I don’t like trading pitching, but I’d swap Mike Minor for Beltran
October 2004: Carlos Beltran homers yet again; Jaret Wright surrenders. (AP photo)
The Braves have cause to beware the prospect(s)-for-rental-player trade. They’ve been burned twice this century: Once in December 2003, when they shipped Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright to St. Louis for a year’s worth of J.D. Drew, and again in July 2007 when they sent the entire farm system — OK, not really — to Texas for 364 days of Mark Teixeira’s services.
And now, another trade deadline close at hand, we here have reason to ponder the merits of another rumored young-for-old swap. The Mets are looking to divest themselves of Carlos Beltran, who will become a free agent at season’s end. (And if you’re thinking the Braves might have a chance to keep Beltran longer-term, forget it. His agent, as was the case with Drew and Teixeira, is Scott Boras.)
Owing to money problems from Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, the Mets have money problems. They’re not looking for big names. They’re in need of cheap young arms. The Braves have ‘em. It has been reported that the Mets dispatched a scout to watch Mike Minor work for Gwinnett against Louisville on Thursday. (Might not have been the best night to catch him: Six innings, 10 hits, six runs, three earned.)
We ask: Two months plus postseason of Beltran against the next five years of Minor — would you do it?
I would.
As a rule, I hate trading young pitchers. (Mention the names of John Smoltz and Jair Jurrjens to a Tigers fan.) I would under no circumstances — if the Rangers offered Josh Hamilton I might rethink, but only then — part with Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino, and I’m on record as saying I wouldn’t swap Brandon Beachy for Carlos Quentin, the White Sox outfielder who can become a free agent after next season.
But Minor-for-Beltran I’d do, for two reasons. First, Beltran plays center field, which means he’d fill an immediate need. (Quentin is a corner outfielder.) Second, I’m not crazy about Minor.
When the Braves drafted him in Round 1 out of Vanderbilt in 2009, the ESPN analyst Keith Law suggested they’d erred. But not every guy you pick in Round 1 has to wind up in your rotation to have value: If Minor can be turned into Beltran and Beltran hits the winning home run in Game 7 of the World Series, this will go down as the greatest Braves’ No. 1 pick since Chipper Jones.
In two-plus years in the organization, Minor has done well. But he’s not in the majors, and those who justified drafting him did so in the belief he was already close to being big-league ready. He has been lapped by Beachy, who wasn’t drafted at all, and will soon be passed by Teheran. And if Beachy vis-a-vis Minor had been a close call, the Braves would have erred on the side of the lefthander, seeing as how their rotation lacks one. But it’s not close.
Minor isn’t another Wainwright, who clearly projected as a No. 1 starter. Minor might top out as a No. 4 man. He’s the kind of good-but-not-great prospect who’s made to go in a deadline deal. He is, to dip into Braves’ history, a Melvin Nieves.
Melvin Nieves was a promising outfielder in a stacked farm system who became the key name in the Fred McGriff trade of July 1993. The Padres wanted Ryan Klesko, who was the prospect of the moment, but the Braves wouldn’t bite. (Nor was John Schuerholz moved to part with Chipper or Javy Lopez or even Mike Kelly or Tony Tarasco. Like I said: Stacked farm system) They held out and got the guy they needed at the price they wanted.
Loading ...The parallel isn’t exact — McGriff didn’t become a free agent until after the Braves won the World Series in 1995, and they had enough money back then to keep him — but it’s close enough. The Braves were good but not good enough in July 1993. (With no wild card back then, they had to catch San Francisco. They did.) Good as these Braves are, they might be one bat short of winning the World Series.
If the Braves don’t land Beltran, they might have to face him in October: The Phillies, Giants and Red Sox are all believed to have similar interest. The Braves saw him in postseason once before. He hit four home runs, three at Turner Field, against them as a rent-an-Astro in 2004. He signed with the Mets for Joe Johnson money that winter.
The Braves helped make Beltran a rich man. If he helps make the Braves a world champ, we’ll call it even.
