a guy who’s hitting fewer line drives and more pop-ups and seems to have lost control of the strike zone.
We’ve noted before that Heyward is swinging more and accomplishing less. (His batting average and on-base percentage tell us that much.) We’ve also noted that this is the truly baffling part. Unlike, say, Jordan Schafer, who has struck out a lot at every level, Heyward arrived in the majors bearing the stamp of a young player who knew the strike zone and could work a count.
Many observers — from Bobby Valentine, who’s a jerk, and Chipper Jones, who’s not — have suggested that Heyward’s “mechanics” have gone, if you will, haywire. That can happen. Ask Dan Uggla. But the bit about “losing control of the strike zone” is the puzzling part. That’s not mechanical. That’s the part young Jason Heyward seemed to have down at age 20.
And now he just turned 22 and is playing behind the journeyman Jose Constanza. Baseball is the strangest of games — again, ask Dan Uggla — but I have to admit this Heyward thing has me baffled. I could not have imagined that the rookie who was so adept at figuring things out would have forgotten how to figure.
(Oh, one thing more: Perry mentions BABIP. That stands for “batting average on balls in play.” As a yardstick, statheads love BABIP. I find it hilarious. Whenever someone mentions BABIP, I want to ask, “What’s his batting average on balls not in play?” Pretty sure that’d be .000.)
Update: I’ve been reliably informed that home runs don’t count as “balls in play.” (Unless, I can only assume, they’re inside-the-park home runs.) So you can have a batting average above .000 on balls not in play. And yes, my eyes are glazing over.
By Mark Bradley
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402 comments Add your comment
jerry
August 23rd, 2011
11:04 am
He holds his elbows so high and his swing appears to start at 1 o’clock, down to 4 o’clock, and up to 12 o’clock. I have been told the proper trajectory of the bat should be 3-6-9-12. All I know is the last time I saw him bat, there were two fastballs right down the middle, and he swung under both of them.
extremus
August 23rd, 2011
11:07 am
After the way this campaign has gone for Jason Heyward, I can’t help but imagine he’d be playing winter ball to try to get things straightened out. He and the Braves simply have too much to lose if he just uses the time to take a vacation.
Felix Millan
August 23rd, 2011
11:08 am
Shaun – BABIP is useful because things like batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage don’t account for a grounder just out of the reach of an infielder versus a grounder that ends up in an infielder’s glove …
Really? The first one sounds like a hit, the second one sounds like an out. That shows up in the good old-fashioned batting average.
dip payless
August 23rd, 2011
11:10 am
If Heyward doesn’t turn it around it will be interesting to see how much of a short lease is put around him next season. Constanza is not the future of the Braves in RF. Anyway I’m just going to enjoy the remainder of this season and the playoffs. This team is really on a roll right now.
J-bone
August 23rd, 2011
11:11 am
JH hasn’t been the same since the thumb injury last year… the one they said might never fully heal.
AOW
August 23rd, 2011
11:12 am
Before we all push the panic button, let’s not forget slumps happen. As the article said, “Ask Dan Uggla”. As for Heyward, as long as Constanza is playing well he will continue to be part-time and, unlike Dan Uggla, not have a chance to break out anytime soon. I believe he will be fine and will have to adjust to “the adjustments” that were made on him. Personally, I am surprised at the numbers that say he is swinging more and taking less. I thought the opposite and that he should be more aggressive because he can do more damage swinging the bat than walking down to 1st base.
Mentally, I think he has what it takes to get his groove back. After all he did accept platooning/benching for a guy we probably won’t remember after this year.
Comparisons to Francouer are so ridiculous at this stage!
Gonzalez has handled it OK to this point and is playing the hot hand, which has worked, but he also knows the future is with Heyward and he has to get him more AB’s.
WinderDawg
August 23rd, 2011
11:14 am
Anyway Chipper’s or McCann’s father can help him out…or we could send Jerry.
Big Dude
August 23rd, 2011
11:17 am
Could he possibly be trying to live up to the high expectatations placed on him from the fans and media? they’re still showing that commercial with him hitting the balls out of the park and hitting that ragged out car in the parking lot.
noseknows
August 23rd, 2011
11:17 am
This same article and comments could refer to Atlanta native Gordon Beckham of the White Sox.
Um, yeah
August 23rd, 2011
11:19 am
Jason Heyward is the next…Jason Heyward. Not freeman or francouer. He will be alright…the fair-weather fans in this city….unbelievable.
