I don’t like trading pitching, but I’d swap Mike Minor for Beltran
October 2004: Carlos Beltran homers yet again; Jaret Wright surrenders. (AP photo)
The Braves have cause to beware the prospect(s)-for-rental-player trade. They’ve been burned twice this century: Once in December 2003, when they shipped Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright to St. Louis for a year’s worth of J.D. Drew, and again in July 2007 when they sent the entire farm system — OK, not really — to Texas for 364 days of Mark Teixeira’s services.
And now, another trade deadline close at hand, we here have reason to ponder the merits of another rumored young-for-old swap. The Mets are looking to divest themselves of Carlos Beltran, who will become a free agent at season’s end. (And if you’re thinking the Braves might have a chance to keep Beltran longer-term, forget it. His agent, as was the case with Drew and Teixeira, is Scott Boras.)
Owing to money problems from Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, the Mets have money problems. They’re not looking for big names. They’re in need of cheap young arms. The Braves have ‘em. It has been reported that the Mets dispatched a scout to watch Mike Minor work for Gwinnett against Louisville on Thursday. (Might not have been the best night to catch him: Six innings, 10 hits, six runs, three earned.)
We ask: Two months plus postseason of Beltran against the next five years of Minor — would you do it?
I would.
As a rule, I hate trading young pitchers. (Mention the names of John Smoltz and Jair Jurrjens to a Tigers fan.) I would under no circumstances — if the Rangers offered Josh Hamilton I might rethink, but only then — part with Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino, and I’m on record as saying I wouldn’t swap Brandon Beachy for Carlos Quentin, the White Sox outfielder who can become a free agent after next season.
But Minor-for-Beltran I’d do, for two reasons. First, Beltran plays center field, which means he’d fill an immediate need. (Quentin is a corner outfielder.) Second, I’m not crazy about Minor.
When the Braves drafted him in Round 1 out of Vanderbilt in 2009, the ESPN analyst Keith Law suggested they’d erred. But not every guy you pick in Round 1 has to wind up in your rotation to have value: If Minor can be turned into Beltran and Beltran hits the winning home run in Game 7 of the World Series, this will go down as the greatest Braves’ No. 1 pick since Chipper Jones.
In two-plus years in the organization, Minor has done well. But he’s not in the majors, and those who justified drafting him did so in the belief he was already close to being big-league ready. He has been lapped by Beachy, who wasn’t drafted at all, and will soon be passed by Teheran. And if Beachy vis-a-vis Minor had been a close call, the Braves would have erred on the side of the lefthander, seeing as how their rotation lacks one. But it’s not close.
Minor isn’t another Wainwright, who clearly projected as a No. 1 starter. Minor might top out as a No. 4 man. He’s the kind of good-but-not-great prospect who’s made to go in a deadline deal. He is, to dip into Braves’ history, a Melvin Nieves.
Melvin Nieves was a promising outfielder in a stacked farm system who became the key name in the Fred McGriff trade of July 1993. The Padres wanted Ryan Klesko, who was the prospect of the moment, but the Braves wouldn’t bite. (Nor was John Schuerholz moved to part with Chipper or Javy Lopez or even Mike Kelly or Tony Tarasco. Like I said: Stacked farm system) They held out and got the guy they needed at the price they wanted.
Loading ...The parallel isn’t exact — McGriff didn’t become a free agent until after the Braves won the World Series in 1995, and they had enough money back then to keep him — but it’s close enough. The Braves were good but not good enough in July 1993. (With no wild card back then, they had to catch San Francisco. They did.) Good as these Braves are, they might be one bat short of winning the World Series.
If the Braves don’t land Beltran, they might have to face him in October: The Phillies, Giants and Red Sox are all believed to have similar interest. The Braves saw him in postseason once before. He hit four home runs, three at Turner Field, against them as a rent-an-Astro in 2004. He signed with the Mets for Joe Johnson money that winter.
The Braves helped make Beltran a rich man. If he helps make the Braves a world champ, we’ll call it even.
By Mark Bradley
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313 comments Add your comment
5150 UOAD
July 24th, 2011
7:08 pm
We just need to Win tonight and hit the ball.
5150 UOAD
July 24th, 2011
7:09 pm
what?
cave
July 24th, 2011
7:09 pm
dont worry i come on here next week to tell you i told you so.BTW,my tickets to braves games are free,have a good one.
mark bradley is a joke
July 24th, 2011
7:12 pm
you are the worst writer and are always wrong about everything. add this to your list
cave
July 24th, 2011
7:14 pm
and to those who wonder why we did not bunt last night i tell you….
prado was up hits to all fields didnt happen
gap is like coors,2 runs is not enough in the ball park
unless you are in sd,or watch baseball,no team is bunting unless its the pitcher
and going against say halidayor lee where runs are a premium.