By Mark Bradley
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313 comments Add your comment
JC Boscan III
July 24th, 2011
10:55 pm
.or maybe not…….
Art
July 24th, 2011
11:02 pm
Well maybe the Braves need to build the rest of the bullpen as they need to get rid of Proctor, Linebrink, Gearin, Martinez – whos left oh yes the only 3 that are pitching O;Flaherty, Venters and Kimbrell.
GT-97
July 24th, 2011
11:04 pm
Bradley is the best.
PLEASE COVER MORE GT;
positive or negative.
I love reading your takes.
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
11:07 pm
It’s a tough situation. If you keep throwing O’Flaherty, Venters, and Kimbrell their arms will fall off. If you send in one of the other guys it’s almost like giving up.
It doesn’t help that Fredi still thinks you can’t use your closer unless it’s a save situation. Bad personnel, bad bullpen management.
Ah well, I’m out. Hopefully they get it going against the first place (!) Pirates tomorrow.
CHUCK UGA
July 24th, 2011
11:12 pm
DUMP LINEBRINK AND THE AWFUL SCOTT PROCTOR. DO IT NOW!
Fan of the Game
July 24th, 2011
11:12 pm
Heyward is terrible. I hate to say it but I agree with Valentine (and I can’t stand him) that his swing has got to change. It is all or nothing and we are getting nothing pretty consistently.
Worst to First
July 24th, 2011
11:47 pm
what is with people on here? Do yall think we are gonna have Tehran, Vizciano, Delgado and minor on the same rotation one day or something? that will not ever happen. young pitching is a bargaining chip and the only one the braves have. Minor has shown little in his starts above AAA. this would be a great trade even if minor becomes a 25 game winner (unlikely). We will not go anywhere this year if we dont make this move. we are not giving up multiple prospects we are giving up one who has had his chance to win a job and hasnt.
don
July 24th, 2011
11:59 pm
Joe, you sound just like the nitwits who said that the Braves were only sending “could bes” to Texas for that sure thing- “Big Tex”. Well, BT was a waste, the new Rangers have excelled, and Texas is far superior to the Braves.
needforspeed
July 25th, 2011
12:13 am
You need to look at the whole picture and do a little home work. Beltran would just be a patch. And you would be giving away too much to get him. A much better trade would could be delt for Jacoby Ellsbury from the Redsox, they are hurting with Jon lester being out and the Braves could have a golden chance to move Lowe. Another trade move could be made for Jeff Francoure (13 HR/60 rbi, 15 SB) …for Mclouth. Melky Cabaera would be another (switch hitter, 12/57) The Royals are ribe for changes right now and who would blame them. But dont trade the house for a mouse.
Thomas
July 25th, 2011
12:30 am
Chipper was a very loud voice crying out for the Mark Texeira trade some years ago and we all see how one sided that trade turned out to be. I say we need help in the bullpen and from the right side of the plate. Beltran is better from the left side where we have abundance, and the asking price is too much for two months and the uncertainty that he will get off like he did for Houston some years ago.
Thomas
July 25th, 2011
12:33 am
I would advise Wren not to make this trade, I would rather Marlon Byrd or B.J. Upton. To trade a pitching prospect for Beltran at this stage of his career and for two months is too expensive.
Mitchell
July 25th, 2011
12:33 am
The Braves are nothing without their pitching.
In fact, they’re not even all that great with it at the moment.
But what happens if Tommy, Beachy or any of the starters goes down at any point in the next two months? Who’s going to step up if we trade Minor?
Teheran? Delgado? What about in the playoffs? We want them starting?
I don’t think so.
Mike Minor is here now. He can pitch. We need all we can get.
And somebody please explain what Carlos Beltran would have done to alter the outcome of the three easily winnable games that we lost on this roadtrip because Freddie, McCann, Uggla, Heyward, Ross, D-Lowe and Brooks Conrad all looked pretty good with the bat at times?
