I don’t like trading pitching, but I’d swap Mike Minor for Beltran
October 2004: Carlos Beltran homers yet again; Jaret Wright surrenders. (AP photo)
The Braves have cause to beware the prospect(s)-for-rental-player trade. They’ve been burned twice this century: Once in December 2003, when they shipped Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright to St. Louis for a year’s worth of J.D. Drew, and again in July 2007 when they sent the entire farm system — OK, not really — to Texas for 364 days of Mark Teixeira’s services.
And now, another trade deadline close at hand, we here have reason to ponder the merits of another rumored young-for-old swap. The Mets are looking to divest themselves of Carlos Beltran, who will become a free agent at season’s end. (And if you’re thinking the Braves might have a chance to keep Beltran longer-term, forget it. His agent, as was the case with Drew and Teixeira, is Scott Boras.)
Owing to money problems from Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, the Mets have money problems. They’re not looking for big names. They’re in need of cheap young arms. The Braves have ‘em. It has been reported that the Mets dispatched a scout to watch Mike Minor work for Gwinnett against Louisville on Thursday. (Might not have been the best night to catch him: Six innings, 10 hits, six runs, three earned.)
We ask: Two months plus postseason of Beltran against the next five years of Minor — would you do it?
I would.
As a rule, I hate trading young pitchers. (Mention the names of John Smoltz and Jair Jurrjens to a Tigers fan.) I would under no circumstances — if the Rangers offered Josh Hamilton I might rethink, but only then — part with Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino, and I’m on record as saying I wouldn’t swap Brandon Beachy for Carlos Quentin, the White Sox outfielder who can become a free agent after next season.
But Minor-for-Beltran I’d do, for two reasons. First, Beltran plays center field, which means he’d fill an immediate need. (Quentin is a corner outfielder.) Second, I’m not crazy about Minor.
When the Braves drafted him in Round 1 out of Vanderbilt in 2009, the ESPN analyst Keith Law suggested they’d erred. But not every guy you pick in Round 1 has to wind up in your rotation to have value: If Minor can be turned into Beltran and Beltran hits the winning home run in Game 7 of the World Series, this will go down as the greatest Braves’ No. 1 pick since Chipper Jones.
In two-plus years in the organization, Minor has done well. But he’s not in the majors, and those who justified drafting him did so in the belief he was already close to being big-league ready. He has been lapped by Beachy, who wasn’t drafted at all, and will soon be passed by Teheran. And if Beachy vis-a-vis Minor had been a close call, the Braves would have erred on the side of the lefthander, seeing as how their rotation lacks one. But it’s not close.
Minor isn’t another Wainwright, who clearly projected as a No. 1 starter. Minor might top out as a No. 4 man. He’s the kind of good-but-not-great prospect who’s made to go in a deadline deal. He is, to dip into Braves’ history, a Melvin Nieves.
Melvin Nieves was a promising outfielder in a stacked farm system who became the key name in the Fred McGriff trade of July 1993. The Padres wanted Ryan Klesko, who was the prospect of the moment, but the Braves wouldn’t bite. (Nor was John Schuerholz moved to part with Chipper or Javy Lopez or even Mike Kelly or Tony Tarasco. Like I said: Stacked farm system) They held out and got the guy they needed at the price they wanted.
Loading ...The parallel isn’t exact — McGriff didn’t become a free agent until after the Braves won the World Series in 1995, and they had enough money back then to keep him — but it’s close enough. The Braves were good but not good enough in July 1993. (With no wild card back then, they had to catch San Francisco. They did.) Good as these Braves are, they might be one bat short of winning the World Series.
If the Braves don’t land Beltran, they might have to face him in October: The Phillies, Giants and Red Sox are all believed to have similar interest. The Braves saw him in postseason once before. He hit four home runs, three at Turner Field, against them as a rent-an-Astro in 2004. He signed with the Mets for Joe Johnson money that winter.
The Braves helped make Beltran a rich man. If he helps make the Braves a world champ, we’ll call it even.
By Mark Bradley
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313 comments Add your comment
Angus
July 24th, 2011
9:01 pm
Downward spiral about to happen – don’t do it. Wait til next year.
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
9:02 pm
You can never have enough good pitching is very cliche. There are two sides to the run differential equation. It’s fairly obvious which side is more challenging to the Braves, not just at the major league level but across the organization. Neither Minor nor Beachy were considered more than back-end starters by scouts at any point, Minor considered a major reach at the Braves position in that draft. While I certainly wouldn’t be excited about any deal where the featured player coming back is Ryan Ludwick, or someone similar, the Teixeira and Drew experiences shouldn’t be allowed to bring paralysis to an organization with legitimate postseason aspirations..
ugafan13
July 24th, 2011
9:02 pm
Our offense is stinking the place up…let’s bring Proctor in and get this thing over with early!
