What’s wrong with Jason Heyward? It’s a blip in his BABIP
A non-mechanical hug might do the trick. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
Writing for ESPN Insider, Dayn Perry of FanGraphs asks the question many among us have asked: What happened to Jason Heyward? (Link requires registration.) Using the best data known to man and computers, Perry offers this telling snapshot:
Heyward is trending in the wrong direction when it comes to line-drive percentage (17.8 percent in 2010 to 13.9 percent in 2011), infield pop-ups (8.4 percent to 24.7 percent) and batting average on balls in play (.335 to .245). In the case of his declining BABIP, there’s almost certainly some bad luck involved, but the remaining indicators are more troubling.
Additionally, he’s swinging at 44.8 percent of pitches overall, up from 39.4 percent last year; and he’s swinging at 28.7 percent out of the zone after hacking at just 24.2 percent of such offerings. Add it all up and you have a guy who’s hitting fewer line drives and more pop-ups and seems to have lost control of the strike zone.
We’ve noted before that Heyward is swinging more and accomplishing less. (His batting average and on-base percentage tell us that much.) We’ve also noted that this is the truly baffling part. Unlike, say, Jordan Schafer, who has struck out a lot at every level, Heyward arrived in the majors bearing the stamp of a young player who knew the strike zone and could work a count.
Many observers — from Bobby Valentine, who’s a jerk, and Chipper Jones, who’s not — have suggested that Heyward’s “mechanics” have gone, if you will, haywire. That can happen. Ask Dan Uggla. But the bit about “losing control of the strike zone” is the puzzling part. That’s not mechanical. That’s the part young Jason Heyward seemed to have down at age 20.
And now he just turned 22 and is playing behind the journeyman Jose Constanza. Baseball is the strangest of games — again, ask Dan Uggla — but I have to admit this Heyward thing has me baffled. I could not have imagined that the rookie who was so adept at figuring things out would have forgotten how to figure.
(Oh, one thing more: Perry mentions BABIP. That stands for “batting average on balls in play.” As a yardstick, statheads love BABIP. I find it hilarious. Whenever someone mentions BABIP, I want to ask, “What’s his batting average on balls not in play?” Pretty sure that’d be .000.)
Update: I’ve been reliably informed that home runs don’t count as “balls in play.” (Unless, I can only assume, they’re inside-the-park home runs.) So you can have a batting average above .000 on balls not in play. And yes, my eyes are glazing over.
By Mark Bradley
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402 comments Add your comment
Hankie Aron
August 23rd, 2011
10:01 am
PHIL- If he’s hitting like this next year by the trade deadline, The mantra will be “he looks real good in that Royals uni”
Boise in ATL
August 23rd, 2011
10:06 am
I am sure this is very frustrating for Heyward.
Ronnie Gant went through the same thing – his average was dropped like a lead baloon – his timing was off – this guy really struggled. Cox sent him down to single A – then promoted him through the ranks as he regained confidence. Very humbling for Gant – but it took him out of the spotlight – allowed him to focus on hitting – and progress through quality of pitching. Saved Gants career.
Heyward is very young – so this might be a good approach.
ClemsonBrad
August 23rd, 2011
10:07 am
I gotta believe J-Hey will be okay. Too much is in his head at this point. He has had alot chances to snap out of his slump, but to be fair, not nearly as much as Dan Uggla. He needs an offseason to rework things. I still think he the biggest piece of the future of the Atlanta Braves. I don’t see him being another “Frenchie” for us either. (I Still love Frenchie though!!)
Mark, What do you think he needs to do? I think a productive off-season is the absolute key. Chipper is right. It starts with your mechanics. If J-Hey’s mechanins aren’t good right now…it is going to mess EVERYTHING else up when you are at bat.
bvillebaron
August 23rd, 2011
10:07 am
ted williams head:
Actually BABIP is a very informative and useful stat unless, of course, you know everything about the game already.
Shaun
August 23rd, 2011
10:08 am
BABIP is just batting average on fair batted balls that wind up on the field of play. So it doesn’t account for strikeouts or homeruns.
BABIP is especially useful for determining if a pitcher is actually performing well or is actually just getting some unusually good or bad breaks and some help from his defense.
