I don’t like trading pitching, but I’d swap Mike Minor for Beltran
October 2004: Carlos Beltran homers yet again; Jaret Wright surrenders. (AP photo)
The Braves have cause to beware the prospect(s)-for-rental-player trade. They’ve been burned twice this century: Once in December 2003, when they shipped Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright to St. Louis for a year’s worth of J.D. Drew, and again in July 2007 when they sent the entire farm system — OK, not really — to Texas for 364 days of Mark Teixeira’s services.
And now, another trade deadline close at hand, we here have reason to ponder the merits of another rumored young-for-old swap. The Mets are looking to divest themselves of Carlos Beltran, who will become a free agent at season’s end. (And if you’re thinking the Braves might have a chance to keep Beltran longer-term, forget it. His agent, as was the case with Drew and Teixeira, is Scott Boras.)
Owing to money problems from Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, the Mets have money problems. They’re not looking for big names. They’re in need of cheap young arms. The Braves have ‘em. It has been reported that the Mets dispatched a scout to watch Mike Minor work for Gwinnett against Louisville on Thursday. (Might not have been the best night to catch him: Six innings, 10 hits, six runs, three earned.)
We ask: Two months plus postseason of Beltran against the next five years of Minor — would you do it?
I would.
As a rule, I hate trading young pitchers. (Mention the names of John Smoltz and Jair Jurrjens to a Tigers fan.) I would under no circumstances — if the Rangers offered Josh Hamilton I might rethink, but only then — part with Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino, and I’m on record as saying I wouldn’t swap Brandon Beachy for Carlos Quentin, the White Sox outfielder who can become a free agent after next season.
But Minor-for-Beltran I’d do, for two reasons. First, Beltran plays center field, which means he’d fill an immediate need. (Quentin is a corner outfielder.) Second, I’m not crazy about Minor.
When the Braves drafted him in Round 1 out of Vanderbilt in 2009, the ESPN analyst Keith Law suggested they’d erred. But not every guy you pick in Round 1 has to wind up in your rotation to have value: If Minor can be turned into Beltran and Beltran hits the winning home run in Game 7 of the World Series, this will go down as the greatest Braves’ No. 1 pick since Chipper Jones.
In two-plus years in the organization, Minor has done well. But he’s not in the majors, and those who justified drafting him did so in the belief he was already close to being big-league ready. He has been lapped by Beachy, who wasn’t drafted at all, and will soon be passed by Teheran. And if Beachy vis-a-vis Minor had been a close call, the Braves would have erred on the side of the lefthander, seeing as how their rotation lacks one. But it’s not close.
Minor isn’t another Wainwright, who clearly projected as a No. 1 starter. Minor might top out as a No. 4 man. He’s the kind of good-but-not-great prospect who’s made to go in a deadline deal. He is, to dip into Braves’ history, a Melvin Nieves.
Melvin Nieves was a promising outfielder in a stacked farm system who became the key name in the Fred McGriff trade of July 1993. The Padres wanted Ryan Klesko, who was the prospect of the moment, but the Braves wouldn’t bite. (Nor was John Schuerholz moved to part with Chipper or Javy Lopez or even Mike Kelly or Tony Tarasco. Like I said: Stacked farm system) They held out and got the guy they needed at the price they wanted.
Loading ...The parallel isn’t exact — McGriff didn’t become a free agent until after the Braves won the World Series in 1995, and they had enough money back then to keep him — but it’s close enough. The Braves were good but not good enough in July 1993. (With no wild card back then, they had to catch San Francisco. They did.) Good as these Braves are, they might be one bat short of winning the World Series.
If the Braves don’t land Beltran, they might have to face him in October: The Phillies, Giants and Red Sox are all believed to have similar interest. The Braves saw him in postseason once before. He hit four home runs, three at Turner Field, against them as a rent-an-Astro in 2004. He signed with the Mets for Joe Johnson money that winter.
The Braves helped make Beltran a rich man. If he helps make the Braves a world champ, we’ll call it even.
By Mark Bradley
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313 comments Add your comment
Bama Brave
July 24th, 2011
6:12 pm
I say make the trade. Its not like where low on Pitchers?!
G'Vegas Dawg
July 24th, 2011
6:13 pm
“If Minor can be turned into Beltran and Beltran hits the winning home run in Game 7 of the World Series, this will go down as the greatest Braves’ No. 1 pick since Chipper Jones.”