THATS WHY
cave
July 24th, 2011
7:15 pm
I love to hear you tell him that to his face
cave
July 24th, 2011
7:17 pm
i agree with the comment about dob he is the wose writer ajc has ever hired.Dob and proctor have the best jobs available.
jazzyK
July 24th, 2011
7:17 pm
I’ve heard all the talk about the need for a right handed bat. but I’d rather see the Braves trade for speed, average and defense than power. Power comes and goes, but speed never slumps.
What about Michael Bourn of the Astros? 30 stolen bases so far, .298 average and one of the best defensive center fielders in the league.
Cheesehead
July 24th, 2011
7:19 pm
i say go for it cuz we all know……..WHITEY CANT F HIT
CRACKERS
Manny Sanguillen Was Not A Korean
July 24th, 2011
7:21 pm
Screw this ridiculous trade. If we trade anyone at this point it ought to be Lowe, and even Lowe has greater value to us during a stretch run than any extra bat might net us.
I hope Wren holds his cards unless someone is willing to give up value for AA prospects.
Cheesehead
July 24th, 2011
7:21 pm
HARD TO BELIEVE A CHOC CITY LIKE ATLANTA HS ONLY 1 AFRICAN AMERICAN ON THE WHOLE DAM TEAM.IF I WAS HEYWARD I WOULD FILE A LAWSUIT AND THEN TRADE ME.I COULD FIT IN WELL WITH PHILLY,FER SUR
timboy6
July 24th, 2011
7:22 pm
Cave, I buy your idea of a right handed bat off the bench. Who’s out there that fits?
bobbymahlon
July 24th, 2011
7:25 pm
If you want somebody who can steal bases get Franceour, he has 16 at the present time, how about that . Of course that is more than any Brave on the current roster. Oh by the way he is hitting 40 points higher than Upton and has 60 RBIs.
cave
July 24th, 2011
7:26 pm
gomes,wallingham,ludwick
there are a couple more,but i cannot reveal the names as of yet.
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
7:27 pm
cheesehead- go take an english class
bob
July 24th, 2011
7:28 pm
Sure, after all if we get Beltran for 60 days, I expect he probably will be healthy enough to play at least 20 of those days. Are we serious?
cave
July 24th, 2011
7:30 pm
i can tell you that former braves are not coming here
franceur,bettermint
omar
i know i mispelled but u get the picture
also beltran deal would get done by july 30@4pm
he has 24 hours to approve a trade therefore making the deadline,july 31@4pm
DHD
July 24th, 2011
7:33 pm
Sure glad you’re not our GM. This is like the Wainwright deal and we got JD drew longer than 2 months. Not only NO, but HELL NO.
scfan
July 24th, 2011
7:35 pm
do braves ever learn. every time do just finish up season it does not work very well. get it right guys lot players have hard time adjusting to another team. this could cost them play off to get past first round. there few other pitchers who need go. middle group on down not that dependable. use farm people give them chance to come up now see if they help somewhat gamble that way and leave trades till end of season
skeptomania
July 24th, 2011
7:35 pm
Almost every trade the Braves have made this time of year except Fred McGriff has been a loser. Beltran is an injury waiting to happen. He has not played much for the Mets and they got screwed with his contract. Yunel Escobar is rated higher than Brian McCann in the ESPN rating system right now. Think of where the braves might be with the players they lost in the Teixeira trade. One of the worst in baseball history.
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
7:36 pm
JUST OUT ON ESPN.COM
Carlos Beltran told reporters after Sunday’s game that his strong preference is to remain in the National League, but he did not fully rule out switching leagues. He has been more forceful in saying he would not go to the American League when discussing his status with confidants, according to Jayson Stark at ESPN’s Rumor Central.
Writes Stark:
Carlos Beltran told a friend this weekend that despite his public statements that he would approve a trade to Texas or Boston, he has told the Mets he only wants to be traded to one of seven National League contenders, according to a source familiar with that conversation. The source, who was not present for the conversation, said Beltran doesn’t want to approve a deal to Texas because the Rangers would want him to play center field and because he’s not familiar with the AL West. Texas has been described by multiple sources to have ramped up its pursuit of Beltran over the weekend.
so…..what this means is he will not be a Brave b/c the braves are not going to bench Schafer and his speed for Heyward’s epic slump. (and save the “hit he good in that game the other day comments”)
Bobby Bobby
July 24th, 2011
7:40 pm
Never going to happen.
NorCalBrave
July 24th, 2011
7:43 pm
I wouldn’t worry about Beltran becoming a Brave. His stock has risen considerably in the past week and there’s no way the Mets will take just Minor in trade. If the Giants are willing to part with young talent (including a pitcher named Zach Wheeler), I see him going there. The Phillies’ interest has reportedly cooled, which makes sense since they’re steamrolling everybody without him.
