SEC expansion: It’ll happen soon, and there’ll be a 14th team
One of these teams would balance Texas A&M, and not the one in gold. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
For a dizzying minute, it seemed Texas A&M might land in the SEC soon enough to qualify for the 2011 conference title. Then the SEC offered no invitation and the Aggies decided to take a moment to assess options, and some folks are taking this to mean the whole deal — not there ever was an actual deal, but you take my meaning — is off.
To such folks, I offer this from Jackson Browne, who may or may not have ever seen a college football game: “Don’t think it won’t happen just because it hasn’t happened yet.”
The key point: Texas A&M wants out of the Big 12 because it hates the thought of sharing a shrunken conference with the overweening Texas Longhorns, who are about to launch their own TV network in collaboration with, wouldn’t you know, ESPN. Before it jumps, A&M wants to find a soft place to land. The SEC has made it clear it’s willing to be that place.
No, the SEC hasn’t said so. On Sunday its presidents met and “reaffirmed our satisfaction with the current 12-institutional alignment.” But this is posturing. The SEC, with its five consecutive BCS titles and its billion-dollar TV contracts, doesn’t want to irk anybody by appearing grabby. (The New York Times has reported that SEC commissioner Mike Slive had a heated phone conversation with Dan Beebe, his Big 12 counterpart, last week.)
The SEC has to figure out how to finesse this so its coming expansion — and expansion is absolutely coming — won’t leave the league mired in lawsuits or render it a villain in the court of public opinion. The SEC will be happy to ask Texas A&M into its living room when the Aggies officially say, “Please.” And they will.
The SEC also needs time to triangulate. The best conference isn’t going to sit on an uneven number. It needs a 14th team, and maybe a 15th and a 16th. It was rumored over the weekend that Florida State was SEC-bound, along with Clemson and Missouri, two schools that have nothing in common. The SEC’s problem won’t be in finding a new member or even three new members; the problem will be in identifying the best fit.
The Big 12 is already down to 10, and would Oklahoma want to remain in a league in which, due to the Longhorn Network, it faces a competitive imbalance? The ACC’s ballyhooed expansion hasn’t worked, and the schools who care most about football — Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech — must ask themselves if they want to linger in a conference that has had a hard time drumming up interest in its championship game. (In existence only since 2005, the ACC title tilt is on its third city.)
Loading ...If you’re the SEC, would the proper complement to Texas A&M be another Big 12 refugee? Or would Virginia Tech, say, offer better geographic balance than, say, Oklahoma? The Aggies would give the SEC even deeper entree into the fertile recruiting ground of Texas, but Oklahoma recruits Texas, too. Would Florida State do anything to broaden the SEC base? Would Clemson? (Remember, the league already has members in both states.)
A factoid to note: The conference hasn’t expanded with Slive as commissioner. Indeed, each of the other five BCS leagues has taken on new members since the SEC grew to 12 in 1991. Even as critics contend that college football is out of control, it must be said that college football’s flagship league has been content to go with what it has.
As the landscape keeps changing and bigger programs come into play, the SEC cannot be content much longer. It wouldn’t want Texas A&M and Oklahoma follow Nebraska to the Big Ten. If high-profile programs are determined to relocate, the SEC will be duty-bound to open its gated community.
It will, but not just yet. The Texas A&M scenario flared so fast that nobody was ready for it. By the end of the year, Slive will have done his due diligence and his league will be ready to grow. To 14 teams, I’ll venture, with Virginia Tech being the 14th.
By Mark Bradley
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465 comments Add your comment
Real Dawgs drink POWER-aid: SEC,SEC,SEC !!!!!!!!!
August 18th, 2011
6:11 am
Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama will keep Ga Tech out of the SEC.
Florida, LSU, and South Carolina will keep FSU out of the SEC.
Va.Tech and Clemson are happy in the ACC and will never leave.
Louisville’s attempt to join the SEC will be contested by Kentucky, but the Wildcats don’t have enough clout alone to keep the Cardinals out of the SEC if the league wants to expand its basketball and football footprint. Thus, UK will be silenced and the SEC will deliberate on adding the Louisville Cardinals with the Wildcat’s dissenting vote.
Gusto
August 18th, 2011
8:38 am
WIth the allegations going on with Miami in ACC…
I dont’ think it’ll be long at all before we see FSU, VT or Clemson begging to join the SEC
LawDawg
August 18th, 2011
3:29 pm
I do not care nearly as much about expanding the footprint and traveling into new markets as keeping the identifiable SEC brand. I think TAM, OU, FSU, Clemson, and VT all fit that bill, luckily.