Mike
August 23rd, 2011
11:20 am
Here’s a question I have on BABIP… If an outfielder jumps up and robs a player of a homerun does that count as a “ball in play”. Cuz if it does then a homerun should count. Of course this is baseball and some of the rules don’t make sense (ie on sac fly/bunt that scores a run batter gets a RBI, on an infield hit that scores a run but batter is thrown out at first thats a “fielder’s choice” and no RBI)
hangman
August 23rd, 2011
11:23 am
send the kid to AAA. That’s why it’s there!
foutip
August 23rd, 2011
11:23 am
Say what you want about Francouer, but he just received a two year extension from the Royals. Not a long term contract, but better than the minors or out right release.
Preston
August 23rd, 2011
11:25 am
Jason was sent to the majors too quickly is what’s wrong with Jason. He’ll be fine if given time but I think he should play AAA for a while until he’s really ready.
DC
August 23rd, 2011
11:25 am
people saying send him down…send him down…constanza is injured..missing couple games…so yeah..keep him here.
Over for 2010
August 23rd, 2011
11:27 am
Heyward should have been sent down to AAA Gwinnett a long time ago so he could be helped though this problem. Instead, they keep him on the bench and play him every 5 days. It takes playing time to work out the kinks but Gonzo is doing Heyward wrong. Had he gone to Gwinnett he would have been out of this funk by now. Prolonged by Gonzo. Just like Cox.
jerry
August 23rd, 2011
11:30 am
Would Fredi dare leave him off the playoff roster? He hit 2 singles in 16 at bats and struck out 8 times in last year’s playoff.
Richard Dawson
August 23rd, 2011
11:32 am
What was wrong with Francoeur his second (and successive) seasons? What might be wrong with Freddie Freeman next year? Pitchers figured him out. I love how some kool-aid drinkers I talked to last season said Heyward was a guaranteed sure thing. When I pointed out that people said the same of Francoeur, and even backed it up with quotes from numerous sources around his rookie season, the drinkers still argued with me. Now everyone thinks Freeman is the next Lou Gehrig. Give me a break. I sure hope so, but I doubt it.
Pdog
August 23rd, 2011
11:33 am
Heyward will be fine if people like Chipper and Cox get out of his head. It was Cox last year who said he was taking to many pitches, this at a time when his OBP was almost 400. Then earlier this year Chipper shoots his mouth off about Heyward needing to suck it up and get back on the field even if is shoulder was not 100%. I am sure that Heyward came back to soon and the shoulder screwed up his swing. Now on top of everything else when he gets in there and does have a good game like he did against the mets a few weeks ago Fredi sits him the next day. Time to stop screwing with him and just let him go out and play and work through this the same way they did for Uggla and how they would for Mac or Chipper.
Dirty Dawg
August 23rd, 2011
11:36 am
It is sad to see that the kid is so screwed up with his swing and pitch selection – I mean last night he swung (or is it swang) through pitches right down his, so-called, ‘crush zone’.
I hate Valentine as well, but his comment that night made sense to me…namely that it didn’t appear that Jason had ‘made any adjustments at all in his swing’. Of course BV has no idea what ‘attempts’ have been made, but he, Jason, seems to be doing the same things over and over and, guess what, getting the same results – I’ve heard somewhere that that’s not productive.
Sure hope Chipper will be able to help him out, and it may take the off-season to do so, but to me his swing has what I call a loop in it that doesn’t allow the bat to stay in the ‘hitting’ zone as long as it might…obviously I have no real idea, but as was said, he doesn’t possess that smooth, left-hander’s, swing, ala Darrell Evans, Will Clark and even Chipper. Open his stance, lower his bat (like Chipper’s dad pointed out to him), do something, please, for the kid’s sake and for ours.
wreckbuzz
August 23rd, 2011
11:36 am
The issue I have with BABIP is that it ignores a key factor…how hard did you hit the ball?
If you have a low BABIP but are rolling over grounders to the right side all the time, then saying bad luck plays a part in that is stupid. It’s not like JHey is hitting them right at em all the time. He’s not squaring up the ball like he used to. I’d say the combination of a shoulder injury, Chipper guilting him into coming back, adjusting his mechanics due to pain and feeling a sense of urgency to perform is why he’s out of whack mechanically and mentally. He needs an offseason of health and video work to wipe the slate clean and get back where he was.
Leggo My Ego
August 23rd, 2011
11:36 am
Heyward has been a bust. Freeman has outplayed him 10X. Whatever happened to that “The ball sounds different off his bat” stuff ? Yeah, whenever he actually makes contact…
Terrell
August 23rd, 2011
11:37 am
Man do people on here turn on Heyward or what? If Freeman struggles like this next year, which I hope he doesn’t, are you going to treat him the same way you all are treating Heyward or will you put him in the “Good O’Boy” section with Chipper Jones?