Certainly, if they could all get hot at the same time a line-up with Prado, Heyward, Chipper, McCann, Uggla and Freeman would be pretty hard to beat. One extra bat there wouldn’t make that much difference.
I mean, would it?
The problem isn’t that they can’t all hit home runs if the ball is thrown right over the plate. They can.
It’s that in almost every game they’ve played this year there is that one at-bat that can swing the game heavily in their favor or keep the outcome in qustion and more often than not it seems they can’t get it done.
We know Dan Uggla can hit home runs. In fairness, without his home run Friday night we might have got swept.
But when he’s up with runners at second and third and nobody out with the Braves trailing by a run, what does he do? Swings at the first pitch and grounds it to the short-stop.
And when the bases are loaded with one out and a one run lead against the Reds, what do Jason and Brian do? Leave ‘em loaded.
Forget Beltran. Fire Larry Parrish.
Jeff
July 25th, 2011
1:03 am
Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, a THOUSAND TIMES, NO.
Do NOT make this deal.
Beltran is old and he’s too expensive and he will be gone by Halloween. And we’re going to strengthen a division rival’s pitching staff for THAT?
I am as big a Braves fan as anybody, but Atlanta is NOT going to win the World Series this year. Period. We are not GOING to the World Series. Period. In a 7-game series (NLCS or WS), we do NOT match up well with a Philly or a Boston… heck, I’m worried about getting past Milwaukee or San Francisco! And in recent weeks, have we not lost series to the Rangers, the Diamondbacks, the Mets, and now the Reds?
This is a slightly-better-than-average team. One player, albeit a center fielder, will NOT win us a division or an NL pennant. It just won’t happen. A Josh Hamilton, maybe… an Albert Pujols, maybe… an A-Rod or a Jose Bautista, maybe… but NOT Carlos Beltran.
In two months, he might hit 10 home runs, drive in 25 or 30, and be an adequate everyday center fielder. But the way I see it, you keep good young cheap pitching AT ALL COSTS. This year is shot… Uggla’s ineptness at the plate, Heyward’s injury problems, Chipper’s age, and the devastating lost injury time to Prado and Moylan made sure of that. If Uggla hit just .260 this year, if J-Hey doesn’t miss so many dang games, if Chipper & Prado only miss a week or two on the DL, and if Moylan is solid in the bullpen (so we never have to put Linebrink or Proctor out there EVER), then the Braves would be winning the East and have the best record in baseball… but as it is, we are an above-average team that has it’s moments, but it’s strength is DEFINITELY it’s pitching depth…. why give up that advantage AND give a piece to the Mets???
I don’t do this deal. I go to bat with who i’ve got, and I tell the guys in the locker room “You are paid a king’s ransom to play baseball on the Major League level… so suck it up and act like a professional!” You put the onus on the obscenely paid stars who were SUPPOSED to carry this offense — Uggla and Heyward — and you sink or swim with them.
2012 and 2013 and 2014 are the Braves years… with a nucleus of McCann, Freeman, Heyward, Prado and Schafer, and with arms like Jurrjens, Hanson, Venters and Kimbrell, AND with young guys still developing like Beachy, Minor, Delgado, Teheran and Vizciano… well, the future looks bright. Don’t screw this up in a desperate move to win a potential October series that we’re not even guaranteed to BE in. Don’t mortgage a piece of our future for a Boras-represented rental. And for God’s sake, look around… the Phillies are OLD, the Yankees are OLD, the Red Sox are OLD, the Cardinals are OLD, the Giants are OLD… the teams with good young talent in baseball right now are the Braves, Brewers, Rangers, Reds, and Pirates. THOSE are the up-and-coming teams, and I think the Braves are the best of that bunch. So don’t trade what could be a 8-or-10 year piece of your pitching rotation for 10 weeks of Carlos Beltran… it’s NOT WORTH IT.