I think it is short-sighted to look only at the dollars raised from reaching new markets without considering whether the brand is thereby dilluted. That said, if they are going to expand, I would rather go whole hog and bring in 4 of the 5. Clemson and FSU make the most sense, TAM and VT expand into new markets, but it is hard to argue OU should not be taken over Clemson or even FSU.
LawDawg
August 18th, 2011
3:31 pm
“Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama will keep Ga Tech out of the SEC.
Florida, LSU, and South Carolina will keep FSU out of the SEC.
Va.Tech and Clemson are happy in the ACC and will never leave.”
None of this makes any sense.
beebee
August 18th, 2011
3:57 pm
whomever said they should reduce the number of teams overall and make it like the NFL has a GREAT idea! For one thing, that way we won’t have to stress over teams practically needing to go undefeated to win a national championship.
Virginia Tech: Better in the SEC or the ACC? A Hokie Perspective. » All Sports Discussion
August 18th, 2011
7:52 pm
[...] Mark Bradley of the Atlantic Journal-Constitution says that SEC expansion will happen with Texas A&M and wagers that Virginia Tech will be the 14t…; [...]
BIG DADDY CANEDAWG: SEC,SEC,SEC !!!!!!!!!
August 19th, 2011
3:36 am
When will you people get it in your thick heads once and for all NO ACC TEAMS WILL EVER SECEDE THE ACC FOR THE SEC !!
THE SEC DOES NOT WANT ANY ACC TEAMS. THE SEC IS ONLY INTERESTED IN TEAMS THAT WILL FREE THEMSELVES FROM LAME DUCK CONFERENCES. THE BIG XII & BIG EAST ARE LAME DUCK CONFERENCES WHICH ARE IN DANGER OF HAVING TEAMS SECEDE TO JOIN STRONGER POWER CONFERENCES !!! NEBRASKA & COLORADO LEFT THE BIG XII AND TEXAS A&M AND MISSOURI WILL BE NEXT TO LEAVE THEN THE CONFERENCE WILL FOLD ONCE AND FOR ALL.
THE ACC IS NOT IN DANGER OF LOSING ANY OF ITS MEMBERS TO THE SEC, SO JUST STOP WASTING YOUR TIME WISHING FOR SOMETHING YOU NEVER WILL GET !! NONE OF THE ACC TEAMS HAVE PETITIONED THE SEC AS THE AGGIES HAVE FOR MEMBERSHIP, BECAUSE THEY KEEP TELLING EVERYBODY HOW HAPPY THEY ARE IN THE ACC. THE BEST ACC FOOTBALL TEAMS ARE IN THE ACC BECAUSE THEY NEVER WANTED TO PLAY SEC TEAMS IN A SEASON IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE MIGHTY FSU SEMINOLES HAVE LOST 7 OF THE LAST 8 GAMES TO THE FLORIDA GATORS ALONE, DO YOU REALLY THINK THEY WANT TO PLAY AN SEC SCHEDULE ? VA. TECH VENTURED INTO SEC COUNTRY ONCE VERSUS ALABAMA LAST YEAR AND YOU KNOW WHAT HAPPENED ! CLEMSON REFUSES TO KEEP GEORGIA ON THEIR SCHEDULE. SO JUST CUT IT OUT AND HOPE FOR THE ACC TO EXPAND TO 16 TEAMS BY RAIDING WHAT’S LEFT OF THE BIG EAST AFTER THE SEC GETS LOUISVILLE AND WEST VIRGINIA !!!
BIG DADDY CANEDAWG: SEC,SEC,SEC !!!!!!!!!
August 19th, 2011
3:56 am
OH YEAH, DIDN’T CLEMSON STUMBLE INTO ATLANTA RECENTLY AND GOT THEMSELVES HUMILIATED BY THE CRIMSON TIDE ? MY MEMORY IS FADING … MAYBE I DREAMED ALABAMA BLEW OUT CLEMSON A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO !!! CORRECT ME IF I’M WRONG AND LET ME KNOW IF CLEMSON HAS SET UP A REMATCH WITH THE TIDE.
OH YEAH 2 : CLEMSON SHOWED A LOT OF HEART BEFORE THEY LOST TO sCAM NEWTON AND AUBURN LAST SEASON. THEY REPRESENTED THE ACC WELL, BUT NOT EVEN ESPN COULD PAY CLEMSON TO SECede THE ACC FOR THE SEC !!! DITTO FOR FSU, DITTO FOR VA TECH !!!
AND BEST OF ALL THE SEC DOESN’T WANT OR NEED ANY ACC SCHOOLS TO WATER DOWN THE BEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONFERENCE IN THE WORLD !!
THE SEC ONLY WANTS SCHOOLS THAT WILL EXPAND THE CONFERENCE FOOTPRINT !!