The idea is that a pitcher doesn’t have much control over whether something like a grounder just out of the reach of an infielder or a grounder that the infielder gets to and turns into an out. The pitcher more or less did his job and got the grounder on both plays. Most pitchers are going to allow hits on about 29-30 percent of fair batted balls of the long haul. If a pitcher has allowed lots of hits on fair batted balls at a higher rate than that, it’s a good indication that he’s not getting a lot of help from his defense or he’s just getting a ton of bad breaks (lots of bloops and bleeders). That pitcher is very likely due for a turnaround.
BABIP is not as useful when evaluating hitters because hitters have a little more control over batted balls that are in play. Hitters have some control to some degree over how hard they hit the ball, how they hit the ball (fly balls, line drives, grounders), where the ball is going, how squarely they are hitting the ball. But BABIP still is useful to some degree for the same reasons as it is useful for evaluating pitchers. If a hitter’s BABIP is off from his norms and everything else looks alright, he’s probably getting a lot of breaks or fewer breaks than the norm.
Regarding Heyward, he has a higher walk rate than Chipper or McCann, so the problem is probably more swing than some sort of loss of plate discipline and control of the strikezone. And injury is the most likely culprit. Not that everything else is perfect. But I’m guessing the shoulder issue is a major factor.
anotherdawg
August 23rd, 2011
10:09 am
Well, we can’t blame it on Terry Pendleton. lol. Baseball can be a weird game. Just look at Uggla earlier this year. He looked lost at the plate. Now he’s went from a “bust” to one of the most powerful hitters in the league. I think we need to just give the kid some time, and with Constanza’s ankle, he’s gonna get a chance to sort it out.
Conspiracy Theorist
August 23rd, 2011
10:11 am
I just think there is something going on that we do not yet know about. Personal, injury, or otherwise.
Get back in there Heyward!
I’ve always had my doubts about TP as well, but I could just be a naysayer in that regard. Hope he is not screwing up JH.
Shaun
August 23rd, 2011
10:13 am
BABIP is useful because thing like batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage don’t account for a grounder just out of the reach of an infielder versus a grounder that ends up in an infielder’s glove, though there isn’t much difference in those two types of batted balls. It’s more useful for evaluating pitchers.
MatthewH
August 23rd, 2011
10:14 am
Mark,
I’m not a big fan of Bobby Valentine either, but why the hate?
James
August 23rd, 2011
10:14 am
Could it stem from a new batting coach? Where is Larry Parrish anyway?
Bill
August 23rd, 2011
10:14 am
The kid has a problem we all agree..should have been sent down to AAA for a few games to work on it. I do believe he will come around. The guestion is when. Bring up Gartrell and let Haywire go down…GET Well CONSTANZA!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Shaun
August 23rd, 2011
10:15 am
Heyward has walked more often than Chipper and McCann. The problem is related more to swing than a lack of discipline or command of the strikezone. Probably due a lot to the shoulder issue.
Bill
August 23rd, 2011
10:18 am
Don’t blame Parrish..Larry didn’t change his way of hitting, He is doing just like Uggla did, trying everything and its not working. Chipper has even worked with him. have faith .
stinger
August 23rd, 2011
10:18 am
I like Constanza I think he’s the best option for now. But look at Ugla, he turned it around but he was playing everyday..gonna be hard for Heyward to turn it around when he’s not playing much.
Constanza’s done, Heyward needs to get back « Braves Banter
August 23rd, 2011
10:20 am
[...] the real question now is, can Heyward fix his swing? Advertisement GA_googleAddAttr("AdOpt", "1"); GA_googleAddAttr("Origin", "other"); [...]
MA
August 23rd, 2011
10:21 am
BABIP on not in play? Well if you could divide by zero that might be possible. Back to remedial math Bradley.
JeanE
August 23rd, 2011
10:21 am
I’m not a baseball stathead or expert but it’s pretty obvious it’s all mental which has in turn affected his mechanics. He’s lost his confidence, very apparent. When he gets it back, who knows? I think they’re right to play Constanza, he is hitting and his speed combined with Bourn’s is a killer for oppposing teams.
Shaun
August 23rd, 2011
10:22 am
BABIP also doesn’t take into account strikeouts.