Tex
July 24th, 2011
7:46 pm
Here’s someone worse than Madoff. Read then forward this link to everyone you know, so they don’t get scammed: http://texsquixtarblog.blogspot.com/2009/04/who-is-worse-bernie-madoff-or-rich.html
Really?
July 24th, 2011
7:46 pm
Really…. we have some prejudice against African American baseball players? Really? Do you think this is a purposeful thing? Do you think they would pass over a black player for a white or Latin American player who was not as good just because of the color of his skin? Really? What world do you live in? This is a business. The administration of the Braves don’t care about the color of the skin or any other non-baseball related phenotype someone might have. Really? You really think this? Not only is the English class suggested by others needed but a business class wouldn’t hurt. It’s all about money. A successful African American player in a city with a sizable African American population would draw more people to the park. You think they are so prejudice that they would miss out on this? Really?
Chipper's ACL
July 24th, 2011
7:51 pm
I stated the other day, and will again on this blog, I had rather see Frenchy return. The need is a RH bat to spell Shafer and Heyward. If a young pitcher is traded it should be for a player we will have the ability to retain. A Boras player will not stay in Atl. The biggest issue with Beltran is not receiving draft picks when he walks at season’s end. If that were the case Minor for him and two draft picks is a great deal. Also if he were the only hitter available then sure, make the trade. Right now I think the pressure of making this move will drive Wren to do it without exploring all options. If we’re looking for an addition that will benefit the team for years to come then I would have to add Bourn. Bourn hits lefties at a .278 clip and his speed at the top of the order, in front of Prado, would be a huge improvement. Also Frenchy is hitting over .300 the past month and lefties at .309. Those two, with a couple of RH arms for the pen, and taking Philly may be a possibility.
rarebreed
July 24th, 2011
7:53 pm
Rumor has it the Giants have the inside track on Beltran. Phils are interested in Pence and is likely Dom Brown will be included to Houston with an unnamed pitcher
Gizmo
July 24th, 2011
7:58 pm
Before we rush into trading young pitchers remember that Hanson, Lowe, and JJ plus a couple more players won’t be here much longer. Look past this year as you plan. We have seen that pitching without bats won’t get it done. Will bats without pitching be any different?
Barons
July 24th, 2011
7:59 pm
Beltran plays RF for the Mets, not center, and word has it he prefers to continue doing that. So, in Beltran, we could be getting a rental and a guy who also is unhappy playing center for us.
dave
July 24th, 2011
8:02 pm
That really makes a lot of sense. Trade a left handed picher(not to mention that we can’t hit bad left handed pitching)to a division rival that we’ll have to face for the next 5 to 7 years for an “over the hill, outfielder who might make a difference in two or three games. Give me a break!
fla dawg
July 24th, 2011
8:07 pm
please tell me that “cave” is trying to be funny. no one can be really as stupid as he is acting!
Gizmo
July 24th, 2011
8:08 pm
I wonder if Beltran, knowing he is a two month rental and then will move on, be very interested in giving his best to the Braves. Boras has probably already been in negotiations with other teams for next season.
don
July 24th, 2011
8:08 pm
Can I assume that Mr. Bradley also supported the Drew Debacle and the Teixeira Tragedy? With such a large percentage of “voters” supporting the trade, I also assume that the fans of the Braves never learn. When you have been bitten twice by a viper, I would think you would learn to keep away from obvious danger.
If the trade is made, will it be limited to Minor and Beltran (certainly bad enough in and of itself) or will the inept Wren add to the stupidity by including more? Remember the Teixeira trade when the Braves added a fifth player (Beau Jones- a relief pitcher for Round Rock in AAA) because Harrison’s may have had some health questions? But, then, it isn’t by accident that many have characterized the Teixeira trade as one of the four or five worst in baseball history.
For those who support this fiasco, please explain what you expect the Braves to gain by the trade. The wild card? They should easily win that with no changes in the roster. The division? Surely no one realistically believes that the Braves will catch the Phillies. The WS? Now there is a real pipe dream.
"Chef" Tim Dix
July 24th, 2011
8:09 pm
Mark, check me out but best trade deadline since ‘78 and maybe ever due to the plethera of teams in the market.
LakeDawg
July 24th, 2011
8:12 pm
If it gets a World Series championship it would be well worth it. No matter how good Minor turns out to be. The Braves only got 1 championship out of 15 years of Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux. If they could match that, it would be a steal.
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
8:13 pm
FYI FRANK WREN: these blow-outs from your favorite pitcher Scott Proctor do affect your team’s confidence…GET THE BUM OUT OF THERE ASAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WDE
July 24th, 2011
8:15 pm
Waar D Eagle!