Brother John
July 25th, 2011
1:19 am
I agree. But no Beltran. Get a solid right handed bat and the puzzle is completed! I’m not sure how we can have the 2nd best record in the NL with almost everybody on the team batting below .230!! Maybe it’s our year or the play-offs will expose us…..
Jim
July 25th, 2011
1:34 am
Ia am tired of seeing Alex Gonzalez jog to 1B on a groundball, when is the manager going to call him out on this? As many hits as Uggla has taken for his lack of performance, even at his lowest he would bust it to 1B on every ball.
fredde
July 25th, 2011
1:56 am
how much is nate mcloud making and how long is his contract
clay
July 25th, 2011
2:39 am
sometime guys you just have to take a risk. sometimes they fail sometimes they work. this is a risk worth taking.
superiorblogman
July 25th, 2011
5:21 am
Beltran is a name that is about it. He struggled for a large portion of this year. It is just as likely that the guy will come here and struggle as it is that he will come here and be the key right handed bat. I am not a fan of Minor and neither am I a fan of Beltran.
Ron E.
July 25th, 2011
6:20 am
Good article, Mark Bradley. There’s no such thing as a 9 man starting rotation, so the Braves don’t need to keep every last one of their pitching prospects. There won’t be room for all of them in the major league rotation. Minor is not the same caliber prospect as Tehran, Delgado, Vizcaino. Trading him for Beltran + cash would be fine by me.
Msd
July 25th, 2011
6:53 am
Beltran has made it clear that he wants to play right field. Going to bench or move Heyward?
dawghater1
July 25th, 2011
7:00 am
it really dosent matter what you think bradley, your a sports so called writter, no professional sports team would let you within a mile of there decession making, thats why you work for a liberial washed up news paper.
Kelly
July 25th, 2011
7:04 am
Beltran is a joke. This is a bad move all the way around. If you can’t find someone other than Beltran, who has essentially made a living off of one good postseason performance, then don’t make a move. The Braves have solidly maintained the lead for the wild card thus far with what they have. I think they can continue that pace. Weigh that against the probability that Beltran goes down for 15 or so days due to one of those injuries. Please. Beltran? No.
steve
July 25th, 2011
7:05 am
I hope the Braves trade for bullpen help Linebrink,Proctor,Gearin and Martinez are terrible and when they pitch the braves have little chance to win.
TampaDAWG
July 25th, 2011
7:13 am
Michael Bourn. Beltran doesn’t play CF anymore. He plays RF. Not cause Pagan is some super speed freak because Beltran has had multiple knee injuries and a corner outfielder doesn’t have to cover as much ground. Bourn is one of the fastest guys in all of baseball, the best base stealer in all of baseball and can run down more fly balls than Shafer, Mcclouth or Beltran in CF. Beltran is a switch hitter with a good average and more power but Bourn is a perfect lead off hitter and a very good CF wihich is more of a need than Beltrans offense. A good lead off hitter with Chipper in the lineup makes our lineup very difficult to deal with.
Around The Horn
July 25th, 2011
7:19 am
The Cards need pitching. I’d much rather see a long term solution in trading for a player like Colby Rasmus.
Justafan
July 25th, 2011
7:45 am
BJ Upton Can Play CF..3B…2B…He would help more than others because he would free up Chipper for rest..Prado for rest and Uggla plus play a hell of a CF ….would love Reed Johnson,Bourn, Byrd , Jones from O’s.are Coco Crip.
Bet we don’t get anyone……
Go
Walker, Texas Ranger
July 25th, 2011
7:57 am
Mark I agree. I have seen Minor pitch at Gwinnett about 3 times now and I am just all that impressed. He may end up being a “crafty” lefthander one day but no time soon where as Teheran blows you away. I would more interested in a long term fix like Pence or Upton.
Walker, Texas Ranger
July 25th, 2011
7:59 am
Mark I think if we are not impressed then chances are some other teams won’t be either.
Pete
July 25th, 2011
8:03 am
This will be the 9th time Beltran has driven in 100 runs, but you morons would rather keep a lefty that will never win 15 games in a season. You always try to win NOW because you never know about next year. Heyward is one of the major problems. He is hitting .160 against lefties.