Art
July 24th, 2011
9:04 pm
Why not trade Minor to the Rays and get him out of the NL and acquire Upton. He has issues but I think the Braves can get him squared away and can play center and be that right handed bat. Add Schafer or McLouth and also get a another player or 2 from the Rays.
SAL
July 24th, 2011
9:08 pm
Do NOT do it. Take chances with Uggla, Chipper,& Heyward getting it together. Beltran does not guarantee post season, much less a WS appearance. Got to learn from past rather than repeat it. Wan to trade, then get pitching. Haven’t you seen post break performances?
BehindEnemyLines
July 24th, 2011
9:10 pm
If it was the 2004 Beltran in the picture, sure. The 2011 model? Not a chance.
WahWah
July 24th, 2011
9:10 pm
As numerous people have noted, Beltran is no longer a CF. Anywhere. For 30 games in Turner Field? The idea is utterly laughable.
However, you can see from both his numbers and the eyeball test that he has his legs underneath him at the plate again.
How’d you like your righty starters to face the following lineup for a series in October:
Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Beltran
Victorino
Brown
Ruiz
Good luck with that
jerry
July 24th, 2011
9:11 pm
Does Wren have a coup de main up his sleeve.
Mountain Braves Fan
July 24th, 2011
9:11 pm
A FEW REASONS WHY TRADING MINOR FOR BELTRAN MAKES SENSE
1. Acquiring Beltran keeps the Giants and Phillies from getting him. Both lineups have holes that Beltran would fill nicely. Both are likely playoff opponents.
2. Beltran is the best bat available. He is a switch hitter with pop from both sides of the plate. He is a legit 3/4 hitter who would make any team’s lineup deeper. There is a reason Braves players have told media folks they would love for Beltran to be a Brave: they know he would be a difference maker.
3. Beltran crushes LHP, something the Braves need desperately. This season, Beltran has as many home runs vs. LHP (8 in 95 at bats) as McLouth, Schaefer, Prado, Heyward, Jones, and Uggla COMBINED (8 in 483 at bats). Beltran also has more RBIs vs. LHP (21 in 95 at bats) than our entire outfield quartet of McLouth, Schaefer, Prado, and Heyward COMBINED (17 in 283 at bats).
4. Beltran provides a valuable insurance policy against injuries to other Braves players in the playoff run or the playoffs. Prado, Heyward, and Jones have all missed games this year due to injury. I keep thinking that if the Braves had had one more healthy bat in their lineup in the playoff series last year vs. San Francisco that the outcome might have been different. For those who say that Beltran is injury prone, he has played in more games this year (96) than Prado (70), Heyward (76), or Jones (77). Could Beltran get hurt the day after we trade for him? Absolutely, but so could Minor if we kept him and didn’t trade for Beltran. And Beltran, while he is no spring chicken, is five years younger than Chipper.
5. Beltran has lots of personal incentives to want to continue his good play as a Brave. He would be playing on a contending team with a chance to win a championship ring, and he would be playing for a contract for next year and beyond.
6. Minor’s trade value will never be higher. The Braves have a surplus of starting pitching, allowing them to trade from a position of strength. If the Braves front office considered Minor a potential 1/2 starter he would not be available. The Braves have other, better starting prospects lined up behind Minor. The Braves have the opportunity to trade a AAA pitcher (who was not good enough to crack the starting rotation this year, and is likely blocked next year as well with all five current starters under contract, Medlen coming back and other prospects potentially moving up) for a proven professional hitter who can help the Braves not just get to the playoffs but be a factor once they get there.
7. Trading for Beltran gives the Braves lineup flexibility and the ability to rest key players. If I were the Braves I would use Beltran in all three outfield positions. He would play right field occasionally to give Heyward a day off against a tough lefty starter. He would play left field to give Prado a day off or when Prado needs to play third to give Jones a day off. He would also play some center field.
8. A two-month rental of Beltran can actually have its advantages in term of roster creativity in 2012 and beyond, because the Braves would have no financial obligation going forward. What if the Braves trade for Beltran and he is a flop, or gets hurt? We wish him the best in free agency and move on, knowing that we gave winning a championship our best shot and it didn’t work out. What if the Braves trade for Beltran and the team thrives, goes far in the playoffs, or even, God forbid, wins the World Series? We thank our lucky stars that Frank Wren had the guts to make this deal. Who knows, maybe Beltran, even though Boras is his agent, likes the winning atmosphere in Atlanta and wants to sign with the Braves as a free agent. If the Braves were to win the World Series, Beltran would be a hot and very expensive commodity. Wouldn’t that be a great problem to have! But at some point the Braves are going to have to deal with Mr. Boras, because both Jurrjens and Hanson are clients of his as well.