It basically tells you if a hitter or a pitcher are getting helped or hurt by defense and luck to a larger or smaller degree than normal.
buckhead benny
August 23rd, 2011
10:24 am
Its called believing the “HYPE” and letting fame deter you from what got you there. When you have players basically saying on your own team I think he is okay enough to be playing- that is a head issue, that has to do with trying to worry too much about your batting average and image than working your a** off to get back to help your teammates out.
I believe Karma bit him in the *ss. He felt maybe he was above team to play hurt so oh well now your jockeying for a job bro. Chipper doesn’t call too many guys out unless thats what the coaches and the rest of his teammates were thinking.
the word on the street is he is going out on the ATL nightlife scene a lot and enjoying his new found fame immensely. Which has detoured many a great pro athlete before.
Shaun
August 23rd, 2011
10:24 am
The most obvious explanation is injury and all the mechanical issues in a swing that result from injury. Could be something more and it’s probably not quite that simple, but that’s probably the major culprit.
LawDawg
August 23rd, 2011
10:25 am
Atlanta has to have the biggest bunch of knee-jerk moron fans in the entire country. “This guy who just turned 22 (22!) and has massive talent is done because after having injuries he has played poorly. Ship him to KC so that Constanza can have the .330 45 140 season we know he would have without Heyward around. Oh, and all those pitchers had bad starts at various times this season. We should cut the whole team and just play the Gwinnett Braves. World Series champions!!!”
braves fan forever
August 23rd, 2011
10:26 am
Heyward shows no concentration at the plate.Wild swings.not into the game.
Bill Gullion
August 23rd, 2011
10:27 am
Maybe after a couple of times around the league other teams have learned to pitch to him. It happene all the time. emember Francour!
Larry
August 23rd, 2011
10:31 am
Will you goobers please stop blaming pitching coaches past and present for every hitter’s issues or a team’s offensive slumps? Larry Parrish has never walked to the plate with Jayson Heyward!
I played for nine years and a hitting/batting coach can only offer suggestions and observations; it’s totally up to the individual to listen, not listen, employ or utterly disregard a hitting coach’s suggestions when he’s alone at the plate. By the MLB level, after 15 or more years of swinging a bat thousands upon thousands of times, a hitting coach has about as much to do with a batter’s performance as Bobby Cox had on the way Maddux pitched–very minimal.
Like Francoeur before him, Heyward is a very tall, sweep swinging batter with somewhat of an upright, almost awkward looking batting stance. Again like Francoeur he broke in as a virtual unknown and made an immediate impact with his bat, his arm, his glove, his reputation and all the expectations that go with this, but clearly with both an experienced eye could tell their stance, swing, mechanics, and “guess” hitting style would ultimately be diagnosed, dissected, disclosed and therefore exploited by the pitchers and their pitching coaches.
Heyward’s issue is simple–he hasn’t adjusted his mechanics and approach and thus the same fate as Francoeur. Until he does, the results will not change; and if he doesn’t, he’ll slowly spiral down to just another “one hit wonder” the likes of former top Braves prospects like Mike Kelly (”the next Barry Bonds” he was called or a Brad Komminsk–another big, strong guy with a quirky, robotic looking swing who was to be “the next Dale Murphy.”
Neither Parish, Gonzalez, Mom. Dad or the Tooth Fairy can help this 22 year old MAN in the batter’s box right now. The ball’s squarely in his court and he’ll either adjust and be as good as he can be or he’ll not adjust and, like Francoeur, be wearing a different uniform in the near future as this TEAM has too much promise and options to get sidetracked playing a baby sitter to Heyward.
The ball, literally and figuratively, is in Mr. Heyward’s court!
Bud
August 23rd, 2011
10:31 am
Advanced metrics are a joke. Either you get on base, or you don’t get on base. Keep it simple, maybe someone should say that to Heyward.
Chi Town
August 23rd, 2011
10:32 am
He is lazy
Laughing
August 23rd, 2011
10:33 am
Jason Heyward is highly intelligent and may be “thinking” too much at the plate. Yes, he has had to deal with high expectations and injuries, but I also can’t forget Bobby getting on his case last year about taking too many pitches. J-Hey is a great kid who wants nothing more than to help this team. He has far too much talent to be cast aside as dead wood, particularly at the age of 22. Since any true Braves fan would be pulling for Jason to succeed, let’s hope management helps him get straightened out, be it playing regular for Atlanta or in the minors for a while. Jason needs playing time, not bench time. GO J-HEY! GO BRAVES!