If aunts had balls they’d be uncles….
tim
July 24th, 2011
6:14 pm
do not trade the future have we not learned our lesson. if you can get a kemp or pence or even upton someone in their age range with more than 2 months on the contract then and only then do you pull the trigger. two words kill the beltran idea scott boras
BHMBrave
July 24th, 2011
6:15 pm
Slydog has it right. Please, please no rentals. Not Beltran who has already indicated he is willing to sign back with the Mets in offseason. If we are going to make a move for a bat, make a move with impact beyond this year. Get pence or kemp. We have the talent to spare if we get the right piece in return.
UGA the Cubs of the south.
July 24th, 2011
6:15 pm
“but I’d swap Mike Minor for Beltran”
I bet you also like the Tex deal a few years back. How’d that work out?
Tomas
July 24th, 2011
6:16 pm
I agree Mark, but heard the Mets asked foR Minor and Vizcaino
Matt
July 24th, 2011
6:18 pm
Mark: I totally agree with your analysis of Minor. Keith Law was way too high on him during the beginning of the year and even said Fredi is destroying the Braves by choosing Beachy over him. They should “sell high” on him while they can. Eventually when Lowe’s and Huddy’s time is up, imagine a rotation of Jurrjens, Hanson, Teheran, Beachy, and Vizcaino with Kimbrel, Venters, O’Flaherty, Delgado, and others coming out of the pen.
Whatever happened to Chip Towers?
July 24th, 2011
6:19 pm
Thanks for the info Scooter
hahaha
July 24th, 2011
6:23 pm
Bama Brave – glad to see that “Bama” education is working for you!!!
“Its not like where low on Pitchers?!” –> “It’s not like we’re low on pitchers.”
War Eagle!
boog
July 24th, 2011
6:24 pm
I think you underestimate MInor. However, that being said, I am not opposed to trading Minor but not for Beltran. What you have failed to recognize Bradley is a much better strategy would be to keep Minor and package him for players that could help us both now and in the future. If you trade Minor for two months I think we lose big time. If you hold out I think you could pkg. him with othe players to get a Pence or someone who we could get several yrs. from. By trading him we vastly weaken our leverage to make further deals that could help now and long term.
Pittsburgh Al
July 24th, 2011
6:25 pm
Beltran would be too expensive and could easily prove to be a bust. And you are giving a team in your Division a player that could haunt you for years. The Braves can live with a defensive CF if they get the production expected from Heyward, Uggla and even Gonzales, (how good would Yunel look at SS now). They are 17 games over 500 without much production from these guys. What they really need, other than that offensive production, is relief pitching. You can’t pitch Venters, Kimbrell & O’Flaherty every night.
jt
July 24th, 2011
6:27 pm
Boog makes more sense than you Mark.
what of it?
July 24th, 2011
6:32 pm
so given the last two “big bats” traded for the farm didn’t work, you just assume he’ll hit the game winning home run in the world series.
You’re assuming all 5 starters will stay healthy the remainder of the year despite already having had JJ on the DL. You also completely neglect the fact that we have no bullpen beyond our 3 studs. this is another knee jerk trade that will disrupt the lineup just like Carlos Lee and Rick Ankiel
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
6:36 pm
Looks there is a CLEAR MAJORITY on here that trading Minor or Beltran is NOT A GOOD IDEA.
now, what that means is that the Braves, being dumb as they are with trades, will in fact trade him.
smallmouth6
July 24th, 2011
6:37 pm
Keep Minor. I wish nothing but the best for Beachy, but I don’t think he has performed any better than Minor would have. We need a lefty.
so al brave fan,
July 24th, 2011
6:38 pm
no no no beltran==== keep minor.
A Brave in Minnesota
July 24th, 2011
6:38 pm
Imagine this Lineup…..
1-Prado (LF)
2-Heyward (RF)
3-Jones (3B
4-McCann (C)
5-Uggla (2B)
6-Freeman (1B)
7-BELTRAN (LF)
8-Gonzalez (SS)
9-(Pitchers Spot or DH)
On The Bench…..
McClouth, Hinske, Schafer, Conrad, Lugo, Ross, Ramirez
…..Now I don’t like renting players as much as the next person, but with a pitching staff, a lineup and bench like that……..sorry Minor, but I hope that you become an outstanding pitcher someday and maybe return to Atlanta someday……but we CANNOT let the Phillies or Giants get Beltran if we plan on winning this thing and we all know it. Minor will be missed, but we gotta go get that bat!!!
David O'Brien
July 24th, 2011
6:42 pm
Mark Bradley is so retarded.