Steve
August 23rd, 2011
11:38 am
Hope I’m not right but the name Brad Komminsk comes to mind. Great baseball body, hyped as the next superstar. It’s rumored that the Braves even passed up a trade with the Pirates for Barry Bonds. I can remember Komminsk swinging in the same plane ni matter where the pitch was and it seemd JH does the same, very mechanical and not a smooth easy swing at all. Let’s hope Chipper works with him in the off season because now is not the time to be making changes.
Drago
August 23rd, 2011
11:40 am
From what I am hearing, Jason needs to be more of a student of baseball and less of a community leader. Some people’s expectations are hurting him.
Josh
August 23rd, 2011
11:42 am
If you send Heyward to the minors, he is ineligible for the postseason if he isn’t on our roster Aug. 31. There are also less than 2 weeks of baseball left in the minors.
jerry
August 23rd, 2011
11:43 am
@Josh…………that could be a good thing.
Josh
August 23rd, 2011
11:46 am
Also, right or wrong, I believe part of the thought process is that the Braves want him there working with Parrish, not in the minors.
Josh
August 23rd, 2011
11:47 am
@jerry,
The way he is playing now, true but who would you use in his place on the bench on the roster that is any better ?
Brad in KY
August 23rd, 2011
11:47 am
Jason Heyward is screwed up because of a clubhouse culture that encourages playing through injuries. He hurt his shoulder and tried to play through it (just like the thumb injury last season) and now his swing is all screwed up as a result of trying to compensate for the injury. Also, I guarantee that shoulder is still bothering him. Until the Braves get a competent medical staff in place and give the players freedom to sit when hurt so they can play at optimal capacity I expect this trend to continue.
Also, BABIP makes perfect sense to anyone that actually cares to think a little about it. Sportswriters, of course, prefer cliche. Much easier to pump out crappy articles full of cliche and the same old vacuous explanations than it is to engage in real analysis.
lee
August 23rd, 2011
11:49 am
Its seems simple to me Heyward did explode in in first year, but that was last year when he noone knew who he was. this year the league adjusted to him, but he seems to REFUSE to make his own adjustments back to the pitching. instead he does things like REFUSE to play ball when he comes off the disabled list!!! and he continues to do the same things at the plate!!! and now he is injury prone!! he is going to be another Chipper Jones that is full of himself and thinks he is ENTITLED not to have to work at his game!! he doenst deserve to be wearing a Braves uniform!!
tdc
August 23rd, 2011
11:49 am
Did anybody see the article where Jason and Parrish was in the cage working on his swing then Chipper comes up and suggest that Heyward start taking the ball the other way? WHAT THE H3LL WAS PARRISH DOING?
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2011/08/21/jones-encouraging-heyward-to-use-whole-field/
Boo Boo
August 23rd, 2011
11:53 am
It is sad to see what appears to be a young Henry Aaron so dispondent and unable to even hit a foul ball. He was the only Brave listed in the “Top 50 Players” in baseball earlier this year (#50), with only his minor league resume to go on. He has all the tools, but a mind is a terrible thing to waste. He needs to be cleaning toilets in Gwinett until he decides he wants to play pro ball again. Leave him off the playoff roster and bring up some minor leaguer to play right field until Costanza is back.
tmc
August 23rd, 2011
11:55 am
Unfortunately, there is so little time left in the minor league schedule. Sending Heyward down is just not an option right now. It should have been done a few weeks ago, but now it’s too late.
You just got to hope an off-season and fresh start in ‘12 makes a difference.
jerry
August 23rd, 2011
11:56 am
@Josh,
The tv guys mentioned signing Wes Helms, not to take his place on the roster specifically, and if they did, I don’t know if he would be any better.
Johnny at Southlake
August 23rd, 2011
11:56 am
Heyward only need look at Mr.Uggla to KNOW that this can be turned around. Uggla was the worst hitter in baseball a few short months ago. NOW he is the man. Heyward is still a great outfielder,so he can win us games in that way until he comes around
Shaun
August 23rd, 2011
11:59 am
Shaun – BABIP is useful because things like batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage don’t account for a grounder just out of the reach of an infielder versus a grounder that ends up in an infielder’s glove …
Really? The first one sounds like a hit, the second one sounds like an out. That shows up in the good old-fashioned batting average.
Felix, that’s the problem. Same batted ball but one time it’s a hit, the other time it’s an error.