Larry
August 23rd, 2011
10:33 am
Where’s my relevant, non provocative, non inflammatory, non vulgar post, Mark.
This is getting ridiculous and you’re about to lose a customer!
JSS
August 23rd, 2011
10:34 am
There is nothing wrong with Heyward that 1. A real rehab period on that shoulder, 2. Some time away from all of those hitting gurus in the Atlanta dugout that have never fixed one mixed up hitters swing (the list is long), and finally 3. Real confidence in trusting himself in the batters box can’t cure!
benchwarmer
August 23rd, 2011
10:36 am
Yep, Hayward is at that crossroads that comes to all who enter the big league. Once you’ve been around the circuit for a turn or two the opposition begins to have a book on you. Can he adapt and prove his hype.? Welll, maybe. It does seem that there is general agreement that injuries have hurt his swing. If that is the problem then timing is real bad. The answer is that only time can tell. Right now it seems that he is not able to add enough to play regularly. By the way where is McOut?1
carlchamblee
August 23rd, 2011
10:36 am
Agree with those who have correctly pointed out how stupid Bobby Cox was to mess with Heyward’s approach. Then add Chipper (who has missed the equivalent of 2 seasons with owies since 2004) mouthing off publicly about him needing to play hurt.
Great leadership. All Heyward needs is to go somewhere else to flourish but hopefully he can get it straightened out here.
Chase
August 23rd, 2011
10:39 am
What’s wrong is you idiots in the media inflated his ego by making him think he will just coast and be a star. Pitchers have figured out where to pitch him and he hasn’t adjusted again bc last year, you made him the next coming of hank.
carlchamblee
August 23rd, 2011
10:39 am
Cheap, unnecessary, immature, petty shot at Valentine.
Here’s a clue Bradley – if you want to call out jerks try not to be one yourself.
The article and your readers didn’t need that.
Ben
August 23rd, 2011
10:40 am
its his second year, give him some time. hes still young
Tom
August 23rd, 2011
10:40 am
Why do you people continue to bash Frenchy, he was a good kid too(just like JasonH) when he was with us? Comparing the two players, Jeff never hit as low as JasonH(even on his worst year), had more HRS, RBI’s and threw out many base runners from RF attempting that extra base! He continues to do that today, 7 years later. JasonH has never thrown out a base runner, to my knowledge? Get off bashing Frenchy. you couch-potatoes!! Now about JasonH, big league pitchers are over his head at this time, he needs to be at AAA or AA getting 4 or 5 AB’s per game. OJT should be on the farm not at the bigs! That is his best shot at coming out of it? Gartrell at Gwinnett AAA needs to be brought up( I think his BA is .260, 26 HRS, 82 RBI’s) to replace him. We gave Constanza his shot and see how that worked out. Don’t give me that crap about him not being on the 40 man roster, they can make it happen if they wanted to. This is a business, the best players should be on the team and in the field, not some feel-good story about a player!
JENIUS
August 23rd, 2011
10:45 am
Herschel Talker is right.
It was Cox and Pendleton last year that said JH need to stop taking so many pitches because pitchers would start throwing more out of the zone. They drilled it into him to swing for the fences instead of being a line drive hitter
Gman84
August 23rd, 2011
10:46 am
Heyward hasn’t been the same since his first stint on the DL last year. Basically he had a great start to his career and has declined ever since. Is it possible we’ve seen his best already? If he wasn’t so hyped we would never consider him a sure thing based on what we’ve seen.
JSS
August 23rd, 2011
10:51 am
And this garbage sounds like the mess floating around when Darrell Evans was all fouled up at the plate back in 1976. The Braves dumped him and he got back on track in the Bay area before really finding his stride in Detroit…
BoatDoc
August 23rd, 2011
10:51 am
I liked the recent article about Chipper Jones watching Heyward in the cage with Coach Parrish and seeing several things he thought he could improve. My recollection was that Chipper said Jason’s swing was not adaptable – if a pitcher throws a ball in his wheelhouse he can crush it, but the rest of the league scouted that, so balls don’t show up in the Heyward crush zone often.
I looked it up – Carroll Rogers gets the credit:
“By the time he was done talking, the three of them had been in the cage for an hour. Jones had showed Heyward a tee drill trying to encourage him to hit inside the ball, so he can drive even inside pitches up the middle.