Jake
July 24th, 2011
6:43 pm
You make a good point about Minor, but Beltran’s no bargain, either. He’s brittle, he’s 34 and he’s expensive. Even as a two-month rental, he’s more likely to get hurt than to be a difference maker. I say look elsewhere. Or, for that matter, give Wilkin Ramirez a shot.
cav
July 24th, 2011
6:44 pm
WHAT A IDIOT BELTRAN WOULD NOT BE BATTING 7TH,R U 12 OR 13??
cav
July 24th, 2011
6:44 pm
DAVID OBRIEN CAN SUCK THIS
Wil
July 24th, 2011
6:45 pm
Sorry this would be a terrible trade. Two months of Beltran for Minor? You may not think Minor is good, but if he figures out his third pitch he will be a solid starter. If Beltran could be offered arbitration than you obviously go for it. But since he can’t and the Braves are almost assured not to resign him, you are trading Minor for two months of Beltran. It just isn’t worth it considering the other options out there who are more controllable(Pence/Rasmus etc) and Minor could be a centerpiece of the deal.
Beltran has been just average in RF (his UZR/UZR150 is .3 and .2. If that’s the case in RF, you can only imagine that he would actually be below average in CF. Now I’m not saying stick with Schafer, but Beltran isn’t the answer in CF.
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
6:45 pm
so frank wren if you are thinking the fans want Beltran….no, most of them want MINOR
cav
July 24th, 2011
6:46 pm
AND YES I HAVE TOLD DOB THAT,I CAN SEE WHY HE IS DIVORCED,WORSE WRITER AJC EVER HAS PIECE OF ###
cav
July 24th, 2011
6:47 pm
Beltran is not coming to atl.wren is going dumpster diving expect gomes to sign here
brein128
July 24th, 2011
6:48 pm
Mets have stated that they will pay all of his remaining salary. They also reportedly gave about $5 million to Milwaukee as part of the K-rod deal and they received a favorable ruling in the Madoff proceedings this week that makes it likely that the suit will eventually be decreased from $1 billion to $300 million, so the Mets are not nearly as cash strapped as people are saying.
CHITWOOD
July 24th, 2011
6:48 pm
It’s simple, go get him Braves because if you don’t…the Phillies will!
cave
July 24th, 2011
6:49 pm
i say make the trade,minor is worthless,he is no8 on starters,rem he lost the rotation in spring training,everytime minor pitches,its 3-4 runs every game get rid of this loser now.
5150 UOAD
July 24th, 2011
6:50 pm
Keep Minor and find another bat for less money for a longer time.
bart
July 24th, 2011
6:51 pm
The espn talking heads are drooling at the mouth propping up rumors that might get their beloved muts a real starting pitcher. Consider the source. We need bullpen help worse that another average hitter.
Glenn
July 24th, 2011
6:51 pm
No way, no how. Beltran has already made a comment about his knees holding up the rest of the long season and the playoffs, which is a red flag. Also, why trade a decent pitcher that you won’t even get any future compensation on once Beltran becomes a Free Agent (no Compensatory Picks)?
It seems like since we lost Don Baylor as our Batting Coach, when we make these trade deadline deals, the guys recently who were hitting well before they came to Atlanta pretty much looked like Dan Uggla the first half of this season (Lee & Gonzalez from last season, for example, maybe add in Ankiel).
No, I’ll pass unless you can get someone with more than a two month rental.
Sonny Clusters
July 24th, 2011
6:53 pm
Can Lowe bat again today? Looks like the Braves need him in the lineup to drive in runs. We was disturbed that a certain young Atlanta Brave doesn’t always run hard to first base. With the Reds infielders bobbling the ball all the time a little speed going to first might pay off in a base hit. Running down there like Aunt Alice is a sure way to get thrown out. We was wondering if Proctor is related to the toothpaste people? If so, he should go to work for them.
CHITWOOD
July 24th, 2011
6:53 pm
Let me correct the lineup for you:
1-Prado (LF)
2-Beltran (CF)
3-Chipper (3B)
4-McCann (C)
5-Uggla (2B)
6-Freeman (1B)
7-Heyward (RF)
8-Gonzalez (SS)
9-(Pitchers Spot or DH)
The 5-6-7 spots are flexible and should remain static depending on how each bat is swinging..
cave
July 24th, 2011
6:53 pm
since i know more than most here,yes i do have inside info.,the braves are not going to get beltran.I think the writers at ajc,along with fox sports want higher ratings.Yes the braves were interested in beltran,but are not now.The frontrunner is the giants,then the rangers,and phillies.The astros are asking for 2-3 players and major league ready players at that.I WILL KEEP SAYING THIS OVER AND OVER.FRANK WREN WANTS A RH BAT OFF THE BENCH,WHEN WILL YOU GUYS WAKE UP AND LISTEN??