Fan of the Game
July 25th, 2011
8:12 am
I agree, Gonzalez’s body language kills me. He looks like a pouter and he is playing like it.
meh
July 25th, 2011
8:26 am
I’d make a play for BJ Upton first. then maybe come back to Beltran if Upton didn’t pan out.
Pete
July 25th, 2011
8:30 am
Upton is hitting a cool .225. He shows ZERO patience at the plate. Terrible idea
ArkyTech
July 25th, 2011
8:35 am
Not for a rental, and not within the division. Why give one of your division rivals a main tool to rebuild their staff for a two month rental?
And Beltran doesn’t play center field any more. And has said he doesn’t want to play center field any more.
coachx
July 25th, 2011
8:35 am
Enter your comments here
Pete
July 25th, 2011
8:37 am
Look at Minor in the minors. He does not dominate there, what makes you think he is going to even be an average pitcher in the majors?
ArkyTech
July 25th, 2011
8:38 am
CHUCK UGA, Linebrink’s ERA was lower than Hanson’s before last night’s game. But I agree with you about Proctor.
coachx
July 25th, 2011
8:38 am
I like the idea of Marlon Byrd if he is available. He could play vs. left handed pitching and be lethal. I think you could get him and keep Minor.
Plus CF can play CF and be a better bat then Schafer or spell Heyward vs. lefties.
BAMA dude
July 25th, 2011
8:43 am
Kelly
July 25th, 2011
7:04 am
Beltran is a joke. This is a bad move all the way around. If you can’t find someone other than Beltran, who has essentially made a living off of one good postseason performance
That’s some pretty uninformed drivel. Beltran is a career .900 OPS guy and is performing at about his career averages this year.
BAMA dude
July 25th, 2011
8:46 am
Mike Minor isn’t any good folks. Not sure why people think he is. Remember Bruce Chen? Same deal.
Bob
July 25th, 2011
8:47 am
Ugh, how was it we got Smoltz?
afan
July 25th, 2011
9:03 am
Two of a kind:
Schafer 235 BA~~301 OBP
Wayward 224 BA~~312 OBP
Thats our winning Combinatin..holy cow we better pray hard and often…..
afan
July 25th, 2011
9:07 am
9:08 Beltran trade take on espn now….
Bernard
July 25th, 2011
9:12 am
…you’ve changed my mind! Lets get Beltran…PPPPPLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!
MustangSalley
July 25th, 2011
9:13 am
I would love to see the Braves make a good horsetrade and improve their ballclub. Since Carlos Beltran is available, how about the Braves trading Kensheen Kawakami straight up for Beltran. I dont think we’ll ever start Kawakami again, since last year he started something like 0-12 and Beltran is a future hall of famer. That trade would make a lot of sense to me.
Walker, Texas Ranger
July 25th, 2011
9:15 am
I would only trade Minor along with a couple others for a younger, basestealing threat for CF. Anyway, Beltran can’t play CF anymore.
no hope
July 25th, 2011
9:25 am
Braves Brass Fiddles while Braves Burn…….
Braves have no plan A..B..C.. to put out fire. damn get help!!!!!!!!!
no hope
July 25th, 2011
9:27 am
Stang Sally..u couldn’t get a bag of crap for KK…..
no hope
July 25th, 2011
9:32 am
Pete..Upton 16 hrs, 65 rbi,.. 48 runs.. 23sb..Better than JS, J-who, & Nate, put together friend..Know what u talking about.
BAMA dude
July 25th, 2011
9:35 am
no hope, you and Pete are discussing different Uptons. Justin isn’t available.
gcs
July 25th, 2011
9:35 am
2004 was SEVEN YEARS AGO. You cannot compare what he did then to what he MIGHT do today.
Beltran is an injury waiting to happen.
Do you really want to give the Mets a lefty who will pitch against you for the next 10 years?