9. The potential reward is worth the risk. The Braves have the opportunity to try to win it all THIS YEAR without damaging their future success for MANY YEARS TO COME. Isn’t that what major league teams are supposed to do?
TP
July 24th, 2011
9:14 pm
The Braves do have a sort of consistency. Their batters are all on at the same time or all off at the same time. Unfortunately their being off far exceeds their being on. In either situation they get a few runners on base but don’t have the ability to get them home.
WahWah
July 24th, 2011
9:25 pm
Also, Minor is just another guy, the round he was drafted in is irrelevant. The MLB draft is more about how much money you are willing to spend in a slot. In drafting Minor the Braves were taking a college pitcher because 1) he was signable 2) closer to the majors i.e. lower risk, lower reward.
Look at his stats, there is nothing special there 3.5/1 K/BB ratio, meh.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=minor-001mik
People get way too carried away with back of the rotation guys who have a little early success in the majors. In Atlanta it is Beachy and Minor, in Philly Worley, and in prior years J.A. Happ.
I would be surprised if the Mets would trade Beltran for Minor AND Beachy. They are more likely looking for a major league ready back of the rotation guy + a higher upside A ball player
NV 049
July 24th, 2011
9:31 pm
Bad deal ,NO Rental quick fix …
We honestly dont know if Minor will get Beltran its only a Rumor
…. Keep our pitching might need it … Plus winter deals need to be made for permanent CF & SS maybe 3B if Chipper retires..Winter prices are cheaper ..
.If anything Reed Johnson & a relief pitcher price will not be as high
NV 049
July 24th, 2011
9:33 pm
bad deal
Justafan
July 24th, 2011
9:37 pm
I’d rather have BJ and Peralta from Rays but I dont believe Wren will make a big trade deal.
Minor for Beltran to me is not a big trade, just a rental player but a good one if it means we get in play-off and Schafer is on the bench.
We will still need a pitcher…
NV 049
July 24th, 2011
9:37 pm
keep Minor ,pass on Beltran …. Reed Johnson be cheaper , plus relief pitcher
Justafan
July 24th, 2011
9:38 pm
I would not give two pitchers for Beltran…hell no!
braveshoo
July 24th, 2011
9:42 pm
i dont like giving up a LH picher who will be pitching against us in the division for years. Now I would trade Minor and Delgado for Justin Upton from Arizona. He can play CF, hits HRs and steals bases, and is signed through 2015. No rentals please.
Jack Lill
July 24th, 2011
9:44 pm
I don’t think they should trade Minor. Make him part of the rotation and trade Beachy
Pete
July 24th, 2011
9:46 pm
Trade Heyward. He is awful. He will never ever hit 30 HR or drive in 100 RBI. Swing is way too long. If he cannot play a full season at 20 or 21 why do you think he can at 30
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
9:47 pm
Mountain Braves and Wahwah, great points. I read that Schuerholtz is now sitting on some sort of draft reform committee of Bud Selig’s doing. As a result, the Braves are very unlikely to rock Selig’s boat and go overslot. As unfortunate as that is, it will be even worse if the Braves truly over-estimate their value based on some very suspect correlation with draft position. If you can, as a contending team, get half a year of Beltran for an over-valued, back end starter you have to strongly consider it. And Mountain Brave makes a very good point that having that player walk at the end of the year (though it’s my understanding he doesn’t bring back type A compensation) is not necessarily the worst thing in the world.
dlind87
July 24th, 2011
9:48 pm
I would not trade a pitcher but if they did how about Minor, McClouth for the Reds centerfielder. the Braves need more speed.
Pete
July 24th, 2011
9:52 pm
Since the end of May last year, Heyward has 19 HR, and 61 RBI in 617 At Bats
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
9:56 pm
Why would the contending D’backs trade Upton? Why would the contending Reds take on McLouth’s salary? Why would the non-contending Mets want Lowe’s contract? Why would the Rays want McLouth’s contract?
If only real life baseball were as easy as fantasy league baseball.
Come to think of it, why would any fantasy league player make any of those deals (from the opposing perspective)?
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
9:58 pm
Pete, how are the other 21 year olds, making peanuts in terms of major league dollars, doing relative to Heyward?
Do people really still use RBI to convey value?
fredi gonzales
July 24th, 2011
9:59 pm
Helluva article. I’d like to tip my cap.
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
10:01 pm
Hey Fredi, get back to work. Aren’t you supposed to be calling down for Scott Proctor right about now?
fredi gonzalez
July 24th, 2011
10:01 pm
I’d like to tip Larry Parrish’s cap too. That’s two caps tipped for a helluva article
Pete
July 24th, 2011
10:03 pm
Detroit, you don’t compare him to other 21 year olds, you compare him to other right fielders. I don’t care if he is 50. RBI is still a relative stat. Do you want to go by slugging? OPS+, WAR, OBP? He is lacking in every single one of those. OPS+ this year of 103, OBP of .316, SLG .420. Which stat do you want to go by?