“His hands had to be killing him, but he got the gist of what we were saying,” said Jones, who also emphasized using left field. “Guy can hit the ball out of the yard anywhere. He’s got too much talent to be doing what he’s doing. If you’re thinking left center and you get a fastball in, you drop the hands inside and hit a bullet right back up the middle. Good hitters do it all the time.”
This was in New York two weeks ago. Time for a little extra Chipper-Jason BP? Should Chipper negotiate for a “turn Heyward’s swing around unofficial hitting coach” bonus if Jason starts tearing the cover off the ball again?
JENIUS
August 23rd, 2011
10:54 am
Isn’t it a lot more fun watching baseball now that it’s back to hitting, running and good pitching and not steroid ball?
Fans are more turned on by 3-2 scores than 9-7. The league let the steroids go because they thought the homers created more fan interest. WRONG!
Furman Bitcher
August 23rd, 2011
10:55 am
Shuddduppp fool. If Bradley thinks he is a jerk he probably knows for sure.
Obee
August 23rd, 2011
10:55 am
Exactly how do you fix a swing meant for MLB by being sent down and facing AAA pitchers?
carlchamblee
August 23rd, 2011
10:55 am
Jenius – yup and Cox did it publicly. The Great Legend Bobby Cox who was a player’s manager and always defended them and had their backs and would never call them out to the media no matter how poorly they performed.
Imagine a young kid who grew up in the Atlanta area fully aware of all this. He makes it to his hometown team and tears it up, demonstrating a patience and batting eye that even few veterans display. He cools off for the first time, early in his first season, and hears this legendary “player’s manager” telling the world that his approach at the plate needs to completely change, the approach that got Jason to where he is and that he knew in his heart was the right one. The same manager who would stick with a washed up veteran forever and praise the guy endlessly when asked why.
Does anyone thinks that didn’t completely F with his head and his confidence? Please.
Shaun
August 23rd, 2011
10:55 am
Francoeur had red flags in his performance throughout his minor league career, namely that he didn’t walk a lot and he always struck out a lot more than he walked…against minor league pitchers.
No one noticed Francoeur wasn’t that good a player because his RBI totals. But RBI totals are a result of opportunity not necessarily whether a hitter was good.
WinderDawg
August 23rd, 2011
10:56 am
I’ll take Francoeur….
Allan
August 23rd, 2011
10:57 am
Why do people wear their ignorance as a badge of honor? Or, better yet, how do they make a living off it?
Pal Joey
August 23rd, 2011
11:00 am
Instead of sending Heyward back to Gwinnett to let him get his stroke back, the Braves insisted on leaving him in there day after day to become more confused and befuddled with each plate appearance. He obviously has no feel for the plate right now and it would have been much better to send him down and let him work through it outside the glare of major league scrutiny. It’s too late now since Sept. 1 is fast approaching. But if they don’t do something with him the first part of next year, he may very well end up the way Francoeur did and we will have lost a potential talent that showed so much promise last year. You have to wonder about the hitting instruction he is getting here considering what happened to Francoeur and to Uggla the first part of this year. May be pure coincidence, but it does seem very strange. Let’s hope the Braves will work with Jason over the winter and try to salvage his career. He has way too much potential to squander.
welikebaseball2
August 23rd, 2011
11:01 am
Heyward will be fine. Parrish, on the other hand, won’t be fine. Some “fanatic” on here likened Freeman to McCann. Seriously? Already? Freeman’s not even completed a full year in the majors & you already know this? Don’t get me wrong, Freeman looks to be the real deal…& I hope he is. It’s just that lots of players tear it up their first time through the league’s pitching (see Constanza). Please, “fanatics,” reserve the Freeman’s-the-one hype until we see how he fairs next season, after pitchers have had a chance to adjust to him like they have Heyward. Again, I’m hoping for the best, but hold your horses.
DC
August 23rd, 2011
11:03 am
Heyward needs to work with B-Macs buddy who helped him on his swing..Heyward isn’t going to be like this forever..he is in a funk and will get through it.
KP
August 23rd, 2011
11:04 am
Wouldn’t hurt to send him down for a week to Gwinett so he could play everyday and try and get things worked out??