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
6:54 pm
what is Gonzo not batting 8th in every single lineup
cave
July 24th, 2011
6:56 pm
This is how the braves are now…..
a middle reliever is there top priority
beltran,not
upton not
a rh bat off the bench….YES
Keep dreaming folks with your fantasy lineups cause it aint gonna happen
Jay Dubu
July 24th, 2011
6:58 pm
Beltran has played exactly zero, as 0, games in CF this season. Your rationale is flawed from that aspect.
If he can’t play CF for a team that is not making the playoffs, how will he be able to do it for a team that is tied for the 3rd most wins in all of MLB?
Right now Minor is the next guy up to the majors if the Braves experience a major injury of one of the starters. If he’s gone, who do they bring up? Teheran is not ready yet, and the Braves are already looking to limit his innings pitched.
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
6:59 pm
@cave i hope you are right. i can’t believe they would put this on the front page of the braves page. makes me kinda sick to see Minor’s picture up there JUST to get attention. poor kid. no wonder his confidence is down. his team doesn’t even believe in him.
cave
July 24th, 2011
6:59 pm
braves were interested in beltran when mets said 1 prospect,and they eat the salary.
update……mets want a top prospect,like minor,and a mid level prospect,but also expect team to eat most of the salary,therefore putting braves a slim chance.
frontrunner is sf,texas,phillies.
next topic
Rogie
July 24th, 2011
7:00 pm
The trade looks good on paper but if you look at the Braves roster and the top pitching prospects in their system, Minor is the only left-hander. I wouldn’t trade him, I’d consider someone else. I think if you trade pitching, you trade Beachy. He’s a 5th starter and wouldn’t even be starting in the playoffs. That way, you keep your young arms, Vizcaino, Teheran, and Minor. Also, Kris Medlen comes back next year. The Braves have plenty of talented starting pitching, just not from the left side. Keep Minor.
20 out
July 24th, 2011
7:00 pm
I wouldn’t pull this trade and I don’t think the Mets will anyways. Do you really think they want Minor so bad that they will help the Braves win it all. Also, won’t they have to eat money on this deal? I just don’t think inter-divisional trades of this magnitude are good enough for both teams.
Regarding Braves drafting, well, Keith Law said he about fell out of his chair when he heard that the Braves drafted Gilmartin recently. Another poor pick. Let’s hope they get lucky with something in the later rounds.
On Beachy, I think he’s going to blow up in the second half. Just a hunch, but I don’t see that he fools people enough for him to get past their scouting reports. Is it just me or his pitches just seem targeted, straight and predictable.
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
7:02 pm
let me entertain the delusional people who think Beltran will be a Brave. he has clearly stated that HE WILL NOT BE TRADED AND PLAY CENTER-FIELD. so……to you that think he will take Schafer’s spot you are wrong….it’s Heyward that will be benched. imagine the outcry in atlanta when the beloved Heyward (AKA worst hitter on the team) is benched.
aceinthehole
July 24th, 2011
7:02 pm
I would not do this trade, I think MInor jcould be a good pitcher, he just hasn’t been given a chance to work things out in the Majors. The trade that keeps popping up in my mind was the Jason Schmit for Denny Neagle trade. Neagle did ok for the Braves but he wasn’t Schmit. I think someone said Minor has made 15 starts, that is only a half of season. Tom Glavine and Greg Maddox looked horrible after their first year. I think given the chance Minor could win 15 games a year and have an ERA in the 3s and I would rather he do that for the Braves than for the Mets.
Furman Bitcher
July 24th, 2011
7:02 pm
No to Beltran but yes to trading Minor. Go get a bat and a rh bullpen guy
cave
July 24th, 2011
7:03 pm
braves007
mark did this,braves official website are not even into serious discussions.same thing about lowe last week,all about the ratings.gee wonder what happened to that rumor?lol
Najeh Davenpoop
July 24th, 2011
7:04 pm
I agree that this is a good trade for the Braves, but you didn’t mention the most important reason, which is that the Braves actually have a chance to win a World Series this year if they get another bat. That wasn’t even close to being the case when they made the Teixeira trade.
Largo
July 24th, 2011
7:04 pm
Whatever the braves are going to do, do it. Just keep in mind we NEED someone who can hit left handers and we need a righy out of the bullpin who can give us a GOOD inning or two.
cave
July 24th, 2011
7:05 pm
what?????
5150 UOAD
July 24th, 2011
7:07 pm
We just need to WIN tonight.
cave
July 24th, 2011
7:08 pm
another bat like beltran?ok lets say we accquire beltran,pitch around him to get to the other 5 starters that are battingunder 200 vs lh pitching
whats your excuse then?