BIG DADDY CANEDAWG: SEC,SEC,SEC !!!!!!!!!
August 19th, 2011
4:17 am
http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2011/08/13/which-acc-schools-fit-into-sec-expansion/
GO THERE TO SEE THE REAL PROS AND CONS OF EVERY ACC MEMBERS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IF THEY WERE CRAZY ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE ACC FOR THE SEC.
TGIF !!
Texas Bob
August 19th, 2011
5:18 pm
Texas A and M still has a way to go in football I’ll admit. But even with Texas big ESPoNu contract they didn’t break the top pre 10 this year and A and M did. However, better be afraid of A and M in baskeball (the women won it last year), track(men and women won it this year),baseball(men invited to the playoffs), softball(women in top nearly every year), tennis(men’s doubles won it this year. Would be a great plus to SEC for all the other sports other than football. And, football is on the rise again in Aggieland. A and M leaders have to know the SEC would help improve their football program. Sogadog, I agree with you except one thing, Texas is in the Southwest. Remember the old Southwest Conference?
MAD DAWG
August 19th, 2011
5:44 pm
Just because the SEC may not invade the ACC for teams doesn’t mean the Big 10+2 won’t. The must vunerable ACC school is Maryland. The Terp’s athletic program is running millions in the red and may need a major bailout if things don’t change. Maryland could possibly end up leaving the ACC for a financial offer they can’t refuse from the Big Ten. Hopefully the Terps will resolve their financial woes and remain in the ACC.
Things are kind of shaky in other places in the ACC, but it should remain intact. Ga Tech was stripped of an ACC title over a player’s $300 impropriety, North Carolina dumped a head coach just before the season kickoff and is awaiting NCAA trial and Miami has a convicted liar/criminal driving the Ncaa and press into a feeding frenzy of speculation about the program most love to hate.
I guess the best thing for the ACC right now is their “gentleman’s agreement” with the SEC that the SEC will not expand at the ACC’s expense. But the ACC does not have such an agreement with the Big Ten+2.
GO DAWGS !!
DeWahoo
August 22nd, 2011
1:43 pm
As a UVA man, I sure hope Tech doesn’t go to the SEC. That said, I wouldn’t blame them if they did. Got to remember the ACC never wanted Tech. They wanted Syracuse, BC, and Miami. It took Governor Warner to pressure UVA into backing Tech’s entry into the ACC. Tech going to the SEC would give it a huge recruiting advantage over UVA, UNC, and UMD. In terms of rivalries, the UVA-VT game would continue. Tech could quickly develop a real good rivalry with U. Tennessee, which, I think, is only about four hours away.
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August 22nd, 2011
6:41 pm
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colonel
August 23rd, 2011
11:42 am
It’s about cash – and lots of it. Lucrative television contracts are based on viewing audiences. With three of the nation’s top 20 metro areas in Texas, the addition of A&M substantially increases the SEC’s viewing audience (some estimate by more than 1/3). The SEC has a lucrative contract with ESPN which will balloon if A&M makes it’s move. Could A&M simply be using the SEC as leverage?
Logically, the SEC would need to add a 14th school. But let’s face it, the big prize here is A&M and the mega bucks it brings with it. A&M is frankly tired of being the Longhorns bitch and it finally has the clout to negotiate a deal that could rival the one that Bevo (or is that Butthead) cut in forming its own network while refusing to share with its Big 12 mates.
My sources (and they are pretty good) tell me that A&M’s departure is “imminent”. But the matter is complicated by the fact that ESPN who also has a contract with the Big 12, does not want to be seen as a facilitator in breaking up the league. My guess is that ESPN is working hard to find an acceptable replacement for A&M so the league can retain its status as the Big 1 and the nine little dwarfs (10 schools in all) and ESPN’s option to terminate its agreement with the Big 12 is not triggered. Until this happens, ESPN will be reluctant to negotiate with the SEC and the SEC (at least to some extent) may be reluctant to finalize its deal with A&M.
colonel
August 23rd, 2011
12:16 pm
Regarding a 14th school, as much as I would hate to see Beamer ball in the SEC, Va Tech would be the logical choice. It would expand the SEC’s footprint and allow the SEC to tap into another top 10 market. Sorry FSU, but I don’t think Florida ever gives you a seat at the table facing the loss of any recruiting advantage it may currently enjoy through its membership in the SEC. I’m not sure how strongly South Carolina feels about Clemson, but I don’t think Clemson adds anything. Assuming North Carolina and NC State are committed to preserving whatever they have in the research triangle, it’s difficult to come up with a good second choice. Oklahoma has its nose way too far up Bevo’s hind to move anywhere. Perhaps Mizzou will turn out to be the crack in the Big 12’s armor. St Louis is a top 25 market.