IlliniBrave
July 24th, 2011
8:17 pm
Here;s a brief excerpt from Jim Bowden’s assessment of several potential trades:
“I asked a rival evaluator — whose team is not involved in the Beltran trade talks, and isn’t in the same division as the Braves — to rank the four prospects in his eyes. His feeling:
1. Teheran
2. Vizcaino
3. Minor
4. Delgado”
“‘To me,’ the evaluator said, ‘you could flip-flop the top two’ — Teheran and Vizcaino — ‘or the bottom two.’ Minor and Delgado, the evaluator said, are ‘third-starter type of guys.’
I asked the evaluator if he thought that the price tag of one of those four pitchers was too high for a two-month rental, and he paused. ‘Yes, probably,’ he said. ‘I don’t know what [the Braves'] other options are, but I can’t see Frank [Wren] trading one of them.’”
Interesting perspective. I would be surprised and disappointed if we traded even a mid-rotation prospect for a two-month, injury-prone rental.
Ray
July 24th, 2011
8:18 pm
Beltran doesn’t want to play CF. his knee is still a potential problem. we need a right handed hitter more than a switch hitter who will mostly bat left handed. Beltran is not going to make that much difference.
Giving up on a #1 pick in 2yrs after paying $2.4 mill and being a cheap team is a bad idea. Minor wil likely be at least a #3 starter for many yrs. Beltran will be gone in 2 mos.
Only way is to expand deal as was suggested. Mets add Matt Harvey and we add a lesser prospect.
Better to trade with an AL team than one in division-to be safe. other options are available.
Mike
July 24th, 2011
8:24 pm
I would think that MB would be up on the latest…Beltran came out and stated that he does NOT want to go back to center field again…Also, he is NOT the same player he was 7 years ago…This would be a STUPID deal…Why…Why would you do anything to help the Mets?
Rob
July 24th, 2011
8:30 pm
It would be stupid to not make a deal for a big bat. Beltrans #s vs lefties are not great but he does draw walks and is having a GREAT season. The guys around him in the order will also see more fastballs with him being in the middle of the order. It will create matchup problems for managers going to their bullpen late in games. If you assume next years rotation has Hudson, JJ, Hanson, Beachy, Lowe and Teheran competing for 5 spots. That puts Minor as number 7 on the list. Add the fact that Vizcaino and Delgado are getting close and Minor is even more expendable. When there is a chance to compete for a world series you have to take it. Make the move.
Dawgs Man
July 24th, 2011
8:39 pm
Trade Beachy and Gonzalez for a bag of balls.
brein128
July 24th, 2011
8:39 pm
Ray, why would the Mets add Matt Harvey (who is likely to be a Top 3 prospect of the Mets when the next rankings come out) to a deal? That makes zero sense from the Mets perspective. The Mets will wind up receiving a team’s Top 6 or 7 prospect and a prospect around the team’s 15ish prospect in a trade.
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
8:40 pm
i just love how the Braves are so good at taking mediocre teams and making them look good. no killer instinct at all. this game is about to get out of control. good-bye wildcard hello 2012
IlliniBrave
July 24th, 2011
8:41 pm
Beachy struggling in his third straight start – and we still want to trade a 3-4 starter prospect for a two month, injury-prone rental? I cannot believe that FW will make this trade.
DetroitBraves
July 24th, 2011
8:47 pm
I think a lot of teams are concerned about Beltran’s ability to play center after his leg problems. Obviously the bat plays anywhere, but maybe not the glove. Ignoring that, yes Minor and Beachy are expendable. There’s not much reason to this point to project them as more than back-end starters. Value? Yes. More value to the Braves than a bat, even a half-year bat? Probably not. And for those that think the Braves should deal Lowe for Beltran, why on Earth would the Mets make that deal? The best trade chip for an aging pitcher with a fat contract? This does not exactly further their cause.
EWilliams
July 24th, 2011
8:51 pm
WTF 7 pitches from a had been pitcher in the 1st inning and they(reds) score 2 runs. Game over with these bats currently in the braves lineup!
Reality
July 24th, 2011
8:52 pm
Let’s face it folks. These Braves will not get to the WS without buying tickets. They won’t get past the Phillies for the division title and the chance for a wild card is fading. See what’s available in the FA market that could help them long term and only then go fishing. They are just too inconsistent to envision them reaching the post season this year. Don’t panic Mr. Wren into making unsound moves. They should take their motto, “Wait till next year” seriously right now.
dap01
July 24th, 2011
8:54 pm
If we trade a top pitcher, let’s make sure that we have atleast a player that can help us next year as well. The Braves have had the worst OF in the majors for years and Wren has not gotten 1 outfielder that can help.
JP
July 24th, 2011
8:54 pm
I vote NO! The whole “rental player” idea is overblown and a waste of good young talent. The Braves are going to make the playoffs with the current roster intact. No need to bring someone in for 2 months and trade a good young starter.
It’s not like Beltran is going to win the World Series for the Braves. Be real. You could never have enough good pitching.