Reid in EAV
August 23rd, 2011
11:59 am
Hey, the SABR heads drive me nuts too — the pitfall of having too much information, much of it good, is to think that the game can be understood (and managed) purely by numbers. The elephant in the room is that some things can’t be measured, and the inherent bias of the Sabermetric approach is to think that if it can’t be measured, it doesn’t exist. Ultimately baseball is played on a field by human beings, not on a spreadsheet by formulas.
All that said, I still don’t think that justifies using such a condescending, tongue-in-cheek tone when employing advanced stats. BABIP and other stats like OPS+ and WAR are just ways to understand the game in a deeper, more insightful way. Give credit where it’s due, even if it’s due to pencil-necked geeks.
Shaun
August 23rd, 2011
12:02 pm
Johnny at Southlake, but the Braves don’t like to give Heyward the same benefit of the doubt as Uggla or that Prado got, for that matter. Heyward’s different in their minds for some reason.
Josh
August 23rd, 2011
12:03 pm
@Jerry
Helms won’t be eligible more than likely unless there is an injury to an infielder.
schmeckdawg
August 23rd, 2011
12:03 pm
He’ll get it figured out. Look how long it has taken Francour (sp?) and he just signed a pretty sweet deal with KC.
Shaun
August 23rd, 2011
12:03 pm
Johnny, the Braves don’t want to give Heyward the same chance that Uggla had or that Prado had. I think that’s clear.
Nick P.
August 23rd, 2011
12:04 pm
he clearly needs time in the minors rediscovering what made him a no-miss star on the major league level, just like Francoeur, i dont know why we always are so shy about sending someone down to make him better and have him stick around on a second tour, players in Jason’s position should volunteer this so they can have a career, not look down at the opportunity see it as a negative!
schmeckdawg
August 23rd, 2011
12:04 pm
Better a “blip in his BABIP,” than a blip in his OBGYN!
Heyward grounds out to second
August 23rd, 2011
12:06 pm
Yeah Heyward’s mechanics and approach are a lot different than they were last year. I remember thinking that he was good last year with a lot of potential, but this year, he’s just all over the place. He does pop up a lot, but man he grounds out to second base more than anyone I’ve ever seen.
Hope he gets back on track because we’ll need him without Jose for a few days.
skip
August 23rd, 2011
12:07 pm
What’s wrong with Jason Heyward? It’s simple, really. Opposing pitchers have found his weaknesses and he has been unwilling or unable to make the necessary adjustments. Until he does he will never hit over .250 at the major league level.
dap01
August 23rd, 2011
12:18 pm
Send him to AAA to learn again how to hit. Get a new batting coach.
Braves Fan Since "80
August 23rd, 2011
12:19 pm
Heyward is learning at the Major leauge level…. he is having a bad season…. it was to easy to start but he will be a player…. john mayberry jr is older and struggled andre dawson struggled….. tall guys have a more difficult time adjusting if they have long swings…… he has been in a slump since he looked bad in the playoffs last year….. I say he will work his way back
jayvee
August 23rd, 2011
12:19 pm
I’ve said it before, and Chipper’s recent comments to USA Today about Heyward tend to reinforce the suggestion that the kid has a tiny sweet zone and the pitchers have learned quickly how to keep the ball out of his sweet zone. But the swing is true to the zone, not to where the ball is pitched. I think he needs a new stance and a new approach. It’d start by getting the end of the bat more over his head instead of behind his back. He lunges into the plate at a weird angle, an angle that allows him to generate a lot of power when the ball is in his tiny sweet spot, but an angle that doesn’t allow him to adjust to where the ball is pitched, or where the ball is moving as it gets to the plate. And this, of course, leads to a lot of pop ups and tame grounders. I don’t know how often someone who’s made The Show has had to scrap everything they’re doing at the plate and start from scratch with an entirely new approach, but it seems to me that’s what it’s going to take. And why the Braves haven’t sent him down to begin this re-engineering and retooling process is beyond me. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result. Heyward probably is not going to be anything more than a .300 onbase guy until the re-engineering is complete, and that might take an entire year. You’re not going to win the pennant with Hayward and Gonzales and the pitcher’s spot sapping the offense at the bottom third of your lineup. (So, thank god for Georgy.) Let’s be honest: Gonzo has been a rally-killer and is one of the worst offensive producers in the majors this year — among everyday players, anyway. I know he’s there for his D, which is awesome, but c’mon. Use your head a little, Gonzo. Don’t give away at bats by swinging at pitches that are a foot outside.
SMITTYSTHEMAN
August 23rd, 2011
12:19 pm
Could it simply be he’s just not the player all the so-called experts predicted he would be? He can hit it a country mile but I’ve never been convinced that he can be a consistent ML hitter. Sorry.