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
10:04 pm
Pete, so as to not appear to be too much the contrarian, I should add that you’ve got a good point about Heyward’s health. Too soon to label him as injury prone but his inability to this point to stay on the field is much more of a concern that anything he’s done while in the lineup. Still, not nearly enough to trade such a cheap commodity with tremendous upside, but it is a concern.
all for one.....
July 24th, 2011
10:06 pm
GM Wren, please remember it is the trades you do not make that end up making GM’s great. Just say no to any pitcher over A ball. Keep building our farm system just one more year. Also with our pitching and bullpen building strength, Freeman 1B, McCann C, Schafer CF, Heyward RF, Uggla 2B, Prado 3B pretty young and solid. We need young studs at SS and in LF to start another dynasty like 90’s and early 2000’s. Schafer can learn how to hit leadoff and use his speed. Heyward needs to work on his swing to be more consistent. If the two players we need in LF and SS can hit and have speed and can play defense. We should have power enough. If Freddi Gonzalez manages to manufacture more runs we can be awesome. Do not trade away our future when we are very, very close. BE PATIENT!
Pete
July 24th, 2011
10:07 pm
Detroit, I agree that he is cheap and it is too soon to panic. But for some reason he reminds me of Cliff Floyd. Super talented but was always injured
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
10:07 pm
Pete, are you arguing that he isn’t ready to play or that he never will be? I think it is very appropriate to compare him to other 21 year olds.
I do find his declining walk rate a bit disconcerting. More so, I find the Braves hacktastic organizational approach disconcerting.
Pete
July 24th, 2011
10:08 pm
PLease stop bringing up Schafer. He has proven he cannot hit in the minors or the majors
Tim
July 24th, 2011
10:10 pm
Beltran isn’t going to be the difference between us winning a WS or not. Not worth it.
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
10:10 pm
Totally agree on Schafer. He simply cannot hit. While between Heyward’s track record and age he is still a very good bet to produce, Schafer has only shown over a fairly substantial number of at-bats that he cannot. And his defense is even a bit overrated – while saying he is superior to McLouth with the glove is setting the bar extemely low.
gcs
July 24th, 2011
10:10 pm
These ESPN announcers are in LOVE with Dontrelle Willis. According to them, he is Albert Pujols at the plate, Roy Halladay on the mound and Chris Rock in the locker room.
Good grief, so tired of listening to them kiss his rump, I am glad he got taken out!
Pete
July 24th, 2011
10:11 pm
We are not going to win it without making a deal. What should we do Tim?
all for one.....
July 24th, 2011
10:11 pm
Our bench is strong and always will be strong. When you have good pitching and we do, bench players want to play for your team. One, they don’t have to hit against our staff, two, we use them late in games that have meaning to pinchhit for our pitchers. BE PATIENT!
fredi gonzalez
July 24th, 2011
10:13 pm
I’d like to tip my cap to Dontrelle. Helluva job.
Pete
July 24th, 2011
10:14 pm
The only year Schafer hit in the minors he got popped for HGH the following spring
Pete
July 24th, 2011
10:16 pm
Thank you Heyward
JC Boscan III
July 24th, 2011
10:23 pm
To use a Brian Jordan “Milky”ism, “Jason HayWOOD hit it hard (nahhhh, he didn’t), but the Reds turn the double play. Heywood just missed hitting it out……” Now, Jason’s batting near .165 vs. lefties.
So, I say, let’s trade for a CF AND a backup outfielder who can platoon with Jason in RF against lefties. This .160ish thing will KILL us in the playoffs!!!!
Pete
July 24th, 2011
10:26 pm
Heyward hitting a cool .160 versus lefties. His swing is way way too long
Ayron
July 24th, 2011
10:27 pm
Agree w/ both sides but I like Kemp for Minor much better. I think that it’d be a pretty even deal
jack bull
July 24th, 2011
10:30 pm
no, i remember Wainwright for JD Drew way to much to do that again..plus, Beltran is hurt more than Chipper is.
katherine
July 24th, 2011
10:34 pm
is it just me or are the espn announcers almost rooting for the braves to lose?
Joe
July 24th, 2011
10:36 pm
I say do it. With Minor, we’re using words like “could,” “might,” and “possibly.” Well, Beltran “is.” If the Braves don’t go for it all now, will they ever?
jack bull
July 24th, 2011
10:42 pm
yes, Kat, Valentine has openly said he doesn’t like the Braves.
JC Boscan III
July 24th, 2011
10:47 pm
Well, if Gonzalez actually gets a hit in the 9th, the Braves are DESTINED to win this one!!!
(I hope)……
Omar
July 24th, 2011
10:54 pm
For Upton I would do it for sure, but not Beltran. To many injuries and he is a rental.